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Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time Airmen
Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs. Inspector
by
Craig Cameron Birch
A Capstone Project
Submitted to ERAU Worldwide
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Science
MGMT 690
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Worldwide
Online Campus
March 13th
, 2016
iiii
Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time Airmen
Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs. Inspector
by
Craig Birch
This Graduate Capstone Project
was prepared under the direction of the candidate’s Project Review Committee Member,
Dr. Kees W. Rietsema, Adjunct Associate Professor, ERAU Worldwide,
and the candidate’s Project Review Committee Chair,
Dr. Michael P. Allison, Adjunct Assistant Professor, ERAU Worldwide, and has been
approved by the Project Review Committee. It was submitted
to ERAU Worldwide in partial fulfillment of
the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science in Management
Project Review Committee:
____________________________________
Dr. Kees W. Rietsema, B.S., MBA, MAS, Ph.D.
Committee Member
____________________________________
Michael P. Allison, Ph.D.
Committee Chair
Dr. Kees Rietsema
Digitally signed by Dr. Kees Rietsema
DN: cn=Dr. Kees Rietsema, o=ERAU Worldwide,
ou, email=rietsd37@erau.edu, c=US
Date: 2016.03.11 20:00:20 -07'00'
Michael P.
Allison, PhD
Digitally signed by Michael P.
Allison, PhD
Date: 2016.03.13 11:30:03 -05'00'
iiiiii
Acknowledgements
I would like to show my appreciation and gratitude to the many people who assisted me
in achieving my goal of obtaining my Masters of Science Degree in Management through
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
First I would like to thank all my teachers I had during my undergraduate studies at
Western Michigan University located in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and Windy City Flyers in
Wheeling, Illinois. What I learned from them was to never give up and to always prepare to put
your best foot forward; this has certainly paid off with the completion of my graduate studies.
Secondly, I would like to thank all my teachers, past and present, that instructed me
during my time enrolled in the Masters of Science in Management program. Each teacher
prepared me for this Capstone Project in some way, shape, or form. I would also like to thank
Dr. Kees Rietsema and Dr. Michael Allison for their personal time to guide me through this
Capstone Project and provided honest and timely feedback which was indispensable.
Finally, I would like to thank my family, friends, and mentors who supported me during
my graduate career. Each and every one of them has pledged their guidance and support when I
needed it most to make effective decisions. Accomplishing an in-depth research project and a
master’s degree would not have been possible without each and every one of you.
iviv
Abstract
Researcher: Craig Cameron Birch
Title: Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time
Airmen Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs.
Aviation Safety Inspector
Institution: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Degree: Master of Science in Management
Year: 2016
The current trend is for airmen applicants to utilize a contract-designated pilot examiner
approved by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to conduct their practical test. More
and more flight training institutions are accepting this practice not only due to its ease of
scheduling but also as a means to an end for achieving desired results for their customers (FAA
Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others), 2014). But
why not utilize the taxpayer paid local FAA inspector who would conduct the test as part of their
service to the public? This analysis involves FAA pilot check ride first time pass rates for all
levels of fixed wing pilot certificates (private pilot, commercial pilot, instrument pilot, airline
transport pilot, and flight instructor certificate), depending on whether a Designated Pilot
Examiner (contractor) or an FAA inspector (government employee) was utilized for the exam; is
a sufficient correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful outcome (probability) of passing
the check ride if one were to use a designated pilot examiner versus an FAA Inspector? The data
for this topic was extracted from the United States Civil Airmen Statistics database and revealed
that a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector can individually be significant given the type
of practical test examination and that some examinations will result in the same pass or fail
outcome regardless of the type of test conductor.
vv
Table of Contents
Page
Project Review Committee ii
Acknowledgements iii
Abstract iv
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
Chapter
I Introduction 1
Background of the Problem 1
Statement of the Problem 2
Significance of the Problem 2
Assumptions 3
Definitions 4
Acronyms 6
II Review of the Relevant Literature 7
Summary 10
Variables 11
III Research Methodology 12
Sources of the Data 12
Procedures 13
IV Data Collection 15
Observations 15
Pass Rates Overall 17
vivi
Pass Rates of Initial Ratings 19
Pass Rates of Additional Ratings 21
V Data Analysis 24
A Closer Look 29
VI Conclusions 42
Summary 42
A More Specific Review of Research 42
VII Recommendations 47
Recommended Application 47
Further Research 47
Researcher's Opinion 48
References 49
viivii
List of Tables
Table Page
1 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Airmen Certificates
and Instructor Certificates by Year 17
2 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates,
and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 18
3 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates,
and Instructor Certificates by Year 19
4 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates,
and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 21
5 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot
Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Year 21
6 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot
Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 23
7 Two-tailed T-Test Hypothesis Measurement Results 25
viiiviii
List of Figures
Figure Page
1 Breakdown of aircraft ratings by category, class, and type. 8
2 FAA regional offices by geographical location. 9
3 Observational scope of research. 15
4 Pass rate overall of all pilot certificates. 29
5 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – private. 30
6 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 31
7 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 32
8 Pass rate overall for instructor certificates. 33
9 Pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates. 34
10 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. 35
11 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 35
12 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 36
13 Pass rate of initial ratings for instructor certificates. 37
14 Pass rate of additional ratings for all pilot certificates. 38
15 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. 39
16 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 40
17 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 40
18 Pass rate of additional ratings for instructor certificates. 41
11
Chapter I
Introduction
Background of the Problem
The background of this problem dates back to the 1970s when the Federal Aviation
Administration realized it was practical to allow certain approved sanctioned contractors to
conduct airmen license approvals instead of requiring candidates to come to the FAA office,
which required taxpayer resources and time.
The main contributing factor to the myth that examiners fail applicants on purpose is the
fact that there are actually quotas that the FAA sets based upon statistics. Any DPE exhibiting a
pass percentage above 90% or below 70% might be subject to a 'surveillance inspection'; the
FAA's equivalent to a slap on the wrist. This, in short, means a DPE's pass rate is required to
stay in the 70-90% range, as they figure the remaining percentage of applicants did not prepare
adequately for the practical test (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA], 2015). This
encourages examiners not to be too lenient or too assertive in their examination process.
The check rides or flight tests are conducted by officials from the FAA who are approved
to conduct such tests in certain specific aircraft. For the purpose of this analysis there are two
different types of officials from the FAA that may be used. One is a direct employee of the
FAA, known as an Inspector, and the other is a government contractor, sanctioned and approved
by the FAA, known as a Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE). Since the Inspector is a government
employee employed by the taxpayers, his services are many in addition to conducting flight test
examinations and they are free of charge to the public for pilot candidates who are willing to
travel and meet at a designated FAA facility. The alternative that was created in response to
22
budget cuts for the government was the solution of designating certain individuals not directly
employed by the FAA and taxpayers, to serve as service fee contractors.
Statement of the Problem
The problem researched was to determine whether FAA pilot practical test pass rates on
the first attempt (for all levels of pilot certificates) are affected depending on whether a
Designated Pilot Examiner (contractor) or FAA Inspector (government employee) was used for
the exam; and whether there is a sufficient correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful
outcome (probability) of passing the check ride on the first attempt if one were to use a
compensated designated pilot examiner versus a non-compensated FAA Inspector. Overall pass
rates were compared to that of initial pilot ratings and additional pilot ratings to define specific
probabilities.
Significance of the Problem
This controversial topic of research is important to pilot and flight instructors alike
because the decision they make on which type of examiner conducts their check rides leads to a
significant statistical difference for first time pass rates for their check rides. This could lead to a
better track record for pilot training background checks and effects employment applications
when pursuing careers as professional pilots and flight instructors. More than ninety percent of
all practical flight tests in the United States are conducted by a designated pilot examiner (FAA
Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others), 2014);
current and future airmen or instructor applicants have a vested interest in the airmen
certification process to further the success of their pilot or instructor careers.
The dilemma airmen candidates face today begins when a candidate applies to the FAA
to become a pilot. Their eligibility is determined by a set of outlined training guidelines in 14
33
Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 61. Typically, the average pilot trainee spends about
60-70 hours of flight time (while the minimum required by regulation 14 CFR 61.103 is 40
hours) and 12 months of rigorous study with consistent training in order to achieve the objective
of becoming a new certificated pilot at the private level. In addition to private pilot candidates,
the other levels of airman certificates include: an instrument rating, commercial pilot rating,
flight instructor license, and/or airline transport pilot rating. When pilot candidates go to take
these tests for their ratings, they are known as check rides, evaluation rides, proficiency checks,
or flight tests. The check rides these pilot candidates face are considered to be jeopardy or pass,
fail events. There is a possibility of three outcomes, approved (pass), disapproved (fail), or
rescheduled for uncontrollable issues (discontinuance). If one passes, s/he is blessed by the FAA
to execute the allocated privileges under an airmen certificate status, and if not, one is
disapproved and receives a notice of disapproval, or pink slip. A pink slip documents the areas
of the practical test standards (PTS) that the applicant must receive retraining on in order to come
back and reattempt the examination. These subject matter criteria, based on the practical test
standards and Airmen Designee Handbook (FAA, 2015) outline the pass and fail events which
will be the basis for this study into analyzing the first-time pass rates (in different regions of the
continental United States) depending on whether the applicant utilized a DPE or FAA Inspector.
Assumptions
For simplicity’s sake, only the Airplane category (fixed wing) data will be utilized.
Balloon, Glider, Airship, and Rotorcraft categories will not be measured. The purpose of this is
most pilots are rated in the airplane category or if they hold multiple ratings, the airplane rating is
at least one of them.
44
Any pilot candidate is free to choose their pilot examiner or region of the country for
their check rides, although most stay within their region where they live. One false assumption
many pilot candidates and instructors alike make is that they must use a certain FAA office or
certain examiners because of their permanent address, which is actually not the case. While not
typical, pilot candidates are free to choose their region (FAA, 2015). If a pilot candidate is
applying to be an instructor, often the FAA will require them to take the test with an inspector,
however it is up to the instructor candidate to choose the inspector’s office, although there is a
misconception and most applicants do stick with their local region’s office. However, this can
greatly affect their chances on passing on their first attempt due to their staff and while this data
is not publically available from the FAA by region to draw conclusions from analysis of the data;
it could be published in the future to supplemental this data analysis and research event should it
become available.
55
Definitions from the U.S Government Publishing Office: Part 61 - Certification: Pilots,
Flight Instructors, and Ground Instructors (U.S. Government Accountability Office,
January 2016):
Federal Aviation Administration: This governmental organization administers pilot licenses and
instructor certificates by conducting an exam with a Designated Pilot Examiner or Inspector.
FAA Region: The FAA's jurisdiction breaks down to ten regions. The nine regions on the
graphical representation below, and one for international affairs.
Examination: Also known as a check-ride, check, flight test, practical exam, or flight
examination conducted by either a designate pilot examiner or FAA inspector.
Designated Pilot Examiner: A contractor approved by the FAA to conduct pilot and instructor
examinations for a fee, typically conducted outside the FAA offices. They are also appointed in
accordance with 14 CFR 183.23, who meets the qualification requirements of the General
Aviation Airman Designee Handbook, Order 8900.2, and who: is technically qualified; holds all
pertinent category, class, and type ratings for each aircraft related to their designation; meets
requirements of 14 CFR part 61, 61.56, 61.57, and 61.58, as appropriate; is current and qualified
to act as pilot-in-command (PIC) of each aircraft for which they are authorized; maintains at
least a third-class medical certificate, if required; and, maintains a current flight instructor
Figure 2: FAA regional offices by geographical location. Nine offices are responsible for their
respective regions.
66
certificate, if required. DPEs are not FAA employees and charge fees for their services, but they
"act for the Administrator (of the FAA)" to augment the limited availability of FAA Aviation
Safety Inspectors; more than 90 percent of pilot certification check-rides in the U.S. are
conducted by DPEs.
FAA Inspector: A governmental employee who conducts check rides on behalf of the
governmental agency at no cost to the taxpayer since it is a public service.
Pilot Certificate: A license that allows someone to exercise FAA privileges of their airmen
certificate.
Instructor Certificate: A certificate issued to a pilot that allows them to conduct training for pilots
so they can earn FAA certification.
Grade/Level of Pilot Certificate: A respective level of pilot certificate: Private, Instrument,
Commercial, Airline Transport Pilot, Flight Instructor
Category: Airplane, Rotorcraft, Glider, for the purposes of this study we will only be using
Airplane category data
Class: There are four categories of Airplanes: Single-Engine Land, Single-Engine Sea
(Seaplane), Multi-Engine Land, and Multi-Engine Sea
Acronyms
The aviation industry employs various acronyms to simplify communication and the
understanding of common phraseology utilized on a daily basis. The following acronyms are
found throughout this research dissertation:
FAA: Federal Aviation Administration
DPE: Designated Pilot Examiner
ASEL: Airplane Single Engine Land
ASES: Airplane Single Engine Sea
AMEL: Airplane Multi Engine Land
AMES: Airplane Multi Engine Sea
ATP: Airline Transport Pilot
PTS: Practical Test Standards
77
Chapter II
Review of Relevant Literature
According to recent FAA figures, there are 609,737 certificated pilots in the U.S. (FAA,
2006). Of these, 228,619 (37%) are private pilots. According to 2005 FAA airmen statistics,
approximately 92% of private pilots were issued an original certificate by a designated pilot
examiner with an additional 0.3% issued by inspectors (Hackworth, 2007). Therefore, it is
critical that examiners are consistent when applying the testing criteria across applicants.
Additionally, examiners must test all required Areas of Operation and associated tasks of the
practical test to be in full compliance with the practical test standards. Adherence to the PTS is
required by 14 CFR 61.43; this has not been found to be the case in all circumstances
(Hackworth, 2007).
Depending on the situation given, unauthorized repetition of questions and maneuvers
that were answered incorrectly or performed poorly is evidenced from airmen applicants.
Allowing repetition for these reasons does not conform to the PTS. The following caveats are
important: 1) The definition of poor performance is mixed but clearly spelled out in the practical
test standards and flight examiners handbook (FAA, 2015); 2) An examiner may ask an applicant
to repeat an action for clarification or because the applicant did not complete the task. Even so,
examiners are not authorized to ask an applicant to repeat an action because the applicant did not
perform or respond correctly on the first attempt (FAA, 2011).
After being designated by the FAA to conduct examinations for pilot candidates, these
Designated Pilot Examiners meet their applicants at a location of the applicants choosing on a
certain date and time to conduct the flight test. Fees for these check rides range from $200 -
$500, with the average being around $400 USD per flight test (FAA, 2015). While being more
88
convenient for pilot candidates, the additional costs are not too prohibitive since most pilots are
aware, and budget for these high costs of training. Since Designated Pilot Examiners have been
implemented into the airmen certification process, a new small economy was born that brought
many new issues to the pilot training industry (Hiner, 2005). While it provided for flexibility,
the consistency and standards with which flight tests were conducted are questionable at best
when taking a look at pass rates by level of pilot certificates.
One can read from the following excerpt from Survey Results from Designated Pilot
Examiners and Newly Certificated Private Pilots that examiners have been known to give
leeway in their examinations: “For example, in a sample of repeated maneuvers Pilots also
indicated which events, if any, they were asked to repeat. Steep turns were repeated by 12% of
pilots; 8% repeated short-field approaches and landings; and about 7% repeated soft-field
approaches and landings, forward slip to a landing, turns around a point, and power-on stalls. As
well, 5% reported repeating unusual flight attitude recovery. When asked the reason given by the
examiner for the request to repeat, 30% of pilots provided a reason that we coded as marginal or
poor performance” (Hackworth, 2007, pg. 8). Money is a driving force and influences almost
every aspect of our lives today. People and organizations make decisions based upon how they
are affected monetarily. With designated contractors being paid substantial sums of money for
conducting flight tests, there is an incentive created for them to be a desirable examiner to seek
out for a flight test (Schmelzer, 2009; DPE, 2013; Smith, 2013). Was the private pilot check ride
being conducted with the same consistent standard of testing in New York, as it was in Los
Angeles, CA and Dallas, TX? Or were there certain designated examiners seeking a competitive
advantage against other examiners, so much so that they would face an ethical dilemma of how
to conduct their flight tests in a certain fashion to attract more candidates. If this factor is
99
combined with the notion that, in order to remain free for other duties, the FAA Inspectors, by
precedence, are known to conduct more thorough and rigorous flight tests (DPE, 2013).
Decreases in FAA’s overall budget have reduced the funding available for technical inspector
training by 42 percent from fiscal years 1993 through 1996. The FAA estimated that it will have
a shortfall of $20 million for technical inspector training that the FAA had identified as essential
training, in its 1996 fiscal year training needs assessment process (Dillingham, 1996). Time is
also another factor; DPEs tend to schedule shorter amounts of time to conduct their examinations
and tend not to dig as deep into the material as the inspector would (DPE, 2013; FAA, 2015;
Smith, 2004; Schmelzer, 2009). If you consider that two or three check rides could be conducted
in an 8 hour work day, and you are able to work four full scheduled days a week as an examiner,
the potential for $4,800 a week, or $19,200 a month, is very realistic. This environment creates a
win for the FAA on deferring costs, a win for the DPEs in computed income, and a win for pilots
in the flexibility and possibly a better chance at passing your pilot check ride in exchange for a
fee (FAA, 2015). This is the basis of the problem analyzed in this study. What if you wanted to
take all of your pilot check rides free of cost with the local FAA inspector? Are you better off
taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass on the first attempt
overall? What about for initial check ride versus adding on a rating to a current pilot
certificate? If an individual candidate is pursuing a career in aviation this is a very important
issue. Training records and check ride evaluations from day one, define on paper your ability to
be a competent pilot, verify insurability, and prove your consistency and safety record as a
licensed airman (Hackworth, 2007; Hiner, n.d.; Knecht & Smith, 2012; DPE, 2012). While this
might be a separate training issue at some 14 CFR 121 airline and 14 CFR 135 on-demand
1010
charter company training departments, this study focused only on the general aviation sector for
the certification pilot under 14 CFR Part 61 and Part 91.
Summary
Among other things there are many facts and accusations among pilots when it comes to
flight tests. Most typical pilot disapprovals or failures are due to the lack of quality in training, a
candidate who is not prepared, or just old fashion nerves that effect performance (Smith, 2004).
There are those that blame DPEs and FAA Inspectors for purposely failing certain candidates
when it might be convenient for them due to having a statistically based “quota,” much like
traffic police might when issuing citations for driving infractions on a monthly basis (DPE, 2013;
FAA, 2015). Other designated examiners that disagree any sort of quota exists but do cede that
the high pass rate could be looked into by the FAA regional office manager (Bair, 2010). “The
main contributing factor to the myth that examiners fail applicants on purpose is the fact that
there are indeed actually quotas that the FAA sets as a statistical average for how many
applicants show up unprepared for a flight test” (Bair, 2010, pg. 1). Any DPE exhibiting a pass
percentage above 90% or below 70% may be subject to a “surveillance inspection (observation
ride)” which is the FAA's equivalent to a slap on the wrist to make sure they are conducting a
fair and just flight examination. This, in short, means a DPE's pass rate has to stay in the 70% -
90% range, which encourages examiners not to be too lenient nor too difficult when conducting
the oral portion of the examination from a bank of questions administered by the FAA
headquarters in Oklahoma City (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015). However, what about
comparing DPEs to inspectors for consistency in pass rates? Are airmen more likely to pass
their check ride on the first attempt with a Designated Pilot Examiner (versus an inspector), so
long as one is prepared and received quality training? After analyzing the data over the past
1111
sixteen years this study helps determine the full picture as practical flight tests have become
predominately conducted by designated examiners (FAA Designated, 2014).
