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50 Years of Growth, Innovation and Leadership



The Role of Social Network Analysis in Data-Centric
Vertical Markets: How KXEN’s InfiniteInsight™ Social is Paving the Way
in the Use of Social Relationships to Drive Cross-Industry Marketing Results




                                                               A Frost & Sullivan
                                                                  White Paper

                                                                 Saverio Romeo

                                                                 www.frost.com
Frost & Sullivan



1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...........................................................................................................                      4

2. ANALYZING DATA-CENTRIC VERTICAL MARKETS WITH SOCIAL NETWORK
  ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................         5


      A Brief Introduction on the Role of Social Data in Various Vertical Markets.................................                                    5

      An Introduction to Social Network Analysis .................................................................................                    5

      The Use of SNA in Vertical Markets .............................................................................................                6

      Boosting Predictive Power with SNA ............................................................................................                 6

3. INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL – SNA SOLUTION BY KXEN ...................................................                                                 7

      Overview of InfiniteInsight™ Social ..............................................................................................              7

      The Main Features of InfiniteInsight™ Social ...............................................................................                    8

      The Benefits of InfiniteInsight™ Social… ......................................................................................                 8

4. SNA IN THE COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY ......................................................................... 10

      The Adoption of SNA in the Communications Industry ................................................................. 10

      The Applications of SNA in the Communications Industry ............................................................ 11

      InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Communications Industry ............................................................. 11

5. SNA IN THE BANKING AND FINANCE INDUSTRY ................................................................ 13

      The Adoption of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry ........................................... 13

      The Applications of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry ...................................... 13

      InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Banking and Financial Services Industry ....................................... 14

6. SNA IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY .............................................................................................. 15

      The Adoption of SNA in the Retail Industry .................................................................................. 15

      The Applications of SNA in the Retail Industry ............................................................................. 16

      InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Retail Industry…........................................................................... 16


7. CUSTOMER CASE – MONOTARO – SEGMENTING AND TARGETING
   CUSTOMERS WITH INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL .................................................................. 17


      Overview of MonotaRO................................................................................................................. 17

      MonotaRO’s Challenges with a Growing Customer Base ............................................................... 18

      InfiniteInsight™ Changed MonotaRO’s Approach to Customers ................................................... 19

      InfiniteInsight™ Social for Enhancing Customer Segmentation and Product Recommendations ... 20

      Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 20


8. CUSTOMER CASE – THE SUCCESSFUL CASE OF MOBILINK – USING INFINITEINSIGHT™
   SOCIAL IN EMERGING COMMUNICATIONS MARKET ........................................................... 20


      Brief Overview on Mobilink ........................................................................................................... 20

      Why Mobilink Needs Social Network Analysis ............................................................................... 21

      How Mobilink Uses InfiniteInsight™ Social ................................................................................... 21

      Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 22

9. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 23




                                                                                  CONTENTS
Frost & Sullivan




                    1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                    Data is like a river that continuously expands as it is constantly fed by numerous
                    tributaries. The increasing complexity and volume of data evident today is driven by
                    a variety of events happening across a broad range of industries - mobile phone
                    calls, credit card swipes, website clicks and retail purchases are some of the
                    thousands of data points that are growing at an exponential rate. In addition, the
                    astonishing growth of social networks has empowered ‘word of mouth’, making the
                    data held by organisations inherently social. Today, marketers in almost every
                    organization recognize the social value of their data in terms of understanding
                    consumers’ behaviour and identifying new business opportunities. Social Network
                    Analysis (or SNA) is an advanced technique that enables companies to analyze
                    social data and make sense of it.

                    During the 1950s and 1960s, SNA was almost exclusively used in academic
                    environments to research the behavior of specific social groups. But it was only
                    with the advent of digital social networks - and the astonishing developments of the
                    realm of data computing – that the value of social network analysis became evident
                    outside the academic environment. The communications industry started to
                    understand the value of social network analysis. But, today, SNA extends far beyond
                    its telecoms routes, being used by companies such as banks, retailers, and online
                    gaming providers. In general, every industry characterized by large event streams,
                    and therefore rich of customer and transaction data, can benefit from using Social
                    Network Analysis.

                    This paper explores the use of Social Network Analysis in vertical markets through
                    the experience of KXEN’s SNA solution, InfiniteInsight™ Social. KXEN launched its
                    first Social Network Analysis solution in 2009. KXEN’s approach to SNA gained
                    immediate traction in various verticals, notably communications, banking, and retail.
                    Today, KXEN’s InfiniteInsight™ Social solution offers an intuitive and effective way
                    of building and analyzing social networks.

                    InfiniteInsight™ Social rapidly builds social networks independently of the size of
                    the data. Once the social network is built, InfiniteInsight™ Social creates a number
                    of social attributes such as:

                    •       Social position of a node
                    •       Network roles of the node (for example, bridge, leader, local leader)
                    •       Social pressure
                    •       Social influence
                    •       Community profiles
                    •       Diffusion simulation

                    In combination with KXEN’s leadership in predictive analytics and their flagship
                    product, InfiniteInsight™, these attributes are then used to describe and predict the
                    behaviour of customers.

                    InfiniteInsight™ Social has been used successfully in communications providers,
                    banks, finance organizations, on-line retailers and traditional retailers for a variety
                    of purposes such as churn management, product recommendations, and fraud
                    detection.
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This whitepaper illustrates two case studies of KXEN’s customers, MonotaRO and
Mobilink, using the solution successfully. These two case studies show that KXEN’s
                                                                                             “Today, marketers in
solution is a user-friendly, rapid, and efficient tool and its native integration to the
                                                                                                  any organization
company’s predictive capabilities powerfully enhance the analysis of customer base
                                                                                               recognize the social
behavior.
                                                                                               value of their data
                                                                                                 for understanding
2. ANALYZING DATA-CENTRIC VERTICAL MARKETS WITH SOCIAL                                        consumers' behavior
NETWORK ANALYSIS                                                                            and spotting business
                                                                                              opportunities. Social
A Brief Introduction on the Role of Social Data in Various Vertical Markets                      Network Analysis
                                                                                            (SNA) is an advanced
In a famous interview, Hal Varian, professor of Information Sciences, Business and
                                                                                           technique that enables
Economics at the University of California and Google’s chief economist, said: “I keep
                                                                                            companies to analyze
saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians.” The amount of
                                                                                             social data and make
data available in the economy and society is tremendous. Its growth is exponential.
                                                                                                       sense of it”
Its value is unimaginable. The ability to extract this value, process it, interpret it,
deliver it and use it for strategic decisions is the big challenge for any business
today and in the future.

Statisticians have coined the term “big data” to describe the explosion of huge
amounts of data that various types of organizations are dealing with. The term
describes data sets that are becoming increasingly complex and difficult to manage
and analyze. The complexity of “big” data is driven by a variety of events happening
in different industries, such as mobile phone calls, credit card swipes, website clicks
and purchases in stores and virtual shops. In addition to that, “big data” has a strong
social nature.

The astonishing growth of social networks and digital communications devices and
applications has extraordinarily empowered the word of mouth making
organizations’ data inherently social. Today, marketers in any organization recognize
the social value of their data for understanding consumers’ behavior and spotting
business opportunities. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is an advanced technique
that enables companies to analyze social data and make sense of it.


An Introduction to Social Network Analysis

Social network analysis is used to analyze customer base behavior and spot revenue
opportunities. It is based on the concept of social networks, a set of relationships
between entities (consumers, products, etc.). The social network is represented
through a graph of nodes and links. Each node represents a customer or entity.
Links represent the relationships between customers or between entities.

Once the social network is built, social network analysis uses graph theory
algorithms to detect and interpret social ties between nodes and groups of nodes.
Typical analysis includes detection of specific communities and their structure as
well as identification of different roles within the network and communities
analysis. This information can then be used to optimize operational activities that
can lead to cost reduction and new revenues streams.



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                    Figure 1: The Social Network is a Set of Nodes and Links




                    Source: KXEN



                    The Use of SNA in Vertical Markets

                    During the 1950s and 1960s, social network analysis was almost exclusively used in
                    academic environments to research the behavior of specific social groups. But, only
                    with the advent of digital social networks and the astonishing development of data
                    computing did social network analysis become known outside academic
                    environments.

                    The communications industry, and primarily the mobile communications industry,
                    started to understand the value of social network analysis. Mobile network
                    operators’ data is naturally social. SNA has been used to understand the structure
                    of the networks of mobile users and uses this analysis to re-design marketing and
                    customer churn campaign. As the results in the communications industry revealed
                    the power of SNA, other verticals have started looking at SNA for analyzing their
                    customer base.

