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The chess-games: Iran and US hold landmark nuclear talks, World powers edge closer to UN deal on Syria
1. The chess-games: Iran and US hold
landmark nuclear talks, World powers
edge closer to UN deal on Syria
Dear Reader,
Politics is like a game of chess and there are a power players and games on the world
stage now.
Let the games begin:
Iran and US hold landmark nuclear talks
Iran and the United States met for one of their highest level meetings since the 1979
revolution on Thursday as their foreign ministers joined landmark talks on Tehran's
nuclear programme.
2. We have anew chess player in Mr. Hassan Rouhani of Iran. His call on eliminating
Chemical Weapon will fall on deaf ear, because the super powers will not relinquish their
weapons, maybe, minimise it slightly. If they do, they won’t be super powers anymore.
It is a good move that there are talks taken place, now we would like to see some
actions on all parties.
Tensions between Iran and the West could pave the way to some positive movement in
getting the parties in Syria to talk. Pres. Rouhani already committed themselves to
become part of such a process.
There is actually one major problem. The Al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria rejected
any alliance with rest of the Opposition groups. The call for an Islamic Republic.
Another chess-game is on.
Although the World powers edge closer to UN deal on Syria. UN Security Council
members edged closer on Thursday to a resolution reinforcing a US-Russian deal under
which President Bashar al-Assad's Syrian government will hand over its chemical
weapons, the chemical weapons in the hands of the Al-Qaeda linked groups will not be
part of such an agreement. What will the world do about these groups? Since there is
tension between Opposition groups, how will any agreement from outside, be of any
value.
Al-Qaeda linked groups could have the upper-hand in any moves towards check-mate.
Who will be check-mated? Who will have the winners? Will all the role-players be able to
play different chess games?
What influence has these chess games on the markets?
Since the Middle-east is about Israel, and oil, I’ll concentrate on Crude oil, leaving Israel
out this time.
Iran's return to the oil market could trigger a “positive supply shock,” sending oil prices
plunging by as much as US$20 per barrel, although Saudi Arabia will probably move
swiftly to ensure a softer, $10-drop in crude prices.
3. President Obama is reported to have restored the dialog with Iran and is said to be going
to promote the cancelation of all the sanctions imposed on Iran. If the sanctions are
cancelled, what will be the impact on crude oil prices worldwide?
Some experts say that the major reason why top-ranking US politicians have changed
their minds on Syria and Iran is crude oil. They say the USA needs lower oil prices. One
of the reasons for that is the necessity to undermine Russia’s economic stability (since
Russia is a major oil and natural gas exporter and its economy is based on those
exports).
Since Monday, crude oil prices have been going down again. Apparently, the major
reason is the fact that investors are less concerned about a possible US-led military
operation in Syria, which may destabilize the situation in the entire Middle East. Another
reason is a production increase in Libya.
The price of November futures on Brent Crude Oil is down by 1,58% to 103,59 per barrel.
The price of October futures on WTI is down by 0,49% to 104,23 per barrel.
Iran is a sleeping energy giant, sitting on the fourth-largest oil reserves and the second-
largest natural gas reserves in the world. Its energy infrastructure, although suffering,
can still sputter out more oil quickly if sanctions ease.
I favoured a Crude Oil weakness, but we can expect a few upward movements. Al
depends on the various games
In the mean-time another chess-game at play: The dollar fell and global equities
markets continued to struggle on Wednesday as concerns over a potential government
shutdown in Washington kept investors cautious, even as another vote looms on raising
the U.S.
The games are played by people of power and influence, and it is critical that peace and
not power will be the exit strategy.
“Have a peaceful, purposeful, happy and profitable day”
4. Pierre A Pienaar
Xcelwealth Store - Business & Investing
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