Conflict Indicator

1. The Pattern of Conflict Indicator
Developed by Conflict to Peace International Consulting Ltd (CPIC)

2. • The Pattern of Conflict Indicator is a unique client tool developed by
CPIC’s team of practitioners. It is based on our on-the-ground
experience of conflict in over 30 countries.
• Coupled with our research, these experiences demonstrate that whilst
every conflict is different a consistent pattern runs through them all.
• That pattern illustrates how conflicts follows a series of phases each of
which is influenced by the same factors.
What is the Pattern of Conflict Indicator?

3. The CPIC Pattern of Conflict Indicator enables our clients to:
• Gain an understanding of different phases of conflict.
• Anticipate conflict change and opportunities.
• Mitigate the negative and accelerate the positive in any phase.
• Demonstrate effective leadership.
How can the Pattern of Conflict help those living in
Conflict?

4. The Pattern of Conflict Indicator can help those affected by violence to:
• Become Community and National Leaders for Peace.
• Develop Strategies and Actions that can form the Foundation for Peace.
• Promote a greater understanding of the dynamics that fuel conflict
within their Community and Society.
Why Does the Pattern of Conflict Indicator Matter?

5. Phase 1 Pre-Conflict – long-standing injustices create the dynamic for
conflict.
Phase 2 Conflict – violence becomes the dominant action.
Phase 3 Conflict Transition – conflict fatigue allows new ideas to emerge.
Phase 4 Ceasefire and Pre-Negotiation – citizens and combatants become
aware of an opportunity for peace.
Phase 5 Formal Negotiations and Agreement – key players seek to create
a formal peace agreement.
Phase 6 Post-Agreement – parties begin the implementation of the peace
agreement.
CPIC Six Phases of Conflict

6. The Pattern of Conflict Indicator identifies seven factors that influence
each phase of conflict. Trends and dynamics relating to:
• Politics
• Culture
• Security and Justice
• Evolving Issues of Conflict
• Conflict Goals—competing and complementary
• Economy
• Dominate Actors
CPIC - Seven Factors That Influence Each Phase of Conflict

7. • The influence of each factor evolves and runs through
every phase.
• The key is to anticipate the influence each factor will
have on each phase of the Pattern of Conflict.
Here are some examples.
Linking the Phases and the Factors

8. Phase 1—Pre-Conflict Factor Influence—the Economy
• economic marginalization of some segments of society
• high unemployment levels especially among youth
• low income levels
• economic corruption prevalent
• strong reliance on public funding and services
• impacts of faltering economy on prices and services
• economic uncertainty and instability
• diminishing private and public investment
• limited State capacity to address grievances or provide
security
Pattern of Conflict Indicator--Example #1

9. Phase 3--Conflict Transition Influence Factor--Cultural
• new voices and ideas merge
• conflict fatigue drives the desire for peace
• leaders across society direct greater energy towards the
search for a positive change.
• potential opponents of agreement take stock and remain
quiet.
• across society, war weariness shifts the intransigent war
culture.
• underlying cultures that fuel conflict are challenged or
rejected.
• calls for peace grow.
• previously traditional institutions become supporters of
change.
Pattern of Conflict Indicator--Example #2

10. Phase 5 Formal Negotiations
and Agreement
Influence Factor—Issues of Conflict
• active stakeholder constituent consultations.
• scope of negotiations and tabled positions defined.
• external and internal issue posturing.
• managing expectations among negotiators, constituents
and citizens.
• communication strategy by the various participants to
potentially different target audiences.
• competing issue message boxes by the different
participants.
• potential ratification process; internally within all parties
to Agreement andor constitutional referendum.
• potential election timetable.
Pattern of Conflict Indicator—Example #3

11. Phase 6 Post Agreement Influence Factor--Politics
• new structures of governance take shape. Power-sharing or “unity”
government.
• agreement Implementation; this can be drawn out and difficult as
weaknesses and levels of resistance emerge.
• the true measure of each party to implement agreement is revealed.
• political culture in flux as traditional enemies can find themselves on
the same side or traditional allies on opposing sides.
• further complex and highly political negotiations flow from framework
agreement.
• political culture is reflected across society as families and friends split
over ‘Agreement’.
• some paramilitary leaders make the difficult transition to political
leaders.
• political “winners” and “losers” defined by role in conflict and
Agreement.
Pattern of Conflict Indicator—Example #4

12. If you would like to learn more about the Pattern of
Conflict and how it can help citizens alter the
violence and instability affecting their lives?
Send an enquiry to CPIC at
conflict2peacic@gmail.com or twitter @C2Pic
Want to Learn More?