Oil and Gas Labour Outlook 2022
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
0 likes•399 views
This presentation was given on November 27, 2014 at the Western Canada Employer Educator Oil & Gas forum. This slide deck gives an overview of the Council's labour market outlooks for Canada, as well as a closer look at the oil sands sector.
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
Viewers also liked
Similar to Oil and Gas Labour Outlook 2022
Similar to Oil and Gas Labour Outlook 2022 (20)
More from PetroLMI
More from PetroLMI (15)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (16)
Oil and Gas Labour Outlook 2022
- 1. The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry November 27, 2014 Cheryl Knight, Special Advisor, Petroleum Human Resources Council Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
- 2. Agenda • Introduction • Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry Labour Market Outlook to 2022 • A Closer Look at Workforce Needs in the Oil Sands Sector • Recommended Workforce Solutions www.petrohrsc.ca 2 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 3. Business Trends Impacting Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry • Attraction of investment – Oil sands, especially in situ – Liquefied natural gas (LNG) – Shale/conventional oil – Hebron offshore project • Joint ventures with Asian companies – Longer-term view of development and learning opportunity • Downside risks – Single customer market (US) – Lack of infrastructure to support market diversification – Skill shortages www.petrohrsc.ca 3 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 4. Oil and Gas Industry Activity – Two Scenarios www.petrohrsc.ca 4 Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario Market diversification does not occur • Growth is driven by North American demand • Moderate increases to conventional oil and oil sands production • Continued focus on liquids-rich natural gas Market diversification occurs • Canadian producers supply international markets • Debottleneck/expansion of oil pipelines • Development of LNG export facilities and pipelines www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 5. Occupations with Greatest Net Hiring Requirements to 2022 TEN OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS* TO 2022 (# of job openings Low Growth – Expansion) Industry Total (62,440 – 84,030 ) 1 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators) 2,945 – 4,105 2 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,425 – 3,990 3 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers 2,945 – 3,985 4 Drilling coordinators/production managers 3,050 – 3,945 5 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 2,930 – 3,640 6 Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers 2,415 – 3,480 7 Petroleum engineers 2,150 – 2,910 8 Truck drivers 2,200 – 2,825 9 Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators 1,860 – 2,590 10 Geologists and geophysicists 1,715 – 2,305 www.petrohrsc.ca 5 *Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + age-related attrition (excludes non-retirement turnover) www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 6. Occupations with Above-Average Age-Related Attrition Rates OCCUPATION www.petrohrsc.ca 6 AVERAGE AGE OF THE LABOUR FORCE TEN-YEAR AVERAGE AGE-RELATED ATTRITION RATE Industry Total 40 23% Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 44 32% Drilling coordinators/production managers 44 31% Geologists and geophysicists 44 29% Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 42 29% Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety 42 29% Purchasing agents and officers 42 28% Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 43 27% Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 40 26% Petroleum engineers and crane operators 42 25% Project engineers and industrial electricians 41 25% Drafting technologists and technicians 40 25% Petroleum/mining/geological engineering technologists 38 25% Civil engineers 42 24% Electrical/instrumentation engineers 40 24% Instrumentation engineering technologists 39 24% Power engineers (or steam-ticketed operators) 38 24% www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 7. Long-Term Hiring Outlook (2013 – 2022) Total recruitment activity over the next decade ranges between 125,000 and 150,000 to meet industry activity, age-related attrition and a 3 per cent non-retirement turnover. www.petrohrsc.ca 7 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 8. Provincial Analysis: Employment and Net Hiring www.petrohrsc.ca 8 British Columbia (BC) Alberta (AB) 2012 employment = 12,000 workers Low growth scenario net hiring = 3,100 openings (26 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario net hiring = 4,100 openings (34 percent of 2012 employment) 2012 employment = 160,000 workers Low growth scenario net hiring = 53,800 openings (34 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario net hiring = 72,700 openings (45 percent of 2012 employment) Saskatchewan (SK) Rest of Canada (RoC) 2012 employment = 11,600 workers Low growth scenario net hiring = 2,600 openings (22 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario net hiring = 3,500 openings (30 percent of 2012 employment) 2012 employment = 12,200 workers Low growth scenario net hiring = 2,900 openings (24 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario net hiring = 3,800 openings (31 percent of 2012 employment) www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 9. Employment Impacts of Oil and Gas Investment and Activities to 2022 Investments and activities by the oil and gas industry benefit all Canadians. www.petrohrsc.ca 9 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 10. Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2023 Over the next decade, oil sands operations is projected to add 15,300 new jobs – with employment estimated at 41,900 workers by 2023. www.petrohrsc.ca 10 E = Estimated; F = Forecasted www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 11. Occupations with Greatest Job Increases due to Industry Activity Power engineers and heavy equipment operators account for close to 30 per cent of new jobs created between 2014 and 2023. www.petrohrsc.ca 11 TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST JOB INCREASES DUE TO INDUSTRY ACTIVITY TO 2023 Total Oil Sands Operations 15,330 Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 2,895 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 1,470 Petroleum engineers (2145) 825 Engineering managers (0211) 660 Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 555 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 495 Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 465 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 405 Mechanical engineers (2132) 375 Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 325 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 12. Managerial Occupations Retirements amongst managers and supervisors will lead to a loss of knowledge, experience and mentoring capacity and will have a negative impact on workforce development and productivity. www.petrohrsc.ca 12 MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82% 1 Purchasing managers (0113) 125% 2 Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations (7201) 100% 3 Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 97% 4 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (7301) 95% 5 Engineering managers (0211) 94% 6 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91% 7 Construction managers (0711) 91% 8 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations (7202) 88% www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 13. Supply Chain Occupations Needed for Expansion and Production Oil sands investment and accelerated growth are driving demand for oil and gas services, materials, equipment manufacturing and rentals, contracted professional and technical services and the need for supply chain management, procurement and logistics occupations. www.petrohrsc.ca 13 SUPPLY CHAIN OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82% Purchasing managers (0113) 125% Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 118% Shippers and receivers (1521) 95% Purchasing and inventory control workers (1524) 94% Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91% www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 14. Demand-driven Workforce Solutions Given the global competitiveness for skilled workers, industry must continue working with government, education and training institutions and other labour supply stakeholders to increase the talent pool for the oil and gas industry. www.petrohrsc.ca 14 www.careersinoilandgas.com
- 15. Check out www.careersinoilandgas.com to sign up for our e-Newsletter Find us on social media: @PetroHRCouncil @CareersInOandG facebook.com/careersinoilandgas slideshare.net/PetroHRCouncil 15 www.petrohrsc.ca Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Editor's Notes
- Acknowledge funders Government of Canada (HRSDC) CAPP
- Canada’s oil and gas industry continued to attract investment throughout 2012 Oil sands development increased, especially in situ operations Interest and investment in the development of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export sector in northwestern BC Hebron offshore oil project moved into the development and construction phase – expected to be in production in 2017 – in offshore Newfoundland and Labrador Joint ventures with Asian companies created a more stable business environment Asian companies are looking to learn from leading Canadian industry and O&G companies Look for secure future oil and gas supply Market diversification and a greater global presence is critical to sustainable growth within Canada’s oil and gas industry. Widespread use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing for natural gas and conventional oil reserves in the U.S. Industry and governments are looking for market diversification and an increased global presence for its oil and natural gas Skill shortages are also a risk to the industry’s sustainability Canada’s O&G industry will face more job openings due to age-related attrition than due to industry activity growth (or expansion) Fierce Competition for experienced workers Demand-driven solutions for workforce concerns are required to develop a larger pool of qualified workers
- Two potential industry activity scenarios Same oil and gas price forecasts (FirstEnergy Capital Corporation) Different expenditure forecasts based on assumptions regarding activity and pace of expansion (FirstEnergy Capital Corporation) Different oil sands production forecasts (CAPP’s Crude Oil Market Outlook (2012) Low Growth scenario North American demand for natural gas will come from oil sands, power generation, and transportation Expansion scenario The BC natural gas industry will see the biggest impact and benefits from this potential scenario
- Total hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + hiring due to age-related attrition + hiring due to non-retirement turnover Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + hiring due to age-related attrition Non-retirement turnover rate was assumed to be 3% overall (industry-validated figure) Non-retirement turnover varies by sector and by occupation Companies are reporting turnover rates exceeding 50 percent for entry-level drilling and service occupations Net hiring requirements should be regarded as minimum hiring requirements Numbers have been rounded for readability
- These occupations may also experience skill shortages Age related attrition rates are higher than the industry average of 23%
- Hiring Due to Industry Activity Low growth scenario = 18,300 openings (9 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario = 38,700 openings (20 percent of 2012 employment) Hiring Due to Age-Related Attrition Low growth scenario = 44,200 openings (22 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario = 45,300 openings (23 percent of 2012 employment) Net Hiring Requirements Low growth scenario = 62,500 openings (32 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario = 84,000 openings (43 percent of 2012 employment) Hiring Due to Workforce Competition/Non-Retirement Turnover Low growth scenario = 62,600 openings (32 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario = 65,800 openings (34 per cent of 2012 employment) Total hiring requirements (direct operations employment) Low growth scenario = 125,100 openings (64 percent of 2012 employment) Expansion scenario = 149,800 openings (77 per cent of 2012 employment)
