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American Tower Corporation
Michigan Interactive Investments 2016
Stock Pitch Competition
Julian Fung
Michael Poindexter
David Shoko
Compelling Valuation
Strong Growth Drivers
Market leader in Tower Industry
Robust Business Model
Highlights
American Tower is Poised for
Steady Long-Term Growth
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
BUY
Current Price:
$112.63
(As of 9/28/2016)
Target Price:
$132.58
Upside:
+17.7%
• One of largest Wireless Communications and Broadcast
Operator
• Over 144,000 towers globally
• 700+ Distributed Antenna Services (DAS)
• Business segments:
• Global rental & management
• Network development services
Business Description
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Business Description
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
AT&T (U.S.)
17%
Verizon
15%
Sprint
10%
T-Mobile
8%
Other U.S.(2)
8%
International
Tenant
Revenue 28%
International
Pass-through Revenue
13%
Property Revenue by Customer (1)
16%
9%
Total Revenue by Segment
US Latin America Asia EMEA
17% 58%
Business Model
• Recurring revenue streams
• Non-cancellable
• Initial 10 year contract;
5 year renewals
• Low variable cost
• Accommodating
additional tenants
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
$9 $10
$14
$19 $20
$23
$27
$32
AMT Non-Cancellable
Lease Revenue
($ in Billions, As of Period
End)
$30
3%
13%
24%
8%
17%
25%
13%
21%
32%
12%
23%
33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
One Tenant Two Tenants Three Tenants
Sample Return on Investments(2)
Domestic Market Africa IndiaLatAm
American Tower History
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
American Tower Today
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Industry Overview
Porter’s Five Forces
Degree of Rivalry – MODERATELY HIGH
New Entrants – LOW
Substitutes – LOW
Supplier Power – LOW
Buyer Power - MODERATE
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
0
1
2
3
4
5
Degree of Rivalry
New Entrants
SubstitutesSupplier Power
Buyer Power
Industry Overview
SWOT Analysis
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
•
Strengths Weaknesses
• Global presence
• Recurring revenue model
• Large asset base
• Client base
• Inability to control demand
Opportunities Threats
• Smartphone and data demand
• 5G
• Increasing telecom
investments
• Spectrum availability
• Mergers
• New technologies could impact
demand
Growth/Demand Drivers
• Increasing mobile data traffic:
• 3G/4G deployment & enhancements
• 50% market share through 2025
• 5G roadmap
• Expanding global presence:
• Verizon acquisition
• India tower acquisition
• September REIT split
$1,426
$4,680
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Total Property Revenue
($ in Millions)
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Growth/Demand Drivers
• Consistent U.S. demand
• 13% CAGR
• Low churn rate (1-2%)
• Strong international
growth
• 24% CAGR
19,606
40,089
$890 $965 $1,041
$1,178
$1,314
$1,497
$1,680
$1,999
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Property Operating Profit($ in Millions)
Operating Profit Tower Count
~2.4 Tenants per Tower ~2.2 Tenants per Tower
$2,340
International Property Operating Profit ($ in Millions)
Operating Profit Tower Count
$140 $166 $172
$217
$338
$705
$574
$453
$805
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3,201
60,042
~1.8 Tenants per Tower ~1.6 Tenants per Tower
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Dividends
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Quarter Common Stock
Q2 2016 $0.53
Q1 2016 $0.51
Q4 2015 $0.49
Q3 2015 $0.46
Q2 2015 $0.44
Q1 2015 $0.42
Investments Thesis
• Market leader in the tower industry space
• Acquisitions create greater economies of scale
• Increase deployment 3G/4G networks across the world
• Introduction of 5G network is a huge growth catalyst
• Healthy cash flow provides room for dividend growth
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Investment Risks
• A network carrier merger would affect revenues
• Reduction in CapEx spending by carriers
• Acquisition integration risk
• Rise in interest rates adversely affects the REIT sector
• Loss in Credit Rating
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Valuation
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
DCF
$131.16
50%
P/FFO
Multiple
$133.98
25%
Target Price:
$132.58
• Discounted Cash Flow (50%):
• Net Operating Income(NOI)
• Free Cash Flow
Relative Multiple Valuation (50%):
• P/FFO* (25%)
• EV/EBITDA (25%)
Use of Funds From Operations (FFO) -
Depreciation not a business cost for REITs*
EV/EBITDA
Multiple
$134.03
25%
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Assumptions:
• Projected High Growth Rate of 8%
• Terminal growth of 4%
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
WACC:6.18%
DCF (50%):
$131.16
Relative Valuation
Assumptions (next year):
• Adjusted FFO: $6.45 (High CapEx by AMT)
• FFO: $3.30
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
Multiples (50%):
$134.01
Compelling Valuation
Strong Growth Drivers
Market leader in Tower Industry
Robust Business Model
Highlights
BUY
Introduction
Company
Overview
Industry
Overview
Investment
Thesis Valuation Summary
American Tower is Poised for
Steady Long-Term Growth
Current Price:
$112.63
(As of 9/28/2016)
Target Price:
$132.58
Upside:
+17.7%

