Market perspectives on technology and ageing volker eichener

Volker Eichener / Friederike Külpmann / Viktor Grinewitschus
EBZ Business School – University of Applied Sciences

I-stay@home
The Market Perspective
Home sweet home
London-conference | 31st of January 2013

ISAH-conference | 31st of January 2013 | London - www.i-stay-home.eu

1 Introduction | Elderly people wish to stay
in their homes
How people really want to live in their old age:

Source: comdirect/forsa 2012


1 Introduction | Problems with housing

using the toilet
Toiletten benutzen

sitting down/rising
Setzen/Aufstehen

Bett entering/leaving bed
besteigen/verlassen

moving inside flat
Umhergehen

heating
Heizen

showering/washing
Duschen/Waschen

preparing meals
Mahlzeiten zubereiten

bathing
Baden

climbing stairs
Treppensteigen

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0%

65- bis 79jährige
65 thru 79 80jährige und ältere
80 and older


2 | Request for Information (RFI) | product survey

Online survey of providers of Information
Communication Technology (ICT) solutions that
will aid the elderly and disabled people to live
more independently in their homes

UK
Germany
France
Netherlands
Belgium
and other countries

October 2012 thru January 2013

114 valid responses



Suppliers from 10 countries:

- Austria =2
- Belgium =4
- Finland =1
- France = 27 x
- Germany = 38
- Italy =1
- The Netherlands =8 x x
- Singapore =1
x x
x x
- Switzerland =1 x
- United Kingdom = 30 x
- not specified =1



1 | Excel-sheet -> research catalogue 2 | pdf-overview - > product catalogue
The product catalogue will be provided as an In addition EBZ has been working out a physical
excel-sheet to all the ISAH-partners. In here, the catalogue to give a general overview about the
answers to all questions of the survey can be products. This catalogue will be filled with different
found. So the products can be easily compared to information and photos of the products and
each other. concepts.


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 1_ Telemedicine

Tele-physiotherapy

- System provides
therapeutic treatment
or care to patients at
home

-The patient is put in
a position to conduct
a therapy session on
his own, under
constant supervision
by a therapist via TV
or PC.


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 2_ Daily Life Organisation

Interactive assistant-
and communication-
system

- ICT-platform
-iQuare deals with a
wide variety of
demands, such as
communication, service,
care, organisation and
convenience services,
operates via TV or PC,
offers video-
conferences, calendar,
mailing, etc.


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 3_ Wellness-Aspect

Automated
light system

- system supports the
sleep-wake cycle by
regulating melatonin
using different
intensities and colour
temperatures


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 4_ Special Sensor Technology

Large area sensor
system / fall alert

- people suffering from
dementia are often
suffering from additional
conditions, that pose the
threat of causing them
to hurt themselves or fall

-The floor system can
be easily integrated to
an apartment and
sounds an alarm when a
person falls, provides
activity monitoring and
informs staff members
via call or radio system.


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 5_ Home Automation

Radio based home
automation system

Radio-based highly
encrypted home automation
system to increase

- energy efficiency
-> demand-oriented heating
- comfort
-> automatic control of
lighting
- security
-> motion detectors, window
sensors, smoke detectors


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 6_ Help for limited motor skills

Washbasin lifter

Automatic lifter to get easily
access to the washbasin,
independently.

Modifiable regarding the
Possible increasing care
level.


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 7_ Accessibility

Sanitary and architectural
hardware products

Different products to
provide accessibility in the
private bathroom

-Toilets
-Washbasins
-Shower-equipment


Ex ample
2 | RFIs / categories / 8_ Other...

Biography Work

Personal memories, old
music, old sayings
collected by the person
suffering from dementia or
the family in a book to
browse through.

Use depending on the
actual care level: Book can
either be used by the
person itself or the people
taking care. So they can
help to remember the life.


2 | RFIs / Evaluation concept

Criteria

1. Effectiveness
2. Usabilty
3. Maturity
4. Reliability
5. Cost
6. Economic feasibility
7. Effort-level of installing
8. Ethics / Privacy


2 | RFIs / Evaluation concept

The assessment structure is:

1. Theoretical assessment (based on suppliers experiences)

2. Theoretical assessment (based on housing companies´ experiences)

3. Assessment of test installations at EBZ or in sample houses (eg.
smarthomes)

4. Expert reviews (combined theoretical assessment and product test)

5. User reviews (combined theoretical assessment and product test)


3 | Close-up at “ubiquiet” (France)

Lf1 | Ubiquiet (France)
Connecting box helps elderly people:

- to get in contact with the family
- to take on more tasks / responsibilities
- to participate in senior citizens meeting
- to be informed about cultural and religious activities
- gives accompanying services
- involves Home Care and outpatient nursing service

The Lf1 offers
- a medical information system, personalized health system,
- eHealth and activity check
- simulation of presence and absence
- a reminder system
- heating-, light, temperature- and ventilation control