Variables:
Dependent Variable: Approved (Pass)
Dependent Variable: Disapproval (Fail)
Independent Variable: Designated Pilot Examiner
Independent Variable: FAA Inspector
1212
Chapter III
Research Methodology
Sources of Data
The Civil Airmen Statistic data for this research has been pulled from the Federal
Aviation Administration’s web-based archives. It is important to note there are many varying
tables, files, and samples, which were filtered to obtain the data for this analysis. From 1999 –
2014, the data is comprised of the following two tables (Federal Aviation Administration, June
2015, Data & Research) to make several observations as to the effective first time pass rates for
pilot candidates and instructors based on initial pilot ratings and additional pilot ratings data sets:
 Table 19: Original Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor
 Table 20: Additional* Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and
Conductor
* Note: Additional ratings are entered on current airman certificates as follows: Private,
commercial, and airline transport pilot-aircraft category, class, and type instrument rating.
Helicopter pilot--instrument and type ratings. Flight instructor--ratings for each aircraft category
in which the holder is qualified, and instrument flying instructions. These additional ratings are
ratings being added on to an original airman certificate (i.e., a single-engine sea rating being
added to an airmen’s current commercial level certificate that was originally issued as single-
engine land).
1313
Procedures
When using the tables referenced it is important to note that the conductor of the
examination is the Designated Pilot Examiner vs. the FAA Inspector. Table 19 analysis captures
the data for original or first time pilot issuances given certain check rides at the specific airmen
certificate level. Table 19 specifically addresses the first time pass rates for a first time
applicant at the private, commercial, instrument, or airline transport pilot level. The Table 19
data has been combined with numbers from the Table 20 figures for additional airmen and pilot
certificate ratings to conclude a more aggregate finding. Table 20 specifically addresses when
pilots are adding additional ratings to their current category and class of pilot certificates as a
separate measurement. The data is also independently rated so determining the probability of
initial versus additional airmen certificates and or ratings can be accounted for to answer the
problem question: Are you better off taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot
Examiner to pass on the first attempt overall? What about for initial check ride versus adding
on a rating to a current pilot certificate?
Since the objective of the research was to examine the proposition that an airmen is more
likely to satisfactorily pass his oral and flight examination utilizing a compensated designated
pilot examiner rather than an FAA safety inspector; quantitative analysis was conducted on the
data directly from the FAA Civil Airmen Statistic database to support the pass rate findings. For
the purpose of the problem the Null Hypothesis is defined as: An airmen applicant is not more
likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner
or an FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative Hypothesis is defined as: An airmen
application is more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a
Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically for the flight test being conducted.
1414
Using the two-tailed T-test statistic method was the preferred measure of probability here as the
sample size if less than thirty and we are comparing the relationship in both directions both for a
Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector. Depending on where the test statistic falls,
whether inside or outside the critical range, the determination was made to specify if there was a
statistically significant difference in using a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector for
a certain flight test for initial and additional ratings with a confidence interval of 95%. The T-
test was utilized because the standard deviation is not known for the data collected from the
FAA.
The research problem specifically addresses an ethical dilemma with modern day pilot
certification due to compensation and data that comes directly from a governmental agency that
established the pilot certification process will carry merit as compared to a third party data
resource. In addressing potentially higher failure rates with non-compensated examiners, this
research asked the questions of if, when, and why first time pass rates for pilot and instructor
applicants are higher when utilizing a compensated contract FAA examiner as opposed to a
public service FAA inspector who does not require a charge (other than that you stay current on
your public taxes).
1515
Chapter IV
Data Collection
Observations:
The following nine measurements were taken from the United States Civil Airmen
Statistics retrieved from
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/ to analyze data
from 1999 to 2014 over the course of sixteen years. Beginning with the top level measurements
of overall pass rates by all airmen certificates, followed by different levels of pilot certificates,
and instructor certificates we are able to get a simple, specific, top down look at the big picture
of the harvested data. Following are the same
pass rate measurements on initial ratings of all
certificates, again followed by different levels
of pilot certificates, and instructor certificates.
Lastly, are the same pass rate measurements on
additional ratings of all certificates, again
followed by different levels of pilot certificates, and instructor certificates.
The civil airmen statistics data has been organized over sixteen years into the following
measurements depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or Inspector was utilized for
the test:
1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates
2. Pass Rate Overall: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Certificate
4. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates
Figure 3: Observational scope of research.
1616
5. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
6. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Instructor Certificate
7. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates
8. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
9. Pass Rate of Addition Ratings: Instructor Certificate
1717
Pass Rates Overall
Beginning with the data collection of pass rates overall of all pilot and instructor
certificates; this data was compiled from the combination of data from table 19 and 20 (Federal
Aviation Administration, 2015) to outline the following: Measurement 1.) Pass Rate Overall of
All Certificates, 2.) Pass Rate Overall by Level of Pilot Certificate, and 3.) Pass Rate Overall by
Instructor Certificate.
Table 1
Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Airmen Certificates and Instructor
Certificates by Year
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 83.1% 78.3% 84.0% 79.3%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 77.5% 71.9% 79.2% 76.3%
Commercial 82.7% 78.2% 84.5% 81.7%
ATP 92.7% 86.8% 93.3% 88.1%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 79.3% 76.2% 79.1% 71.1%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.0% 80.0% 84.8% 82.1%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.7% 75.9% 80.4% 76.4%
Commercial 85.4% 82.8% 85.6% 88.8%
ATP 93.4% 87.8% 92.8% 89.4%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 80.7% 73.7% 80.6% 73.9%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.1% 85.3% 84.8% 80.8%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.8% 79.6% 79.6% 71.3%
Commercial 85.2% 90.1% 85.7% 89.9%
ATP 92.5% 92.9% 92.2% 90.2%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.9% 78.5% 81.6% 80.8%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.4% 80.9% 84.0% 84.8%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 79.2% 70.5% 80.0% 84.4%
Commercial 85.2% 91.9% 85.3% 87.6%
ATP 91.9% 88.1% 91.0% 88.0%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.5% 73.2% 79.9% 79.3%
2008 2007
2014 2013
2012 2011
2010 2009
1818
Table 1 Continued
Table 2
Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor
Certificates by Aggregated Average
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.5% 81.7% 84.2% 83.7%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.7% 72.8% 81.4% 72.1%
Commercial 85.8% 88.8% 86.5% 91.6%
ATP 91.2% 86.7% 88.9% 88.5%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 80.1% 78.4% 80.0% 82.8%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.5% 86.9% 85.0% 84.8%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 82.7% 79.1% 82.5% 75.9%
Commercial 87.4% 90.8% 86.5% 89.2%
ATP 89.7% 91.2% 89.8% 88.8%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 82.1% 86.5% 81.0% 85.4%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.5% 87.5% 84.8% 87.2%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 83.1% 78.2% 82.1% 80.9%
Commercial 87.8% 93.1% 87.2% 93.3%
ATP 89.3% 91.6% 88.8% 87.8%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.6% 87.0% 81.0% 86.8%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.6% 89.3% 86.0% 82.8%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 82.9% 83.3% 82.7% 60.3%
Commercial 87.8% 93.8% 89.2% 93.9%
ATP 89.5% 90.8% 89.2% 90.3%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 82.3% 89.1% 83.0% 86.7%
1999
2006 2005
2004 2003
2002 2001
2000
Examiner Inspector
1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.8% 83.5%
2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.0% 75.6%
Commercial 86.1% 89.1%
ATP 91.0% 89.2%
3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.0% 80.6%
Aggregate Average
1919
Pass Rates of Initial Ratings
The following data collection of pass rates for initial airmen ratings is the data from
Table 19: Original Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor
(Federal Aviation Administration, 2015): Measurement 4.) Pass Rate of Initial Ratings of All
Certificates, 5.) Pass Rate of Initial Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate, and 6.) Pass Rate of
Initial Ratings by Instructor Certificate.
Table 3
Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor
Certificates by Year.
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 76.6% 73.5% 77.2% 71.8%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 73.9% 71.2% 74.2% 60.0%
Commercial 75.2% 69.6% 77.8% 75.5%
ATP 88.9% 82.1% 90.4% 83.4%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.3% 71.1% 66.5% 68.4%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78% 73.2% 78.7% 77.5%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 75.6% 65.5% 76.7% 71.0%
Commercial 79.1% 78.1% 79.8% 84.5%
ATP 90.4% 81.6% 89.1% 86.0%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.7% 67.5% 69.1% 68.5%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 79.0% 78.6% 79.1% 77.7%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 77.2% 67.1% 77.5% 68.5%
Commercial 79.4% 83.9% 81.0% 87.9%
ATP 88.0% 90.6% 87.2% 85.5%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 71.3% 72.6% 70.6% 68.6%
2014 2013
2012 2011
2010 2009
2020
Table 3 Continued
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.5% 78.0% 77.3% 80.3%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 76.7% 65.4% 77.0% 79.8%
Commercial 79.9% 89.7% 79.5% 83.1%
ATP 87.2% 84.3% 86.0% 83.5%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 70.2% 72.5% 66.5% 74.7%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 76.6% 73.3% 75.6% 76.0%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 76.8% 60.3% 76.3% 62.5%
Commercial 78.6% 80.7% 79.1% 85.8%
ATP 86.0% 78.2% 82.3% 82.0%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 65.0% 74.2% 64.7% 73.7%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 77.9% 80.3% 77.3% 77.5%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 78.7% 69.7% 78.8% 66.4%
Commercial 80.1% 86.4% 79.6% 84.0%
ATP 84.3% 87.5% 84.4% 84.4%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.4% 77.5% 66.5% 75.2%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.7% 82.1% 78.2% 81.8%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 80.4% 69.8% 80.1% 73.6%
Commercial 82.3% 91.1% 81.9% 92.3%
ATP 83.9% 89.4% 83.9% 83.8%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.2% 77.9% 67.0% 77.6%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 79.8% 85.0% 79.8% 76.2%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.3% 79.7% 80.4% 51.0%
Commercial 83.5% 91.9% 84.7% 90.9%
ATP 85.6% 88.6% 84.7% 87.6%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.9% 79.7% 69.5% 75.4%
2000 1999
2008
2006 2005
2004 2003
2002 2001
2007
2121
Table 4
Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor
Certificates by Aggregated Average
Pass Rates of Additional Ratings
The following data collection of pass rates for initial airmen ratings was compiled
from the data from Table 20: Additional Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by
Category and Conductor (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015): Measurement 7.) Pass Rate of
Additional Ratings of All Certificates, 8.) Pass Rate of Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot
Certificate, and 9.) Pass Rate of Additional Ratings by Instructor Certificate.
Table 5
Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and
Instructor Certificates by Year
Examiner Inspector
4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.0% 77.7%
5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 77.6% 67.6%
Commercial 80.1% 84.7%
ATP 86.4% 84.9%
6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.1% 73.4%
Aggregate Average
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 89.6% 83.0% 90.8% 86.8%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.1% 72.5% 84.2% 92.5%
Commercial 90.3% 86.8% 91.1% 87.9%
ATP 96.5% 91.5% 96.3% 92.9%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 90.4% 81.3% 91.7% 73.8%
20132014
2222
Table 5 Continued
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.7% 86.9% 91.0% 86.8%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 85.8% 86.4% 84.2% 81.8%
Commercial 91.8% 87.4% 91.3% 93.0%
ATP 96.4% 94.0% 96.4% 92.9%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.7% 79.8% 92.1% 79.3%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.2% 92.0% 90.4% 84.0%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.3% 92.2% 81.7% 74.1%
Commercial 91.0% 96.2% 90.3% 91.9%
ATP 97.0% 95.2% 97.2% 94.9%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.6% 84.5% 92.6% 75.3%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 90.3% 83.8% 90.8% 89.4%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.7% 75.6% 83.0% 89.0%
Commercial 90.5% 94.0% 91.0% 92.1%
ATP 96.5% 91.8% 96.0% 92.5%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.7% 73.8% 93.3% 83.9%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 92.3% 90.0% 92.8% 91.5%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.7% 85.3% 86.4% 81.7%
Commercial 92.9% 96.9% 93.9% 97.4%
ATP 96.3% 95.1% 95.4% 94.9%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.3% 82.7% 95.3% 91.8%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 93.0% 93.5% 92.6% 92.2%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 86.6% 88.5% 86.2% 85.4%
Commercial 94.6% 95.2% 93.4% 94.5%
ATP 95.2% 94.8% 95.1% 93.3%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.8% 95.6% 95.6% 95.6%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 92.2% 92.9% 91.3% 92.6%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 85.9% 86.6% 84.0% 88.2%
Commercial 93.3% 95.1% 92.5% 94.4%
ATP 94.7% 93.8% 93.6% 91.7%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 94.9% 96.1% 95.0% 95.9%
Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.4% 93.5% 92.2% 89.4%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.5% 87.0% 84.9% 69.6%
Commercial 92.0% 95.8% 93.7% 96.9%
ATP 93.4% 93.0% 93.7% 93.1%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.8% 98.4% 96.4% 98.0%
2012 2011
2010
1999
2006
2009
2008 2007
2005
2004 2003
2002 2001
2000
2323
Table 6
Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and
Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average
Examiner Inspector
7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.5% 89.3%
8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.3% 83.5%
Commercial 92.1% 93.5%
ATP 95.6% 93.5%
9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 93.9% 86.6%
Aggregate Average
2424
Chapter V
Data Analysis
Initial Results
This analysis involved FAA pilot check ride first time pass rates for all levels of fixed
wing pilot certificates (private pilot, commercial pilot, instrument pilot, airline transport pilot,
and flight instructor pilot), depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner (contractor) or an
FAA inspector (government employee) was used for the exam; and whether there is a sufficient
correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful outcome (probability) of passing the check
ride if one were to use a designated pilot examiner versus an FAA Inspector. To properly define
the problem for statistical analysis, we needed to define our testing criteria beginning with the
confidence interval and defined hypothesis.
A two tailed T-test was determined to be appropriate for the defined problem as our
sample count is less than thirty over sixteen years and the objective of the analysis is to
determine if the two averages (means) for pass rates using an Designated Pilot Examiner differ
significantly from the pass rates of an FAA Inspector. Using a 95% confidence interval, we
calculate alpha (α) to be 1 - .95, or .05. If the P-value of the two tail T-Test, is less than (or equal
to) α, the null hypothesis will be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. If the P-value is
greater than α, the null hypothesis will not be rejected. For the purpose of our quantitative
analysis problem the Null Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen applicant is not more likely to
pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an
FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen
application is more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a
Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically.
2525
As previously defined in the research methodology and data collection procedures, the
measurements taken to determine statistical differences in pass ratings by conducting the two-
tailed T-test is derived over the course of sixteen years from 1999 to 2014 as follows:
1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates
2. Pass Rate Overall: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Certificate
4. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates
5. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
6. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Instructor Certificate
7. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates
8. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP
9. Pass Rate of Addition Ratings: Instructor Certificate
The following results have been recorded in Table 7 and outline the hypothesis testing
metrics that determine whether the null hypothesis should, in turn, be accepted or rejected.
Table 7
Two-tailed T-Test Hypothesis Measurement Results
Metric P-Value T-Stat T-Critical Two Tail Result
Determinatio
n Δ Mean
Higher
Mean
1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates 0.14000 1.56 [-2.12 < T-Stat < 2.12] Accept Null Use Either 1.30% DPE
2. Pass Rate Overall: Private 0.00200 3.56 [-2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Reject Null Use Examiner 5.41% DPE
Commercial 0.02300 -2.48 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Inspector 2.99% Insp.
Airline Transport Pilot 0.00600 2.95 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Reject Null Use Examiner 1.83% DPE
3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Cert. 0.79800 0.25 [-2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Accept Null Use Either 0.39% Insp.
4. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 0.70500 0.38 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Accept Null Use Either 0.37% DPE
5. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: Private 0.00005 5.28 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Examiner 10.02% DPE
Commercial 0.01315 2.71 [-2.09 < T-Stat < 2.09] Reject Null Use Inspector 4.61% Insp.
Airline Transport Pilot 0.16119 1.43 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Accept Null Use Either 1.47% DPE
6. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: Instructor Cert. 0.00005 5.02 [-2.07 < T-Stat < 2.07] Reject Null Use Inspector 5.36% Insp.
7. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 0.03100 2.35 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Examiner 2.20% DPE
8. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: Private 0.67100 0.43 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Accept Null Use Either 0.78% DPE
Commercial 0.15700 1.47 [ -2.08 < T-Stat < 2.08] Accept Null Use Either 1.36% Insp.
Airline Transport Pilot 0.00003 2.35 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Reject Null Use Examiner 2.16% DPE
9. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: Instructor Cert. 0.00637 3.13 [ -2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Reject Null Use Examiner 7.28% DPE
2626
In Table 7 we get a first look at the results from analyzing the data in Tables 1 thru 6.
Out of fifteen measurements there is a statistically significant difference in nine of those
measurements that prove an airman is more likely to pass their practical test on the first attempt
if they specifically use a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector as the conductor for the
test.
In looking at measurement one for pass rates overall of all pilot certificates, it is noted
there is not a statistically significant difference (a measurable difference of 1.3% on average) on
passing the flight test on the first attempt if an airmen utilizes a Designate Pilot Examiner versus
an FAA Inspector. In looking at measurement two for the private level, commercial level, and
airline transport pilot level of pilot certificates it is statistically significant to specifically use a
Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the flight tests. Overall at the private level, it is
more advantageous to a Designated Pilot Examiner and significantly so; there is a 5.41%
difference in the mean pass rate for a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector.
Overall at the commercial level, it is more advantageous to utilize an FAA Inspector for the
flight test, again, significantly so as there is a mean difference of 2.99% in the pass rate with that
of a Designated Pilot Examiner. Overall at the airline transport level, the highest grade of pilot
certification designated by the FAA; it is more advantageous to utilize a Designate Pilot
Examiner for the flight test. For the flight instructors in measurement three, overall there is not a
statistically significant difference in passing the examination on the first attempt whether a
Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is used.
