TeamLease Employment Outlook Survey - Oct-Dec, 2010

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TeamLease Employment Outlook Survey - Oct-Dec, 2010

  1. 1. Prepared by: inTouch analytics http://www.be-in-touch.comTeamLeaseEmployment Outlook Report Quarter-16, October-December 2010
  2. 2. Contents1. Preface2. Executive Summary3. Project Objectives4. Index definitions 4.1. Employment Outlook Index 4.2. Employment Trend Index 4.3. Business Outlook Index 4.4. Business Confidence Index5. Employment Outlook 5.1. Net Employment Outlook 5.2. Net Employment Outlook Growth – by sector 5.3. Net Employment Outlook Growth – by city6. Business Outlook 6.1. Net Business Outlook 6.2. Net Business Outlook Growth – by sector 6.3. Net Business Outlook Growth – by city7. Hiring Intent 7.1. Hiring Intent by Location 7.2. Hiring Intent by Hierarchy 7.3. Hiring Intent by Functional Area8. Other Trends 8.1. Employment Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown 8.2. Business Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown 8.3. Attrition trends by sector 8.4. Attrition trends by city9. Employment & Business Outlook: a trend analysis10. Annexure 10.1. Research Methodology 10.2. Sample Design & Data Collection 10.3. Reasons for Attrition – the employer perspectivehttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  3. 3. 1. Preface TeamLease Services brings out the Employment Outlook Report once every quarter with the purpose of providing human resource policy and decision makers a forward looking tool that tracks hiring sentiments in the market. The report carries an insight into what businesses of various sizes – across the country and across industry sectors – have on their talent acquisition anvil for the immediate next three months. The Employment Outlook Survey is carried out, and the analysis done, in the preceding quarter. The edition you have in your hand is an improvisation on previous editions. It illustrates those areas – sectors and cities – that have a significant increase / decrease is sentiment measures. It also carries an analysis of city-sector clusters that have emerged over the several quarters of this report tracking Employment sentiment. [Please visit www.teamlease.com for archives]. The Employment Outlook Survey spans eight industry sectors and eight cities across India. The survey covers small, medium and large companies across these sectors, studies attrition and employment trends, and gleans information on hiring sentiments, all this covering different locations, hierarchical levels and functional areas. With the most critical drivers that influence hiring being tracked quarter on quarter, the Employment Outlook Report is the only one of its kind seeking to deliver high impact hiring decision support to its stakeholders – Business & HR heads, Senior Management as well as industry policy makers.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  4. 4. 2. Executive Summary • The Net Employment Outlook Index improves by 4 percent points, Q-on-Q, and is forecast at +68 for the period October—December 2010. While there is a very healthy, 10 percent point surge in the Net Business Outlook Index – a cumulated 30 percent points over 12 months – to +71, employer sentiment on hiring seems to be sobering down and a consolidation seems inevitable in hiring numbers and patterns. • The sobering of hiring sentiment and therefore deceleration of the Net Employment Outlook Index have clear patterns across sectors as well as across cities. Retail & FMCG is the only sector with a significant improvement in the Net Employment Outlook Index (8 percent points) during the present quarter even as there is a significant drop in the index (6 percent points) for ITeS. Among cities, Mumbai (with 7 percent points) is the only one with a significant improvement in the index value. • Infrastructure and Telecommunications drive the Net Business Outlook Index up with 10 percent point improvements apiece. It needs to be noted, however, that beside the above, there is no other sector, or even city, contributing to