Connecting box helps elderly people

Possible business models:
a) Purchase by end user
- has to pay the full price at time of purchase
- may use the system for limited time only
- responsible for maintenance
- risk of breakdown
x b) Purchase by housing company
- investment by housing company
- depreciation of purchase price and installation cost
over lifespan
- provision of service (maintenance, social assistance)
- reinstallation if use is terminated
- monthly rent including service and administration fee



Connecting box helps elderly people

Cost calculation, lifespan: 5 years
1. Purchase price = 350,00 €
2. Installation (approx) = 200,00 €
3. Reinstallation (approx) = 200,00 €

Total investment: = 750,00 €
Depreciation p.a. (5 years) = 150,00 €

4. Monthly costs:
- depreciation = 12,50 €
- monthly rate = 30,00 €
- service provider = 30,00 €
- admin fee (15 %) = 10,88 €
Total cost per month: = 83,38 €


4 | Analysis of market perspective and target groups
Methodology:

How to calculate the market size:

1.Number of aged households.
2.Composition of aged households.
3.Income of aged households.
4.Affordability of different product/price levels.
5.Annual expenses multiplied by number of aged households =
maximum market size.
6.Market penetration over time: development of actual market.

The result is an educated guess, based on statistics, estimates and analogies!


Elderly people in words + figures

Total Population + future prospects | EU-wide 2010

Country 2010 2060

Belgium 10.8 M 13.4 M
France 62.8 M 74.0 M
Germany 82.3 M 72.4 M
Netherlands 16.6 M 17.0 M
UK 62.0 M 73.5 M


4 | Analysis of market-perspective and target-groups

Population of elderly people 65+
EU-wide, 2010
Information unit GER F UK NL B ISAH

Total population of elderly people

Total population, 2010 people 82.300.000 62.800.000 62.000.000 16.600.000 10.800.000 234.500.000

ratio population aged 65+ % 23 16 16 15 18

aged 65 - 79 % 21
80+ % 2

Total people aged 65 + people 18.929.000 10.048.000 9.920.000 2.490.000 1.944.000 43.331.000

aged 65 - 79 people 17.283.000
80+ people 1.646.000

ratio women % 57 59 57 57 59
ratio Men % 43 41 43 43 41

Total women aged 65+ women 10.789.530 5.928.320 5.654.400 1.419.300 1.146.960 24.938.510
Total men aged 65+ men 8.139.470 4.119.680 4.265.600 1.070.700 797.040 18.392.490

please exchange dot for comma



Typical household-structure | singles, couples, other
EU-wide | Statistisches Bundesamt, 2009


Household-structure (singles, couples, etc.)

people aged 65+ singles % 34 36 25 36 24,5
people aged 65+ living as a couple % 57 54 62,5 59 57
people aged 65+ // other... % 9 9 12,5 5 18,5

absolute people aged 65+ singles people 6.435.860 3.617.280 2.480.000 896.400 476.280 13.905.820
absolute people aged 65+ living as a couple people 10.789.530 5.425.920 6.200.000 1.469.100 1.108.080 24.992.630
absolute people aged 65+ // other... people 1.703.610 904.320 1.240.000 124.500 359.640 4.332.070




Number of households | couples, women, men

Number of households (M hh = Milion households)

number households of singles M hh 6,4 3,6 2,5 0,9 0,5 13,9
number households couples M hh 5,4 2,7 3,1 0,7 0,6 12,5
number households other (10%) M hh 0,17 0,09 0,12 0,01 0,04 0,43
total number of households M hh 12,0 6,4 5,7 1,6 1,1 26,8

ratio women aged 65 +
singles % 44 32 32 42 32
living as a couple % 50 56 56 49 49
other % 6 12 12 9 19

total women aged 65 +
singles women 4.747.393 1.897.062 1.809.408 596.106 367.027 9.416.997
living as a couple women 5.394.765 3.319.859 3.166.464 695.457 562.010 13.138.556
other % 647.372 711.398 678.528 127.737 217.922 2.382.958

total men aged 65 +
singles % 18 13 18 14 17
as a couple or other % 74 74 69 76 65
other % 8 13 13 10 18

total men aged 65 +
singles men 1.465.105 535.558 767.808 149.898 135.497 3.053.866
living as a couple or other men 6.023.208 3.048.563 2.943.264 813.732 518.076 13.346.843
other men 651.158 535.558 554.528 107.070 143.467 1.991.781



financial situation

Average income of elderly people 65+


Average income of elderly people 65+

women aged 65+ EUR 1.533 1.641 1.380 1.610 1.227 1.478,13
aged 65 - 69 Eur 1.550 + 7 per cent - 10 per cent + 5 per cent - 20 per cent
aged 70 - 79 Eur 1.500
aged 80 + Eur 1.550

men aged 65+ EUR 2.017 2.158 1.815 2.118 1.613 1.944,07
aged 70 - 79 Eur 2.050
aged 80 + Eur 2.300

couples aged 65+ EUR 3.083 3.299 2.775 3.238 2.467 2.972,33
aged 70 - 79 Eur 3.100
aged 80 + Eur 2.950



EBZ-definitions based on statistics

How much can elderly people afford for ICT solutions?

