FSAU presentation

FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary Findings
FSAU/FAOFSAU/FAO
Gu 2003 Food Security AnalysisGu 2003 Food Security Analysis
&&
Projection through to Gu 2004Projection through to Gu 2004

Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives
GOALGOAL
 To provide a preliminary analysis ofTo provide a preliminary analysis of
the food security situation in Somaliathe food security situation in Somalia
following thefollowing the GuGu 2003 season, with2003 season, with
an outlook through toan outlook through to GuGu 20042004

Meeting Goals & ObjectivesMeeting Goals & Objectives
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
 To provide crop production figures and analysisTo provide crop production figures and analysis
across Somalia foracross Somalia for GuGu 2003.2003.
 To provide a national overview of pastoralTo provide a national overview of pastoral
conditions following theconditions following the GuGu 2003 season.2003 season.
 To provide an analysis of other factorsTo provide an analysis of other factors
influencing food security in areas of concern ininfluencing food security in areas of concern in
Somalia following theSomalia following the GuGu 2003 season2003 season
 To present an outlook for food security inTo present an outlook for food security in
Somalia through to theSomalia through to the GuGu season 2004season 2004

Meeting OutlineMeeting Outline
Time Topic
1000-1030 Introduction
1030-1120 Sectoral reports
1120-1205 Integrated analysis by area
1205-1300 Summary, Next steps, questions

FSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary FindingsFSAU 2003 Gu Analysis - Preliminary Findings
FSAUFSAU
AnalyticalAnalytical
processprocess
(1)(1)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
JunJul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

FSAU Analytical Process (II)FSAU Analytical Process (II)
Early
Warning
Information
Baseline livelihood
analysis provides the
context against which
indicators are
monitored – it indicates
what is “normal”
Monitoring information
(rainfall data, remote
sensing imagery, crop
and livestock
production, market
prices) flags situations
when access to
resources become
critical
FSAU’s risk analysis
explains how different
shocks or risks affect
different households:
how each is affected, why,
when and for how long
Baseline
vulnerability
analysis
Risk/
Outcome
Analysis
Seasonal
Food Security
Assessments

Gu 2003 RainfallGu 2003 Rainfall
performanceperformance

 Satellite imagery is important for earlySatellite imagery is important for early
warning analysiswarning analysis
 It is the only data that is received withIt is the only data that is received with
sufficient regularity(every ten days)sufficient regularity(every ten days)
and covers the entire countryand covers the entire country
 data are proxies to the condition theydata are proxies to the condition they
measure andmeasure and Should beShould be interpretedinterpreted
with cautionwith caution
 Triangulation with field data necessaryTriangulation with field data necessary
Uses & Limitations ofUses & Limitations of
Satellite ImagerySatellite Imagery

Shabelle & Juba Maize Growing areas

Hiran, Middle & Lower Shabelle

Bay, Bakool, Parts of Gedo & Middle Juba

Hargeisa, Gebiley and Borama

Climate
Outlook
Forum:
Deyr
Forecast

Gu 2003 CropGu 2003 Crop
performanceperformance

Gu 2003 Cereal ProductionGu 2003 Cereal Production
(S.Somalia) and Somaliland(S.Somalia) and Somaliland
Compared to Gu Post-WarCompared to Gu Post-War
Average (PWA) (1995- 2002)andAverage (PWA) (1995- 2002)and
20022002

20022002 20032003
PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02)
% of% of
20022002
% o% off
PWAPWA
BakoolBakool 1,1551,155 279279 2,8972,897 2424%% 1010%%
BayBay 56,26056,260 24,55024,550 42,36942,369 4444%% 5858%%
GedoGedo 2,6632,663 1,6651,665 4,2454,245 6363%% 3939%%
HiranHiran 210210 390390 3,0583,058 1414%% 1313%%
L/JubaL/Juba 8686 118118 152152 663%3% 7878%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 8,7008,700 5,2805,280 7,4857,485 6161%% 7171%%
M/JubaM/Juba 2,4082,408 2,9332,933 3,1173,117 7878%% 9494%%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 8,4298,429 2,5862,586 4,9634,963 3131%% 5252%%
sub-totalsub-total 79,91179,911 37,80137,801 68,28568,285 4747%% 5555%%
SomalilandSomaliland 9,8029,802 11,64311,643 12,01512,015 8181%% 9797%%
G.TotalG.Total 89,71389,713 49,44449,444 80,30180,301 555%5% 6262%%
Sorghum production 1995-2002 and Average 1995-2002 (MT)

