- The Greek equity market has turned positive in recent months led by strong performance from non-financial stocks, though it still lags other European markets year-to-date.
- Two top picks, Motor Oil and OPAP, have outperformed the market since the previous report. Valuation of the non-bank universe implies an upside potential of 5.9%.
- Key events in the coming months include results of the asset quality review and stress tests of Greek banks in October/November as well as the recapitalization process.
3. 3
Key Investment Considerations
We reiterate our Top Pick list, which includes OPAP and Motor Oil. These two stocks have outperformed the market since our last strategy
report of early-September. MOH enjoys a favorable benchmark margin environment, as well as favorable FX dynamics. MOH’s possible
inflow from the revision of the MSCI index could also boost further the stock. OPAP should witness the successful launch of VLTs sometime
in 2016, which will further diversify OPAP’s gaming portfolio.
Apart from Motor Oil and OPAP, we have Outperform ratings on Aegean Airlines, Frigoglass, FFGROUP, Jumbo, Fourlis and Athex.
We trim our target price on Jumbo to EUR 9.80 from EUR 10.0 and reiterate Outperform rating.
We downgrade CCHBC to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. We think current price levels imply stretched valuation
metrics. Recent sugar price spikes should inflate the cost base in the mid term, while we are cautious on the recovery of EE markets and
particularly Russia. We would therefore sell the stock at current price levels.
The valuation of our non-banks universe implies an upside potential of 5.9% from 14.5% previously. We think that the market will need
the contribution of the banking sector in order to move meaningfully higher.
Upside risks to our valuation include a) further decline of GGB rates as a result of positive programme review (within November), political
stability and debt relief measures; b) better than currently anticipated economy dynamics with key catalyst being the privatization programme
(i.e. regional airports, ports, Hellinikon and energy market) and efficient absorption of EU funds; and c) successful conclusion of banks’ recap
accompanied by the formulation of an effective legal framework for the management of NPLs.
In the banking space, the pressure continued unabated in the last month, putting pressure in the wider market. The banking index plunged
by 22.1% from September 10, when we released our latest strategy report, until October 14. In terms of newsflow, the management teams
of the four systemic banks met with ECB/SSM in Frankfurt on October 14-15 in order to receive preliminary and partial data on the
comprehensive assessment exercise. The regulatory framework that will detail the recap terms is expected to be submitted to Parliament by
October 20. The final recap amount should have been formulated by October 20 and the official announcement is expected on October 31-
November 1. In the context of the recapitalization project, Piraeus Bank announced LME on its junior and senior debt, while other banks are
expected to follow. The capital increases should start in November and be concluded prior to end-2015.
4. 4
4Q 2015 milestones that could affect Greek assets
31 Oct./1 Nov.:AQR and
Stresstestresultsare
expectedtobe officially
released
Mid-October:Expected
start of 1st Reviewof
3rd bailoutprogramme
9 November:Eurogroup
23 November:Eurogroup
20 October:regulatoryframeworkof
bank'srecaps to be submittedto
Parliament
13 November:Fitch
sovereignrating
assessment 20 November:Moody's
sovereignratingassessment
8 December:
Eurogroup
23 December:
Eurogroup
End-December:
conclusionofbankrecaps
4Q 2015 timetable of events
15 November:Deadline
for the release of
additional EUR15bn
recap funds
November-December:
Recapitalization
processunderway
Greek Sovereign/Corporate Events | 4Q 2015
29 October Railway bond due EUR 174mn
31 October Banks: Deadline for the release of 1H 2015 results
1-30 November Q3 reporting season
1 November PPC (PPC GA)bond coupon payment
6 November T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.4bn
10 November Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE GA) bond coupon payment
13 November T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.4bn
15 November Frigoglass (FRIGO GA), Intralot (INLOT GA) &
Motor Oil (MOH GA)bond coupon payments
16 November Coca Cola HBC (CCH LN) bond coupon payment
7 December IMF loan due EUR 279mn
11 December T-Bills redemption; EUR 2.0bn
16 December IMF loan due EUR 509mn
18 December T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.6bn
21 December IMF loan due EUR 313mn
5. 5
ATHEX moved into positive territory
since our last strategy report on the
back of strong performance by non
financials, which have massively
outperformed banks. On a y-t-d basis
the Greek equity market remains an
underperformer compared to its
European peers.
