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Emissions Analysis Executive Summary
Prepared for the Steel
Manufacturers Association (SMA)
June 14, 2022 – FINAL
1
This presentation is private and confidential. It must not be disclosed in whole or in part, directly or indirectly or
in any other format without the prior written permission of CRU International Limited.
CRU International Limited’s responsibility is solely to its clients and its liability is limited to the amount of the
fees actually paid for professional services.
Although reasonable care and diligence has been used in the preparation of this presentation, we do not
guarantee the accuracy of any data, assumptions, forecasts or other forward-looking statements. We accept
no liability to third parties, howsoever arising.
CRU takes information security seriously and currently holds the UK Government approved Cyber Essentials
certification. This certifies that we have the appropriate security controls across our organisation and third party
suppliers to protect our information assets. CRU also has a privacy policy in place which explains how we
handle personal data on our customers.
Copyright CRU International Limited 2021. All rights reserved.
Legal notice
2
Emissions Analysis
2
List of Abbreviations and definitions
4
Abbreviation Definition
Allocated emissions
A method of attributing the Scope 1 emissions generated to
a production level or process. Allocated emissions allows
for product, process comparison and benchmarking
between sites. Unless otherwise noted, this Report
measures Allocated Emissions, not Normalized Emissions
Total direct,
normalized emissions
BFG
BF – BOF
COG
Crude steel
CCS
DRI
A method of benchmarking Scope 1 emissions where total
plant-wide emissions (including intermediate product sales)
are divided by crude steel production in the respective year.
This benchmark is comparable to ISO14404.
Blast furnace gas
Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (i.e., the ‘integrated’
steelmaking route).
Coke oven gas
The first point in the steelmaking production process where
steel is produced (namely EAF or BOF outputs), prior to
casting and further downstream processes
Carbon capture storage
Direct reduced iron, an alternative iron product produced via
the DR process rather than the standard BF process
EAF
Flat products
HRC
Electric Arc Furnace (i.e., the electric steelmaking route)
Steel sheet, plate and other similarly-shaped products
typically rolled from slab
Hot-rolled coil
Emissions Analysis
Abbreviation Definition
JKT Refers to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan-China.
Long products
PCI
Scope 1
emissions
Steel bar and other similarly-shaped products typically rolled from
bloom or billet
Pulverized coal injection, an alternative to coke in the blast furnace
Direct emissions occur from sources that are owned or controlled by
the specific facility or plant measured
Scope 2
emissions
Scope 3
emissions
Scope 2 accounts for GHG emissions from the generation of
purchased electricity consumed by the facility
Scope 3 emissions are a consequence of activities of the facility,
but occur from sources not owned or controlled by the facility
MJ
Megajoules, a unit of energy to measure energy use in a specific
steelmaking process. 1000 MJ = 1 GJ (Gigajoule).
MPI Merchant pig iron
OBM Ore-based metallics
thm
“Tonnes of hot metal”. Typically used in consumption rates (e.g.
500 t pellets /thm)
tcs “Tonnes of crude steel”
VOC Volatile organic compounds, a type of localized pollutant
3
Introduction
CRU Consulting has been engaged by the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) to conduct a study of US
steelmaking emissions, with a focus on the relative carbon emission intensities associated with BOF and EAF-
based steelmakers in the United States. The study’s objective is to provide SMA with an independent
assessment of EAF steelmaking emissions and how they compare with domestic and global iron and
steelmaking peers.