Three levels of technical solutions: public aid
required for 15
low cost, standard, luxury
to 20% of aged
population
Definition of income-groups for I-stay-@-home

average income < 1.000 € = 0 Eur
average income between 1.000-2.000 € = 75 Eur = Low cost
average income between 2.000 - 3.000 = 75 Eur
average income per group (women, men, couples) = 150 Eur = Standard
average income > 4.000 € = 225 Eur = Luxury





Income groups for I-stay-@-home

Couples, ratio
1. Low cost % 45 45 45 45 45
distribution of 2. Standard
3. Luxury
%
%
40
15
40
15
40
15
40
15
40
15

income groups Single women, ratio
1. Low cost % 85 85 85 85 85
2. Standard % 10 10 10 10 10
3. Luxury % 5 5 5 5 5

Single men, ratio
1. Low cost % 65 65 65 65 65
2. Standard % 25 25 25 25 25
3. Luxury % 10 10 10 10 10

Couples, aboslute
1. Low cost M hh 2,4 1,2 1,4 0,3 0,2
2. Standard M hh 2,2 1,1 1,2 0,3 0,2
3. Luxury M hh 0,8 0,4 0,5 0,1 0,1

Single women, absolute
1. Low cost M hh 4,0 1,6 1,5 0,5 0,3
2. Standard M hh 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,0
3. Luxury M hh 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0

Single men, absolute
1. Low cost M hh 0,95 0,35 0,50 0,10 0,09
2. Standard M hh 0,37 0,13 0,19 0,04 0,03
3. Luxury M hh 0,15 0,05 0,08 0,01 0,01




Annual expenses multiplied by number of households in € = maximum
market perspective for I-Stay@home: 33 millard € p.a. in five countries


Number of households regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion households)

Low cost M hh 7,42 3,18 3,43 0,93 0,65 15,61
Standard M hh 3,00 1,41 1,61 0,39 0,29 6,70
Luxury M hh 1,19 0,56 0,63 0,15 0,12 2,65
total absolute M hh 11,61 5,15 5,68 1,48 1,06 24,97


Total sum in € regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion Euro)

Low cost M Eur 6.674 2.863 3.089 841 584 14.052
Standard M Eur 5.398 2.536 2.903 704 526 12.067
Luxury M Eur 3.221 1.499 1.707 418 311 7.157
total absolute M Eur 15.293 6.899 7.699 1.963 1.421 33.275



Conclusion

Problem: Not every aged household will
purchase an ICT solution immediately!

So we compared the market for
ICT solutions to the market of mobile phones
from 1992 - 2007!


4 | Market penetration

Empirical market penetration of mobile Hypothetical market penetration of I-
phones (starting from 1992) stay@home technologies (starting from 2015)

half speed =
conservative
estimate


Conclusion

Comparison mobile phones to ICT solutions: educa
ted gu
ess
from 200 million to 16 millard € per year in five countries
Total sum in € regarding the income-groups for I-stay-@-home (Milion Euro) 33,3 MRD €

Year usage mobile phone usage of mobile phone year of usage ICT-solution estimated usage of ICT-solution estimated € unit

1992 1,2% 2015 0,6% 0,20 MRD €
1993 2,2% 2016 1,1% 0,37 MRD €
1994 3,0% 2017 1,5% 0,50 MRD €
1995 4,6% 2018 2,3% 0,77 MRD €
1996 6,8% 2019 3,4% 1,13 MRD €
1997 10,1% 2020 5,1% 1,68 MRD €
1998 17,0% 2021 8,5% 2,83 MRD €
1999 23,5% 2022 11,7% 3,91 MRD €
2000 48,2% 2023 24,1% 8,03 MRD €
2001 56,1% 2024 28,1% 9,35 MRD €
2002 59,1% 2025 29,6% 9,85 MRD €
2003 64,8% 2026 32,4% 10,79 MRD €
2004 71,3% 2027 35,7% 11,87 MRD €
2005 79,3% 2028 39,7% 13,20 MRD €
2006 85,6% 2029 42,8% 14,25 MRD €
2007 97,1% 2030 48,6% 16,17 MRD €



What has to be done?

Current status of technology:
-integration into an ICT
-stand-alone solutions (single gadgets) platform is badly required
-limited functionality
-complicated purchase/installation/ -degression of costs by
maintenance economies of scales
-poor value for money
-inadequate business models (e.g. -business models by housing
purchase by end user) companies


I-stay@home... is going on!

home sweet home
home smart home

contact: v.eichener@ebz-bs.de www.ebz-business-school.de


Market perspectives on technology and ageing volker eichener

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