In looking at measurement four for pass rates of all pilot certificates on an initial fixed
wing rating, it is noted there is not a statistically significant difference (a measurable difference
of 0.37% on average) on passing the flight test on the first attempt if an airmen utilizes a
2727
Designate Pilot Examiner versus an FAA Inspector. In looking at measurement five for the
private level, commercial level, and airline transport pilot level of pilot certificates it is
statistically significant to specifically use a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the
private and commercial level initial airmen rating flight tests. Initially at the private level, it is
more advantageous to a Designated Pilot Examiner and significantly so; there is a 10.02%
difference in the mean pass rate for a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector. It
should be noted in Figure 10 there is an outlier in the data for the FAA Inspector pass rate in
1999, which was only a 51.0% pass rate; this contributed significantly to the difference of
10.02% difference in the means of the pass rates. Initially at the commercial level, it is more
advantageous to utilize an FAA Inspector for the flight test, again, significantly so as there is a
mean difference of 4.61% in the pass rate with that of a Designated Pilot Examiner. Initially at
the airline transport level, it is neither more advantageous to utilize a Designate Pilot Examiner
for the flight test versus an FAA Inspector. However, according to Figure 12, in the past four to
five years it appears to be more significant to use a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass the initial
flight test on the first attempt. For the flight instructors in measurement six, on their initial
instructor rating there is a statistically significant difference in passing the examination on the
first attempt if an FAA Inspector is used. This is a significant find in the research as the
conceived notion is that it is much more beneficial to take the initial certificated flight instructor
examination with a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector (CITE). There is also a
significant favor here towards the FAA Inspector as well at a 5.36% difference in the means
between the pass rates. Figure 13 shows that the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have
risen in the past six years to come closer but it is still more beneficial to take your initial
2828
instructor rating with an FAA Inspector as either the local FSDO or another FSDO office in a
different region of the country.
When airmen are adding an additional fixed wing pilot rating to a current one, the data
and statistics tell a different story than the overall and initial certification pass rates. In
measurement seven it is discovered that when looking at all levels of pilot certificates for an
additional rating it is more beneficial to utilize a Designate Pilot Examiner for the practical test.
In looking at measurement 8 for the additional ratings of private pilot and commercial pilot, there
is not a statistically significant difference in whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA
Inspector is utilized for the flight test. Figure 15 and 16 shows the close relationship between
the regression lines for the pass rates which also suggests there is not a statistically significant
difference in whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is utilized for additional
ratings at the private and commercial levels. When adding an Airline Transport Pilot rating to a
current fixed wing certificate it is statistically more beneficial to use a Designated Pilot Examiner
for the flight examination to a tune of a 2.16% different in the mean pass rate with that of an
FAA Inspector. This is further realized by Figure 17 which outlines the further separation of the
regression lines between the pass rates of Designate Pilot Examiners versus FAA Inspectors as
time goes on. When adding an instructor rating as an additional certificate it is clearly more
beneficial to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner, so much so that there is a difference of 7.28%
in the mean pass rates. Figure 17 supports this conclusion when viewing the additional instructor
rating pass rates for a Designated Pilot Examiner to that of an FAA Inspector over time.
At the top level, there are mixed results on pass rates for airmen depending on whether a
Designate Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector is utilized for the flight test. In Figures 4 thru
18, the data discloses further findings when plotted over time at different rate intervals.
2929
A Closer Look
After discovering the results in Table 7 for measurements one through nine, there was
additional observations discovered that could lead to the discovery of further trends and data
points. The opportunity was taken to plot the data for each of the fifteen categories in Table 7
over sixteen years on a line graph with linear regression analysis lines. The linear regression
analysis lines were plotted so changes during certain time periods within the sixteen years of data
could be analyzed in addition to the overall picture.
Beginning with Figure 4 for measurement one, the pass rate overall for all levels of pilot
certificates, the sixteen points for both the Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector pass
rates are graphed with a thirteen point interval range from 77% to 90%. A conclusion can be
drawn that the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have remained consistent with a negative
overall trend to a lower pass rate from 85.7% at the highest average point to 84% at the lowest
point. Regression analysis for the FAA Inspector revealed step decline in average pass rates
from 87.5% in 1999 to 79.5% on average in 2014. There is a noticeable widening gap in the pass
rates levels from Designated Pilot Examiner to FAA Inspector from 2011 and lastly in 2014.
Figure 4: Measurement 1: Pass rate overall of all pilot certificates.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 83.1%84.0%85.0%84.8%85.1%84.8%84.4%84.0%84.5%84.2%85.5%85.0%85.5%84.8%85.6%86.0%
Inspector 78.3%79.3%80.0%82.1%85.3%80.8%80.9%84.8%81.7%83.7%86.9%84.8%87.5%87.2%89.3%82.8%
83.1%
84.0%
85.0%
84.8%
85.1%
84.8%
84.4%
84.0%
84.5%
84.2%
85.5%
85.0%
85.5%
84.8%
85.6%
86.0%
78.3%
79.3%
80.0%
82.1%
85.3%
80.8%80.9%
84.8%
81.7%
83.7%
86.9%
84.8%
87.5%
87.2%
89.3%
82.8%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
P
a
s
s
R
a
t
e
Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3030
Taking a look into Figure 5 for the overall pass rate at the private pilot certificate level,
there are outliers that can be identified. Beginning in1999 the FAA Inspector pass rate was at a
low of 60.3%. In 2000 the FAA Inspector pass rates catch up to the Designated Pilot Examiner
pass rates, but the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates remain much more consistent with an
overall decline from an average of 83% at the highest point to 78% at its lowest most recently in
2014. The FAA Inspector pass rates continued to have another outlier in 2007 with an overall
high pass rate of 84.4%, causing the average over sixteen years to remain relatively flat from an
average of 75.3% at the lowest to 76% at the highest average in 2016. The Designated Pilot
Examiners not only have the higher pass rates here but some consistency as well; the highest
average is 83.0% in 1999 declining five points to 78% overall by 2014. Despite the FAA
Inspectors average being flat, we must not forget the outliers and large swings in pass rates that
influence the regression line. An observation is also be made the as of 2014 the Designated Pilot
Examiners had a 5.6% higher pass rate as the Inspector rate was at a near average low of 71.9%.
Figure 5: Measurement 2a: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – private.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 77.5%79.2%80.7%80.4%80.8%79.6%79.2%80.0%80.7%81.4%82.7%82.5%83.1%82.1%82.9%82.7%
Inspector 71.9%76.3%75.9%76.4%79.6%71.3%70.5%84.4%72.8%72.1%79.1%75.9%78.2%80.9%83.3%60.3%
77.5%
79.2%
80.7%80.4%
80.8%
79.6%
79.2%
80.0%
80.7%
81.4%
82.7%82.5%
83.1%
82.1%
82.9%82.7%
71.9%
76.3%
75.9%
76.4%
79.6%
71.3%
70.5%
84.4%
72.8%
72.1%
79.1%
75.9%
78.2%
80.9%
83.3%
60.3%60.0%
61.5%
63.0%
64.5%
66.0%
67.5%
69.0%
70.5%
72.0%
73.5%
75.0%
76.5%
78.0%
79.5%
81.0%
82.5%
84.0%
P
a
s
s
R
a
t
e
Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3131
Once again, in Figure 6 for measurement two, the overall pass rate for the commercial
level of pilot certificate the FAA Inspector pass rates vary greatly after beginning with an overall
average high near 94% dropping to an all-time low of 78.2% in 2014; a spread of sixteen points.
There was a negative spread of five points from the highest pass rate for Designated Pilot
Examiners in 1999 to 2014 at their lowest pass rate of 82.7%. Again, we see an overall decrease
in the pass rates for both Designated Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspectors. The average ending
result as of 2014 appears that it would be more advantageous to utilize a Designated Pilot
Examiner, however according to the results in Table 7; it is still statistically advantageous to use
a FAA Inspector for the practical test.
Figure 6: Measurement 2b: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – commercial.
In Figure 7 for measurement two, pass rate overall by airline transport pilot paints a very
interesting picture. The Table 7 T-Test results yielded that a Designated Pilot Examiner should
be utilized for the practical test. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates rose five points on
average from 88.5% to 93.5% over sixteen years strengthening the case to be sure airman
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 82.7%84.5%85.4%85.6%85.2%85.7%85.2%85.3%85.8%86.5%87.4%86.5%87.8%87.2%87.8%89.2%
Inspector 78.2%81.7%82.8%88.8%90.1%89.9%91.9%87.6%88.8%91.6%90.8%89.2%93.1%93.3%93.8%93.9%
82.7%
84.5%
85.4%85.6%
85.2%
85.7%
85.2%85.3%
85.8%
86.5%
87.4%
86.5%
87.8%
87.2%
87.8%
89.2%
78.2%
81.7%
82.8%
88.8%
90.1%
89.9%
91.9%
87.6%
88.8%
91.6%
90.8%
89.2%
93.1%
93.3%
93.8%93.9%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
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Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3232
consider a Designated pilot examiner for their practical test. The pass rates for the FAA
Inspectors fluctuate greatly every two to three years, ending in a much lower pass rate by six
points as compared to the Designated Pilot Examiners for 2014. Taking a closer look at the data
over seven points on the vertical axis we can see the growing gap in average pass rates between
Designated Pilot Examiners versus FAA Inspectors. Observing the results from 1999, 2000, and
2001 there was only about one percentage point difference in the pass rates; taking a big change
in direction around 2003 where an inverse relationship between the pass rates began.
Figure 7: Measurement 2c: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot.
Figure 8 outlines the results for measurement three; the pass rates overall for certificated
flight instructor candidates. Again, it is observed the widely varying pass rates for utilizing an
FAA Inspector range fifteen points at the largest different to an average difference of seventeen
points from 1999 to 2014. The Designated Pilot Examiner rates remain steady with an overall
decline in the average pass rate by about 4.0%.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 92.7%93.3%93.4%92.8%92.5%92.2%91.9%91.0%91.2%88.9%89.7%89.8%89.3%88.8%89.5%89.2%
Inspector 86.8%88.1%87.8%89.4%92.9%90.2%88.1%88.0%86.7%88.5%91.2%88.8%91.6%87.8%90.8%90.3%
92.7%
93.3%93.4%
92.8%
92.5%
92.2%
91.9%
91.0%
91.2%
88.9%
89.7%89.8%
89.3%
88.8%
89.5%
89.2%
86.8%
88.1%
87.8%
89.4%
92.9%
90.2%
88.1%
88.0%
86.7%
88.5%
91.2%
88.8%
91.6%
87.8%
90.8%
90.3%
86.5%
87.0%
87.5%
88.0%
88.5%
89.0%
89.5%
90.0%
90.5%
91.0%
91.5%
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
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Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate:
ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3333
Figure 8: Measurement 3: Pass rate overall for instructor certificates.
With the exception of the airline transport pilot test in measurement two, the overall pass
rate trends indicate it is becoming more challenging to become a certificated pilot and instructor
on the first attempt in modern day times up to and potentially after 2014.
Figure 9 for measurement four, pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates outlines
the initial breakdown for the first measurement in initial ratings for pilot certificates. The FAA
Inspector pass rates vary greatly once again at a spread of up to fourteen points while the
Designated Pilot Examiner’s held a respectable spread of three points on average while showing
a relatively low average pass rate around 77%. An interesting trend is continuing to be
established with the volatility in FAA Inspector pass rates for practical tests over the sixteen
years data was available from 1999 to 2014. It is also interesting to note the inverse relationship
that begins with the FAA Inspectors pass rates being a higher average with the Designated Pilot
Examiners being lower until the future when the consistency in pass rates for the Designated
Pilot Examiners proves to provide a higher overall pass rate by 2006.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 79.3%79.1%80.7%80.6%81.9%81.6%81.5%79.9%80.1%80.0%82.1%81.0%81.6%81.0%82.3%83.0%
Inspector 76.2%71.1%73.7%73.9%78.5%80.8%73.2%79.3%78.4%82.8%86.5%85.4%87.0%86.8%89.1%86.7%
79.3%79.1%
80.7%80.6%
81.9%
81.6%81.5%
79.9%80.1%80.0%
82.1%
81.0%
81.6%
81.0%
82.3%
83.0%
76.2%
71.1%
73.7%
73.9%
78.5%
80.8%
73.2%
79.3%
78.4%
82.8%
86.5%
85.4%
87.0%
86.8%
89.1%
86.7%
70.5%
71.5%
72.5%
73.5%
74.5%
75.5%
76.5%
77.5%
78.5%
79.5%
80.5%
81.5%
82.5%
83.5%
84.5%
85.5%
86.5%
87.5%
88.5%
89.5%
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Overall Pass Rates by Instructor Certificate with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3434
Figure 9: Measurement 4: Pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates.
Figure 10 for measurement five outlines the pass rates for initial ratings of private pilot
certificates. Again there is volatility in the pass rates for FAA Inspectors with an outlier at 51%
in 1999; this was taken in consideration when the regression line was plotted showing an overall
flat rate change at 67.5%. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have remained fairly
constant with a spread of roughly 6%; remaining in a constant decline once again. This
measurement graph is also the first representation the regression line average for Designated
Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspectors that has had the largest spread at the beginning of the
average data results. It is also the first two measurable regression lines that have not crossed
within the data field. Similar to previous observations we see the overall decline in pass rates for
both the Designated Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspector for the initial private pilot practical
tests.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 76.6%77.2%78%78.7%79.0%79.1%78.5%77.3%76.6%75.6%77.9%77.3%78.7%78.2%79.8%79.8%
Inspector 73.5%71.8%73.2%77.5%78.6%77.7%78.0%80.3%73.3%76.0%80.3%77.5%82.1%81.8%85.0%76.2%
76.6%
77.2%
78%
78.7%
79.0%79.1%
78.5%
77.3%
76.6%
75.6%
77.9%
77.3%
78.7%
78.2%
79.8%79.8%
73.5%
71.8%
73.2%
77.5%
78.6%
77.7%
78.0%
80.3%
73.3%
76.0%
80.3%
77.5%
82.1%
81.8%
85.0%
76.2%
71.5%
72.5%
73.5%
74.5%
75.5%
76.5%
77.5%
78.5%
79.5%
80.5%
81.5%
82.5%
83.5%
84.5%
85.5%
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Pass Rates on Initial Rating of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3535
Figure 10: Measurement 5a: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – private.
Figure 11 for measurement five outlines the initial rating pass rates for the commercial
pilot certificates. Again, it is observed that the FAA Inspectors have varying data points with a
steep decline in pass rates over the sixteen years measured. Designated Pilot Examiners also
Figure 11: Measurement 5b: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 73.9%74.2%75.6%76.7%77.2%77.5%76.7%77.0%76.8%76.3%78.7%78.8%80.4%80.1%81.3%80.4%
Inspector 71.2%60.0%65.5%71.0%67.1%68.5%65.4%79.8%60.3%62.5%69.7%66.4%69.8%73.6%79.7%51.0%
73.9%74.2%
75.6%
76.7%
77.2%77.5%
76.7%
77.0%
76.8%
76.3%
78.7%78.8%
80.4%
80.1%
81.3%
80.4%
71.2%
60.0%
65.5%
71.0%
67.1%
68.5%
65.4%
79.8%
60.3%
62.5%
69.7%
66.4%
69.8%
73.6%
79.7%
51.0%
51.0%
52.5%
54.0%
55.5%
57.0%
58.5%
60.0%
61.5%
63.0%
64.5%
66.0%
67.5%
69.0%
70.5%
72.0%
73.5%
75.0%
76.5%
78.0%
79.5%
81.0%
82.5%
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Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 75.2%77.8%79.1%79.8%79.4%81.0%79.9%79.5%78.6%79.1%80.1%79.6%82.3%81.9%83.5%84.7%
Inspector 69.6%75.5%78.1%84.5%83.9%87.9%89.7%83.1%80.7%85.8%86.4%84.0%91.1%92.3%91.9%90.9%
75.2%
77.8%
79.1%
79.8%
79.4%
81.0%
79.9%
79.5%
78.6%
79.1%
80.1%
79.6%
82.3%
81.9%
83.5%
84.7%
69.6%
75.5%
78.1%
84.5%
83.9%
87.9%
89.7%
83.1%
80.7%
85.8%
86.4%
84.0%
91.1%92.3%
91.9%
90.9%
69.5%
71.0%
72.5%
74.0%
75.5%
77.0%
78.5%
80.0%
81.5%
83.0%
84.5%
86.0%
87.5%
89.0%
90.5%
92.0%
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Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3636
have a steady decline in pass rates again across a ten point spread. We also can conclude that as
time develops so do the declining pass rates for initial commercial pilot applicants. Table 7
outlines that a FAA Inspector should be utilized for the test, but noting the decline in pass rates
from 2012 to 2014, some airman could be swayed to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner despite
an FAA Inspector being the better option statistically.
Figure 12 for measurement five outlines the pass rates for initial airline transport pilot
applicants. Here we find widely varying data points among a thirteen point data spread. It is
interesting to note the FAA Inspectors pass rate once again start out higher on average and ends
up seven points lower than the Designated Pilot Examiners pass rates. The Designated Pilot
Examiner rates remain somewhat steady across a spread of five points with a positive linear
trend. Given this is the highest rating for pilots to obtain, it is not surprising to see pass rates that
have never exceeded 90.6%.
Figure 12: Measurement 5c: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline
transport pilot.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 88.9%90.4%90.4%89.1%88.0%87.2%87.2%86.0%86.0%82.3%84.3%84.4%83.9%83.9%85.6%84.7%
Inspector 82.1%83.4%81.6%86.0%90.6%85.5%84.3%83.5%78.2%82.0%87.5%84.4%89.4%83.8%88.6%87.6%
88.9%
90.4%90.4%
89.1%
88.0%
87.2%87.2%
86.0%
86.0%
82.3%
84.3%84.4%
83.9%
83.9%
85.6%
84.7%
82.1%
83.4%
81.6%
86.0%
90.6%
85.5%
84.3%
83.5%
78.2%
82.0%
87.5%
84.4%
89.4%
83.8%
88.6%
87.6%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
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Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3737
Figure 13 for measurement six outlines the initial pass rates for instructor candidates.
Initial instructor ratings have been known to be one of the toughest practical tests for airmen
(Hiner). Hence, it is not surprising to see the pass rates hover between 64% and 79%, never to
break the 80% mark. Table 7 outlines that it is statistically significant to utilize an FAA
Inspector for the test, while the average trend lines are meeting indicating that with future data
being a possibility, it could very well be a different story in the future for the initial instructor
candidates who are seeking their initial certification to teach. It is also interesting to note how
the average regression lines begin so far apart and meet by 2014, quite a dramatic change for the
FAA Inspectors starting at 79% and ending at 68%.
Figure 13: Measurement 6: Pass rate of initial ratings for instructor certificates.