20022002 20032003
PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02)
% of% of
20022002
% of% of
PWAPWA
BakoolBakool 4545 5656 269269 7474%% 2121%%
BayBay 6,9206,920 4,5004,500 2,7542,754 6565%% 3737%%
GedoGedo 1,3831,383 3,0003,000 3,6903,690 17%17% 8181%%
HiranHiran 460460 500500 2,2502,250 9911%% 2222%%
L/JubaL/Juba 6,6606,660 6,4826,482 7,6247,624 9797%% 8585%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 92,02092,020 88,03888,038 61,88661,886 9696%% 5858%%
M/JubaM/Juba 9,1809,180 2,4302,430 9,1219,121 2626%% 227%7%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 12,35012,350 13,50013,500 11,99211,992 9911%% 8787%%
sub-totalsub-total 129,018129,018 118,506118,506 99,58699,586 9292%% 881%1%
SomalilandSomaliland 1,0801,080 1,4401,440 3,4053,405 6767%% 4242%%
G.TotalG.Total 130,098130,098 119,946119,946 102,991102,991 9292%% 8484%%
Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002)Maize Production 1995-2002 and (Average 1995-2002)
(MT)(MT)

20022002 20032003
PWAPWA
(95-02)(95-02)
% of% of
20022002
% of% of
PWAPWA
BakoolBakool 1,2001,200 335335 3,1663,166 2828%% 1111%%
BayBay 63,18063,180 29,05029,050 45,12345,123 4646%% 6464%%
GedoGedo 4,0464,046 4,6654,665 7,9357,935 885%5% 5959%%
HiranHiran 670670 890890 5,3085,308 6767%% 1717%%
L/JubaL/Juba 6,7466,746 6,6006,600 7,7767,776 9898%% 8585%%
L/ShabelleL/Shabelle 100,720100,720 93,31893,318 69,37169,371 9393%% 665%5%
M/JubaM/Juba 11,58811,588 5,3635,363 12,23812,238 4646%% 4444%%
M/ShabelleM/Shabelle 20,77920,779 16,08616,086 16,95516,955 7373%% 995%5%
sub-totalsub-total 208,929208,929 156,307156,307 167,871167,871 775%5% 9393%%
SomalilandSomaliland 10,88210,882 13,08313,083 15,42015,420 880%0% 885%5%
G.TotalG.Total 219,811219,811 169,390169,390 183,292183,292 7777%% 9292%%
Cereal production 1995-2003 and Average (1995-2002)

Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-Cereal Production 1995-2003 and (Avg. 1995-
2002)2002)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
MT
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Avg(95-01)
Years
Sorghum
Maize

Main Factors Contributing to LossesMain Factors Contributing to Losses
after Establishmentafter Establishment
 Poor RainsPoor Rains
 Bird damage for SorghumBird damage for Sorghum
 Insect and Diseases (Sorghum andInsect and Diseases (Sorghum and
Maize)Maize)
 Low river level (impossible gravityLow river level (impossible gravity
irrigation )irrigation )
 FloodsFloods
 Conflict and insecurityConflict and insecurity

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Bakool
Bay
G
edo
Hiran
L/Juba
L/Shabelle
M
/Juba
M
/Shabelle
Som
aliland
Average
Sorghum
Maize
Regional Contribution Compared to Average

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Pwa(95-
02)
Sorghum
Maize
Cereal Production 1995-2003 Compared to Average
(1995-2002)

