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20200331 asia covid 19 - grocery retail survey - india v final-ds
1. McKinsey & Company 1
While spending on all food service categories except dine-in seems
to be increasing, there is faster acceleration in the grocery channel.
1.Q: How did your spending per month change during the COVID outbreak compared to before the COVID outbreak for each of the below items?
2.Q: How would you expect your spending per month to change after the COVID outbreak compared to during the COVID outbreak? (Percent of responses from those that spend in each channel before or after the outbreak)
3.Net behavior/intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they do/expect to decrease/stop spend from the % of respondents stating they do/expect to increase/start spend
Spend preference during
COVID-19 vs. prior,1
Net reported behavior3
Spend preference after
COVID-19 vs. during,2
Net intent3
Groceries purchased from
grocery stores
+53%
Dine in restaurant -2% +6%
Ready made food purchased
from grocery stores
+26% +22%
Food from restaurants
delivered to home
+11%
+48%
+15%
Take out +8% +10%
Decrease Stay the same Increase
There appears to be a shift in
preference towards grocery,
both ready made foods and
groceries. ~50% of consumers
have or will increase their
spending on groceries for home
cooking during and after COVID-
19
Consumers report a slight shift
away from dine in, which is likely
to resume post COVID-19
Spend on take out and delivery
expected to grow during- and
post- the outbreak
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Indian consumers are also spending more often on groceries
during COVID-19, including in online channels.
1. Percent of responses from consumers who visited each channel before COVID.
2. Q: Among the below grocery shopping channels, which ones do you visit more/less frequently during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before?
3. Net behavior/intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they do/expect to decrease frequency/spend from the % of respondents stating they do/expect to increase frequency/spend.
4. Q: Within the below store types, which ones do you think you will visit more/less frequently after the COVID-19 outbreak stabilize?
5. Q: Which store types have you increase your spending per month during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before? (Percentage of consumers who have used each channel).
6. Q: Which store types have you decrease your spending per month during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before? (Percentage of consumers who have used each channel, excl. those who increased their spend at a particular channel).
Change in grocery purchase frequency1
% of respondents
Decrease Stay the same Increase
Change in grocery spending
% of respondents
Decrease Stay the same Increase
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
Kirana shops
Hypermarket
National chain supermarket
Local supermarket
Cash and carry
Local fruits and vegetables shop
Chemists
Convenience store
Online
During vs. prior,2
Net reported behavior3
+39%
-5%
+25%
-4%
+5%
+28%
+11%
+40%
+7%
After vs. during,4
Net intent3
+29%
+9%
+23%
+9%
+23%
+2%
+26%
+38%
0%
During vs. prior,56
Net reported behavior3
+26%
+3%
+19%
-3%
+3%
+4%
+18%
+31%
+5%
3. McKinsey & Company 3
In physical stores, hygiene is a major driver of customer experience;
less than 15 percent report promotions as a top three factor.
Most important factors impacting consumers’ current in-store experience,1
% of respondents selecting factor as top three
50
39
38
37
30
27
24
22
21
12
Availability of assistance from store staff
Availability of hygienic services for in-store use for customers
Store staff demonstrating cleanliness practices
Product availability
Able to shop without interacting with staff
Proactive communication of store cleaning procedures/policies
Transparent communication of changes
Promotions
Product prices for branded products
Availability of private brands
1. Q: What were the most important factors impacting your in-store grocery shopping experience during the COVID outbreak?
Cleanliness attributes
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Important factors for store selection in the next few weeks remain
the availability of fresh food, proximity to home, and crowd levels.
39 39 38
33
31
28
23
21 20
15
13
Competitive
prices on
branded
products
Stable
availability
of private
brands2
Crowd
levels/number
of people in
store
Ability to
shop and
pay without
interacting
with staff
Stable
availability
of fresh food
products
Store location
(close to home
or work)
I can order
online before
going to store
and pick up or
get delivered
Robustness of
cleanliness/hygiene
practices in store
Store is
open early in
the morning
Stable
availability of
home brands2
Store is
open until
late at night
Most important factors in choosing a grocer to go to in the next four weeks,1
% of respondents selecting factor as top three
1. Q: What are the top 3 most important factors that will influence which physical store you do grocery shopping in during the next 4 weeks?
2. Home brands are local brands, and private brands are only available in modern trade.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
5. McKinsey & Company 5
One-third of shoppers have switched from their regular stores, and
one-third may not switch back.
