13th february 2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA RiceNewsletter
Volume 5, Issue I
February 13, 2015

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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Give Back Gains Earned
Overnight as Market Fails to Find Follow-
through Buying
Feb 12, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$10.330 per cwt (about $228 per ton). Rough rice futures retraced slightly today as the market
was unable to build on gains earned overnight and in the previous session as the market now
faces technical resistance around $10.400 per cwt (about $229 per ton) from the 10-day moving
average. Traders will likely keep an eye out for a close above this downwardly sloping level of
resistance as a short term signal that the market has indeed put in a near-term low and that a
recovery is underway.
In the meantime the market will likely continue to experience choppy back-and-forth trading as
until a new trend is formed. The other grains finished the day with mixed results as wheat and
corn slipped while soy logged modest gains; Soybeans closed about 0.6% higher at $9.8375 per
bushel; wheat finished about 0.9% lower at $5.2125 per bushel, and corn finished the day about
0.7% lower at $3.8300 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday as investors cheered a
cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine and firming oil prices. Greece was unable to
reach a deal with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen
Dijsselbloem said on Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday. The Nasdaq traded
more than 1 percent higher after opening at its highest level since March 2000, the peak of the
dotcom bubble. Apple continued to trade at all-time highs. Better-than-expected earnings from
Cisco and other firms in the U.S. and Europe boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 at a high for
2015. Jobless claims were 304,000 last week, more than expected and an increase of 25,000 from
last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 83 points, or 0.47%, at 17,495. The S&P 500
traded up 15 points, or 0.73%, to 2,083, with information technology leading gains and utilities
leading two laggards. The Nasdaq traded up 44 points, or 0.93%, to 4,845. Gold is trading about
0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.9% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading
about 0.8% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 1,686 contracts traded,

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down from 2,340 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts
outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 263 contracts to 10,180.
FAO Forecasts Mixed Prospects for
Madagascar 2015 Paddy Rice Production
Feb 12, 2015
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that prospects for 2015 rice
production are mixed because of heavy rains in western, central and eastern parts due to cyclone
Chedza on one hand and dry conditions in the southern regions on the other. Harvesting of 2015
main rice crop (October - June) will begin in April and may extend till June.
The cyclone Chedza, which traversed the southern areas in mid January 2015, led to heavy
rainfall across large parts of the country, causing flooding and damaging nearly 24,000 hectares
of paddy fields. According to the FAO, assessments are still underway to determine the exact

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level of damage. Heavy rainfall is expected in some areas until mid-February. Southern regions
received lesser rainfall at the start of the cropping season in October 2014 leading to concerns of
reduced cereal output and increased food insecurity from these regions.
Inadequate funding for the final third year of the anti-locust campaign is expected to disrupt
operations leading to further rice crop damage and losses.
Madagascar's paddy rice production has increased about 10% to around 4 million tons in 2014
from around 3.6 million tons in 2013 despite uneven rains in the south and impact of locusts. The
increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions in the main rice producing regions of the
central and northern regions coupled with an increase in paddy rice acreage.Average prices of
local rice and imported rice started in
Government of Sri Lanka May not Increase
Paddy Purchase Price
Feb 12, 2015
The government of Sri Lanka may
not increase the paddy purchase
price from the current Rs.50 per
kilogram (around $377 per Ton),
local sources quoted the Minister
of Food Security as saying. The
Minister told local sources that the
Cabinet has been recommended to
maintain the guaranteed paddy
purchase price at the existing level.
Earlier, the government had plans
to increase the guaranteed paddy
purchase price due to a reduction
in production followed by drought.
However, it is understood that the government has decided to retain the paddy purchase price at
existing level due to low prices of wheat flour and bread. Some Parliamentarians expressed
doubt if the government would sustain the paddy purchasing price at Rs. 50 per kilogram without