Gu 2003Gu 2003
Livestock ConditionsLivestock Conditions

0 K m 6 7 3 K m
PASTORAL
AREAS OF
CONCERN
Map Legend
Region2
District2
SITUATION 1 - EMERGENCY
SITUATION 2 - ALEERT
SITUATION 3 - CLOSE MONITORING
Documents
Most affected
Affected
Close monitoring

 Most AffectedMost Affected
– Sool PlatSool Plateaeau of Sool and Sanaag regionsu of Sool and Sanaag regions
 Dhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, andDhahar, Badhan, Hudun, Fiqiga, and somesome parts of Cerigavo districtparts of Cerigavo district
– Lower Nugal ValleyLower Nugal Valley
 (Taleh district and parts of Garowe)(Taleh district and parts of Garowe)
PASTORAL CONDITIONSPASTORAL CONDITIONS
 NormalNormal
– Most of Southern SomaliaMost of Southern Somalia
– Some Northern AreasSome Northern Areas
 AffectedAffected
– Sool Plateau, Bari regionSool Plateau, Bari region
(Gardo, B/Beyla districts)(Gardo, B/Beyla districts)
– UpperUpper NugalNugal (Dangorayo)(Dangorayo)
– Hawd of Sool (Saraar of AinaboHawd of Sool (Saraar of Ainabo
district)district)
– AddunAddun in Central Regionin Central Region
 Close MonitoringClose Monitoring
– Central Region :Central Region : Abudwak,Abudwak,
Elbur and Hobyo districtsElbur and Hobyo districts (poor(poor
rain and conflict)rain and conflict)
– Nugal Region :Nugal Region : BurtinleBurtinle (in-(in-
migration from Hawd ofmigration from Hawd of
Ethiopia and Addun)Ethiopia and Addun)
– Bari Region: UpperBari Region: Upper DharoorDharoor
ddistricts of Iskushubanistricts of Iskushuban andand
BossasoBossaso (in migration from(in migration from
Sool of Sanaag and NugalSool of Sanaag and Nugal
Region)Region)

Pastoral ConstraintsPastoral Constraints
Poor rainsPoor rains
InsecurityInsecurity
Non-existent or poor rangeland managementNon-existent or poor rangeland management
Increased human settlement around berkads &Increased human settlement around berkads &
increasing desertification of surrounding areasincreasing desertification of surrounding areas
Increase in private enclosures - reducing accessIncrease in private enclosures - reducing access
to grazing and limiting normalto grazing and limiting normal migrationmigration
IIncreased likelihood ofncreased likelihood of migrationmigration from rural tofrom rural to
urban areas as a result of pastoralisturban areas as a result of pastoralist
vulnerability.vulnerability.

OVERVIEW OFOVERVIEW OF
NUTRITIONNUTRITION
SITUATIONSITUATION

Information sourcesInformation sources
 Surveys (standard two-stage clusterSurveys (standard two-stage cluster
sampling)sampling)
 MUAC assessmentsMUAC assessments
 Trend data analysis from HealthTrend data analysis from Health
centrescentres
 Qualitative assessmentsQualitative assessments

Broad observationsBroad observations
 S/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% evenS/land & P/land: GAM 7 – 11% even
in “food secure seasons”in “food secure seasons”
 South & Central: 10 – 15% even inSouth & Central: 10 – 15% even in
food secure seasons”food secure seasons”
 Variations in these rates in all areasVariations in these rates in all areas

Areas of nutrition concern: NW&NEAreas of nutrition concern: NW&NE
Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)Somalia (Somaliland & Puntland)
Sool plateau:Sool plateau:
 GAM >12% in May,03, why not dramaticallyGAM >12% in May,03, why not dramatically
– Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)Survival on adverse coping strategies (massive charcoal burning)
– Social network supportSocial network support
 Worsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% inWorsening rates from nearby facilities: <10% in
April to >18% in AugustApril to >18% in August
 Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex:Aug 03 assessment in parts of Huddun & Talex:
GAM>20GAM>20
 Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles)Rising incidences of diseases (ARI, measles)
 Coping mechanisms being exhaustedCoping mechanisms being exhausted
 Social support weakeningSocial support weakening

