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‫خدا‬ ‫نام‬ ‫به‬
‫درس‬ ‫نام‬:‫مصنوعی‬ ‫عصبی‬ ‫های‬ ‫شبکه‬
‫درس‬ ‫استاد‬:‫المدرسی‬ ‫دکتر‬ ‫آقای‬ ‫جناب‬
‫گردآورنده‬:‫شهرضا‬ ‫صمدی‬ ‫نازنین‬
1
PH:
‫هاش‬ ‫پ‬ ‫یا‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬(‫انگلیسی‬ ‫به‬:PH,‫مخفف‬potential of hydrogen)‫کمیت‬ ‫یک‬
‫کند‬ ‫می‬ ‫مشخص‬ ‫را‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫بودن‬ ‫بازی‬ ‫یا‬ ‫اسیدی‬ ‫میزان‬ ‫که‬ ‫است‬ ‫لگاریتمی‬.‫آبز‬ ‫بیشتر‬‫فقط‬ ‫یان‬
‫بین‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬ ‫در‬5‫تا‬9‫مانند‬ ‫می‬ ‫زنده‬.
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23
‫تاریخچه‬ ‫و‬ ‫تعریف‬:
‫ای‬‫ویژه‬ ‫اهمیت‬ ‫شیمیایی‬ ‫صنایع‬ ‫صاحبان‬ ‫از‬ ‫برخی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫نوزدهم‬ ‫سده‬ ‫اواخر‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫بررسی‬‫پیدا‬
‫کرد‬.‫است‬ ‫الزم‬ ‫و‬ ‫گذارد‬‫می‬ ‫اثر‬ ‫مخمرها‬ ‫فعالیت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تخمیر‬ ‫فرایند‬ ‫طول‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫به‬‫که‬
‫گیرد‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫بررسی‬ ‫مورد‬ ً‫ا‬‫دایم‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬.‫بس‬ ‫عددی‬ ً‫ال‬‫معمو‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫چون‬ ‫طرفی‬ ‫از‬‫یار‬
‫سال‬ ‫در‬ ‫دانمارکی‬ ‫دانشمند‬ ‫ن‬ِ‫س‬ ‫ن‬ ِ‫سور‬ ‫بار‬ ‫نخستین‬ ،‫است‬ ‫دشوار‬ ‫آن‬ ‫با‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫کار‬ ‫و‬ ‫است‬ ‫کوچک‬۱۹۰۹‫میالدی‬
‫نام‬ ‫به‬ ‫مقیاسی‬pH‫را‬‫کرد‬ ‫بنا‬.،‫تعریف‬ ‫به‬ ‫بنا‬pH‫برابر‬‫مبنای‬ ‫لگاریتم‬ ‫منفی‬۱۰‫فعال‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫مولی‬ ‫غلظت‬
‫است‬ ‫محلول‬ ‫در‬.
‫اتاق‬ ‫دمای‬ ‫در‬(pH (298K‫آب‬‫را‬ ‫خالص‬۷‫گیریم‬‫می‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫در‬.‫آب‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدرونیم‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫دما‬ ‫این‬ ‫در‬ ‫زیرا‬
‫برابر‬ ‫خالص‬۷-۱۰‫است‬.
‫دمای‬ ‫در‬‫اتاق‬ٔ‫ه‬‫باز‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫گستر‬pH‫از‬(۱۴~۰)‫است‬.‫ترین‬‫اسیدی‬ ‫صفر‬ ‫عدد‬‫عدد‬ ‫و‬ ‫محیط‬۱۴‫را‬ ‫محیط‬ ‫ترین‬‫بازی‬
‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫مشخص‬.‫با‬ ‫محلولی‬ ،‫دمایی‬ ‫چنین‬ ‫در‬pH = 7‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫گرفته‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫در‬ ‫خنثی‬.
ٔ‫ه‬‫باز‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫گستر‬ ،‫دما‬ ‫بردن‬ ‫باال‬ ‫با‬pH‫کمتر‬‫شود‬‫می‬.‫در‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫برای‬‫دمای‬K358‫این‬‫به‬ ‫بازه‬(۱۳~۰)‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫تغییر‬.
‫با‬ ‫محلولی‬ ،‫دمایی‬ ‫چنین‬ ‫در‬ ‫نتیجه‬ ‫در‬pH=5,6‫کرد‬ ‫خواهیم‬ ‫فرض‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫را‬.