In this document, CRU provides:
• Analysis of Scope 1 & 2 emissions for US steelmakers and description of underlying drivers
• Analysis of upstream Scope 3 emissions generated through the production of raw materials and the associated
transportation of inputs to the steel mill
• Comparisons of carbon emissions between US steelmakers and global peers, at various steps in the steelmaking
production process
• An overview of ironmaking-related emissions and assessment of key emissions-related factors
• Emissions benchmarking for rerollers that procure third-party slab on a total Scope 1, 2 & 3 basis
5
Emissions Analysis
4
6
Emissions Analysis
Executive Summary
5
Key Conclusions for the SMA
7
Emissions Analysis
Scope 1 & 2: Domestic EAF steelmakers emit 78% less carbon emissions in crude steelmaking than their integrated counterparts
in the US. At the hot-rolled steel level, the emissions standing between US EAFs and BOFs narrows to 74%
Scope 3: Scope 3 emissions for EAFs were similar to or lower than BOFs, and do not close the absolute gap between the
two steelmaking routes
The carbon footprint for slab rerollers that use imported slab is higher than most US BOFs and significantly higher than all
domestic EAF-based flat producers
Direct emissions for US pig iron production reached 1.47 t CO2 / thm, 15% lower than the average among Russian,
Ukrainian and Brazilian peers. However, when the carbon footprint of upstream iron ore mining is included, the performance
gap narrows to just 5% since US iron ore mining companies have higher emissions than their global seaborne peers
For integrated steelmaking, CRU has identified a clear relationship between iron ore quality, pellet rates, and BF steelmaking
emissions. However, when all scope 3 emissions are considered, there is no overall impact on carbon intensity between domestic
BFs and sheet EAFs using imported raw material. Sheet mill EAFs maintain a substantial advantage
6
Executive summary: Steelmaking emissions at the Scope 1 & 2 level
8
Emissions Analysis
► The United States is home to both integrated
steelmakers utilizing the BF-BOF process and
scrap-based EAF steelmakers. EAF steelmakers
currently contribute 70% of total US crude steel
production
► Average Scope 1 & 2 CO2 emissions for BOFs
reached 1.67 t CO2 / tcs, of which 80% is
associated with the BF ironmaking stage
► Coke rates in the BF and scrap rates in the BOF
are the key emissions intensity differentiators
between US BOFs
► Scope 1 & 2 emissions for all EAFs reached 0.37
t CO2 / tcs, of which 67% is associated with
Scope 2 emissions (purchased electricity)
► The carbon intensity of local purchased
electricity, which varies widely based on mill
location, represents the key emissions intensity
differentiator between US EAFs
► Industry-wide EAF emissions are 78% lower
than BOF emissions on a Scope 1 & 2 basis
► At the level of hot-rolled steel (both Flat products
and Long products), BOF and EAF emissions
intensities amounted to 1.94 and 0.48 t CO2 / hot-
rolled steel, respectively
► These represent a 0.27 t/t (16%) and 0.11 t/t
(30%) increase in emissions intensity from
upstream crude steel production, respectively
► EAFs not only have an emissions-related
performance advantage at the crude steel
production level, but also at the downstream
casting and hot-rolling levels, typically due to
newer, more efficient casting and hot-rolling
equipment and processes
► Emissions associated with casting and hot-rolling
are 2x higher for BOFs compared to EAFs
► For Flat-Rolled products, the emissions gap
between BOFs and EAFs narrows slightly to 1.94
and 0.52 t CO2 / t HRC, respectively (a 73%
difference), since EAF flat-rolled producers are
generally toward the higher end of the EAF
emissions curve
► Overall US crude steel production is
~37% less carbon intensive than Europe
due to the higher proportion of EAF
supply in the US (70%) compared to
46% in the EU. Differences in emissions
between US and EU BOFs are not
significant
► While the EU has developed more
regulations around CO2 emissions, a
significant portion of commodity-grade
steel is produced from integrated
producers using sintered fines, which
increases their carbon footprint
compared to the US
► For HRC and other flat products, the US
uses both integrated and EAFs to
produce HRC and other flat products,
whereas the EU still heavily relies on
integrated steelmaking or the
importation of slab for downstream
processing to produce HRC
Crude steel production: BOFs and
EAFs in the US
Hot-rolled steel: BOFs and EAFs in the
US
Steel production: US and EU
7
Executive summary: Ironmaking emissions at the Scope 1 & 2 level
9
Emissions Analysis
► To calculate emissions intensities for pig iron (MPI) production on a like-
for-like basis, CRU assessed allocated Scope 1 & 2 emissions up to and
including the blast furnace level for hot metal production. This includes
emissions associated with on-site coke plants, charcoal kilns, and sinter
plants, where applicable. Emissions associated with merchant pig iron
casting are negligible
► The US has the lowest emissions levels for pig iron (1.47 t CO2 / thm)
among the four MPI-exporting peers. Sinter-based Ukrainian production
was the highest (1.77 t/t), followed by charcoal-based Brazilian pig iron
(1.74 t/t) and pellet-based Russian pig iron (1.63 t/t)
► Coke rates and relative sinter/pellet and slag rates are the key emissions
intensity differentiators between US, Russian and Ukrainian pig iron
► CRU does not find the differences in pig iron emissions intensities
(±12%) to be a significant competitive advantage for US pig iron
producers over their global peers.
