[Critical Thinking]
1. Who says so – who is the one who is publishing the result? Do they have anything to gain from the result
2. How does he know – how did they measure this result?
3. Was there any sampling bias?
4. Did someone change the subject – Are the cause and effect getting muddled?
Does it make sense?
2. Fact About NTHU
• The Ratio Between Male and Female Student is 6:4 in
National Tsing Hua University.
=This means you have a high chance of end
up surrounded by Male students. (66.666…%)
3. Economics 1:1
動機系4/100 = 4%!!!
(This really depends in which Department)
中文系1:10
外文系2:13
工工系1:1
4.
5.
6. Is there Something
Wrong?
• NTHU
• Smokers
• Guns
• An average salary is a common victim of this fact
usages.
7. Outline
• Where is Statistic Facts Used
• Avoiding
o Critical Thinking
o Common Knowledge
• Simple Biases
• Different Averages
• Numbers
• Figures
• Activity
• Questions
8. Who Uses Statistic Facts?
• Newspapers
• Magazines
• Real Estate
• Sellers
• Text Books
• Family
• Friends
• Everyone Does
“We live in a fact minded culture”
10. Critical Thinking
• Who says so – who is the one who is publishing the
result? Do they have anything to gain from the result
• How does he know – how did they measure this result?
Was there any sampling bias?
• Did someone change the subject – Are the cause and
effect getting muddled?
• Does it make sense?
11. Common Knowledge
• Geography
• Economy
• Algebra
• Cultural Differences
• History
• …..
12. Sample Bias
• A Bias within the Sample Space
(Tests)
o Build In Bias
• Honesty in Respondent
• Pre-Selected Sample Space
• Personal Pre-Perception
• Unavailable Information with in a time
15. Averages
• Different Type of Averages:
o Arithmetic average / mean: sum of quantities
divided by number of quantities (Grading: GPA)
o Median: the middle point of the data which separates
the data, the midpoint when data is sorted
o Mode: the data point that occurs the most in a given
set of data
16.
17. “The Average You Mention is
Mean, Median or Mode?”
Don’t forget there is always a RANGE
18. Example of Average
• Average pay of the employees is $1000, what does this
mean? This makes most of us think that almost
everyone makes around $2000 – the reader thinks it is
the median. But, the corporation can be talking about an
arithmetic mean, where the boss might be earning say
$10,500 and the rest of the 19 employees earn $500
each – the arithmetic average.
20. How you Number it.
• There 99% Chance you wont…
• There is a 0.01 Chance…
• There is a 1% Chance
• 1 out 100 Student…
• A Friend of your friend… (Getting Personal)
24. Hipoptasitis
• Arrived Asia: End of Summer
• Deaths: 2,000 Adults & 400 Infants
• Transmission 1 out of 40
• Side effect Risk 0.5%
25. HIP VACCINE
SALES
You really really want to sell
this because is almost 200%
of revenue!!
Peace Keepers
You believe this vaccine is
unnecessary and actually
the rate of getting this
epithetic is very low.
You believe that the risk of
side effects is too high.
26. Review the
Question
• Who says so – who is the one who is publishing the
result? Do they have anything to gain from the result?
• How does he know – how did they measure this result?
Was there any sampling bias?
• Did someone change the subject – Are the cause and
effect getting muddled?
• Does it make sense?
27. Review
• Common Mistakes?
• Average?
• Questions to be asked?
• Using Numbers and Figures