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23
‫تنظیم‬PH‫فاضالب‬:
‫تنظیم‬ph‫فاضالب‬‫ت‬ ‫زحمت‬ ‫پر‬ ‫از‬ ‫یکی‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫تصفیه‬ ‫پیش‬ ‫حین‬ ‫در‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫عملیات‬ ‫در‬‫رین‬
‫باشد‬ ‫می‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫تصفیه‬ ‫های‬ ‫سیستم‬ ‫ساخت‬ ‫در‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫کارهای‬.‫ارتباط‬‫بین‬PH‫و‬‫معرف‬ ‫جریان‬ ‫یا‬ ‫غلظت‬
‫قوی‬ ‫اسید‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫برای‬-‫به‬ ‫قوی‬ ‫باز‬‫ویژه‬‫رسیدن‬ ‫هنگام‬‫به‬PH=7‫غیرخطی‬ ‫کامال‬‫است‬.‫منحنی‬ ‫ماهیت‬
‫کنترل‬ ‫از‬ ‫اطمینان‬ ‫منظور‬ ‫به‬ ‫تیتراسیون‬‫دقیق‬PH‫چند‬‫کند‬ ‫می‬ ‫ایجاب‬ ‫را‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫ای‬ ‫مرحله‬.‫حین‬ ‫در‬ ‫زیر‬ ‫نکات‬
‫تنظیم‬ph‫فاضالب‬‫توجه‬ ‫قابل‬‫است‬:
‫سرعت‬ ‫با‬ ‫تواند‬ ‫می‬ ‫ورودی‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬۱‫واحد‬PH‫در‬‫نماید‬ ‫تغییر‬ ‫دقیقه‬.
‫شود‬ ‫برابر‬ ‫دو‬ ‫دقیقه‬ ‫چند‬ ‫عرض‬ ‫در‬ ‫تواند‬ ‫می‬ ‫جریان‬ ‫شدت‬ ‫نرخ‬.
‫گردد‬ ‫مخلوط‬ ‫کوتاه‬ ‫مدتی‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫مایع‬ ‫از‬ ‫عظیمی‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫با‬ ‫کامل‬ ‫طور‬ ‫به‬ ‫باید‬ ‫معرف‬ ‫کمی‬ ‫نسبتا‬ ‫مقدار‬.
‫است‬ ‫مزیت‬ ‫دارای‬ ‫شیمیایی‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫تدریجی‬ ‫افزودن‬ ‫معموال‬.
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23
‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬(time series:)
‫گذش‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫دوره‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫شود‬ ‫بینی‬‫پیش‬ ‫است‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫که‬ ‫متغیری‬ ‫به‬ ‫مربوط‬ ‫شده‬ ‫آوری‬‫جمع‬ ‫آمار‬ ‫به‬ ،‫علم‬ ‫هر‬ ‫در‬‫ته‬
‫گویند‬‫می‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ً‫ا‬‫اصطالح‬ ،‫است‬ ‫موجود‬.‫است‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫از‬ ‫ای‬‫مجموعه‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫یک‬ ‫از‬ ‫منظور‬
‫باشند‬ ‫شده‬ ‫آوری‬‫جمع‬ ‫منظمی‬ ‫و‬ ‫مساوی‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫فواصل‬ ‫در‬ ‫که‬.‫را‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫گونه‬ ‫این‬ ‫که‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫روش‬
‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫نامیده‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫سری‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫های‬‫روش‬ ‫هد‬‫می‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫مورد‬.‫ط‬ ‫شرکت‬ ‫یک‬ ‫فصلی‬ ‫فروش‬ ‫مانند‬‫سه‬ ‫ی‬
‫گذشته‬ ‫سال‬.‫باشند‬ ‫شده‬ ‫مرتب‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫اساس‬ ‫بر‬ ‫که‬ ‫ست‬ ‫مشاهداتی‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫مجموع‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫یک‬.‫آن‬ ‫های‬‫مثال‬‫در‬‫اق‬‫تصاد‬
‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫دیده‬ ‫مهندسی‬ ‫های‬‫رشته‬ ‫حتی‬ ‫و‬.‫آم‬ ‫از‬ ‫مهمی‬ ‫قسمت‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سریهای‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫و‬ ‫تجزیه‬ ‫روشهای‬ ‫بخصوص‬‫ار‬
‫دهد‬‫می‬ ‫تشکیل‬ ‫را‬.