the upsurge. The improvements in the indices are sub-5 percent points – in general – across all other sectors and cities. • The Hiring Intent measures do not vary appreciably by location or by functional area, but see some very significant pattern variation in terms of hierarchical positions. There is a levelling off of sorts between sentiment for the Entry Level and that for Middle Level positions. Entry Level hires are set to be even more popular (with a 9 percent point increase to +41), and Middle Level positions lose lustre with a drop of 5 percept points to +41. • Metro cities continue their dominance with a further 2 percent point improvement in Hiring Intent this quarter. Tier-III towns follow suit however, and along with a marginal improvement by Tier-II cities, the less privileged geographies are gradually incrementing their status in the employment market. • Engineering, as a functional area, emerges as a strong and clear contender for the second most sought after position in terms of Hiring Intent. Sales/Marketing/Customer Service loses marginally and is far ahead in Hiring Intent. The ‘Other’ category is witnessing incremental improvements as well implying a further addition of newer categories. • While the exuberance of business growth continues, its sway over employment sentiment is waning. This, however, has little effect on attrition levels – which increase marginally across geography and business sectors. All in all, therefore, the consolidation could also mean a relatively better supply-demand scenario in the employment market.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  5. 5. 3. Project Objectives The Employment Outlook Report aims at – • Providing forward looking estimates of hiring sentiment and thus enabling its users with a tool to make effective hiring / people decisions for the immediate next quarter. • Providing *Hiring Sentiment Intelligence* for different industry sectors, business sizes and geographies, as well as across hierarchical levels and functional areas. 4. Index Definitions • Employment Outlook Index: The Employment Outlook Index is computed as the difference in the proportion of respondents who report an increase in hiring needs and those who report a decline in hiring needs over the next three months. • Business Outlook Index: The Business Outlook Index is computed by subtracting the percentage respondents who say business in the next three months is likely to decrease from the percentage who say it will increase.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  6. 6. 5. Employment Outlook 5.1. Net Employment Outlook 5.2. Net Employment Outlook Growth – by sector 5.3. Net Employment Outlook Growth – by cityhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  7. 7. 5.1 Net Employment OutlookThere is a 4 percent point increase in the ‘Net Employment Outlook Index’ forecast for theforthcoming quarter [October through December 2010]. The Net Employment Outlook Index isthe difference in the proportion of respondents reporting an increase in hiring needs and thosereporting a decline for the quarter in question.Quarter Period (Figures in percentage) Increase Decrease No Change Net Business Outlook 16 Oct—Dec 2010 72 4 24 +68 15 Jul—Sep 2010 69 5 26 +64 14 Apr—Jun 2010 62 4 35 +58 13 Jan—Mar 2010 51 4 46 +47The increase in the Index is not significant this quarter as is illustrated by the shading of thecells in the table above. Shaded cells have significant increases (gray) /decreases (red) in Index.The Employment Index witnesses a stabilizing effect on sentiment this quarter. Even asBusiness Outlook surges, the Employment Outlook is seen to increase relatively marginally.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  8. 8. 5.2 Net Employment Outlook Growth – by sectorSentiments climb up for a host of sectors, although only marginally, with ITeS being the soleexception of a drop in sentiment – and a significant drop at that. Sectors (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase / Decrease 16 15 14 13IT 74 71 69 59 +03ITES 60 66 62 47 -06Financial Services 65 60 53 45 +05[FS]Retail & FMCG [R&F] 69 61 61 38 +08Infrastructure [INF] 63 57 36 69 +06Manufacturing & 68 66 53 38 +02Engineering [M&E]Telecom [TEL] 61 59 48 50 +02Healthcare & 74 70 72 55 +04Pharma [H&P]Retail & FMCG sees the biggest jump in sentiment and the only case where the increase in theindex value is significant. Information Technology and Healthcare & Pharma are characterizedby two consecutive quarters of marginal growth in index values.http://www.be-in-touch.com