                    Today, the applications of SNA have gone beyond telecoms and are used in banks,
                    financial organizations, retailing organizations, online gaming organizations, and
                    government, mainly in the areas of security. In general, every industry characterized
                    by large event streams, and therefore rich of customer data and transaction data,
                    can use SNA.


                    Boosting Predictive Power with SNA

                    Social network analysis does not just enable a more powerful understanding of
                    social networks and communities, but it also empowers predictive models. SNA
                    enables marketers to predict behavioral changes of communities, and also to
                    identify specific communities of interest. The output of SNA, made of different
                    social variables and aggregates of variables, is used to empower predictive
                    modeling. For example, SNA can help mobile network operators predict the viral
                    diffusion of churn, detecting the likelihood of customers to be influenced by recent
                    churn behavior in their communities.


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3. INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL – SNA SOLUTION BY KXEN

Overview of InfiniteInsight™ Social

KXEN launched its first social network analysis solution in 2009. KXEN’s approach
to SNA got an immediate traction in various verticals, including communications,
banking, and retail. Today, InfiniteInsight™ Social, largely relying on that experience,
offers an intuitive and effective way of building and analyzing social networks.
InfiniteInsight™ Social rapidly builds social networks independently of the size of
the data. Once the social network is built, InfiniteInsight™ Social creates a number
of social attributes, such as:
       • Social position of a node (centrality measures)
       • Network roles of the node (bridge, leader, local leader)
       • Social pressure and influence
       • Community profiles
       • Diffusion simulation


These attributes are then used to describe and predict behavior of customers and
communities of customers. The InfiniteInsight™ Social workflow is illustrated in
Figure 2.


Figure 2: InfiniteInsight™ Social Workflow




Source: KXEN




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                        1. The user specifies the various network filters (SMS, voice, off-peak
                           networks, etc.).

                        2. The corresponding filtered transactional data (CDRs or else) is loaded and
                           social graphs are produced.

                        3. The user decides which interesting attributes to produce.

                        4. The user can run queries on the produced networks, modify them.

                        5. The corresponding variables are joined to the existing customer
                           information, and a predictive model analyzing all attributes (including social
                           ones) can be built with InfiniteInsight™ Modeler. InfiniteInsight™ has been
                           successfully used in diverse industry contexts, from communications to
                           banking, and retail.



                    The Main Features of InfiniteInsight™ Social

                    Social network analysis is largely based on graph theory. Its complexity has
                    historically affected the speed of adoption of SNA outside academic environments.
                    KXEN has developed InfiniteInsight™ Social with the aim to make SNA simple and
                    accessible to professionals without a specific and detailed knowledge of the
                    underlying mathematics. InfiniteInsight™ Social offers a very intuitive user interface
                    for building and analyzing social networks.

                    Despite this, the solution also presents various modules for advanced users of SNA.
                    For example, InfiniteInsight™ Modeler and its best-in-class predictive technology
                    enhances the value of InfiniteInsight™ Social, as it is able to quickly build predictive
                    models based on a large number of social extra-variables. The idea is simple, but
                    powerful. The combination of the two software modules does not only enable the
                    user to identify the influencers present in that moment in the network, but to use
                    that information to predict the influence that they will have on their communities’
                    behavior, as well as to predict individuals who are about to become influencers.



                    The Benefits of InfiniteInsight™ Social

                    The features of InfiniteInsight™ Social have clear benefits for the users:

                         • Powerful predictive capabilities

                         • User-friendly interface

                         • Very low computational time when building social networks and rapidly
                           creating social attributes

                         • Detailed community detection and analysis




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But, InfiniteInsight™ Social users can gain more insights. They can easily create sub-
networks by setting filters in the interface. They can set various conditions for link
                                                                                                InfiniteInsight™
creation and different modes to explore social graphs. Some of the key features of
                                                                                                  Social is a fast,
InfiniteInsight™ Social are listed below:
                                                                                           scalable and dynamic
                                                                                          software product with
                                                                                          powerful visualization
1. InfiniteInsight™ Social has powerful visualization capabilities
                                                                                                 capabilities and
     • Offers both bottom-up and top-down graph exploration                                   combined with the
                                                                                             best-in-class KXEN
     • Switch to “Community mode” and depicts customer roles in the network                predictive technology
                                                                                                 provides a large
     • Superimpose social graphs and pinpoint the differences in the graph                    spectrum of social
       evolution                                                                            network capabilities
                                                                                          for understanding and
                                                                                                predicting social
2. InfiniteInsight™ Social is fast, scalable and dynamic
                                                                                                 influence across
     • Takes 20 minutes to load 16M nodes with 59M links                                        diverse customer
                                                                                                     communities
     • Scales up with several million nodes and links, billions of CDRs rows


3. InfiniteInsight™ Social identifies “influencers” for specific business problems with
a patented methodology


4. InfiniteInsight™ Social detects hidden links in your data and links individuals
using multiple identities


5. InfiniteInsight™ Social’s unique approach is to combine SNA and predictive
technology, using InfiniteInsight™ Modeler

     • The targeting accuracy is improved (usually by 50 percent-plus in the first
       decile)


6. InfiniteInsight™ Social is a software product, not a piece of software on top of a
service; no out-sourcing of data or knowledge is required



In conclusion, InfiniteInsight™ Social provides a spectrum of social network analysis
capabilities so that you can understand social influence and behaviors across your
customer communities.




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                    4. SNA IN THE COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY

                    The Adoption of SNA in the Communications Industry


                    The increasing penetration of communications networks and devices has driven the
                    use of social network analysis (SNA) in the communications industry. This
                    phenomenon has principally emerged in the mobile communications industry, where
                    customer data has an explicit social nature. SNA was first employed intensively in
                    developed mobile communications markets, including Western European and North
                    American, where the number of mobile subscribers per head of population is
                    typically more than 100 percent. Today, almost all Mobile Network Operators
                    (MNOs) in Europe and North America have either introduced SNA or have
                    considerable experience in the use of SNA.


                    The European and North American experience of SNA underlined the power of
                    such solutions for mobile network operators, prompting the larger Asian MNOs to
                    introduce SNA into their data analytics suites. Asia—particularly the Far East—is
                    now a rapid adopter of social network analysis.


                    Figure 3: SNA in Communications – State of Adoption




                          Consolidating              Growing                      Emerging

                                                                               Source: Frost & Sullivan




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The Applications of SNA in the Communications Industry

                                                                                      “InfiniteInsight™
With mobile communications markets becoming highly saturated, mobile network          Social puts the power
operators started to observe ARPU declines and a migration of subscribers toward      of social networks
rival operators and service providers. The immediate desire of MNOs was to have       analysis in-house”
a better understanding of their customers’ behavior in order to reduce the impact
of these negative developments.                                                       Jaroslaw Kosinski,
                                                                                      Corporate Project
                                                                                      Manager, TPSA
MNOs have used a range of analytical tools for predictive purposes for some time.     Poland.
However, the accuracy of these models was largely unsatisfactory and,
consequently, the churn management techniques were not effective. Social network
analysis introduced the community perspective to the existing churn prevention
methods. Using Call Detail Record (CDR) data, SNA detects and interprets
communities of subscribers. This, in combination with predictive models, vastly
improved churn management activities.


The use of social network analysis with regards to churn management remains the
key application within the communications industry. However, as mobile network
operators’ experience of using SNA has evolved, the applications of SNA have
moved toward different directions. MNOs are able to analyze specific churn
management problems such as rotational churn. They are also able to perform
detailed customer segmentation, community behavior analysis, detection of specific
customers (i.e., multi-SIM users) and identification of community leaders or
influencers. All of this has been used to design and optimize viral marketing
campaigns for new products and services, refer-a-friend campaigns, and to detect
fraud. The overall result is that an MNO can use SNA to both prevent revenue
decline and spot new opportunities for ARPU growth.


InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Communications Industry


KXEN is a key provider of social network analysis solutions for the communications
industry. KXEN combines social network analysis and predictive analytics to explain
the social structure of the mobile network and uses its dynamics to better predict
customer behavior and specific roles in the network.




