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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON COMPANY (SCE)
Plug-in Electric Vehicle Strategy &
Roadmap
Empowering our customers to positively experience PEV-
grid connectivity
FOR OVER 100 YEARS…LIFE. POWERED BY EDISON.
Empowering our customers
to positively experience
PEV-grid connectivity
PLUG-IN
ELECTRIC
VEHICLE
STRATEGY
& ROADMAP
I
Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1
A. Strategic Domains.....................................................................................................................................................2
1. Regulatory and Market Landscape Development .................................................................................................2
2. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration ........................................................................................................................2
3. Customer Empowerment......................................................................................................................................2
4. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency ...............................................................................................................................2
B. Overview of SCE’s PEV Readiness Objectives .........................................................................................................3
C. Strategy Update Process...........................................................................................................................................4
II. Introduction.............................................................................................................................5
A. Why is SCE Preparing for the Arrival of Plug-in Electric Vehicles?............................................................................5
1. Rate and Metering Options are Critical Issues in Providing a Positive PEV Ownership Experience.....................5
2. Potential PEV Load Impacts on the Electric Grid Require Planning and Preparation.............................................6
3. Individual Customer Value and Societal Benefits ..................................................................................................7
4. Customer Segments Impacted by PEVs...............................................................................................................8
B. What is Driving the Market for Plug-in Electric Vehicles? .........................................................................................8
1. Environmental Impacts and the Societal Cost of Dependence on Foreign Oil......................................................8
2. Appeal of New Vehicle Options to an Expanding PEV Market..............................................................................9
3. Technological Innovations......................................................................................................................................9
4. Federal and State Regulatory Policies.................................................................................................................1 0
5. Appeal of Electric Vehicles in California...............................................................................................................1 1
6. Gasoline Prices are More Volatile than Electricity Prices ....................................................................................1 2
C. What is the Forecast for PEV Sales.........................................................................................................................1 4
D. What is SCE’s Historical Involvement with Electric Transportation?.......................................................................1 5
II
III.PEV Readiness Vision, Strategy and Roadmap ...................................................................... 17
A. Regulatory and Market Landscape Development ...................................................................................................1 9
1. What is SCE’s Vision of Regulatory and Market Landscape Development for the Year 2020?...........................1 9
2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Regulatory and Market Landscape Development?.............................................2 0
3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Regulatory and Market Landscape Development? .............................2 2
B. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration ..........................................................................................................................2 4
1. What is SCE’s Vision of PEV Integration for the Year 2020? ...............................................................................2 4
2. What are SCE’s Strategies for PEV Integration? .................................................................................................2 5
3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for PEV Integration?..................................................................................2 7
C. Customer Empowerment........................................................................................................................................2 9
1. What is SCE’s Vision of Customer Empowerment for the Year 2020? ...............................................................2 9
2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Customer Empowerment? .................................................................................2 9
3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Customer Empowerment?..................................................................3 3
D. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency .................................................................................................................................3 6
1. What is SCE’s Vision of Grid Resiliency and Efficiency for the Year 2020?.........................................................3 6
2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Grid Resiliency and Efficiency?...........................................................................3 7
3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Grid Resiliency and Efficiency? ...........................................................3 8
IV.Methodology ..........................................................................................................................4 1
A. What was SCE’s Approach to Developing its PEV Readiness Strategy? ................................................................4 1
1. Customer-focused Planning ................................................................................................................................4 1
2. Industry Collaboration..........................................................................................................................................4 2
3. Rigorous Technology Evaluation..........................................................................................................................4 2
4. Strategic Flexibility ..............................................................................................................................................4 3
Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................4 4
Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................................................4 4
Appendix 2 ............................................................................................................................................................4 5
Appendix 3 ............................................................................................................................................................4 6
Appendix 4 ............................................................................................................................................................4 7
Appendix 5 ............................................................................................................................................................4 7
Appendix 6 ............................................................................................................................................................5 1
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Forecast of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in SCE Territory ......................................................................................3
Figure 2: Three Distinct Types of System Peaks............................................................................................................6
Figure 3: Benefits of PEV Ownership.............................................................................................................................7
Figure 4: PEV Customer Segments................................................................................................................................8
Figure 5: Providers of PEV Charging Products And Services .......................................................................................1 1
Figure 6: Retail Gasoline and Electricity Price Comparison ..........................................................................................1 2
Figure 7: Fuel Cost Comparison ...................................................................................................................................1 3
Figure 8: PEV Sales Forecast for SCE’s Service Territory.............................................................................................1 4
Figure 9: Estimated System and PEV Load by Summer 2020 .....................................................................................1 5
Figure 10: Key Milestones for SCE Involvement in Electric Transportation (partial list) ...............................................1 6
Figure 11: PEV Readiness Domains .............................................................................................................................1 8
Figure 12: PEV Readiness Vision Summary .................................................................................................................1 9
Figure 13: Market and Regulatory Landscape Development Strategies, Tactics and Timeline ....................................2 1
Figure 14: PEV Integration Strategies, Tactics and Timeline.........................................................................................2 7
Figure 15: End-to-End Customer Process ....................................................................................................................3 0
Figure 16: Residential Charging Equipment Installation Process .................................................................................3 0
Figure 17: Customer Empowerment Strategies, Tactics and Timeline.........................................................................3 2
Figure 18: Grid Resiliency and Efficiency Strategies, Tactics and Timeline ..................................................................3 8
1
I. Executive Summary
Over 100 years ago the internal combustion engine revolutionized society’s transportation system. This
new technology played a vital role in encouraging our nation’s economic growth and increasing our standard
of living by allowing people and products to travel greater distances in less time, thus granting access to
distant markets for society’s products and services. Today, growing awareness of the costs imposed on
society by the conventional engine—from dependence on foreign oil, to unstable and rising energy costs
and environmental concerns—is precipitating another transportation revolution. Innovation, government
policies, and consumer interest are now converging to create a market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEV)
with the potential to fundamentally change the way society powers its transportation needs.
Southern California Edison (SCE) has more than twenty years of electric utility industry leadership in electric
transportation research—evaluating the challenges and opportunities electric vehicles may present to the
utility and its customers. SCE intends to leverage this experience by implementing business practices and
technologies designed to remove barriers to PEV adoption. The purpose of these efforts is to enable our
customers to positively experience PEV-grid connectivity while avoiding undue cost burdens associated
with shifting toward electricity as a transportation fuel.
SCE wants to ensure that PEV customers have a positive experience, both in getting their premises “plug-in
ready” and in managing their ongoing PEV charging experience. To prepare for the potential impact of light-
duty PEVs on the local distribution grid and the utility’s customer-facing operations, SCE has established
a comprehensive PEV Readiness Program. SCE’s strategy is measured and flexible, allowing the utility
to anticipate the PEV market while avoiding the risk of creating unnecessary investments. SCE’s PEV
Readiness Program is coordinating the preparation of the utility’s internal organizations impacted by the
arrival of PEVs through a combination of process improvements, appropriate staffing, specific training, and
technology development.
2
A. Strategic Domains
SCE’s approach to preparing for the arrival PEVs is organized around four strategic domains: Regulatory and
Market Landscape Development, Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration, Customer Empowerment, and Grid
Resiliency and Efficiency.
Regulatory and Market Landscape Development1.
A key element of SCE’s strategy is to comply with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)
requirement that utilities not invest in “behind the meter” charging infrastructure. Rather than invest in
PEV charging equipment, SCE facilitates the installation of charging equipment by third parties. SCE does
not advocate for PEV adoption, nor does it provide PEV charging products or installation services. Instead,
SCE is focusing its education and outreach efforts on customer readiness and load management.
2. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration
SCE supports multiple metering options for PEVs, including the eventual integration of sub-meters with
PEV charging equipment. To integrate PEVs with the grid, SCE will enable multiple communications
channels for pricing, load management and data presentment. Eventually, SCE anticipates leveraging
its communications platform by developing PEV demand-side management programs that help balance
the electric system, provided the pilot programs under development demonstrate their value and cost-
effectiveness.
3. Customer Empowerment
Similar to California’s other investor-owned utilities, SCE offers its customers time-of-use rates specifically
designed for PEV charging. At the CPUC’s request, SCE first introduced electric vehicle charging rates
to meet the previous, limited introduction of PEVs in the 1990s. The electric service rate, together with
the time of charging—such as on-peak or off-peak—has a significant impact on customer convenience
and fueling cost. Rate options selected by PEV customers determine their metering requirements and,
in turn, the installation of charging equipment. This sometimes complex process involves several other
external stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers and dealers, installation service providers, and local
city inspectors. To improve the customer experience, SCE is streamlining and automating processes, and
engaging external stakeholders to align processes. SCE’s education and outreach focuses on customer
readiness and load management issues.
4. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency
In the near to medium term, PEVs are expected to have little to no impact on electricity generation and
transmission needs. However, the incremental PEV load requires that SCE assess the local distribution
infrastructure to identify necessary distribution system equipment upgrades. Such upgrades are only
performed in connection with charging locations that have been positively confirmed, preferably before the
charging occurs. This “just-in-time” strategy is critical to avoiding potentially unnecessary infrastructure
investments. PEV charging may also influence the efficiency of the electric system since variable PEV
charging could complement the use of intermittent generation resources such as wind. SCE will therefore
3
evaluate the potential for demand side management—or smart charging—programs for PEVs, and develop
programs deemed appropriate and cost-effective.
B. Overview of SCE’s PEV Readiness Objectives
The PEV forecast for SCE’s service territory, and the key PEV readiness objectives between now and
the year 2020 are summarized below in Figure 1. These objectives follow the natural progression of the
evolving PEV market and increasing levels of customer adoption over time.
Figure 1: Forecast of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in SCE Territory
Market Ignition
regulation and legislation
data notification
Market Acceleration
their PEV technology
Market Maturity
external stakeholders
to address any issues
that arise in the
choices
charging
energy technologies
Regulatory &
PEV
Integration
Grid Resiliency
& Efficiency
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
High
Mid
4
C. Strategy Update Process
Despite the anticipation of the PEV market, SCE is aware of the uncertainties that could propel or impede
this new market. While the utility may offer programs in the future to influence charging behaviors, other
factors such as the availability of public or workplace charging stations, or the unique needs of individual
PEV owners, will play significant roles in shaping customer charging habits. As such, SCE must maintain
strategic flexibility to ensure that its PEV programs and operations are timely and reasonably scalable.
SCE will periodically monitor and evaluate a series of leading indicators to determine whether its existing
strategies continue to be relevant and appropriate over time. Examples of leading indicators include the
PEV adoption rate, the influence of PEV load on rates (upward or downward pressure), PEV charging
behaviors, the utility PEV notification rate, and customer satisfaction. If this evaluation reveals a notable
change compared to today’s PEV environment, a steering committee overseeing the execution of SCE’s
PEV strategy and roadmap will assess the implications and construct appropriate responses.
5
II. Introduction
A. Why is SCE Preparing for the Arrival of Plug-in Electric Vehicles?
The near-term potential for widespread customer adoption of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) has
prompted Southern California Edison (SCE) to develop and implement a company-wide plan to address the
needs of its customers and the potential impacts on the electric grid infrastructure. As SCE’s customers
begin to purchase new PEVs they will experience an immediate need for assistance in choosing among a
variety of electric services and rate options. Moreover, recharging a single PEV could significantly impact
a residence’s electrical demand, while large numbers of PEVs concentrated in one geographic area could
materially change distribution line and substation circuit loads. As the serving electric utility, SCE will play a
key role in assisting its customers to achieve the value they expect from their PEV while also maintaining
the efficient and reliable operation of the electric grid.
1. Rate and Metering Options are Critical Issues in Providing a Positive PEV Ownership
Experience
Customers are expected to require additional assistance getting their premises “plug-in ready”, and
understanding their choices for “home-based” charging, including available PEV rate and metering options.
Customer choices regarding rates and time of charging (i.e., on-peak or off-peak) directly impact their PEV
fueling costs. When customers do not understand these choices, they are more likely to make sub-optimal
decisions that could increase their vehicle fueling costs. These customer choices may also impact the
efficiency of the electric system since off-peak charging improves the system load factor and is coincident
with the production of wind energy resources. In addition, the large number of stakeholders involved in the
installation of residential charging equipment may create customer confusion during the early market. As
such, one of SCE’s primary near-term objectives is to effectively interface with these stakeholders and help
6
provide a positive experience for PEV residential and non-residential customers getting “plug-in ready”.
SCE’s approach to helping customers to positively experience PEV ownership is addressed in Chapter
III.C.—Customer Empowerment.
2. Potential PEV Load Impacts on the Electric Grid Require Planning and Preparation
SCE’s other near-term objective is to ensure that the electric system is prepared to serve the new PEV load
which, in some cases, may result in doubling the total household peak electricity demand. PEVs are also
likely to be concentrated in geographic clusters, potentially impacting distribution line and substation circuit
loads. While SCE expects PEVs to be adopted throughout its service territory, it anticipates that pockets of
the Southern California coastline, from South Orange County north through Santa Barbara, will have above-
average adoption rates. Certain inland communities, such as the surrounding areas of Thousand Oaks and
the San Gabriel valley and foothills, may also see high adoption levels. Thus, depending on the types of
PEVs purchased, the speed at which these vehicles are charged1
, and their charging location, there may be
a need to reinforce the distribution system in neighborhoods that have large numbers of PEV customers, or
in neighborhoods with a few PEV customers with faster, higher voltage charging systems. SCE’s approach
to ensuring that the grid is prepared to support PEV load is addressed in Chapter III. D.—Grid Resiliency
and Efficiency.
Figure 2: Three Distinct Types of System Peaks
Distribution circuit peaks
represent the peaks that
periodically occur on a
distribution circuit based on
localized customer usage
behavior. These peaks are highly
variable and, in addition to being
a concern during peak hours, can
also occur during off-peak hours,
weekends, or the winter months.
These peaks are generally
caused by local distribution
infrastructure capacity
constraints and the electricity
consumption behaviors of the
associated customers. SCE will
attempt to minimize the potential
for PEVs to aggravate these
peaks through PEV load
management programs.
Daily generation peaks
represent the peak electricity
consumption period that occurs
on a daily basis from the late
afternoon to early evening.
Although there are seasonal
differences in when the daily
generation peaks actually
occur, it is generally between
3pm and 6pm. SCE seeks to
minimize the potential for
PEVs to exacerbate the daily
generation peaks by offering
time-differentiated PEV rates that
encourage off-peak charging.
Critical generation peaks
represent the periodic but less
frequent peak load events that
typically occur during hot
summer afternoons when a
large number of customers
operate air conditioners. Similar
to “daily generation peaks”,
time-differentiated PEV rates
are also expected to minimize
the potential for PEVs to
intensify critical generation
peaks. PEV load management
programs are also expected to
help mitigate these peaks.
