This presentation by Dr. Embry reviews simple methods of applied science that can be used for developing and proving

1. Dennis D. Embry,
Ph.D., President/
CEO, PAXIS
Institute Being
CADCA,
Washington, DC,
everyday
February 11,
2008 scientists
in communities
www.paxis.org
1-520-299-6770
Copyright © 2009, PAXIS Institute. All rights reserved. Simple Gifts, ™ Evidence-Based Kernels™
and KERNELS™ are Trademarks of PAXIS Institute, licensed to Simple Gifts, Inc.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 1

2. “If your result needs a
Using powerful, statistician, then you should
practical and design a better experiment”
simple Ernest Rutherford
quotes (Baron
experimental Rutherford of Nelson.
New Zealander born
ways to prove British Chemist who
laid the groundwork
that prevention is for the development
of nuclear physics by
happening in investigating
radioactivity. Nobel
Prize in 1908.
communities. 1871-1937)
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 2

3. Let’s practice identifying types of
measurable actions (behaviors)
Behavior =
Reliably measurable actions
(frequency, duration and/or intensity)
of a person in a specific environment.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 3

4. Behavior has
A) Frequency
Vote
B) Duration
C) Intensity
D) All of the above
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 4

5. An example of frequency at school
is
A) A student cursing on the
PA Vote
B) 6 suspensions per week
C) A lock-down for 45
minutes
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 5

6. An example of frequency in the
community is
A) 5 out of 20 times clerks
sell alcohol to minors last Vote
month
B) The student keg-party
lasted for 4.5 hours
C) The car crash involving a
DUI killed four people
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 6

7. An example of duration at school is
A) The student slept through
two class periods Vote
B) Attendance this month
was 87.3%
C) Half of the kids on
probation got all F’s at
school
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 7

8. An example of duration in
community is
A) The members of the gang
were charged with with 16 Vote
felonies
B) The arson will close the
Boy’s & Girl’s Club for two
weeks
C) The arson cost $350K
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 8

9. An example of intensity at school is
A) Student shoots and
wounds two students. Vote
B) 14% of the students did
not turn in homework
today.
C) The students created a
disturbance for 15 minutes
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 9

10. An example of intensity in
community is
A) A police offer killed by
meth addict after 45 Vote
minute car crash
B) The average zoo visitor
spends 2.5 hours
C) The police had 245
service calls last week.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 10

11. Before and after trend line on
neighborhood impact by our coalition
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 11

12. Trend-line for humorous warnings
on binge drinking
No Warnings Humorous Warnings
20
16
Percentage
12
8
4
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12

13. Reversal design to reduce bullying
and aggression
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 13

14. Reversal design to improve seeking
treatment
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 14

15. Tuesday, December 7, 2010 15

16. Reward &
Baseline After Reward and Reminder
60%
Wyoming
Percentage of Illegal or Non-Compliant Tobacco Sales to Minors
Reminder:
50%
40%
30%
Everyday 20%
scientist 10%
results
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
60%
Wisconsin
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 16

17. 20.0% 8.0%
15.0% 6.0%
10.0% 4.0%
5.0% Youth Who Smoked During the Last 30 Days 2.0% Youth Who Smoked Every Day the Last 30 Days
Reward &
0.0% Baseline Reward and Reminder Baseline Reward and Reminder
45.0% 18.0%
18.0%
Wyoming
Wisconsin Wyoming
Wisconsin
40.0%
40.0% 16.0%
16.0%
35.0%
35.0% 14.0%
14.0%
Reminder: 30.0%
30.0%
25.0%
25.0%
20.0%
20.0%
12.0%
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
8.0%
15.0%
15.0% 6.0%
6.0%
10.0%
10.0% 4.0%
4.0%
5.0%
5.0% 2.0%
Everyday
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
18.0%
18.0%
Wisconsin
United States Wisconsin
United States
40.0%
40.0% 16.0%
16.0%
scientist
35.0%
35.0% 14.0%
14.0%
30.0%
30.0% 12.0%
12.0%
25.0%
25.0% 10.0%
10.0%
results
20.0%
20.0% 8.0%
8.0%
15.0%
15.0% 6.0%
6.0%
10.0% 4.0%
10.0% 4.0%
5.0% 2.0%
5.0% 2.0%
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
18.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
United States United States
40.0% 16.0%
= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States
35.0% 14.0%
30.0% 12.0%
25.0% 10.0%
20.0% 8.0%
15.0% 6.0%
10.0% 4.0%
5.0% 2.0%
Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control Source: YRBS, US Centers for Disease Control
0.0% 0.0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
= Trend = Wyoming = Wisconsin =United States
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 17

18. Survival analysis to show long-term
advantage of a strategy
100
Percent Not Using Drugs
75
50
25
Standard Community Treatment
Prize Bowl for Recovery
0
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 18

19. Forecasting for policy and mobilization
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 19

20. Become an
everyday scientist
Join us at www.paxis.org sign up for our blogs
and other presentations.
Download materials that will be added over
time to help you become an everyday
scientist.
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Thank you.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010 20