Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
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1. PSG WEALTH SOLUTIONS FEEDBACK
31 October 2017
The world is constantly turning. We
know how important it is to keep up.
That’s why we continually expand our
insurance and investment offerings,
that’s how we keep your best interests
at heart.
3. Page 3
Introduction
The previous 3 years have been tough!
• Investors expectations were perhaps a bit high following 2009-early 2015
• Global economic growth slowed
• Politicians dictated terms on a macro level
• None of the above was good for investors over this period
On the positive side, we expect improved conditions from here on in
• International politics are settling to an extent
• SA politics less disruptive to global markets than to “SA Inc. investments”
• We think selected equities are actually quite cheap right now
• Earnings are recovering
• Active managers are outperforming
• Fundamental research is being rewarded
• Sentiment is poor
• All of the above support a case for better investment outcomes
4. Page 4
Emerging markets & commodity prices
Global growth
• Emerging markets showing signs of recovery
• Commodity exporters the biggest beneficiaries
• The World Bank is forecasting 2.0% for SA by 2019.
• We believe economic growth will bottom out in Q3 2017
8. Page 8
PSG Multi-Management Process
Research process Performance evaluation
IDEA GENERATION
Objective: Flag
potential solutions
• Research screen the principle quantitative
technique
• Committee members responsible for
qualitative ideas
DUE DILIGENCE
Objective: Research
potential solutions
• Due diligence performed on screen ideas
• Results presented to the committee
IDEA DISMISSED / ADDED TO BENCH
Objective: Solution
identified for inclusion
on short notice, if
needed
• Manager presented to the committee
• Further case specific quantitative analysis
• Fund approved/rejected as adequate
alternative
ADD MANAGER TO THE “RADAR SCREEN”
Objective: Flag
underperformance
• Underperformance over all periods up to 1
year
PRESENTATION BY THE MANAGER
Objective:
Reassessment of
manager
• Presentation by manager
• Replaced or monitored for further 3 months
DISINVESTMENT / REPLACEMENT OF MANAGER
Objective:
Disinvestment /
replacement of
manager
• Risk posed by a change in philosophy, process
manager or team
• Strong belief that above reason will lead to
future underperformance
• Due diligence indicates superior substitute is
available
9. Page 9
PSG Multi-Management Disinvestment Policy
1. PERFORMANCE MONITORING PROCESS
Funds that underperform relevant to their benchmarks over 1 month, 3
months, 6 months and 1 year (all inclusive) are added to the radar
screen and investigated.
During this investigation it is important to establish whether the
underperformance is due to a view that, although justified, has been
unsuccessful, or whether the underperformance is due to a radical view
that is unlikely to realise.
2. THREATS THAT MAY COMPROMISE FUTURE PERFORMANCE
Additional aspects that may result in future underperformance are also
aspects that need to be evaluated, such as announced changes in
investment process, philosophy, management or management style as
well as fee structure changes, mandate changes and similar disclosed
structural amendments to an investment house or one of its portfolios.
3. RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Before it can be confirmed that one or more of these risks are present,
an interview must be performed with the relevant manager. The
purpose of the interview is therefore to ascertain whether future
performance of the portfolio is at risk.
4. DECISION MAKING PROCESS
Once the interview has been concluded the multi-manager should make
one of three decisions:
• Retain position with default restrictions
• Retain position with custom restrictions
• Disinvest
Investigate the possible impact of disinvestment and substitution on
the overall solution, including the impact on the asset allocation, fees
and other areas of concern.
5.DECISION IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
All disinvestment and new-investment decisions must be implemented
by way of a phasing-in and/or-out approach. The multi-manager will by
default, phase its transactions over a period of 4 weeks, unless specified
otherwise.
6. CONCLUSION
A disciplined approach within a predetermined framework for decision
making is followed when implementing the risk management process
and when considering disinvestment from a portfolio.
11. Page 11
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund: Highlights
• Top quartile performance over all periods greater than three months.
• Outperformed its benchmark over all periods since inception.
• Outperformed the benchmark over all rolling 12-month periods since
inception.
12. Page 12
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund
• Progress report on pending switches
No feedback outstanding.
• Feedback on funds on quantitative radar screen
No funds on the quantitative radar screen.
• Feedback on funds on qualitative radar screen
No funds on the qualitative radar screen.
• Feedback on fund-specific research
No feedback outstanding.