1
Customers may choose between two different levels—or voltages—to charge their PEVs. Higher voltage levels will charge the car faster, but may
require additional equipment. Level I charging can take from six to eighteen hours for a full battery charge, using the familiar three-prong 120-volt outlets
found in every home and business. For more rapid charging, customers can install an electric car charging station for Level II charging. These stations—
also referred to as electric vehicle supply equipment—require a 240-volt line, and can fill most PEVs in an average of three to six hours.
7
Over the longer term, SCE plans to emphasize greater integration of PEVs with the electrical system,
using “smart charging” to manage PEV load and potentially integrate advanced grid resources such
as bulk renewable generation with PEV charging. As PEV owners shift their focus from gasoline costs
toward managing electricity fuel costs, PEVs will likely become a catalyst for broader improvements in
how customers use energy at home. Therefore, SCE’s future customer education and outreach efforts
may leverage customer attention to PEV energy use to promote improvements in overall home energy
management.
3. Individual Customer Value and Societal Benefits
In developing SCE’s PEV readiness strategy and roadmap, a key objective has been to identify processes
and technologies that will provide significant customer value. Although SCE believes in taking a cost-
effective approach to the development of PEV readiness processes and technologies, traditional cost/
benefit models may not account for all of the value to be derived from PEV readiness expenditures and
investments. A substantial portion of these benefits are societal in nature and include achieving national
and state priorities such as energy independence, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution,
and increasing grid reliability. These benefits are often difficult to quantify and may accrue not only to SCE
customers who own PEVs, but to all SCE customers, California residents, and to society in general.
SCE has identified eight PEV readiness benefit categories. These benefits are separated between customer
benefits and societal benefits.
Figure 3: Benefits of PEV Ownership
Customer Benefits Societal Benefits
1. Improve the Customer Experience by streamlining
and automating the charging station installation
process, enhancing customer education and
outreach, and by empowering customers to
manage their energy usage and costs
2. Improve Grid Resiliency and Reliability by using
PEVs as a resource to balance the energy system
and to help integrate other advanced grid resources
such as off-peak or intermittent energy
3. Avoid Increasing Peak Demand by implementing
PEV rates, and demand management programs
and services
4. Increase Energy Conservation and Efficiency by
leveraging the attention PEV owners have toward
vehicle-related electricity use to improve their
focus on overall home energy management
and the resultant energy cost savings
5. Improve System Load Factors by increasing
levels of off-peak charging
1. Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air
Pollution by reducing barriers to customer
adoption of PEVs
2. Support Energy Independence by facilitating
the market for PEV products and services
which use domestically-produced electric fuel
3. Support Economic Growth and Productivity by
fostering the development of California’s clean
technology economy, and associated job growth
8
4. Customer Segments Impacted by PEVs
While this report largely focuses on the PEV readiness efforts for residential customers, SCE has identified
a total of five PEV customer segments, each of which presents unique PEV readiness issues. This report
will attempt to highlight and address these issues.
Figure 4: PEV Customer Segments
Single Family Residence
A single family home
with either attached or
detached garage/parking.
Multi-family Dwelling
Apartment or
condominium with
assigned parking space
or common area parking.
HOA or property
management has
account with utility. Fleet
Fleet vehicles owned by
businesses, municipalities,
government, etc.
Charging Location
Home Work Public
Account
Type
Residential
Commercial
Multi-family Dwelling
Apartment or
condominium with
assigned parking space.
Customer has account
directly with utility.
Workplace/Employee
Charging available
to employees in a
workplace setting.
Public Access
Charging available to the
public (e.g., charging
station, shopping mall,
convention center, etc.)
B. What is Driving the Market for Plug-in Electric Vehicles?
1. Environmental Impacts and the Societal Cost of Dependence on Foreign Oil
The internal combustion engine has successfully powered society’s transportation needs for over 100
years. Fuelled by an abundant and inexpensive supply of petroleum, and supported by an expansive
national highway system, the internal combustion engine revolutionized transportation by allowing people
9
to travel longer distances in less time while also granting access to distant markets for society’s products
and services. This transportation system has played a crucial role in enabling our nation’s economic growth
and contributing to higher living standards. Yet, despite the many benefits this system has provided, there
is growing awareness of the costs it imposes on society. Dependence on foreign oil, unstable and rising
energy costs, and environmental impacts have raised concerns among policy makers, automakers, and
citizens alike. Recent efforts to commercialize PEVs are a response, in part, to these concerns.
2. Appeal of New Vehicle Options to an Expanding PEV Market
Plug-in electric vehicles consist of battery electric vehicles (BEV) which run solely on electricity, and plug-
in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) which are also powered by an electric motor, but can extend their range
using an on-board internal combustion engine. The Nissan Leaf, a BEV, can drive approximately 70 electric
miles or more before requiring a recharge. The Chevrolet Volt, a PHEV, is capable of driving approximately
40 miles in all-electric mode and can extend its range by over 300 miles using its internal combustion
engine. The two vehicle types are likely to appeal to potential customers based on a number of factors,
including intended vehicle use.
3. Technological Innovations
Although a number of factors contribute to the current PEV market tailwinds, the production and widespread
adoption of these vehicles would not occur in the absence of recent technological innovations. Indeed,
technology has created the potential for a second transportation revolution. Improvements in battery
technologies and on-vehicle chargers and development of the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle drivetrain
are among the critical technology milestones that have provided momentum to the current pace of PEV
innovation and market development.2
These advances have improved vehicle range, reduced vehicle
component costs and introduced greater flexibility to customer charging options, all of which have made
PEVs more attractive to potential buyers. PHEVs, in particular, have the potential to encourage wider
acceptance of PEVs since these vehicles resolve range anxiety, which is often cited as the principal obstacle
to customer acceptance. If additional driving range is needed, PHEVs have an internal combustion engine
that can extend their range by several hundred miles.
As a result of these innovations, over the past few years every major automaker and a number of startups
have announced plans to introduce mass market PEVs. The first mass produced PEVs arrived at showrooms
in late 2010, while a number of other models are due to launch within a few years. These are expected
to range from two seat roadsters and four-door cars to small vans and sport utility vehicles. Appendix 4
summarizes the nineteen PEV models announced for production by the year 2012.
Similar to recent advances in the automotive industry, the electric utility industry is undergoing a
transformation in how it produces and delivers electricity. SCE is an industry leader in the evaluation and
2 There have also been substantial innovations in the development of other alternative fuel vehicles such as natural gas vehicles and hybrid fuel cell
vehicles (in addition to improvements in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles). All alternative fuel vehicles face the two principal challenges
of high vehicle acquisition costs and potentially inadequate fueling infrastructure. While PEV pricing includes a premium over conventional vehicles, the
fueling infrastructure poses less of a challenge than it does for other alternative fuel vehicles since every customer premises has a power outlet that can
potentially be used to charge a PEV.
10
deployment of numerous energy and communications infrastructure technologies. PEV owners will benefit
from utility investments in smart grid technology, which will enhance the integration of vehicle charging
with electrical system needs while also providing improved situational awareness to empower customer
energy management.
4. Federal and State Regulatory Policies
While technological innovation has turned PEVs into a potential mass market product, federal and state
policies have provided much of the impetus for their early-market development. Federal income tax
credits for the purchase of PEVs and related charging equipment provide incentives for early-market PEV
adoption. Federal policies also target the automotive industry through tighter fuel efficiency standards and
financial support for developing advanced technology vehicles and related components. The American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) authorized grants of over $2 billion for U.S.-based
manufacturers of advanced batteries and electric vehicle components. In addition to providing stimulus
during the economic downturn, a parallel objective of the ARRA funding was to support the emergence
of a domestic PEV manufacturing base. Appendix 2 summarizes the key federal policies supporting PEV
market development.
