1. A risk-based decision-making
game relevant to water
management.
Try it yourself!
2013. This game was prepared by Louise Crochemore (IRSTEA), Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF),
Schalk Jan van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), Maria-Helena Ramos (IRSTEA) and Andy Wood (NOAA).
If you use this game, the authors would be grateful for feedback on your usage and results so as to
help improve future versions of the game and justify further development efforts. Special thanks to
Kevin Werner (NWS), a key designer of the original game on which this one is based.
Contact: maria-helena.ramos@irstea.fr
This game is part of HEPEX activities: www.hepex.org
START
General instructions: use full screen mode. Always click on the appropriate links in each slide.
Do not use Page Up, Page Down or arrow keys for scrolling.

2. Water management game: instructions
You are the newly appointed water manager for Lake Dual
It is a reservoir that serves two primary functions:
1. Water supply for Swof Town
2. Flood control for Safe Town
Swof Town
Water Supply
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Flood Control
Safe Town
NEXT

3. Water management game: instructions
1. Swof Town: would like to see the reservoir full on August 1st (500 Mm3)
so that its residents can count on water all summer.
2. Safe Town: residents are interested in keeping releases below 60 Mm3
each month (anything more causes flood damage to their homes)
Swof Town
Water Supply
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Flood Control
Safe Town
NEXT

4. Water management game: instructions
You are going to be the water manager for Lake Dual during the season
running from April to August:
- you will be presented with probabilistic forecasts of inflows, and
- at the beginning of each month you have to decide on the reservoir
releases for the remaining months.
Swof Town
Water Supply
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Flood Control
Safe Town
NEXT

5. Water management game: remember!
 your aim is to have the reservoir level as close as possible to 500 Mm3 on
August 1st, but you can never exceed this level.
You have to maintain a minimum release of 15 Mm3 for environmental flow and
your maximum release cannot exceed 60 Mm3.
If you fail to meet these constraints, you will be fired! The WINNER of the game is
the manager that has the highest level on August 1st (but < 500 Mm3)
Swof Town
Water Supply
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Flood Control
Safe Town
NEXT

6. Water management game: worksheet
You have a worksheet to mark your decisions!
Remember to return it after the game!
NOW LET’S DO AN EXAMPLE BEFORE WE START !
NEXT

7. Water management game: example
Its March 1st:
this is the probabilistic forecast of inflows
issued on March 1st for the next months
NEXT

8. Water management game: example
You have to decide on your releases for all the next months…
Mark the releases in your worksheet!
NEXT

9. Water management game: example
At the end of the month, you will be informed of the actual inflow
And you can update your reservoir volume for the next month
NEXT

10. Water management game: example
Update your worksheet and check if you still have a job!
You’re ready to go to the next forecast and decision
NEXT

11. Water management game: let’s play!
Worksheets shall be used to indicate your own releases
To represent the group….
We need a VOLUNTEER !
Who in the room?
NEXT

12. Water management game: let’s play!
Game Start
Swof Town
Water Supply
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Flood Control
Safe Town

13. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

14. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

15. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

16. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -37 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

17. Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

18. Previous decisions: A
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

19. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

20. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 427 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

21. Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

22. Previous decisions: A A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
A
Option B
28
Release
30
J
J
Option C
60
50
45
700
Reservoir volume
M
700
500
J
J
700
500
35
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

23. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

24. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 519 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

25. Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

26. Previous decisions: A A A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

27. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

28. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 481 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

29. Previous decisions: A A A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

30. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

31. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

32. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

33. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -55 M m3 = 413 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

34. Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

35. Previous decisions: B
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

36. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

37. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 409 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

38. Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

39. Previous decisions: B A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
A
Option B
28
Release
30
J
J
Option C
60
50
45
700
Reservoir volume
M
700
500
J
J
700
500
35
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

40. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

41. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 501 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

42. Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

43. Previous decisions: B A A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

44. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

45. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 463 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

46. Previous decisions: B A A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

47. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

48. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

49. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

50. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -17 M m3 = 451 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

51. Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

52. Previous decisions: C
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
Reservoir volume
700
500
45
500
22
18
18
A
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
700
q
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
26
24
25
M
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

53. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

54. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 447 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

55. Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

56. Previous decisions: C A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
700
Reservoir volume
A
60
J
50
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
J
Option C
700
500
M
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

57. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

58. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 539 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

59. Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

60. Previous decisions: C A A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

61. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

62. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 501 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT

63. Previous decisions: C A A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

64. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

65. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

66. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

67. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -37 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

68. Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

69. Previous decisions: A
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

70. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

71. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 M m3 +55 M m3 -45 M m3 = 441 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

72. Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

73. Previous decisions: A B
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
700
Reservoir volume
A
60
J
50
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
J
Option C
700
500
M
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

74. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

75. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 533 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

76. Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

77. Previous decisions: A B A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

78. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

79. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 495 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

80. Previous decisions: A B A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

81. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

82. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

83. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

84. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -55 M m3 = 413 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

85. Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

86. Previous decisions: B
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

87. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

88. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 M m3 +55 M m3 -45 M m3 = 423 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

89. Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

90. Previous decisions: B B
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
A
Option B
28
Release
30
J
J
Option C
60
50
45
700
Reservoir volume
M
700
500
J
J
700
500
35
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

91. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

92. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 515 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

93. Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

94. Previous decisions: B B A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

95. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

96. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 477 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

97. Previous decisions: B B A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

98. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

99. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

100. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

101. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -17 M m3 = 451 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

102. Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

103. Previous decisions: C
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
Reservoir volume
700
500
45
500
22
18
18
A
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
700
q
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
26
24
25
M
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

104. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

105. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 M m3 +55 M m3 -45 M m3 = 461 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

106. Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

107. Previous decisions: C B
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
Reservoir volume
700
60
500
q
M
J
J
Option C
50
700
500
A
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

108. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

109. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 553 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

110. Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

111. Previous decisions: C B A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
A
M
J
J
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
25
700
q
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
q
500
500
500
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

112. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

113. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 515 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT

114. Previous decisions: C B A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

115. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

116. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

117. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

118. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -37 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

119. Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

120. Previous decisions: A
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

121. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

122. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 M m3 +55 M m3 -26 M m3 = 460 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

123. Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

124. Previous decisions: A C
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
Reservoir volume
700
60
500
q
M
J
J
Option C
50
700
500
A
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

125. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

126. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 552 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

127. Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

128. Previous decisions: A C A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
A
M
J
J
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
25
700
q
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
q
500
500
500
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

129. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

130. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 514 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT

131. Previous decisions: A C A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

132. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

133. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

134. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

135. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -55 M m3 = 413 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

136. Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

137. Previous decisions: B
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

138. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

139. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 M m3 +55 M m3 -26 M m3 = 442 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

140. Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

141. Previous decisions: B C
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
700
Reservoir volume
A
60
J
50
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
J
Option C
700
500
M
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

142. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

143. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 534 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

144. Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

145. Previous decisions: B C A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

146. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

147. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 496 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

148. Previous decisions: B C A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

149. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

150. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

151. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

152. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -17 M m3 = 451 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

153. Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

154. Previous decisions: C
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
Reservoir volume
700
500
45
500
22
18
18
A
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
700
q
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
26
24
25
M
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

155. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

156. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 M m3 +55 M m3 -26 M m3 = 480 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

157. Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

158. Previous decisions: C C
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
Reservoir volume
700
60
500
q
M
J
J
Option C
50
700
500
A
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

159. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

160. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 M m3 +120 M m3 -28 M m3 = 572 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

161. Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

162. Previous decisions: C C A
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
A
M
J
J
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
25
700
q
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
q
500
500
500
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

163. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

164. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 534 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT

165. Previous decisions: C C A A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

166. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

167. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

168. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

169. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -37 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

170. Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

171. Previous decisions: A
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

172. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

173. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 427 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

174. Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

175. Previous decisions: A A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
A
Option B
28
Release
30
J
J
Option C
60
50
45
700
Reservoir volume
M
700
500
J
J
700
500
35
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

176. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

177. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 M m3 +120 M m3 -60 M m3 = 487 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

178. Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

179. Previous decisions: A A B
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
500
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

180. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

181. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 449 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT

182. Previous decisions: A A B A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

183. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

184. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

185. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

186. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -55 M m3 = 413 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

187. Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

188. Previous decisions: B
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

189. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

190. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 409 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

191. Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

192. Previous decisions: B A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
A
Option B
28
Release
30
J
J
Option C
60
50
45
700
Reservoir volume
M
700
500
J
J
700
500
35
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

193. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

194. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 M m3 +120 M m3 -60 M m3 = 469 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

195. Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

196. Previous decisions: B A B
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
500
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

197. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

198. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT

199. Previous decisions: B A B A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

200. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

201. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

202. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

203. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -17 M m3 = 451 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

204. Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

205. Previous decisions: C
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
Reservoir volume
700
500
45
500
22
18
18
A
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
700
q
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
26
24
25
M
J
J
700
500
q
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

206. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

207. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 M m3 +55 M m3 -59 M m3 = 447 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

208. Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

209. Previous decisions: C A
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
700
Reservoir volume
A
60
J
50
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
J
Option C
700
500
M
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

210. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

211. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 M m3 +120 M m3 -60 M m3 = 507 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

212. Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

213. Previous decisions: C A B
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

214. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

215. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 469 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

216. Previous decisions: C A B A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
q
500
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

217. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

218. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

219. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 M m3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

220. April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 M m3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 M m3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 M m3 +18 M m3 -37 M m3 = 431 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

221. Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
Forecast inflow volume
100
92
85
80
60
65
56
40
36
20
q
q
0
M
35
22
18
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

222. Previous decisions: A
Forecast inflow volume
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
92
85
80
60
40
36
20
q
q
M
59
Release
56
45
A
22
18
18
M
J
J
Option C
46
39
26
700
Reservoir volume
35
5
Option B
60
65
56
0
Option A
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
120
700
500
25
M
J
J
700
500
24
500
q
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
M
q
J
J
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

223. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 M m3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

224. May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 M m3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 M m3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 M m3 +55 M m3 -45 M m3 = 441 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!

225. Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
110
Forecast inflow volume
92
80
79
60
q
55
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
Forecast issued on the previous month
100
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
0
M
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

226. Previous decisions: A B
110
It is June 1st.
100
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
80
Forecast issued on the previous month
And our volunteer?
Forecast inflow volume
92
79
60
55
q
52
40
35
20
q
q
23
18
5
0
M
Option A
Option B
28
Release
30
700
Reservoir volume
A
60
J
50
45
35
J
J
700
500
q
J
Option C
700
500
M
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
J
q
J
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

227. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 M m3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

228. June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 M m3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 M m3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 M m3 +120 M m3 -60 M m3 = 501 M m3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?

229. Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
28
20
q
q
0
M
21
19
18
Forecast issued on the previous month
Forecast inflow volume
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
5
A
M
J
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

230. Previous decisions: A B B
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Forecast inflow volume
It is July 1st.
q
100
80
60
40
28
20
q
q
M
Reservoir volume
q
M
J
J
25
700
500
A
Option C
60
700
21
19
18
5
Option B
Release
55
q
0
Option A
120
500
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
40
700
q
500
300
300
300
100
100
q
100
J
q
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
J
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)

231. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 M m3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
NO, I still have my job.
YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?

232. July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 M m3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 M m3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 M m3 +22 M m3 -60 M m3 = 463 M m3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT

233. Previous decisions: A B B A
GAME OVER
August 1st has arrived.
If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
Observed inflows
Forecast on April 1
Our volunteer's results
q
120
100
80
60
q
55
40
20
q
q
0
M
q
18
5
22
120
80
70
60
58
40
36
q
M
J
J
42
28
20
0
A
700
110
100
M
A
500
q
q
300
19
12
10
8
5
Reservoir volume
120
Forecast inflow volume
Inflows in the reservoir
130
10
M
J
J
100
A
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
M
J
August
1st

234. It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 M m3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 M m3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 M m3
140
130
Forecast inflow volume
110
100
80
70
58
60
40
42
36
28
20
q
0
M
19
12
10
8
5
A
10
M
J
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)
J
Reservoir should be close to 500 M m3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 M m3 , you are fired.
NEXT

235. 140
It is April 1st.
130
Forecast issued on the previous month
120
Forecast inflow volume
110
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
100
80
70
58
60
40
36
28
20
q
0
M
Option A
37
Release
38
35
Reservoir volume
700
55
58
5
A
60
M
57
J
J
17
23
29
25
A
M
J
J
700
500
q
10
Option C
700
500
19
12
10
8
Option B
45
42
500
q
q
300
300
300
100
100
100
A
M
q
J
J
A
M
J
J
Current reservoir volume
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecast
Reservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
max (95%)
75%
50%
25%
min (5%)