► When upstream iron ore mining emissions are included, the comparative
advantage for US pig iron producers narrows even further, since US iron
ore mining companies incur higher beneficiation costs (and therefore
higher emissions) than global peers in the seaborne market
► Based on CRU analysis, high pellet rates in US blast furnaces contributes a
~0.15 tCO2 /thm reduction in total Scope 1 emissions compared to the
more sinter-intensive global average Scope 1 BF emissions factor of 1.69
tCO2 /thm. These figures include the net emissions associated with
sintering fines, where applicable
► Higher Fe (iron) content in pellets is the key performance contributor in
blast furnaces. Higher Fe content reduces slag rates, which in turn,
reduces coke or PCI requirements in the furnace
► High pellet use is expected to contribute to a 10% performance advantage
compared to high sintered fines use, when only direct emissions in the
blast furnace are compared
► While a relationship between sinter/pellet rates and BF emissions exists,
other factors, like scrap rate in the BOF and the emissions intensity of
upstream iron ore suppliers, also play a key role in determining overall
Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions for integrated steelmakers
► Based on CRU’s analysis, the claim that sinter use (instead of pellets) has
a significantly negative impact on integrated steelmaking emissions
remains unfounded
Pig iron: comparing US BFs with global peers in the
merchant pig iron market
Ironmaking-related emissions: Relationships between
sinter/pellet rates and carbon intensities
8
Executive summary: Scope 3 emissions impact
10
Emissions Analysis
► When Scope 3 emissions are included, the gap between domestic EAF
flat producers and BOFs narrows moderately, since the carbon footprint
of third-party purchased OBMs is included in the emissions calculation
for EAFs. For some EAF flat producers, including Scope 3 emissions can
more than double their on-site (Scope 1 & 2) carbon footprint
► Overall, Scope 3 emissions associated with OBM and scrap procurement
increase the carbon footprint by 100% and 35%, respectively, for EAF flat
and EAF longs producers
► On average, domestic EAF steelmakers emit 68% less carbon
emissions, on a tCO2/tcs basis, than their US integrated counterparts
when Scope 3 emissions are included. At the hot-rolled steel level, the
emissions standing between US EAFs and BOFs narrows to 60%.
Critically, the absolute differences do not decline. Rather, the gaps are
closed simply on a percentage calculation because the denominations
are enlarged
► For domestic integrated producers, upstream Scope 3 emissions
calculations include external purchases or transfers of metallurgical coal,
third-party coke and pellets. Overall, the carbon footprint of integrated
producers increases by 25% when Scope 3 emissions are included
► While the US scrap industry continues to face challenges associated with
localized pollutants, including VOCs and particulate matter, its carbon
emissions intensity is exceptionally low because of its highly localized and
mechanized nature
► Carbon emissions associated with scrap processing and transport amount to
less than 0.06 t CO2 / t scrap (t/t). This figure includes an estimated 0.04 t/t
emissions intensity at the scrapyard (associated with shredding, ferrous
separation and ancillary processes), and a further 0.02 t/t emissions
associated with transporting scrap from the yard to the customer via truck,
rail, barge or vessel.
► While scrap deliveries are highly reliant on higher-emitting truck transport,
the scrap supply chain is highly localized. Therefore, average distances
travelled are low and transport-related emissions for scrap are limited
compared to other, more globalized steelmaking raw materials
Upstream Scope 3 emissions: Not sufficient to close the
gap between EAF and BOF carbon footprints
Scrap processing and transport emissions make only a
small contribution to total steelmaking carbon footprint
9
Executive summary: Scope 3 emissions impact, cont.
11
Emissions Analysis
► In the US, iron ore pelletization occurs at the mine, and is therefore not
included in Scope 1+2 emissions reporting for steelmakers. This
contrasts with sinter-consuming BFs in Ukraine and Russia (and in much
of the rest of the world), where sintering occurs at the steel mill and
directly leads to a higher Scope 1+2 emission figure
► Beneficiation and processing requirements determine carbon emissions
at the upstream iron ore mining level. The US has among the highest
beneficiation requirements among global iron ore mining regions and, in
turn, generates higher emissions on a per-ton-of-ore basis than most
other regions. Overall, upstream iron ore mining adds 0.20 t CO2/thm to
the carbon footprint of US BFs
► Unlike in most other regions, US integrated steelmakers meet a
significant share of coke requirements via third-party purchases.