California policies have also played an important role in jump-starting the PEV market. Through its Zero-
Emission Vehicle Program (ZEV mandate) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), the California Air Resources
Board (CARB) increasingly influences the types of vehicles and fuels sold in California. The ZEV mandate
requires that a share of each manufacturer’s new vehicle sales consist of vehicles with near-zero and zero
tailpipe emissions.3
Zero emission and near-zero emission vehicles include battery electric vehicles, plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. CARB is in the process of updating the required number and
type of zero-emissions vehicles through the year 2020.
Whereas the ZEV mandate regulates the types of vehicles sold in California, the LCFS governs the types
of fuels sold in California. The LCFS requires oil refineries and distributors to reduce the carbon intensity of
California’s transportation fuels by ten percent by the year 2020 through declining greenhouse gas emission
targets. Fueling a PEV with electricity will also generate LCFS credits.4
These credits could potentially
provide incentives for the PEV market on a long term basis.
In 2009 the California legislature passed Assembly Bill 626 in an effort to address the potential impacts
of electric vehicles on California’s electric infrastructure. This bill ordered the California Public Utilities
Commission (CPUC) to evaluate and implement policies to develop electrical system infrastructure
sufficient to remove any potential barriers to PEV adoption. In response, the CPUC launched the Alternative
Fueled Vehicle Order Instituting Rulemaking proceeding (AFV OIR).5
The CPUC’s Phase One decision in
3 Beginning in 1998, the Zero Emission Vehicle program required that two percent of each major automaker’s in-state vehicle sales consist of zero-
emissions vehicles (ZEV). The required ZEV sales share was originally set to increase to ten percent by 2003, but the ZEV mandate subsequently
underwent multiple revisions that relaxed these requirements in the early 2000s. A handful of automakers initially produced limited numbers of BEVs for
the California market to comply with these requirements. But when the ZEV requirements were amended, BEV production and sales growth slowed.
4 The California Air Resources Board is currently evaluating the treatment of LCFS credits, including how they are earned and by which party.
5 Appendix 3 summarizes the key California policies supporting PEV market development.
11
this proceeding acknowledged that PEV charging station operators—also referred to as Electric Vehicle
Service Providers or EVSPs—are neither utilities nor Energy Service Providers (ESP) and will therefore not
be regulated by the CPUC as utilities unless they procure electricity from the wholesale market (i.e., not
from a regulated investor-owned utility). If an EVSP purchases energy on the wholesale market for sale to
its customers, the EVSP would be subject to procurement requirements enforced by the CPUC.6
Figure 5
summarizes the types of PEV charging products and services providers.
Figure 5: Providers of PEV Charging Products and Services
Manufacturer
Manufacture PEV
charging station
equipment.
Installer
Install charging stations.
Includes both local and
national providers.
Owner
Own or lease the
charging station. The
owner may or may not
also be the operator.
Operator (EVSP)
Operate charging
stations (provide
electricity fuel in a
bundled service).
Includes host sites or
3rd parties.
Terminology: A number of terms are often used within the industry to describe the various 3rd party providers of
products and services for PEV charging. The figure above lists the categories of these product and service providers,
and provides a definition for each term. The term “EVSP” is sometimes incorrectly used to refer to some or all of
these 3rd parties, when it should only be used to refer to the charge station operator.
5. Appeal of Electric Vehicles in California
While innovation and regulation converge to support PEV adoption, consumers are also turning to more
efficient alternative transportation due to a combination of environmental and geopolitical considerations,
government incentives (financial and non-financial), and fuel cost concerns. As gasoline prices have risen
over the past decade, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have gained market share in the Los Angeles area
(see Figure 6).7
In fact, people living in California were 220 percent more likely to purchase a hybrid than in
the United States population on average.8
The strength of hybrid vehicle sales is a key reason why major
automotive manufacturers have selected California as one of the first PEV launch markets.9
However, it
should be noted that despite their success, HEVs currently account for only two percent of new vehicle
sales in the U.S.10
6 Such procurement requirements include the Renewables Portfolio Standard, Resource Adequacy, and the Emissions Performance Standard. AFV
OIR Phase One Decision, page 25.
7 Hybrid electric vehicles use both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor to power themselves. Unlike a PEV, an HEV does not plug-
in to the power grid source to recharge its battery. Rather, HEVs obtain their energy either from the internal combustion engine, or by converting the
vehicle’s kinetic energy into electricity through a process known as regenerative braking, a process also used by PEVs. See Appendix 1 for graphical
representation of this vehicle type.
8 This percentage was calculated by SCE by dividing California’s share of U.S. hybrid sales by California’s share of total U.S. auto sales for years 2006
through 2008. The 220 percent represents the average of these three years.
9 Los Angeles is among the initial market launch areas for the first PEV models to be introduced by General Motors, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Ford,
BMW, and Coda.
10 This percentage was calculated based on 2011 year to date vehicle sales data on the hybridcars.com August 2011 dashboard.
12
6. Gasoline Prices are More Volatile than Electricity Prices
Figure 6 displays the volatility of gasoline and electricity prices over the past several decades.11
Whereas
electricity prices have remained steady, gasoline prices have been subject to sudden and pronounced
swings. Although geopolitical instability and economic crises have traditionally been the primary causes of
gasoline price movements, increased demand from high-growth emerging markets combined with limited
supply will likely continue to drive price increases.
FIGURE 5 - RETAIL GASOLINE AND ELECTRICITY PRICE COMPARISONFigure 6: Retail Gasoline and Electricity Price Comparison
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
$/Gallon
Equivalent
Cumulative
Hybrid Sales
Gasoline Price
Electricity Price
Hybrid Sales
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2011
To illustrate the potential fuel cost savings from replacing an internal combustion engine vehicle with a
PEV, Figure 7 compares the cost to fuel each type of vehicle.12
It is important to note that the fuel cost
advantages of PEVs are higher for customers who select appropriate time-of-use (TOU) rates and charge
11 The electricity price per gallon equivalent was converted from dollars per kWh to dollars per gallon assuming a PEV achieves 3.4 miles per kWh, and
that an internal combustion engine vehicle achieves 30 miles per gallon.
12 This figure presents the energy cost per mile for two PEV models (a compact vehicle and a truck), two comparable gasoline vehicles, and a hybrid
electric vehicle (HEV). This example uses the current approximate gasoline price of $4/gallon, and the current EV-1 off-peak rate of $0.11/kWh. The
vehicle with the lowest energy cost per mile is the PEV compact, at about $0.03 per mile, which is about 20 percent of the cost of fueling a gasoline
compact vehicle. There is a similar cost advantage to fueling a PEV truck over an equivalent gasoline-powered truck. The fuel efficiencies of the PEV
compact vehicle and PEV truck are assumed to be 3.5 and 2 miles per kWh, while the equivalent gasoline vehicles are assumed to achieve 27 and 16
miles per gallon. The HEV fuel efficiency is assumed to be 50 miles per gallon.
13
during off-peak hours, or for tiered-rate customers with low overall household usage. Customers who
charge their vehicles using their existing tiered rates—or those who enroll in a TOU rate and subsequently
charge during on-peak hours—may pay electricity costs comparable to the cost to fuel a gasoline vehicle.
In addition, customers who want to charge their vehicles more quickly using Level II charging are currently
required to install Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE). In some cases the cost of purchasing and
installing this equipment can amount to several thousand dollars.