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                        InfiniteInsight™ Social brings that concept into the hands of communications
                        providers, enabling them to:
InfiniteInsight™
Social has been used
in a large number of           •   Reduce churn
communications                 •   Identify specific roles in the social network
providers across the           •   Pinpoint influencers
world reaching                 •   Optimize the viral adoption of new products and services
excellent results in           •   Acquire new customers
churn reduction and            •   Segment customers
viral adoption of new          •   Detect rotational churners
products and services          •   Identify and profile multi-SIM users
                               •   Gain insight on competition
                               •   Track past churners


                        InfiniteInsight™ Social has performed the above tasks in a large number of
                        communications providers across the world, reaching excellent results, such as in
                        the example in Figure 4.


                        Figure 4: InfiniteInsight™ Social Identifies Influencers in a Community of
                        Mobile Subscribers

                        The software built a social network of 14 million nodes in one hour. Using these results,
                         the company was able to identify influencers with the potential to adopt new products
                                           three to seven times better than before using SNA .




                        Source: KXEN




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5. SNA IN THE BANKING AND FINANCE INDUSTRY

The Adoption of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry


Fraud detection has been the initial driver of adoption of social network analysis in
the banking and financial services industry. Initially, the solution was tested in North
American and Western European banks, where the cases of fraud from credit cards
and debit cards were more frequent. However, the use of social network analysis
rapidly spread in other financial organizations, such as money transfer companies,
not necessarily located in the Western world, but also in Africa, Latin America, and
Asia.


Today, it can be said that the value of social network analysis for fraud detection is
recognized almost worldwide. However, the use of social network analysis for other
business purposes has gained momentum in the past three years, particularly in
North America, Europe, certain Asian markets and wealthy Middle East countries.


Figure 5: SNA in Banking and Finance – State of Adoption




      Spread and using                Spread and
      SNA for different               exploring                     Emerging
      purposes                        different usages
                                                               Source: Frost & Sullivan


The Applications of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry


Social network analysis can be beneficial for banks and financial organizations in
many activities of their business. Money transfers, check transactions or credit card
purchases are the “links” building such social networks.


As seen, fraud detection is an important application of SNA, but applications in
customer relationship management (CRM) and risk management are gaining
traction.

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                          In the area of CRM, banks can use SNA for acquiring new customers, improving
                          customer retention techniques, and cross-selling activities through viral marketing.
InfiniteInsight™
                          SNA can identify networks of non-existing customers that are connected with
Social can rapidly
                          existing customers. This knowledge can optimize acquisition campaigns. In cross-sell
address different tasks
                          activities, communities of customers and relative roles, from influencers to
for banks and other
                          potential buyers, can be detected and their behavior can be predicted in order to
financial
                          optimize new product marketing campaigns. As in the communications industry,
organizations such as
                          SNA can help financial organizations reduce churn rates by combining the analysis
customer relationship
                          of the social networks with the power of predictive models.
management, risk
management and
fraud detection           InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Banking and Financial Services Industry


                          InfiniteInsight™ Social can rapidly and easily address different tasks for banks and
                          other financial organizations. Using transaction data, the KXEN solution builds
                          social networks based on direct links—bank transfers and check transactions—and
                          on indirect links—linking customers to products purchased and agencies. These
                          networks are then analyzed for addressing problems in customer relationship
                          management, risk management and fraud detection.


                          InfiniteInsight™ Social has successfully enabled banks and financial companies to:


                               • Optimize new customer acquisition campaigns like refer-a-friend
                               • Detect communities of interest for new product launch and communities
                                 of risk for churn prevention
                               • Identify customers with high potential for purchasing new products
                               • Identify customer with high potential of churning
                               • Identify influencers
                               • Detect and predict potential credit defaults
                               • Identify fraudsters and communities of fraudsters


                          Figure 6: InfiniteInsight™ Social Identifies High Communities of Fraud

                             The chart shows communities of merchants linked by credit cards. The bigger the
                            community is in this graph, the more merchants are in it; the closer it is to red, the
                                                          more fraud there is in it.




                                                                            Fraud!

                                                                           Source: KXEN




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6. SNA IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY

The Adoption of SNA in the Retail Industry


The retail industry has different sources of customer data. These can take the form
of credit card transactions and information from locality programs in traditional
outlets and stores to digital communities’ data in online shopping environments.
Social network analysis helps retail companies make sense of all this data for better
understanding their customer base and for better satisfying their purchasing habits
and desires. In fact, customer segmentation and product recommendation are areas
where social network analysis is used. This is happening primarily in Europe, North
America, Australia and part of Asia, such as South Korea and Japan.


Figure 7: SNA in Retail – State of Adoption




      Increasing use of SNA                    Emerging use of SNA
                                                             Source: Frost & Sullivan




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                        The Applications of SNA in the Retail Industry

InfiniteInsight™
Social enhances         The key aim of using SNA in the retail industry is to understand which products
product                 interest customers the most and which is the best way to recommend these
recommendations by      products. Searching a product from numerous choices and then making a decision
introducing product     can become a tough task. Retail companies have used different recommendation
communities as a        agents to make that easier for customers. However, many of these agents do not
building block of the   take into consideration the social nature of the shopping. In the recommendation
recommendation rules.   context, the interest of two friends tends to be related and, therefore, their
                        purchasing modes can be similar. Social network analysis is able to detect patterns
                        of relationships between individuals and between products and individuals, and all
                        this information can improve recommendation techniques.


                        InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Retail Industry


                        InfiniteInsight™ Social aims to enhance product recommendation by introducing
                        product communities as a building block of the recommendation rules. The analysis
                        of these communities can reveal relationships between products that were not
                        possible to detect with other techniques. In addition to that, the analysis of these
                        communities can identify influential products, but also highlight other types of
                        products such as the not-so-frequent products. Recommendation rules can then be
                        built around influential products, but also around other types of products and
                        entities relevant for the retailer (“bridge products,” for example). All this can be
                        done in a scalable way and faster than any other method. In addition to that,
                        InfiniteInsight™ Social visualizes the rules, and this appears to be extremely helpful
                        for companies.


                        The overall approach of InfiniteInsight™ Social to the development of
                        recommendation rules is the following:


                             • Two products are linked because they share some common features—
                               clicks, purchases, bids, tags and others
                             • The software analyzes these links and then creates rules
                             • It then identifies communities of products
                             • Finally, personalized recommendations are built using the community of
                               interest each authenticated customer belongs to (see graph below)




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Figure 8: InfiniteInsight™ Social Detects Communities of Interest for
Product Recommendations
                                                                                         “InfiniteInsight™
                                                                                         Social is increasing
If the number of customers purchasing product A is greater than the average, then that
                                                                                         stickiness on our
  community of customers is called “the community of product A.” Therefore, product A
                                                                                         website by
                    can be recommended to all of the community.
                                                                                         personalizing dynamic
                                                                                         movie
                                                                                         recommendations. For
                                                                                         us it is the best choice
                                                                                         we made this year.”

                                                                                         Frédéric Krebs, COO
                                                                                         Allociné France.




                                                              Source: KXEN




InfiniteInsight™ Social has been successfully used for the generation of
recommendation rules in various retail contexts, but its power also has been
demonstrated for identifying influencers for detecting habits of shopping
communities.



7. CUSTOMER CASE – MONOTARO – SEGMENTING AND
TARGETING CUSTOMERS WITH INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL



Overview of MonotaRO


MonotaRO was established in 2000 with the aim to become a leading player in the
Japanese market for direct marketing of indirect materials and consumable items
for enterprises through the Internet, fax, and the phone. Since then, the market
growth of the company has been exceptional. At the end of 2010, the total revenues
were 22bn Yen, e.g., about 300mln US$. MonotaRO is also publicly quoted on Tokyo
Stock Exchange.




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                    The number of SKUs (items) available for MonotaRO’s clients has grown
                    continuously over the years, reaching 1,500,000. These items are grouped in 60
                    categories, and they are available for 640,000 customers. The growth rate in terms
                    of new customers is also astonishing: 10,000 new customers per month. This pace
                    has made the customer growth rate almost exponential, as shown in the chart.


