Edelman Cloverleaf™ Forecast

EDELMAN CLOVERLEAF FORECAST
January 2016 Ecosystem Update and Storytelling Implications
©2016 Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. All rights reserved.

‣ This forecast reflects Edelman’s latest thinking on the
digital information ecosystem and the convergence of
content publishers and technology platforms
‣ The research is based on dozens of interviews
conducted across six parts of the Edelman Cloverleaf™
‣ It is a “weather report” that provides guidance on key
developments that can impact the lifecycle of a story
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This POV is divided into three sections:
‣ Ecosystem Disruptions - changes to information flows
‣ Cloverleaf Considerations - what’s now, new and next
‣ Storytelling Implications - ways to extend a narrative
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ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTIONS
4 ©2016 Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. All rights reserved.
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ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTIONS
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‣ There are at least three significant macro trends that are
influencing how content is discovered, consumed and monetized
‣ These play a significant role in what kinds of stories actually will
reach their intended audience
‣ These ecosystem disruptions don’t just impact publishers, but
arguably any content creator that hopes to deliver a narrative
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MOBILE PERSONALIZATION
First, 2015 data from comScore shows
dramatic shifts in content discovery:
‣ Over 60% of all US time spent with
digital media is now via mobile devices
‣ Most user time is spent in just five
apps. Facebook and Google dominate
‣ News, therefore, is highly filtered
through the lens of one’s friends
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MEDIA FRAGMENTATION
There are also significant changes in
how information is now consumed:
‣ Content is incredibly infinite
‣ Attention is mostly finite
‣ Intake is largely in sound bites
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ADVERTISER FRUSTRATION
Last but not least, advertisers are facing
major challenges and these disrupt how
news content is predominantly monetized:
‣ Ad blocking has moved from curiosity to
mainstream, particularly on mobile
‣ Marketers and media are divided how to
define and measure video ad impressions
‣ Inflated traffic data has created distrust
in the display advertising supply chain
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CLOVERLEAF CONSIDERATIONS
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EDELMAN CLOVERLEAF
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‣ The Edelman Cloverleaf reflects the firm’s holistic view of the
evolving media / content ecosystem. It first debuted in 2011
‣ It’s a birds-eye view that informs the development of
multichannel communications marketing strategies
‣ The framework, while seemingly organized, is nuanced. The
various classifications for many channels are blurry - e.g.
YouTube could sit in different sections. It’s meant as a guide
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EDELMAN CLOVERLEAF 2016
‣ The Cloverleaf in 2016 is now comprised of two spheres of
influence: technology platforms and content publishers.
Platforms, by far, dominate both in time spent and ad dollars
‣ The updated framework also takes into account that there are
now three pathways to digital content: direct, search and social
‣ The schematic highlights the need for building integrated
programs that mix both tried-and-true and emerging strategies
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SOCIAL
What’s now…
‣ Social media includes all major
networks and messaging apps
‣ Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat
and more dominate the day
‣ Many are experimenting in
news: Twitter Moments,
Snapchat Discover, etc.
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SOCIAL
What’s new and next…
‣ The relationship between
publishers and platforms is
growing cozier as the latter now
offers both a viable means of
distribution and monetization
‣ Facebook Instant Articles is
rolling out on Android and iOS
with more than 300 publishers

SEARCH
What’s now…
‣ Search engines include Google,
Bing, Yahoo and Wikipedia
‣ Google continues to dominate
‣ Mobile queries have surpassed
desktop-based keyword
searches, creating a big shift in
the search engine result pages
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SEARCH
‣ Google Accelerated Mobile Pages is
launching in early 2016
‣ The open source effort will speed
up and improve the news discovery
experience on the mobile web
‣ The program may make content
from participating publishers
potentially more visible than others