Figure 14 for measurement seven outlines the pass rate data for additional rating overall
of all pilot certificates. FAA Inspector pass rates remain to vary widely amongst the sixteen
years of observations with a 10.5% spread between the highest and lowest observations. The
Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates remained steadily constant within a 3.4% spread. FAA
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 68.3%66.5%68.7%69.1%71.3%70.6%70.2%66.5%65.0%64.7%68.4%66.5%68.2%67.0%68.9%69.5%
Inspector 71.1%68.4%67.5%68.5%72.6%68.6%72.5%74.7%74.2%73.7%77.5%75.2%77.9%77.6%79.7%75.4%
68.3%
66.5%
68.7%
69.1%
71.3%
70.6%
70.2%
66.5%
65.0%
64.7%
68.4%
66.5%
68.2%
67.0%
68.9%
69.5%
71.1%
68.4%
67.5%
68.5%
72.6%
68.6%
72.5%
74.7%
74.2%
73.7%
77.5%
75.2%
77.9%
77.6%
79.7%
75.4%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
68.0%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
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Pass Rates for Initial Instructor Certificate with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3838
Inspector pass rates also started off as the higher average getting passed up by the more
consistent Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates around 2001. The additional rating pass rates
went down again for both the Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector pass rates as 2014
was finally recorded. It is interesting to note there are four outlier data points for the FAA
Inspectors which are more outliers than have been noted thus far.
Figure 14: Measurement 7: Pass rate of additional ratings for all pilot certificates.
Figure 15 for measurement eight presents the pass rate data for the additional rating of
adding a private pilot certificate. The data tells another interesting story as we see a 23% spread
in the FAA Inspector pass rates for the addition of a private pilot certificate. The Designated
Pilot Examiner pass rates continue to remain consistent with a more normalized spread of 5.5%
over sixteen years. It is important to note the FAA Inspectors finish in 2014 with the higher
average pass rate based on the regression line placement around the eighty fourth percentile. The
Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates also finish with a much higher final pass for 2014 at
81.1%; while the FAA Inspectors pass rate finished 2014 at 72.5%. Table 7 outlines that the
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 89.6%90.8%91.7%91.0%91.2%90.4%90.3%90.8%92.3%92.8%93.0%92.6%92.2%91.3%91.4%92.2%
Inspector 83.0%86.8%86.9%86.8%92.0%84.0%83.8%89.4%90.0%91.5%93.5%92.2%92.9%92.6%93.5%89.4%
89.6%
90.8%
91.7%
91.0%
91.2%
90.4%90.3%
90.8%
92.3%
92.8%
93.0%
92.6%
92.2%
91.3%
91.4%
92.2%
83.0%
86.8%86.9%
86.8%
92.0%
84.0%
83.8%
89.4%
90.0%
91.5%
93.5%
92.2%
92.9%92.6%
93.5%
89.4%
83.0%
83.5%
84.0%
84.5%
85.0%
85.5%
86.0%
86.5%
87.0%
87.5%
88.0%
88.5%
89.0%
89.5%
90.0%
90.5%
91.0%
91.5%
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
94.0%
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Pass Rates on Additional Ratings of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
3939
statistical analysis determines either a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the
examination with no likely difference in the outcome. However, if consistency and recency is
important to an airman candidate then a Designated Pilot Examiner may be the better option.
Figure 15: Measurement 8a: Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – private.
Figure 18 for measurement eight outlines the pass rates for adding the commercial pilot
rating onto an existing airman certificate. Again we see the FAA Inspector pass rates varying
greatly with a 10.6% spread between the highest and lowest observations. The FAA Inspector
pass rates also are initially favored at a higher average by 4.0%. The Designated Pilot Examiner
pass rates remained consistent with a spread of 3.6% over the sixteen years of data collection
from 1999 to 2014. It is important to also note that the FAA Inspector pass rates are favored
beginning in 1999 and are passed up for the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates in 2010.
Given the more consistent pass rates of the Designated Pilot Examiner and the higher ending
data point in 2014 of 90.3% it may be more beneficial to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner
despite there being no statistical significance according to Table 7 in the statistical findings..
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 81.1%84.2%85.8%84.2%84.3%81.7%81.7%83.0%84.7%86.4%86.6%86.2%85.9%84.0%84.5%84.9%
Inspector 72.5%92.5%86.4%81.8%92.2%74.1%75.6%89.0%85.3%81.7%88.5%85.4%86.6%88.2%87.0%69.6%
81.1%
84.2%85.8%84.2%84.3%
81.7%81.7%
83.0%
84.7%
86.4%86.6%
86.2%
85.9%
84.0%
84.5%
84.9%
72.5%
92.5%
86.4%
81.8%
92.2%
74.1%
75.6%
89.0%
85.3%
81.7%
88.5%
85.4%
86.6%
88.2%
87.0%
69.6%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
81.0%
82.0%
83.0%
84.0%
85.0%
86.0%
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
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Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate:
Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
4040
Figure 16: Measurement 8b: Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Pass rate of additional ratings by
level of pilot certificate – commercial.
Figure 17 for measurement eight outlines the pass rates for adding an airline transport
rating to an existing airman certificate. In this data set the data point spread it much more
Figure 17: Measurement 8c: Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline
transport pilot.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 90.3%91.1%91.8%91.3%91.0%90.3%90.5%91.0%92.9%93.9%94.6%93.4%93.3%92.5%92.0%93.7%
Inspector 86.8%87.9%87.4%93.0%96.2%91.9%94.0%92.1%96.9%97.4%95.2%94.5%95.1%94.4%95.8%96.9%
90.3%
91.1%
91.8%
91.3%
91.0%
90.3%90.5%
91.0%
92.9%
93.9%94.6%
93.4%93.3%
92.5%
92.0%
93.7%
86.8%
87.9%
87.4%
93.0%
96.2%
91.9%
94.0%
92.1%
96.9%
97.4%
95.2%
94.5%
95.1%
94.4%
95.8%
96.9%
86.5%
87.0%
87.5%
88.0%
88.5%
89.0%
89.5%
90.0%
90.5%
91.0%
91.5%
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
94.0%
94.5%
95.0%
95.5%
96.0%
96.5%
97.0%
97.5%
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Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial
with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 96.5%96.3%96.4%96.4%97.0%97.2%96.5%96.0%96.3%95.4%95.2%95.1%94.7%93.6%93.4%93.7%
Inspector 91.5%92.9%94.0%92.9%95.2%94.9%91.8%92.5%95.1%94.9%94.8%93.3%93.8%91.7%93.0%93.1%
96.5%
96.3%
96.4%
96.4%
97.0%
97.2%
96.5%
96.0%
96.3%
95.4%
95.2%95.1%
94.7%
93.6%
93.4%
93.7%
91.5%
92.9%
94.0%
92.9%
95.2%
94.9%
91.8%
92.5%
95.1%
94.9%
94.8%
93.3%
93.8%
91.7%
93.0%
93.1%
91.3%
91.8%
92.3%
92.8%
93.3%
93.8%
94.3%
94.8%
95.3%
95.8%
96.3%
96.8%
97.3%
P
a
s
s
R
a
t
e
Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate:
ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
4141
consistent for both FAA Inspectors and Designated Pilot Examiners. Table 7 outlines that
utilizing a Designated Pilot Examiner for the practical test is the statistically sound choice for an
airmen candidate. The gap between the average pass rates for Designated Pilot Examiners
versus FAA Inspectors continues to grow with the regression line remaining positive for the
Designated Pilot Examiners and negative for the FAA Inspectors.
Figure 18 for measurement nine outlines the pass rates for adding on instructor rating to
an existing instructor certificate. Again it is noted the FAA Inspector pass rates vary greatly
from 98.4% to 73.8%, a spread of 24.6%. The Designated Pilot Examiners pass rates remain
consistent with a more manageable spread of 6.0%. Initially the FAA Inspector pass rates were
higher on average again getting passed up by the more consistent pass rate of the Designated
Pilot Examiners in 2001. Table 7 outlines that a Designated Pilot Examiner is the statistically
sound choice for airmen to more likely pass the examination on the first attempt.
Figure 18: Measurement 9: Pass rate of additional ratings for instructor certificates.
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999
Examiner 90.4%91.7%92.7%92.1%92.6%92.6%92.7%93.3%95.3%95.3%95.8%95.6%94.9%95.0%95.8%96.4%
Inspector 81.3%73.8%79.8%79.3%84.5%75.3%73.8%83.9%82.7%91.8%95.6%95.6%96.1%95.9%98.4%98.0%
90.4%
91.7%
92.7%
92.1%
92.6%92.6%92.7%
93.3%
95.3%95.3%
95.8%95.6%
94.9%95.0%
95.8%
96.4%
81.3%
73.8%
79.8%
79.3%
84.5%
75.3%
73.8%
83.9%
82.7%
91.8%
95.6%95.6%
96.1%95.9%
98.4%
98.0%
73.0%
74.5%
76.0%
77.5%
79.0%
80.5%
82.0%
83.5%
85.0%
86.5%
88.0%
89.5%
91.0%
92.5%
94.0%
95.5%
97.0%
98.5%
P
a
s
s
R
a
t
e
Pass Rates on Additional Ratings for Instructor Certificates
with an Examiner vs. Inspector
Examiner
Inspector
Linear (Examiner)
Linear (Inspector)
4242
Chapter VI
Conclusions
Summary
In the beginning of this study the objective was to determine if an airmen applicant was
more likely to pass their practical airmen tests if they specifically use a contracted Designated
Pilot Examiner or government sponsored FAA Inspector. The Null Hypothesis was defined as:
An airmen applicant is not more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they
use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative
Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen application is more likely to pass their flight examination
on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically for
the flight test being.
The two tailed T-test was determined appropriate for the defined problem as our sample
count is less than thirty over a time span sixteen years and the objective of the analysis was to
determine if the two averages (means) for pass rates using a Designated Pilot Examiner differ
significantly from the pass rates of an FAA Inspector. Using a 95% confidence interval, we
calculated alpha (α) to be 1 - .95, or .05. Some of the P-values of the two tail T-Test, were less
than (or equal to) α. The null hypothesis was rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis in
nine out of fifteen measurements; meaning that they T-stat score fell outside of the T-critical test
range. In six of the fifteen measurements the P-value was greater than α, and the null hypotheses
was accepted or not rejected; also meaning the T-stat score fell within the T-critical test range.
A More Specific Overview of Research
In Chapter II the following questions were specifically derived to approach the data
analysis with a distinct objective in mind:
4343
Are you better off taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass on the
first attempt overall?
Statistically from a top level perspective, measurements one, and four revealed that from
an overall and initial rating approach you are not more likely to pass the examination with an
examiner; utilizing an FAA Inspector would be statistically equal and there is a more
advantageous cost savings. Measurement seven did reveal that an airmen is more likely to pass
your additional ratings overall if you use a Designated Pilot Examiner instead of a FAA
Inspector by 2.20% difference in the mean. The answer to the question is that the results are
inconclusive and depending on how the applicant values their money a Designated Pilot
Examiner or FAA Inspector could be more beneficial for airmen practical tests overall when
looking at pass rates for all levels of pilot certificates. Overall if funds were not an issue at
$1,600 USD for the practical tests the applicant would be better of considering a Designated
Pilot Examiner for all levels of certificates except commercial. Perhaps it is more valuable to the
airmen applicant if more conclusive conclusions can be drawn from the more bottom level,
specific data results of the initial and additional rating results.
For initial airmen and instructor rating practical tests versus adding on a rating to a current
pilot or instructor certificate, is it more beneficial to use a Designate Pilot Examiner to pass on
the first attempt?
Measurements two, three, five, six, eight, and nine give the statistical insight into the
more specific pass rates by level of pilot certificate whether private, commercial, airline transport
pilot, or certificated flight instructor. Measurement two for overall pass rates outlines that it is
more beneficial to specifically use a Designate Pilot Examiner for the private practical test, an
FAA Inspector for the commercial practical test, and a Designated Pilot Examiner for the airline
4444
transport pilot level practical test. Measurement three for the overall pass rate of certificated
flight instructors does not follow suit and outlines that either an FAA Inspector or Designate
Pilot Examiner could be used for the practical examination.
Measurement five for pass rates of initial ratings outlines that an airmen applicant is more
likely to pass their private level examination on the first attempt if they utilize a Designated Pilot
Examiner and by a wide margin; a 10.02% difference in the average mean. For a commercial
level applicant applying for an initial rating they have a statistically better chance of passing their
practical test on the first attempt if they utilize an FAA Inspector. An airline transport pilot
applicant is neither better of taking their examination with a Designate Pilot Examiner or FAA
Inspector, unless they value saving their examination fee requirement by the examiner.
Measurement six outlines that a certificated flight instructor applicant is significantly better off
using an FAA Inspector free of charge for the practical test examination by a 5.36% difference in
the mean; this is a significant finding in that it is a common notion among the nation’s leading
flight training programs that it is more beneficial for initial certificated flight instructor
applicants to take their practical tests with Designated Pilot Examiners instead of FAA
Inspectors, even if it means delaying the examination for months (Hiner). In the last six years
we see from Figure 13 that the initial certificated flight instructor pass rates for the Designated
Pilot Examiner has caught up to the higher average pass rates of the FAA Inspector. The
conclusive result is that it depends whether the airmen is a pilot or instructor applicant when
pursuing the initial ratings with a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector. Designated
pilot examiners are more beneficial for certain levels of initial airmen applicants while FAA
Inspectors are clearly more beneficial for initial instructor applicants.
4545
These results carry into measurements eight and nine which outline the additional rating
pass rates for the private, commercial, airline transport pilot, and instructor applicants that are
adding additional ratings to their current fixed wing ratings. When airmen are adding private or
commercial ratings it is neither more beneficial to utilized a Designated Pilot Examiner not FAA
Inspector; the difference in the average means is also negligible at less than 1.5%. It is realized
that a Designated Pilot Examiner is much more beneficial (and statistically significant) for the
adding the airline transport rating or another instructor ratings to their current airmen or
instructor certificates if a first time pass is desired. Certificated flight instructors realize a
measurable and clear benefit of having the practical test for an additional instructor rating with a
Designated Pilot Examiner as they have a difference of 7.28% in the average mean with that of
an FAA Inspector. This statistical finding is significant in that it is the opposite of what we
found for an initial certificated flight instructor rating. For the initial rating it was more
beneficial to utilize a FAA Inspector whereas an addition instructor rating calls to use a
Designated Pilot Examiner if an airmen applicant desires to pass on the first attempt.
What if you wanted to take all of your pilot check rides free of cost with the local FAA inspector?
While this is understandable from a monetary savings standpoint, the higher pass rates
that are more likely with a Designated Pilot Examiner are worth the premium in six of the
measurements; especially for career pilots. Training records and check ride evaluations from
day one, define on paper your ability to be a competent pilot, verify insurability, and prove your
consistency and safety record as a licensed airman, as previously stated. (Hackworth, 2007;
Hiner, n.d.; Knecht & Smith, 2012; DPE, 2012). The $1,200 to $1,600 premium may very well
be worth the investment to protect a training record, as would utili1qwe3zing the FAA Inspector
for the commercial fixed wing rating and initial flight instruction certification.
4646
What about comparing DPEs to inspectors for consistency in pass rates?
Designated Pilot Examiners were found to have much higher consistencies in pass rates
as compared to the FAA Inspectors. In many cases it seemed the higher consistency in pass rates
for the Designated Pilot Examiners helped them edge out the higher average pass rates that the
FAA Examiners once held at the beginning of the data set in 1999.
Are airmen more likely to pass their check ride on the first attempt with a Designated Pilot
Examiner (versus an inspector), so long as one is prepared and received quality training?
There was no conclusive way to draw a result to answer this question as preparation and
quality training are immeasurable in the data sets and are reasonable assumptions when an
instructor endorses an airmen or another instructor applicant for a practical flight examination.
4747
Chapter VII
Recommendations
Recommended Application
Recommendations of this study were derived from statistically significant findings in
nine out of the fifteen measurements taken that it was indeed more beneficial to specifically
utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for an airman practical test; both for initial
and additional ratings. While individual outliers are a cause for concern, it would clearly be
beneficial for progressing airmen to specifically utilize the examiner or inspector who would
afford them the best statistical probability of passing their examination.
Further Research
Further research should be conducted on the overall, initial rating, and additional rating
pass rates depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is utilized and
why a consistent downward trend in all of the pass rate observations is being realized. The FAA
should publish the pass rates by region of the country the test was conducted in: New England,
Eastern, Southern, Great Lakes, Central, Southwest, Northwest-Mountain, Western-Pacific, and
Alaskan regions should be basis for regional measurement as this is how the FAA delegates
operation control authority throughout the United States.
Further to the additional categories of measurement for pass rates of pilots and
instructors, the FAA should also publish the pass rates based on which ratings are applied for
initially versus as addition ratings. The pass rates could widely vary depending on if a pilot goes
for a multi-engine private rating first versus the more traditional and common single-engine
private pilot rating. The same observation could lead to varying rates between an instructor
going for the MEI (multi-engine instructor) rating before the single-engine CFI-A (certificated
4848
flight instructor-airplane). While these scenarios are not as common, they could heavily
influence the data results when analyzing if a compensated Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA
Instructor should be utilized.
Researcher’s Opinion
The researcher is of the opinion that each individual airman’s circumstance in their
current and future certification goals should shape their individually tailed training program with
their dedicated instructor. The data that is available on pass rates spells out a clear statistical
advantage for those airmen that decide to empower themselves with the most accurate
information available to make the most informed decisions in their training process. It could
mean the difference between a dream pilot or instructor job someday. It is also important to
recognize these rates can drastically change with updated regulations and with updated
observations in 2015 and 2016.
4949
References
Bair, J. (2010, February 10). DPE. Retrieved September 27, 2015, from Sport Aviation
Unlimited: http://www.sportaviationunlimited.com/DPE.htm
Dillingham, G. L. (1996, April 30). Targeting and Training of FAA's Safety Inspector
Workforce. Retrieved September 2015, from United States Government Publishing
Office: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GAOREPORTS-T-RCED-96-
26/pdf/GAOREPORTS-T-RCED-96-26.pdf
FAA Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others). (2014).
Retrieved September 27, 2015, from Flight School Association of North America:
http://www.fsana.com/news-faa-designated-pilot-examiner-dpe-program-under-watch-
fsana-and-others
Federal Aviation Administration. (2013, December 23). Aviation Safety Inspectors. Retrieved
September 2015, from Federal Aviation Administration:
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ahr/jobs_careers/occupations/
av_safety_insp/
Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, June 2). Data & Research. Retrieved September 2015,
from Federal Aviation Administration:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/
Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, March 2). Flight Standards District Offices. Retrieved
September 2015, from Federal Aviation Administration:
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/field_offices/fsdo/
5050
Federal Aviation Administration. (2013, July 24). General Aviation Airman Designee Handbook.
