AgileMidwest2018-Yorke-ForecastingAndDarkArts

1. Forecasting and the dark arts
A guide by John Yorke

2. Where is this?

3. Estimating - How long to get there?

4. Forecasting - When will I get there?

5. Variability - How consistent are you?

6. Confidence - How sure are you?

7. How many turns to reach the end?

8. Expectations:

9. Reality:

10. Why do we forecast?

11. What to take away
Accuracy of forecasts is
generally the result of
scope adjustment rather
than a testament to your
forecasting skills.
Confidence is a trade-
off, not a measure of
accuracy.
Project delivery
variability is almost
always skewed to
longer.

12. Questions?