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lowering it.The government earlier announced that it would intervene in the market if needed to
curb unnecessary price hikes.
Domestic rice prices have been increasing since May 2014 and reached record highs of about
Rs.78,780 (around $600) per tons in October 2014. They reversed in November due to increased
supplies from ongoing harvests of Maha main rice crop (September – April). In December they
declined for the second consecutive month. According to the UN's Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO), average retail price of white rice reached around LKR 78,120 (around
$600) per ton in December 2014, slightly down from around LKR 78,670 (around $600) per ton
in November 2014, and up about 29% from around LKR 60,440 (around $460) per ton in
December 2013.USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.7 million tons of rice, basis
milled (around 3.97 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15
(October 2014 - September 2015).
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Open Higher on Supportive
Export Sales and Surging Crude
Feb 12, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per
ton) higher at $10.420 per cwt (about $230 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading with mixed results: soybeans are currently seen about 0.3% higher,
wheat is listed about 0.7% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.1% lower.U.S. stock opened
higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by a cease-fire agreement between Russia and
Ukraine, shaking off lack of resolution in Greece and weaker-than-expected U.S. data.
The S&P 500 touched a high for 2015, and the Nasdaq Composite opened up at its highest level
since March 2000. Futures trimmed some gains as retail sales for January came in weaker than
expected, down 0.8 percent and near December's 0.9% decline. Retail sales ex-autos declined
0.9%, though when excluding vehicles and gasoline, sales posted a moderate increase to 0.1%
last month after a 0.3% drop in December. Jobless claims were 304,000 last week, more than
expected and an increase of 25,000 from last week. Greece was unable to reach a deal with the
European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, the Eurogroup's Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on
Wednesday, noting talks will continue on Monday.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 4.73 points, or 0.12%, at 17,886.07. The S&P 500
opened up 7.71 points, or 0.37%, at 2,076.30, with information technology leading gains and
telecommunications the only laggard. The Nasdaq opened up 30 points, or 0.63%, at 4,831.12.
Gold is currently trading about 0.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 4.1% higher, and the
U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.6% lower at 8:30am Chicago time.
Philippines NFA Steps Up Efforts to Increase
Paddy Procurement
Feb 12, 2015
The National Food Authority (NFA) Presidential
Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural
Modernization is encouraging farmers to sell their
paddy output to the agency, according to a news release
on the Philippines government website.According to the
news release, the NFA has fixed the paddy procurement
price at around P17 per kilogram (around $384 per ton)
but has decided to provide other incentives to farmers
taking the total price to around P17.7 per kilogram (around $399 per ton). The incentives
include P0.2 per kilogram ($4.5 per ton) delivery incentive, P0.2 per kilogram (around $4.5 per
ton) drying incentive and P0.3 per kilogram (around $6.8 per ton) Cooperative Incentive Fee.
The NFA announced that it is opening 413 buying stations nationwide to buy paddy from
farmers and called on all the farmers to utilize this opportunity to increase their incomes as farm
gate prices have fallen to P14 - P16 per kilogram (around $316 - $361 per ton). The NFA
Administrator noted that mobile procurement stations are being deployed for helping farmers
who cannot transport their output to the buying stations.Recently, farmers are reportedly getting
attracted to selling their output to private traders who have been offering around P18.9 per
kilogram (around $426 per ton).
The NFA aims to purchase 189,845 metric tons (MT) of the unhusked rice from January to June
2015. NFA has already procured 89,497 50-kilogram bags of paddy (4,475 tons of paddy) as of
February 9, 2015.The NFA usually procures about 7-8% of total paddy output to maintain buffer
stocks and ensure price stability. Philippines paddy production reached about 18.97 million tons
in 2014. The NFA imports rice as and when the rice stocks fall below the buffer norms.

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The NFA imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports
and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks and control price
hikes. This year, the NFA is planning to initially import 500,000 tons of rice to ensure adequate
stocks in the lean season (June - August).
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Market Seen
Steady as Buy/Sell Remains Limited
Feb 12, 2015
The U.S. cash market held steady today despite impressive export sales figures as a majority of
the new business was up of medium grain sales to Asia.Analysts insist that farmers will continue
to hold out for better prices until they are forced to sell to either create bin space or to get
financing for next year’s crop while see little interest in paying up today as prices have declined
every month since the beginning of the marketing year.

