This document summarizes a thesis that compared the 1957 and 1960 Lebanese elections and their impact on stability. The 1960 elections had higher representation, as measured across criteria like electoral system and districting. The period following the 1957 elections saw more instability, including a civil war with over 3,000 casualties. The document recommends gradual electoral reforms to increase representation and stability, such as expanding the political arena, implementing technical reforms, and using a proportional system with flexibility for future changes. Overall, increasing representation through reformed elections can help strengthen stability in Lebanon's power-sharing system.

1. Representation and Stability
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OFTHE 1957 ANDTHE
1960 ELECTIONS IN LEBANON

2. A- Outline of this presentation:
A.Outline
B.Introduction
C.Organization
D.Methodology
E. Results
F. Recommendations
G.Conclusion

3. B- Introduction:
• This presentation will explore the thesis I presented last
spring in completion of my requirement for a MA in
political Studies at AUB.
• The thesis studied the relationship between
representation and stability, by comparing the level of
representation of the 1957 elections to 1960, and by
comparing the level of stability in the period following the
1957 election to the 1960 one. In order to draw the proper
conclusions and present possible recommendations.

4. Significance
• Lebanon’s parliamentary elections and the laws that
govern it have always been the center of intense debates,
and at times the cause of strife and clashes.
• Electoral reforms have been at the heart of every
reconciliation efforts, following incidents of civil strife
(1958, 1990, 2008)
• The importance of election, electoral laws, and
representation in the political and public arena.

5. Why I choose this subject?
•The misrepresentative nature of the 2000 and
2005 election in Saida
•The Boutros committee and debate
surrounding electoral laws
•Resurrecting the 1960 Law in 2009

7. C- Organization:
1. Theoretical overview of democracy in plural societies, power
sharing models, representation, with a focus on the intricacies of
the Lebanese political system
2. Historic overview of Lebanon since 1860, especially on this thesis
period of study (1955-1961)
3. Analyzing and comparing the representation of each elections
(1957 vs 1960) vis-a-vis the stability of each following period.
4. Exploring the different factors that affected stability, comparing it
to representation.
5. A presentation of pertinent recommendation stemming from the
findings of previous chapters.

8. D- Methodology:
•Following the theoretical and historical overview, a
two-step research methodology was used to
analyze, study, and compare the two variables of
this thesis: representation and stability.
1- Analytical comparison
2- Discourse analysis

9. 1. Analytical comparison of the representative nature of
each election (57 and 60) was based on preset criteria,
used by the European commission to measure the
fairness and the level of representation of elections:
• Electoral system
• districting
• number of deputies,
• campaign financing,
• state and public interference in elections
• technical electoral reforms (secret ballots)
• Security

10. Meanwhile, stability was measured based on these criteria:
• geographical spread of clashes
• Lebanese army involvement
• Number of armed men
• Number of casualties
• Foreign troops intervention
• Legislative activities
• Economic activities

11. 2.Discourse analysis of relevant opinions and
quotes of the major political, public, and
economic figure of the period.The discourse
analysis was strengthened by an investigation of
the US and UK diplomatic dispatches from the
period. (These documents were obtained during
a research visit to the NationalArchive in
Washington DC, and from Kew, London.)
D- Methodology: (Cont’d )

12. The national archives in the US and the UK

13. E- Results
• Representation:The results were unequivocal, out of the
criteria measuring representation, five out of seven clearly
showed that the 1960 elections was significantly more
representative than 1957.
• On the stability side, the results were similar; the period
following the 1957 was beset with a civil war that resulted
in more than 3000 casualties, and the government lost
control of large regions. Meanwhile the period after 1960
was much calmer.

14. •Although the correlation between the two variable
was strong, it was not sufficient in itself to draw the
proper conclusion.Without testing it against the
other factors put forth to explain the 1958 crisis.
•Therefore, the different factors that affected
stability and lead to the 1958 were explored, using
the same two-step methodology.

15. E- results (Cont’d)
Two group of factors were identified: internal and
external:
1. On the internal side, three factors were listed: the
1957 election, President Chamoun bid for reelection
and Muslim discontent.
2.Externally, the regional turbulences and conflicts,
stemming from the tripartite attack on Egypt, and the
rising star of Nasser’s Arabism, in addition to the cold
war and the different regional alliances that the US
and the USSR formed, were considered as important
factors.

