Global concerns like the European debt crisis and Chinese economic slowdown are fading, while economic indicators from China, Germany, and the US point to recovery. This has investors believing the "wall of worry" may be easing as variables align for renewed growth in global markets, sending commodities, currencies, and stocks higher. Top Canadian banks are expected to report strong earnings in coming weeks, which could push their stock prices to new highs outperforming the broader market. Other companies to watch include Research in Motion, whose new BlackBerry 10 software and phones look promising, as well as Couche-Tard, CGI, Dollarama, and Gildan.
1. The Wall Of Worry
Sandy related headlines no longer persist and uncertainties related to the U.S. presidential elections are part of
history. Other global concerns are also fading: China's economy displays signs of recovery, European problems are
being addressed,and the Middle East conflict seems to be resolved so that we can talk about an important inflexion
point in investor psychology.
Thus, the economic index for China's manufacturing sector jumped to 50.4 level, the highest in the last 13 months.
Moreover, the IFO index, which measures business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, grew more
than expected in November, possibly leading to unexpectedly dynamic short term economic trends. Add to the above
a relaxation of IMF conditions for payment s of the Greek debt plus positive preliminary numbers of the purchasing
power index managers in the U.S. and what we have is a majority of variables (minus the “fiscal cliff”) aligned for a
resumption of the race to overtakethe highest peaks ever reached by global indexes (minus Japan).
Therefore, the Canadian dollar, gold, oil and raw materials, as equities are in the process of resuming their upward
course with the pace of the race likely to eclipse the average performance recorded in recent years.
Analysts expect growth of around 10% for profits made by Canadian financial institutions. First on the list of banks
which is expected to reveal the quarterly results will be RBC (November 29), followed by BMO, National Bank, CIBC,
TD and Scotia Bank (in the first week of December).
As you know, RBC, the country's largest lender, announced in august 2012 that profits for the period ended July 31
increased by 73% compared to the same quarter of 2011, to$2,24 billionrepresenting the highest quarterly profit
ever. It is possible that these figures will be exceeded and expectations surpassed due to improved U.S. and
international subsidiaries performance as well as stable US currency. Consequently, bank stocks are likely to climb to
new all time highs outperforming Canadian indexes.
Another Canadian company whose shares are worth watching is Research in Motion (RIM) the maker of Blackberry
smart phones. The company said it will launch a new operating system, BlackBerry 10, and will present two smart
phones based on the new platform. According to Bloomberg, RIM said the new operating platform has achieved FIPS
security certification (Federal Information Processing Standards), certifying that the system meets the stringent
requirements of data security required by government agencies in the U.S. and Canada, strengthening its reputation
as a producer of smart phones with the safest communication system on the market.
Other companies worthfollowing, and whose results will be released in the near future,are CoucheTard, CGI,
Dollarama and Gildan. The latter is the largest North American manufacturer of sports shirts that are decorated with
patterns, after screen-printers and logos. The company is also one of the largest global suppliers of socks.
Of note is David Dodge, former Governor of Central Bank of Canada, who recently stated that the worst of the last
economic crisis has passed. He expects an accelerated growth worldwide that will exceed 4%/annumby 2015. '' We
are maybe 5/6 of the way along a very bumpy journey to the world deleveraging of OECD countries, the economies
most "advanced" said David Dodge at Bennett Jones Business Forum held in Canada. Also in this respect, a recent
report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that, in terms of average
annual growth, Canada will lead the platoon of developed nations (G7) over the next 50 years.
As a consequence, portfolio managers are likely shifting to overweight Canadian equities and Brazil, Russia, India,
Indonesia and China.
I wish you profitable investments.