FIGURE 6 - FUEL COST COMPARISON
Figure 7: Fuel Cost Comparison
Energy Cost per Mile
Compact
PEV
(Electric)
Truck
PEV
(Electric)
Hybrid
(Gas)
Compact
(Gas)
Truck
(Gas)
$- $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40
Current EV Rate ($0.11)
Current EV Rate ($0.11)
Current Gas Price ($4)
Current Gas Price ($4)
-50%
-50%
-50%
-50% +50%
+50%
+50%
+50%
Current Gas Price ($4)
-50% +50%

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PEVR Strategy and Roadmap_Complete

  • 1. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON COMPANY (SCE) Plug-in Electric Vehicle Strategy & Roadmap Empowering our customers to positively experience PEV- grid connectivity FOR OVER 100 YEARS…LIFE. POWERED BY EDISON. Empowering our customers to positively experience PEV-grid connectivity PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE STRATEGY & ROADMAP
  • 2.
  • 3. I Table of Contents I. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................1 A. Strategic Domains.....................................................................................................................................................2 1. Regulatory and Market Landscape Development .................................................................................................2 2. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration ........................................................................................................................2 3. Customer Empowerment......................................................................................................................................2 4. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency ...............................................................................................................................2 B. Overview of SCE’s PEV Readiness Objectives .........................................................................................................3 C. Strategy Update Process...........................................................................................................................................4 II. Introduction.............................................................................................................................5 A. Why is SCE Preparing for the Arrival of Plug-in Electric Vehicles?............................................................................5 1. Rate and Metering Options are Critical Issues in Providing a Positive PEV Ownership Experience.....................5 2. Potential PEV Load Impacts on the Electric Grid Require Planning and Preparation.............................................6 3. Individual Customer Value and Societal Benefits ..................................................................................................7 4. Customer Segments Impacted by PEVs...............................................................................................................8 B. What is Driving the Market for Plug-in Electric Vehicles? .........................................................................................8 1. Environmental Impacts and the Societal Cost of Dependence on Foreign Oil......................................................8 2. Appeal of New Vehicle Options to an Expanding PEV Market..............................................................................9 3. Technological Innovations......................................................................................................................................9 4. Federal and State Regulatory Policies.................................................................................................................1 0 5. Appeal of Electric Vehicles in California...............................................................................................................1 1 6. Gasoline Prices are More Volatile than Electricity Prices ....................................................................................1 2 C. What is the Forecast for PEV Sales.........................................................................................................................1 4 D. What is SCE’s Historical Involvement with Electric Transportation?.......................................................................1 5
  • 4. II III.PEV Readiness Vision, Strategy and Roadmap ...................................................................... 17 A. Regulatory and Market Landscape Development ...................................................................................................1 9 1. What is SCE’s Vision of Regulatory and Market Landscape Development for the Year 2020?...........................1 9 2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Regulatory and Market Landscape Development?.............................................2 0 3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Regulatory and Market Landscape Development? .............................2 2 B. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration ..........................................................................................................................2 4 1. What is SCE’s Vision of PEV Integration for the Year 2020? ...............................................................................2 4 2. What are SCE’s Strategies for PEV Integration? .................................................................................................2 5 3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for PEV Integration?..................................................................................2 7 C. Customer Empowerment........................................................................................................................................2 9 1. What is SCE’s Vision of Customer Empowerment for the Year 2020? ...............................................................2 9 2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Customer Empowerment? .................................................................................2 9 3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Customer Empowerment?..................................................................3 3 D. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency .................................................................................................................................3 6 1. What is SCE’s Vision of Grid Resiliency and Efficiency for the Year 2020?.........................................................3 6 2. What are SCE’s Strategies for Grid Resiliency and Efficiency?...........................................................................3 7 3. How will SCE Execute its Strategies for Grid Resiliency and Efficiency? ...........................................................3 8 IV.Methodology ..........................................................................................................................4 1 A. What was SCE’s Approach to Developing its PEV Readiness Strategy? ................................................................4 1 1. Customer-focused Planning ................................................................................................................................4 1 2. Industry Collaboration..........................................................................................................................................4 2 3. Rigorous Technology Evaluation..........................................................................................................................4 2 4. Strategic Flexibility ..............................................................................................................................................4 3 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................4 4 Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................................................4 4 Appendix 2 ............................................................................................................................................................4 5 Appendix 3 ............................................................................................................................................................4 6 Appendix 4 ............................................................................................................................................................4 7 Appendix 5 ............................................................................................................................................................4 7 Appendix 6 ............................................................................................................................................................5 1 Table of Figures Figure 1: Forecast of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in SCE Territory ......................................................................................3 Figure 2: Three Distinct Types of System Peaks............................................................................................................6 Figure 3: Benefits of PEV Ownership.............................................................................................................................7 Figure 4: PEV Customer Segments................................................................................................................................8 Figure 5: Providers of PEV Charging Products And Services .......................................................................................1 1 Figure 6: Retail Gasoline and Electricity Price Comparison ..........................................................................................1 2 Figure 7: Fuel Cost Comparison ...................................................................................................................................1 3 Figure 8: PEV Sales Forecast for SCE’s Service Territory.............................................................................................1 4 Figure 9: Estimated System and PEV Load by Summer 2020 .....................................................................................1 5 Figure 10: Key Milestones for SCE Involvement in Electric Transportation (partial list) ...............................................1 6 Figure 11: PEV Readiness Domains .............................................................................................................................1 8 Figure 12: PEV Readiness Vision Summary .................................................................................................................1 9 Figure 13: Market and Regulatory Landscape Development Strategies, Tactics and Timeline ....................................2 1 Figure 14: PEV Integration Strategies, Tactics and Timeline.........................................................................................2 7 Figure 15: End-to-End Customer Process ....................................................................................................................3 0 Figure 16: Residential Charging Equipment Installation Process .................................................................................3 0 Figure 17: Customer Empowerment Strategies, Tactics and Timeline.........................................................................3 2 Figure 18: Grid Resiliency and Efficiency Strategies, Tactics and Timeline ..................................................................3 8
  • 5. 1 I. Executive Summary Over 100 years ago the internal combustion engine revolutionized society’s transportation system. This new technology played a vital role in encouraging our nation’s economic growth and increasing our standard of living by allowing people and products to travel greater distances in less time, thus granting access to distant markets for society’s products and services. Today, growing awareness of the costs imposed on society by the conventional engine—from dependence on foreign oil, to unstable and rising energy costs and environmental concerns—is precipitating another transportation revolution. Innovation, government policies, and consumer interest are now converging to create a market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) with the potential to fundamentally change the way society powers its transportation needs. Southern California Edison (SCE) has more than twenty years of electric utility industry leadership in electric transportation research—evaluating the challenges and opportunities electric vehicles may present to the utility and its customers. SCE intends to leverage this experience by implementing business practices and technologies designed to remove barriers to PEV adoption. The purpose of these efforts is to enable our customers to positively experience PEV-grid connectivity while avoiding undue cost burdens associated with shifting toward electricity as a transportation fuel. SCE wants to ensure that PEV customers have a positive experience, both in getting their premises “plug-in ready” and in managing their ongoing PEV charging experience. To prepare for the potential impact of light- duty PEVs on the local distribution grid and the utility’s customer-facing operations, SCE has established a comprehensive PEV Readiness Program. SCE’s strategy is measured and flexible, allowing the utility to anticipate the PEV market while avoiding the risk of creating unnecessary investments. SCE’s PEV Readiness Program is coordinating the preparation of the utility’s internal organizations impacted by the arrival of PEVs through a combination of process improvements, appropriate staffing, specific training, and technology development.