5
23
‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬(‫ادامه‬: )
‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫اجزاء‬:
Trend -
Seasonality -
Fluctuation -
‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫سری‬ ‫وتحلیل‬ ‫تجزیه‬ ‫اهداف‬:
‫کرد‬ ‫بندی‬‫رده‬ ‫زیر‬ ‫صورت‬ ‫به‬ ‫را‬ ‫اهداف‬ ‫توان‬‫می‬:
_‫توصیف‬_‫تشریح‬
_‫کنترل‬_‫بینی‬ ‫پیش‬
6
23
NARX
 Nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input
‫ورودی‬ ‫با‬ ‫خودکار‬ ‫غیرخطی‬ ‫عصبی‬ ‫شبکه‬‫خارجی‬
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% Solve an Autoregression Problem with External Input with a NARX Neural Network
% Script generated by Neural Time Series app
% Created 19-Dec-2017 00:39:41
%
% This script assumes these variables are defined:
%
% phInputs - input time series.
% phTargets - feedback time series.
19
23
X = phInputs;
T = phTargets;
% Choose a Training Function
% For a list of all training functions type: help nntrain
% 'trainlm' is usually fastest.
% 'trainbr' takes longer but may be better for challenging problems.
% 'trainscg' uses less memory. Suitable in low memory situations.
trainFcn = 'trainlm'; % Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation.
% Create a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with External Input
inputDelays = 1:2;
feedbackDelays = 1:2;
hiddenLayerSize = 10;
net = narxnet(inputDelays,feedbackDelays,hiddenLayerSize,'open',trainFcn);
20
23
% Prepare the Data for Training and Simulation
% The function PREPARETS prepares timeseries data for a particular network,
% shifting time by the minimum amount to fill input states and layer
% states. Using PREPARETS allows you to keep your original time series data
% unchanged, while easily customizing it for networks with differing
% numbers of delays, with open loop or closed loop feedback modes.
[x,xi,ai,t] = preparets(net,X,{},T);
% Setup Division of Data for Training, Validation, Testing
net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100;
net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100;
net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100;
% Train the Network
[net,tr] = train(net,x,t,xi,ai);
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23
% Test the Network
y = net(x,xi,ai);
e = gsubtract(t,y);
performance = perform(net,t,y)
% View the Network
view(net)
% Plots
% Uncomment these lines to enable various plots.
%figure, plotperform(tr)
%figure, plottrainstate(tr)
%figure, ploterrhist(e)
%figure, plotregression(t,y)
%figure, plotresponse(t,y)
%figure, ploterrcorr(e)
%figure, plotinerrcorr(x,e)
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% Closed Loop Network
% Use this network to do multi-step prediction.
% The function CLOSELOOP replaces the feedback input with a direct
% connection from the outout layer.
netc = closeloop(net);
netc.name = [net.name ' - Closed Loop'];
view(netc)
[xc,xic,aic,tc] = preparets(netc,X,{},T);
yc = netc(xc,xic,aic);
closedLoopPerformance = perform(net,tc,yc)
23
23
% Step-Ahead Prediction Network
% For some applications it helps to get the prediction a timestep early.
% The original network returns predicted y(t+1) at the same time it is
% given y(t+1). For some applications such as decision making, it would
% help to have predicted y(t+1) once y(t) is available, but before the
% actual y(t+1) occurs. The network can be made to return its output a
% timestep early by removing one delay so that its minimal tap delay is now
% 0 instead of 1. The new network returns the same outputs as the original
% network, but outputs are shifted left one timestep.