Emissions associated with external coke and upstream metcoal mining
contribute a further 0.21 t CO2/thm to the carbon footprint of US BFs
► The US is home to several rolling mills that currently lack a meltshop and
therefore procure slabs for rerolling into HRC. Most third-party merchant
slab demand is met by imports, primarily from Brazil, Mexico, Russia and
India
► While Scope 1 & 2 emissions generated by slab rerolling facilities are low,
they are roughly comparable to the downstream (hot-rolling) carbon
footprint for domestic EAF flats producers. Therefore, the emissions
intensity at the crude steel production and casting level is the key
differentiator between slab rerollers and domestic flat producers
► Steelmaking/casting-related emissions for imported slab are significant but
vary widely by country of origin, ranging from 2.1 t CO2 / t slab from Mexico
to over 3.1 t/t from India. When associated international freight-related
emissions are included, imported slabs have an average emissions
intensity of 2.49 t CO2 / t slab, based on 2021 import volumes by country
► On an all-in Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions basis, slab rerollers emissions
reached 2.59 t CO2 / t HRC in 2021, which places these operations in the
fourth quartile of the US HRC emissions curve. Based on this analysis,
CRU concludes that the carbon footprint for slab rerollers is higher than
most US BOFs and significantly higher than all domestic EAF-based flat
producers
The carbon advantage US-based BOFs have compared to
other global BOFs is almost entirely eliminated when
upstream iron ore mining and met coal is included
The domestic merchant slab rerolling market is
characterized by high steelmaking and transport-related
emissions
10
US steelmaking Scope 1 & 2 emissions: key metrics summary
12
Production level Mill type in the US
US Scope 1 average
t CO2 / t
US Scope 2 average
t CO2 / t
Total Scope 1 & 2
t CO2 / t
Crude Steel
BOF (Total) 1.64 0.03 1.67
EAF (Flat Products) 0.13 0.26 0.39
EAF (Long Products) 0.11 0.23 0.34
EAF (Total) 0.12 0.25 0.37
Hot-Rolled Products
BOF (Total) 1.86 0.07 1.94
EAF (Flat Products) 0.17 0.34 0.52
EAF (Long Products) 0.18 0.29 0.48
Emissions Analysis
1.6
0.3 0.2 0.3
0.1
0.0
BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats) EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total)
0.1 0.1
1.7
0.4 0.3 0.4
1.9
0.2 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.3
BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats)
0.1
EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total)
0.2
1.9
0.5 0.5 0.5
Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 1 Scope 2
Crude steel carbon intensities Hot-rolled steel carbon intensities
DATA: CRU
11
Comparing Scope 1 & 2 emissions with relevant peers: key metrics summary
13
Emissions Analysis
Production level Mill type in the US
US Scope 1 average
t CO2 / t
US Scope 2 average
t CO2 / t
Total Scope 1 & 2
t CO2 / t
Crude Steel
US (Total) 0.68 0.17 0.85
Europe (Total) 1.31 0.04 1.35
Hot-Rolled Products
US (Total) 0.97 0.22 1.19
Europe (Total) 1.81 0.03 1.84
Pig iron
US (Pellet + Coke BF) 1.46 0.01 1.47
Russia (Pellet + Coke BF) 1.60 0.03 1.63
Ukraine (Sinter + Coke BF) 1.75 0.02 1.77
Brazil (Pellet/Sinter + Charcoal BF) 1.72 0.02 1.74
0.7
1.3
0.2
0.8
US
0.0
Crude steel carbon intensities
1.4
Europe
Scope 1 Scope 2
1.0
1.8
Europe
US
0.0
0.2
1.2
Hot-rolled coil carbon intensities
1.8
Scope 1 Scope 2
1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7
Brazil
0.0
US
0.0
Russia
0.0 0.0
Ukraine
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Scope 1 Scope 2
Pig iron carbon intensities
DATA: CRU
12
US steelmaking Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions: key metrics summary
14
Production level Mill type in the US
US Scope 1 average
t CO2 / t
US Scope 2 average
t CO2 / t
US Scope 3 average
t CO2 / t
Total Scope 1+2+3
t CO2 / t
Crude Steel
BOF (Total) 1.64 0.03 0.44 2.11
EAF (Flat Products) 0.13 0.26 0.43 0.84
EAF (Long Products) 0.11 0.23 0.13 0.47
EAF (Total) 0.12 0.25 0.31 0.68
Hot-Rolled Products
BOF (Total) 1.86 0.07 0.46 2.40
EAF (Flat Products) 0.17 0.34 0.45 0.97
EAF (Long Products) 0.18 0.29 0.13 0.61
EAF (Total) 0.19 0.32 0.32 0.83
Slab rerollers 0.04 0.05 2.50 2.59
Emissions Analysis
1.6
0.3 0.2 0.3
0.4
0.4 0.3
EAFs (Longs)
0.1 0.1
0.0
EAFs (Total)
BOFs (Total)
0.1
EAFs (Flats)
0.1
2.1
0.8
0.5
0.7 1.9
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.5
0.5 0.3
2.5
0.2
BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats) EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total) Slab rerollers
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0 0.1
2.4
1.0
0.6
0.8
Hot-rolled steel carbon intensities 2.6
Scope 1 Scope 3
Scope 2 Scope 3
Scope 1 Scope 2
Crude steel carbon intensities
DATA: CRU
13