  • 6. 2 A. Strategic Domains SCE’s approach to preparing for the arrival PEVs is organized around four strategic domains: Regulatory and Market Landscape Development, Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration, Customer Empowerment, and Grid Resiliency and Efficiency. Regulatory and Market Landscape Development1. A key element of SCE’s strategy is to comply with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) requirement that utilities not invest in “behind the meter” charging infrastructure. Rather than invest in PEV charging equipment, SCE facilitates the installation of charging equipment by third parties. SCE does not advocate for PEV adoption, nor does it provide PEV charging products or installation services. Instead, SCE is focusing its education and outreach efforts on customer readiness and load management. 2. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Integration SCE supports multiple metering options for PEVs, including the eventual integration of sub-meters with PEV charging equipment. To integrate PEVs with the grid, SCE will enable multiple communications channels for pricing, load management and data presentment. Eventually, SCE anticipates leveraging its communications platform by developing PEV demand-side management programs that help balance the electric system, provided the pilot programs under development demonstrate their value and cost- effectiveness. 3. Customer Empowerment Similar to California’s other investor-owned utilities, SCE offers its customers time-of-use rates specifically designed for PEV charging. At the CPUC’s request, SCE first introduced electric vehicle charging rates to meet the previous, limited introduction of PEVs in the 1990s. The electric service rate, together with the time of charging—such as on-peak or off-peak—has a significant impact on customer convenience and fueling cost. Rate options selected by PEV customers determine their metering requirements and, in turn, the installation of charging equipment. This sometimes complex process involves several other external stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers and dealers, installation service providers, and local city inspectors. To improve the customer experience, SCE is streamlining and automating processes, and engaging external stakeholders to align processes. SCE’s education and outreach focuses on customer readiness and load management issues. 4. Grid Resiliency and Efficiency In the near to medium term, PEVs are expected to have little to no impact on electricity generation and transmission needs. However, the incremental PEV load requires that SCE assess the local distribution infrastructure to identify necessary distribution system equipment upgrades. Such upgrades are only performed in connection with charging locations that have been positively confirmed, preferably before the charging occurs. This “just-in-time” strategy is critical to avoiding potentially unnecessary infrastructure investments. PEV charging may also influence the efficiency of the electric system since variable PEV charging could complement the use of intermittent generation resources such as wind. SCE will therefore
  • 7. 3 evaluate the potential for demand side management—or smart charging—programs for PEVs, and develop programs deemed appropriate and cost-effective. B. Overview of SCE’s PEV Readiness Objectives The PEV forecast for SCE’s service territory, and the key PEV readiness objectives between now and the year 2020 are summarized below in Figure 1. These objectives follow the natural progression of the evolving PEV market and increasing levels of customer adoption over time. Figure 1: Forecast of Plug-in Electric Vehicles in SCE Territory Market Ignition regulation and legislation data notification Market Acceleration their PEV technology Market Maturity external stakeholders to address any issues that arise in the choices charging energy technologies Regulatory & PEV Integration Grid Resiliency & Efficiency 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 High Mid
  • 8. 4 C. Strategy Update Process Despite the anticipation of the PEV market, SCE is aware of the uncertainties that could propel or impede this new market. While the utility may offer programs in the future to influence charging behaviors, other factors such as the availability of public or workplace charging stations, or the unique needs of individual PEV owners, will play significant roles in shaping customer charging habits. As such, SCE must maintain strategic flexibility to ensure that its PEV programs and operations are timely and reasonably scalable. SCE will periodically monitor and evaluate a series of leading indicators to determine whether its existing strategies continue to be relevant and appropriate over time. Examples of leading indicators include the PEV adoption rate, the influence of PEV load on rates (upward or downward pressure), PEV charging behaviors, the utility PEV notification rate, and customer satisfaction. If this evaluation reveals a notable change compared to today’s PEV environment, a steering committee overseeing the execution of SCE’s PEV strategy and roadmap will assess the implications and construct appropriate responses.
  • 9. 5 II. Introduction A. Why is SCE Preparing for the Arrival of Plug-in Electric Vehicles? The near-term potential for widespread customer adoption of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) has prompted Southern California Edison (SCE) to develop and implement a company-wide plan to address the needs of its customers and the potential impacts on the electric grid infrastructure. As SCE’s customers begin to purchase new PEVs they will experience an immediate need for assistance in choosing among a variety of electric services and rate options. Moreover, recharging a single PEV could significantly impact a residence’s electrical demand, while large numbers of PEVs concentrated in one geographic area could materially change distribution line and substation circuit loads. As the serving electric utility, SCE will play a key role in assisting its customers to achieve the value they expect from their PEV while also maintaining the efficient and reliable operation of the electric grid. 1. Rate and Metering Options are Critical Issues in Providing a Positive PEV Ownership Experience Customers are expected to require additional assistance getting their premises “plug-in ready”, and understanding their choices for “home-based” charging, including available PEV rate and metering options. Customer choices regarding rates and time of charging (i.e., on-peak or off-peak) directly impact their PEV fueling costs. When customers do not understand these choices, they are more likely to make sub-optimal decisions that could increase their vehicle fueling costs. These customer choices may also impact the efficiency of the electric system since off-peak charging improves the system load factor and is coincident with the production of wind energy resources. In addition, the large number of stakeholders involved in the installation of residential charging equipment may create customer confusion during the early market. As such, one of SCE’s primary near-term objectives is to effectively interface with these stakeholders and help
  • 10. 6 provide a positive experience for PEV residential and non-residential customers getting “plug-in ready”. SCE’s approach to helping customers to positively experience PEV ownership is addressed in Chapter III.C.—Customer Empowerment. 2. Potential PEV Load Impacts on the Electric Grid Require Planning and Preparation SCE’s other near-term objective is to ensure that the electric system is prepared to serve the new PEV load which, in some cases, may result in doubling the total household peak electricity demand. PEVs are also likely to be concentrated in geographic clusters, potentially impacting distribution line and substation circuit loads. While SCE expects PEVs to be adopted throughout its service territory, it anticipates that pockets of the Southern California coastline, from South Orange County north through Santa Barbara, will have above- average adoption rates. Certain inland communities, such as the surrounding areas of Thousand Oaks and the San Gabriel valley and foothills, may also see high adoption levels. Thus, depending on the types of PEVs purchased, the speed at which these vehicles are charged1 , and their charging location, there may be a need to reinforce the distribution system in neighborhoods that have large numbers of PEV customers, or in neighborhoods with a few PEV customers with faster, higher voltage charging systems. SCE’s approach to ensuring that the grid is prepared to support PEV load is addressed in Chapter III. D.—Grid Resiliency and Efficiency. Figure 2: Three Distinct Types of System Peaks Distribution circuit peaks represent the peaks that periodically occur on a distribution circuit based on localized customer usage behavior. These peaks are highly variable and, in addition to being a concern during peak hours, can also occur during off-peak hours, weekends, or the winter months. These peaks are generally caused by local distribution infrastructure capacity constraints and the electricity consumption behaviors of the associated customers. SCE will attempt to minimize the potential for PEVs to aggravate these peaks through PEV load management programs. Daily generation peaks represent the peak electricity consumption period that occurs on a daily basis from the late afternoon to early evening. Although there are seasonal differences in when the daily generation peaks actually occur, it is generally between 3pm and 6pm. SCE seeks to minimize the potential for PEVs to exacerbate the daily generation peaks by offering time-differentiated PEV rates that encourage off-peak charging. Critical generation peaks represent the periodic but less frequent peak load events that typically occur during hot summer afternoons when a large number of customers operate air conditioners. Similar to “daily generation peaks”, time-differentiated PEV rates are also expected to minimize the potential for PEVs to intensify critical generation peaks. PEV load management programs are also expected to help mitigate these peaks. 1 Customers may choose between two different levels—or voltages—to charge their PEVs. Higher voltage levels will charge the car faster, but may require additional equipment. Level I charging can take from six to eighteen hours for a full battery charge, using the familiar three-prong 120-volt outlets found in every home and business. For more rapid charging, customers can install an electric car charging station for Level II charging. These stations— also referred to as electric vehicle supply equipment—require a 240-volt line, and can fill most PEVs in an average of three to six hours.