- British Columbia Even though natural gas prices are low, foreign investment and liquids-rich natural gas plays have kept BC’s oil and gas industry busy The province is at a turning point as stakeholders wait to see if the development of an LNG export sector proceeds Alberta – Greatest Need Developing technology allows companies to undertake new exploration and rework old wells. Alberta’s oil sands are expected to expand at a sustainable rate (but growth may be impeded by market and transportation constraints) Approximately 90% of the oil and gas jobs in the province will result from investments and activities in Alberta The other 10% are for head office roles generated due to activity in BC and SK Saskatchewan Growth in the Bakken shale oil formation Thermal technology used to enhance heavy oil production is boosting activity around Lloydminster Activity is expected to increase over the next couple of years, regardless of scenario Approximately 40% of jobs generated by activities in Saskatchewan are for head office roles and were allocated to Alberta Rest of Canada Manitoba oil production from the Bakken shale oil formation Nova Scotia offshore natural gas Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil
- By 2022 Canada’s oil and gas industry is estimated to support 894,100 to 1,036,100 direct, indirect and induced workers across Canada. 213,000 to 224,400 direct operations workers 413,400 to 505,300 indirect industry workers Construction Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Professional, scientific and technical services Waste management and remediation services Financial, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing services Induced employment of 267,700 to 306,400 workers in the broader economy For every direct job created within oil and gas industry operations, three jobs are created outside of the industry. 80 percent of those jobs are expected to be in Western Canada (65 percent in Alberta)
- By 2023, oil sands operations employment is projected to increase by 58 per cent, creating about 15,330 new operations jobs for total employment of about 41,880. From 2014 to 2023, the growth rate of the in situ workforce significantly outpaces mining and upgrading as the majority of investment and production increases are attributed to in situ operations. In situ operations will almost double today’s employment by adding 10,610 jobs for a total workforce of approximately 22,320. By 2023, in situ operations will employ 53 per cent of the direct oil sands workforce. Mining operations is expected to add 4,290 new jobs for a total workforce of approximately 13,880 by 2023. Upgrading operations will add 430 jobs, for a total workforce of approximately 5,680.
- In addition to the top 10 listed above, other occupations in oil sands operations are growing faster than the sector average of 58 per cent. Reasons for the above average-growth vary according to the occupation: Increases have occurred within the technical and stakeholder relations occupations focused on environmental standards and obtaining social license. The rapid increase in supply chain occupations reflects the oil sands operations sector’s heavy use of a contracted or contingent workforce and its focus on cost management during ongoing expansion. Scheduling and logistics specialists are becoming increasingly important for the transfer of people. Most oil sands operations need to move workers back and forth from their places of accommodation to their job sites. The continued shift towards in situ production drives increases in occupations such as water treatment operators, power engineers, petroleum engineers and geoscientists. The growth in technologist and technician occupations is attributed to the increasing number of oil sands operations projects that are transitioning from the start-up phase to the sustainable operations phase.
- Succession planning for managerial roles, career development for technical roles and strategic recruiting will be essential, given the high rates of net hiring for a number of critical oil sands operations occupations.
- Contracted truck and rail transportation occupations are indirect oil sands employment and therefore are not included in the employment projections.
- Collaboration, on-going dialogue, and a commitment to innovation and outside-the-box thinking Attract workers from provinces with higher unemployment rates New Canadians Youth and new grads who may not be able to find employment in their home provinces Workers from other industries with transferable skills Enhance mobility of transferable skills and qualifications across industries and Canada Companies can do their part by offering rotation schedules, and accommodation and transportation support that are attractive to workers from across Canada. Develop a more effective and efficient education and training system Increase high school completion rates Increase youth enrolment in relevant post-secondary training Undertake effective program planning and alignment of post-secondary training with industry needs Increase energy literacy and industry career awareness across Canada Overcome misconceptions and negative perceptions Educate Canadians about the direct and indirect employment opportunities and how to access them Educate Canadians about how the industry works and what it is doing to improve its environmental performance Increase apprenticeship opportunities, with employers taking on more apprentices. While “Canadians first” should be top priority, temporary foreign workers are a solution for filling temporary assignments Economic immigration programs can be utilized to address labour and skill shortages within industry-specific occupations
- Current LMI products can be downloaded through www.careersinoilandgas.com (login/subscription required, free of charge). Free LMI webinars are scheduled regularly. For additional presentations (web-based or in-person), please fill out a presentation request form on our website, under “Contact Us.” Detailed data for all 56 core and other occupations are available in the Oil Sands Labour Demand Outlook to 2023 detailed spreadsheets available for download on www.careersinoilandgas.com.