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Having a diversified approach to
investing gives us the opportunity to
invest in an asset class, a specific
sector, a market or a region that could
provide outsized returns.
Since 2010, U.S. stocks have
outperformed their international peers
by a wide margin, recently reaching all
time highs. There are many reasons for
this outperformance, but the dominance
of U.S technology stocks is the primary
one.
Our portfolios have been under exposed
to international stocks for some time.
While calling a top in a strong trend is
foolish, it is something we are paying
close attention to. Look for us to
increase our exposure to foreign
markets once this trend changes
direction and reverts to a mean that is
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The market capitalization of the
”Magnificent 7” is the same size as the
market capitalization of Japanese,
Canadian and the U.K. stock
markets…combined!!
The market capitalization of these
stocks is also bigger than the GDP of
every country in the world except for
the U.S. and China.
These two data points should lead
investors to question whether what we
are seeing is a new normal or if we just
are in the middle of another stock
bubble.
The answer will only be known in
hindsight but prudence in these names
seems warranted at this point.
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Speaking of the ”Magnificent 7”, last
year was a great year, with their
returns absolutely crushing the rest of
the index and especially the Equal
Weight index.
Just like in physics, where an object in
motion stays in motion, momentum can
be a powerful force for stocks.
The question for most investors into the
new year is whether this strong
outperformance will continue.
We will pay close attention to our
trending signals to help us identify a
rotation away from these names, which
would likely lead us to increase our
exposure to smaller and mid sized
companies.
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Last year, I did a “Walk in the Park”
video highlighting the speed at which
our government was increasing its debt
level.
In it, I also mentioned that the cost of
this debt will likely increase due to the
recent rise in interest rates.
Well, $8.2 Trillion, or nearly 24% of
the current outstanding debt, will have
to be refinanced this year.
This will occur on top of the $2 Trillion
debt deficit that is expected to be
financed in 2024, assuming the economy
continues to grow.
The cost of financing our national debt
is about to increase significantly.
6. Disclosure
Information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is
limited to the dissemination of general information on products and services. This information
should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the
securities mentioned herein.
This presentation should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All
expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the adviser as of the date of the presentation and are
subject to change.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client
should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable
or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that
any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are no
assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
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