  • 11. 7 Over the longer term, SCE plans to emphasize greater integration of PEVs with the electrical system, using “smart charging” to manage PEV load and potentially integrate advanced grid resources such as bulk renewable generation with PEV charging. As PEV owners shift their focus from gasoline costs toward managing electricity fuel costs, PEVs will likely become a catalyst for broader improvements in how customers use energy at home. Therefore, SCE’s future customer education and outreach efforts may leverage customer attention to PEV energy use to promote improvements in overall home energy management. 3. Individual Customer Value and Societal Benefits In developing SCE’s PEV readiness strategy and roadmap, a key objective has been to identify processes and technologies that will provide significant customer value. Although SCE believes in taking a cost- effective approach to the development of PEV readiness processes and technologies, traditional cost/ benefit models may not account for all of the value to be derived from PEV readiness expenditures and investments. A substantial portion of these benefits are societal in nature and include achieving national and state priorities such as energy independence, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, and increasing grid reliability. These benefits are often difficult to quantify and may accrue not only to SCE customers who own PEVs, but to all SCE customers, California residents, and to society in general. SCE has identified eight PEV readiness benefit categories. These benefits are separated between customer benefits and societal benefits. Figure 3: Benefits of PEV Ownership Customer Benefits Societal Benefits 1. Improve the Customer Experience by streamlining and automating the charging station installation process, enhancing customer education and outreach, and by empowering customers to manage their energy usage and costs 2. Improve Grid Resiliency and Reliability by using PEVs as a resource to balance the energy system and to help integrate other advanced grid resources such as off-peak or intermittent energy 3. Avoid Increasing Peak Demand by implementing PEV rates, and demand management programs and services 4. Increase Energy Conservation and Efficiency by leveraging the attention PEV owners have toward vehicle-related electricity use to improve their focus on overall home energy management and the resultant energy cost savings 5. Improve System Load Factors by increasing levels of off-peak charging 1. Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air Pollution by reducing barriers to customer adoption of PEVs 2. Support Energy Independence by facilitating the market for PEV products and services which use domestically-produced electric fuel 3. Support Economic Growth and Productivity by fostering the development of California’s clean technology economy, and associated job growth
  • 12. 8 4. Customer Segments Impacted by PEVs While this report largely focuses on the PEV readiness efforts for residential customers, SCE has identified a total of five PEV customer segments, each of which presents unique PEV readiness issues. This report will attempt to highlight and address these issues. Figure 4: PEV Customer Segments Single Family Residence A single family home with either attached or detached garage/parking. Multi-family Dwelling Apartment or condominium with assigned parking space or common area parking. HOA or property management has account with utility. Fleet Fleet vehicles owned by businesses, municipalities, government, etc. Charging Location Home Work Public Account Type Residential Commercial Multi-family Dwelling Apartment or condominium with assigned parking space. Customer has account directly with utility. Workplace/Employee Charging available to employees in a workplace setting. Public Access Charging available to the public (e.g., charging station, shopping mall, convention center, etc.) B. What is Driving the Market for Plug-in Electric Vehicles? 1. Environmental Impacts and the Societal Cost of Dependence on Foreign Oil The internal combustion engine has successfully powered society’s transportation needs for over 100 years. Fuelled by an abundant and inexpensive supply of petroleum, and supported by an expansive national highway system, the internal combustion engine revolutionized transportation by allowing people
  • 13. 9 to travel longer distances in less time while also granting access to distant markets for society’s products and services. This transportation system has played a crucial role in enabling our nation’s economic growth and contributing to higher living standards. Yet, despite the many benefits this system has provided, there is growing awareness of the costs it imposes on society. Dependence on foreign oil, unstable and rising energy costs, and environmental impacts have raised concerns among policy makers, automakers, and citizens alike. Recent efforts to commercialize PEVs are a response, in part, to these concerns. 2. Appeal of New Vehicle Options to an Expanding PEV Market Plug-in electric vehicles consist of battery electric vehicles (BEV) which run solely on electricity, and plug- in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) which are also powered by an electric motor, but can extend their range using an on-board internal combustion engine. The Nissan Leaf, a BEV, can drive approximately 70 electric miles or more before requiring a recharge. The Chevrolet Volt, a PHEV, is capable of driving approximately 40 miles in all-electric mode and can extend its range by over 300 miles using its internal combustion engine. The two vehicle types are likely to appeal to potential customers based on a number of factors, including intended vehicle use. 3. Technological Innovations Although a number of factors contribute to the current PEV market tailwinds, the production and widespread adoption of these vehicles would not occur in the absence of recent technological innovations. Indeed, technology has created the potential for a second transportation revolution. Improvements in battery technologies and on-vehicle chargers and development of the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle drivetrain are among the critical technology milestones that have provided momentum to the current pace of PEV innovation and market development.2 These advances have improved vehicle range, reduced vehicle component costs and introduced greater flexibility to customer charging options, all of which have made PEVs more attractive to potential buyers. PHEVs, in particular, have the potential to encourage wider acceptance of PEVs since these vehicles resolve range anxiety, which is often cited as the principal obstacle to customer acceptance. If additional driving range is needed, PHEVs have an internal combustion engine that can extend their range by several hundred miles. As a result of these innovations, over the past few years every major automaker and a number of startups have announced plans to introduce mass market PEVs. The first mass produced PEVs arrived at showrooms in late 2010, while a number of other models are due to launch within a few years. These are expected to range from two seat roadsters and four-door cars to small vans and sport utility vehicles. Appendix 4 summarizes the nineteen PEV models announced for production by the year 2012. Similar to recent advances in the automotive industry, the electric utility industry is undergoing a transformation in how it produces and delivers electricity. SCE is an industry leader in the evaluation and 2 There have also been substantial innovations in the development of other alternative fuel vehicles such as natural gas vehicles and hybrid fuel cell vehicles (in addition to improvements in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles). All alternative fuel vehicles face the two principal challenges of high vehicle acquisition costs and potentially inadequate fueling infrastructure. While PEV pricing includes a premium over conventional vehicles, the fueling infrastructure poses less of a challenge than it does for other alternative fuel vehicles since every customer premises has a power outlet that can potentially be used to charge a PEV.