nets = removedelay(net);
nets.name = [net.name ' - Predict One Step Ahead'];
view(nets)
[xs,xis,ais,ts] = preparets(nets,X,{},T);
ys = nets(xs,xis,ais);
stepAheadPerformance = perform(nets,ts,ys)
Neural network ph neutralization

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Neural network ph neutralization

  • 1. ‫خدا‬ ‫نام‬ ‫به‬ ‫درس‬ ‫نام‬:‫مصنوعی‬ ‫عصبی‬ ‫های‬ ‫شبکه‬ ‫درس‬ ‫استاد‬:‫المدرسی‬ ‫دکتر‬ ‫آقای‬ ‫جناب‬ ‫گردآورنده‬:‫شهرضا‬ ‫صمدی‬ ‫نازنین‬ 1
  • 2. PH: ‫هاش‬ ‫پ‬ ‫یا‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬(‫انگلیسی‬ ‫به‬:PH,‫مخفف‬potential of hydrogen)‫کمیت‬ ‫یک‬ ‫کند‬ ‫می‬ ‫مشخص‬ ‫را‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫بودن‬ ‫بازی‬ ‫یا‬ ‫اسیدی‬ ‫میزان‬ ‫که‬ ‫است‬ ‫لگاریتمی‬.‫آبز‬ ‫بیشتر‬‫فقط‬ ‫یان‬ ‫بین‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬ ‫در‬5‫تا‬9‫مانند‬ ‫می‬ ‫زنده‬. 2 23
  • 3. ‫تاریخچه‬ ‫و‬ ‫تعریف‬: ‫ای‬‫ویژه‬ ‫اهمیت‬ ‫شیمیایی‬ ‫صنایع‬ ‫صاحبان‬ ‫از‬ ‫برخی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫نوزدهم‬ ‫سده‬ ‫اواخر‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫بررسی‬‫پیدا‬ ‫کرد‬.‫است‬ ‫الزم‬ ‫و‬ ‫گذارد‬‫می‬ ‫اثر‬ ‫مخمرها‬ ‫فعالیت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تخمیر‬ ‫فرایند‬ ‫طول‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫به‬‫که‬ ‫گیرد‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫بررسی‬ ‫مورد‬ ً‫ا‬‫دایم‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬.‫بس‬ ‫عددی‬ ً‫ال‬‫معمو‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫چون‬ ‫طرفی‬ ‫از‬‫یار‬ ‫سال‬ ‫در‬ ‫دانمارکی‬ ‫دانشمند‬ ‫ن‬ِ‫س‬ ‫ن‬ ِ‫سور‬ ‫بار‬ ‫نخستین‬ ،‫است‬ ‫دشوار‬ ‫آن‬ ‫با‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫کار‬ ‫و‬ ‫است‬ ‫کوچک‬۱۹۰۹‫میالدی‬ ‫نام‬ ‫به‬ ‫مقیاسی‬pH‫را‬‫کرد‬ ‫بنا‬.،‫تعریف‬ ‫به‬ ‫بنا‬pH‫برابر‬‫مبنای‬ ‫لگاریتم‬ ‫منفی‬۱۰‫فعال‬ ‫هیدروژن‬ ‫یون‬ ‫مولی‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫است‬ ‫محلول‬ ‫در‬. ‫اتاق‬ ‫دمای‬ ‫در‬(pH (298K‫آب‬‫را‬ ‫خالص‬۷‫گیریم‬‫می‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫در‬.‫آب‬ ‫در‬ ‫هیدرونیم‬ ‫یون‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫دما‬ ‫این‬ ‫در‬ ‫زیرا‬ ‫برابر‬ ‫خالص‬۷-۱۰‫است‬. ‫دمای‬ ‫در‬‫اتاق‬ٔ‫ه‬‫باز‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫گستر‬pH‫از‬(۱۴~۰)‫است‬.‫ترین‬‫اسیدی‬ ‫صفر‬ ‫عدد‬‫عدد‬ ‫و‬ ‫محیط‬۱۴‫را‬ ‫محیط‬ ‫ترین‬‫بازی‬ ‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫مشخص‬.‫با‬ ‫محلولی‬ ،‫دمایی‬ ‫چنین‬ ‫در‬pH = 7‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫گرفته‬ ‫نظر‬ ‫در‬ ‫خنثی‬. ٔ‫ه‬‫باز‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫گستر‬ ،‫دما‬ ‫بردن‬ ‫باال‬ ‫با‬pH‫کمتر‬‫شود‬‫می‬.‫در‬ ‫مثال‬ ‫برای‬‫دمای‬K358‫این‬‫به‬ ‫بازه‬(۱۳~۰)‫کند‬‫می‬ ‫تغییر‬. ‫با‬ ‫محلولی‬ ،‫دمایی‬ ‫چنین‬ ‫در‬ ‫نتیجه‬ ‫در‬pH=5,6‫کرد‬ ‫خواهیم‬ ‫فرض‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫را‬. 3 23