                    Figure 9: MonotaRO Customer Growth Over The Period 2002-2011


                                                 700,000


                                                 600,000
                           Number of Customers




                                                 500,000

                                                 400,000

                                                 300,000

                                                 200,000

                                                 100,000

                                                      0
                                                   1Q 1Q
                                                   3Q 002
                                                   1Q 002
                                                   3Q 003
                                                   1Q 003
                                                   3Q 04
                                                   1Q 004
                                                   3Q 005
                                                   1Q 005
                                                   3Q 06
                                                   1Q 006
                                                   3Q 007
                                                   1Q 007
                                                   Q 008
                                                   1Q 008
                                                   Q 009
                                                   1Q 009
                                                   Q 010
                                                         10
                                                      20




                                                      20




                                                      20
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2


                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2


                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                      2
                                                    3


                                                    3


                                                    3
                                                            Time                 Source: MonotaRO




                    MonotaRO’s Challenges with a Growing Customer Base


                    As the customer base was rapidly growing, MonotaRO started to face the
                    challenges to cope with a large customer base and a vast product portfolio. The
                    main concern regarded the risk to misinterpret or miss customers’ needs. At that
                    time, MonotaRO’s customers chose their products from the catalog, but there were
                    not appropriate marketing tools in place for advising customers about new items.
                    MonotaRO needed a systematic marketing approach for providing customers with
                    personalized recommendations without being invasive and inappropriate.


                    In 2005, MonotaRO introduced a data analytics system based on IBM’s SPSS. The aim
                    was to identify customers’ lists for specific marketing activities. However, the
                    approach soon appeared to be time consuming and difficult for a company that did
                    not employ any statisticians. The only activity MonotaRO could do was identify
                    groups of customers for delivering catalogs once a year. Clearly, the timeline was
                    not satisfactory.




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Frost & Sullivan




InfiniteInsight™ Changed MonotaRO’s Approach to Customers


MonotaRO decided to introduce InfiniteInsight™ in May 2008. The impact was
immediate. It took just three months to deploy, and in August 2008, MonotaRO
started its daily operations with the predictive analytics solution. First off,
IntiniteInsight™ was easy to use. MonotaRO did not need any employees with a
statistics background. Existing MonotaRO’s employees were in charge of
InfiniteInsight™, and they became familiar with software without major difficulties.
Today, MonotaRO is able to produce 42 propensity models in a month, practically a
revolution.


One of the first effects of this revolution was the creation of specific catalogs for
specific groups of customers. Before the introduction of InfiniteInsight™,
MonotaRO had only one catalog with nearly 1,700 pages. InfiniteInsight™ enabled
MonotaRO to segment their customer base per interest and create several catalogs.
Currently, MonotaRO develops seven catalogs for a total of 4,000 pages. The
customer segmentation also enables MonotaRO to target specific customers with
advertising materials on new products and new offers.



Figure 10: MonotaRO’s Catalog Shift


                                      Safety, cleaning,   Tool, measuring,     FA, machine
                                      material handling       welding             parts




               previous big catalog
                     1700P
                                      Automotive parts    Construction       Laboratory items
  Source: MonotaRO                                           items




In 2009, the predictive analysis introduced by InfiniteInsight™ was combined with
UNICA, a campaign management tool. This combination makes the marketing cycle,
from planning to measurement, short in time and almost entirely automatated.




                                                                                                frost.com   19
Frost & Sullivan




                          InfiniteInsight™ Social for Enhancing Customer Segmentation and Product
                          Recommendations
MonotaRO is able to
build better product
categorization four       In 2010, MonotaRO introduced InfiniteInsight™ Social to empower its marketing
times faster and define   cycle with the use of Social Network Analysis (SNA). SNA has enabled the company
product                   to improve the detection of communities of customers who purchase common
recommendation rules      products and communities of products which tend to be purchased by similar
that are relevant for     customers. This information has enabled MonotaRO to improve customer
customers.                segmentation and create associate rules for recommendations.


                          Conclusions


                          InfiniteInsight™ has played a critical role in the growth of MonotaRO. It has
                          transformed the way the company analyzes and engages with its customers. Today,
                          MonotaRO detects communities of customers, designs marketing campaigns and
                          measures their effects on a daily basis. With the use of SNA, MonotaRO has
                          introduced another level of refinement to their customer base analysis, improving
                          recommendation rules.



                          8. CUSTOMER CASE – THE SUCCESSFUL CASE OF MOBILINK –
                          USING INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL IN EMERGING
                          COMMUNICATIONS MARKET

                          Brief Overview on Mobilink


                          In April 2011, the number of mobile subscribers in Pakistan reached 108 million,
                          bringing the mobile penetration in the country close to 60 percent, one of the
                          highest penetrations in the South Asian region. The market is expected to further
                          grow rapidly, creating opportunities for the large competitive landscape. In fact, the
                          number of mobile network operators in Pakistan is surprisingly high: six GSM
                          operators, three CDMA providers and also WiMAX providers. In this crowded
                          landscape, Mobilink is the undisputable market leader, with 32 million customers.


                          Two key features of the subscriber base in Pakistan justify the high number of
                          mobile network operators in the market. The subscriber base is highly volatile. They
                          move across operators looking for better deals, leaving a mobile network operator
                          and coming back to the same one when there is a good offer in terms of service
                          and pricing. Therefore, the churn rate is very high. The other relevant feature is the
                          multi-SIM phenomenon (whereby a customer will have multiple phones, typically to
                          take advantage of new customer pricing with each purchase). Pakistan mobile
                          market is estimated to have between 30 percent and 40 percent subscribers with
                          multi-SIM.




 20     frost.com
Frost & Sullivan




  Why Mobilink Needs Social Network Analysis


  In the complex mobile communications market described previously, understanding
  the behavior of the subscriber base becomes essential for reducing churn, better
  serving customers and identifying new revenues. Understanding the attitude of the
  single subscriber is not enough. Instead, gaining insights on the relationships
  between subscribers is extremely valuable. In fact, information and analysis about
  the social sphere of subscribers provide insights on how these subscribers are
  influenced by others, if they feel the pressure from other subscribers and if they
  influence other subscribers in adopting a new service and purchasing a new
  product. This information helps Mobilink retain customers, acquire new ones, and
  promote new products. Mobilink soon realized that social network analysis is the
  only tool that enables the development of such detailed knowledge about the
  subscriber base.


  How Mobilink Uses InfiniteInsight™ Social


  Mobilink started using InfiniteInsight™ in 2007. The initial aim was to segment the
  customer base and develop predictive modeling on those segments. Soon, Mobilink
  appreciated the flexibility and usability of the KXEN software solution and it has
  recently looked at the combined use of social network analysis with predictive
  modeling using InfiniteInsight™ Social.


  The use of InfiniteInsight™ Social has enabled Mobilink to address two key business
  challenges: increasing the accuracy of prediction models for churn and better
  promoting the adoption of value-added services. In the case of churn, Mobilink can
  predict that within the top 10 percent of subscribers, 50 percent of them are
  potential churners. The improvement in accuracy is shown in the chart below.


  Figure 11: Comparing SNA-Based Churn Model with Other Models

                                              Random       Inactivity Based Model              NextGen             Perfect

                              100
Cumulative Churn Percentage




                               90
                               80
                                                       10% Base - 50% Churners
                               70
                               60
                               50
                                                                         16% Base - 28% Churners
                               40
                               30
                               20
                               10
                                0
                                    0   1 0      2 0    3 0        4 0       5 0       6 0         7 0       8 0       9 0   1 0 0

                                                        Percentage Population                            Source: Mobilink




                                                                                                                                     frost.com   21
Frost & Sullivan




                         In the case of the adoption of value-added services, the results show that for each
                         targeted influencer, you could bring four potential adopters.
Mobilink has seen an
eight-fold increase in
campaign response        Despite the positive results, the implementation of SNA in Mobilink is just in the
rates using predictive   beginning stages. The market leader in Pakistan has at least three clear objectives
analytics from           to achieve in the near future.
InfiniteInsight™. It
expects those numbers
to increase when             1. Using insights on the subscriber base for acquiring critical users and likely
combined with the use           influencers from competitors.
of social variables
derived from                 2. Preventing the churn of influencers from Mobilink network.
InfiniteInsight™
Social.
                             3. Stimulating influencers in the area of value-added services with new
                                content, products and promotions in order to enable virality in the
                                communities.


                         Conclusions


                         Mobilink is strongly aware that subscriber data is a key competitive asset for
                         managing a volatile subscriber base. The market leader also recognizes that
                         exploring the social sphere of subscribers is more insightful than just analyzing
                         behavior of single subscribers. In light of all this, Mobilink has adopted
                         InfiniteInsight™ Social for looking into communities of subscribers for preventing
                         churns, identifying influencers and enabling product virality. The company has seen
                         an eight-fold increase in campaign response rates using predictive analytics from
                         InfiniteInsight™. It expects those numbers to increase when combined with the use
                         of social variables derived from InfiniteInsight™ Social. For Mobilink, this is just the
                         beginning of a valuable journey in the power of social network analysis.




