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ManpowerGroup
Employment
Outlook Survey
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 2
MEOS Q1 2017 Summary
• At the national level, the NEO is +7%, up two points on the previous quarter:
The highest level of optimism in three years – noteworthy, considering the concern
and warnings about the post-Brexit jobs market.
• High optimism for construction and utilities firms: buoyed by government
investment commitments, outlook rose to 9% and 13% respectively. Construction is at
its highest level in two years; utilities is the biggest riser.
• Private sector sentiment on the up: Private sector firms expect to hire at the fastest
rate in three years to +8%, while public sector hiring is stuck in negative territory.
• Banks are back-sliding: Finance sector optimism falls again to -3, its lowest level in
two and half years as signs of post-Brexit malaise across the industry continues.
• Steady as she goes: Manufacturing and retail/wholesale each ticked up a point to hit
+6 and +7 respectively. Manufacturing continues to perform solidly (if not
spectacularly), while retailers show no sign of post-Brexit nerves.
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-3
-6
-5
-1
1 1 1 1
2 2
3
1
0
2 2
4
6 6
5
7
5
7 7 7
6
5
6
5
6 6
5 5
7
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
National NEO
Increased two points to +7, the most optimist outlook in two years.
2016
MEOS: Since 1Q 2009
2017
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 4
Size of company breakdown
2
8
11
12
5
4
12
13
13
7
1Q '17
4Q '16
+2
+1
+2
+4
+2
QoQ change
NATIONAL
LARGE
MEDIUM
SMALL
MICRO
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 5
1
1
7
2
5
5
6
4
6
5
-1
2
3
4
6
7
7
9
13
7
1Q '17
QoQ change
+2
+7
+5
+1
+2
+1
+2
-4
+1
-2
NATIONAL
UTILITIES
CONSTRUCTION
WHOLSALE & RETAIL
FINANCE & BUSINESS SERVICES
MANUFACTURING
PUBLIC & SOCIAL
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING
MINING & QUARRYING
TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMS
Industry sector breakdown
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 6
Public / private sector breakdown
0
-3
6
5
6
-3
8
7
1Q '17
+2
+2
0
+6
QoQ change
NATIONAL
PRIVATE
PUBLIC
NOT FOR PROFIT*
• Private sector hiring remains strong
• Public sector still hit hard
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 7
Regions and nations breakdown
4
5
-1
3
5
-1
1
4
5
8
8
7
5
2
3
4
5
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
10
7
1Q '17
4Q '16
QoQ change
NATIONAL
EAST
LONDON
EAST MIDLANDS
WEST MIDLANDS
SOUTH WEST
SCOTLAND
YORKS & HUMBER
NORTH EAST
SOUTH EAST
NORTHERN IRELAND
NORTH WEST
WALES
+2
+3
+1
0
+3
+4
+7
+9
+2
+2
+5
-2
-2
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey –
Q1 2017
ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 8
UK employment intention heat map: Q1 2017

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Meos Q1 2017

  • 2. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 2 MEOS Q1 2017 Summary • At the national level, the NEO is +7%, up two points on the previous quarter: The highest level of optimism in three years – noteworthy, considering the concern and warnings about the post-Brexit jobs market. • High optimism for construction and utilities firms: buoyed by government investment commitments, outlook rose to 9% and 13% respectively. Construction is at its highest level in two years; utilities is the biggest riser. • Private sector sentiment on the up: Private sector firms expect to hire at the fastest rate in three years to +8%, while public sector hiring is stuck in negative territory. • Banks are back-sliding: Finance sector optimism falls again to -3, its lowest level in two and half years as signs of post-Brexit malaise across the industry continues. • Steady as she goes: Manufacturing and retail/wholesale each ticked up a point to hit +6 and +7 respectively. Manufacturing continues to perform solidly (if not spectacularly), while retailers show no sign of post-Brexit nerves.
  • 3. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -3 -6 -5 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 4 6 6 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 7 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 National NEO Increased two points to +7, the most optimist outlook in two years. 2016 MEOS: Since 1Q 2009 2017
  • 4. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 4 Size of company breakdown 2 8 11 12 5 4 12 13 13 7 1Q '17 4Q '16 +2 +1 +2 +4 +2 QoQ change NATIONAL LARGE MEDIUM SMALL MICRO
  • 5. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 5 1 1 7 2 5 5 6 4 6 5 -1 2 3 4 6 7 7 9 13 7 1Q '17 QoQ change +2 +7 +5 +1 +2 +1 +2 -4 +1 -2 NATIONAL UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION WHOLSALE & RETAIL FINANCE & BUSINESS SERVICES MANUFACTURING PUBLIC & SOCIAL AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING MINING & QUARRYING TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMS Industry sector breakdown
  • 6. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 6 Public / private sector breakdown 0 -3 6 5 6 -3 8 7 1Q '17 +2 +2 0 +6 QoQ change NATIONAL PRIVATE PUBLIC NOT FOR PROFIT* • Private sector hiring remains strong • Public sector still hit hard
  • 7. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 7 Regions and nations breakdown 4 5 -1 3 5 -1 1 4 5 8 8 7 5 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 7 1Q '17 4Q '16 QoQ change NATIONAL EAST LONDON EAST MIDLANDS WEST MIDLANDS SOUTH WEST SCOTLAND YORKS & HUMBER NORTH EAST SOUTH EAST NORTHERN IRELAND NORTH WEST WALES +2 +3 +1 0 +3 +4 +7 +9 +2 +2 +5 -2 -2
  • 8. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2017 ManpowerGroup Friday, December 9, 2016 8 UK employment intention heat map: Q1 2017

Editor's Notes

  1. Big increase in the not for profit sector. Public sector still low. Private sector hiring remains resilient.