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CRU-Emissions-Analysis-Executive-Summary-7-22.pdf

  • 1. Emissions Analysis Executive Summary Prepared for the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) June 14, 2022 – FINAL 1
  • 2. This presentation is private and confidential. It must not be disclosed in whole or in part, directly or indirectly or in any other format without the prior written permission of CRU International Limited. CRU International Limited’s responsibility is solely to its clients and its liability is limited to the amount of the fees actually paid for professional services. Although reasonable care and diligence has been used in the preparation of this presentation, we do not guarantee the accuracy of any data, assumptions, forecasts or other forward-looking statements. We accept no liability to third parties, howsoever arising. CRU takes information security seriously and currently holds the UK Government approved Cyber Essentials certification. This certifies that we have the appropriate security controls across our organisation and third party suppliers to protect our information assets. CRU also has a privacy policy in place which explains how we handle personal data on our customers. Copyright CRU International Limited 2021. All rights reserved. Legal notice 2 Emissions Analysis 2
  • 3. List of Abbreviations and definitions 4 Abbreviation Definition Allocated emissions A method of attributing the Scope 1 emissions generated to a production level or process. Allocated emissions allows for product, process comparison and benchmarking between sites. Unless otherwise noted, this Report measures Allocated Emissions, not Normalized Emissions Total direct, normalized emissions BFG BF – BOF COG Crude steel CCS DRI A method of benchmarking Scope 1 emissions where total plant-wide emissions (including intermediate product sales) are divided by crude steel production in the respective year. This benchmark is comparable to ISO14404. Blast furnace gas Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (i.e., the ‘integrated’ steelmaking route). Coke oven gas The first point in the steelmaking production process where steel is produced (namely EAF or BOF outputs), prior to casting and further downstream processes Carbon capture storage Direct reduced iron, an alternative iron product produced via the DR process rather than the standard BF process EAF Flat products HRC Electric Arc Furnace (i.e., the electric steelmaking route) Steel sheet, plate and other similarly-shaped products typically rolled from slab Hot-rolled coil Emissions Analysis Abbreviation Definition JKT Refers to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan-China. Long products PCI Scope 1 emissions Steel bar and other similarly-shaped products typically rolled from bloom or billet Pulverized coal injection, an alternative to coke in the blast furnace Direct emissions occur from sources that are owned or controlled by the specific facility or plant measured Scope 2 emissions Scope 3 emissions Scope 2 accounts for GHG emissions from the generation of purchased electricity consumed by the facility Scope 3 emissions are a consequence of activities of the facility, but occur from sources not owned or controlled by the facility MJ Megajoules, a unit of energy to measure energy use in a specific steelmaking process. 1000 MJ = 1 GJ (Gigajoule). MPI Merchant pig iron OBM Ore-based metallics thm “Tonnes of hot metal”. Typically used in consumption rates (e.g. 500 t pellets /thm) tcs “Tonnes of crude steel” VOC Volatile organic compounds, a type of localized pollutant 3
  • 4. Introduction CRU Consulting has been engaged by the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) to conduct a study of US steelmaking emissions, with a focus on the relative carbon emission intensities associated with BOF and EAF- based steelmakers in the United States. The study’s objective is to provide SMA with an independent assessment of EAF steelmaking emissions and how they compare with domestic and global iron and steelmaking peers. In this document, CRU provides: • Analysis of Scope 1 & 2 emissions for US steelmakers and description of underlying drivers • Analysis of upstream Scope 3 emissions generated through the production of raw materials and the associated transportation of inputs to the steel mill • Comparisons of carbon emissions between US steelmakers and global peers, at various steps in the steelmaking production process • An overview of ironmaking-related emissions and assessment of key emissions-related factors • Emissions benchmarking for rerollers that procure third-party slab on a total Scope 1, 2 & 3 basis 5 Emissions Analysis 4
