[I did not find this report one bit useful as I like secondary and tertiary markets that do better than these top tier markets... and cashflow] SimplePassiveCashflow.com/mfh

1. BY ARBOR
2018 TOP U.S. MARKETS
FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY LENDING REPORT
2019
TOP U.S. MARKETS
FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT

2. 1 | 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT
OVERVIEW
This report takes an in-depth look at how the landscape for large multifamily investment1
has
evolved over the past year, and where demand growth is forecasted in the year ahead. The analysis
is broken out into three sections: an opportunity
index where metros are ranked based on
investment growth prospects; a breakdown of
how lending and investment has shifted within
and between metros of different sizes, grouped
into three tiers; and a spotlight on the New York
metro area’s large multifamily profile. The biggest
takeaway from this research is investment activity
is increasingly concentrated in both Sun Belt
metros, where labor demand is accelerating
rapidly, and tech centers across the country, both
small and large. In short, the real estate community is betting on the cities capable of providing the
workforce of tomorrow, today.
OPPORTUNITY MATRIX
To account for market-size differences, our analysis classifies metropolitan markets based on factors
such as population, density and existing multifamily lending activity. The top-50 U.S. markets, which
are measured at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level, are sorted into the following tiers:
KEY FINDINGS
1. REGIONAL TECH CENTERS REMAIN HOT SPOTS FOR
MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT
2. ORLANDO STANDS AS THE DIRECT BENEFICIARY OF
FLORIDA’S STRONG JOB GROWTH
3. LED BY BROOKLYN, NEW YORK CAPTURES THE TOP
SHARE OF MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT NATIONALLY

3. 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT | 2
ARBOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY OPPORTUNITY INDEX
The Arbor Large Multifamily Opportunity Index is a qualitative composite ranking of metro markets
with the greatest potential for large multifamily investment growth. The rankings consider both
demand- and supply-side factors, where fundamentals necessary for sustainable multifamily
growth are compared against levels of large multifamily lending and investment activity.
Beginning with Tier 1, Boston claims the top spot for the 2019 rankings, just barely edging out
Dallas. According to Chandan Economics’ analysis, Boston had the sixth-highest large multifamily
lending volume in the 12-months ending June 2019. Bean Town lags only New York in new multifamily
structure permits, registering 506 in the 12-months ending in June 2019.2
However, New York’s
resident population is more than four times as large as Boston’s. When controlling for the existing
population, new multifamily permits in Boston far outpace the Big Apple in terms of both new
housing units and new multifamily structures. Compared to all other Tier 1 metros, Boston has
the highest share of Millennial renters, accounting for 35.5% of the metro’s renter population.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey

4. 3 | 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT
For the Tier 2 metros, Seattle tops the list. The Emerald City continues to be a hot spot for attracting
top tech companies and talent, with 15.7% of renters working in science, technology, engineering,
arts/design or mathematics (STEAM) occupations.4
For the other seven metros in Tier 2, the average
concentration of STEAM renters stood at 12.7%. Headlines about slowing national employment
growth have persisted throughout 2019, yet Seattle is trending in a more optimistic direction as
employment growth is accelerating. As of July 2019, Seattle’s workforce is growing at a 3.3% year-
over-year rate, more than twice the national rate of 1.5%.5
Multifamily permitting in Seattle is also
among the highest nationally. Measured by permits for new multifamily units and structures,
Seattle ranks sixth and seventh in the country, respectively.6
Returning to claim its Tier 3 crown is Orlando. Along with the rest of the state of Florida, Orlando is
experiencing a rapidly expanding labor market. Orlando’s year-over-year employment growth as of
July 2019 hit 3.8%, the fastest rate for all of the top-50 metros.7
Widening the scope to include all of the country’s smaller metro markets (396 in total), including
Orlando, five of the 15 fastest-growing MSAs are in Florida. Orlando’s employment base grew by
49,000 workers during the 12-months ending in July 2019, the most significant growth of any
Tier 3 metro.8
Between 2015 and 2017, Orlando’s renter population grew by an average of 2.1%
annually, second to only Omaha across the top 50.9
Orlando is also outperforming other metros in attracting key demographic groups, which bodes
well for continued multifamily demand growth. Among the 34 metros included in Tier 3, Orlando
has the fourth-highest annual renter population growth rate of seniors (heads of household age 65
and older) at 7.5%, and the seventh-highest for STEAM workers.10
Large multifamily lending has ramped up in the Sunshine State’s third-largest metro. Orlando leads
both all other Tier 3 metros and all Florida metros, including Miami and Tampa, in attracting large
multifamily lending.11
Orlando captured a 47.2% share of large multifamily originations volume for
the 12-months ending June 2019, compared to 28.7% for Tampa and 24.1% for Miami.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Through July 2019. Seattle measured at the MSA-level.