ATHEX turns positive Month-on-Month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Greek large caps vs Greek banks 2015 y-t-d (indexed)
Greek Large caps (ex-banks) Greek Banks
ATHEX reopens
Capital controls
ATHEX ceases trading
Elections
4.6% 4.7%
1.9% 1.7%
-1.2%
0.8%
2.2%
4.6%
-3.0%-5.00%
-3.00%
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
11.00%
13.00%
15.00%
Greece
ATHEX
Composite
MSCI EM
(Emerging
Markets)
France
CAC 40
FTSE MIB Germany
DAX (TR)
STOXX
Europe
600
Spain IBEX
35
Portugal
PSI 20
Ireland
ISEQ
General
ATHEX vs peers October/September 2015
-18.16%
-6.02%
7.87%
14.87%
1.12%
3.87%
-2.35%
10.18%
18.84%
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Greece
ATHEX
Composite
MSCI EM
(Emerging
Markets)
France
CAC 40
FTSE MIB Germany
DAX (TR)
STOXX
Europe
600
Spain IBEX
35
Portugal
PSI 20
Ireland
ISEQ
General
ATHEX vs peers y-t-d
6. 6
…still though lagging GGBs
Greek sovereign debt has outperformed the equity market since the restart of the
ATHEX in early August. 10Y GGB currently trades at 7.8%, a level last printed in December
last year, when Greek equities were trading 20-52% higher. Note that GGBs were trading at
a YTM of 11.7% in early August and slightly above 8% at the time of the elections. The
Greek equity market on the other hand is trading close to 3Y lows.
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
550
570
590
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
ATHEX GI vs 10Y GGB Yield since the restart of the
Greek Equity Market
ATHEX GI - Left axis 10Y GGB yield - Right axis
Elections
7. 7
Breaking the link between debt and equity
It is the first time in the last 5 years
that a compression in yields is not
combined with a rise in the Greek
equity market. The reason is the
plunge in banking valuation in the
wake of the capital controls and the
forthcoming recapitalizations.
GGB & ATHEX swings | start 2008-now
time length (months)
GGB yield
change ATHEX GI performance
ATHEX ex-banks performace -
average per month
spot P/E total
market ex banks
4 26.7% -14.8% -17.3% 13.2
4 -13.0% -29.4% -37.1% 9.8
3 34.1% -37.0% -9.2% 6.9
12 -9.8% 32.1% 9.5% 9.8
26 490.0% -65.9% -53.2% 7.2
30 -83.3% 60.0% 72.7% 20.7
8 93.5% -33.3% -22.1% 11.8
2 -28.7% -14.8% -0.4% 14.7
8. 8
Top down, the Greek market does not seem to be attractive
5 10 15 20 25 30
US
Japan
Developed Markets
Australia
Asia ex Japan
Europe ex UK
EM
UK
Emerging Europe
Greece
Schiller P/E: Greek market vs peers*
01020304050
US
Japan
Developed Markets
Australia
Asia ex Japan
Europe ex UK
EM
UK
CEEMEA
Greece
Median Historical Schiller P/E: Greek market vs peers*
*Greek Schiller P/E does not include financials
9. 9
Our non financial universe has
derated substantially in 2015
and especially over the
summer. Right now 12M fwd
P/E stands c11% below the
end-2014 print, which means
that the market has already
incorporated some EPS
downgrades.
