Sebastian Tibenham, executive director, and Richard Cook, associate at Pegasus Group look at the Liverpool City Region economy, the Local Plan and progress towards housing targets, at the Place North West Merseyside Development Update on 16 November 2017

1. Merseyside Development
Update
Sebastian Tibenham & Richard Cook

2. Overview of the City Region Economy
• 1.5million peoplePopulation
• 628,000 jobsEmployment
• £29.5billionEconomic
output

3. Challenges for the City Region
◦ Population growth
◦ Entrepreneurship
◦ Skills
◦ Employment growth
◦ Productivity
◦ Delivering a Strategic Planning Framework
◦ Strategic Housing & Employment Land Market Assessment

4. Job Growth Scenarios, 2012-37
Scenario 1
(SHELMA
Baseline)
Scenario 2
(SHELMA
Growth)
Scenario 3
(Pegasus High
Growth)
0.3%
p.a.
0.7%
p.a.
0.9%
p.a.
53,000 jobs
127,000 jobs
160,000 jobs

5. LCR Annual Housing Requirement
• RSS planned from 2003-21 (revoked)
• Only Knowsley & Sefton up to date
Local Plans + allocate sites
• Council evidence shows highest need
• SHELMA: GL Hearn for LCR
• Government’s Standard Calc: Right
Homes in the Right Places.
• Standard Calc based on Household
Projections and uplifts on affordability.
• 2,024 = Av. completions since 2012/13
• 3,420 = starts in 2016-17

6. Liverpool
• RSS - Regional Centre focus (net fig)
• UDP planned up to 2001 and for 23k
homes but demolition of 27k
• Emerging Local Plan someway off
• SHELMA and Standard not far apart
• City Council have been delivering
average of c.1,400 dpa since 2003
• Completed 2,029 in 2015/16
• Other LPAs may have to pick up slack
• Demonstrates importance of LCR Plan

7. Sefton
• RSS restricted supply (lowest).
• Local Plan adopted Apr 17 (highest)
• Allocates some sites / GB release but..
• ..immediate review still necessary.
• Affordability critical issue.
• Hence Standard Calc closer to recently
adopted figure
• SHELMA shows much lower figure

8. Knowsley
• Recently Adopted Plan Jan 2016.
• Inspector’s comments on low figure:
• + out-migration partly due to limited
housing choice;
• + elderly population,
• Significant consequences:
• loss of spending power
• slower growth of local businesses
• extra pressure on health services.
• Local Plan identifies GB housing sites!

9. Halton
• Local Plan adopted 2013
• Applied RSS figure with some
backlog
• Doesn’t identify sites.
• No completion data 15/16 & 16/17
• Failed to deliver?
• 375 Av. Between 03/04 to 14/15
• Carried out GB Study in 2015

10. St Helens
• Local Plan adopted Oct 2012
• Post NPPF but RSS wasn’t revoked
• Didn’t identify sites
• Draft LP welcomed
• GB release + good quantum of
safeguarded land

11. Wirral
• Unitary Development Plan (2000)
• Housing Policies not saved
• Emerging Local Plan someway off
• Previous Draft focus on W.Waters
• Council’s evidence (875-1235 dpa)
• 340 = Av. Completions since 03/04;
• Affluent areas / Affordability issues
• Deprived areas / Regeneration
• Green Belt release required

12. Pegasus thoughts for LCR
◦ Very excited about the prospects within the LCR and potential for our new office
◦ Devolution Deal = handback control, effective spending, fast-track growth?!
◦ Mayor’s Success = economic growth and quality of life?!
◦ Access to jobs and good quality housing
◦ Strategic Planning Role = Difficult Political Decisions
◦ Draft LCR SHELMA presents lowest housing requirement figures (ever)
◦ 1.1% jobs growth up to 2026 but 0.3% thereafter

13. Seb Tibenham / Richard Cook
Suite 4b, 113 Portland Street, Manchester, M1 6DW
E sebastian.tibenham@pegasusgroup.co.uk / richard.cook@pegasusgroup.co.uk
T 0161 393 3399