Economic effects of carbon reductio policies in Ukraine up to the year 2050 are estimated using dynamic Computable general equilibrium model.

1. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Economic Impacts of Carbon Reduction Policies
Maksym Chepeliev
Institute for Economics and Forecasting, Ukrainian NAS
chepeliev@ief.org.ua
May 19, 2015
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2. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Outline
1 Carbon policy and economy
2 Modelling framework
3 Investigated scenarios
4 Modelling results
5 Summary
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3. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Eects of carbon tax on labor, investments and output:
common view
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4. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Multiple dividends of carbon policies
Key drivers:
Revenue redistribution approach.
The time frame of analysis.
Climate and health benets.
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5. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
What is CGE model?
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) is a modelling framework
that includes:
producers that are maximizing prots and minimizing costs;
households that are maximizing utility by choosing
consumption volumes based on price signals;
markets, which balance supply and demand for each product;
other economic agents: Government, investors, security funds
etc.
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6. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
CGE model for Ukraine: key features
Recursive-dynamic.
Has updated base year 2015.
Includes multiple (structural) benchmark scenarios to the year
2050.
Incorporates heterogeneous households dierentiated by
income level (10 groups).
Producers are disaggregated into 40 economic activities.
Has separate treatment of Government budget, Retirement
fund and dierent Social security funds.
Special representation of energy subsidies.
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7. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
CGE model for Ukraine: circular ow
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8. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Simulation procedure
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9. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Benchmark macroeconomic assumptions
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10. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Carbon policy scenario
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11. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Macroeconomic eects
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12. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Sectoral eects
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13. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Additional scenario (no technological change)
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14. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Summary
Key role of technological changes.
Eciency of proposed redistribution scheme.
Structural shifts in the national economy.
Residential energy saving and eciency.
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15. Carbon policy and economy Modelling framework Scenarios Results Summary
Thank you!
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