Latest insights for the Upper Hunter economy and broader macroeconomic insights

1. UPPER HUNTER
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
Presented by Dr Anthea Bill
Hunter Research Foundation Centre
11 September 2019

2. PRESENTATION
OUTLINE
• National context: growth slows
• Upper Hunter: mixed results

3. GDPGROWTH:ECONOMYSLOWS

4. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Source: IMF, 2019.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real GDP Growth (year on year %)
Advanced Economies
Australia
Emerging Markets

5. SUMMARY
MACRO TRENDS
International -
growth slows
Household sector -
spending subdued
over longer-term
Coal -
prices trend
lower in 2019

6. UPPER HUNTER
ECONOMY
Mixed results

7. Mining
CAPEX
Investment
Source: ABS Labour Force Statistics; HRF Centre
3-month Moving Average
EMPLOYMENT: JOB GROWTH
Hunter Balance
includes:
Port Stephens
Cessnock
Maitland
Muswellbrook
Dungog
Singleton
Upper Hunter

8. Mining
CAPEX
Investment
Source: Department of Employment, SALM.
4-Quarter Moving Average.
UNEMPLOYMENT: BELOW HUNTER

9. Source: APM Pricefinder
HOUSING: PRICES FALL

10. Source: ABS, Building Approvals, Australia.
RESIDENTIAL PIPELINE GROWING

11. PULSE SURVEYS
Phone
surveys
300
Households
300
Businesses

12. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Business Pulse.
*Business Performance figure has been interpolated for June 2015.
BUSINESS: GROWTH SLOWS

13. -0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
Jun-11 Dec-12 Jun-14 Dec-15 Jun-17 Dec-18
Hunter
Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Business Pulse
* Figure has been interpolated for June 2015.
HUNTER vs UPPER HUNTER
Upper Hunter
Business Performance last 3 months

14. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Business Pulse.
*Business Performance figure has been interpolated for June 2015.
WOMEN IN BUSINESS

15. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Business Pulse December 2018 & June 2019.
WOMEN IN BUSINESS
STRONG PERFORMANCE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Profitability
good/very good
Trading performance
good/very good
Employees
increasing
Exporting
% Female Business Operators
% Male Business Operators

16. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Household Pulse Surveys
HOUSEHOLDS: SPENDING FALLS

17. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Household Pulse Surveys
HUNTER vs UPPER HUNTER
Consumer spending last 3 months
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
JUN 01 JUN 04 JUN 07 JUN 10 JUN 13 JUN 16 JUN 19
Hunter
Upper HunterGFC

18. Source: HRF Centre, Upper Hunter Business
and Household Pulse Surveys
REGIONAL OUTLOOK:
EXPECTATIONS DECLINE

19. SUMMARY
• Low unemployment rates
holding steady
• Job growth
• Housing pipeline and rental market
• Business confidence
• Consumer spending
• House prices
(Singleton & Muswellbrook)
• Business performance
• Confidence in the regional economy

20. THANK YOU
HRF Centre’s latest
Upper Hunter Economic Indicators
available as you leave