Much better picture for our non-financials universe #1
0
5
10
15
20
25
1/31/2000
7/31/2000
1/31/2001
7/31/2001
1/31/2002
7/31/2002
1/31/2003
7/31/2003
1/30/2004
7/30/2004
1/31/2005
7/29/2005
1/31/2006
7/31/2006
1/31/2007
7/31/2007
1/31/2008
7/31/2008
1/30/2009
7/31/2009
1/29/2010
7/30/2010
1/31/2011
7/29/2011
1/31/2012
7/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2013
1/31/2014
7/31/2014
1/30/2015
7/31/2015
12m Fwd P/E- PS non financials universe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2/29/2000
8/31/2000
2/28/2001
8/31/2001
2/28/2002
8/30/2002
2/28/2003
8/29/2003
2/27/2004
8/31/2004
2/28/2005
8/31/2005
2/28/2006
8/31/2006
2/28/2007
8/31/2007
2/29/2008
8/29/2008
2/27/2009
8/31/2009
2/26/2010
8/31/2010
2/28/2011
8/31/2011
2/29/2012
8/31/2012
2/28/2013
8/30/2013
2/28/2014
8/29/2014
2/27/2015
8/31/2015
12M Fwd EV/EBITDA-PS non financials universe
10. 10
Both Schiller P/E and Earnings
Yield/Bond Yield for our non-
banks Universe present a much
better picture compared to the
broader Greek market. Both have
de-rated since Q3 last year until
this summer, while they are now
reverting to their mean.
Much better picture for our non-financials universe #2
* Piraeus Bank’s proprietary corporate bond index includes 15 issues from CCHBC, OTE, Hellenic Petroleum, Intralot, Frigoglass, PPC, Titan, Motor Oil.
11. 11
Our Non-Banks Universe has outperformed MoM
Our two top picks, Motor Oil and Opap
are up 14.3% and 15% respectively since
our last strategy report. FFGROUP is the
outlier here, having a negative
performance over the same period due to
concerns about the Chinese economic
dynamics.
12. 12
Piraeus Securities Universe valuation (non-financials)
current price (COB
15-Oct-2015) Market cap. PT
number of
shares
Target Market
cap.
Total
Expected
return
Aegean 7.25 517.8 7.80 71.4 557.1 13.2%
ATHEX 5.18 338.6 5.70 65.4 372.6 18.7%
Autohellas 10.55 128.3 10.00 12.2 121.6 1.4%
CCHBC 20.70 7,613.5 17.00 367.8 6,252.6 -16.0%
Frigoglass 2.23 112.8 3.00 50.6 151.8 34.5%
Fourlis 2.80 142.8 4.30 51.0 219.3 53.6%
FFGROUP 18.02 1,206.4 28.70 66.9 1,921.4 60.1%
Jumbo 8.27 1,125.2 9.80 136.1 1,333.4 21.0%
Motor Oil 10.30 1,141.1 12.00 110.8 1,329.4 25.7%
OTE 8.85 4,337.8 9.00 490.2 4,411.4 2.6%
OPAP 8.43 2,689.2 10.80 319.0 3,445.2 38.2%
PPC 5.17 1,199.4 4.00 232.0 928.0 -18.2%
Total (including dividend) 20,552.8 21,758.2 5.9%
Source: Piraeus Securities, Greek Equity Research
The total upside of our universe has been trimmed to 5.9%. We highlight two stocks that stand well above our current target prices.
We think CCHBC (CCH LN) trades at stretched valuation metrics. Current price levels are not supported by fundamentals in our view,
while we do not see positive developments in key markets like Russia or Italy that warrant a significant pick up in profitability.
Moreover, the outlook for sugar is also negative. In this context we downgrade CCHBC to Underperform from Neutral.
On the other hand, PPC (PPC GA) is a binary investment case in our view. We think that should the measures stipulated by the MoU
regarding the liberalization of the electricity market are implemented, PPC will be able to crystalize some of its hidden value. However
given there are many uncertainties we prefer to remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Our Non-Banks Universe offers an upside of 5.9%
13. 13
Universe | PT and recommendation changes
We made some fine-tuning in our estimates in
Jumbo (BELA GA) due to slightly worse outlook
in the Greek operations. We therefore trimmed
out valuation on the stock to EUR 9.80 from
EUR 10.0 previously. We remain Buyers on the
stock.
From our Outperform list, we would also
highlight Frigoglass (FRIGO GA) as our best bet
to beat the market and our universe in the
following weeks. The group is about to complete
the sale of the glass business in Q4 and receive
USD 200mn. This is of course an opportunistic
call and dependent on the positive outcome of
the sale, hence we refrain from giving the stock a
top pick status.
On Folli Follie (FFGRP GA) and despite the
weakness y-t-d due to the Chinese softness, we
could see a strong rebound in the case of
positive newsflow on Chinese macros.