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  10. 10. 5.3 Net Employment Outlook Growth – by cityAt a city level, index values increase only marginally this quarter, with Mumbai being the soleexception. Sectors (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase / Decrease 16 15 14 13Mumbai [Mum] 70 63 49 41 +07Delhi [Del] 67 62 43 35 +05Bangalore [Blr] 80 82 78 55 -02Kolkata [Kol] 58 54 63 47 +04Chennai [Chn] 66 62 64 54 +04Pune [Pun] 77 79 75 70 -02Hyderabad [Hyd] 64 63 57 54 +01Ahmedabad [Ahd] 73 68 54 37 +05In most cases (again, Mumbai being the only exception), an index value of 60 and above seemsto be a ceiling. The sentiment increases only marginally beyond the 60’s. However, it needs tobe noted that – as in case of Bangalore and Pune where incremental increases in sentiment upthe index to very high value – sentiments across cities are trending very high in general. Thisimplies that an ebullient – albeit stable – job market is in the offing over the next few quarters.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  11. 11. http://www.be-in-touch.com
  12. 12. 7. Business Outlook 6.1. Net Business Outlook 6.2. Net Business Outlook Growth – by sector 6.3. Net Business Outlook Growth – by cityhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  13. 13. 6.1 Net Business OutlookAn appreciable increase in the Net Business Outlook Index points to a surge in positive businesssentiment for Oct—Dec 2010. With 3/4ths of all respondents bullish about business prospectsfor the forthcoming quarter, the Index hits a 12-month high.Quarter Period (Figures in percentage) Increase Decrease No Change Net Business Outlook 16 Oct-Dec 2010 75 4 21 +71 15 Jul-Sep 2010 68 7 25 +61 14 Apr-Jun 2010 60 4 36 +56 13 Jan-Mar 2010 50 9 41 +41http://www.be-in-touch.com
  14. 14. 6.2 Net Business Outlook Growth – by sectorThe Index is propped up by marginal increases in individual sector index values, withInfrastructure and Telecom driving this growth more than all other sectors. Sectors (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase / Decrease 16 15 14 13IT 72 73 64 48 -01ITES 63 66 60 44 -03Financial Services 58 57 55 45 +01[FS]Retail & FMCG [R&F] 67 65 55 22 +02Infrastructure [INF] 56 46 38 55 +10Manufacturing & 70 64 56 41 +06Engineering [M&E]Telecom [TEL] 51 41 25 32 +10Healthcare & 81 76 71 64 +05Pharma [H&P]The Infrastructure and Telecom sectors continue their dream run and raise their index values torespective 12-month highs.http://www.be-in-touch.com
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  16. 16. 6.3 Net Business Outlook Growth – by cityCities consolidate the already high values of the Net Business Outlook Indices and seem topresent a rosy overall picture of business sentiment. Sectors (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase/Decrease 16 15 14 13Mumbai [Mum] 54 52 42 21 +02Delhi [Del] 52 49 40 36 +03Bangalore [Blr] 79 73 56 49 +06Kolkata [Kol] 77 76 78 58 +01Chennai [Chn] 70 72 69 60 -02Pune [Pun] 83 80 75 77 +03Hyderabad [Hyd] 80 74 63 35 +06Ahmedabad [Ahd] 77 77 59 31 NCBangalore and Hyderabad have similar and sizeable increases in their index values. AlongsidePune, Ahmedabad and Kolkata, these two cities have an astounding 75% plus net positivesentiment. Except for Pune, the 4 other cities mentioned above have seen a 12-month growthof 50% or more in their index values.http://www.be-in-touch.com