Retrieved September 2015, from Department of Transporation :
http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Order/8900_2_CHG_2.pdf
Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, June 12). General Aviation Airman Designee
Handbook. Retrieved September 2015, from Department of Transporation:
http://www.faa.gov/documentlibrary/media/order/8900_2a_chg1.pdf
Hackworth, C. A. (2007, June). The Private Pilot Practical Test: Survey results from designated
pilot examiners and newly certificated private pilots. Retrieved September 2015, from
Hunt Library: http://libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/faa-aviation-medicine-
reports/AM07-17.pdf
Hiner, R. (n.d.). FAA-CFI Partnerships: We're All in This Together. Retrieved September 2015,
from Aircraft Owners & Pilots Association:
http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/inst_reports2.cfm?article=5425
Knecht, W., & Smith, J. (2012, March). Effects of Traing School Type and Examiner Type on
General Aviation Flight Safety. Retrieved September 2015, from Hunt Library Online:
http://libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/faa-aviation-medicine-reports/AM13-04.pdf
Lindberg, P. M. (2014). Journal of Air Law and Commerce: 79 J. Air L. & Com. 463. Retrieved
September 15, 2015, from LexisNexis:
http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?shr=t&cs
i=144697&sr=TITLE%28%22Educational%20malpractice%20and%20the%20liability%
20of%20flight%20training%20providers%22%29%20and%20date%20is%202014
Schmelzer, B. (2009, September). Checkride - The Law of Percentages. Retrieved September 27,
2015, from AOPA Flight Training:
5151
http://flighttraining.aopa.org/magazine/2009/September/200909_Departments_Checkride
.html
Smith, D. (2004, July). About Checkrides. Retrieved September 29, 2015, from CFI Darren.com:
http://www.cfidarren.com/r-checkride.htm
Various. (2013, November). DPE vs. FAA Inspector. Retrieved September 28, 2015, from Pilots
of America: http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-65412.html

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Birch Final Paper (signed)

  • 1. ii Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time Airmen Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs. Inspector by Craig Cameron Birch A Capstone Project Submitted to ERAU Worldwide In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Science MGMT 690 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Worldwide Online Campus March 13th , 2016
  • 2. iiii Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time Airmen Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs. Inspector by Craig Birch This Graduate Capstone Project was prepared under the direction of the candidate’s Project Review Committee Member, Dr. Kees W. Rietsema, Adjunct Associate Professor, ERAU Worldwide, and the candidate’s Project Review Committee Chair, Dr. Michael P. Allison, Adjunct Assistant Professor, ERAU Worldwide, and has been approved by the Project Review Committee. It was submitted to ERAU Worldwide in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Management Project Review Committee: ____________________________________ Dr. Kees W. Rietsema, B.S., MBA, MAS, Ph.D. Committee Member ____________________________________ Michael P. Allison, Ph.D. Committee Chair Dr. Kees Rietsema Digitally signed by Dr. Kees Rietsema DN: cn=Dr. Kees Rietsema, o=ERAU Worldwide, ou, email=rietsd37@erau.edu, c=US Date: 2016.03.11 20:00:20 -07'00' Michael P. Allison, PhD Digitally signed by Michael P. Allison, PhD Date: 2016.03.13 11:30:03 -05'00'
  • 3. iiiiii Acknowledgements I would like to show my appreciation and gratitude to the many people who assisted me in achieving my goal of obtaining my Masters of Science Degree in Management through Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. First I would like to thank all my teachers I had during my undergraduate studies at Western Michigan University located in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and Windy City Flyers in Wheeling, Illinois. What I learned from them was to never give up and to always prepare to put your best foot forward; this has certainly paid off with the completion of my graduate studies. Secondly, I would like to thank all my teachers, past and present, that instructed me during my time enrolled in the Masters of Science in Management program. Each teacher prepared me for this Capstone Project in some way, shape, or form. I would also like to thank Dr. Kees Rietsema and Dr. Michael Allison for their personal time to guide me through this Capstone Project and provided honest and timely feedback which was indispensable. Finally, I would like to thank my family, friends, and mentors who supported me during my graduate career. Each and every one of them has pledged their guidance and support when I needed it most to make effective decisions. Accomplishing an in-depth research project and a master’s degree would not have been possible without each and every one of you.
  • 4. iviv Abstract Researcher: Craig Cameron Birch Title: Analysis of Federal Aviation Administration First Time Pass Rates on First Time Airmen Applicants Utilizing a Compensated Designated Pilot Examiner vs. Aviation Safety Inspector Institution: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Degree: Master of Science in Management Year: 2016 The current trend is for airmen applicants to utilize a contract-designated pilot examiner approved by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to conduct their practical test. More and more flight training institutions are accepting this practice not only due to its ease of scheduling but also as a means to an end for achieving desired results for their customers (FAA Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others), 2014). But why not utilize the taxpayer paid local FAA inspector who would conduct the test as part of their service to the public? This analysis involves FAA pilot check ride first time pass rates for all levels of fixed wing pilot certificates (private pilot, commercial pilot, instrument pilot, airline transport pilot, and flight instructor certificate), depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner (contractor) or an FAA inspector (government employee) was utilized for the exam; is a sufficient correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful outcome (probability) of passing the check ride if one were to use a designated pilot examiner versus an FAA Inspector? The data for this topic was extracted from the United States Civil Airmen Statistics database and revealed that a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector can individually be significant given the type of practical test examination and that some examinations will result in the same pass or fail outcome regardless of the type of test conductor.
  • 5. vv Table of Contents Page Project Review Committee ii Acknowledgements iii Abstract iv List of Tables vii List of Figures viii Chapter I Introduction 1 Background of the Problem 1 Statement of the Problem 2 Significance of the Problem 2 Assumptions 3 Definitions 4 Acronyms 6 II Review of the Relevant Literature 7 Summary 10 Variables 11 III Research Methodology 12 Sources of the Data 12 Procedures 13 IV Data Collection 15 Observations 15 Pass Rates Overall 17
  • 6. vivi Pass Rates of Initial Ratings 19 Pass Rates of Additional Ratings 21 V Data Analysis 24 A Closer Look 29 VI Conclusions 42 Summary 42 A More Specific Review of Research 42 VII Recommendations 47 Recommended Application 47 Further Research 47 Researcher's Opinion 48 References 49
  • 7. viivii List of Tables Table Page 1 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Airmen Certificates and Instructor Certificates by Year 17 2 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 18 3 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Year 19 4 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 21 5 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Year 21 6 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average 23 7 Two-tailed T-Test Hypothesis Measurement Results 25
  • 8. viiiviii List of Figures Figure Page 1 Breakdown of aircraft ratings by category, class, and type. 8 2 FAA regional offices by geographical location. 9 3 Observational scope of research. 15 4 Pass rate overall of all pilot certificates. 29 5 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – private. 30 6 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 31 7 Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 32 8 Pass rate overall for instructor certificates. 33 9 Pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates. 34 10 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. 35 11 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 35 12 Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 36 13 Pass rate of initial ratings for instructor certificates. 37 14 Pass rate of additional ratings for all pilot certificates. 38 15 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. 39 16 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 40 17 Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 40 18 Pass rate of additional ratings for instructor certificates. 41
  • 9. 11 Chapter I Introduction Background of the Problem The background of this problem dates back to the 1970s when the Federal Aviation Administration realized it was practical to allow certain approved sanctioned contractors to conduct airmen license approvals instead of requiring candidates to come to the FAA office, which required taxpayer resources and time. The main contributing factor to the myth that examiners fail applicants on purpose is the fact that there are actually quotas that the FAA sets based upon statistics. Any DPE exhibiting a pass percentage above 90% or below 70% might be subject to a 'surveillance inspection'; the FAA's equivalent to a slap on the wrist. This, in short, means a DPE's pass rate is required to stay in the 70-90% range, as they figure the remaining percentage of applicants did not prepare adequately for the practical test (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA], 2015). This encourages examiners not to be too lenient or too assertive in their examination process. The check rides or flight tests are conducted by officials from the FAA who are approved to conduct such tests in certain specific aircraft. For the purpose of this analysis there are two different types of officials from the FAA that may be used. One is a direct employee of the FAA, known as an Inspector, and the other is a government contractor, sanctioned and approved by the FAA, known as a Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE). Since the Inspector is a government employee employed by the taxpayers, his services are many in addition to conducting flight test examinations and they are free of charge to the public for pilot candidates who are willing to travel and meet at a designated FAA facility. The alternative that was created in response to
  • 10. 22 budget cuts for the government was the solution of designating certain individuals not directly employed by the FAA and taxpayers, to serve as service fee contractors. Statement of the Problem The problem researched was to determine whether FAA pilot practical test pass rates on the first attempt (for all levels of pilot certificates) are affected depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner (contractor) or FAA Inspector (government employee) was used for the exam; and whether there is a sufficient correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful outcome (probability) of passing the check ride on the first attempt if one were to use a compensated designated pilot examiner versus a non-compensated FAA Inspector. Overall pass rates were compared to that of initial pilot ratings and additional pilot ratings to define specific probabilities. Significance of the Problem This controversial topic of research is important to pilot and flight instructors alike because the decision they make on which type of examiner conducts their check rides leads to a significant statistical difference for first time pass rates for their check rides. This could lead to a better track record for pilot training background checks and effects employment applications when pursuing careers as professional pilots and flight instructors. More than ninety percent of all practical flight tests in the United States are conducted by a designated pilot examiner (FAA Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others), 2014); current and future airmen or instructor applicants have a vested interest in the airmen certification process to further the success of their pilot or instructor careers. The dilemma airmen candidates face today begins when a candidate applies to the FAA to become a pilot. Their eligibility is determined by a set of outlined training guidelines in 14
  • 11. 33 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 61. Typically, the average pilot trainee spends about 60-70 hours of flight time (while the minimum required by regulation 14 CFR 61.103 is 40 hours) and 12 months of rigorous study with consistent training in order to achieve the objective of becoming a new certificated pilot at the private level. In addition to private pilot candidates, the other levels of airman certificates include: an instrument rating, commercial pilot rating, flight instructor license, and/or airline transport pilot rating. When pilot candidates go to take these tests for their ratings, they are known as check rides, evaluation rides, proficiency checks, or flight tests. The check rides these pilot candidates face are considered to be jeopardy or pass, fail events. There is a possibility of three outcomes, approved (pass), disapproved (fail), or rescheduled for uncontrollable issues (discontinuance). If one passes, s/he is blessed by the FAA to execute the allocated privileges under an airmen certificate status, and if not, one is disapproved and receives a notice of disapproval, or pink slip. A pink slip documents the areas of the practical test standards (PTS) that the applicant must receive retraining on in order to come back and reattempt the examination. These subject matter criteria, based on the practical test standards and Airmen Designee Handbook (FAA, 2015) outline the pass and fail events which will be the basis for this study into analyzing the first-time pass rates (in different regions of the continental United States) depending on whether the applicant utilized a DPE or FAA Inspector. Assumptions For simplicity’s sake, only the Airplane category (fixed wing) data will be utilized. Balloon, Glider, Airship, and Rotorcraft categories will not be measured. The purpose of this is most pilots are rated in the airplane category or if they hold multiple ratings, the airplane rating is at least one of them.
  • 12. 44 Any pilot candidate is free to choose their pilot examiner or region of the country for their check rides, although most stay within their region where they live. One false assumption many pilot candidates and instructors alike make is that they must use a certain FAA office or certain examiners because of their permanent address, which is actually not the case. While not typical, pilot candidates are free to choose their region (FAA, 2015). If a pilot candidate is applying to be an instructor, often the FAA will require them to take the test with an inspector, however it is up to the instructor candidate to choose the inspector’s office, although there is a misconception and most applicants do stick with their local region’s office. However, this can greatly affect their chances on passing on their first attempt due to their staff and while this data is not publically available from the FAA by region to draw conclusions from analysis of the data; it could be published in the future to supplemental this data analysis and research event should it become available.
  • 13. 55 Definitions from the U.S Government Publishing Office: Part 61 - Certification: Pilots, Flight Instructors, and Ground Instructors (U.S. Government Accountability Office, January 2016): Federal Aviation Administration: This governmental organization administers pilot licenses and instructor certificates by conducting an exam with a Designated Pilot Examiner or Inspector. FAA Region: The FAA's jurisdiction breaks down to ten regions. The nine regions on the graphical representation below, and one for international affairs. Examination: Also known as a check-ride, check, flight test, practical exam, or flight examination conducted by either a designate pilot examiner or FAA inspector. Designated Pilot Examiner: A contractor approved by the FAA to conduct pilot and instructor examinations for a fee, typically conducted outside the FAA offices. They are also appointed in accordance with 14 CFR 183.23, who meets the qualification requirements of the General Aviation Airman Designee Handbook, Order 8900.2, and who: is technically qualified; holds all pertinent category, class, and type ratings for each aircraft related to their designation; meets requirements of 14 CFR part 61, 61.56, 61.57, and 61.58, as appropriate; is current and qualified to act as pilot-in-command (PIC) of each aircraft for which they are authorized; maintains at least a third-class medical certificate, if required; and, maintains a current flight instructor Figure 2: FAA regional offices by geographical location. Nine offices are responsible for their respective regions.
  • 14. 66 certificate, if required. DPEs are not FAA employees and charge fees for their services, but they "act for the Administrator (of the FAA)" to augment the limited availability of FAA Aviation Safety Inspectors; more than 90 percent of pilot certification check-rides in the U.S. are conducted by DPEs. FAA Inspector: A governmental employee who conducts check rides on behalf of the governmental agency at no cost to the taxpayer since it is a public service. Pilot Certificate: A license that allows someone to exercise FAA privileges of their airmen certificate. Instructor Certificate: A certificate issued to a pilot that allows them to conduct training for pilots so they can earn FAA certification. Grade/Level of Pilot Certificate: A respective level of pilot certificate: Private, Instrument, Commercial, Airline Transport Pilot, Flight Instructor Category: Airplane, Rotorcraft, Glider, for the purposes of this study we will only be using Airplane category data Class: There are four categories of Airplanes: Single-Engine Land, Single-Engine Sea (Seaplane), Multi-Engine Land, and Multi-Engine Sea Acronyms The aviation industry employs various acronyms to simplify communication and the understanding of common phraseology utilized on a daily basis. The following acronyms are found throughout this research dissertation: FAA: Federal Aviation Administration DPE: Designated Pilot Examiner ASEL: Airplane Single Engine Land ASES: Airplane Single Engine Sea AMEL: Airplane Multi Engine Land AMES: Airplane Multi Engine Sea ATP: Airline Transport Pilot PTS: Practical Test Standards
  • 15. 77 Chapter II Review of Relevant Literature According to recent FAA figures, there are 609,737 certificated pilots in the U.S. (FAA, 2006). Of these, 228,619 (37%) are private pilots. According to 2005 FAA airmen statistics, approximately 92% of private pilots were issued an original certificate by a designated pilot examiner with an additional 0.3% issued by inspectors (Hackworth, 2007). Therefore, it is critical that examiners are consistent when applying the testing criteria across applicants. Additionally, examiners must test all required Areas of Operation and associated tasks of the practical test to be in full compliance with the practical test standards. Adherence to the PTS is required by 14 CFR 61.43; this has not been found to be the case in all circumstances (Hackworth, 2007). Depending on the situation given, unauthorized repetition of questions and maneuvers that were answered incorrectly or performed poorly is evidenced from airmen applicants. Allowing repetition for these reasons does not conform to the PTS. The following caveats are important: 1) The definition of poor performance is mixed but clearly spelled out in the practical test standards and flight examiners handbook (FAA, 2015); 2) An examiner may ask an applicant to repeat an action for clarification or because the applicant did not complete the task. Even so, examiners are not authorized to ask an applicant to repeat an action because the applicant did not perform or respond correctly on the first attempt (FAA, 2011). After being designated by the FAA to conduct examinations for pilot candidates, these Designated Pilot Examiners meet their applicants at a location of the applicants choosing on a certain date and time to conduct the flight test. Fees for these check rides range from $200 - $500, with the average being around $400 USD per flight test (FAA, 2015). While being more
  • 16. 88 convenient for pilot candidates, the additional costs are not too prohibitive since most pilots are aware, and budget for these high costs of training. Since Designated Pilot Examiners have been implemented into the airmen certification process, a new small economy was born that brought many new issues to the pilot training industry (Hiner, 2005). While it provided for flexibility, the consistency and standards with which flight tests were conducted are questionable at best when taking a look at pass rates by level of pilot certificates. One can read from the following excerpt from Survey Results from Designated Pilot Examiners and Newly Certificated Private Pilots that examiners have been known to give leeway in their examinations: “For example, in a sample of repeated maneuvers Pilots also indicated which events, if any, they were asked to repeat. Steep turns were repeated by 12% of pilots; 8% repeated short-field approaches and landings; and about 7% repeated soft-field approaches and landings, forward slip to a landing, turns around a point, and power-on stalls. As well, 5% reported repeating unusual flight attitude recovery. When asked the reason given by the examiner for the request to repeat, 30% of pilots provided a reason that we coded as marginal or poor performance” (Hackworth, 2007, pg. 8). Money is a driving force and influences almost every aspect of our lives today. People and organizations make decisions based upon how they are affected monetarily. With designated contractors being paid substantial sums of money for conducting flight tests, there is an incentive created for them to be a desirable examiner to seek out for a flight test (Schmelzer, 2009; DPE, 2013; Smith, 2013). Was the private pilot check ride being conducted with the same consistent standard of testing in New York, as it was in Los Angeles, CA and Dallas, TX? Or were there certain designated examiners seeking a competitive advantage against other examiners, so much so that they would face an ethical dilemma of how to conduct their flight tests in a certain fashion to attract more candidates. If this factor is
  • 17. 99 combined with the notion that, in order to remain free for other duties, the FAA Inspectors, by precedence, are known to conduct more thorough and rigorous flight tests (DPE, 2013). Decreases in FAA’s overall budget have reduced the funding available for technical inspector training by 42 percent from fiscal years 1993 through 1996. The FAA estimated that it will have a shortfall of $20 million for technical inspector training that the FAA had identified as essential training, in its 1996 fiscal year training needs assessment process (Dillingham, 1996). Time is also another factor; DPEs tend to schedule shorter amounts of time to conduct their examinations and tend not to dig as deep into the material as the inspector would (DPE, 2013; FAA, 2015; Smith, 2004; Schmelzer, 2009). If you consider that two or three check rides could be conducted in an 8 hour work day, and you are able to work four full scheduled days a week as an examiner, the potential for $4,800 a week, or $19,200 a month, is very realistic. This environment creates a win for the FAA on deferring costs, a win for the DPEs in computed income, and a win for pilots in the flexibility and possibly a better chance at passing your pilot check ride in exchange for a fee (FAA, 2015). This is the basis of the problem analyzed in this study. What if you wanted to take all of your pilot check rides free of cost with the local FAA inspector? Are you better off taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass on the first attempt overall? What about for initial check ride versus adding on a rating to a current pilot certificate? If an individual candidate is pursuing a career in aviation this is a very important issue. Training records and check ride evaluations from day one, define on paper your ability to be a competent pilot, verify insurability, and prove your consistency and safety record as a licensed airman (Hackworth, 2007; Hiner, n.d.; Knecht & Smith, 2012; DPE, 2012). While this might be a separate training issue at some 14 CFR 121 airline and 14 CFR 135 on-demand
  • 18. 1010 charter company training departments, this study focused only on the general aviation sector for the certification pilot under 14 CFR Part 61 and Part 91. Summary Among other things there are many facts and accusations among pilots when it comes to flight tests. Most typical pilot disapprovals or failures are due to the lack of quality in training, a candidate who is not prepared, or just old fashion nerves that effect performance (Smith, 2004). There are those that blame DPEs and FAA Inspectors for purposely failing certain candidates when it might be convenient for them due to having a statistically based “quota,” much like traffic police might when issuing citations for driving infractions on a monthly basis (DPE, 2013; FAA, 2015). Other designated examiners that disagree any sort of quota exists but do cede that the high pass rate could be looked into by the FAA regional office manager (Bair, 2010). “The main contributing factor to the myth that examiners fail applicants on purpose is the fact that there are indeed actually quotas that the FAA sets as a statistical average for how many applicants show up unprepared for a flight test” (Bair, 2010, pg. 1). Any DPE exhibiting a pass percentage above 90% or below 70% may be subject to a “surveillance inspection (observation ride)” which is the FAA's equivalent to a slap on the wrist to make sure they are conducting a fair and just flight examination. This, in short, means a DPE's pass rate has to stay in the 70% - 90% range, which encourages examiners not to be too lenient nor too difficult when conducting the oral portion of the examination from a bank of questions administered by the FAA headquarters in Oklahoma City (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015). However, what about comparing DPEs to inspectors for consistency in pass rates? Are airmen more likely to pass their check ride on the first attempt with a Designated Pilot Examiner (versus an inspector), so long as one is prepared and received quality training? After analyzing the data over the past
  • 19. 1111 sixteen years this study helps determine the full picture as practical flight tests have become predominately conducted by designated examiners (FAA Designated, 2014). Variables: Dependent Variable: Approved (Pass) Dependent Variable: Disapproval (Fail) Independent Variable: Designated Pilot Examiner Independent Variable: FAA Inspector
  • 20. 1212 Chapter III Research Methodology Sources of Data The Civil Airmen Statistic data for this research has been pulled from the Federal Aviation Administration’s web-based archives. It is important to note there are many varying tables, files, and samples, which were filtered to obtain the data for this analysis. From 1999 – 2014, the data is comprised of the following two tables (Federal Aviation Administration, June 2015, Data & Research) to make several observations as to the effective first time pass rates for pilot candidates and instructors based on initial pilot ratings and additional pilot ratings data sets:  Table 19: Original Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor  Table 20: Additional* Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor * Note: Additional ratings are entered on current airman certificates as follows: Private, commercial, and airline transport pilot-aircraft category, class, and type instrument rating. Helicopter pilot--instrument and type ratings. Flight instructor--ratings for each aircraft category in which the holder is qualified, and instrument flying instructions. These additional ratings are ratings being added on to an original airman certificate (i.e., a single-engine sea rating being added to an airmen’s current commercial level certificate that was originally issued as single- engine land).