Areas of nutrition concern:Areas of nutrition concern:
South & Central ZoneSouth & Central Zone
 High in esp.High in esp. BeletweynBeletweyn, GAM 17%, July03), GAM 17%, July03)
 GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti &GAM also high in other areas (Bulo Burti &
Jalalaqsi)Jalalaqsi)
– Contaminated water,Contaminated water,
– poor sanitation,poor sanitation,
– Food inaccessibility among poor HHsFood inaccessibility among poor HHs

JUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts ofJUBA Valley: Jilib, Bualle & parts of
Haggar (mainly riverine villagesHaggar (mainly riverine villages
 High GAM >20%, oedema:High GAM >20%, oedema:
– Low food diversity esp. acute shortage ofLow food diversity esp. acute shortage of
protein among riverine populations &protein among riverine populations &
– High disease incidencesHigh disease incidences
– Limited social network supportLimited social network support
 Insecurity inhibits assessment missionsInsecurity inhibits assessment missions
 Rising GAM levels in Badhadhe townRising GAM levels in Badhadhe town
attributed to decline in intake of milkattributed to decline in intake of milk

BAKOL & BAY:BAKOL & BAY:
 Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) &Chronic; high GAM 13 - 20% (surveys) &
MUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, RabdurreMUAC (Aug03)- parts of Huddur, Rabdurre
– Nutrition related interventions thus rates fromNutrition related interventions thus rates from
>20%>20%
– Chronic high GAM due to successive deprivedChronic high GAM due to successive deprived
food intake-low productivityfood intake-low productivity
 Limited accessibility in Bay esp. in BaidoaLimited accessibility in Bay esp. in Baidoa
though HF trend analysis shows chronicallythough HF trend analysis shows chronically
high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. Dinsor,high GAM 16 – 24 % esp. Dinsor,
Burakhaba & BaidoaBurakhaba & Baidoa

N. GEDO: ConcernN. GEDO: Concern
 High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B.High GAM 15 - 22% in N. Gedo (esp. B.
Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)Hawo, Dolow, &Luuq)
 Declined from high of >30% in 2001 toDeclined from high of >30% in 2001 to
current levels.current levels.
– Interventions and initially improving foodInterventions and initially improving food
securitysecurity
 High levels caused by low nutrient intakeHigh levels caused by low nutrient intake
due to successive droughts and insecuritydue to successive droughts and insecurity
 Reports of declining food intake -Reports of declining food intake -
Malnutrition may increaseMalnutrition may increase

IDPs, Returnees & Urban poorIDPs, Returnees & Urban poor
 In Bossasso, Hargeisa, MogadishuIn Bossasso, Hargeisa, Mogadishu
Kismayu & BuraoKismayu & Burao
– Rates chronically high 12 – 19%Rates chronically high 12 – 19%
– Unsanitary environmentUnsanitary environment
– Poor childcare practices (eg. Use ofPoor childcare practices (eg. Use of
bottle feeds)bottle feeds)
– DiseasesDiseases
– Low food intake related low accessibilityLow food intake related low accessibility