Piraeus Securities | Universe; changes in ratings and PTs
Target Price
Old Target
Price Rating
Previous
Rating
Aegean 7.80 7.80 Outperform Outperform
Autohellas 10.00 10.00 Neutral Neutral
Coca Cola HLB AG 17.00 17.00 Underperform Neutral
Folli Follie Group 28.70 28.70 Outperform Outperform
Fourlis 4.30 4.30 Outperform Outperform
Frigoglass 3.00 3.00 Outperform Outperform
Hellenic Exchanges 5.70 5.70 Outperform Outperform
Jumbo 9.80 10.00 Outperform Outperform
Motor Oil* 12.00 12.00 Outperform Outperform
OPAP* 10.80 10.80 Outperform Outperform
OTE 9.00 9.00 Neutral Neutral
PPC 4.00 4.00 Neutral Neutral
Metka U/R U/R U/R U/R
NBG U/R U/R U/R U/R
Alpha Bank U/R U/R U/R U/R
Eurobank U/R U/R U/R U/R
Titan U/R U/R U/R U/R
Sarantis U/R U/R U/R U/R
* top picks
14. 14
We lie below 2015 and 2016 consensus
We stand 6.8% and 1.9% below 2015
and 2016 consensus respectively
although we see downside risks in
2016 estimates.
18. 18
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Piraeus Securities S.A. is the brokerage division of Piraeus Bank (‘The Firm’), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Piraeus Securities S.A. certifies that the current organizational and administrative structure is proof of conflicts of interest and dissemination of any kind of information between the departments and also certifies that it does not relate to any kind of interest or conflict of interest
with a) any other legal entity or person that might participate in the preparation of this research report and b) with any other legal entity or person that might not participate in the preparation of this research report but had access to the research report before its publication.
Piraeus Securities seeks to update covered companies on a quarterly basis or else on any material upcoming events.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The analyst identified in this report certifies that his/her views about the company/ies and securities analysed in this report a) accurately reflect his/her personal views and b) do not directly or indirectly relate to any kind of compensation in exchange for
specific recommendations or views.
Coverage Universe
Piraeus Securities Research Stock
Ratings
Weighted on
Mcap
Un-weighted Rating Definitions
Investment Banking Activities within
12-month period
Outperform : 34.2% 42.1%
Total return (*) expected to be greater than 10% compared to the
market’s return (**) over a 12-month period
-
Neutral: 54.6% 15.8%
Total return (*) expected to be between -10%/+10% compared to the
market’s return (**) over a 12-month period
-
Underperform: 0.0% 5.3%
Total return (*) expected to be below -10% compared to the market’s
return (**)over a 12-month period
-
Restricted: 0.4% 5.3%
In certain circumstances that Piraeus Securities S.A. policy or applicable
law / regulations preclude certain types of communication and
investment recommendations
-
Under Review: 10.9% 31.6% Rating/TP may be subject to future revision -
(*) Total return = Price appreciation + Dividend
(**) Market return = Risk free rate + 5% (an approximation of equity risk premium)
Investment ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in rating, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected total returns may fall outside of these ranges because of
price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review by Research Management.
CAUTION - DISCLAIMER
This document has been issued by Piraeus Securities S.A. (“The Firm”), a member of the Athens Exchange supervised by the Hellenic Capital Market Committee.
Piraeus Securities has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable, but it has not independently verified all the information presented in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or otherwise implied,
is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document, or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Expressions of opinion herein are those of the Research Department only, reflect our judgment
at this date and are subject to change without notice.
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RESEARCH SALES/ TRADING
Natasha Roumantzi
George Doukas
Iakovos Kourtesis
nroumantzi@piraeus-sec.gr
gdoukas@piraeus-sec.gr
kourtesis@piraeus-sec.gr
+30 210 3354065
+30 210 3354093
+30 210 3354083
Constantinos Xenos
Dimitris Dardanis
Yorgi Papazisis
Alexandros Malamas
xenosc@piraeus-sec.gr
dardanisdi@piraeus-sec.gr
PapazisisG@piraeus-sec.gr
malamasa@piraeus-sec.gr
+30 210 3354087
+30 210 3354043
+30 210 3354063
+30 210 3354041