This document discusses frameworks for identifying target markets for food exports. It introduces the MAPEA framework, which stands for "Mercados-Alvo Para Exportação de Alimentos" in Portuguese. The MAPEA framework analyzes 10 factors to evaluate emerging countries as potential food importers over the next 10 years. These factors include characteristics like population size and growth, income generation, valued resources, and consumer behavior. Indicators are developed to measure each factor and assign grades to 10 emerging countries. China is highlighted as a top potential market due to its large population and strong economic growth. The framework is intended to help develop public and private strategies for entering new export markets.

1. Mercados-Alvo Para
Exportação de Alimentos
Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava Neves
Faculdade de Administraçao (FEA/RP) – Universidade de São Paulo, desde 1995
Escola de Administração de Empresas (EAESP/FGV), desde 2018
Center for Agricultural Business - Purdue University (Indiana/USA), desde 2013
PAA – FAUBA – Universidade de Buenos Aires, desde 2006
Criador da Markestrat (www.markestrat.com.br) em 2004
Especialista em planejamento estratégico no agronegócio
www.doutoragro.com

2. Food Security
“the state of being without reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, nutritious food” FAO
2
Yield Gap
Sustainability
Demand for Food

3. Global Population Distribution
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

5. Global Population Annual Rates Growth
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

6. Ranking of the Most Populous Countries and Projections
(Numbers in Parentheses Refer to Total Population in Millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

7. Annual Per Capita GDP Growth (2019-2028)
Note: SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC is Latin America and Caribbean; CAC is Central America and Caribbean.
Fonte: OECD/FAO (2019), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD
Agriculture statistics (database)

8. Urban x Rural Population in the World
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2018a). World Urbanization Prospects 2018.

9. 9
What’s on the World’s Menu?
Daily Calories per Person by Type of Food
Fonte: FAO (2018)

10. How to put all these in a
model?

11. MAPEA – Mercados-Alvo Para Exportação de Alimentos
Mercados de
Alimentos em
Expansão
têm...
Populações
LYGU
Geração de
Renda
Distribuição de
Renda
Recursos
Valiosos para
Exportação
Falta de
Recursos
Produtivos
Regulação
Favorável
Incentivos aos
Biocombustíveis
Canais de
Distribuição e
Logística
Moeda Local
Valorizada
Comportamento
do Consumidor

12. Who are the MAPEA?

13. CHINA
✓ Population: 1.43 trillion (1st globally in 2019)
✓ Annual rate of population change: +0.4% (2019)
✓ GDP: US$13.61 billion (2nd globally in 2018)
✓ GDP per capita: US$ 9,580.2 (70th globally in 2018)
GDP Evolution
13.61 trillion
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2019). The Word Bank (2019).
1.21 trillion

14. China as the Center of the World...
GDP Evolution by Country 1960-2017
Number of Companies in Global Fortune 500 by
Country
Source: McKinsey The Global Economy:
Navigating a World of Disruption

15. China Developement...

16. Urban Population x Rural Population in China
Source: McKinsey The Global Economy:
Navigating a World of Disruption

17. China's GDP Growth
Gradual Adjustment to Sustainable Level…
Source: Charles Tang Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry

19. Shanghai

20. Chinese consumption continues to grow (kg/capita), more gradual and in a sustainable rhythm fueled by
swine fever…
Source: OECD, FAO
Meat Consumption in China
Source: Charles Tang Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry

21. “The Food Bridge Concept”
✓ Lacks investment capacity and logistics.
✓ Can rapidly expand food production.
✓ Has several possibilities for international investments.
✓ Has low population/land availability ratio, and around
100 million hectares available for development.
✓ It’s the world’s largest exporter of beef, poultry,
soybeans, juices, sugar, biofuels, coffee and in 5 - 10 years
will be the major food exporter of the most important
food chains.
✓ Sufficient supply of water for agriculture.
✓ Is a net producer and exporter of the sugarcane-based
ethanol, used as E100 and E25 (100% ethanol cars and
25% ethanol in gasoline).
✓ Has one of the highest mixed-raced populations
✓ in the world and a long-term acceptance of the Chine
secommunity living in Brazil.
✓ The federal government has given great importance to
relations with China.
✓ Has the largest capacity for international investments and
logistics.
✓ Faces an incredible growth of income and
✓ urbanization and will need more food.
✓ Has a large number of investors to invest
✓ and take advantage of opportunities in Brazil.
✓ Low levels of new land available for food production and is
thinking of investing abroad to guarantee food security.
Scarcity of water for agriculture in some areas, and
environmental pressures.
✓ In 5 - 10 years will need quantities of food from abroad and
most of this food will come from Brazil.
✓ Will need to expand biofuels production and usage toward
a cleaner environment, adding biofuels to gasoline (E5 or
E10%) and other. These biofuels can be produced by
Chinese investments in Brazil and Africa.
✓ Has a large Chinese community living in Brazil
✓ for several years.
✓ Very good relationship on a federal level with Brazil.
BRAZIL CHINA
Source: Author