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  18. 18. 9. Hiring Intent 7.1. Hiring Intent by Location 7.2. Hiring Intent by Hierarchy 7.3. Hiring Intent by Functional Areahttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  19. 19. 7.1 Hiring Intent by LocationWhile the metros are in stabilization mode, tier-2 and 3 cities/towns are nipping at their heelswith steady increase in hiring intent. However, the Hiring Intent trends are incremental and itcould take a while for the lesser privileged parts of India to make a difference. City (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase/ Decrease 16 15 14 13Metro 88 86 84 87 +02Tier – II Cities 20 19 16 15 +01Tier – III Towns 9 7 6 2 +02Rural 2 2 1 2 NChttp://www.be-in-touch.com
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  21. 21. 7.2 Hiring Intent by HierarchyA clear upward trend in hiring entry level talent marks a major shift in hiring patterns over the12 month period. Following a temporary fillip, middle level hiring is back to near 12-month lowlevels and hiring intent at senior levels is more or less stagnant. The other significantdevelopment is the sharp reduction in the proportion of those not hiring. Level (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase/ Decrease 16 15 14 13Entry Level 41 32 20 26 +09[No Experience]Junior Level 63 61 44 40 +02[1 – 3 years Experience]Middle Level 41 46 51 40 -05[3 – 7 years Experience]Senior Level 21 21 23 20 NC[> 7 years Experience]Not Hiring 16 12 20 26 +04http://www.be-in-touch.com
  22. 22. 7.3 Hiring Intent by Functional AreaThe intent to hire Engineers sees a second significant increase and positions Engineers firmly asthe second most sought after category of hires. The gradual increase in the number for ‘Others’is indicative of even more emerging categories in hiring consideration. F (Figures in percentage) Quarter Net Increase / Decrease 16 15 14 13Sales / Marketing / 75 78 71 71 -03Customer Service [SMC]IT 23 24 22 19 -01Engineering [ENG] 39 33 32 26 +06Accounts / Finance 16 18 17 16 -02[A&F]Administration / HR / 12 13 17 10 -01Office Service [AHO]Blue Collar [BC]* 31 28 - - +03Other 11 6 27 12 +05Not hiring 10 8 - - +02*Previously included under ‘Others’http://www.be-in-touch.com
  23. 23. http://www.be-in-touch.com
  24. 24. 11. Other Trends 8.1. Employment Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown 8.2. Business Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown 8.3. Attrition trends by sector 8.4. Attrition trends by cityhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  25. 25. 8.1 Employment Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown City Quarter Total Sector IT ITeS FS RMF INF M&E TEL H&PMum 16 70 10 8 9 10 14 6 7 11 15 63 9 13 6 7 12 5 7 9 14 49 8 10 4 7 6 3 4 7 Del 16 67 10 2 13 15 4 10 8 10 15 62 8 4 10 12 3 10 8 9 14 43 6 0 6 11 -2 6 4 10 Blr 16 80 12 7 3 6 16 15 14 12 15 82 12 10 2 6 17 15 15 11 14 78 12 9 - 5 14 11 14 14 Kol 16 58 3 1 15 12 4 8 2 20 15 54 2 2 13 11 3 9 3 20 14 63 - - 19 14 - 8 - 22 Chn 16 66 12 7 10 6 9 8 11 9 15 62 10 9 11 3 9 8 12 8 14 64 9 9 9 5 6 7 10 9http://www.be-in-touch.com
  26. 26. Pun 16 77 17 14 5 3 21 18 3 6 15 79 16 18 3 1 22 17 3 5 14 75 20 20 - - 20 16 - - Hyd 16 64 8 10 4 11 8 15 4 7 15 63 8 11 4 10 8 15 5 5 14 57 6 7 0 10 2 10 - 7 Ahd 16 73 4 2 23 5 6 17 5 24 15 68 2 3 20 3 5 14 2 25 14 54 0 0 18 0 0 12 0 238.2 Business Outlook Index – city-sector drilldown City Quarter Total Sector IT ITeS FS RMF INF M&E TEL H&PMum 16 54 12 7 7 6 16 9 5 6 15 52 13 10 5 4 13 7 2 6 14 42 8 8 5 2 10 5 -2 6 Del 16 52 9 2 6 15 7 7 9 10 15 49 9 2 5 15 3 6 7 9 14 40 6 1 5 12 -2 4 3 9http://www.be-in-touch.com
  27. 27. Blr 16 79 16 7 9 2 14 13 13 12 15 73 15 8 9 2 9 11 13 10 14 56 11 7 8 - 5 8 9 8 Kol 16 77 7 5 20 6 7 17 5 23 15 76 7 5 19 6 4 16 2 22 14 39 0 0 13 0 8 4 0 5 Chn 16 70 8 19 7 5 6 11 10 16 15 72 9 21 7 5 5 10 11 15 14 69 8 18 8 5 4 8 13 11 Pun 16 83 15 20 3 2 24 16 7 9 15 80 17 22 2 2 21 15 3 7 14 75 16 21 0 0 23 14 0 0 Hyd 16 80 14 9 15 5 7 12 3 21 15 74 14 9 16 3 4 11 1 19 14 63 10 8 16 - 3 10 - 16 Ahd 16 77 4 4 22 6 2 22 3 22 15 77 5 4 21 5 2 21 2 22 14 59 0 0 20 0 0 19 0 20http://www.be-in-touch.com