  • 21. 1313 Procedures When using the tables referenced it is important to note that the conductor of the examination is the Designated Pilot Examiner vs. the FAA Inspector. Table 19 analysis captures the data for original or first time pilot issuances given certain check rides at the specific airmen certificate level. Table 19 specifically addresses the first time pass rates for a first time applicant at the private, commercial, instrument, or airline transport pilot level. The Table 19 data has been combined with numbers from the Table 20 figures for additional airmen and pilot certificate ratings to conclude a more aggregate finding. Table 20 specifically addresses when pilots are adding additional ratings to their current category and class of pilot certificates as a separate measurement. The data is also independently rated so determining the probability of initial versus additional airmen certificates and or ratings can be accounted for to answer the problem question: Are you better off taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass on the first attempt overall? What about for initial check ride versus adding on a rating to a current pilot certificate? Since the objective of the research was to examine the proposition that an airmen is more likely to satisfactorily pass his oral and flight examination utilizing a compensated designated pilot examiner rather than an FAA safety inspector; quantitative analysis was conducted on the data directly from the FAA Civil Airmen Statistic database to support the pass rate findings. For the purpose of the problem the Null Hypothesis is defined as: An airmen applicant is not more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative Hypothesis is defined as: An airmen application is more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically for the flight test being conducted.
  • 22. 1414 Using the two-tailed T-test statistic method was the preferred measure of probability here as the sample size if less than thirty and we are comparing the relationship in both directions both for a Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector. Depending on where the test statistic falls, whether inside or outside the critical range, the determination was made to specify if there was a statistically significant difference in using a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector for a certain flight test for initial and additional ratings with a confidence interval of 95%. The T- test was utilized because the standard deviation is not known for the data collected from the FAA. The research problem specifically addresses an ethical dilemma with modern day pilot certification due to compensation and data that comes directly from a governmental agency that established the pilot certification process will carry merit as compared to a third party data resource. In addressing potentially higher failure rates with non-compensated examiners, this research asked the questions of if, when, and why first time pass rates for pilot and instructor applicants are higher when utilizing a compensated contract FAA examiner as opposed to a public service FAA inspector who does not require a charge (other than that you stay current on your public taxes).
  • 23. 1515 Chapter IV Data Collection Observations: The following nine measurements were taken from the United States Civil Airmen Statistics retrieved from http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/ to analyze data from 1999 to 2014 over the course of sixteen years. Beginning with the top level measurements of overall pass rates by all airmen certificates, followed by different levels of pilot certificates, and instructor certificates we are able to get a simple, specific, top down look at the big picture of the harvested data. Following are the same pass rate measurements on initial ratings of all certificates, again followed by different levels of pilot certificates, and instructor certificates. Lastly, are the same pass rate measurements on additional ratings of all certificates, again followed by different levels of pilot certificates, and instructor certificates. The civil airmen statistics data has been organized over sixteen years into the following measurements depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or Inspector was utilized for the test: 1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates 2. Pass Rate Overall: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Certificate 4. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates Figure 3: Observational scope of research.
  • 24. 1616 5. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 6. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Instructor Certificate 7. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 8. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 9. Pass Rate of Addition Ratings: Instructor Certificate
  • 25. 1717 Pass Rates Overall Beginning with the data collection of pass rates overall of all pilot and instructor certificates; this data was compiled from the combination of data from table 19 and 20 (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015) to outline the following: Measurement 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates, 2.) Pass Rate Overall by Level of Pilot Certificate, and 3.) Pass Rate Overall by Instructor Certificate. Table 1 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Airmen Certificates and Instructor Certificates by Year Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 83.1% 78.3% 84.0% 79.3% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 77.5% 71.9% 79.2% 76.3% Commercial 82.7% 78.2% 84.5% 81.7% ATP 92.7% 86.8% 93.3% 88.1% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 79.3% 76.2% 79.1% 71.1% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.0% 80.0% 84.8% 82.1% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.7% 75.9% 80.4% 76.4% Commercial 85.4% 82.8% 85.6% 88.8% ATP 93.4% 87.8% 92.8% 89.4% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 80.7% 73.7% 80.6% 73.9% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.1% 85.3% 84.8% 80.8% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.8% 79.6% 79.6% 71.3% Commercial 85.2% 90.1% 85.7% 89.9% ATP 92.5% 92.9% 92.2% 90.2% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.9% 78.5% 81.6% 80.8% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.4% 80.9% 84.0% 84.8% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 79.2% 70.5% 80.0% 84.4% Commercial 85.2% 91.9% 85.3% 87.6% ATP 91.9% 88.1% 91.0% 88.0% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.5% 73.2% 79.9% 79.3% 2008 2007 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
  • 26. 1818 Table 1 Continued Table 2 Pass Rates Overall: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.5% 81.7% 84.2% 83.7% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 80.7% 72.8% 81.4% 72.1% Commercial 85.8% 88.8% 86.5% 91.6% ATP 91.2% 86.7% 88.9% 88.5% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 80.1% 78.4% 80.0% 82.8% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.5% 86.9% 85.0% 84.8% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 82.7% 79.1% 82.5% 75.9% Commercial 87.4% 90.8% 86.5% 89.2% ATP 89.7% 91.2% 89.8% 88.8% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 82.1% 86.5% 81.0% 85.4% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.5% 87.5% 84.8% 87.2% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 83.1% 78.2% 82.1% 80.9% Commercial 87.8% 93.1% 87.2% 93.3% ATP 89.3% 91.6% 88.8% 87.8% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.6% 87.0% 81.0% 86.8% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 85.6% 89.3% 86.0% 82.8% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate Private 82.9% 83.3% 82.7% 60.3% Commercial 87.8% 93.8% 89.2% 93.9% ATP 89.5% 90.8% 89.2% 90.3% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 82.3% 89.1% 83.0% 86.7% 1999 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Examiner Inspector 1.) Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates 84.8% 83.5% 2.) Pass Rate by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.0% 75.6% Commercial 86.1% 89.1% ATP 91.0% 89.2% 3.) Pass Rate by Instructor Certificate 81.0% 80.6% Aggregate Average
  • 27. 1919 Pass Rates of Initial Ratings The following data collection of pass rates for initial airmen ratings is the data from Table 19: Original Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015): Measurement 4.) Pass Rate of Initial Ratings of All Certificates, 5.) Pass Rate of Initial Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate, and 6.) Pass Rate of Initial Ratings by Instructor Certificate. Table 3 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Year. Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 76.6% 73.5% 77.2% 71.8% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 73.9% 71.2% 74.2% 60.0% Commercial 75.2% 69.6% 77.8% 75.5% ATP 88.9% 82.1% 90.4% 83.4% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.3% 71.1% 66.5% 68.4% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78% 73.2% 78.7% 77.5% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 75.6% 65.5% 76.7% 71.0% Commercial 79.1% 78.1% 79.8% 84.5% ATP 90.4% 81.6% 89.1% 86.0% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.7% 67.5% 69.1% 68.5% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 79.0% 78.6% 79.1% 77.7% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 77.2% 67.1% 77.5% 68.5% Commercial 79.4% 83.9% 81.0% 87.9% ATP 88.0% 90.6% 87.2% 85.5% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 71.3% 72.6% 70.6% 68.6% 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
  • 28. 2020 Table 3 Continued Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.5% 78.0% 77.3% 80.3% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 76.7% 65.4% 77.0% 79.8% Commercial 79.9% 89.7% 79.5% 83.1% ATP 87.2% 84.3% 86.0% 83.5% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 70.2% 72.5% 66.5% 74.7% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 76.6% 73.3% 75.6% 76.0% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 76.8% 60.3% 76.3% 62.5% Commercial 78.6% 80.7% 79.1% 85.8% ATP 86.0% 78.2% 82.3% 82.0% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 65.0% 74.2% 64.7% 73.7% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 77.9% 80.3% 77.3% 77.5% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 78.7% 69.7% 78.8% 66.4% Commercial 80.1% 86.4% 79.6% 84.0% ATP 84.3% 87.5% 84.4% 84.4% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.4% 77.5% 66.5% 75.2% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.7% 82.1% 78.2% 81.8% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 80.4% 69.8% 80.1% 73.6% Commercial 82.3% 91.1% 81.9% 92.3% ATP 83.9% 89.4% 83.9% 83.8% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.2% 77.9% 67.0% 77.6% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 79.8% 85.0% 79.8% 76.2% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.3% 79.7% 80.4% 51.0% Commercial 83.5% 91.9% 84.7% 90.9% ATP 85.6% 88.6% 84.7% 87.6% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.9% 79.7% 69.5% 75.4% 2000 1999 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2007
  • 29. 2121 Table 4 Pass Rates for Initial Rating: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average Pass Rates of Additional Ratings The following data collection of pass rates for initial airmen ratings was compiled from the data from Table 20: Additional Airmen Certificates Approved/Disapproved by Category and Conductor (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015): Measurement 7.) Pass Rate of Additional Ratings of All Certificates, 8.) Pass Rate of Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate, and 9.) Pass Rate of Additional Ratings by Instructor Certificate. Table 5 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Year Examiner Inspector 4.) Pass Rate Initial Rating of All Certificates 78.0% 77.7% 5.) Pass Rate Initially by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 77.6% 67.6% Commercial 80.1% 84.7% ATP 86.4% 84.9% 6.) Pass Rate by Initial Instructor Certificate 68.1% 73.4% Aggregate Average Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 89.6% 83.0% 90.8% 86.8% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.1% 72.5% 84.2% 92.5% Commercial 90.3% 86.8% 91.1% 87.9% ATP 96.5% 91.5% 96.3% 92.9% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 90.4% 81.3% 91.7% 73.8% 20132014
  • 30. 2222 Table 5 Continued Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.7% 86.9% 91.0% 86.8% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 85.8% 86.4% 84.2% 81.8% Commercial 91.8% 87.4% 91.3% 93.0% ATP 96.4% 94.0% 96.4% 92.9% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.7% 79.8% 92.1% 79.3% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.2% 92.0% 90.4% 84.0% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.3% 92.2% 81.7% 74.1% Commercial 91.0% 96.2% 90.3% 91.9% ATP 97.0% 95.2% 97.2% 94.9% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.6% 84.5% 92.6% 75.3% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 90.3% 83.8% 90.8% 89.4% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 81.7% 75.6% 83.0% 89.0% Commercial 90.5% 94.0% 91.0% 92.1% ATP 96.5% 91.8% 96.0% 92.5% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 92.7% 73.8% 93.3% 83.9% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 92.3% 90.0% 92.8% 91.5% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.7% 85.3% 86.4% 81.7% Commercial 92.9% 96.9% 93.9% 97.4% ATP 96.3% 95.1% 95.4% 94.9% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.3% 82.7% 95.3% 91.8% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 93.0% 93.5% 92.6% 92.2% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 86.6% 88.5% 86.2% 85.4% Commercial 94.6% 95.2% 93.4% 94.5% ATP 95.2% 94.8% 95.1% 93.3% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.8% 95.6% 95.6% 95.6% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 92.2% 92.9% 91.3% 92.6% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 85.9% 86.6% 84.0% 88.2% Commercial 93.3% 95.1% 92.5% 94.4% ATP 94.7% 93.8% 93.6% 91.7% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 94.9% 96.1% 95.0% 95.9% Examiner Inspector Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.4% 93.5% 92.2% 89.4% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.5% 87.0% 84.9% 69.6% Commercial 92.0% 95.8% 93.7% 96.9% ATP 93.4% 93.0% 93.7% 93.1% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 95.8% 98.4% 96.4% 98.0% 2012 2011 2010 1999 2006 2009 2008 2007 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
  • 31. 2323 Table 6 Pass Rates for Additional Ratings: All Airmen Certificates, Levels of Pilot Certificates, and Instructor Certificates by Aggregated Average Examiner Inspector 7.) Pass Rate On Additional Rating of All Certificates 91.5% 89.3% 8.) Pass Rate Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private 84.3% 83.5% Commercial 92.1% 93.5% ATP 95.6% 93.5% 9.) Pass Rate for Additional Instructor Certificate 93.9% 86.6% Aggregate Average
  • 32. 2424 Chapter V Data Analysis Initial Results This analysis involved FAA pilot check ride first time pass rates for all levels of fixed wing pilot certificates (private pilot, commercial pilot, instrument pilot, airline transport pilot, and flight instructor pilot), depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner (contractor) or an FAA inspector (government employee) was used for the exam; and whether there is a sufficient correlation to a higher pass rate and more successful outcome (probability) of passing the check ride if one were to use a designated pilot examiner versus an FAA Inspector. To properly define the problem for statistical analysis, we needed to define our testing criteria beginning with the confidence interval and defined hypothesis. A two tailed T-test was determined to be appropriate for the defined problem as our sample count is less than thirty over sixteen years and the objective of the analysis is to determine if the two averages (means) for pass rates using an Designated Pilot Examiner differ significantly from the pass rates of an FAA Inspector. Using a 95% confidence interval, we calculate alpha (α) to be 1 - .95, or .05. If the P-value of the two tail T-Test, is less than (or equal to) α, the null hypothesis will be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. If the P-value is greater than α, the null hypothesis will not be rejected. For the purpose of our quantitative analysis problem the Null Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen applicant is not more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen application is more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically.