 22     frost.com
Frost & Sullivan




8. CONCLUSION



We live in a data-centric world. Data describes business processes, and individual
and community behaviors. The analysis of this data is fundamental to making
business operations more efficient and more profitable. Social network analysis is
an intelligent tool that looks inside user behavior and communities, and in
combination with predictive analytic techniques, allows businesses to identify
patterns and predict trends, regardless of context. InfiniteInsight™ Social from
KXEN is a software product that makes this possible in a user-friendly, rapid and
efficient way, and its native integration to the company’s predictive capabilities is a
unique and powerful solution.




                                                                                          frost.com   23
London                                            Oxford                                         Silicon Valley
4, Grosvenor Gardens,                             4100 Chancellor Court                          331 E. Evelyn Ave. Suite 100
London SWIW ODH,UK                                Oxford Business Park                           Mountain View, CA 94041
Tel 44(0)20 7730 3438                             Oxford, OX4 2GX, UK                            Tel 650.475.4500
Fax 44(0)20 7730 3343                             Tel: +44 (0) 1865 398600                       Fax 650.475.1570
                                                  Fax: +44 (0) 1865 398601




                               +44 (0)20 7730 3438 • enquiries@frost.com
                                                 http://www.frost.com




  ABOUT FROST & SULLIVAN
  Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, partners with clients to accelerate their growth. The company's
  TEAM Research, Growth Consulting, and Growth Team Membership™ empower clients to create a growth-focused
  culture that generates, evaluates, and implements effective growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan employs over 50 years
  of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses, and the investment community from
  more than 40 offices on six continents. For more information about Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Partnership Services,
  visit http://www.frost.com.