  28. 28. 8.3 Attrition Trends – by cityAttrition trends crane upwards marginally for the forthcoming quarter, the increment reflectingbullish market sentiment and stabilized hiring patterns by employers. City-specificcharacteristics stay the same while almost all cities witness slight increase in attrition rates.8.4 Attrition Trends – by sectorSector-wise attrition trends exhibit a pattern similar to those with cities. The marginal increaseis across the board with ITeS and Infrastructure breaching 10% levels at both quarter andannual timescales of attrition.http://www.be-in-touch.com
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  30. 30. 13. Employment & Business Outlook: a trend analysis 9.1. Trends flip for the Indices 9.2. City & Sector-wise analysis 9.2.1. Cities profiled by the most/lease impact across sectors 9.2.2. Sectors profiled by the most/lease impact across citieshttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  31. 31. 9.1 Trends flip for the IndicesWhile it is a known phenomenon that the two indices – for the Business and the EmploymentOutlook – are closely correlated, a recent trend is becoming increasingly noticeable. Over themost recent two quarters, the Employment Outlook Index is trailing the Business Outlook Index– as seen at the tail end of the two trend lines in the below chart – for the first time in 9quarters. Employment & Business Outlook Trends [over the past 9 quarters] 80 R² = 0.974 70 R² = 0.943 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -10 Average of Total Index_E Average of Total Index_B Poly. (Average of Total Index_E) Poly. (Average of Total Index_B)Trends for Business and Employment Outlook correlated at 84.6%This implies an important shift in the hiring behavior of businesses. Historically, employers’sentiment for hiring was higher than their business sentiment, during any given quarter. Withbusiness sentiment improving consistently over 6 subsequent quarters, the employmentmarket seems to be gradually sobering their hiring sentiment. This sign of maturity is moreevident when one looks at the trend lines for the 16th quarter.Apparently, the Employment Outlook is at a high but is very likely to flatten – even if businesssentiment increases over the next few quarters. This could imply a more stable employmentregime for the foreseeable future.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  32. 32. 9.2 City- and Sector-wise analysisAs the employment market reaches a stage of consolidation and stabilization, thecharacteristics of each of the cities and sectors become more and more predictable. The belowanalysis profiles cities and sectors based on the variance in Business and Employment Outlookfor each city-sector combination, and illustrates cases where there is high or low incidence ofindices.9.2.1. Cities profiled by the most/lease impact across sectors City trends by sectors: Bangalore [over the past 9 quarters] FS 10 9 8 Tel H&P 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 RMF 0 Inf M&E IT ITeS Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_Bhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  33. 33. City trends by sectors: Mumbai [over the past 9 quarters] FS 8 7 Tel 6 H&P 5 4 3 2 1 RMF 0 Inf M&E IT ITeS Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_BThe Employment and Business Outlook indices are relatively higher in case of Bangalore andMumbai, for as many 4 sectors each. Bangalore seems to be favoured by IT and Healthcare &Pharma while it fares modestly on Telecommunication and Manufacturing & Engineering.Mumbai does well on Infrastructure, IT and Financial Services and scores decently onHealthcare & Pharma, Retail & FMCG and ITeS.On the other hand, Pune and Ahmedabad have sentiments leaning more towards just 4 sectorsin all – Pune favours IT and Manufacturing & Engineering, and Ahmedabad is primarily aHealthcare & Pharma hub with a modest score on Manufacturing & Engineering.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  34. 