  • 33. 2525 As previously defined in the research methodology and data collection procedures, the measurements taken to determine statistical differences in pass ratings by conducting the two- tailed T-test is derived over the course of sixteen years from 1999 to 2014 as follows: 1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates 2. Pass Rate Overall: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Certificate 4. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 5. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 6. Pass Rate of Initial Ratings: Instructor Certificate 7. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 8. Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Level of Pilot Certificate – Private, Commercial, ATP 9. Pass Rate of Addition Ratings: Instructor Certificate The following results have been recorded in Table 7 and outline the hypothesis testing metrics that determine whether the null hypothesis should, in turn, be accepted or rejected. Table 7 Two-tailed T-Test Hypothesis Measurement Results Metric P-Value T-Stat T-Critical Two Tail Result Determinatio n Δ Mean Higher Mean 1. Pass Rate Overall: All Pilot Certificates 0.14000 1.56 [-2.12 < T-Stat < 2.12] Accept Null Use Either 1.30% DPE 2. Pass Rate Overall: Private 0.00200 3.56 [-2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Reject Null Use Examiner 5.41% DPE Commercial 0.02300 -2.48 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Inspector 2.99% Insp. Airline Transport Pilot 0.00600 2.95 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Reject Null Use Examiner 1.83% DPE 3. Pass Rate Overall: Instructor Cert. 0.79800 0.25 [-2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Accept Null Use Either 0.39% Insp. 4. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 0.70500 0.38 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Accept Null Use Either 0.37% DPE 5. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: Private 0.00005 5.28 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Examiner 10.02% DPE Commercial 0.01315 2.71 [-2.09 < T-Stat < 2.09] Reject Null Use Inspector 4.61% Insp. Airline Transport Pilot 0.16119 1.43 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Accept Null Use Either 1.47% DPE 6. Pass Rate Initial Ratings: Instructor Cert. 0.00005 5.02 [-2.07 < T-Stat < 2.07] Reject Null Use Inspector 5.36% Insp. 7. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: All Pilot Certificates 0.03100 2.35 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Reject Null Use Examiner 2.20% DPE 8. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: Private 0.67100 0.43 [-2.10 < T-Stat < 2.10] Accept Null Use Either 0.78% DPE Commercial 0.15700 1.47 [ -2.08 < T-Stat < 2.08] Accept Null Use Either 1.36% Insp. Airline Transport Pilot 0.00003 2.35 [-2.04 < T-Stat < 2.04] Reject Null Use Examiner 2.16% DPE 9. Pass Rate Additional Ratings: Instructor Cert. 0.00637 3.13 [ -2.11 < T-Stat < 2.11] Reject Null Use Examiner 7.28% DPE
  • 34. 2626 In Table 7 we get a first look at the results from analyzing the data in Tables 1 thru 6. Out of fifteen measurements there is a statistically significant difference in nine of those measurements that prove an airman is more likely to pass their practical test on the first attempt if they specifically use a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector as the conductor for the test. In looking at measurement one for pass rates overall of all pilot certificates, it is noted there is not a statistically significant difference (a measurable difference of 1.3% on average) on passing the flight test on the first attempt if an airmen utilizes a Designate Pilot Examiner versus an FAA Inspector. In looking at measurement two for the private level, commercial level, and airline transport pilot level of pilot certificates it is statistically significant to specifically use a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the flight tests. Overall at the private level, it is more advantageous to a Designated Pilot Examiner and significantly so; there is a 5.41% difference in the mean pass rate for a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector. Overall at the commercial level, it is more advantageous to utilize an FAA Inspector for the flight test, again, significantly so as there is a mean difference of 2.99% in the pass rate with that of a Designated Pilot Examiner. Overall at the airline transport level, the highest grade of pilot certification designated by the FAA; it is more advantageous to utilize a Designate Pilot Examiner for the flight test. For the flight instructors in measurement three, overall there is not a statistically significant difference in passing the examination on the first attempt whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is used. In looking at measurement four for pass rates of all pilot certificates on an initial fixed wing rating, it is noted there is not a statistically significant difference (a measurable difference of 0.37% on average) on passing the flight test on the first attempt if an airmen utilizes a
  • 35. 2727 Designate Pilot Examiner versus an FAA Inspector. In looking at measurement five for the private level, commercial level, and airline transport pilot level of pilot certificates it is statistically significant to specifically use a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the private and commercial level initial airmen rating flight tests. Initially at the private level, it is more advantageous to a Designated Pilot Examiner and significantly so; there is a 10.02% difference in the mean pass rate for a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector. It should be noted in Figure 10 there is an outlier in the data for the FAA Inspector pass rate in 1999, which was only a 51.0% pass rate; this contributed significantly to the difference of 10.02% difference in the means of the pass rates. Initially at the commercial level, it is more advantageous to utilize an FAA Inspector for the flight test, again, significantly so as there is a mean difference of 4.61% in the pass rate with that of a Designated Pilot Examiner. Initially at the airline transport level, it is neither more advantageous to utilize a Designate Pilot Examiner for the flight test versus an FAA Inspector. However, according to Figure 12, in the past four to five years it appears to be more significant to use a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass the initial flight test on the first attempt. For the flight instructors in measurement six, on their initial instructor rating there is a statistically significant difference in passing the examination on the first attempt if an FAA Inspector is used. This is a significant find in the research as the conceived notion is that it is much more beneficial to take the initial certificated flight instructor examination with a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector (CITE). There is also a significant favor here towards the FAA Inspector as well at a 5.36% difference in the means between the pass rates. Figure 13 shows that the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have risen in the past six years to come closer but it is still more beneficial to take your initial
  • 36. 2828 instructor rating with an FAA Inspector as either the local FSDO or another FSDO office in a different region of the country. When airmen are adding an additional fixed wing pilot rating to a current one, the data and statistics tell a different story than the overall and initial certification pass rates. In measurement seven it is discovered that when looking at all levels of pilot certificates for an additional rating it is more beneficial to utilize a Designate Pilot Examiner for the practical test. In looking at measurement 8 for the additional ratings of private pilot and commercial pilot, there is not a statistically significant difference in whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is utilized for the flight test. Figure 15 and 16 shows the close relationship between the regression lines for the pass rates which also suggests there is not a statistically significant difference in whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is utilized for additional ratings at the private and commercial levels. When adding an Airline Transport Pilot rating to a current fixed wing certificate it is statistically more beneficial to use a Designated Pilot Examiner for the flight examination to a tune of a 2.16% different in the mean pass rate with that of an FAA Inspector. This is further realized by Figure 17 which outlines the further separation of the regression lines between the pass rates of Designate Pilot Examiners versus FAA Inspectors as time goes on. When adding an instructor rating as an additional certificate it is clearly more beneficial to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner, so much so that there is a difference of 7.28% in the mean pass rates. Figure 17 supports this conclusion when viewing the additional instructor rating pass rates for a Designated Pilot Examiner to that of an FAA Inspector over time. At the top level, there are mixed results on pass rates for airmen depending on whether a Designate Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector is utilized for the flight test. In Figures 4 thru 18, the data discloses further findings when plotted over time at different rate intervals.
  • 37. 2929 A Closer Look After discovering the results in Table 7 for measurements one through nine, there was additional observations discovered that could lead to the discovery of further trends and data points. The opportunity was taken to plot the data for each of the fifteen categories in Table 7 over sixteen years on a line graph with linear regression analysis lines. The linear regression analysis lines were plotted so changes during certain time periods within the sixteen years of data could be analyzed in addition to the overall picture. Beginning with Figure 4 for measurement one, the pass rate overall for all levels of pilot certificates, the sixteen points for both the Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector pass rates are graphed with a thirteen point interval range from 77% to 90%. A conclusion can be drawn that the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have remained consistent with a negative overall trend to a lower pass rate from 85.7% at the highest average point to 84% at the lowest point. Regression analysis for the FAA Inspector revealed step decline in average pass rates from 87.5% in 1999 to 79.5% on average in 2014. There is a noticeable widening gap in the pass rates levels from Designated Pilot Examiner to FAA Inspector from 2011 and lastly in 2014. Figure 4: Measurement 1: Pass rate overall of all pilot certificates. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 83.1%84.0%85.0%84.8%85.1%84.8%84.4%84.0%84.5%84.2%85.5%85.0%85.5%84.8%85.6%86.0% Inspector 78.3%79.3%80.0%82.1%85.3%80.8%80.9%84.8%81.7%83.7%86.9%84.8%87.5%87.2%89.3%82.8% 83.1% 84.0% 85.0% 84.8% 85.1% 84.8% 84.4% 84.0% 84.5% 84.2% 85.5% 85.0% 85.5% 84.8% 85.6% 86.0% 78.3% 79.3% 80.0% 82.1% 85.3% 80.8%80.9% 84.8% 81.7% 83.7% 86.9% 84.8% 87.5% 87.2% 89.3% 82.8% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0% 82.0% 83.0% 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rate Overall of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 38. 3030 Taking a look into Figure 5 for the overall pass rate at the private pilot certificate level, there are outliers that can be identified. Beginning in1999 the FAA Inspector pass rate was at a low of 60.3%. In 2000 the FAA Inspector pass rates catch up to the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates, but the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates remain much more consistent with an overall decline from an average of 83% at the highest point to 78% at its lowest most recently in 2014. The FAA Inspector pass rates continued to have another outlier in 2007 with an overall high pass rate of 84.4%, causing the average over sixteen years to remain relatively flat from an average of 75.3% at the lowest to 76% at the highest average in 2016. The Designated Pilot Examiners not only have the higher pass rates here but some consistency as well; the highest average is 83.0% in 1999 declining five points to 78% overall by 2014. Despite the FAA Inspectors average being flat, we must not forget the outliers and large swings in pass rates that influence the regression line. An observation is also be made the as of 2014 the Designated Pilot Examiners had a 5.6% higher pass rate as the Inspector rate was at a near average low of 71.9%. Figure 5: Measurement 2a: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – private. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 77.5%79.2%80.7%80.4%80.8%79.6%79.2%80.0%80.7%81.4%82.7%82.5%83.1%82.1%82.9%82.7% Inspector 71.9%76.3%75.9%76.4%79.6%71.3%70.5%84.4%72.8%72.1%79.1%75.9%78.2%80.9%83.3%60.3% 77.5% 79.2% 80.7%80.4% 80.8% 79.6% 79.2% 80.0% 80.7% 81.4% 82.7%82.5% 83.1% 82.1% 82.9%82.7% 71.9% 76.3% 75.9% 76.4% 79.6% 71.3% 70.5% 84.4% 72.8% 72.1% 79.1% 75.9% 78.2% 80.9% 83.3% 60.3%60.0% 61.5% 63.0% 64.5% 66.0% 67.5% 69.0% 70.5% 72.0% 73.5% 75.0% 76.5% 78.0% 79.5% 81.0% 82.5% 84.0% P a s s R a t e Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 39. 3131 Once again, in Figure 6 for measurement two, the overall pass rate for the commercial level of pilot certificate the FAA Inspector pass rates vary greatly after beginning with an overall average high near 94% dropping to an all-time low of 78.2% in 2014; a spread of sixteen points. There was a negative spread of five points from the highest pass rate for Designated Pilot Examiners in 1999 to 2014 at their lowest pass rate of 82.7%. Again, we see an overall decrease in the pass rates for both Designated Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspectors. The average ending result as of 2014 appears that it would be more advantageous to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner, however according to the results in Table 7; it is still statistically advantageous to use a FAA Inspector for the practical test. Figure 6: Measurement 2b: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – commercial. In Figure 7 for measurement two, pass rate overall by airline transport pilot paints a very interesting picture. The Table 7 T-Test results yielded that a Designated Pilot Examiner should be utilized for the practical test. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates rose five points on average from 88.5% to 93.5% over sixteen years strengthening the case to be sure airman 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 82.7%84.5%85.4%85.6%85.2%85.7%85.2%85.3%85.8%86.5%87.4%86.5%87.8%87.2%87.8%89.2% Inspector 78.2%81.7%82.8%88.8%90.1%89.9%91.9%87.6%88.8%91.6%90.8%89.2%93.1%93.3%93.8%93.9% 82.7% 84.5% 85.4%85.6% 85.2% 85.7% 85.2%85.3% 85.8% 86.5% 87.4% 86.5% 87.8% 87.2% 87.8% 89.2% 78.2% 81.7% 82.8% 88.8% 90.1% 89.9% 91.9% 87.6% 88.8% 91.6% 90.8% 89.2% 93.1% 93.3% 93.8%93.9% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0% 82.0% 83.0% 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0% P a s s R a t e Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 40. 3232 consider a Designated pilot examiner for their practical test. The pass rates for the FAA Inspectors fluctuate greatly every two to three years, ending in a much lower pass rate by six points as compared to the Designated Pilot Examiners for 2014. Taking a closer look at the data over seven points on the vertical axis we can see the growing gap in average pass rates between Designated Pilot Examiners versus FAA Inspectors. Observing the results from 1999, 2000, and 2001 there was only about one percentage point difference in the pass rates; taking a big change in direction around 2003 where an inverse relationship between the pass rates began. Figure 7: Measurement 2c: Pass rate overall by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. Figure 8 outlines the results for measurement three; the pass rates overall for certificated flight instructor candidates. Again, it is observed the widely varying pass rates for utilizing an FAA Inspector range fifteen points at the largest different to an average difference of seventeen points from 1999 to 2014. The Designated Pilot Examiner rates remain steady with an overall decline in the average pass rate by about 4.0%. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 92.7%93.3%93.4%92.8%92.5%92.2%91.9%91.0%91.2%88.9%89.7%89.8%89.3%88.8%89.5%89.2% Inspector 86.8%88.1%87.8%89.4%92.9%90.2%88.1%88.0%86.7%88.5%91.2%88.8%91.6%87.8%90.8%90.3% 92.7% 93.3%93.4% 92.8% 92.5% 92.2% 91.9% 91.0% 91.2% 88.9% 89.7%89.8% 89.3% 88.8% 89.5% 89.2% 86.8% 88.1% 87.8% 89.4% 92.9% 90.2% 88.1% 88.0% 86.7% 88.5% 91.2% 88.8% 91.6% 87.8% 90.8% 90.3% 86.5% 87.0% 87.5% 88.0% 88.5% 89.0% 89.5% 90.0% 90.5% 91.0% 91.5% 92.0% 92.5% 93.0% 93.5% P a s s R a t e Overall Pass Rates by Level of Pilot Certificate: ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 41. 3333 Figure 8: Measurement 3: Pass rate overall for instructor certificates. With the exception of the airline transport pilot test in measurement two, the overall pass rate trends indicate it is becoming more challenging to become a certificated pilot and instructor on the first attempt in modern day times up to and potentially after 2014. Figure 9 for measurement four, pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates outlines the initial breakdown for the first measurement in initial ratings for pilot certificates. The FAA Inspector pass rates vary greatly once again at a spread of up to fourteen points while the Designated Pilot Examiner’s held a respectable spread of three points on average while showing a relatively low average pass rate around 77%. An interesting trend is continuing to be established with the volatility in FAA Inspector pass rates for practical tests over the sixteen years data was available from 1999 to 2014. It is also interesting to note the inverse relationship that begins with the FAA Inspectors pass rates being a higher average with the Designated Pilot Examiners being lower until the future when the consistency in pass rates for the Designated Pilot Examiners proves to provide a higher overall pass rate by 2006. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 79.3%79.1%80.7%80.6%81.9%81.6%81.5%79.9%80.1%80.0%82.1%81.0%81.6%81.0%82.3%83.0% Inspector 76.2%71.1%73.7%73.9%78.5%80.8%73.2%79.3%78.4%82.8%86.5%85.4%87.0%86.8%89.1%86.7% 79.3%79.1% 80.7%80.6% 81.9% 81.6%81.5% 79.9%80.1%80.0% 82.1% 81.0% 81.6% 81.0% 82.3% 83.0% 76.2% 71.1% 73.7% 73.9% 78.5% 80.8% 73.2% 79.3% 78.4% 82.8% 86.5% 85.4% 87.0% 86.8% 89.1% 86.7% 70.5% 71.5% 72.5% 73.5% 74.5% 75.5% 76.5% 77.5% 78.5% 79.5% 80.5% 81.5% 82.5% 83.5% 84.5% 85.5% 86.5% 87.5% 88.5% 89.5% P a s s R a t e Overall Pass Rates by Instructor Certificate with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 42. 3434 Figure 9: Measurement 4: Pass rate of initial ratings for all pilot certificates. Figure 10 for measurement five outlines the pass rates for initial ratings of private pilot certificates. Again there is volatility in the pass rates for FAA Inspectors with an outlier at 51% in 1999; this was taken in consideration when the regression line was plotted showing an overall flat rate change at 67.5%. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates have remained fairly constant with a spread of roughly 6%; remaining in a constant decline once again. This measurement graph is also the first representation the regression line average for Designated Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspectors that has had the largest spread at the beginning of the average data results. It is also the first two measurable regression lines that have not crossed within the data field. Similar to previous observations we see the overall decline in pass rates for both the Designated Pilot Examiners and FAA Inspector for the initial private pilot practical tests. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 76.6%77.2%78%78.7%79.0%79.1%78.5%77.3%76.6%75.6%77.9%77.3%78.7%78.2%79.8%79.8% Inspector 73.5%71.8%73.2%77.5%78.6%77.7%78.0%80.3%73.3%76.0%80.3%77.5%82.1%81.8%85.0%76.2% 76.6% 77.2% 78% 78.7% 79.0%79.1% 78.5% 77.3% 76.6% 75.6% 77.9% 77.3% 78.7% 78.2% 79.8%79.8% 73.5% 71.8% 73.2% 77.5% 78.6% 77.7% 78.0% 80.3% 73.3% 76.0% 80.3% 77.5% 82.1% 81.8% 85.0% 76.2% 71.5% 72.5% 73.5% 74.5% 75.5% 76.5% 77.5% 78.5% 79.5% 80.5% 81.5% 82.5% 83.5% 84.5% 85.5% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Initial Rating of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 43. 3535 Figure 10: Measurement 5a: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. Figure 11 for measurement five outlines the initial rating pass rates for the commercial pilot certificates. Again, it is observed that the FAA Inspectors have varying data points with a steep decline in pass rates over the sixteen years measured. Designated Pilot Examiners also Figure 11: Measurement 5b: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 73.9%74.2%75.6%76.7%77.2%77.5%76.7%77.0%76.8%76.3%78.7%78.8%80.4%80.1%81.3%80.4% Inspector 71.2%60.0%65.5%71.0%67.1%68.5%65.4%79.8%60.3%62.5%69.7%66.4%69.8%73.6%79.7%51.0% 73.9%74.2% 75.6% 76.7% 77.2%77.5% 76.7% 77.0% 76.8% 76.3% 78.7%78.8% 80.4% 80.1% 81.3% 80.4% 71.2% 60.0% 65.5% 71.0% 67.1% 68.5% 65.4% 79.8% 60.3% 62.5% 69.7% 66.4% 69.8% 73.6% 79.7% 51.0% 51.0% 52.5% 54.0% 55.5% 57.0% 58.5% 60.0% 61.5% 63.0% 64.5% 66.0% 67.5% 69.0% 70.5% 72.0% 73.5% 75.0% 76.5% 78.0% 79.5% 81.0% 82.5% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector) 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 75.2%77.8%79.1%79.8%79.4%81.0%79.9%79.5%78.6%79.1%80.1%79.6%82.3%81.9%83.5%84.7% Inspector 69.6%75.5%78.1%84.5%83.9%87.9%89.7%83.1%80.7%85.8%86.4%84.0%91.1%92.3%91.9%90.9% 75.2% 77.8% 79.1% 79.8% 79.4% 81.0% 79.9% 79.5% 78.6% 79.1% 80.1% 79.6% 82.3% 81.9% 83.5% 84.7% 69.6% 75.5% 78.1% 84.5% 83.9% 87.9% 89.7% 83.1% 80.7% 85.8% 86.4% 84.0% 91.1%92.3% 91.9% 90.9% 69.5% 71.0% 72.5% 74.0% 75.5% 77.0% 78.5% 80.0% 81.5% 83.0% 84.5% 86.0% 87.5% 89.0% 90.5% 92.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 44. 3636 have a steady decline in pass rates again across a ten point spread. We also can conclude that as time develops so do the declining pass rates for initial commercial pilot applicants. Table 7 outlines that a FAA Inspector should be utilized for the test, but noting the decline in pass rates from 2012 to 2014, some airman could be swayed to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner despite an FAA Inspector being the better option statistically. Figure 12 for measurement five outlines the pass rates for initial airline transport pilot applicants. Here we find widely varying data points among a thirteen point data spread. It is interesting to note the FAA Inspectors pass rate once again start out higher on average and ends up seven points lower than the Designated Pilot Examiners pass rates. The Designated Pilot Examiner rates remain somewhat steady across a spread of five points with a positive linear trend. Given this is the highest rating for pilots to obtain, it is not surprising to see pass rates that have never exceeded 90.6%. Figure 12: Measurement 5c: Pass rate of initial ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 88.9%90.4%90.4%89.1%88.0%87.2%87.2%86.0%86.0%82.3%84.3%84.4%83.9%83.9%85.6%84.7% Inspector 82.1%83.4%81.6%86.0%90.6%85.5%84.3%83.5%78.2%82.0%87.5%84.4%89.4%83.8%88.6%87.6% 88.9% 90.4%90.4% 89.1% 88.0% 87.2%87.2% 86.0% 86.0% 82.3% 84.3%84.4% 83.9% 83.9% 85.6% 84.7% 82.1% 83.4% 81.6% 86.0% 90.6% 85.5% 84.3% 83.5% 78.2% 82.0% 87.5% 84.4% 89.4% 83.8% 88.6% 87.6% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0% 82.0% 83.0% 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Initial Rating by Level of Pilot Certificate: ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 45. 