  • 6. Key Conclusions for the SMA 7 Emissions Analysis Scope 1 & 2: Domestic EAF steelmakers emit 78% less carbon emissions in crude steelmaking than their integrated counterparts in the US. At the hot-rolled steel level, the emissions standing between US EAFs and BOFs narrows to 74% Scope 3: Scope 3 emissions for EAFs were similar to or lower than BOFs, and do not close the absolute gap between the two steelmaking routes The carbon footprint for slab rerollers that use imported slab is higher than most US BOFs and significantly higher than all domestic EAF-based flat producers Direct emissions for US pig iron production reached 1.47 t CO2 / thm, 15% lower than the average among Russian, Ukrainian and Brazilian peers. However, when the carbon footprint of upstream iron ore mining is included, the performance gap narrows to just 5% since US iron ore mining companies have higher emissions than their global seaborne peers For integrated steelmaking, CRU has identified a clear relationship between iron ore quality, pellet rates, and BF steelmaking emissions. However, when all scope 3 emissions are considered, there is no overall impact on carbon intensity between domestic BFs and sheet EAFs using imported raw material. Sheet mill EAFs maintain a substantial advantage 6
  • 7. Executive summary: Steelmaking emissions at the Scope 1 & 2 level 8 Emissions Analysis ► The United States is home to both integrated steelmakers utilizing the BF-BOF process and scrap-based EAF steelmakers. EAF steelmakers currently contribute 70% of total US crude steel production ► Average Scope 1 & 2 CO2 emissions for BOFs reached 1.67 t CO2 / tcs, of which 80% is associated with the BF ironmaking stage ► Coke rates in the BF and scrap rates in the BOF are the key emissions intensity differentiators between US BOFs ► Scope 1 & 2 emissions for all EAFs reached 0.37 t CO2 / tcs, of which 67% is associated with Scope 2 emissions (purchased electricity) ► The carbon intensity of local purchased electricity, which varies widely based on mill location, represents the key emissions intensity differentiator between US EAFs ► Industry-wide EAF emissions are 78% lower than BOF emissions on a Scope 1 & 2 basis ► At the level of hot-rolled steel (both Flat products and Long products), BOF and EAF emissions intensities amounted to 1.94 and 0.48 t CO2 / hot- rolled steel, respectively ► These represent a 0.27 t/t (16%) and 0.11 t/t (30%) increase in emissions intensity from upstream crude steel production, respectively ► EAFs not only have an emissions-related performance advantage at the crude steel production level, but also at the downstream casting and hot-rolling levels, typically due to newer, more efficient casting and hot-rolling equipment and processes ► Emissions associated with casting and hot-rolling are 2x higher for BOFs compared to EAFs ► For Flat-Rolled products, the emissions gap between BOFs and EAFs narrows slightly to 1.94 and 0.52 t CO2 / t HRC, respectively (a 73% difference), since EAF flat-rolled producers are generally toward the higher end of the EAF emissions curve ► Overall US crude steel production is ~37% less carbon intensive than Europe due to the higher proportion of EAF supply in the US (70%) compared to 46% in the EU. Differences in emissions between US and EU BOFs are not significant ► While the EU has developed more regulations around CO2 emissions, a significant portion of commodity-grade steel is produced from integrated producers using sintered fines, which increases their carbon footprint compared to the US ► For HRC and other flat products, the US uses both integrated and EAFs to produce HRC and other flat products, whereas the EU still heavily relies on integrated steelmaking or the importation of slab for downstream processing to produce HRC Crude steel production: BOFs and EAFs in the US Hot-rolled steel: BOFs and EAFs in the US Steel production: US and EU 7
  • 8. Executive summary: Ironmaking emissions at the Scope 1 & 2 level 9 Emissions Analysis ► To calculate emissions intensities for pig iron (MPI) production on a like- for-like basis, CRU assessed allocated Scope 1 & 2 emissions up to and including the blast furnace level for hot metal production. This includes emissions associated with on-site coke plants, charcoal kilns, and sinter plants, where applicable. Emissions associated with merchant pig iron casting are negligible ► The US has the lowest emissions levels for pig iron (1.47 t CO2 / thm) among the four MPI-exporting peers. Sinter-based Ukrainian production was the highest (1.77 t/t), followed by charcoal-based Brazilian pig iron (1.74 t/t) and pellet-based Russian pig iron (1.63 t/t) ► Coke rates and relative sinter/pellet and slag rates are the key emissions intensity differentiators between US, Russian and Ukrainian pig iron ► CRU does not find the differences in pig iron emissions intensities (±12%) to be a significant competitive advantage