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What constitutes a simple, reliable, message for outcome in a rare disease? Cystic Fibrosis in Europe Anil Mehta FRCP FRCPCH University of Dundee, Scotland An argument for governments from the ECFRG   For full details see:  www.lancet.com  (header section: audio; march20) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
50,000 years ago    F508, F508del or Phe508del We are here 2010 - 10K  3 base pairs lost on chromosome  7 in a single gene  cftr Imagine the first modern human carrier of CF Fibrogenicum (- us or - a) - Population
Today’s Europeans are the survivors of the 25% amongst which fibrogenicum is a super-survivor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Phe508del/Phe508del
~30,000 Registered CF in Europe CZ EuroCareCF  partnered with  European CF Registry ECFS EU Dundee Data Centre Legal East data hub  –  Milan Macek ECFS www.eurocarecf.eu Work Package 2 2006 FP6
Each Bar shows a 5 year age band, except last one 12% Pre-school % ~1500 Missing pre-school First school Teenage children ~ 3550
What Message does the pattern provide? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Severe disease All Europe patients ALL CF 44% Common Type Phe508 Del homozygotes 96% by 10 yr 98% by 15 years 2% Phe508del homozygotes This common form arose once, presents in childhood  almost always creating a marker for CF diagnostic ability and eliminates European geographic differences
Setting Up the Hypothesis on Demography   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How can the EU use this information at a country level to measure outcome? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Country 1 EU $£ € +++ Country 2 NON-EU MONEY  ~ + See McCormick et al 2010 Lancet
%  of severely affected patients by age All CF patients at same age Country 1  2 Severe-common CF to All-CF ratio by age P<0.00001 P<0.000005
1. McCormick et al  Lancet 2010:  sets the target 2. Sims et al Lancet 2007:  sets the costs 3. Jagger et al Lancet 2008:  sets the context All CF Common Phe508deleted form Western Europe, EU 2003 Non-EU Now we have both a target and the costs   Rate of Change by succeeding decade We have a costed target
50,000 years ago    D  F508 We are a CF legacy 2010 BC - 10K  75% died before 6 years of age Genetically fit Fibrogenicum super-survived dystentry, typhoid, pneumonia, TB, malaria etc - We should thank patients with CF for suffering on our behalf Treharne et al 2009 Febs Lett CF and smallpox
In Rare Diseases, Demographics  are  Powerful if… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion Margaret Fraser…………………..…………………. someone who knows data Gita Mehta…………………………someone who knows  project management Milan Macek…………………someone who has a  network  (through genetics) David Sheppard…………………………………………. manage  the resources Funding……………………………………….……………… EU FP6 EuroCareCF www.eurocarecf.eu www.cystic-fibrosis.org.uk SKILL MIX IS THE KEY: J McCormick MD Register SKILL MIX Standards Legal Framework
Skill Mix – will differ

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Session 8 anil_mehta

  • 1.
  • 2. 50,000 years ago    F508, F508del or Phe508del We are here 2010 - 10K  3 base pairs lost on chromosome 7 in a single gene cftr Imagine the first modern human carrier of CF Fibrogenicum (- us or - a) - Population
  • 3.
  • 4. ~30,000 Registered CF in Europe CZ EuroCareCF partnered with European CF Registry ECFS EU Dundee Data Centre Legal East data hub – Milan Macek ECFS www.eurocarecf.eu Work Package 2 2006 FP6
  • 5. Each Bar shows a 5 year age band, except last one 12% Pre-school % ~1500 Missing pre-school First school Teenage children ~ 3550
  • 6.
  • 7. Severe disease All Europe patients ALL CF 44% Common Type Phe508 Del homozygotes 96% by 10 yr 98% by 15 years 2% Phe508del homozygotes This common form arose once, presents in childhood almost always creating a marker for CF diagnostic ability and eliminates European geographic differences
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. % of severely affected patients by age All CF patients at same age Country 1 2 Severe-common CF to All-CF ratio by age P<0.00001 P<0.000005
  • 11. 1. McCormick et al Lancet 2010: sets the target 2. Sims et al Lancet 2007: sets the costs 3. Jagger et al Lancet 2008: sets the context All CF Common Phe508deleted form Western Europe, EU 2003 Non-EU Now we have both a target and the costs Rate of Change by succeeding decade We have a costed target
  • 12. 50,000 years ago    D  F508 We are a CF legacy 2010 BC - 10K  75% died before 6 years of age Genetically fit Fibrogenicum super-survived dystentry, typhoid, pneumonia, TB, malaria etc - We should thank patients with CF for suffering on our behalf Treharne et al 2009 Febs Lett CF and smallpox
  • 13.
  • 14. Conclusion Margaret Fraser…………………..…………………. someone who knows data Gita Mehta…………………………someone who knows project management Milan Macek…………………someone who has a network (through genetics) David Sheppard…………………………………………. manage the resources Funding……………………………………….……………… EU FP6 EuroCareCF www.eurocarecf.eu www.cystic-fibrosis.org.uk SKILL MIX IS THE KEY: J McCormick MD Register SKILL MIX Standards Legal Framework
  • 15. Skill Mix – will differ

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank the organisers of the conference for the opportunity to speak. Introduce yourself. I’d like to show you the first release of some exciting new European Registry data, and at nearly 30,000 CF patients, surely one of the biggest studies you’ll hear this week.
  2. Thank the organisers of the conference for the opportunity to speak. Introduce yourself. I’d like to show you the first release of some exciting new European Registry data, and at nearly 30,000 CF patients, surely one of the biggest studies you’ll hear this week.