13. Page 13
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund: Composition
Actual as at 31 October 2017
PSG Wealth
Enhanced Interest
R Value (Mil) %
Total Value R 2 574,1 100,0%
SA IB Short Term Funds and Segregated Accounts Fund Manager R 2 547,1 99,0%
STANLIB Enhanced Yield Ansie van Rensburg R 486,4 18,9%
Nedgroup Core Income Taquanta R 486,3 18,9%
Prescient Yield QuantPlus Frazana Bayat R 486,5 18,9%
PSG AM* Hein Dietzsch R 1 088,0 42,3%
Cash and Bank Accounts R 27,0 1,0%
* Segregated accounts
STANLIB
Enhanced
Yield, 18.9%
Nedgroup
Core Income,
18.9%
Prescient
Yield
QuantPlus,
18.9%
PSG AM*,
42.3%
Cash and Bank
Accounts, 1.0%
29. Page 29
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Custom Investment
Universe Process
Global open-ended fund universe: 230 329 funds
Global Broad Category Group - Equity:
87 621 funds
UCITS Funds denominated in USD or
Pound Sterling: 17 718 funds
Minimum fund size in USD 100
million: 11 846 funds
3 year track record:
7 994 funds
Lowest TER class
of each fund:
1 836 funds
Remove
Constrained
portfolios:
298 funds
30. Page 30
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Custom Investment
Universe Process
• Constrained portfolios
Investment constraints (regions, sectors etc.)
Operational constraints (FoFs, sales regions, access to information etc.)
FSB approval constraints (non-UCITS; hedge funds etc.)
• Advantages
A more realistic ongoing management and review process
A more transparent process
A process that improves accountability and drives quality
A more appropriate peer group ranking
Creator
150
funds Global
Creator
298
funds
31. Page 31
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Highlights
• Top quartile performance over 3 and 4 years.
• Outperforms the peer group 100% of the time over 3-year rolling periods
• Outperformed the peer group by an average of 2.70% over 3-year rolling
periods
• Outperforms the peer group 84% of the time over 12-month rolling periods
• Outperformed the peer group by an average of 2.15% over 12-month rolling
periods
32. Page 32
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF
• Progress report on pending switches
No feedback outstanding.
• Feedback on funds on quantitative radar screen
Vulcan Value Equity added to the radar screen.
Schroder ISF QEP Global Core added to the radar screen.
Investec GSF Global Franchise removed from the radar screen.
• Feedback on funds on qualitative radar screen
Schroder ISF QEP Global Core added to the qualitative radar screen.
• Feedback on fund-specific research
No feedback outstanding.
33. Page 33
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Composition
Actual as at 31 October 2017
PSG Wealth Global
Creator FoF
$ Value (Mil) %
Total Value $ 412,88 100,0%
Offshore Equity Funds Fund Manager $ 410,80 99,5%
Goldman Sachs Global Equity Fund Global Equity Partners Team $ 45,29 11,0%
Investec Global Franchise Fund Clyde Rossouw $ 44,32 10,7%
Nedgroup Global Equity Fund Veritas Asset Management $ 45,38 11,0%
BlackRock Developed World Index Fund BlackRock AM Ireland Ltd $ 45,64 11,1%
Schroder International QEP Fund Global Equities Team $ 45,40 11,0%
Threadneedle Global Select Fund William Davies $ 46,19 11,2%
Fundsmith Equity Fund Terry Smith $ 46,97 11,4%
T. Rowe Price Global Focused Growth Equity Fund David J. Eiswert $ 46,48 11,3%
Vulcan Value Equity Fund Vulcan Value Partners $ 45,15 10,9%
Offshore Cash $ 2,08 0,5%
Goldman
Sachs Global
Equity Fund,
11.2%
Investec
Global
Franchise
Fund, 10.8%
Nedgroup
Global Equity
Fund, 11.0%
BlackRock
Developed
World Index
Fund, 11.1%
Schroder
International
QEP Fund,
10.8%
Threadneedle
Global Select
Fund, 11.2%
Fundsmith
Equity Fund,
10.9%
T. Rowe Price
Global Focused
Growth Equity
Fund, 11.1%
Vulcan Value
Equity Fund,
11.0%
Offshore Cash,
0.9%
38. Page 38
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF D (USD): Best, Worst and
Average Rolling Returns
39. Page 39
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Performance (USD)
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D Fundsmith Equity I Acc T. Rowe Price Global Focused Gr Eq I USD
Nedgroup Inv Funds Global Equity A Acc Threadneedle Global Select Ins Acc USD Schroder ISF QEP Global Core C Acc
Investec GSF Glb Franchise A Acc USD iShares Dev Wld Idx (IE) Instl Acc USD GS Glbl Equity Partners P Acc
Vulcan Value Equity USD II Acc GIFS Global Large-Cap Blend Equity (USD) Custom Investment Universe
40. Page 40
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Excess Performance (USD)
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D Fundsmith Equity I Acc T. Rowe Price Global Focused Gr Eq I USD
Nedgroup Inv Funds Global Equity A Acc Threadneedle Global Select Ins Acc USD Schroder ISF QEP Global Core C Acc
Investec GSF Glb Franchise A Acc USD iShares Dev Wld Idx (IE) Instl Acc USD GS Glbl Equity Partners P Acc
Vulcan Value Equity USD II Acc
41. Page 41
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Excess Performance (USD)