  • 4. ‫تنظیم‬PH‫فاضالب‬: ‫تنظیم‬ph‫فاضالب‬‫ت‬ ‫زحمت‬ ‫پر‬ ‫از‬ ‫یکی‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫تصفیه‬ ‫پیش‬ ‫حین‬ ‫در‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫عملیات‬ ‫در‬‫رین‬ ‫باشد‬ ‫می‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫تصفیه‬ ‫های‬ ‫سیستم‬ ‫ساخت‬ ‫در‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫کارهای‬.‫ارتباط‬‫بین‬PH‫و‬‫معرف‬ ‫جریان‬ ‫یا‬ ‫غلظت‬ ‫قوی‬ ‫اسید‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫خنثی‬ ‫برای‬-‫به‬ ‫قوی‬ ‫باز‬‫ویژه‬‫رسیدن‬ ‫هنگام‬‫به‬PH=7‫غیرخطی‬ ‫کامال‬‫است‬.‫منحنی‬ ‫ماهیت‬ ‫کنترل‬ ‫از‬ ‫اطمینان‬ ‫منظور‬ ‫به‬ ‫تیتراسیون‬‫دقیق‬PH‫چند‬‫کند‬ ‫می‬ ‫ایجاب‬ ‫را‬ ‫کردن‬ ‫ای‬ ‫مرحله‬.‫حین‬ ‫در‬ ‫زیر‬ ‫نکات‬ ‫تنظیم‬ph‫فاضالب‬‫توجه‬ ‫قابل‬‫است‬: ‫سرعت‬ ‫با‬ ‫تواند‬ ‫می‬ ‫ورودی‬ ‫فاضالب‬ ‫اچ‬ ‫پی‬۱‫واحد‬PH‫در‬‫نماید‬ ‫تغییر‬ ‫دقیقه‬. ‫شود‬ ‫برابر‬ ‫دو‬ ‫دقیقه‬ ‫چند‬ ‫عرض‬ ‫در‬ ‫تواند‬ ‫می‬ ‫جریان‬ ‫شدت‬ ‫نرخ‬. ‫گردد‬ ‫مخلوط‬ ‫کوتاه‬ ‫مدتی‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫مایع‬ ‫از‬ ‫عظیمی‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫با‬ ‫کامل‬ ‫طور‬ ‫به‬ ‫باید‬ ‫معرف‬ ‫کمی‬ ‫نسبتا‬ ‫مقدار‬. ‫است‬ ‫مزیت‬ ‫دارای‬ ‫شیمیایی‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫تدریجی‬ ‫افزودن‬ ‫معموال‬. 4 23
  • 5. ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬(time series:) ‫گذش‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫دوره‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫شود‬ ‫بینی‬‫پیش‬ ‫است‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫که‬ ‫متغیری‬ ‫به‬ ‫مربوط‬ ‫شده‬ ‫آوری‬‫جمع‬ ‫آمار‬ ‫به‬ ،‫علم‬ ‫هر‬ ‫در‬‫ته‬ ‫گویند‬‫می‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ً‫ا‬‫اصطالح‬ ،‫است‬ ‫موجود‬.‫است‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫از‬ ‫ای‬‫مجموعه‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫یک‬ ‫از‬ ‫منظور‬ ‫باشند‬ ‫شده‬ ‫آوری‬‫جمع‬ ‫منظمی‬ ‫و‬ ‫مساوی‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫فواصل‬ ‫در‬ ‫که‬.‫را‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫داده‬ ‫گونه‬ ‫این‬ ‫که‬ ‫آماری‬ ‫های‬‫روش‬ ‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫نامیده‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫سری‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫های‬‫روش‬ ‫هد‬‫می‬ ‫قرار‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫مورد‬.‫ط‬ ‫شرکت‬ ‫یک‬ ‫فصلی‬ ‫فروش‬ ‫مانند‬‫سه‬ ‫ی‬ ‫گذشته‬ ‫سال‬.‫باشند‬ ‫شده‬ ‫مرتب‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫اساس‬ ‫بر‬ ‫که‬ ‫ست‬ ‫مشاهداتی‬ ٔ‫ه‬‫مجموع‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫یک‬.‫آن‬ ‫های‬‫مثال‬‫در‬‫اق‬‫تصاد‬ ‫شود‬‫می‬ ‫دیده‬ ‫مهندسی‬ ‫های‬‫رشته‬ ‫حتی‬ ‫و‬.‫آم‬ ‫از‬ ‫مهمی‬ ‫قسمت‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫سریهای‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫و‬ ‫تجزیه‬ ‫روشهای‬ ‫بخصوص‬‫ار‬ ‫دهد‬‫می‬ ‫تشکیل‬ ‫را‬. 5 23
  • 6. ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬(‫ادامه‬: ) ‫زمانی‬ ‫سری‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫اجزاء‬: Trend - Seasonality - Fluctuation - ‫زمانی‬ ‫های‬‫سری‬ ‫وتحلیل‬ ‫تجزیه‬ ‫اهداف‬: ‫کرد‬ ‫بندی‬‫رده‬ ‫زیر‬ ‫صورت‬ ‫به‬ ‫را‬ ‫اهداف‬ ‫توان‬‫می‬: _‫توصیف‬_‫تشریح‬ _‫کنترل‬_‫بینی‬ ‫پیش‬ 6 23
  • 7. NARX  Nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input ‫ورودی‬ ‫با‬ ‫خودکار‬ ‫غیرخطی‬ ‫عصبی‬ ‫شبکه‬‫خارجی‬ 7 23