for US pig iron producers over their global peers. ► When upstream iron ore mining emissions are included, the comparative advantage for US pig iron producers narrows even further, since US iron ore mining companies incur higher beneficiation costs (and therefore higher emissions) than global peers in the seaborne market ► Based on CRU analysis, high pellet rates in US blast furnaces contributes a ~0.15 tCO2 /thm reduction in total Scope 1 emissions compared to the more sinter-intensive global average Scope 1 BF emissions factor of 1.69 tCO2 /thm. These figures include the net emissions associated with sintering fines, where applicable ► Higher Fe (iron) content in pellets is the key performance contributor in blast furnaces. Higher Fe content reduces slag rates, which in turn, reduces coke or PCI requirements in the furnace ► High pellet use is expected to contribute to a 10% performance advantage compared to high sintered fines use, when only direct emissions in the blast furnace are compared ► While a relationship between sinter/pellet rates and BF emissions exists, other factors, like scrap rate in the BOF and the emissions intensity of upstream iron ore suppliers, also play a key role in determining overall Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions for integrated steelmakers ► Based on CRU’s analysis, the claim that sinter use (instead of pellets) has a significantly negative impact on integrated steelmaking emissions remains unfounded Pig iron: comparing US BFs with global peers in the merchant pig iron market Ironmaking-related emissions: Relationships between sinter/pellet rates and carbon intensities 8
  • 9. Executive summary: Scope 3 emissions impact 10 Emissions Analysis ► When Scope 3 emissions are included, the gap between domestic EAF flat producers and BOFs narrows moderately, since the carbon footprint of third-party purchased OBMs is included in the emissions calculation for EAFs. For some EAF flat producers, including Scope 3 emissions can more than double their on-site (Scope 1 & 2) carbon footprint ► Overall, Scope 3 emissions associated with OBM and scrap procurement increase the carbon footprint by 100% and 35%, respectively, for EAF flat and EAF longs producers ► On average, domestic EAF steelmakers emit 68% less carbon emissions, on a tCO2/tcs basis, than their US integrated counterparts when Scope 3 emissions are included. At the hot-rolled steel level, the emissions standing between US EAFs and BOFs narrows to 60%. Critically, the absolute differences do not decline. Rather, the gaps are closed simply on a percentage calculation because the denominations are enlarged ► For domestic integrated producers, upstream Scope 3 emissions calculations include external purchases or transfers of metallurgical coal, third-party coke and pellets. Overall, the carbon footprint of integrated producers increases by 25% when Scope 3 emissions are included ► While the US scrap industry continues to face challenges associated with localized pollutants, including VOCs and particulate matter, its carbon emissions intensity is exceptionally low because of its highly localized and mechanized nature ► Carbon emissions associated with scrap processing and transport amount to less than 0.06 t CO2 / t scrap (t/t). This figure includes an estimated 0.04 t/t emissions intensity at the scrapyard (associated with shredding, ferrous separation and ancillary processes), and a further 0.02 t/t emissions associated with transporting scrap from the yard to the customer via truck, rail, barge or vessel. ► While scrap deliveries are highly reliant on higher-emitting truck transport, the scrap supply chain is highly localized. Therefore, average distances travelled are low and transport-related emissions for scrap are limited compared to other, more globalized steelmaking raw materials Upstream Scope 3 emissions: Not sufficient to close the gap between EAF and BOF carbon footprints Scrap processing and transport emissions make only a small contribution to total steelmaking carbon footprint 9
  • 10. Executive summary: Scope 3 emissions impact, cont. 11 Emissions Analysis ► In the US, iron ore pelletization occurs at the mine, and is therefore not included in Scope 1+2 emissions reporting for steelmakers. This contrasts with sinter-consuming BFs in Ukraine and Russia (and in much of the rest of the world), where sintering occurs at the steel mill and directly leads to a higher Scope 1+2 emission figure ► Beneficiation and processing requirements determine carbon emissions at the upstream iron ore mining level. The US has among the highest beneficiation requirements among global iron ore mining regions and, in turn, generates higher emissions on a per-ton-of-ore basis than most other regions. Overall, upstream iron ore mining adds 