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SNA Mobilink Case Study

  • 1. 50 Years of Growth, Innovation and Leadership The Role of Social Network Analysis in Data-Centric Vertical Markets: How KXEN’s InfiniteInsight™ Social is Paving the Way in the Use of Social Relationships to Drive Cross-Industry Marketing Results A Frost & Sullivan White Paper Saverio Romeo www.frost.com
  • 2.
  • 3. Frost & Sullivan 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 4 2. ANALYZING DATA-CENTRIC VERTICAL MARKETS WITH SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................. 5 A Brief Introduction on the Role of Social Data in Various Vertical Markets................................. 5 An Introduction to Social Network Analysis ................................................................................. 5 The Use of SNA in Vertical Markets ............................................................................................. 6 Boosting Predictive Power with SNA ............................................................................................ 6 3. INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL – SNA SOLUTION BY KXEN ................................................... 7 Overview of InfiniteInsight™ Social .............................................................................................. 7 The Main Features of InfiniteInsight™ Social ............................................................................... 8 The Benefits of InfiniteInsight™ Social… ...................................................................................... 8 4. SNA IN THE COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY ......................................................................... 10 The Adoption of SNA in the Communications Industry ................................................................. 10 The Applications of SNA in the Communications Industry ............................................................ 11 InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Communications Industry ............................................................. 11 5. SNA IN THE BANKING AND FINANCE INDUSTRY ................................................................ 13 The Adoption of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry ........................................... 13 The Applications of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry ...................................... 13 InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Banking and Financial Services Industry ....................................... 14 6. SNA IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY .............................................................................................. 15 The Adoption of SNA in the Retail Industry .................................................................................. 15 The Applications of SNA in the Retail Industry ............................................................................. 16 InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Retail Industry…........................................................................... 16 7. CUSTOMER CASE – MONOTARO – SEGMENTING AND TARGETING CUSTOMERS WITH INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL .................................................................. 17 Overview of MonotaRO................................................................................................................. 17 MonotaRO’s Challenges with a Growing Customer Base ............................................................... 18 InfiniteInsight™ Changed MonotaRO’s Approach to Customers ................................................... 19 InfiniteInsight™ Social for Enhancing Customer Segmentation and Product Recommendations ... 20 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 20 8. CUSTOMER CASE – THE SUCCESSFUL CASE OF MOBILINK – USING INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL IN EMERGING COMMUNICATIONS MARKET ........................................................... 20 Brief Overview on Mobilink ........................................................................................................... 20 Why Mobilink Needs Social Network Analysis ............................................................................... 21 How Mobilink Uses InfiniteInsight™ Social ................................................................................... 21 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 22 9. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 23 CONTENTS
  • 4. Frost & Sullivan 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Data is like a river that continuously expands as it is constantly fed by numerous tributaries. The increasing complexity and volume of data evident today is driven by a variety of events happening across a broad range of industries - mobile phone calls, credit card swipes, website clicks and retail purchases are some of the thousands of data points that are growing at an exponential rate. In addition, the astonishing growth of social networks has empowered ‘word of mouth’, making the data held by organisations inherently social. Today, marketers in almost every organization recognize the social value of their data in terms of understanding consumers’ behaviour and identifying new business opportunities. Social Network Analysis (or SNA) is an advanced technique that enables companies to analyze social data and make sense of it. During the 1950s and 1960s, SNA was almost exclusively used in academic environments to research the behavior of specific social groups. But it was only with the advent of digital social networks - and the astonishing developments of the realm of data computing – that the value of social network analysis became evident outside the academic environment. The communications industry started to understand the value of social network analysis. But, today, SNA extends far beyond its telecoms routes, being used by companies such as banks, retailers, and online gaming providers. In general, every industry characterized by large event streams, and therefore rich of customer and transaction data, can benefit from using Social Network Analysis. This paper explores the use of Social Network Analysis in vertical markets through the experience of KXEN’s SNA solution, InfiniteInsight™ Social. KXEN launched its first Social Network Analysis solution in 2009. KXEN’s approach to SNA gained immediate traction in various verticals, notably communications, banking, and retail. Today, KXEN’s InfiniteInsight™ Social solution offers an intuitive and effective way of building and analyzing social networks. InfiniteInsight™ Social rapidly builds social networks independently of the size of the data. Once the social network is built, InfiniteInsight™ Social creates a number of social attributes such as: • Social position of a node • Network roles of the node (for example, bridge, leader, local leader) • Social pressure • Social influence • Community profiles • Diffusion simulation In combination with KXEN’s leadership in predictive analytics and their flagship product, InfiniteInsight™, these attributes are then used to describe and predict the behaviour of customers. InfiniteInsight™ Social has been used successfully in communications providers, banks, finance organizations, on-line retailers and traditional retailers for a variety of purposes such as churn management, product recommendations, and fraud detection. 4 frost.com
  • 5. Frost & Sullivan This whitepaper illustrates two case studies of KXEN’s customers, MonotaRO and Mobilink, using the solution successfully. These two case studies show that KXEN’s “Today, marketers in solution is a user-friendly, rapid, and efficient tool and its native integration to the any organization company’s predictive capabilities powerfully enhance the analysis of customer base recognize the social behavior. value of their data for understanding 2. ANALYZING DATA-CENTRIC VERTICAL MARKETS WITH SOCIAL consumers' behavior NETWORK ANALYSIS and spotting business opportunities. Social A Brief Introduction on the Role of Social Data in Various Vertical Markets Network Analysis (SNA) is an advanced In a famous interview, Hal Varian, professor of Information Sciences, Business and technique that enables Economics at the University of California and Google’s chief economist, said: “I keep companies to analyze saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians.” The amount of social data and make data available in the economy and society is tremendous. Its growth is exponential. sense of it” Its value is unimaginable. The ability to extract this value, process it, interpret it, deliver it and use it for strategic decisions is the big challenge for any business today and in the future. Statisticians have coined the term “big data” to describe the explosion of huge amounts of data that various types of organizations are dealing with. The term describes data sets that are becoming increasingly complex and difficult to manage and analyze. The complexity of “big” data is driven by a variety of events happening in different industries, such as mobile phone calls, credit card swipes, website clicks and purchases in stores and virtual shops. In addition to that, “big data” has a strong social nature. The astonishing growth of social networks and digital communications devices and applications has extraordinarily empowered the word of mouth making organizations’ data inherently social. Today, marketers in any organization recognize the social value of their data for understanding consumers’ behavior and spotting business opportunities. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is an advanced technique that enables companies to analyze social data and make sense of it. An Introduction to Social Network Analysis Social network analysis is used to analyze customer base behavior and spot revenue opportunities. It is based on the concept of social networks, a set of relationships between entities (consumers, products, etc.). The social network is represented through a graph of nodes and links. Each node represents a customer or entity. Links represent the relationships between customers or between entities. Once the social network is built, social network analysis uses graph theory algorithms to detect and interpret social ties between nodes and groups of nodes. Typical analysis includes detection of specific communities and their structure as well as identification of different roles within the network and communities analysis. This information can then be used to optimize operational activities that can lead to cost reduction and new revenues streams. frost.com 5
  • 6. Frost & Sullivan Figure 1: The Social Network is a Set of Nodes and Links Source: KXEN The Use of SNA in Vertical Markets During the 1950s and 1960s, social network analysis was almost exclusively used in academic environments to research the behavior of specific social groups. But, only with the advent of digital social networks and the astonishing development of data computing did social network analysis become known outside academic environments. The communications industry, and primarily the mobile communications industry, started to understand the value of social network analysis. Mobile network operators’ data is naturally social. SNA has been used to understand the structure of the networks of mobile users and uses this analysis to re-design marketing and customer churn campaign. As the results in the communications industry revealed the power of SNA, other verticals have started looking at SNA for analyzing their customer base. Today, the applications of SNA have gone beyond telecoms and are used in banks, financial organizations, retailing organizations, online gaming organizations, and government, mainly in the areas of security. In general, every industry characterized by large event streams, and therefore rich of customer data and transaction data, can use SNA. Boosting Predictive Power with SNA Social network analysis does not just enable a more powerful understanding of social networks and communities, but it also empowers predictive models. SNA enables marketers to predict behavioral changes of communities, and also to identify specific communities of interest. The output of SNA, made of different social variables and aggregates of variables, is used to empower predictive modeling. For example, SNA can help mobile network operators predict the viral diffusion of churn, detecting the likelihood of customers to be influenced by recent churn behavior in their communities. 6 frost.com
  • 7. Frost & Sullivan 3. INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL – SNA SOLUTION BY KXEN Overview of InfiniteInsight™ Social KXEN launched its first social network analysis solution in 2009. KXEN’s approach to SNA got an immediate traction in various verticals, including communications, banking, and retail. Today, InfiniteInsight™ Social, largely relying on that experience, offers an intuitive and effective way of building and analyzing social networks. InfiniteInsight™ Social rapidly builds social networks independently of the size of the data. Once the social network is built, InfiniteInsight™ Social creates a number of social attributes, such as: • Social position of a node (centrality measures) • Network roles of the node (bridge, leader, local leader) • Social pressure and influence • Community profiles • Diffusion simulation These attributes are then used to describe and predict behavior of customers and communities of customers. The InfiniteInsight™ Social workflow is illustrated in Figure 2. Figure 2: InfiniteInsight™ Social Workflow Source: KXEN frost.com 7
