1. Predicting the Future of Economic Growth:
A Lesson from Cancer Biology
Chi-Ping Day, Ph.D.
Laboratory of Cancer Biology and Genetics
National Cancer Institute, NIH
chi-ping.day@nih.gov

2. Las Vegas
Why Urban Sprawl….

3. Urban development
Tumor formation
Founding
business center
Initiating cells
in niche
Worsening
environment of
the city
Cellular crowding
and hypoxia
Necrotic core and
angiogenesis to
promote growth of
peripheral region
Deteriorating inner city
and highway system to
promote suburban
development
Worsening environment of
suburban and new highways
to promote urban sprawl
Expansion of necrotic core
and further angiogenesis to
promote tumor invasion and
spreading
… Looks So Familiar for Cancer Biologists?

4. Howard Odum’s Maximum Power Principle
“When a lion is chasing, all you have to do is to
run faster than your friends.”

5. Resource
(R)
Capital/Structure
(C)
Power
k1 k2 k3
’R = -k1CR ’C = k2CR-K3C
Simple Model of Organization Growth Driven by
Non-renewable Resource (Lotka-Volterra Style)
Structural
maintenanceResource
extraction

6. Organization Becomes More Complex as
Resource Depleting
Early Stage Later Stage
Size Range

7. 1
3 4
52
R’ = −k1CR
C’= k2CR – k3C
R’ C
Time
StockofRorSizeofC
R
Size of economy (C)
RateofProduction(R’)
1
3
4
5
2
Why Economy Has to Grow: Lock-in Effect
Resource
depletion
Harder to
extract
Organization
growth
Increasing
extraction
capacity
Resource
Crisis Spiral

8. Lock-in Effect: Demographic Transition
Demographic
Resource
Social structure & life
style
Power
Structural
maintenance
Extraction &
regeneration
Paul Chefurka, http://www.paulchefurka.ca/DTMandEnergy.html

9. 390 BC 200 BC
200 AD
30 BC
500 AD410 AD
Mediterranean agriculture Sicilian grain and Spanish silver North African grain and Dacian gold
Egyptian and North African grains
(“Pax Romana”)
Loss of North Africa Collapse of empire system
Example of Roman Empire

10. Infrastructure of Roman Empire:
Water Ways and Land Roads

11. Out of Resource Crisis Spiral:
Lesson from Tumor
Glucose
O2
Glucose Glutamine
Fatty acids,
ketone bodies
Mobilization of
distant resources
Anaerobic
glycolysis
Anaerobic
glutaminolysis
Mitochondria
revival
Autonomic neural and
endocrine controls of
metabolism
Oncogene
Cell cycle
and anti-
apoptosis
Glucose and
lactate
transporters
Angiogenesis and
ECM degradation
Local adipose
tissue
Metastasis
ResourceTechnologyInfrastructure

12. Lesson from Tumor:
Wave of Resource Switch
Cancer Cachexia
Wound repair Oxidative stress Systemic inflammation

13. https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/maps/growth_distribution_of_cities_1790-2000.html
Coal Coal and oil Imported oil
wood and coalWoodWood
Energy Transition and Urbanization in U.S.

14. Energy and Infrastructures in U.S.
Coal mines
Canal system
Woods
Oil fields
Pipe system

15. USPrimaryEnergyConsumption
(QuadrillionBTU)
USUrbanPopulationRatio
(Percentageoftotalpopulation)
U.S. Urban Population Growth Is Driven by Energy
Age of domestic oil Age of imported oil
Beginning of imported oil era
(“Pax Americana”)

16. Urbanpopulationratio(%) Deceleration of Urbanization Indicates the
Current Status as “Phase 3”

17. Energy Consumption Fluctuation Signals Transition-
If We Know What the New Energy Is!
Time
Energyuse
Total energy
consumption
Energy 1
Energy 2
Improving
efficiency
Reducing
demand
Decreasing
price
Energy Use
Vibration
Increasing
consumption

18. Trends in Phase 3:
Virtual Urbanization Driven by Time and Information
City
“Virtual” metropolitan
Suburban
Broad band
Wireless
connection
Servers Shipping system

19. Actually, It’s Oil Substitution with Time, Information, and
Computing Power (TIC)
Energy-consuming TIC-enriched
Mall shopping Cyber shopping
Commuting Work at home
Big meeting Webinar
Land line telephone system Cell phone system
Highway transportation Drone shipment
Mass production 3D printing
Coordination by
centralization
Coordination by
computing

20. Fossil Fuel vs. Solar/Wind Energy
Fossil Fuel Solar/Wind
Production rate High Low
Storage cost Low High
Transportation cost Low High
Power generated High Low
Energy supply mode Continuous Intermittent
Converting to
materials
Yes No
Impact on
environment
High ?

21. The Path to Get Around Collapse:
Adaptation to Life Style Supported by Low-Power Renewable Energy
Local power
station (solar,
wind, etc.)
Computing power &
Infrastructure for scaling up
coordination
Manufacturing
based on recycled
materials
Limited
transportation
Energy-efficient
agriculture
Local community

22. How Driverless Cars Can Become Solar-Powered
Driverless cars
Radar
Inter-vehicle communication
Car-signal communication
Safe and light-weight
Low-power engine
Automatically return to a charging station
Solar energy driven

23. Why Does Society Support Scientific Research?
1
3 4
52
R’ = −k1CR
C’= k2CR – k3C
R’ C
Time
StockofRorSizeofC
R
Phase Type of
research
Goal from collective
“mentality”
Example
1 Substitution How to utilize new resource to
replace old one
Modern physics and organic chemistry in
1920-40s.
2 Expansion How to utilize the abundant
resource to drive everything
Electronics and molecular biology in 1940-
1980s.
3 Efficiency How to improve efficiency of
the current procedures
Computer science and material science in
1980-1990s.
4 Exploration Searching for the replacement
for current energy
Earth science, data science, informatics, and
communication since 2000.

24. The New Energy for Cities:
Not Oil for the Future, Not Renewable Energy Soon, Then What?
High population density
Relative short travel distance
Information transmission
Adaptability to new technology
Efficient education system
Current Features of
Metropolitans
Life Style of Renewable/
Low-Power Society
Self-sufficient home energy
Information system for
working in home
Limited travel distance
Local and focused agriculture
Recycle-based home
manufacturing technology
Remote medical care system
Community support
Transition to
Renewable energy
Solar and wind power
Manufacture based on
recycled material
Local power station
System integration by
computing power
THE FUTURE IS NOW