16. • Both internal and external factors were either directly
linked to representation, like the 57 election and Muslim
grievances, or indirectly through a breach of the national
accord, which affected the balance of power and by
consequences the representation of Muslims in the state.
• Externally it was President Chamoun’s choices and
decisions to side with the west that exasperated the
internal situation, going against the National Accords
stipulation that Lebanon should take a neutral foreign
policy.

17. E- Results (Cont’d)
•These results highlighted the importance of the
relation between representation and stability.Yet,
it is imperative to restate that there is always a
complex interrelationship between internal and
external factors, and once both dimensions of the
crisis collided, elucidating direct causality is beyond
the scope of this thesis.

18. F- Recommendations:
•Baby steps: Unfortunately, electoral reform in
Lebanon has become a politicized issue, especially
the electoral system and districting. Every political
leader has set his sight on a specific proposal,
which incidentally favors his own interests and
negatively affect his opponents.Thus, the debate is
deadlocked.

19. •Therefore, offering a constructed and overreaching
reform plan, would be impractical to implement,
especially when faced with the system’s immobility
and the politicians’ aversion to reform.The solution
is to implement several smaller and gradual
reform.These steps would focus on strengthening
the stability of Lebanon, by finding alternative
methods to increase representation.While
safeguarding the system’s effectiveness and its
ability to reform and adapt to unavoidable change.

20. The proposed Steps:
a- Opening up of the political arena and
increasing the number of deputies
b- Small technical electoral reform
c- Proportional electoral system
d- Adaptable and flexible electoral reform
proposals

21. a.Opening up of the political arena and increasing the
number of deputies
Overall, lowering the hurdles of entreing the political
arena and increasing the number of deputies are very
important steps.They effectively increase the
political arena’s size, enabling the emergence of new
political forces and parties, outside the control of the
main sectarian leaders, while simultenously lowering
inter-sectarian competition and tensions.

22. b.Small technical electoral reform
• No matter how contradictory the interests of the different
segments are, there are always small gradual technical
reforms that could be introduced.These reforms would
not face a lot of resistance from sectarian leaders, and
could on the long haul be very beneficial to the system,
increasing its representation, and transparency, while
lowering fraud and state interference in the elections.
• For example, it is worth pushing for pre-printed ballot ,
electronic voters’ register, strengthen the independent
committee that supervise the elections and making it
permanent, and even electronic voting.

23. c.Proportional electoral system
•A delicate balance must be
struck between further
proportionality and
effectiveness. In order to reap
the benefits of both, while
minimizing their negative traits.

24. d.Adaptable and flexible electoral reform
proposals
• Electoral reform must open the door for further changes
down the road, and encourage adaptability and flexibility
in any proposed law, shying away from rigid and closed
proposals, especially in districting and seat allocations. No
matter how representative an electoral system is, if it
cannot adopt and foster change, to deal with evolving
circumstances it would be a failure and would have
negative consequences. It would only ensure stability on
the short term, while postponing and exacerbating the
problem on the medium and long terms.

25. G- Conclusion:
• There is no single remedy to solve Lebanon’s instability
and recurring bouts of civil strife. However, this thesis
highlighted the critical importance of representation and
by consequences the importance of electoral and
structural reforms that strengthen it.
Electoral
reforms
Increase in
representation
Strengthening
Stability

26. • Consequently, gradual changes and small measured steps
are the only way forward in the case of Lebanon, among
the conflicted forest of sectarian and personal interests. It
is not a hopeless cause, it happened before in Lebanon‘s
short history.The 1960 electoral law was at the time a
reform breakthrough, significantly increasing
representation, and even when it was resurrected in 2009,
it offered relief and a lowering of tensions.

27. • One final note, during the research undertook for this
thesis, I was able to observe and study many good ideas
and serious efforts directed at electoral reform and
ameliorating representation. Despite all impediments, and
the ongoing polarization and immobility, the fact that
many electoral reforms were included in the 2009 electoral
law, is a sure indicator that reform and an increase of
representation are possible, and consequently the vision of
a stable, prosperous, and peaceful Lebanese system is
attainable.

28. Thank you
Ibrahim Jouhari