Michel Rademaker: Deputy Director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

1. Economic Security and Raw Materials
Why strategy matters
Michel Rademaker
2015-01-30
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2. Exponential Population Growth
• Population by 2050 – 9 billion
• GDP from US$35 to 72 trillion by 2030
• Water demand to increase 30% by 2030
• Energy demand doubled by 2030
• Cereal demand: + 67% by 2050
• Land deficit by 2050 – 200 million ha
• GHG emissions decrease 50-80% by 2050

4. HCSS/TNO conceptual framework
The global resource nexus

5. Government Intervention in Rare Metal Markets
Rare metals are especially prominent in the debate due to:
• Western import dependence & crucial role of China
• indispensability for high- & green-tech applications
• inelasticity & concentration of supply
• fast-growing & highly volatile demand
This creates supply security concerns and makes (some) metals into
“strategic” resources!
The strategic value & political economy of each metal is unique, evolving
rapidly, and …

6. Sovereign Wealth Funds

7. China continues its policy of dominance on REE
Export quotas for the Chinese rare-earth industry (tonnes)
Source: Chinese Ministry of Commerce
Year Period Chinese-owned
Chinese /
Non-Chinese JV
Sub-Total TOTAL
2009
H1 15,043 6,685 21,728
50,145
H2 18,257 10,160 28,417
2010
H1 16,304 5,978 22,282
30,258
H2 6,208 1,768 7,976
2011
H1 10,762 3,746 14,508
30,246
H2 12,221 3,517 15,738
2012
H1 16,066 5,160 21,226
30,996
H2 6,340 3,430 9,770
2013
H1 11,136 4,363 15,499
30,999
H2 11,163 4,337 15,500
2014
H1 10,756 4,354 15,110
30,611
H2 12,036 3,465 15,501
Launch of WTO
case against
China
China-Japan
maritime
incident
31-12-2014
Export
licenses

8. London Metal Exchange LME
Sold in June ‘12 to Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx).
80% of World metal trade
– Former >25 Members club
– Sold at 180 times its annual earnings (1,4 B$)
– Biggest sponsor: China Development Bank, a
policy bank
– Price stability through secret stocks
Now: China 100% owner

9. Chinese, Canadian &
US policy after 2013 regarding REE
• Chinese Participations in several REE locations
• A non-binding China, Greenland MOU of Kvanjefeld
REE
• USA: S-1600 legislation proposal to subsidize a
Billion+ USD to built a separation facility within US
borders
• Resources Quebec Inc., as agent for the Canadian
Government, bought 28% of Kipawa heavy rare
earths deposit

10. Chinese control mechanisms
from buying raw materials to concessions to trading
platforms since 2012
Iron
Hugs
Oil futures
Pan Asian Gold Exchange
Government bond and silver futures
Futures trading in:
• agricultural products
• live hogs
• Late-season rice
• Eggs
• Potatoes

11. COFCO China, the largest grain, oil and foodstuff
company in China has bought 51% Nidera
in feb 2014
• Nidera is a NL based major international agribusiness and trading
company with an annual turnover in excess of USD 17 billion.
• Currently Nidera has domestic and international operations in 21 major
export and import countries and distributes its products to more than 60
countries in the world.
• By consolidating its presence throughout the value chain, Nidera has
created a platform that efficiently connects agricultural producers and
food consumers.

14. For further information
J.G.M. (Michel) Rademaker, MTL
Deputy Director, Market, and Operations
Office +31 70 3184842
Mobile +31 6 24686023
E-mail michelrademaker@hcss.nl
Also find us on
Twitter (hcssnl), LinkedIn
Android or Apple
Visiting and Postal Address
Lange Voorhout 16
2514 EE The Hague
The Netherlands
Europe
15
Wilhelmina van Pruisenweg 104
The Hague, The Netherlands
Europe

15. CV Michel Rademaker
Michel Rademaker is the Deputy Director of HCSS. He has a degree in Transport and Logistics, obtained at the University of
Tilburg. He gained fifteen years of hands-on experience as an officer of The Netherlands Royal Army, where he held various
military operational and staff posts and served a term in former Yugoslavia. After leaving the armed forces, Mr. Rademaker
went on to work at TNO The Netherlands as a project and programme manager and senior policy advisor for ten years. As
NATO RTO project leader, he developed with his teams new serious gaming assessment methods for defence. He conducted
several assessments of security technologies, including disruptive ones, and worked on numerous strategic security topics.
He has written several book chapters, numerous research reports and articles. He served as secretary of the pilot joint
venture TNO Clingendael Centre for Strategic Studies for three years and was one of the co-founders of its successor HCSS.
At HCSS he is responsible for business development. He is particularly interested in setting up multi-stakeholder projects on
new and upcoming security and political economic themes. For example, with his team he supported the development of
the Dutch national security strategy and crisis management exercises.
He is one of the initiators of The Hague Security Delta, the biggest security cluster in Europe, and leads projects for this
cluster.
His fields of expertise include security strategy, policy, concepts and doctrines, technology surveys and assessments, and
serious gaming techniques.
He is also initiator of the RMS Platform and the Centre of Expertise Resources and his fields of expertise include the
geopolitical and economic security implications of raw materials and energy supply; and the development of policies.
He frequently acts as moderator in workshops, as a trainer, as guest lecturer at various universities and speaker in
conferences, and as a commentator in news media.
Follow him on Twitter @michelrademaker
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