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, ь
2
Ь
Дже ело: http:// .ukrstat.go .ua/
ь 39% є
ь
( )
ь
ь
PDI (Port
Dependence Index)
42% ь
є , 90%
є ь
3
%
11%
15%
54%
42%
10%
ь ь ь
ь
91%
2% 7%
ь
39%
61%
ь ь ь- ь
- ь
ь
ь
ь
ь
ь
ь
Є
ь
ь
ь ь
:
▪ : ( «SOE») - , ;
( “ ") - , , , ,
,
▪ . 13.5-18.5 m
▪ : Capesize, Panamax
▪ 2016 – 39,2 . .
:
▪ : SOE - є ;
- , , ,
▪ . : 13.5m
▪ : Panamax
▪ 2016 -25,3 . .
Chornomorsk:
▪ : SOE - , , ;
- , ,
▪ . : 13.5m
▪ : Panamax
▪ 2016 – 15,9 . .
ь ь
ь :
▪ : SOE - є ;
- , ,
▪ . : 9.0-12.5m
▪ : Panamax
▪ 2016 – 22,4 . .
ь :
▪ : SOE - , ;
- , ,
▪ . : 12.5m
▪ : Handymax
▪ 2016 – 6,5 . .
ь ь ь
ь:
▪ : SOE - , ;
- ,
▪ . : 8.5-9.8m
▪ : Handymax
▪ 2016 -7,6 . .
О ов і по ти
алі по ти
к и ькі по ти
о ьке о е
Чо е о еь ь :
▪ : SOe - , ;
-
▪ . : 4.0m
▪ : Handy 4
Ь
ь , ь
ь ь ( 1/5), ь
ь ь
:
- ( ь
)
-
- - (IRR)
-
5
,
● ь ь ь ь 12.0% (9.4 )
42,0% ь ь 2016 є
● ь ь $4 ,
ь , ь ,
ь
Д е ело: М те т о о пол т к п одо оль т Ук
2011-20 . ь , .
фа т ч г
6
29.1
26.4
32.9
37.50
40.40
44.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
30.2
28.3
36.0
40.5
43.4 44.3
49.6
55.6
62.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ь Є
● 2016 13% ь
, 50% 2004 .
● ь є ,
ь
● -
, ь 1/3 ь
2010 -2016 ( )
/ ь
Capesize
16400 DW
Panamax
73000 DW
Handy
26000 DW
Minibulk
10400 DW
DW 5300
ь
- - - 14 987 10 954
- 73 994 32 809 14 987 9 230
- - - 19 500 10 490
- - - 14 000 8 570
116 412 65 800 27 500 15 170 8 223
ь - 58 768 25 813 8 172 5 962
- 79 850 25 954 11 972 7 351
ь - 130 477 56 000 21 620 12 647
- - 63 500 22 900 13 334
430 858 230 500 94 630 36 307 17 860
50,744
67,594 67,780
62,306
53,902
38,127 36,363
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7
ь
• ь
ь
ь
•
(34% ),
(85%
)
•
ь
ь
• ,
ь ь
•
ь
• ь
•
( 2-3
, –
)
ь ь
• ь
ь 'є
ь
, ь
, ь
ь
•
ь
8
???
.......
• ль 64% по то о
дуть до де о о д ету
ЦІЛЬ .........
• о т ть т т д у о еко о к
Ук - еко е о ,
у до од к дуть о ток по то о
т укту
9
Ь
?
,
ь
. ь
, ь
, є
ь
10
Є Ь ?
EBITDA ( ) ( )
% ь ь %
200,000
200,000
250,000 280,000
280000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Capital investment (ths USD) Required investments
39%
64%
2015 2016
* В ріш і – 2015 рі
* З в іш є – 2016 рі
16%
8%
4%
2%
3%
5%
32%
18%
5%
3%
3%
3%
є ’є
є
, є
,
Є
ь ’
ь 11
234.07
336.70
311.78
285.61
46%
60%
74%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue EBITDA Margin
2017 – 75%?
д ко у по о о
о т …..
Є
….. до д у
еко о ч о о о ту
12
Ь
:
•
•
• ь
I.
II.
III. :

 ь

IV. 2038
( - 1 )
13
:
,
ґ
ь
14
: Ь
,
ь
« ь
», GRT
, ь
3-5 ,
ь
є ,
ь
15
л е К те ь е ь Че Л пе ь е е о Л у
ко оче пл т д де д М
т д ту п о у о д ько д
д ото к те л
У ле те л к ле то о о де о л д
о о к о о т о етодоло дл по т
О о о о уп лу е п ед т к М т укту , EBA, ACC, М У, М , М о т ,
од о о , ек пе т
л д д дл о о одел М
З д
Докл д пото о т т по п д о д л
т о е до о ьо к т пл у е о М У п д о д л
о о у поте опе т т М У о о пл у е о
о о у поте к п т ль т т М У
о о у ль т т М У
о о у поте т опоток п пу е 3 е
О к те е у МФІ е то до поте е т п оект М У т поте т ок у
т укту
о о к о о одел т д ету
о у ок т т ок о о т т
о ль л т т ок ук ьк по т о о ко ку е т
л еко о е ульт т д т т пл де д ет
еко е д т т ок о о т т, е у до у е ульт т по ль о о л у
ле к ле то о
У ле дпо д те т К ето М т
16