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In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on
February 5, totaled 125,600 tons, which was considerably higher than last week and 88% higher
than the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for the following destinations: 68,400 tons
to Japan, 24,200 tons to South Korea, 10,100 tons to Mexico, 8,500 tons to unknown
destinations, 5,000 tons to Colombia, while net sales of 100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for
Japan.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 26,800 tons, which was 56% lower than last week and 67% lower
than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included 10,800 tons to Honduras, 6,400
tons to Mexico, 3,600 tons to South Korea, 2,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, and 2,000 tons to
Canada.
Restoration of Duty Drawback Facility on
Rice Exports Brings Cheers to Indian
Exporters
Feb 12, 2015
The government of India has announced
that it is restoring the duty drawback
facility on rice exports after seven years,
according to local sources.The Finance
Ministry has allowed rice exporters to
claim duty drawback on the brand rate
basis. According to official sources,
exporters have to seek rate (of the duty
drawback) approval from the Finance
Ministry individually.The duty drawback
facility allows exporters to claim back the
customs and excise duties paid on inputs
used in the processing of rice. The announcement brought cheers among the exporters, but some
of them noted that the facility could have been extended on All-industry basis rather than on only
brand basis.
The Executive Director of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) noted that they had
been demanding for restoring the duty drawback facility since it was withdrawn in 2008. He
noted that exporters of maize and wheat have been enjoying this facility all these years.India

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exported 10.9 million tons of rice, including 3.7 million tons of basmati and around 7.2 million
tons of non-basmati, in 2013-14 (April - March), up about 7% from around 10.15 million tons in
2012-13.
South Korea Seeks to Buy 44,000 Tons of
Non-Glutinous Rice in Tender
Feb 12, 2015
South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) is seeking to buy
about 44,000 tons of non-glutinous rice in tender for delivery by May 31, 2015, according to a
statement on its website.KAFTC seeks to buy 22,000 tons of U.S. origin non-glutinous short
grain brown rice and 22,000 tons of U.S. origin non-glutinous medium grain brown
rice.Registration of tender will close at 4.00 p.m on February 25, 2015 and electronic bidding
will take place on February 26, 2015 between 10.00 - 11.00 a.m.KAFTC bought 35,000 tons of
non-glutinous rice from Vietnam and the U.S. in tenders on February 10, 2015.
Thailand May Sell At least 500,000 Tons of
Rice from One Million Tons Auctioned
Feb 12, 2015
Thailand may sell at least 500,000
tons of rice to winning bidders from
the one million tons auctioned on
January 29, 2015, Bloomberg quoted
the Thai Prime Minister as saying.
The Prime Minister noted that around
300,000 - 400,000 tons received bids
from companies that are involved in
the ongoing legal cases linked to the
previous government's rice pledging
scheme.
He added that the government is assessing the status of those bidders. On February 9, 2015, the
Department of Foreign Trade said it would submit the names of the winning bidders to the Rice
Policy Committee after examining their credentials.The Thai Commerce Ministry is keen on

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selling around 10 million tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and around 7 million tons in 2016
through tenders. Thailand's military government sold around 681,740 tons of rice in last four
auctions raising around 6.36 billion baht (around $195 million) after it took charge on May 22,
2014. The Thai government currently holds around 17.8 million tons of rice in its
stockpiles.Thailand exported around 10.97 million tons of rice in 2014, up about 66% from
around 6.6 million tons in 2013
Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Feb 12, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around
$355 - $365 per ton and lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by
about $5 per ton each to around $320 - $330 per ton and around $300 - $310 per ton respectively.
Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India
5% rice is quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice
quoted at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $55 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
quoted at around $305 - $315 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at
around $390 - $400 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at
around $385 - $395 per ton.

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100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $20 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, down about $5 per
ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about $20
per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $275 - $285 per ton.
Thai Rice Exporters Fear Drought to Impact
2015 Exports
Feb 12, 2015
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA)
has expressed concern that this year's rice
exports may be hit severely if the ongoing
drought intensifies in April and reduces the off-
season paddy rice output by 1-2 million tons,
according to local sources.The TREA noted that
a lower production scenario would lead to
demand supply imbalance thereby pushing up
local prices. In such a case, export prices would
be affected making Thai rice uncompetitive in
the global market.
Thailand, which exported 10.97 million tons of rice in 2014, is targeting to export 11 million
tons of rice in 2015. The Commerce Ministry and the TREA are working together to formulate
strategies to reach the target and help the South-East nation retain the top exporter status.In its
latest report on production estimates, the Office of the Agricultural Economics (OAE) estimated
the output from the 2014-15 secondary/off-season crop at around 6.7 million tons (around 4.4
million tons, basis milled), down about 31% from around 9.75 million tons (around 6.4 million
tons, basis milled) last year.
The OAE has estimated the country's total paddy rice output for 2014-15 at around 33.8 million
tons (around 22.3 million tons, basis milled), down about 8% from around 36.8 million tons
(around 24.3 million tons, basis milled) last year.A rice production loss could be a boon for the
government of Thailand, especially at a time when it is trying sell its huge rice stockpiles