5. 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT | 4
LARGE MULTIFAMILY LENDING TRENDS
Multifamily investment across U.S. markets is not uniform. Differences exist based on urban density,
labor composition, geographic region and economic fundamentals. In this section, we analyze
loans originated in the 12-month periods ending in June 2018 and June 2019 to examine how the
market for large multifamily lending is evolving across the top-50 U.S. metros. For this analysis, we
define large multifamily loans as those with original balances above $15 million. We break this
down further by sorting loans into two groups: loans with original balances between $15 million
and $50 million, and loans with original balances above $50 million.12
Looking first at loans between $15 million and $50 million, smaller metros, as captured in Tier 3,
lead the way. A little less than half (46%) of the lending volume for $15 million to $50 million loans
are on assets in Tier 3 metros. Compared to the prior year (ending June 2018), Tier 3 metros’ share
has barely budged, inching up by 30 basis points (bps). Gateway metros (Tier 1) accounted for about
33% of lending activity, rising about 80 bps from the prior 12 months. Metros in Tier 2 saw the
biggest drop off over the past year, losing 120 bps of market share, now accounting for 21% of the
$15 million to $50 million multifamily lending activity.
Source: Chandan Economics
Source: Chandan Economics

6. 5 | 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT
Despite Tier 2’s declining national share, measured as a percentage of Tier 2’s total multifamily
lending activity, $15 million to $50 million loans are increasingly prevalent. From June 2018 to June
2019, an additional 3% of lending activity occurred in this range, now accounting for about 58% of
all originations by volume. The metros in Tier 2 were the only ones to see an average share increase,
as Tier 1 and Tier 3 markets saw drops of 40 bps and 190 bps, respectively.
Turning now to multifamily loans above $50 million, we see that, as expected, Tier 1 markets
continue to dominate all other markets in attracting large swaths of capital. Simply, these
gateway markets have the inventory and population levels necessary to support scaled multifamily
investment. The top-eight U.S. markets accounted for a little less than 60% of national originations
above $50 million in the year ending June 2018, rising to over 61% in the year ending June 2019.
The biggest gainer of $50 million-plus loans was Tier 3 markets, which saw their national share
rise by an impressive 5.4%, claiming 25% of qualifying lending activity.
Source: Chandan Economics
Source: Chandan Economics

7. 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT | 6
Tier 3’s rising share of large multifamily investment comes as regional tech centers continue to
emerge. Of the top-10 metros with the fastest-growing renter populations in STEAM occupations,
nine are in Tier 3, with Nashville, Omaha and Kansas City leading the pack.13
Analyzing $50 million-plus loans as part of the distribution of lending within each tier tells a
similar story. These large loans rose to account for 46% and 21% of lending activity in Tier 1 and
Tier 3 metros, respectively. Once again, Tier 2 trails its market piers as the above $50 million share
of multifamily lending in these markets dropped by a weighty 578 bps, accounting for less than
24% of all lending by volume.
MARKET SPOTLIGHT: NEW YORK
“The more things change, the more they remain the same.” When Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr
wrote those words is 1848, it’s unlikely that he was talking about the climate for multifamily
investment in the New York Metro area, though he might as well have been.
New York City and the surrounding area have the uncanny knack for constant reinvention. Twenty
years ago, the idea of a Brooklyn skyline may have seemed farfetched. The same could be said for
Long Island City or Jersey City. Even the Manhattan skyline continues to transform, with towering
examples of functional and artistic design filling in the empty spaces of Gotham’s stratosphere.
New York captured the highest share of large multifamily lending of any U.S. metropolitan area
in the year ending June 2019. About 28% of all gateway market multifamily originations above
$15 million were for properties in the New York City area.14
Compared to the next most active
market, Los Angeles, New York captured an astounding 105% more lending volume.
Source: Chandan Economics

8. 7 | 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT
Looking at how this lending activity breaks out across the New York metro area, Brooklyn is
the epicenter for new investment. Excluding loans originated in Staten Island, Long Island and
suburban New Jersey, Brooklyn captures about 37% of the metro area’s large multifamily originations
by volume.15
Manhattan remains close behind, accounting for a shade more than 34%. Fueled by
Long Island City’s new high-rise developments, Queens captures 17%. The PATH train trio of Newark,
Jersey City, and Hoboken claim 9%, and lastly, the Bronx accounts for 3%.
Source: Chandan Economics
Source: Chandan Economics

