This presentation introduces the ECAMP spatial decision-making tool as developed by Claus Rabe from the City of Cape Town. The tool seeks to guide place-based policy using a systemic and relational evaluation of local economic potentiality.

1. Winner of the
2014 National
Planning Award
Towards an evidence-led approach to local intervention
Introducing the
Diagnostic Approach to Intra-Metropolitan Spatial Targeting

2. What is ECAMP?
• Ongoing tracking of over sixty
business precincts tracked across the
Cape, using over seventy indicators of
market performance and location
potential
• Enables evidence-led spatial targeting
and monitoring of local interventions
by local government
• Offers credible, comparative and fresh
market intelligence to inform
investment decisions

3. input
‘THE IDEA’
INTERVENTION
CITY DATA
INDICATORS
track
update
ECAMP
Diagnostic Model
output

4. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Meanrating(3=veryimportant)
Karakaya and Canel (1998)
Business location factors
Current ‘telescopic’ approach to
local intervention

5. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Meanrating(3=veryimportant)
Karakaya and Canel (1998)
Business location factors
Location as a package of
attributes

6. What do we measure?
MACRO TRENDS
• Economic growth
• Regional trade
• Building cost
• Interest rates
LOCATION
POTENTIAL
• Agglomeration
• Room for growth
• Urban management
• Accessibility
• Infrastructure
• Catchments
MARKET
PERFORMANCE
• Building activity
• Rentals
• Vacancy
• Sales churn
Indicator framework

7. Potential
LOW
HIGHLOW
GROWTH
Performance
HIGHOPPORTUNITY
TRANSITION CONSOLIDATION
Potential
Performance
Conceptual architecture:
4-quadrant model depicting
evolution of business node

11. Potential
LOW
HIGHLOW
Growth
ConsolidationTransition
Opportunity
Performance
HIGHClassification of business nodes
based on stage of evolution

13. Potential
Performance
HIGH
LOW
HIGHLOW
Growth
Consolidation
Transition
Opportunity
Regeneration
Stabilisation
Repositioning
GrowthMgmt.
Prioritisation framework for
place-based intervention

14. How has ECAMP been deployed to date?
Application
Lead agency/
depts.
Targeting of primary research initiatives, such as industrial and
business retention and expansion surveys.
Inter-departmental
Market feasibility analysis of City properties Inter-departmental
Targeting area-based interventions (e.g. financial and non-financial
incentives)
Inter-departmental
Local visioning and area planning Planning
Impact monitoring and evaluation of place-based interventions Planning
Modelling long-term location potential to inform infrastructure
planning
Inter-departmental

15. How has ECAMP been deployed to date?
Application
Lead agency /
depts.
Spatially targeting grant funding via Integration Zones
City
National Treasury
Locational assessment of flagship place-based projects, such as
the Tech Precinct
Mayor’s Office
Commercialisation strategies for public transport interchanges to
support financial sustainability of Integrated Rapid Transit.
Transport for Cape
Town
ECAMP as exemplary approach to promote evidence-led planning
in Western Cape and other metropolitan governments
PGWC,
National Treasury
Mitigating economic impact of electricity cuts by ‘red-lining’ priority
business nodes.
Electricity
department
Screening of all City capital projects against priority areas for bulk
network and business environment improvements respectively.
Office of the City
Manager

16. Business location intelligence (public portal)
• Offers credible, comparative
and fresh market
intelligence to inform
investment decisions

17. Unique data-driven view of our space economy now available via web-based portal http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp

18. Unique data-driven view of our space economy now available via web-based portal http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp
Download area profiles

19. Who is using the ECAMP Portal? (registered users)

20. Annual circular 2015

21. • Applying data science to simulate
spatial outcomes of alternative policy
decisions
• Medium-term growth management
• Long-term city structure plans
What’s next?Where to from here?

22. Geography
Economics
Data
Science
URBAN ECON.SPATIAL STATISTICS
NETWORKS
AGENT
BEHAVIOUR
SIMULATION

23. Inputs
Data-driven decision support
Database management
Organising, standardising
spatial data into platform
Diagnostic tool
Collating diverse data into
single heuristic model
Area-based instruments
Design/selection of
interventions
Financial instruments
Institutional structures
Infrastructure
Urban management
Regulatory instruments
Administrative data
Third party data
Firm-level data
Household data
Open source data
Modelling outputs
ECAMP PHASE 1
2013-2014
ECAMP PHASE 0
2011-2012
Location theory
Exploratory analysis
Linear modelling

24. Inputs
Database management
Organising, standardising
spatial data into platform
Diagnostic tool
Collating diverse data into
single heuristic model
Area-based instruments
Design, selection and spatial
targeting of interventions
Decision support tool
Simulating policy outcomes
Location theory
Exploratory analysis
Linear modelling
Cellular automata
Agent-based
Probabilistic models
Network analysis
Scenario-building
Serious gaming Financial instruments
Institutional structures
Infrastructure
Urban management
Regulatory instruments
Administrative data
Third party data
Firm-level data
Household data
Open source data
Modelling outputs
ECAMP PHASE 2
2014-
ECAMP PHASE 1
2013-2014
ECAMP PHASE 0
2011-2012
Data-driven decision support

25. Testing commercial vehicle movements as a proxy for economic interaction between business nodes.
Identifying clusters
Network analysis to gain insight
into ‘deep structure’ shaping
spatial investment behaviour

26. Testing commercial vehicle movements as a proxy for economic interaction between business nodes.
Network analysis to gain insight
into ‘deep structure’ shaping
spatial investment behaviour

27. Medium-term infrastructure
prioritisation as part of growth
management planning

28. Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units)
Medium-term infrastructure
prioritisation as part of growth
management planning
Overlaying infrastructure risk on 2032 land use scenario to prioritise intervention

29. • To enhance our
understanding of spatial
investment behaviour of
diverse urban development
actors
• To test impact of locational
attributes, policies and
exogenous events on
behaviours.
Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units)
Gaming the space economy to
understand interactive investment
decision-making

30. Spatial development
framework
Remove detail of peripheral
(possible) future infrastructure,
emphasise infrastructure
supporting inward growth
Prioritise existing well-located
employment nodes over
‘aspirational’ nodes
High-level nodal strategy based on
local assets, ownership/sector
dynamics and constraints
Create policy certainty by showing
priority investment areas and
incentives
Show infrastructure cost surface to
support inward growth message
Pragmatic TOD (Dwelling units)
Long term regional structure
planning

32. Thank You
Claus Rabe Claus.rabe@capetown.gov.za
ECAMP Portal: http://web1/capetown.gov.za/web1/ecamp