(Radar Screen Periods)
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF D Fundsmith Equity I Acc T. Rowe Price Global Focused Gr Eq I USD
Nedgroup Inv Funds Global Equity A Acc Threadneedle Global Select Ins Acc USD Schroder ISF QEP Global Core C Acc
Investec GSF Glb Franchise A Acc USD iShares Dev Wld Idx (IE) Instl Acc USD GS Glbl Equity Partners P Acc
Vulcan Value Equity USD II Acc
47. Page 47
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Currency And Regional
Exposure
USD
65.5%
GBP
8.9%
EUR
8.6%
YEN
5.4%
Others
11.7%
USA
60.3%
UK
8.4%
EU
14.7%
JAPAN
6.0%
Others
10.6%
48. Page 48
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: Top Ten Holdings
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Microsoft Corp
Alphabet Inc
Apple Inc
Oracle Corp
PayPal Holdings Inc
Johnson & Johnson
National Oilwell Varco Inc
Amazon.com Inc
Mastercard Inc
Comcast Corp
9,9%Top 10 Total =
49. Page 49
PSG Wealth Global Creator FOF: P/E Ratios
19.85
25.81 25.63
23.01
20.07
16.69
22.88
25.93
21.64
13.64
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
PSG Wealth
Global Creator
FoF D
GS Glbl Equity
Partners I USD
Acc
Investec GSF
Global
Franchise A Acc
Nedgroup Inv
Funds Global
Equity A Acc
BlackRock ISF
Dev Wld Idx
Sub $ Inst Acc
Schroder ISF
QEP Global
Core C Acc
Threadneedle
Glbl Select I
USD
Fundsmith
Equity I Acc
T. Rowe Price
Glbl Foc Grth
Eq I USD
Vulcan Value
Equity USD II
Acc
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF & Underlyings: PE Ratios
MSCI World Index (20,84)
51. Page 51
Questions?
Disclaimer: Affiliates of the PSG Wealth Group are authorised financial services
providers. The opinions expressed in this document are the opinions of the writer and
not necessarily those of PSG Wealth Group and do not constitute advice. Although the
utmost care has been taken in the research and preparation of this document, no
responsibility can be taken for actions taken on information in this document. Should
you require further information, please consult an adviser for a personalised opinion.
Vrywaring: Affiliale van die PSG Wealth Groep is gemagtigde finansiële dienste
verskaffers. Die opinies in hierdie dokument is dié van die skrywer en nie noodwendig
die van PSG Wealth Groep nie. Dit verteenwoordig nie advies nie. Alhoewel hoë sorg
geneem is in die navorsing en voorbereiding van hierdie dokument, kan geen
verantwoordelikheid geneem word vir enige optrede gebaseer op inligting in hierdie
dokument nie. Kontak derhalwe 'n adviseur indien u enige verdere inligting verlang of
vir persoonlike advies.
Editor's Notes
Van ‘n beleggings oogpunt, was 2016 ‘n moeilike jaar
Kliente se verwagtinge vir die jaar was dalk bietje hoog na afloop van die hoe mark prestasie in die periode vanaf 2009 tot 2015.
Maar, bate waardasies was baie hoog aan die begin van die jaar (en sommige bates is steeds relatief duur)
Politieke faktore het die mark gedryf op ‘n makro ekonomiese vlak
Niks van die bostaande was goed vir beleggers nie.
Op ‘n meer positiewe noot, verwag ons ‘n beter jaar in 2017
Ons dink op ‘n selektiewe basis is aandele eintlik relatief goedkoop
Maatskappy verdienste is besig om te herstel
Aktiewe bestuurders is besig om te uitpresteer (Waarde bestuurders het gesukkel, veral die meer bekende name, ons dink dit het verander)
Die mark oorweeg meer die onderliggende drywers van bates (bv. maatskappy verdienste, wins, rentekoerse ens.)
Verwagtinge is laag
Al die bogenoemde ondersteun beleggers in 2017
Emerging markets showing signs of recovery
Commodity exporters the biggest beneficiaries
The World Bank is forecasting 2.0% for SA by 2019.
We believe economic growth will bottom out in Q3 2017
Misery Index (33%) :
Indicator of sentiment as bad as in 2008
Unemployment at 27.7%
Inflation at 5.3%
Drought caused job losses in agri sector and created supply side inflation in the food component of the CPI basket
Think looking up though: both mining and agri sectors were the only two sectors to show growth in recent numbers
This will spill over into the rest of the economy: manufacturing and services
Of these low levels with think y-o-y GDP numbers will surprise to the upside in Q3 of 2018
Current historic PE ratio in light grey shows 19.73
Mean since 1995 was 15.33
Current is well-above longer term average and at almost 3 std dev- this is why some think we are in dangerous territory (easy to believe given the current economic backdrop)
BUT…
Cash overweight position due to negative outlook on most other flexible income assets.
On short term, SA interest rate pause likely to continue, but small adjustments up or down also possible
Long term, SA and FED rates will need to normalize.
Policymakers are concerned about MPC policy resources in the event of an unforeseen crisis
Therefore also concerned about property, in particular bricks and mortar
We remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects of equities