9. 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT | 8
New York’s labor market remains exceptionally tight. As of July 2019, the civilian unemployment
rate across the metro area stood at 3.7%, directly in line with the national average.16
Since the end
of 2017, wage growth in the New York City area has well outperformed the country as a whole.
Measured quarterly, average hourly earnings are increasing year-over-year by 4.0% in New York
compared to 3.1% nationally.17
While there has been discussion around New York City’s declining resident population,18
the
‘doom and gloom’ accounts of an urban exodus are overblown. Annual figures suggest that the
New York MSA shrunk by about 19,500 people in 2018, or measured another way, the metro lost
just 53 residents per day.19
In the period after the Great Recession, New York was adding more
than 1,400 new resident every day.
Over the same period, the New York metro added close to 122,000 employees to the workforce.20
The net result of these two trends is that there is a higher share of New York’s resident population
participating in the labor market. The employment-to-population ratio has steadily risen every year
since 2010, rising from 43.9% to 49.2% in 2018.21
Additionally, as of July 2019, New York added 145,600 new employees from the year earlier, about
16,000 more than any other city.22
When reading the tea leaves for positive urban impact, the
question of population growth versus employment growth has been front and center for a long
time. The consensus is that after accounting for employment growth, the effect of population
growth is negligible.23
Rent growth in New York has also accelerated over the past year. Through second-quarter 2019,
apartment rents are up 3.2% from the year earlier.24
Since the end of 2017, wages in New York have,
on average, more than kept pace with the rate of increases.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Through 2018

10. 9 | 2019 TOP U.S. MARKETS FOR LARGE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT REPORT
After accounting for the increase in the cost of rent, apartment households had an additional
0.85% income in mid-2019 compared to the year earlier.25
This is, of course, measuring averages,
and the effects of rent growth are well distributed across asset and location quality, while income
growth patterns are more isolated between sectors. Rent is generally taking up a smaller portion of
New Yorkers’ paychecks. However, workers who have not had meaningful income gains are facing
increasing housing cost burdens and eroding affordability remains a citywide concern.
The New York City metropolitan area is well-positioned to benefit from the evolving nature of
the global economy, which should support large multifamily investment growth now and into
the future. According to the Savills Tech Cities Index, based on factors such as talent, real estate,
business environment and livability, to name a few, New York is ranked as the top tech city in not
just the U.S., but the entire world.26
The biggest names in tech widely consider a New York presence
an operational necessity, and the high density of universities in the immediate and surrounding
areas will help to ensure that the labor supply keeps pace with rising demand.
In the year ending June 2019, the New York MSA had permitted more than 18,000 multifamily units
for construction, 53% more than the next most active metro, Dallas.27
Positive feedback loops are at
play in the New York City area. Top firms choose to locate here, which in turn attracts high-skilled
workers, which then attracts more firms to the city. As the process continues, the metro’s appetite
for commercial real estate and centrally located multifamily properties will only expand. There is
little evidence to suggest that this loop is at risk of breaking, and as long as it remains intact, so
to will New York’s dominance in attracting large multifamily investment.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Through June 2019

11. Disclaimer
All content is provided herein “as is” and neither Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. or Chandan Economics, LLC (“the Companies”)
nor any affiliated or related entities, nor any person involved in the creation, production and distribution of the content
make any warranties, express or implied. The Companies does not make any representations regarding the reliability,
usefulness, completeness, accuracy, currency nor represent that use of any information provided herein would not
infringe on other third party rights. The Companies shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential damages
to the reader or a third party arising from use of the information contained herein.
1
All lending data is based on Chandan Economics’ analysis of a limited pool of multifamily mortgages, with original balances above $15 million considered
to be large loans for the purposes of this report. Data is through June 2019.
2
U.S. Census Bureau, Through June 2019
3
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey
4
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey
5
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Through July 2019
6
U.S. Census Bureau, Through June 2019
7
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Through July 2019
8
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Through July 2019
9
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey
10
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey
11
Chandan Economics, data through June 2019.
12
All lending data is based on Chandan Economics’ analysis of a limited pool of multifamily mortgages, with original balances above $15 million, considered
to be large loans for the purposes of this report. Data is through June 2019.
13
U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey.
14
Chandan Economics, data through June 2019.
15
Chandan Economics, data through June 2019.
16
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through July 2019.
17
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through July 2019. Measured by Average Hourly Earnings of All Private Employees.
18
Thompson, Derek. “Why Are America’s Three Biggest Metros Shrinking?” The Atlantic, 9 Sept. 2019, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/
americas-three-biggest-metros-shrinking/597544/.
19
U.S. Census Bureau, data through year-end 2018.
20
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through year-end 2018.
21
U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through year-end 2018.
22
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through July 2019.
23
Florida, Richard. “The Great Growth Disconnect: Population Growth Does Not Equal Economic Growth.” CityLab, 30 Sept. 2013, www.citylab.com/
life/2013/09/great-growth-disconnect-population-growth-does-not-equal-economic-growth/5860/.
24
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through June 2019. Measured by Consumer Price Index: Rent of Primary Residence.
25
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through June 2019. Measured as the difference between year-over-year percent change in Consumer Price Index:
Rent of Primary Residence and Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Average Hourly Earnings for All Private Employees.
26
“Tech Cities: Compare City Technology Statistics.” Savills, 2019, www.savills.co.uk/tech-cities/index.html#intro.
27
U.S. Census Bureau, data through June 2019.