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accumulated under the previous government’s rice pledging scheme. However, this drought has
so far only affected a small percentage of paddy production and thus is unlikely to support prices
immediately.
FAO forecasts Cuba 2014 Paddy Rice
Production to Increase 4% y/y to 700,000
Tons
Feb 12, 2015
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates Cuba's 2014 paddy rice
production at around 700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis milled), up about 4% from around
673,000 tons (around 437,000, basis milled) produced in 2013 due to higher sowings in both
main (February - December) and second (November - July) seasons. According to the FAO,
harvesting for the 2014 main season harvest concluded in December.
The FAO forecasts Cuba's cereal imports, including those of rice, to decline about 1.5% to
around 2.03 million tons in 2014-15 (July - June) from an estimated 2.061 million tons exported
in 2013-14.USDA estimates Cuba MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production at around
700,000 tons (around 455,000 tons, basis milled), up about 7.5% from around 651,000 tons
(around 423,000 tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates Cuba 2014-15
imports to increase about 12.5% to around 450,000 tons from last year's 400,000 tons.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Feb 12, 2015
In India, a few showers are expected across West Bengal and Odisha on Thursday. Weather is
expected to remain dry from Friday toSunday.
Rain is expected across Indonesia on Thursday and Friday.
Dry weather is expected across Pakistan during this week.
Isolated rain showers are expected across Bangladesh on Thursday and Friday.
A few rain showers are expected across Vietnam during Thursday and Saturday.
Weather is expected to remain dry in Thailand on Thursday. Light rain is expected on Friday
and Saturday there.

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Thai NACC to Recommend Legal Action in
G2G Rice Deals with China
Feb 12, 2015
Thailand's National Anti-Corruption
Commission (NACC) is likely to
recommend to the Commerce and Finance
Ministries to file a civil suit against the 21
state officials and employees of private
firms, including the former Commerce
Minister and the former Deputy
Commerce Minister, for alleged corruption
in rice export deals with two Chinese
firms, according to local sources. In its
investigation, the NACC found that both
the Ministers are accused of falsifying G2G rice deals for about 1.2 million tons between
Thailand and China in 2013. The agency noted that the deal never happened and the rice was
sold locally. It stated that the rice was sold to two China-based companies at prices lower than
the pledging price, who in turn sold it to a Thai private company to resell. The NACC said the
two companies were not acting on behalf of the China government.
The NACC President told local sources that the misdealings have caused losses to the exchequer
to the extent of 600 billion baht (around $18.3 billion) and therefore under Section 73/1 of the
1999 Organic Act on Counter-Corruption, the NACC would advise the Commerce and Finance
Ministries to seek damages from the accused.He also noted that the NACC would forward its
investigation report on the G2G rice deals to the Office of the Attorney-General on February 16,
2015, recommending prosecution of the 21 suspects in the court.
Thailand's National Legislative Assembly (NLA) impeached the former Prime Minister on
January 23, 2015 for encouraging corruption in the controversial rice pledging scheme
introduced by her government in October 2011. She is also facing criminal charges for her role
in the corruption-plagued rice-pledging scheme. If found guilty, she may face a jail term up to
ten years.

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Global Rice Quotes
February 12th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 ↔
Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↑
India 5% broken 395-405 ↔
Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔
Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↑
Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔
U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔
Uruguay 5% broken NQ ↔
Argentina 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 365-375 ↔
Vietnam 25% broken 320-330 ↓
Pakistan 25% broken 305-315 ↔
Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔
India 25% broken 360-370 ↔
U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415 ↔

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Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 920-930 ↔
Vietnam Jasmine 445-455 ↔
India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795 ↔
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔
Vietnam 100% broken 300-310 ↓
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔
Cambodia A1 Super 365-375 ↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
U.S. pet food 380-390 ↔
Brazil half grain NQ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

13th february 2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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13th february 2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine