The document discusses dialogues around shared waters in the Nile Basin and how to adapt to uncertainties. It covers: 1) The importance of dialogues in facilitating cooperation over the transboundary Nile River between states and communities. 2) The role of institutions like the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Nile Basin Discourse (NBD) in establishing dialogue frameworks. 3) The many challenges and uncertainties facing water management in the basin, like population growth, climate change, and different country priorities, that dialogues need to help navigate.

1. “Dialogues of the Transboundary Shared Waters in the
Nile Basin-Adapting to Certain Uncertainties “
Donald Kasongi

2. Dialogues
Dialogues are about
institutions and/or People
Dialogues not and end
issues
Issues driving the
dialogue(s)
Value systems
Convergence
/Divergence

3. Transboundary dialogues in the Nile Basin
• The Nile is one of at least 310 of
the world’s river basins shared by
multiple state sovereignties and
communities.
• Dialogues in the basin have
increasingly become a critical but
hidden pillar for inclusive
management of transboundary
shared waters
• NBI/NBD mobilising dialogues and
promoting pathways towards
binding cooperative agreements
across sovereign states.

4. Establishment of
NBI
1999
Basin level
Collaboration
Basin /Sub Basin
MoU
Establishment
of NBD
2001
Basin level
MoU
NBI/NBD dialogue framework

5. Institutions
Mandate
Basin
National /Sub –
basin
Vision
Basin
National/Sub-basin
/Subnational
Common features
Water Livelihoods Equity Subsidiarity Stakeholder
engagement

6. NBI
NBI/NBD
Mandate
10+ Social
contracts .
600+ Civic
networks
Riparian sovereign
states
NBI/NELSAP/ENTR
O
Vision
Voices of riparian
communities
NBD

7. Institutional architecture and dialogues
• Transboundary water governance
organizations
• Serve as platforms for facilitating water
diplomacy, building trust and
cooperation
• Focus-Sustainable Resources
Management in the Basin
• But sovereignty vs weak collaboration
www.nilebasindiscourse.org
In this paper we explore whether scenarios in the form
of stories can contribute to strategic foresight on Nile
Cooperatio
n . The research questio
n that we seek to
answer is: What are the benefit
s and risks of plausible
future changes in the Nile Basin by 2050 and how these
benefit
s
and risks will affect Nile Cooperatio
n ? To
answer this questio
n , we will analyse how scenarios of
the plausible futures of the Nile Basin can contribute to
strategic foresight on plausible Nile Cooperatio
n benefit
s
and risks. Although the conclusions apply to the Nile Basin
and cannot be juxtaposed on other river basins; we know
that the issues that the paper addresses are generally
recognized in various river basins. It is our hope that this
artic
l
e will contribute to developing a better understanding
of the extent to which scenarios can be used in river basin
governance to sharpen strategic foresight.
Further studies will involve analyzing the uptake of the
scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperatio
n
through benefit and risk sharing. This will entail analyzing
the pre-conditio
n
s for water resources managers and
decision-makers to move away from short-term towards
medium and long-term thinking and planning so as to
effectively prepare for the future. There will also be a
further analysis of whether the insights produced from
the Nile basin scenarios are util
i z ed by the Nile Basin
instit
u t io
n
s
and if the strategic foresight has helped in
making better long-term plans and decisions on effective
governance and equitable and reasonable util
i z atio
n .
www.nilebasindiscourse.org
In this paper we explore whether scenarios in the form
of stories can contribute to strategic foresight on Nile
Cooperatio
n . The research questio
n that we seek to
answer is: What are the benefit
s and risks of plausible
future changes in the Nile Basin by 2050 and how these
benefit
s
and risks will affect Nile Cooperatio
n ? To
answer this questio
n , we will analyse how scenarios of
the plausible futures of the Nile Basin can contribute to
strategic foresight on plausible Nile Cooperatio
n benefit
s
and risks. Although the conclusions apply to the Nile Basin
and cannot be juxtaposed on other river basins; we know
that the issues that the paper addresses are generally
recognized in various river basins. It is our hope that this
artic
l
e will contribute to developing a better understanding
of the extent to which scenarios can be used in river basin
governance to sharpen strategic foresight.
Further studies will involve analyzing the uptake of the
scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperatio
n
through benefit and risk sharing. This will entail analyzing
the pre-conditio
n
s for water resources managers and
decision-makers to move away from short-term towards
medium and long-term thinking and planning so as to
effectively prepare for the future. There will also be a
further analysis of whether the insights produced from
the Nile basin scenarios are util
i z ed by the Nile Basin
instit
u t io
n
s
and if the strategic foresight has helped in
making better long-term plans and decisions on effective
governance and equitable and reasonable util
i z atio
n .
2. t he n il e Ba Sin
The Nile is the longest river in the world with a length of

8. STAKEHOLD
ERS
Government
(National/Subnational)
Intergovernmental /Regional
bodies(AU,UN, EAC,IGAD,
Corporate ,Media +??????????
Civil Society/Communities

9. Why Dialogues-Complex Socio-Economic Systems
19
Strategic Foresight on the Nile Basin Water Governance
TheNileBasin By 2050
become poorer. The central government is not strong enough to control use and reallocate to the dryer regions of the
country. Regional imbalance and inequities increase tensions. The worst tensions are water tensions between upstream
and downstream communitie
s
. With failed states, the roles and responsibilitie
s
in trans-boundary and regulatory issues
are blurred. But Kazuri has become extremely powerful that the natio
n states are not sure how they can claim back the
lost power and authority.
21
Strategic Foresight on the Nile Basin Water Governance
The Nile Basin By 2050
Some
of
the
off-site
impacts
o
–
transboundary
implications
15
/
Tanz.
component
on
er
users
/
WUAs
/
forum
ati
n
g
water
confl
i
c
t
servatory
18
Outreach
through
capacity
building
>
WALRIS
(ETH)
and
al
l
the
spati
a
l
i
n
formati
o
n
were
di
s
pl
a
yed
to
wi
d
er
audi
e
nce
at
UN-ECA
conference
on
Climate
Change
and
Productivity
for
Africa

10. Why Dialogues-Complex Socio-Economic Systems
15
Strategic Foresight on the Nile Basin Water Governance
The Nile Basin By 2050
wn water –related infectios diseases seem to be emerging that the
nt of money util
i z ed to address these life-threatening water borne
TheGrandEthiopian
RenaissanceDam
With the significant reductio
n in donor support and the rapidly increasing populatio
n in the Basin, the Nile Basin
communitie
s
resorted to cut down trees and cultivate in land designated for forests. This led to significant land
degradatio
n ; especially in upstream countries. The streams and rivers that were once permanent became seasonal.
Slowly they began to dry up. The forest cover reduced drastically. By 2030, the Nile Basin is characterized by soil loss,
massive flo
o d events, and long spells of droughts; decline in flo
r a and fauna species including fis
h e ries; amongst many
other negative impacts. This has led to increased internal civil strife and increased migratio
n o
f th
e N ile Basin citizens.
Looking back in 2050, there is despair. The basin citizens wonder how unethical their leaders were under the guise
of pursuing natio
n al interests. The Nile Basin leaders were not strategic in their decision-making. Lack of a long-term
perspective led the basin into this disparate state. The riparian states have become so inward looking, compartmentalized
and very short-sighted. The peace, security and well-being of the Nile citizens is in grave danger.

11. The complexity-Surging pressure !
Stressors/Uncertainties
• Population growth
• Climate change
• Industrialization
• Urbanization/Extractivism
• Colonial legacies
• Policy incoherencies
• Geopolitical polarisation
• Divergent sovereign policies

12. Stressors-Challenges and Uncertainties
nges:
e.g.
in
Ethiopian
Highlands
adati
o
n
/
erosi
o
n
Water
degradati
o
n
Popul
a
ti
o
n
growth
/
poverty
hange
Si
l
t
ati
o
n
e
of
water
management
at
vari
o
us
l
e
vel
s
of
appropri
a
te
l
e
gal
and
regul
a
tory
frameworks
s
to
growi
n
g
scarci
t
y
of
thi
s
vi
t
al
resource
Land
degrad
tion Growth
Total population of the
Nile countries
2019: 0.54 billion
2030: 0.69 billion (+27%)
2060: 1.06 billion (+96%)
Total population of the
Nile countries
2019: 0.54 billion
2030: 0.72 billion (+60%)
2060: 1.36 billion (+202%)
ries (1950-2060) of population estimation in the Nile riparian countries along with future forecasts till 2060. The
orecasts are based on three fertility projections (low and high). Data of these graphs are obtained from the

13. Stressors-Challenges and Uncertainties
WATER, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL
MIGRATION
Examination of conf ict and instabili
spectrum.
Image credit: CNA
Spectrumof Conf ict
Escalation
Consequence
State Competition Short
of Armed Conflict
Terrorism,
Insurgencies, & Civil
Wars
Localized
Violence
State on St
Conflict
Civil Unrest
and Instability

15. Platforms for dialogues
• Transboundary waters represent an opportunity for cooperation across sovereign
states and riparian communities
• Nevertheless, experience has shown that dialogues aligned to the fluidity of water
requires special consideration, especially in a transboundary context.
• The distribution of not only transboundary benefits but also costs can flow
downstream and outside of national borders into sub-basin and basin levels.
• Platform serves to identify and quantify synergies and competition across goals
• It is specifically relevant to the implementation of frameworks like the CFA
• Institutional barriers can impede implementation : instructional structures and cross-
institutional mechanisms are needed that allow and incentivize integrative planning
and better coordination.
• Communication requires the investment - communication strategies at a level
comparable to that devoted to modeling, quantification, and scenario development.
• Transdisciplinary analysis - investment in relations to achieve common to make the
most of the synergies that arises from diversity.

16. Dialogue levels
Analysis
Effectiveness increases (local-Basin)
Levels
Basin
Sub-basin
National
Sub-national
Local
10s may be 100s
Dialogues

17. Not too difficult
Questions !
Governmentality !
*Tools for dialogues !
*Opportunities and coordination
across-sectors @ multiple scales
*Policies and incentives
*Facilitating support for policy
coherence
*Promising lessons and practices
*Communicating the complexities
of socio-economic systems(Social
engineering/Evidence !
*Engagement -funding agencies, academics, private and
public sector, technology providers, entrepreneurs and
civil society
*Maintaining the integrity of human rights
issues/Water as a public good

18. Z
X
Y
Targeting for dialogues !
Who
Who matter(s)
Why
Interest, Influence ,
Attitude ,Perspective
How
Strategies ,tools

19. COMMUNICATION IN DIALOGUES
WHAT WHY
WITH WHO HOW

20. Challenges
• Governmentality in the design of dialogues
• Wicked’ planning and analysis of complex socio
economic issues and systems
• Competing value systems
• Incentive systems !
• Evidence in communications !
• Ambiguous terminology and language
• Spatial and temporal interdependency
• • Lack of clear, agreed approaches to solutions
• Lack or limited space for more fluid ways of thinking
in the light of uncertainty
• Participation /Inclusion/Exclusion
• Understanding intersectionality of issues
• Procedural aspects !

21. Lessons so far Aggregate trends over a decade !
• Context matters-National/Subnational/Basin-wide !
• Substantial progress in NBI-NBD co-existence driving adaptive multistakeholder dialogues
• However, surging pressure from a diversity of stressors particularly population growth, climate change,
industrialization, and urbanization, policy incoherencies and geopolitical polarisation.
• Translation of Partnership from the start and at all governance levels– listening to, and acting on,
stakeholders’ needs
• Consistent communication on Benefits ,Risks ,Uncertainties and Mitigation measures
• Formal frameworks-MoU (May be enough but not sufficient!)
• Be clear about the uncertainty and assumptions embedded in hydrological models
• Regular review of points of convergency
• Consistent review of transformative processes for sustaining the momentum for transboundary
cooperation
• Not all issues raised need to be resolved at one time !
• Tensions may occur during discussions across stakeholder groups
• Do not promise to “fix” the problems

22. Recommendations into the future !
Future dialogue frameworks should grounded on :
• Comprehensive and progressive stakeholder inclusion vs selective targeting
• Efficient mechanisms for cross-sector information and data exchange
• Deeper integration of citizen data into formal information systems at all governance levels,
• Popularization of guidance provided by the UN Convention on Non-Navigational Waters into the dialogues
• Ensure stronger alignments to Social contracts in riparian states
• Address the challenges of multiple scales of impact and decision making for different resource systems ( water is
more local, energy is more broad in scale, Climate change is macro)
• The nexus and Intersectional analysis of issues-Gender ,Youth , Vulnerability (&w-e-f)
• Keep improving communication and coordination across sectors in support of better integrative planning.
• Transdisciplinary research and case studies
• Quantify and communicate trade-offs between alternative interventions (i.e. use network analysis to inform the
decision making process).