San Antonio Board of Realtors 2014 Housing Forecast presentation

1. The Local Market
2013 January – November Statistics

2. ANNUAL SALES TRENDS
(JANUARY – NOVEMBER)
25,000
20,000
Number
of Sales
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source:
MLS

3. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE
($0-$199,999 – JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
13,317
2011
13500
# of
Sales
2012
13000
11,993
12500
2013
12000
11,172
11500
11000
10500
10000
Source:
MLS

4. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE
($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
7,388
# of
Sales
2011
2012
8000
5,649
7000
2013
4,491
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Source:
MLS

5. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE
RANGE ($500,000 AND ABOVE
JANUARY thru NOVEMBER)
881
2011
2012
# of
Sales
900
800
621
2013
556
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source:
MLS

6. MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY YEAR
(Includes Single-Family & Condos/Townhomes)
10
9
8
2010
7
Months
of
Inventory
2011
6
2012
5
2013
4
3
Nov. 2013 –
Months of
Inventory:
4.2 months
2
1
0
Month
Source: Texas A&M Real
Estate Research Center

7. NUMBER OF MONTHLY ACTIVE
LISTINGS BY YEAR
14,000
12,000
# of
Active
Listings
10,000
8,000
2010
2011
2012
6,000
2013
Nov. 2013 –
Number of
Active
Listings is
8,036
4,000
2,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
April
May
June
Month
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Source:
MLS

8. Days on Market
(November)
98
98
100
83
90
75
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Nov '10
Nov '11
Nov '12
Nov '13
Source:
MLS

9. YTD MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER YEAR
(JAN - NOV)
$175,000
$170,000
$165,000
$160,000
$155,000
$150,000
$145,000
$140,000
$135,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source:
MLS

12. Top 5 Areas for Growth – Sales & Median
Prices by Year
(January – November)
Area
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Median
Price 2011
Median
Price 2012
Median
Price 2013
0200
878
925
1,124
$120,250
$122,000
$132,000
0300
738
866
1,092
$121,750
$123,000
$130,000
1700
863
837
980
$95,000
$105,000
$112,200
0400
705
855
941
$142,000
$143,200
$150,000
2705
839
830
995
$167,900
$175,366
$185,000

13. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Alamo
Heights
119
125
141
$191.08
$194.56
$205.59
Alamo
Ranch
206
277
320
$93.29
$91.22
$97.29
Anaqua
Springs
34
31
45
$126.36
$106.07
$158.68
Apple
Creek
36
26
29
$79.13
$79.33
$85.36
Bentley
Manor
14
11
15
$201.62
$197.33
$193.95
Burning
Tree
14
8
12
$83.06
$77.85
$81.08
Camino
Real
18
21
24
$105.80
$110.62
$107.33
Canyon
Springs
159
155
187
$102.99
$107.73
$110.53

14. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Carolina
Crossing
28
20
27
$71.85
$70.15
$79.39
Castle Hills
73
74
100
$85.66
$96.88
$95.99
Cedar
Springs
17
22
23
$77.55
$82.27
$85.27
Cibolo
Canyons
37
38
50
$99.70
$105.10
$109.55
Colonies
North
24
17
29
$77.92
$83.21
$83.63
Crownridge
16
27
35
$107.32
$104.81
$105.42
Deer Creek
25
29
45
$87.16
$89.63
$88.29
Deerfield
53
63
66
$114.32
$114.23
$112.62
Dellview
42
51
59
$67.93
$64.72
$67.63
Dover
53
53
63
$49.52
$49.79
$53.76

15. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Elm Creek
22
25
23
$115.20
$125.46
$126.13
Fair Oaks
100
134
161
$122.04
$120.50
$131.64
Garden
Ridge
22
29
15
$117.15
$119.62
$119.56
Government
Hill
9
9
13
$36.23
$46.88
$87.77
Harlandale
110
128
115
$44.10
$45.57
$49.64
Harmony
Hills
29
34
29
$79.62
$75.23
$82.00
Heritage
Park
73
82
106
$60.49
$59.72
$69.05
Highland
Hills
62
53
52
$49.22
$50.43
$53.35
Hollywood
Park
53
58
55
$105.11
$113.73
$113.79

16. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Hunters
Creek
36
44
51
$97.66
$104.27
$103.90
Inwood
55
66
58
$112.83
$113.15
$112.32
Lackland
Heights
14
8
11
$61.77
$50.18
$51.07
Legacy
Trails
9
19
20
$80.69
$75.88
$86.14
Longs
Creek
51
72
82
$63.27
$65.97
$70.76
Los
Angeles
Heights
61
68
67
$46.27
$45.55
$50.25
Mesa
Grande
17
20
19
$99.09
$98.23
$102.97
Monticello
Park
24
24
32
$84.16
$90.01
$90.82

17. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Northern
Hills
42
51
61
$67.04
$69.77
$73.62
Northwest
Crossing
123
110
145
$62.75
$63.77
$68.41
Oak Hills
7
16
18
$84.22
$89.80
$90.22
Oak
Meadows
2
2
2
$118.35
$91.29
$114.52
Oakmont
Downs
9
9
18
$82.64
$80.23
$75.48
Olmos
Park
37
38
46
$194.49
$190.51
$186.36
Olympia
34
46
59
$82.03
$83.62
$86.38
Redbird
Ranch
57
39
59
$79.71
$76.95
$83.51
Retama
Ridge
10
10
13
$68.50
$68.76
$73.91

18. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
River Rock
Ranch
44
40
65
$103.54
$106.13
$117.46
Rogers
Ranch
82
110
113
$108.49
$115.15
$116.89
San Pedro
Hills
38
37
51
$80.77
$83.55
$89.03
Santa Fe
10
9
16
$91.56
$86.11
$103.47
Shavano
Park
35
33
46
$154.38
$152.38
$158.72
Sonoma
Ranch
96
108
119
$92.11
$96.47
$98.83
Sonterra
60
78
106
$104.55
$104.34
$108.43
Spring
Creek
47
54
62
$82.50
$78.42
$87.44
Spring
Vista
67
64
98
$69.02
$71.94
$72.53

19. PRICE/SQ. FT. PER AREA
January - November
Subdivision
# Sales
2011
# Sales
2012
# Sales
2013
Price/Sq
Ft 2011
Price/Sq
Ft 2012
Price/Sq
Ft 2013
Steubing
Ranch
51
52
71
$79.29
$78.85
$83.64
Summerfield
20
27
18
$102.54
$102.25
$107.19
Terrell Hills
116
139
163
$145.32
$156.54
$169.14
Triana
17
32
33
$111.75
$111.30
$124.60
Two
Creeks
34
47
61
$94.09
$98.98
$99.25
Vineyards
2
1
0
$87.86
$94.59
$0.00
Windcrest
59
64
76
$65.32
$67.53
$72.90
Woodlake
119
109
112
$56.68
$58.87
$70.75
Woodlawn
Hills
5
6
3
$45.27
$67.65
$85.92
Woodstone
30
34
42
$60.77
$64.35
$65.80

20. Areas by Quadrant

21. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
600
2011
2012
500
# of
Sales
2013
400
300
200
100
0
Source:
MLS

22. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
600
2011
2012
500
# of
Sales
2013
400
300
200
100
0
Source:
MLS

23. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
4800
2011
2012
4600
2013
# of
Sales
4400
4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
Source:
MLS

24. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($50,000 - $199,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
6,000
2011
2012
5,000
# of
Sales
2013
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Source:
MLS

25. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
16
14
2011
2012
2013
12
# of
Sales
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source:
MLS

26. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
50
2011
45
40
# of
Sales
2012
2013
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source:
MLS

27. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
3,000
2011
2012
2,500
# of
Sales
2013
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source:
MLS

28. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($200,000 - $499,999 - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
3,000
2011
2012
2,500
2013
# of
Sales
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source:
MLS

29. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southwest Quadrant
1
2011
0.9
0.8
# of
Sales
2012
2013
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Source:
MLS

30. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Southeast Quadrant
1
2011
0.9
0.8
# of
Sales
2012
2013
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Source:
MLS

31. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northeast Quadrant
350
2011
2012
300
2013
250
# of
Sales
200
150
100
50
0
Source:
MLS

32. NUMBER OF SALES BY PRICE RANGE
($500,000 and Up - JANUARY - NOVEMBER)
Northwest Quadrant
300
2011
2012
250
# of
Sales
2013
200
150
100
50
0
Source:
MLS

34. Area by Finance Type (2012)
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
1001
11%
53%
18%
17%
1002
11%
62%
12%
16%
1003
31%
63%
2%
4%
1004
5%
58%
12%
25%
1005
11%
62%
10%
17%
1006
15%
60%
12%
13%
1100
41%
30%
19%
10%
1200
88%
5%
6%
1%
1300
29%
49%
14%
7%
1400
15%
33%
35%
17%
1500
26%
22%
37%
15%
1600
24%
20%
32%
25%

35. Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
1700
28%
19%
28%
24%
1801
13%
56%
17%
14%
1802
11%
44%
25%
19%
1803
12%
54%
17%
16%
1804
11%
41%
21%
26%
1900
44%
10%
36%
9%
2001
14%
14%
47%
25%
2002
17%
33%
39%
11%
2003
17%
28%
44%
11%
2004
27%
13%
53%
7%
2100
54%
9%
34%
3%
2200
62%
10%
24%
4%
2301
9%
17%
47%
28%

36. Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
2302
19%
44%
31%
6%
2303
50%
30%
20%
0%
2304
38%
17%
30%
16%
2400
28%
36%
17%
18%
2501
41%
59%
0%
0%
2502
15%
73%
5%
8%
2503
23%
54%
8%
15%
2504
29%
49%
18%
4%
2505
33%
60%
0%
7%
2506
23%
53%
9%
15%
2507
8%
75%
8%
8%
2508
21%
48%
24%
7%
2509
25%
50%
0%
25%

37. Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
2510
100%
0%
0%
0%
2600
20%
50%
16%
13%
2701
47%
12%
29%
12%
2702
44%
31%
25%
0%
2703
42%
25%
25%
8%
2704
14%
71%
7%
7%
2705
10%
27%
26%
36%
2706
10%
38%
33%
19%
2707
24%
34%
28%
14%
2708
20%
40%
20%
20%
2709
32%
47%
16%
5%
2800
12%
44%
26%
18%
2900
26%
33%
31%
10%

38. Area by Finance Type (2012) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
3000
25%
38%
17%
21%
3100
39%
38%
18%
5%
0101
5%
14%
25%
56%
0102
8%
31%
18%
42%
0103
12%
29%
30%
29%
0104
5%
29%
16%
50%
0105
6%
36%
25%
33%
0200
17%
22%
36%
25%
0300
17%
21%
45%
17%
0400
20%
32%
36%
12%
0500
19%
45%
24%
13%
0600
14%
55%
20%
11%
0700
54%
10%
32%
5%
0800
39%
19%
35%
8%
0900
38%
27%
30%
5%

40. Area by Finance Type (2013)
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
1001
10%
61%
14%
15%
1002
10%
68%
10%
12%
1003
18%
77%
0%
5%
1004
13%
62%
10%
15%
1005
14%
60%
12%
14%
1006
13%
63%
11%
13%
1100
36%
50%
11%
3%
1200
86%
4%
8%
2%
1300
26%
56%
10%
8%
1400
18%
36%
29%
17%
1500
27%
26%
35%
13%
1600
23%
23%
32%
22%

41. Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
1700
28%
17%
26%
28%
1801
13%
60%
12%
16%
1802
9%
47%
25%
19%
1803
12%
55%
14%
19%
1804
10%
48%
18%
23%
1900
41%
12%
39%
8%
2001
11%
20%
45%
24%
2002
14%
51%
19%
16%
2003
25%
25%
44%
6%
2004
26%
15%
44%
15%
2100
42%
11%
39%
8%
2200
61%
8%
29%
3%
2301
13%
17%
35%
35%

42. Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
2302
33%
13%
40%
13%
2303
50%
40%
10%
0%
2304
20%
21%
37%
22%
2400
31%
45%
13%
12%
2501
31%
59%
8%
3%
2502
22%
60%
2%
16%
2503
19%
52%
13%
16%
2504
31%
49%
16%
4%
2505
21%
58%
8%
13%
2506
10%
70%
5%
14%
2507
17%
67%
4%
13%
2508
28%
54%
10%
7%
2509
67%
0%
33%
0%

43. Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
2510
20%
80%
0%
0%
2600
19%
55%
12%
14%
2701
50%
20%
30%
0%
2702
52%
24%
20%
4%
2703
23%
33%
33%
10%
2704
27%
27%
22%
22%
2705
13%
31%
17%
39%
2706
22%
50%
22%
6%
2707
18%
43%
23%
17%
2708
19%
50%
23%
8%
2709
17%
50%
10%
23%
2800
13%
38%
23%
26%
2900
29%
32%
26%
12%

44. Area by Finance Type (2013) - Continued
MLS Area
Cash
Conventional
FHA
VA
3000
13%
39%
24%
24%
3100
36%
41%
17%
6%
0101
5%
14%
20%
60%
0102
12%
31%
17%
39%
0103
12%
34%
31%
23%
0104
10%
27%
15%
47%
0105
12%
38%
20%
29%
0200
18%
21%
36%
25%
0300
20%
27%
37%
16%
0400
18%
40%
30%
12%
0500
20%
49%
18%
13%
0600
17%
56%
16%
11%
0700
57%
13%
26%
4%
0800
38%
23%
35%
5%
0900
35%
36%
24%
6%

45. Eagle Ford Shale - Housing Growth

46. Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2800
Number of Sales (Jan-Nov)
350
2011
2012
300
2013
250
# of
Sales
200
150
100
50
0
Source:
MLS

47. Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2800
Median Price (Jan-Nov)
2011
$245,000
2012
$240,000
2013
$235,000
Price
$230,000
$225,000
$220,000
$215,000
$210,000
$205,000
$200,000
Source:
MLS

48. Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2900
Number of Sales (Jan-Nov)
164
2011
2012
162
# of
Sales
2013
160
158
156
154
152
Source:
MLS

49. Eagle Ford Shale Growth – Area 2900
Median Price (Jan-Nov)
2011
$180,000
2012
$160,000
2013
$140,000
Price
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Source:
MLS

50. The Local Market
2013 January – November Statistics