  • 8. Frost & Sullivan 1. The user specifies the various network filters (SMS, voice, off-peak networks, etc.). 2. The corresponding filtered transactional data (CDRs or else) is loaded and social graphs are produced. 3. The user decides which interesting attributes to produce. 4. The user can run queries on the produced networks, modify them. 5. The corresponding variables are joined to the existing customer information, and a predictive model analyzing all attributes (including social ones) can be built with InfiniteInsight™ Modeler. InfiniteInsight™ has been successfully used in diverse industry contexts, from communications to banking, and retail. The Main Features of InfiniteInsight™ Social Social network analysis is largely based on graph theory. Its complexity has historically affected the speed of adoption of SNA outside academic environments. KXEN has developed InfiniteInsight™ Social with the aim to make SNA simple and accessible to professionals without a specific and detailed knowledge of the underlying mathematics. InfiniteInsight™ Social offers a very intuitive user interface for building and analyzing social networks. Despite this, the solution also presents various modules for advanced users of SNA. For example, InfiniteInsight™ Modeler and its best-in-class predictive technology enhances the value of InfiniteInsight™ Social, as it is able to quickly build predictive models based on a large number of social extra-variables. The idea is simple, but powerful. The combination of the two software modules does not only enable the user to identify the influencers present in that moment in the network, but to use that information to predict the influence that they will have on their communities’ behavior, as well as to predict individuals who are about to become influencers. The Benefits of InfiniteInsight™ Social The features of InfiniteInsight™ Social have clear benefits for the users: • Powerful predictive capabilities • User-friendly interface • Very low computational time when building social networks and rapidly creating social attributes • Detailed community detection and analysis 8 frost.com
  • 9. Frost & Sullivan But, InfiniteInsight™ Social users can gain more insights. They can easily create sub- networks by setting filters in the interface. They can set various conditions for link InfiniteInsight™ creation and different modes to explore social graphs. Some of the key features of Social is a fast, InfiniteInsight™ Social are listed below: scalable and dynamic software product with powerful visualization 1. InfiniteInsight™ Social has powerful visualization capabilities capabilities and • Offers both bottom-up and top-down graph exploration combined with the best-in-class KXEN • Switch to “Community mode” and depicts customer roles in the network predictive technology provides a large • Superimpose social graphs and pinpoint the differences in the graph spectrum of social evolution network capabilities for understanding and predicting social 2. InfiniteInsight™ Social is fast, scalable and dynamic influence across • Takes 20 minutes to load 16M nodes with 59M links diverse customer communities • Scales up with several million nodes and links, billions of CDRs rows 3. InfiniteInsight™ Social identifies “influencers” for specific business problems with a patented methodology 4. InfiniteInsight™ Social detects hidden links in your data and links individuals using multiple identities 5. InfiniteInsight™ Social’s unique approach is to combine SNA and predictive technology, using InfiniteInsight™ Modeler • The targeting accuracy is improved (usually by 50 percent-plus in the first decile) 6. InfiniteInsight™ Social is a software product, not a piece of software on top of a service; no out-sourcing of data or knowledge is required In conclusion, InfiniteInsight™ Social provides a spectrum of social network analysis capabilities so that you can understand social influence and behaviors across your customer communities. frost.com 9
  • 10. Frost & Sullivan 4. SNA IN THE COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY The Adoption of SNA in the Communications Industry The increasing penetration of communications networks and devices has driven the use of social network analysis (SNA) in the communications industry. This phenomenon has principally emerged in the mobile communications industry, where customer data has an explicit social nature. SNA was first employed intensively in developed mobile communications markets, including Western European and North American, where the number of mobile subscribers per head of population is typically more than 100 percent. Today, almost all Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in Europe and North America have either introduced SNA or have considerable experience in the use of SNA. The European and North American experience of SNA underlined the power of such solutions for mobile network operators, prompting the larger Asian MNOs to introduce SNA into their data analytics suites. Asia—particularly the Far East—is now a rapid adopter of social network analysis. Figure 3: SNA in Communications – State of Adoption Consolidating Growing Emerging Source: Frost & Sullivan 10 frost.com
  • 11. Frost & Sullivan The Applications of SNA in the Communications Industry “InfiniteInsight™ With mobile communications markets becoming highly saturated, mobile network Social puts the power operators started to observe ARPU declines and a migration of subscribers toward of social networks rival operators and service providers. The immediate desire of MNOs was to have analysis in-house” a better understanding of their customers’ behavior in order to reduce the impact of these negative developments. Jaroslaw Kosinski, Corporate Project Manager, TPSA MNOs have used a range of analytical tools for predictive purposes for some time. Poland. However, the accuracy of these models was largely unsatisfactory and, consequently, the churn management techniques were not effective. Social network analysis introduced the community perspective to the existing churn prevention methods. Using Call Detail Record (CDR) data, SNA detects and interprets communities of subscribers. This, in combination with predictive models, vastly improved churn management activities. The use of social network analysis with regards to churn management remains the key application within the communications industry. However, as mobile network operators’ experience of using SNA has evolved, the applications of SNA have moved toward different directions. MNOs are able to analyze specific churn management problems such as rotational churn. They are also able to perform detailed customer segmentation, community behavior analysis, detection of specific customers (i.e., multi-SIM users) and identification of community leaders or influencers. All of this has been used to design and optimize viral marketing campaigns for new products and services, refer-a-friend campaigns, and to detect fraud. The overall result is that an MNO can use SNA to both prevent revenue decline and spot new opportunities for ARPU growth. InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Communications Industry KXEN is a key provider of social network analysis solutions for the communications industry. KXEN combines social network analysis and predictive analytics to explain the social structure of the mobile network and uses its dynamics to better predict customer behavior and specific roles in the network. frost.com 11
  • 12. Frost & Sullivan InfiniteInsight™ Social brings that concept into the hands of communications providers, enabling them to: InfiniteInsight™ Social has been used in a large number of • Reduce churn communications • Identify specific roles in the social network providers across the • Pinpoint influencers world reaching • Optimize the viral adoption of new products and services excellent results in • Acquire new customers churn reduction and • Segment customers viral adoption of new • Detect rotational churners products and services • Identify and profile multi-SIM users • Gain insight on competition • Track past churners InfiniteInsight™ Social has performed the above tasks in a large number of communications providers across the world, reaching excellent results, such as in the example in Figure 4. Figure 4: InfiniteInsight™ Social Identifies Influencers in a Community of Mobile Subscribers The software built a social network of 14 million nodes in one hour. Using these results, the company was able to identify influencers with the potential to adopt new products three to seven times better than before using SNA . Source: KXEN 12 frost.com
  • 13. Frost & Sullivan 5. SNA IN THE BANKING AND FINANCE INDUSTRY The Adoption of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry Fraud detection has been the initial driver of adoption of social network analysis in the banking and financial services industry. Initially, the solution was tested in North American and Western European banks, where the cases of fraud from credit cards and debit cards were more frequent. However, the use of social network analysis rapidly spread in other financial organizations, such as money transfer companies, not necessarily located in the Western world, but also in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Today, it can be said that the value of social network analysis for fraud detection is recognized almost worldwide. However, the use of social network analysis for other business purposes has gained momentum in the past three years, particularly in North America, Europe, certain Asian markets and wealthy Middle East countries. Figure 5: SNA in Banking and Finance – State of Adoption Spread and using Spread and SNA for different exploring Emerging purposes different usages Source: Frost & Sullivan The Applications of SNA in the Banking and Financial Services Industry Social network analysis can be beneficial for banks and financial organizations in many activities of their business. Money transfers, check transactions or credit card purchases are the “links” building such social networks. As seen, fraud detection is an important application of SNA, but applications in customer relationship management (CRM) and risk management are gaining traction. frost.com 13
  • 14. Frost & Sullivan In the area of CRM, banks can use SNA for acquiring new customers, improving customer retention techniques, and cross-selling activities through viral marketing. InfiniteInsight™ SNA can identify networks of non-existing customers that are connected with Social can rapidly existing customers. This knowledge can optimize acquisition campaigns. In cross-sell address different tasks activities, communities of customers and relative roles, from influencers to for banks and other potential buyers, can be detected and their behavior can be predicted in order to financial optimize new product marketing campaigns. As in the communications industry, organizations such as SNA can help financial organizations reduce churn rates by combining the analysis customer relationship of the social networks with the power of predictive models. management, risk management and fraud detection InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Banking and Financial Services Industry InfiniteInsight™ Social can rapidly and easily address different tasks for banks and other financial organizations. Using transaction data, the KXEN solution builds social networks based on direct links—bank transfers and check transactions—and on indirect links—linking customers to products purchased and agencies. These networks are then analyzed for addressing problems in customer relationship management, risk management and fraud detection. InfiniteInsight™ Social has successfully enabled banks and financial companies to: • Optimize new customer acquisition campaigns like refer-a-friend • Detect communities of interest for new product launch and communities of risk for churn prevention • Identify customers with high potential for purchasing new products • Identify customer with high potential of churning • Identify influencers • Detect and predict potential credit defaults • Identify fraudsters and communities of fraudsters Figure 6: InfiniteInsight™ Social Identifies High Communities of Fraud The chart shows communities of merchants linked by credit cards. The bigger the community is in this graph, the more merchants are in it; the closer it is to red, the more fraud there is in it. Fraud! Source: KXEN 14 frost.com
  • 15. Frost & Sullivan 6. SNA IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY The Adoption of SNA in the Retail Industry The retail industry has different sources of customer data. These can take the form of credit card transactions and information from locality programs in traditional outlets and stores to digital communities’ data in online shopping environments. Social network analysis helps retail companies make sense of all this data for better understanding their customer base and for better satisfying their purchasing habits and desires. In fact, customer segmentation and product recommendation are areas where social network analysis is used. This is happening primarily in Europe, North America, Australia and part of Asia, such as South Korea and Japan. Figure 7: SNA in Retail – State of Adoption Increasing use of SNA Emerging use of SNA Source: Frost & Sullivan frost.com 15
  • 16. Frost & Sullivan The Applications of SNA in the Retail Industry InfiniteInsight™ Social enhances The key aim of using SNA in the retail industry is to understand which products product interest customers the most and which is the best way to recommend these recommendations by products. Searching a product from numerous choices and then making a decision introducing product can become a tough task. Retail companies have used different recommendation communities as a agents to make that easier for customers. However, many of these agents do not building block of the take into consideration the social nature of the shopping. In the recommendation recommendation rules. context, the interest of two friends tends to be related and, therefore, their purchasing modes can be similar. Social network analysis is able to detect patterns of relationships between individuals and between products and individuals, and all this information can improve recommendation techniques. InfiniteInsight™ Social for the Retail Industry InfiniteInsight™ Social aims to enhance product recommendation by introducing product communities as a building block of the recommendation rules. The analysis of these communities can reveal relationships between products that were not possible to detect with other techniques. In addition to that, the analysis of these communities can identify influential products, but also highlight other types of products such as the not-so-frequent products. Recommendation rules can then be built around influential products, but also around other types of products and entities relevant for the retailer (“bridge products,” for example). All this can be done in a scalable way and faster than any other method. In addition to that, InfiniteInsight™ Social visualizes the rules, and this appears to be extremely helpful for companies. The overall approach of InfiniteInsight™ Social to the development of recommendation rules is the following: • Two products are linked because they share some common features— clicks, purchases, bids, tags and others • The software analyzes these links and then creates rules • It then identifies communities of products • Finally, personalized recommendations are built using the community of interest each authenticated customer belongs to (see graph below) 16 frost.com