3737 Figure 13 for measurement six outlines the initial pass rates for instructor candidates. Initial instructor ratings have been known to be one of the toughest practical tests for airmen (Hiner). Hence, it is not surprising to see the pass rates hover between 64% and 79%, never to break the 80% mark. Table 7 outlines that it is statistically significant to utilize an FAA Inspector for the test, while the average trend lines are meeting indicating that with future data being a possibility, it could very well be a different story in the future for the initial instructor candidates who are seeking their initial certification to teach. It is also interesting to note how the average regression lines begin so far apart and meet by 2014, quite a dramatic change for the FAA Inspectors starting at 79% and ending at 68%. Figure 13: Measurement 6: Pass rate of initial ratings for instructor certificates. Figure 14 for measurement seven outlines the pass rate data for additional rating overall of all pilot certificates. FAA Inspector pass rates remain to vary widely amongst the sixteen years of observations with a 10.5% spread between the highest and lowest observations. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates remained steadily constant within a 3.4% spread. FAA 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 68.3%66.5%68.7%69.1%71.3%70.6%70.2%66.5%65.0%64.7%68.4%66.5%68.2%67.0%68.9%69.5% Inspector 71.1%68.4%67.5%68.5%72.6%68.6%72.5%74.7%74.2%73.7%77.5%75.2%77.9%77.6%79.7%75.4% 68.3% 66.5% 68.7% 69.1% 71.3% 70.6% 70.2% 66.5% 65.0% 64.7% 68.4% 66.5% 68.2% 67.0% 68.9% 69.5% 71.1% 68.4% 67.5% 68.5% 72.6% 68.6% 72.5% 74.7% 74.2% 73.7% 77.5% 75.2% 77.9% 77.6% 79.7% 75.4% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 68.0% 69.0% 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates for Initial Instructor Certificate with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 46. 3838 Inspector pass rates also started off as the higher average getting passed up by the more consistent Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates around 2001. The additional rating pass rates went down again for both the Designated Pilot Examiner and FAA Inspector pass rates as 2014 was finally recorded. It is interesting to note there are four outlier data points for the FAA Inspectors which are more outliers than have been noted thus far. Figure 14: Measurement 7: Pass rate of additional ratings for all pilot certificates. Figure 15 for measurement eight presents the pass rate data for the additional rating of adding a private pilot certificate. The data tells another interesting story as we see a 23% spread in the FAA Inspector pass rates for the addition of a private pilot certificate. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates continue to remain consistent with a more normalized spread of 5.5% over sixteen years. It is important to note the FAA Inspectors finish in 2014 with the higher average pass rate based on the regression line placement around the eighty fourth percentile. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates also finish with a much higher final pass for 2014 at 81.1%; while the FAA Inspectors pass rate finished 2014 at 72.5%. Table 7 outlines that the 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 89.6%90.8%91.7%91.0%91.2%90.4%90.3%90.8%92.3%92.8%93.0%92.6%92.2%91.3%91.4%92.2% Inspector 83.0%86.8%86.9%86.8%92.0%84.0%83.8%89.4%90.0%91.5%93.5%92.2%92.9%92.6%93.5%89.4% 89.6% 90.8% 91.7% 91.0% 91.2% 90.4%90.3% 90.8% 92.3% 92.8% 93.0% 92.6% 92.2% 91.3% 91.4% 92.2% 83.0% 86.8%86.9% 86.8% 92.0% 84.0% 83.8% 89.4% 90.0% 91.5% 93.5% 92.2% 92.9%92.6% 93.5% 89.4% 83.0% 83.5% 84.0% 84.5% 85.0% 85.5% 86.0% 86.5% 87.0% 87.5% 88.0% 88.5% 89.0% 89.5% 90.0% 90.5% 91.0% 91.5% 92.0% 92.5% 93.0% 93.5% 94.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Additional Ratings of All Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 47. 3939 statistical analysis determines either a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for the examination with no likely difference in the outcome. However, if consistency and recency is important to an airman candidate then a Designated Pilot Examiner may be the better option. Figure 15: Measurement 8a: Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – private. Figure 18 for measurement eight outlines the pass rates for adding the commercial pilot rating onto an existing airman certificate. Again we see the FAA Inspector pass rates varying greatly with a 10.6% spread between the highest and lowest observations. The FAA Inspector pass rates also are initially favored at a higher average by 4.0%. The Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates remained consistent with a spread of 3.6% over the sixteen years of data collection from 1999 to 2014. It is important to also note that the FAA Inspector pass rates are favored beginning in 1999 and are passed up for the Designated Pilot Examiner pass rates in 2010. Given the more consistent pass rates of the Designated Pilot Examiner and the higher ending data point in 2014 of 90.3% it may be more beneficial to utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner despite there being no statistical significance according to Table 7 in the statistical findings.. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 81.1%84.2%85.8%84.2%84.3%81.7%81.7%83.0%84.7%86.4%86.6%86.2%85.9%84.0%84.5%84.9% Inspector 72.5%92.5%86.4%81.8%92.2%74.1%75.6%89.0%85.3%81.7%88.5%85.4%86.6%88.2%87.0%69.6% 81.1% 84.2%85.8%84.2%84.3% 81.7%81.7% 83.0% 84.7% 86.4%86.6% 86.2% 85.9% 84.0% 84.5% 84.9% 72.5% 92.5% 86.4% 81.8% 92.2% 74.1% 75.6% 89.0% 85.3% 81.7% 88.5% 85.4% 86.6% 88.2% 87.0% 69.6% 69.0% 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0% 82.0% 83.0% 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Private with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 48. 4040 Figure 16: Measurement 8b: Pass Rate of Additional Ratings: Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – commercial. Figure 17 for measurement eight outlines the pass rates for adding an airline transport rating to an existing airman certificate. In this data set the data point spread it much more Figure 17: Measurement 8c: Pass rate of additional ratings by level of pilot certificate – airline transport pilot. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 90.3%91.1%91.8%91.3%91.0%90.3%90.5%91.0%92.9%93.9%94.6%93.4%93.3%92.5%92.0%93.7% Inspector 86.8%87.9%87.4%93.0%96.2%91.9%94.0%92.1%96.9%97.4%95.2%94.5%95.1%94.4%95.8%96.9% 90.3% 91.1% 91.8% 91.3% 91.0% 90.3%90.5% 91.0% 92.9% 93.9%94.6% 93.4%93.3% 92.5% 92.0% 93.7% 86.8% 87.9% 87.4% 93.0% 96.2% 91.9% 94.0% 92.1% 96.9% 97.4% 95.2% 94.5% 95.1% 94.4% 95.8% 96.9% 86.5% 87.0% 87.5% 88.0% 88.5% 89.0% 89.5% 90.0% 90.5% 91.0% 91.5% 92.0% 92.5% 93.0% 93.5% 94.0% 94.5% 95.0% 95.5% 96.0% 96.5% 97.0% 97.5% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: Commercial with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector) 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 96.5%96.3%96.4%96.4%97.0%97.2%96.5%96.0%96.3%95.4%95.2%95.1%94.7%93.6%93.4%93.7% Inspector 91.5%92.9%94.0%92.9%95.2%94.9%91.8%92.5%95.1%94.9%94.8%93.3%93.8%91.7%93.0%93.1% 96.5% 96.3% 96.4% 96.4% 97.0% 97.2% 96.5% 96.0% 96.3% 95.4% 95.2%95.1% 94.7% 93.6% 93.4% 93.7% 91.5% 92.9% 94.0% 92.9% 95.2% 94.9% 91.8% 92.5% 95.1% 94.9% 94.8% 93.3% 93.8% 91.7% 93.0% 93.1% 91.3% 91.8% 92.3% 92.8% 93.3% 93.8% 94.3% 94.8% 95.3% 95.8% 96.3% 96.8% 97.3% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Additional Ratings by Level of Pilot Certificate: ATP with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 49. 4141 consistent for both FAA Inspectors and Designated Pilot Examiners. Table 7 outlines that utilizing a Designated Pilot Examiner for the practical test is the statistically sound choice for an airmen candidate. The gap between the average pass rates for Designated Pilot Examiners versus FAA Inspectors continues to grow with the regression line remaining positive for the Designated Pilot Examiners and negative for the FAA Inspectors. Figure 18 for measurement nine outlines the pass rates for adding on instructor rating to an existing instructor certificate. Again it is noted the FAA Inspector pass rates vary greatly from 98.4% to 73.8%, a spread of 24.6%. The Designated Pilot Examiners pass rates remain consistent with a more manageable spread of 6.0%. Initially the FAA Inspector pass rates were higher on average again getting passed up by the more consistent pass rate of the Designated Pilot Examiners in 2001. Table 7 outlines that a Designated Pilot Examiner is the statistically sound choice for airmen to more likely pass the examination on the first attempt. Figure 18: Measurement 9: Pass rate of additional ratings for instructor certificates. 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999 Examiner 90.4%91.7%92.7%92.1%92.6%92.6%92.7%93.3%95.3%95.3%95.8%95.6%94.9%95.0%95.8%96.4% Inspector 81.3%73.8%79.8%79.3%84.5%75.3%73.8%83.9%82.7%91.8%95.6%95.6%96.1%95.9%98.4%98.0% 90.4% 91.7% 92.7% 92.1% 92.6%92.6%92.7% 93.3% 95.3%95.3% 95.8%95.6% 94.9%95.0% 95.8% 96.4% 81.3% 73.8% 79.8% 79.3% 84.5% 75.3% 73.8% 83.9% 82.7% 91.8% 95.6%95.6% 96.1%95.9% 98.4% 98.0% 73.0% 74.5% 76.0% 77.5% 79.0% 80.5% 82.0% 83.5% 85.0% 86.5% 88.0% 89.5% 91.0% 92.5% 94.0% 95.5% 97.0% 98.5% P a s s R a t e Pass Rates on Additional Ratings for Instructor Certificates with an Examiner vs. Inspector Examiner Inspector Linear (Examiner) Linear (Inspector)
  • 50. 4242 Chapter VI Conclusions Summary In the beginning of this study the objective was to determine if an airmen applicant was more likely to pass their practical airmen tests if they specifically use a contracted Designated Pilot Examiner or government sponsored FAA Inspector. The Null Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen applicant is not more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector instead of the other. The Alternative Hypothesis was defined as: An airmen application is more likely to pass their flight examination on the first attempt if they use a Designated Pilot Examiner or an FAA Inspector specifically for the flight test being. The two tailed T-test was determined appropriate for the defined problem as our sample count is less than thirty over a time span sixteen years and the objective of the analysis was to determine if the two averages (means) for pass rates using a Designated Pilot Examiner differ significantly from the pass rates of an FAA Inspector. Using a 95% confidence interval, we calculated alpha (α) to be 1 - .95, or .05. Some of the P-values of the two tail T-Test, were less than (or equal to) α. The null hypothesis was rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis in nine out of fifteen measurements; meaning that they T-stat score fell outside of the T-critical test range. In six of the fifteen measurements the P-value was greater than α, and the null hypotheses was accepted or not rejected; also meaning the T-stat score fell within the T-critical test range. A More Specific Overview of Research In Chapter II the following questions were specifically derived to approach the data analysis with a distinct objective in mind:
  • 51. 4343 Are you better off taking a flight test check ride with a Designated Pilot Examiner to pass on the first attempt overall? Statistically from a top level perspective, measurements one, and four revealed that from an overall and initial rating approach you are not more likely to pass the examination with an examiner; utilizing an FAA Inspector would be statistically equal and there is a more advantageous cost savings. Measurement seven did reveal that an airmen is more likely to pass your additional ratings overall if you use a Designated Pilot Examiner instead of a FAA Inspector by 2.20% difference in the mean. The answer to the question is that the results are inconclusive and depending on how the applicant values their money a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector could be more beneficial for airmen practical tests overall when looking at pass rates for all levels of pilot certificates. Overall if funds were not an issue at $1,600 USD for the practical tests the applicant would be better of considering a Designated Pilot Examiner for all levels of certificates except commercial. Perhaps it is more valuable to the airmen applicant if more conclusive conclusions can be drawn from the more bottom level, specific data results of the initial and additional rating results. For initial airmen and instructor rating practical tests versus adding on a rating to a current pilot or instructor certificate, is it more beneficial to use a Designate Pilot Examiner to pass on the first attempt? Measurements two, three, five, six, eight, and nine give the statistical insight into the more specific pass rates by level of pilot certificate whether private, commercial, airline transport pilot, or certificated flight instructor. Measurement two for overall pass rates outlines that it is more beneficial to specifically use a Designate Pilot Examiner for the private practical test, an FAA Inspector for the commercial practical test, and a Designated Pilot Examiner for the airline
  • 52. 4444 transport pilot level practical test. Measurement three for the overall pass rate of certificated flight instructors does not follow suit and outlines that either an FAA Inspector or Designate Pilot Examiner could be used for the practical examination. Measurement five for pass rates of initial ratings outlines that an airmen applicant is more likely to pass their private level examination on the first attempt if they utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner and by a wide margin; a 10.02% difference in the average mean. For a commercial level applicant applying for an initial rating they have a statistically better chance of passing their practical test on the first attempt if they utilize an FAA Inspector. An airline transport pilot applicant is neither better of taking their examination with a Designate Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector, unless they value saving their examination fee requirement by the examiner. Measurement six outlines that a certificated flight instructor applicant is significantly better off using an FAA Inspector free of charge for the practical test examination by a 5.36% difference in the mean; this is a significant finding in that it is a common notion among the nation’s leading flight training programs that it is more beneficial for initial certificated flight instructor applicants to take their practical tests with Designated Pilot Examiners instead of FAA Inspectors, even if it means delaying the examination for months (Hiner). In the last six years we see from Figure 13 that the initial certificated flight instructor pass rates for the Designated Pilot Examiner has caught up to the higher average pass rates of the FAA Inspector. The conclusive result is that it depends whether the airmen is a pilot or instructor applicant when pursuing the initial ratings with a Designated Pilot Examiner versus FAA Inspector. Designated pilot examiners are more beneficial for certain levels of initial airmen applicants while FAA Inspectors are clearly more beneficial for initial instructor applicants.
  • 53. 4545 These results carry into measurements eight and nine which outline the additional rating pass rates for the private, commercial, airline transport pilot, and instructor applicants that are adding additional ratings to their current fixed wing ratings. When airmen are adding private or commercial ratings it is neither more beneficial to utilized a Designated Pilot Examiner not FAA Inspector; the difference in the average means is also negligible at less than 1.5%. It is realized that a Designated Pilot Examiner is much more beneficial (and statistically significant) for the adding the airline transport rating or another instructor ratings to their current airmen or instructor certificates if a first time pass is desired. Certificated flight instructors realize a measurable and clear benefit of having the practical test for an additional instructor rating with a Designated Pilot Examiner as they have a difference of 7.28% in the average mean with that of an FAA Inspector. This statistical finding is significant in that it is the opposite of what we found for an initial certificated flight instructor rating. For the initial rating it was more beneficial to utilize a FAA Inspector whereas an addition instructor rating calls to use a Designated Pilot Examiner if an airmen applicant desires to pass on the first attempt. What if you wanted to take all of your pilot check rides free of cost with the local FAA inspector? While this is understandable from a monetary savings standpoint, the higher pass rates that are more likely with a Designated Pilot Examiner are worth the premium in six of the measurements; especially for career pilots. Training records and check ride evaluations from day one, define on paper your ability to be a competent pilot, verify insurability, and prove your consistency and safety record as a licensed airman, as previously stated. (Hackworth, 2007; Hiner, n.d.; Knecht & Smith, 2012; DPE, 2012). The $1,200 to $1,600 premium may very well be worth the investment to protect a training record, as would utili1qwe3zing the FAA Inspector for the commercial fixed wing rating and initial flight instruction certification.
  • 54. 4646 What about comparing DPEs to inspectors for consistency in pass rates? Designated Pilot Examiners were found to have much higher consistencies in pass rates as compared to the FAA Inspectors. In many cases it seemed the higher consistency in pass rates for the Designated Pilot Examiners helped them edge out the higher average pass rates that the FAA Examiners once held at the beginning of the data set in 1999. Are airmen more likely to pass their check ride on the first attempt with a Designated Pilot Examiner (versus an inspector), so long as one is prepared and received quality training? There was no conclusive way to draw a result to answer this question as preparation and quality training are immeasurable in the data sets and are reasonable assumptions when an instructor endorses an airmen or another instructor applicant for a practical flight examination.
  • 55. 4747 Chapter VII Recommendations Recommended Application Recommendations of this study were derived from statistically significant findings in nine out of the fifteen measurements taken that it was indeed more beneficial to specifically utilize a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector for an airman practical test; both for initial and additional ratings. While individual outliers are a cause for concern, it would clearly be beneficial for progressing airmen to specifically utilize the examiner or inspector who would afford them the best statistical probability of passing their examination. Further Research Further research should be conducted on the overall, initial rating, and additional rating pass rates depending on whether a Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Inspector is utilized and why a consistent downward trend in all of the pass rate observations is being realized. The FAA should publish the pass rates by region of the country the test was conducted in: New England, Eastern, Southern, Great Lakes, Central, Southwest, Northwest-Mountain, Western-Pacific, and Alaskan regions should be basis for regional measurement as this is how the FAA delegates operation control authority throughout the United States. Further to the additional categories of measurement for pass rates of pilots and instructors, the FAA should also publish the pass rates based on which ratings are applied for initially versus as addition ratings. The pass rates could widely vary depending on if a pilot goes for a multi-engine private rating first versus the more traditional and common single-engine private pilot rating. The same observation could lead to varying rates between an instructor going for the MEI (multi-engine instructor) rating before the single-engine CFI-A (certificated
  • 56. 4848 flight instructor-airplane). While these scenarios are not as common, they could heavily influence the data results when analyzing if a compensated Designated Pilot Examiner or FAA Instructor should be utilized. Researcher’s Opinion The researcher is of the opinion that each individual airman’s circumstance in their current and future certification goals should shape their individually tailed training program with their dedicated instructor. The data that is available on pass rates spells out a clear statistical advantage for those airmen that decide to empower themselves with the most accurate information available to make the most informed decisions in their training process. It could mean the difference between a dream pilot or instructor job someday. It is also important to recognize these rates can drastically change with updated regulations and with updated observations in 2015 and 2016.
  • 57. 4949 References Bair, J. (2010, February 10). DPE. Retrieved September 27, 2015, from Sport Aviation Unlimited: http://www.sportaviationunlimited.com/DPE.htm Dillingham, G. L. (1996, April 30). Targeting and Training of FAA's Safety Inspector Workforce. Retrieved September 2015, from United States Government Publishing Office: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GAOREPORTS-T-RCED-96- 26/pdf/GAOREPORTS-T-RCED-96-26.pdf FAA Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) Program Under Watch (By FSANA and Others). (2014). Retrieved September 27, 2015, from Flight School Association of North America: http://www.fsana.com/news-faa-designated-pilot-examiner-dpe-program-under-watch- fsana-and-others Federal Aviation Administration. (2013, December 23). Aviation Safety Inspectors. Retrieved September 2015, from Federal Aviation Administration: https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ahr/jobs_careers/occupations/ av_safety_insp/ Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, June 2). Data & Research. Retrieved September 2015, from Federal Aviation Administration: http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/ Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, March 2). Flight Standards District Offices. Retrieved September 2015, from Federal Aviation Administration: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/field_offices/fsdo/
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