What’s now…
‣ Curators are platforms that
deliver personalized news
‣ Apple News, a newcomer,
already has 40M users.
Others include Flipboard,
Medium (an op-ed hub), and
email newsletters like REDEF
CURATORS
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‣ Mobile has reinvigorated
podcasting. Media companies
like CBS, Slate and others
are making serious bets on it
‣ Curators like Pandora are
syndicating popular programs
CURATORS

What’s now…
‣ Influencers are digitally
savvy creators that hand
craft content for platforms -
particularly visual narratives
‣ Many video influencers are
federated into networks that
require a paid budget
INFLUENCERS
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‣ There remain earned-centric
ways to work with some
influencers – especially
hungry newcomers
‣ LinkedIn is fast becoming a
hub for business influencers,
including employee voices
INFLUENCERS
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What’s now…
‣ Media includes traditional
and digital-native brands
‣ Facebook is now their
primary source of traffic,
followed by Google. Direct
visits have dwindled
MEDIA
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‣ Some publishers are building
their brands via so-called
enterprise journalism
‣ They are betting that if a
body of work is high value,
scarce and high quality it
will find an audience
MEDIA
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What’s now…
‣ Brands continue go direct to
audiences with content
‣ Scale can be a challenge,
unless the topic is high
interest or content is
amplified via paid media
BRANDS
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‣ Branded content will need to
be built with earned-centric,
social-by-design approach in
order to scale
‣ Content can ignite a virtuous
cycle of earned media and
social conversations
BRANDS
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STORYTELLING IMPLICATIONS
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DEVELOP SOCIAL STORYLINES
‣ Social media is now the primary means of means of news discovery
‣ News you read is often different than news you say you read.
Journalism is now social currency for billions of consumers
‣ This is encouraging the majority journalists to create more sharable /
social-friendly storylines (76% - 2015 Edelman/Muck Rack survey)
‣ Communications marketing programs need to do the same in embracing
both a social-by-design as well as a linear and logical style
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SCALE SURFACE AREA
‣ Somewhere there’s usually someone or something that has more
distribution power than you do. Partner with them
‣ Embrace distribution-centric thinking to help programs scale
‣ Paid programs like sponsored content and video influencer
programs can increase a program’s digital surface area
‣ Consider emphasizing publishers that are “all in” on Facebook
Instant Articles, Snapchat Discover and Apple News
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THINK OWNED TO EARNED
‣ Content for content sake isn’t enough. “If you build it, they will
come.” doesn't work as well in a mobile-centric age
‣ However, original content is increasingly the “lead domino” that
knocks over others and begins a virtuous cycle of earned media
‣ Content assets should be crafted with an earned media mindset,
holistic systems thinking and, when possible, have paid
amplification support behind it for this to work
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HAND CRAFT NARRATIVES
‣ When in Rome, do as the Romans do
‣ A singular narrative should be hand-crafted to fit in the spaces
where it will be discovered, shared and consumed
‣ Digital influencers are a good model to follow. They take the
same story and often tell it in three different ways for three
different visual platforms - YouTube, Snapchat and Instagram
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CREATE CANONICAL CONTENT
‣ High-interest / useful, high-quality content that’s unavailable
anywhere else can often find an audience
‣ Much like reporters are embracing “enterprise journalism,”
brands should look at investing in similar canonical assets
‣ Original research / intellectual property follows this formula.
When done well it earns attention on merit and can become a
repeatable content franchise
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Platforms:
Three types of
technology hubs where
most content discovery
now starts. These
dominate the digital day
and include social
networks, messaging
services, search engines
and personalized news
curators.
Publishers:
Three overlapping
groups of content
creators. These include
traditional and digital-
native news
organizations, platform-
savvy influencers plus
content and digital
experiences built by
brands.
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For more information contact:
Steve Rubel
Chief Content Strategist
steve.rubel@edelman.com
All sources interviewed appeared as guests on Steve Rubel’s
CBS Local Content Convergence podcast
(http://play.it/convergence)
®

Edelman Cloverleaf™ Forecast

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