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MII Pitch - FungPoindexterShoko

  • 1. American Tower Corporation Michigan Interactive Investments 2016 Stock Pitch Competition Julian Fung Michael Poindexter David Shoko
  • 2. Compelling Valuation Strong Growth Drivers Market leader in Tower Industry Robust Business Model Highlights American Tower is Poised for Steady Long-Term Growth Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary BUY Current Price: $112.63 (As of 9/28/2016) Target Price: $132.58 Upside: +17.7%
  • 3. • One of largest Wireless Communications and Broadcast Operator • Over 144,000 towers globally • 700+ Distributed Antenna Services (DAS) • Business segments: • Global rental & management • Network development services Business Description Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
  • 4. Business Description Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary AT&T (U.S.) 17% Verizon 15% Sprint 10% T-Mobile 8% Other U.S.(2) 8% International Tenant Revenue 28% International Pass-through Revenue 13% Property Revenue by Customer (1) 16% 9% Total Revenue by Segment US Latin America Asia EMEA 17% 58%
  • 5. Business Model • Recurring revenue streams • Non-cancellable • Initial 10 year contract; 5 year renewals • Low variable cost • Accommodating additional tenants Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary $9 $10 $14 $19 $20 $23 $27 $32 AMT Non-Cancellable Lease Revenue ($ in Billions, As of Period End) $30 3% 13% 24% 8% 17% 25% 13% 21% 32% 12% 23% 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% One Tenant Two Tenants Three Tenants Sample Return on Investments(2) Domestic Market Africa IndiaLatAm
  • 8. Industry Overview Porter’s Five Forces Degree of Rivalry – MODERATELY HIGH New Entrants – LOW Substitutes – LOW Supplier Power – LOW Buyer Power - MODERATE Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary 0 1 2 3 4 5 Degree of Rivalry New Entrants SubstitutesSupplier Power Buyer Power
  • 9. Industry Overview SWOT Analysis Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary • Strengths Weaknesses • Global presence • Recurring revenue model • Large asset base • Client base • Inability to control demand Opportunities Threats • Smartphone and data demand • 5G • Increasing telecom investments • Spectrum availability • Mergers • New technologies could impact demand
  • 10. Growth/Demand Drivers • Increasing mobile data traffic: • 3G/4G deployment & enhancements • 50% market share through 2025 • 5G roadmap • Expanding global presence: • Verizon acquisition • India tower acquisition • September REIT split $1,426 $4,680 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Property Revenue ($ in Millions) Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
  • 11. Growth/Demand Drivers • Consistent U.S. demand • 13% CAGR • Low churn rate (1-2%) • Strong international growth • 24% CAGR 19,606 40,089 $890 $965 $1,041 $1,178 $1,314 $1,497 $1,680 $1,999 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 U.S. Property Operating Profit($ in Millions) Operating Profit Tower Count ~2.4 Tenants per Tower ~2.2 Tenants per Tower $2,340 International Property Operating Profit ($ in Millions) Operating Profit Tower Count $140 $166 $172 $217 $338 $705 $574 $453 $805 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3,201 60,042 ~1.8 Tenants per Tower ~1.6 Tenants per Tower Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
  • 12. Dividends Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary Quarter Common Stock Q2 2016 $0.53 Q1 2016 $0.51 Q4 2015 $0.49 Q3 2015 $0.46 Q2 2015 $0.44 Q1 2015 $0.42
  • 13. Investments Thesis • Market leader in the tower industry space • Acquisitions create greater economies of scale • Increase deployment 3G/4G networks across the world • Introduction of 5G network is a huge growth catalyst • Healthy cash flow provides room for dividend growth Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
  • 14. Investment Risks • A network carrier merger would affect revenues • Reduction in CapEx spending by carriers • Acquisition integration risk • Rise in interest rates adversely affects the REIT sector • Loss in Credit Rating Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
  • 15. Valuation Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary DCF $131.16 50% P/FFO Multiple $133.98 25% Target Price: $132.58 • Discounted Cash Flow (50%): • Net Operating Income(NOI) • Free Cash Flow Relative Multiple Valuation (50%): • P/FFO* (25%) • EV/EBITDA (25%) Use of Funds From Operations (FFO) - Depreciation not a business cost for REITs* EV/EBITDA Multiple $134.03 25%
  • 16. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Assumptions: • Projected High Growth Rate of 8% • Terminal growth of 4% Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary WACC:6.18% DCF (50%): $131.16
  • 17. Relative Valuation Assumptions (next year): • Adjusted FFO: $6.45 (High CapEx by AMT) • FFO: $3.30 Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary Multiples (50%): $134.01
  • 18. Compelling Valuation Strong Growth Drivers Market leader in Tower Industry Robust Business Model Highlights BUY Introduction Company Overview Industry Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Summary American Tower is Poised for Steady Long-Term Growth Current Price: $112.63 (As of 9/28/2016) Target Price: $132.58 Upside: +17.7%