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Розвиток портів

  • 1.
  • 3. Ь Дже ело: http:// .ukrstat.go .ua/ ь 39% є ь ( ) ь ь PDI (Port Dependence Index) 42% ь є , 90% є ь 3 % 11% 15% 54% 42% 10% ь ь ь ь 91% 2% 7% ь 39% 61%
  • 4. ь ь ь- ь - ь ь ь ь ь ь ь Є ь ь ь ь : ▪ : ( «SOE») - , ; ( “ ") - , , , , , ▪ . 13.5-18.5 m ▪ : Capesize, Panamax ▪ 2016 – 39,2 . . : ▪ : SOE - є ; - , , , ▪ . : 13.5m ▪ : Panamax ▪ 2016 -25,3 . . Chornomorsk: ▪ : SOE - , , ; - , , ▪ . : 13.5m ▪ : Panamax ▪ 2016 – 15,9 . . ь ь ь : ▪ : SOE - є ; - , , ▪ . : 9.0-12.5m ▪ : Panamax ▪ 2016 – 22,4 . . ь : ▪ : SOE - , ; - , , ▪ . : 12.5m ▪ : Handymax ▪ 2016 – 6,5 . . ь ь ь ь: ▪ : SOE - , ; - , ▪ . : 8.5-9.8m ▪ : Handymax ▪ 2016 -7,6 . . О ов і по ти алі по ти к и ькі по ти о ьке о е Чо е о еь ь : ▪ : SOe - , ; - ▪ . : 4.0m ▪ : Handy 4
  • 5. Ь ь , ь ь ь ( 1/5), ь ь ь : - ( ь ) - - - (IRR) - 5
  • 6. , ● ь ь ь ь 12.0% (9.4 ) 42,0% ь ь 2016 є ● ь ь $4 , ь , ь , ь Д е ело: М те т о о пол т к п одо оль т Ук 2011-20 . ь , . фа т ч г 6 29.1 26.4 32.9 37.50 40.40 44.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 30.2 28.3 36.0 40.5 43.4 44.3 49.6 55.6 62.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 7. Ь Є ● 2016 13% ь , 50% 2004 . ● ь є , ь ● - , ь 1/3 ь 2010 -2016 ( ) / ь Capesize 16400 DW Panamax 73000 DW Handy 26000 DW Minibulk 10400 DW DW 5300 ь - - - 14 987 10 954 - 73 994 32 809 14 987 9 230 - - - 19 500 10 490 - - - 14 000 8 570 116 412 65 800 27 500 15 170 8 223 ь - 58 768 25 813 8 172 5 962 - 79 850 25 954 11 972 7 351 ь - 130 477 56 000 21 620 12 647 - - 63 500 22 900 13 334 430 858 230 500 94 630 36 307 17 860 50,744 67,594 67,780 62,306 53,902 38,127 36,363 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7
  • 8. ь • ь ь ь • (34% ), (85% ) • ь ь • , ь ь • ь • ь • ( 2-3 , – ) ь ь • ь ь 'є ь , ь , ь ь • ь 8
  • 9. ??? ....... • ль 64% по то о дуть до де о о д ету ЦІЛЬ ......... • о т ть т т д у о еко о к Ук - еко е о , у до од к дуть о ток по то о т укту 9
  • 11. Є Ь ? EBITDA ( ) ( ) % ь ь % 200,000 200,000 250,000 280,000 280000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Capital investment (ths USD) Required investments 39% 64% 2015 2016 * В ріш і – 2015 рі * З в іш є – 2016 рі 16% 8% 4% 2% 3% 5% 32% 18% 5% 3% 3% 3% є ’є є , є , Є ь ’ ь 11 234.07 336.70 311.78 285.61 46% 60% 74% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue EBITDA Margin 2017 – 75%?
  • 12. д ко у по о о о т ….. Є ….. до д у еко о ч о о о ту 12
  • 13. Ь : • • • ь I. II. III. :   ь  IV. 2038 ( - 1 ) 13
  • 15. : Ь , ь « ь », GRT , ь 3-5 , ь є , ь 15
  • 16. л е К те ь е ь Че Л пе ь е е о Л у ко оче пл т д де д М т д ту п о у о д ько д д ото к те л У ле те л к ле то о о де о л д о о к о о т о етодоло дл по т О о о о уп лу е п ед т к М т укту , EBA, ACC, М У, М , М о т , од о о , ек пе т л д д дл о о одел М З д Докл д пото о т т по п д о д л т о е до о ьо к т пл у е о М У п д о д л о о у поте опе т т М У о о пл у е о о о у поте к п т ль т т М У о о у ль т т М У о о у поте т опоток п пу е 3 е О к те е у МФІ е то до поте е т п оект М У т поте т ок у т укту о о к о о одел т д ету о у ок т т ок о о т т о ль л т т ок ук ьк по т о о ко ку е т л еко о е ульт т д т т пл де д ет еко е д т т ок о о т т, е у до у е ульт т по ль о о л у ле к ле то о У ле дпо д те т К ето М т 16