Presentation by Tom Moerenhout at the second annual Nigerian Tax Research Network meeting which took place in Abuja on 24th and 25th November 2018.

1. Dataset on Nigerian Tax & Subsidy Perceptions
A household and small firm survey
Dr. Tom Moerenhout, 24-25 October 2018
tom.moerenhout@graduateinstitute.ch

2. Presentation structure
1. Rationale for surveys
2. Data collection: population
3. Data collection: sampling
4. Survey design
5. Data availability
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3. 1) Rationale for surveys
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4. Rationale for surveys
• Taxation reform & gasoline subsidy reform impacts households and small firms
• Their perceptions are key to guarantee political feasibility of reform measures
Surveys are key to get a comprehensive vision of their perceptions
 Complemented by focus group discussions (households & small firms) and in-depth interviews
(tax officials)
 Commissioned by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in support of Nigerian Economic Summit
Group
 Conducted by Practical Sampling International: https://www.psi-research.net/
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5. 2) Data collection: Population
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6. 2) Data collection: Population
• Goal 1: Representative results of household perceptions in Nigeria
• Goal 2: Attempt at understanding better the perceptions of small firms in Nigeria (i.e. not micro-
firms and not medium-sized firms)
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7. 3) Data collection: Sampling
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8. 3) Data collection: Sampling - Household
1. Nigerian household survey of 16,000 people (over the age of 18)
1. Primary survey of 10,000 households
2. Oversampling in 6 states, one in each geo-political zone: Ogun, Rivers, Abia, Nasarawa, Kano, Bauchi
• Different levels of GDP per capita
• States that achieve increases in Internally Generated Revenue versus those who did not
• States that receive income from the 13% derivation of oil income vs those who did not
2. Representativeness & sampling criteria:
1. Representative at national level
2. Representative at level of six geo-political zones
3. Urban & Rural
4. 50/50 gender balance
3. Sample biased toward urban population to guarantee experience in paying tax (70/30)
4. Adjusted with weights afterwards
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9. 3) Data collection: Sampling - Household
1. Clustered, stratified, multi-stage random selection procedure
2. Random selection of PSU was conducted by the National Population Commission
3. Total of 1,616 enumeration areas selected, falling within 1,200 localities and 576 LGAs
Method:
1. Random selection of sampling start point
2. Random selection of households
3. Random selection of eligible respondents
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10. 3) Data collection: Sampling - Firm
1. Nigerian small firm survey of 5,000 small firms
2. Very difficult because no available sampling frame
3. Representativeness & sampling criteria:
1. Representative at national level
2. Representative at level of six geo-political zones
3. Requirement of 6-49 employees
• Micro-firms indistinguishable from households
• Medium & large firms very different experience in paying tax
4. Sample biased toward urban population to guarantee experience in paying tax (70/30)
5. Adjusted with weights afterwards
6. Firm surveys conducted at the LGA level (same LGAs as randomly selected for household), and
focused around commercial centers (first listing, then random selection)
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11. 4) Survey design
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12. 4) Survey design
• Household survey includes both perceptions on taxation reform & gasoline subsidy reform
• Firm survey includes only perceptions on taxation reform
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13. 4) Survey design: Tax
HOUSEHOLD
• Household and individual characteristics
• Income, assets and economic expectations
• Experience of paying tax and tax avoidance
• Tax Morale (i.e. beliefs about whether one
should comply with taxes)
• Service delivery and the social contract
• Trust in tax officials and government
• Political support
• Voice and accountability
• Preferences for government expenditure
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FIRM
• Firm characteristics
• Tax Morale (i.e. beliefs about whether one
should comply with taxes)
• Service delivery
• Trust in tax authorities
• Political support
• Liability and actual payment of tax
• Tax refusal, fines, bribes, protection money
• Information, knowledge and avoidance
• Fairness
• Voice & participation
• Major problems overall
• Views on government policies

14. 4) Survey design
• STATA demonstration
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15. 5) Data availability
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16. 5) Data availability
• Early 2019, but before elections
• Data will include sampling weights to ensure representation
• Data will be published on the website of the International Centre for Tax and Development:
http://www.ictd.ac/
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17. Thank you
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