22. Source: MDIC
With higher Chinese demand for agricultural products that had USA origin, numbers tend
to increase.
China | The Biggest Partner of Brazil (2018)
Source: Charles Tang Brazil-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry

23. Os EUA como Mercado Importador do Agro (Gráficos do USDA)
Percentual do total consumido que é importado
Valores importados em dólares
Fonte: slide elaborado por Marcos Fava Neves com gráficos do USDA

24. How to use MAPEA?

25. Aula 05 - Mercados Alvo para Exportação
Framework Modelo MAPEA
Principais Países
Importadores e Valores
Variáveis para Projeções das Importações
Estimativas para os
Próximos 10 Anos
Desenho de Estratégias
Públicas e Privadas
1 - Principais Produtos
Importados pelos Países
2 - Evolução das Importações
em Quantidades e Valores
nos Últimos 10 anos
1 - Populações LYGU (tamanho, idade,
crescimento e urbanização
2 - Geração Crescente de Renda (PIB)
3 - Evolução na Distribuição de Renda
4 - Recursos Valiosos de Exportação
5 - Escassez de Recursos Produtivos
Agrícolas
6 - Legislação Favorável às Importações
7 - Evolução de Política de Políticas de
Biocombustíveis
8 - Presença de Canais de Distribuição e
Logística para Importações
9 - Taxa de Câmbio Favorável às
Importações (Valorizada)
10 - Comportamento do Consumidor
Favorável ao Consumo
1 - Elaborar as Projeções
por Produtos
2 - Elaborar as Projeções
Agregadas de
Importações dos
Próximos 10 Anos
1 - Estratégias Públicas de
Aberturas de Mercados e
Construções de Acordos
Comerciais, Sanitários e
Outros
2 - Estratégias Público-
Privadas de Entradas em
Mercados
3 - Estratégias Privadas de
Entradas em Mercados
Fonte: Neves, M. F.; Valério F. R.; Cambaúva V.; Marques, V. N. (Rev. Agron. Bras., 2020)

26. For Each of These Factors We Developed Indicators in Order to Measure and Give
Grades for 10 Emerging Countries:
Factors Indicators Source
1.1 Large populations Number of inhabitants United Nations
1.2 Growing populations Percentage of population growth in the last four years United Nations
1.3 Young populations
Percentage of inhabitants up to 14 years old in 2020 United Nations
Average growth in the last four years United Nations
1.4 Fast urbanization
2020 urban percentage World Bank
Average growth in the last four years United Nations
2. Income generation
2020 annual GDP United Nations
Average growth in the last four years United Nations
3. Income distribution Gini index World Bank
4. Valued resources
2020 exports of goods and services and prices World Bank
Average growth in the last four years World Bank
Source: Neves, 2014

27. Factors Indicators Source
5. Lack of producing resources
Arable land (2020 and 4 years growth) World Bank
Water availability World Bank
Foreign investments World Bank
6. Regulations that favor food
imports
Food import taxes WEF – Global Competitiveness Report
Trade barriers WEF – Global Competitiveness Report
Stability of governments and institutional environment WEF – Global Competitiveness Report
7. Adoptions of policies towards
blending biofuels to petrol
Percentage of biofuels mixed with petrol fuel Global Renewable Fuels Alliance
8. Import distribution channels
and feasible logistics
Goods market efficiency WEF – Global Competitiveness Report
Transportation infrastructure WEF – Global Competitiveness Report
9. Valued local currency Exhange rates of the last 4 years (dollar) World Bank
10. Consumer Behavior Diet Composition FAO
For Each of These Factors We Developed Indicators in Order to Measure and Give
Grades for 10 Emerging Countries:
Source: Neves, 2014