1. Michael Aponte
Assumptions: Projections utilized regression analysis, moving average, weighted moving average; blended final projections with weights
according to projection type and reliability. No major changes in environment or patient population. No major changes in quality of service,
behavioral risk factors, economic situation, or services desired and rendered. Please see individual service level data at bottom of report.
FY 09 Rampart Admission & Patient Day Projection
Admissions by Medical Service
FY05 FY06 FY07 Proj FY08 Proj FY09
Admissions by Service Actual Actual Actual Final Projection Final Projection
Closed Unit - - - 0 0
Family Practice - Adult 1,255 1,231 1,248 1670 1652
Gynecology 469 710 621 548 613
Medicine 5,302 5,163 5,381 5563 5574
Neurology 1 1 - 0 0
NICU 283 319 314 271 284
Newborn Nursery 3,197 3,525 3,401 3449 3531
Obstetrics 3,716 3,891 3,865 3922 3978
Pediatrics 1,284 1,396 1,420 1582 1626
PICU 83 105 110 77 88
Psychiatry 1,116 1,160 1,227 1227 1265
Surgery 2,157 2,064 2,159 2369 2357
Total 18,863 19,565 19,746 20677 20969
Admissions per Day 51.7 53.5 54.1 56.6 57.5
Total calendar days 365 366 365 365 365
(.5 extrap .25
moving .25 wt
moving) 2008
(.6 regress .2
moving .2 wt
moving) 2009
Average Daily Census
FY08 FY09
Days by Servic Projected Projected
Closed Unit 0.0 0.0
Family Practi 16.1 14.2
Gynecology 4.3 5.1
Medicine 74.5 74.2
Neurology 0.0 0.0
NICU 12.3 13.3
Newborn Nurs 24.1 24.6
Obstetrics 27.0 27.1
Pediatrics 11.8 11.8
PICU 0.9 1.6
Psychiatry 23.8 24.1
Surgery 26.3 26.7
Total 221.2 222.7
Patient Days by Medical Service
FY05 FY06 FY07 Proj FY08 Proj FY09
Days by Service Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected
Closed Unit - - - 0 0
Family Practice - Adult 5,693 5,855 5,132 5865 5200
Gynecology 1,380 1,800 1,686 1586 1851
Medicine 27,067 26,438 27,299 27208 27095
Neurology 58 3 - 0 0
NICU 5,541 5,502 4,958 4482 4848
Newborn Nursery 7,410 8,572 8,452 8803 8983
Obstetrics 9,493 9,583 9,829 9864 9895
Pediatrics 3,626 3,886 4,145 4293 4297
PICU 317 408 531 343 566
Psychiatry 8,893 8,753 8,877 8685 8810
Surgery 10,109 9,678 9,937 9593 9741
Total 79,587 80,478 80,846 80,721 81,285
Length of Stay
FY08 FY09
Days by Service Projected Projected
Closed Unit 0.0 0.0
Family Practice - A 3.5 3.1
Gynecology 2.9 3.0
Medicine 4.9 4.9
Neurology 0.0 0.0
NICU 16.6 17.1
Newborn Nursery 2.6 2.5
Obstetrics 2.5 2.5
Pediatrics 2.7 2.6
PICU 4.4 6.4
Psychiatry 7.1 7.0
Surgery 4.0 4.1
Total 3.9 3.9
Admissions by Service Closed Unit Family PracticGynecologyMedicine Neurology NICU Newborn NurObstetrics Pediatrics PICU Psychiatry Surgery Total Admissions per Day Total calen
1 Actual 2005 0 1255 469 5302 1 283 3197 3716 1284 83 1116 2157 18863 51.7 365
2 Actual 2006 0 1231 710 5163 1 319 3525 3891 1396 105 1160 2064 19565 53.5 366
3 Actual 2007 0 1248 621 5381 0 314 3401 3865 1420 110 1227 2159 19746 54.1 365
4 Extrapolated 2008 0 1883 522 5703 0 253.5 3486 3970.5 1689 66 1257 2490 21320 58.4 365
5 Project (excel) 2009 0 1879 598 5742.5 -1 269 3588 4045 1757 79.5 1312.5 2491 21761 59.6 365
5 Project (regress) 2009 0 1879 598 5742.5 -1 269 3588 4045 1757 79.5 1312.5 2491 21761 59.6 365
4 Project (3yr moving avg) 2008 0 1245 600 5282 1 305 3374 3824 1367 99 1168 2127 19391 53.1 365
5 Project (w 3yr mov avg) 2009 0 1241 644 5275 1 313 3433 3860 1394 105 1185 2117 19567 53.6 365
4 Project (3yr weighted moving avg) 2008 0 1670 548 5563 0 271 3449 3922 1582 77 1227 2369 20677 56.6 365
5 Project (3yr weighted moving avg) 2009 0 1383 626 5369 0 301 3458 3893 1466 97 1205 2197 19996 54.8 365
4 Final Project (.5 extrap .25 moving .25 wt moving) 2008 0 1670 548 5563 0 271 3449 3922 1582 77 1227 2369 20677 56.6 365
5 Final Project (.6 regress .2 moving .2 wt moving) 2009 0 1652 613 5574 0 284 3531 3978 1626 88 1265 2357 20969 57.5 365
Days by Service Closed Unit Family PracticGynecologyMedicine Neurology NICU Newborn NurObstetrics Pediatrics PICU Psychiatry Surgery Total
1 Actual 2005 0 5693 1380 27067 58 5541 7410 9493 3626 317 8893 10109 79587
2 Actual 2006 0 5855 1800 26438 3 5502 8572 9583 3886 408 8753 9678 80478
3 Actual 2007 0 5132 1686 27299 0 4958 8452 9829 4145 531 8877 9937 80846
4 Extrapolated 2008 0 6285 1458 27465 0 3762 9165 10013 4571 215 8540 9341 80813
5 Project (excel) 2009 0 4999 1928 27167 0 4751 9187 9971 4405 633 8825 9736 81600
4 Project (3yr moving avg) 2008 0 5560 1622 26935 0 5334 8145 9635 3886 419 8841 9908 80283
5 Project (w 3yr mov avg) 2009 0 5329 1805 26968 0 5070 8737 9794 4145 524 8818 9784 80974
4 Project (3yr weighted moving avg) 2008 0 6043 1513 27288 0 4286 8825 9887 4342 283 8640 9530 80636
5 Project (3yr weighted moving avg) 2009 0 5677 1666 27008 0 4915 8616 9766 4124 407 8757 9715 80652
4 Final Project (.5 extrap .25 moving .25 wt moving) 2008 0 5865 1586 27208 0 4482 8803 9864 4293 343 8685 9593 80721
5 Final Project (.6 regress .2 moving .2 wt moving) 2009 0 5200 1851 27095 0 4848 8983 9895 4297 566 8810 9741 81285