35% of consumers have
switched to a different
store1
70
41
30
29
28
24
21
20
16
8
Changed to a store closer to home
Primary/ regular store does not offer competitive prices
on national brand products (excl. fresh products)
Changed to an online store/mobile app-based store
Changed to a store that offers better delivery service
Primary/ regular store feels not to be safe/infection free
Changed to a store that offers better curbside or
in-store pick up service
Primary/ regular store is out of stock of a lot of items
Changed to a store closer to work
Primary/regular store did not have good quality
fresh products
Primary/ regular store stocked out on their private brands
Reason for trying or switching to a different store2
Post-COVID
situation3
66% of
consumers who
switched stores
are expected to
switch back to
their primary store
1. Q: During the COVID-19 outbreak, did you go to your regular/ primary store to shop for groceries?
2. Q: Why have you switched from your regular/ primary store for your grocery store? Select all that apply. (Percent of responses from those that have switched to/ visited the other stores)
3. Q: Do you plan to go back to shopping at your regular/ primary store after the COVID outbreak? (Percent of responses from those that have switched to/ visited the other stores)
4. Including complete and partial switching
65% of consumers are
still visiting their
regular/primary store for
grocery needs1
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
28%
9%
45%4
41%4
11%4
48%4
53%
60%
92%
88%
73%
98%
6. McKinsey & Company 6
Categories with high consumption before COVID-19 (such as dairy
and eggs) are expected to remain in high demand.
Consumption during COVID-19 situation vs. before12
Anticipated consumption after COVID-19 situation vs.
during3
34
34
32
34
32
29
28
27
27
24
23
25
23
23
20
20
23
33
32
34
32
31
31
31
31
28
31
30
28
28
28
30
27
21
21
20
22
23
22
27
26
26
29
25
25
22
28
32
25
25
19
7
9
7
7
8
8
9
11
9
13
13
14
12
13
14
15
17
5
5
5
5
6
4
6
6
6
8
8
11
9
5
12
13
20
Baby
Personal care
Dairy
Bottled water
Fresh food
Household care5
Household paper goods
Staples
Beverages
Health food/supplements/herbals
Frozen meat
Packaged food
Snacks
Eggs
Pet care
Frozen food
Food prepared in store
Significantly increased (+20% or more) Significantly decreased (-20% or less)No change in spending (more or less 5% difference)
Somewhat decreased (-5 to -20%)Somewhat increased (+5 to +20% more)
52
39
35
31
36
36
28
28
29
24
23
25
24
27
18
23
23
23
29
30
32
29
26
28
29
33
28
29
27
27
21
26
27
19
14
20
23
23
22
22
26
26
25
23
25
23
26
29
24
23
18
8
9
11
11
11
11
12
9
9
14
15
15
14
13
18
18
19
3
2
3
3
4
6
7
3
11
7
10
9
11
13
10
20
2
1. Q: How did you or your family’s spending per month change during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Percent of responses from consumers who buy each item before, during and after the COVID-19 outbreak.
3. Q: How would you expect you or your family’s spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to now (during the COVID-19 outbreak)? (Percent of responses from consumers who buy each item before, during or after the
COVID-19 outbreak).
4. Net inflow is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they stop buying the item they have bought before during the outbreak from the % of respondents stating they only start purchasing the item during the outbreak.
5. Cleaning & detergent
-2%
Net inflow,4
% of respondents5
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-2%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-6%
+2%
-4%
-5%
-4%
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020, N = 568. Sampled and focused on India’s “consuming class,” 20+ years old.
7. McKinsey & Company 7
Two-thirds of consumers have tried new brands, based on ease of
consumption and availability, and about 10 percent intend to not
switch back.
35% of consumers have not
tried new/alternate product
brands1
65% of consumers have tried
new/alternate product brands1
55
49
43
40
40
New/alternate options offer better value
(are cheaper)
New/alternate options are perceived to be easier
for consumption during the COVID outbreak
Brands that I usually purchase were
not available
New/alternate options are perceived
to be safer
New/alternate options were under
promotions/display
Primary driver for switching to a new brand/product during
COVID-19,2 % respondents who have tried new/alternate product
brands
Post-COVID-19
situation3
89% of
consumers who
switched brands
expect to switch
back to the
brands they
usually purchased
before
1. Q: Have you tried new/ alternate product brands during the current COVID outbreak that you do not usually purchase?
2. Q: If yes, why did you switch from the brands you usually purchase to new/ alternate options? (N = 371, Percent of responses from consumers who have tried new new/alternate product brands).
3. Q: After the COVID outbreak, do you plan to switch back to the product brand you usually purchased? (N = 371, Percent of responses from consumers who have tried new new/alternate product brands).
Source: COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/21-3/23/2020 N = 568, sampled and focused on “consuming class” 20+ years old
32%
9%
68%
43% 17%
35% 80%
91%
95%
92%
61%
94%