34. City trends by sectors: Pune [over the past 9 quarters] FS 18 16 14 Tel H&P 12 10 8 6 4 2 RMF 0 Inf M&E IT ITeS Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_B City trends by sectors: Ahmedabad [over the past 9 quarters] FS 16 14 Tel 12 H&P 10 8 6 4 2 RMF 0 Inf M&E IT ITeS Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_Bhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  35. 35. 9.2.2. Sectors profiled by the most/lease impact across cities Sector trends by city: Infrastructure [over the past 9 quarters] Ahd 9 8 7 Pun Blr 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mum 0 Chn Kol Del Hyd Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_B Sector trends by city: Financial Services [over the past 9 quarters] Ahd 12 10 Pun Blr 8 6 4 2 Mum 0 Chn Kol Del Hyd Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_BSectors profiled by city present a converse view of employment market sentiment.Infrastructure has Pune, Mumbai, Kolkata and Hyderabad as the most sought after cities.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  36. 36. Financial Services businesses predominantly favour Kolkata and Ahmedabad and are otherwisemodestly spread across most other cities.IT has its sentiments biased heavily in favour of Pune while Hyderabad is a distant second.Likewise, Telecommunications businesses favour Delhi the most, while Bangalore and Chennaiare a distant second. Sector trends by city: IT [over the past 9 quarters] Ahd 18 16 14 Pun Blr 12 10 8 6 4 2 Mum 0 Chn Kol Del Hyd Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_Bhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  37. 37. Sector trends by city: Telecommunications [over the past 9 quarters] Ahd 10 9 8 Pun Blr 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mum 0 Chn Kol Del Hyd Average of Sector Index_E Average of Sector Index_Bhttp://www.be-in-touch.com
  38. 38. - 9. Annexure Research Methodology The Employment Outlook Survey follows a rigorous and statistically validated process as detailed below. Sample Design & Data Collection Random sampling technique was used to identify respondents for the survey. Data sources used to collect contact data were: 1. Kompass directory for small, medium and large sized companies in the private sector. To ensure continuity with the baseline measurement, the core random sample was drawn from this database. 2. NASSCOM database for IT companies 3. Companies registered with bpo.india.org in the case of ITES and 4. Financial companies registered with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Respondent Selection Target respondents for the study were Business & HR Heads as well as Senior Managers with hiring mandates. The databases offered a contact name for each company listed. Interviewers called into each of these companies and obtained the names of the appropriate individuals who were responsible for hiring decisions. Data Collection The survey instrument was then administered to the target respondents using the CATI (Computer Aided Telephonic Interview) methodology. Appropriate computer software was used for data collection and tabulation. Please refer the following section named ‘Sample Distribution’ for details on city and business size-wise breakup of the sample.http://www.be-in-touch.com
  39. 39. Sample DistributionCity-wise breakupSectors / City Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Kolkata Chennai Pune Hyderabad Ahmedabad TotalManufacturing &Engineering [M&E] 10 10 10 8 11 11 12 8 80Retail & FMCG[R&F] 25 13 10 10 11 9 9 10 97Financial Services[FS] 11 9 12 10 10 10 11 9 82IT 9 10 12 9 10 10 9 8 77ITeS 8 9 11 6 10 10 9 9 72Infrastructure [INF] 10 11 10 7 7 10 10 8 73Telecom [TEL] 12 12 14 8 8 10 6 7 77Healthcare & Pharma[H&P] 9 10 9 8 8 9 7 6 66Total 94 84 88 66 75 79 73 65 624Business Size Breakup Small Medium Large [Up to 249 employees] [250 – 999 employees] [1,000 or more employees]Mumbai 24 58 12Delhi 15 55 14Bangalore 25 46 17Kolkata 15 45 6Chennai 16 42 17Pune 14 51 14Hyderabad 13 49 11Ahmedabad 21 34 10http://www.be-in-touch.com
  40. 40. For more information:http://twitter.com/be_in_touchhttp://facebook.com/intouchanalyticshttp://linkedin.com/companies/305009http://www.be-in-touch.com

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