  • 17. Frost & Sullivan Figure 8: InfiniteInsight™ Social Detects Communities of Interest for Product Recommendations “InfiniteInsight™ Social is increasing If the number of customers purchasing product A is greater than the average, then that stickiness on our community of customers is called “the community of product A.” Therefore, product A website by can be recommended to all of the community. personalizing dynamic movie recommendations. For us it is the best choice we made this year.” Frédéric Krebs, COO Allociné France. Source: KXEN InfiniteInsight™ Social has been successfully used for the generation of recommendation rules in various retail contexts, but its power also has been demonstrated for identifying influencers for detecting habits of shopping communities. 7. CUSTOMER CASE – MONOTARO – SEGMENTING AND TARGETING CUSTOMERS WITH INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL Overview of MonotaRO MonotaRO was established in 2000 with the aim to become a leading player in the Japanese market for direct marketing of indirect materials and consumable items for enterprises through the Internet, fax, and the phone. Since then, the market growth of the company has been exceptional. At the end of 2010, the total revenues were 22bn Yen, e.g., about 300mln US$. MonotaRO is also publicly quoted on Tokyo Stock Exchange. frost.com 17
  • 18. Frost & Sullivan The number of SKUs (items) available for MonotaRO’s clients has grown continuously over the years, reaching 1,500,000. These items are grouped in 60 categories, and they are available for 640,000 customers. The growth rate in terms of new customers is also astonishing: 10,000 new customers per month. This pace has made the customer growth rate almost exponential, as shown in the chart. Figure 9: MonotaRO Customer Growth Over The Period 2002-2011 700,000 600,000 Number of Customers 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1Q 1Q 3Q 002 1Q 002 3Q 003 1Q 003 3Q 04 1Q 004 3Q 005 1Q 005 3Q 06 1Q 006 3Q 007 1Q 007 Q 008 1Q 008 Q 009 1Q 009 Q 010 10 20 20 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Time Source: MonotaRO MonotaRO’s Challenges with a Growing Customer Base As the customer base was rapidly growing, MonotaRO started to face the challenges to cope with a large customer base and a vast product portfolio. The main concern regarded the risk to misinterpret or miss customers’ needs. At that time, MonotaRO’s customers chose their products from the catalog, but there were not appropriate marketing tools in place for advising customers about new items. MonotaRO needed a systematic marketing approach for providing customers with personalized recommendations without being invasive and inappropriate. In 2005, MonotaRO introduced a data analytics system based on IBM’s SPSS. The aim was to identify customers’ lists for specific marketing activities. However, the approach soon appeared to be time consuming and difficult for a company that did not employ any statisticians. The only activity MonotaRO could do was identify groups of customers for delivering catalogs once a year. Clearly, the timeline was not satisfactory. 18 frost.com
  • 19. Frost & Sullivan InfiniteInsight™ Changed MonotaRO’s Approach to Customers MonotaRO decided to introduce InfiniteInsight™ in May 2008. The impact was immediate. It took just three months to deploy, and in August 2008, MonotaRO started its daily operations with the predictive analytics solution. First off, IntiniteInsight™ was easy to use. MonotaRO did not need any employees with a statistics background. Existing MonotaRO’s employees were in charge of InfiniteInsight™, and they became familiar with software without major difficulties. Today, MonotaRO is able to produce 42 propensity models in a month, practically a revolution. One of the first effects of this revolution was the creation of specific catalogs for specific groups of customers. Before the introduction of InfiniteInsight™, MonotaRO had only one catalog with nearly 1,700 pages. InfiniteInsight™ enabled MonotaRO to segment their customer base per interest and create several catalogs. Currently, MonotaRO develops seven catalogs for a total of 4,000 pages. The customer segmentation also enables MonotaRO to target specific customers with advertising materials on new products and new offers. Figure 10: MonotaRO’s Catalog Shift Safety, cleaning, Tool, measuring, FA, machine material handling welding parts previous big catalog 1700P Automotive parts Construction Laboratory items Source: MonotaRO items In 2009, the predictive analysis introduced by InfiniteInsight™ was combined with UNICA, a campaign management tool. This combination makes the marketing cycle, from planning to measurement, short in time and almost entirely automatated. frost.com 19
  • 20. Frost & Sullivan InfiniteInsight™ Social for Enhancing Customer Segmentation and Product Recommendations MonotaRO is able to build better product categorization four In 2010, MonotaRO introduced InfiniteInsight™ Social to empower its marketing times faster and define cycle with the use of Social Network Analysis (SNA). SNA has enabled the company product to improve the detection of communities of customers who purchase common recommendation rules products and communities of products which tend to be purchased by similar that are relevant for customers. This information has enabled MonotaRO to improve customer customers. segmentation and create associate rules for recommendations. Conclusions InfiniteInsight™ has played a critical role in the growth of MonotaRO. It has transformed the way the company analyzes and engages with its customers. Today, MonotaRO detects communities of customers, designs marketing campaigns and measures their effects on a daily basis. With the use of SNA, MonotaRO has introduced another level of refinement to their customer base analysis, improving recommendation rules. 8. CUSTOMER CASE – THE SUCCESSFUL CASE OF MOBILINK – USING INFINITEINSIGHT™ SOCIAL IN EMERGING COMMUNICATIONS MARKET Brief Overview on Mobilink In April 2011, the number of mobile subscribers in Pakistan reached 108 million, bringing the mobile penetration in the country close to 60 percent, one of the highest penetrations in the South Asian region. The market is expected to further grow rapidly, creating opportunities for the large competitive landscape. In fact, the number of mobile network operators in Pakistan is surprisingly high: six GSM operators, three CDMA providers and also WiMAX providers. In this crowded landscape, Mobilink is the undisputable market leader, with 32 million customers. Two key features of the subscriber base in Pakistan justify the high number of mobile network operators in the market. The subscriber base is highly volatile. They move across operators looking for better deals, leaving a mobile network operator and coming back to the same one when there is a good offer in terms of service and pricing. Therefore, the churn rate is very high. The other relevant feature is the multi-SIM phenomenon (whereby a customer will have multiple phones, typically to take advantage of new customer pricing with each purchase). Pakistan mobile market is estimated to have between 30 percent and 40 percent subscribers with multi-SIM. 20 frost.com
  • 21. Frost & Sullivan Why Mobilink Needs Social Network Analysis In the complex mobile communications market described previously, understanding the behavior of the subscriber base becomes essential for reducing churn, better serving customers and identifying new revenues. Understanding the attitude of the single subscriber is not enough. Instead, gaining insights on the relationships between subscribers is extremely valuable. In fact, information and analysis about the social sphere of subscribers provide insights on how these subscribers are influenced by others, if they feel the pressure from other subscribers and if they influence other subscribers in adopting a new service and purchasing a new product. This information helps Mobilink retain customers, acquire new ones, and promote new products. Mobilink soon realized that social network analysis is the only tool that enables the development of such detailed knowledge about the subscriber base. How Mobilink Uses InfiniteInsight™ Social Mobilink started using InfiniteInsight™ in 2007. The initial aim was to segment the customer base and develop predictive modeling on those segments. Soon, Mobilink appreciated the flexibility and usability of the KXEN software solution and it has recently looked at the combined use of social network analysis with predictive modeling using InfiniteInsight™ Social. The use of InfiniteInsight™ Social has enabled Mobilink to address two key business challenges: increasing the accuracy of prediction models for churn and better promoting the adoption of value-added services. In the case of churn, Mobilink can predict that within the top 10 percent of subscribers, 50 percent of them are potential churners. The improvement in accuracy is shown in the chart below. Figure 11: Comparing SNA-Based Churn Model with Other Models Random Inactivity Based Model NextGen Perfect 100 Cumulative Churn Percentage 90 80 10% Base - 50% Churners 70 60 50 16% Base - 28% Churners 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 Percentage Population Source: Mobilink frost.com 21
  • 22. Frost & Sullivan In the case of the adoption of value-added services, the results show that for each targeted influencer, you could bring four potential adopters. Mobilink has seen an eight-fold increase in campaign response Despite the positive results, the implementation of SNA in Mobilink is just in the rates using predictive beginning stages. The market leader in Pakistan has at least three clear objectives analytics from to achieve in the near future. InfiniteInsight™. It expects those numbers to increase when 1. Using insights on the subscriber base for acquiring critical users and likely combined with the use influencers from competitors. of social variables derived from 2. Preventing the churn of influencers from Mobilink network. InfiniteInsight™ Social. 3. Stimulating influencers in the area of value-added services with new content, products and promotions in order to enable virality in the communities. Conclusions Mobilink is strongly aware that subscriber data is a key competitive asset for managing a volatile subscriber base. The market leader also recognizes that exploring the social sphere of subscribers is more insightful than just analyzing behavior of single subscribers. In light of all this, Mobilink has adopted InfiniteInsight™ Social for looking into communities of subscribers for preventing churns, identifying influencers and enabling product virality. The company has seen an eight-fold increase in campaign response rates using predictive analytics from InfiniteInsight™. It expects those numbers to increase when combined with the use of social variables derived from InfiniteInsight™ Social. For Mobilink, this is just the beginning of a valuable journey in the power of social network analysis. 22 frost.com
  • 23. Frost & Sullivan 8. CONCLUSION We live in a data-centric world. Data describes business processes, and individual and community behaviors. The analysis of this data is fundamental to making business operations more efficient and more profitable. Social network analysis is an intelligent tool that looks inside user behavior and communities, and in combination with predictive analytic techniques, allows businesses to identify patterns and predict trends, regardless of context. InfiniteInsight™ Social from KXEN is a software product that makes this possible in a user-friendly, rapid and efficient way, and its native integration to the company’s predictive capabilities is a unique and powerful solution. frost.com 23
  • 24. London Oxford Silicon Valley 4, Grosvenor Gardens, 4100 Chancellor Court 331 E. Evelyn Ave. Suite 100 London SWIW ODH,UK Oxford Business Park Mountain View, CA 94041 Tel 44(0)20 7730 3438 Oxford, OX4 2GX, UK Tel 650.475.4500 Fax 44(0)20 7730 3343 Tel: +44 (0) 1865 398600 Fax 650.475.1570 Fax: +44 (0) 1865 398601 +44 (0)20 7730 3438 • enquiries@frost.com http://www.frost.com ABOUT FROST & SULLIVAN Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, partners with clients to accelerate their growth. The company's TEAM Research, Growth Consulting, and Growth Team Membership™ empower clients to create a growth-focused culture that generates, evaluates, and implements effective growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan employs over 50 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses, and the investment community from more than 40 offices on six continents. For more information about Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Partnership Services, visit http://www.frost.com. For information regarding permission, write to: Frost & Sullivan Sullivan House 4 Grosvenor Gardens London SW1W 0DH United Kingdom Auckland Dubai Mumbai Sophia Antipolis Bangkok Frankfurt Manhattan Sydney Beijing Hong Kong Oxford Taipei Bengaluru Istanbul Paris Tel Aviv Bogotá Jakarta Rockville Centre Tokyo Buenos Aires Kolkata San Antonio Toronto Cape Town Kuala Lumpur São Paulo Warsaw Chennai London Seoul Washington, DC Colombo Mexico City Shanghai Delhi / NCR Milan Silicon Valley Dhaka Moscow Singapore