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Is Lyme Possible in Colorado?
1. HAVE TICKS
FOUND A HOME
ON THE RANGE?
The correlation between Lyme
disease carrying ticks and
precipitation in Colorado
By Kate Mericle
2. LYME DISEASE
Symptoms Treatment
Rash
Joint swelling
Heart palpitations
Shooting pain
Short-term memory loss
Inflammation of central
nervous system
Facial Palsy
CDC recommends 2-3 weeks
of antibiotics
“Lyme-Literate” MDs treat with
long-term (two years)
antibiotics, mixed success
Certain species of ticks
Early Summer
Possibly congenital
Possibly sexual
Transmission
3. PROBLEM STATEMENT
Treatment is most effective if caught early, but it can take years to
get diagnosed, partly due to inaccurate distribution models.
“A (Colorado) Lyme doc put together my symptoms after
Children’s hospital refused to believe I had Lyme disease even
though I had a positive test.”
“Was ignored in Oregon. Actually told it didn’t exist there.”
“Doctors recultant to test because they believe it’s rare in
Arkansas.”
4. Currently Recognized
Distribution Pattern
According to the CDC…
Based off county of
residence, not location of
tick bite
Under-reported in endemic
areas
Over-reported in non-
endemic areas. I am
challenging this.
5. Non-Endemic Areas
CDC’s theory: Lyme is
misdiagnosed or the
patient traveled to the
Northeast
But….
Doctors aren’t
looking for Lyme
Don’t report for fear
of litigation
6. NATIONALLY REPORTED CASES IN
COLORADO
Seven cases
reported between
2008-2010
CDC “confirmed” 3
cases
County of residence,
not necessarily
infection
7. LIMITATIONS OF PAST
DISTRIBUTION MODELS
Models like this one are
asking…
Can they COMPLETE the life
cycle?
Variables
Averages by county
What about micro-climates?
What about snowmelt?
Source: Brownstein, Holford, and Fish,
2013
8. SURVEY
Results
Over 250 total responses
70 people infected in the West
Five in Colorado
Clustered where May is the
wettest month of the year
Two in Fort Collins
One in Poudre Canyon
One in Firestone
One in Keystone
Source: Colorado Climate Center
9. Precipitation comparison 1998
Location: Poudre Canyon
Confidence level 80%
Could not locate historical
precipitation data
10. Precipitation comparison 2003
Location: Keystone
Confidence level 100%
STORY: “We went to a
festival in Keystone,
and I think I got it from
petting the horses,
which they probably
shipped in from out of
state. They were
Budweiser horses…
Clydesdales.
11. Precipitation comparison 2006
Location: Fort Collins
Confidence level 50%
STORY: “Misdiagnosed
for five years by multiple
doctors. No one ran a
Lyme test for five years.”
12. Precipitation comparison 2013
Location: Firestone
Confidence level 100%
STORY: “clearing off
brush and tall grass for a
garden”
13. Precipitation comparison 2014
Location: Fort Collins
Confidence level 100%
STORY: “I was definitely
bit in the city limits of Fort
Collins. I hadn’t been
anywhere else.”
14. POTENTIAL CHANGES DUE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Increasing temperature = increase humidity. by default
Inconclusive precipitation predications
Current conditions are highly variable
Streams
Peak melt will be earlier, increasing spring flow, decreasing late summer flow
Projections Range from -15% to +29%
Northeast CO more likely than the rest of the state to get wetter
Southwest CO more likely to get drier
15. RARE –BUT POSSIBLE
Nymphs can transfer hosts if not yet embedded upon arrival to
CO.
Larvae can change into a nymph on especially wet years.
Wet years may become more frequent in Northeastern CO
It only takes one bite.