0.20 t CO2/thm to the carbon footprint of US BFs ► Unlike in most other regions, US integrated steelmakers meet a significant share of coke requirements via third-party purchases. Emissions associated with external coke and upstream metcoal mining contribute a further 0.21 t CO2/thm to the carbon footprint of US BFs ► The US is home to several rolling mills that currently lack a meltshop and therefore procure slabs for rerolling into HRC. Most third-party merchant slab demand is met by imports, primarily from Brazil, Mexico, Russia and India ► While Scope 1 & 2 emissions generated by slab rerolling facilities are low, they are roughly comparable to the downstream (hot-rolling) carbon footprint for domestic EAF flats producers. Therefore, the emissions intensity at the crude steel production and casting level is the key differentiator between slab rerollers and domestic flat producers ► Steelmaking/casting-related emissions for imported slab are significant but vary widely by country of origin, ranging from 2.1 t CO2 / t slab from Mexico to over 3.1 t/t from India. When associated international freight-related emissions are included, imported slabs have an average emissions intensity of 2.49 t CO2 / t slab, based on 2021 import volumes by country ► On an all-in Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions basis, slab rerollers emissions reached 2.59 t CO2 / t HRC in 2021, which places these operations in the fourth quartile of the US HRC emissions curve. Based on this analysis, CRU concludes that the carbon footprint for slab rerollers is higher than most US BOFs and significantly higher than all domestic EAF-based flat producers The carbon advantage US-based BOFs have compared to other global BOFs is almost entirely eliminated when upstream iron ore mining and met coal is included The domestic merchant slab rerolling market is characterized by high steelmaking and transport-related emissions 10
  • 11. US steelmaking Scope 1 & 2 emissions: key metrics summary 12 Production level Mill type in the US US Scope 1 average t CO2 / t US Scope 2 average t CO2 / t Total Scope 1 & 2 t CO2 / t Crude Steel BOF (Total) 1.64 0.03 1.67 EAF (Flat Products) 0.13 0.26 0.39 EAF (Long Products) 0.11 0.23 0.34 EAF (Total) 0.12 0.25 0.37 Hot-Rolled Products BOF (Total) 1.86 0.07 1.94 EAF (Flat Products) 0.17 0.34 0.52 EAF (Long Products) 0.18 0.29 0.48 Emissions Analysis 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats) EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total) 0.1 0.1 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats) 0.1 EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total) 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 1 Scope 2 Crude steel carbon intensities Hot-rolled steel carbon intensities DATA: CRU 11
  • 12. Comparing Scope 1 & 2 emissions with relevant peers: key metrics summary 13 Emissions Analysis Production level Mill type in the US US Scope 1 average t CO2 / t US Scope 2 average t CO2 / t Total Scope 1 & 2 t CO2 / t Crude Steel US (Total) 0.68 0.17 0.85 Europe (Total) 1.31 0.04 1.35 Hot-Rolled Products US (Total) 0.97 0.22 1.19 Europe (Total) 1.81 0.03 1.84 Pig iron US (Pellet + Coke BF) 1.46 0.01 1.47 Russia (Pellet + Coke BF) 1.60 0.03 1.63 Ukraine (Sinter + Coke BF) 1.75 0.02 1.77 Brazil (Pellet/Sinter + Charcoal BF) 1.72 0.02 1.74 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.8 US 0.0 Crude steel carbon intensities 1.4 Europe Scope 1 Scope 2 1.0 1.8 Europe US 0.0 0.2 1.2 Hot-rolled coil carbon intensities 1.8 Scope 1 Scope 2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 Brazil 0.0 US 0.0 Russia 0.0 0.0 Ukraine 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Scope 1 Scope 2 Pig iron carbon intensities DATA: CRU 12
  • 13. US steelmaking Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions: key metrics summary 14 Production level Mill type in the US US Scope 1 average t CO2 / t US Scope 2 average t CO2 / t US Scope 3 average t CO2 / t Total Scope 1+2+3 t CO2 / t Crude Steel BOF (Total) 1.64 0.03 0.44 2.11 EAF (Flat Products) 0.13 0.26 0.43 0.84 EAF (Long Products) 0.11 0.23 0.13 0.47 EAF (Total) 0.12 0.25 0.31 0.68 Hot-Rolled Products BOF (Total) 1.86 0.07 0.46 2.40 EAF (Flat Products) 0.17 0.34 0.45 0.97 EAF (Long Products) 0.18 0.29 0.13 0.61 EAF (Total) 0.19 0.32 0.32 0.83 Slab rerollers 0.04 0.05 2.50 2.59 Emissions Analysis 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 EAFs (Longs) 0.1 0.1 0.0 EAFs (Total) BOFs (Total) 0.1 EAFs (Flats) 0.1 2.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.5 0.2 BOFs (Total) EAFs (Flats) EAFs (Longs) EAFs (Total) Slab rerollers 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 Hot-rolled steel carbon intensities 2.6 Scope 1 Scope 3 Scope 2 Scope 3 Scope 1 Scope 2 Crude steel carbon intensities DATA: CRU 13