  • 14. 10 deployment of numerous energy and communications infrastructure technologies. PEV owners will benefit from utility investments in smart grid technology, which will enhance the integration of vehicle charging with electrical system needs while also providing improved situational awareness to empower customer energy management. 4. Federal and State Regulatory Policies While technological innovation has turned PEVs into a potential mass market product, federal and state policies have provided much of the impetus for their early-market development. Federal income tax credits for the purchase of PEVs and related charging equipment provide incentives for early-market PEV adoption. Federal policies also target the automotive industry through tighter fuel efficiency standards and financial support for developing advanced technology vehicles and related components. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) authorized grants of over $2 billion for U.S.-based manufacturers of advanced batteries and electric vehicle components. In addition to providing stimulus during the economic downturn, a parallel objective of the ARRA funding was to support the emergence of a domestic PEV manufacturing base. Appendix 2 summarizes the key federal policies supporting PEV market development. California policies have also played an important role in jump-starting the PEV market. Through its Zero- Emission Vehicle Program (ZEV mandate) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), the California Air Resources Board (CARB) increasingly influences the types of vehicles and fuels sold in California. The ZEV mandate requires that a share of each manufacturer’s new vehicle sales consist of vehicles with near-zero and zero tailpipe emissions.3 Zero emission and near-zero emission vehicles include battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. CARB is in the process of updating the required number and type of zero-emissions vehicles through the year 2020. Whereas the ZEV mandate regulates the types of vehicles sold in California, the LCFS governs the types of fuels sold in California. The LCFS requires oil refineries and distributors to reduce the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by ten percent by the year 2020 through declining greenhouse gas emission targets. Fueling a PEV with electricity will also generate LCFS credits.4 These credits could potentially provide incentives for the PEV market on a long term basis. In 2009 the California legislature passed Assembly Bill 626 in an effort to address the potential impacts of electric vehicles on California’s electric infrastructure. This bill ordered the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to evaluate and implement policies to develop electrical system infrastructure sufficient to remove any potential barriers to PEV adoption. In response, the CPUC launched the Alternative Fueled Vehicle Order Instituting Rulemaking proceeding (AFV OIR).5 The CPUC’s Phase One decision in 3 Beginning in 1998, the Zero Emission Vehicle program required that two percent of each major automaker’s in-state vehicle sales consist of zero- emissions vehicles (ZEV). The required ZEV sales share was originally set to increase to ten percent by 2003, but the ZEV mandate subsequently underwent multiple revisions that relaxed these requirements in the early 2000s. A handful of automakers initially produced limited numbers of BEVs for the California market to comply with these requirements. But when the ZEV requirements were amended, BEV production and sales growth slowed. 4 The California Air Resources Board is currently evaluating the treatment of LCFS credits, including how they are earned and by which party. 5 Appendix 3 summarizes the key California policies supporting PEV market development.
  • 15. 11 this proceeding acknowledged that PEV charging station operators—also referred to as Electric Vehicle Service Providers or EVSPs—are neither utilities nor Energy Service Providers (ESP) and will therefore not be regulated by the CPUC as utilities unless they procure electricity from the wholesale market (i.e., not from a regulated investor-owned utility). If an EVSP purchases energy on the wholesale market for sale to its customers, the EVSP would be subject to procurement requirements enforced by the CPUC.6 Figure 5 summarizes the types of PEV charging products and services providers. Figure 5: Providers of PEV Charging Products and Services Manufacturer Manufacture PEV charging station equipment. Installer Install charging stations. Includes both local and national providers. Owner Own or lease the charging station. The owner may or may not also be the operator. Operator (EVSP) Operate charging stations (provide electricity fuel in a bundled service). Includes host sites or 3rd parties. Terminology: A number of terms are often used within the industry to describe the various 3rd party providers of products and services for PEV charging. The figure above lists the categories of these product and service providers, and provides a definition for each term. The term “EVSP” is sometimes incorrectly used to refer to some or all of these 3rd parties, when it should only be used to refer to the charge station operator. 5. Appeal of Electric Vehicles in California While innovation and regulation converge to support PEV adoption, consumers are also turning to more efficient alternative transportation due to a combination of environmental and geopolitical considerations, government incentives (financial and non-financial), and fuel cost concerns. As gasoline prices have risen over the past decade, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have gained market share in the Los Angeles area (see Figure 6).7 In fact, people living in California were 220 percent more likely to purchase a hybrid than in the United States population on average.8 The strength of hybrid vehicle sales is a key reason why major automotive manufacturers have selected California as one of the first PEV launch markets.9 However, it should be noted that despite their success, HEVs currently account for only two percent of new vehicle sales in the U.S.10 6 Such procurement requirements include the Renewables Portfolio Standard, Resource Adequacy, and the Emissions Performance Standard. AFV OIR Phase One Decision, page 25. 7 Hybrid electric vehicles use both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor to power themselves. Unlike a PEV, an HEV does not plug- in to the power grid source to recharge its battery. Rather, HEVs obtain their energy either from the internal combustion engine, or by converting the vehicle’s kinetic energy into electricity through a process known as regenerative braking, a process also used by PEVs. See Appendix 1 for graphical representation of this vehicle type. 8 This percentage was calculated by SCE by dividing California’s share of U.S. hybrid sales by California’s share of total U.S. auto sales for years 2006 through 2008. The 220 percent represents the average of these three years. 9 Los Angeles is among the initial market launch areas for the first PEV models to be introduced by General Motors, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Coda. 10 This percentage was calculated based on 2011 year to date vehicle sales data on the hybridcars.com August 2011 dashboard.
  • 16. 12 6. Gasoline Prices are More Volatile than Electricity Prices Figure 6 displays the volatility of gasoline and electricity prices over the past several decades.11 Whereas electricity prices have remained steady, gasoline prices have been subject to sudden and pronounced swings. Although geopolitical instability and economic crises have traditionally been the primary causes of gasoline price movements, increased demand from high-growth emerging markets combined with limited supply will likely continue to drive price increases. FIGURE 5 - RETAIL GASOLINE AND ELECTRICITY PRICE COMPARISONFigure 6: Retail Gasoline and Electricity Price Comparison | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July July 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 $/Gallon Equivalent Cumulative Hybrid Sales Gasoline Price Electricity Price Hybrid Sales Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2011 To illustrate the potential fuel cost savings from replacing an internal combustion engine vehicle with a PEV, Figure 7 compares the cost to fuel each type of vehicle.12 It is important to note that the fuel cost advantages of PEVs are higher for customers who select appropriate time-of-use (TOU) rates and charge 11 The electricity price per gallon equivalent was converted from dollars per kWh to dollars per gallon assuming a PEV achieves 3.4 miles per kWh, and that an internal combustion engine vehicle achieves 30 miles per gallon. 12 This figure presents the energy cost per mile for two PEV models (a compact vehicle and a truck), two comparable gasoline vehicles, and a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). This example uses the current approximate gasoline price of $4/gallon, and the current EV-1 off-peak rate of $0.11/kWh. The vehicle with the lowest energy cost per mile is the PEV compact, at about $0.03 per mile, which is about 20 percent of the cost of fueling a gasoline compact vehicle. There is a similar cost advantage to fueling a PEV truck over an equivalent gasoline-powered truck. The fuel efficiencies of the PEV compact vehicle and PEV truck are assumed to be 3.5 and 2 miles per kWh, while the equivalent gasoline vehicles are assumed to achieve 27 and 16 miles per gallon. The HEV fuel efficiency is assumed to be 50 miles per gallon.
  • 17. 13 during off-peak hours, or for tiered-rate customers with low overall household usage. Customers who charge their vehicles using their existing tiered rates—or those who enroll in a TOU rate and subsequently charge during on-peak hours—may pay electricity costs comparable to the cost to fuel a gasoline vehicle. In addition, customers who want to charge their vehicles more quickly using Level II charging are currently required to install Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE). In some cases the cost of purchasing and installing this equipment can amount to several thousand dollars. FIGURE 6 - FUEL COST COMPARISON Figure 7: Fuel Cost Comparison Energy Cost per Mile Compact PEV (Electric) Truck PEV (Electric) Hybrid (Gas) Compact (Gas) Truck (Gas) $- $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 Current EV Rate ($0.11) Current EV Rate ($0.11) Current Gas Price ($4) Current Gas Price ($4) -50% -50% -50% -50% +50% +50% +50% +50% Current Gas Price ($4) -50% +50%