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  • 18. 18 23 % Solve an Autoregression Problem with External Input with a NARX Neural Network % Script generated by Neural Time Series app % Created 19-Dec-2017 00:39:41 % % This script assumes these variables are defined: % % phInputs - input time series. % phTargets - feedback time series.
  • 19. 19 23 X = phInputs; T = phTargets; % Choose a Training Function % For a list of all training functions type: help nntrain % 'trainlm' is usually fastest. % 'trainbr' takes longer but may be better for challenging problems. % 'trainscg' uses less memory. Suitable in low memory situations. trainFcn = 'trainlm'; % Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation. % Create a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with External Input inputDelays = 1:2; feedbackDelays = 1:2; hiddenLayerSize = 10; net = narxnet(inputDelays,feedbackDelays,hiddenLayerSize,'open',trainFcn);
  • 20. 20 23 % Prepare the Data for Training and Simulation % The function PREPARETS prepares timeseries data for a particular network, % shifting time by the minimum amount to fill input states and layer % states. Using PREPARETS allows you to keep your original time series data % unchanged, while easily customizing it for networks with differing % numbers of delays, with open loop or closed loop feedback modes. [x,xi,ai,t] = preparets(net,X,{},T); % Setup Division of Data for Training, Validation, Testing net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100; net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100; net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100; % Train the Network [net,tr] = train(net,x,t,xi,ai);
  • 21. 21 23 % Test the Network y = net(x,xi,ai); e = gsubtract(t,y); performance = perform(net,t,y) % View the Network view(net) % Plots % Uncomment these lines to enable various plots. %figure, plotperform(tr) %figure, plottrainstate(tr) %figure, ploterrhist(e) %figure, plotregression(t,y) %figure, plotresponse(t,y) %figure, ploterrcorr(e) %figure, plotinerrcorr(x,e)
  • 22. 22 23 % Closed Loop Network % Use this network to do multi-step prediction. % The function CLOSELOOP replaces the feedback input with a direct % connection from the outout layer. netc = closeloop(net); netc.name = [net.name ' - Closed Loop']; view(netc) [xc,xic,aic,tc] = preparets(netc,X,{},T); yc = netc(xc,xic,aic); closedLoopPerformance = perform(net,tc,yc)
  • 23. 23 23 % Step-Ahead Prediction Network % For some applications it helps to get the prediction a timestep early. % The original network returns predicted y(t+1) at the same time it is % given y(t+1). For some applications such as decision making, it would % help to have predicted y(t+1) once y(t) is available, but before the % actual y(t+1) occurs. The network can be made to return its output a % timestep early by removing one delay so that its minimal tap delay is now % 0 instead of 1. The new network returns the same outputs as the original % network, but outputs are shifted left one timestep. nets = removedelay(net); nets.name = [net.name ' - Predict One Step Ahead']; view(nets) [xs,xis,ais,ts] = preparets(nets,X,{},T); ys = nets(xs,xis,ais); stepAheadPerformance = perform(nets,ts,ys)