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%[
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
EYL
LUUQ
BAKI
YEED
JILIB
Xagar
SAKOW
BRAWE
HOBYO
XUDUN
WAJID
DOLOW
CADALE
BALCAD
Galcad
DINSOR
QARDHO
TALEEX
SHEIKH
ZEYLAC
Cadaado
AFGOOYE
AFMADOW
JAMAAME
GOLWEYN
JARIBAN
CAYNABO
GEBILEY
CALUULA
XAAFUUN
BARGAAL
KANDALA
BERBERA
LUGHAYE
BERDALE
TAYEGLOW
BADHADHE
QORYOLEY
SOBLAALE
BURTINLE
GOLDOGOB
CEELWAQ
CEELBUUR
JALALAQSI
WANLEWEYN
BURHAKABA
LASQORAY
BUUHOODLE
WARSHEIKH
CABUDWAAQ
BALANBALE
CEELDHEER
ADANYABAL
BULO-BURTO
CeelBarde
Dan Gorayo
ISKUSHUBAN
BELETXAWO
Rab Dhuure
GalHareeri
XARARDHEERE
BAAR-DHEERE
CEELAFWEYN
KURTUNWAAREY
BANDERBEYLA
MAHADAYWEYNE
QANSAXDHEERE
BANDARWANAAG
BALLIGUBADLE
(BallehKhadar)
XUDUR
MERKA
BURCO
JOWHAR
BOROMA
BUAALE
KISMAYO
GAROOWE
BOSSASO
BAYDHABA
GALKACYO
HARGEYSA
GARBAHAREY
CEERIGAABO
BELET-WEYNE
LAS CAANOOD
DHUSA-MAREEB
MOGADISHU
06/02
05/02
09/02
06/00
03/02
07/03
12/02
08/01
12/00
05/03
09/01
11/01
01/01
07/00
10/02
06/03
10/01
02/00
04/01
12/02
06/01
10/01
07/03
08/99
12/99
02/00
04/00
06/00
09/99
08/99
08/03
Global (Total) Acute Malnutrition
0% - 4.9%
5% - 9.9%
10% - 14.9%
15% - 19.9%
> 20%
River
Major road
#
District town
#Y Regional capital
%[ Capital
Regional boundary
District boundary
Property of FSAU-FAO.
P.O. Box 1230 Vilage Market (Nairobi),
Tel 3745734/8297/1299 or 3750262/3,
Fax: 3740598
E-mail: fsauinfo@fsau.or.ke.
Nutrition componet of FSAU is funded by USAID
Project partners are UNICEF, WHO, SRCS/ICRC, SRCS/IFRC, WVI,
GHC,IMC, MSF-S, COSV, AAH, Muslim Aid-UK, INTERSOS, CISP,
MOHL, IRC, MOSA, ACF-F, AAH, COOPI, Zam Zam Foun,
Waberi Comm., H/W
Nutrition
information
throughout
Somalia

Market PricesMarket Prices
Trends since 1998Trends since 1998
(US$)(US$)

0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
PriceinUSDollarfor1kg
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)
Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Shabelle Valley (Maize)
Selected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg CerealSelected Aggregate Prices for 1 kg Cereal

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Grain(kg)Purchasedwith1Day'sLabour
0
5
10
15
20
25Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum - RIGHT HAND AXIS)
Selected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with OneSelected Aggregate Terms of Trade: The Amount of Cereal Bought with One
Day’s Unskilled LabourDay’s Unskilled Labour

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Grain(kg)Purchasedwith1Goat
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum)
Somaliland, Puntland and Central Regions (Rice)
Juba Valley (Maize)
Terms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality GoatTerms of Trade: The Amount of Grain Bought with One Local Quality Goat

Important Factors to ConsiderImportant Factors to Consider
 Good terms of trade: Does notGood terms of trade: Does not
necessarily translate into purchasingnecessarily translate into purchasing
powerpower
 Price data collected in market towns,Price data collected in market towns,
not rural areas where agric labour isnot rural areas where agric labour is
sought by the rural poorsought by the rural poor

Food Security Projections:Food Security Projections:
Important factors to considerImportant factors to consider
 Deyr RainfallDeyr Rainfall
 Insecurity & political factorsInsecurity & political factors
 Djibouti expulsion of migrant workersDjibouti expulsion of migrant workers
 Meat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi ArabiaMeat exports from Ethiopia to Saudi Arabia
 Remittances and economic investment fromRemittances and economic investment from
abroadabroad
 Exchange ratesExchange rates
 Border closuresBorder closures
 Others …?Others …?

FSAU AnalysisFSAU Analysis
 Example from Juba ValleyExample from Juba Valley
 Southern Agro-pastoral foodSouthern Agro-pastoral food
economy zoneeconomy zone
 Deyr 50% scenarioDeyr 50% scenario

Background: Analysis processBackground: Analysis process
 Compile district crop production dataCompile district crop production data
 Disaggregate by FEZDisaggregate by FEZ
 Categorize into groups according to GuCategorize into groups according to Gu
crop performancecrop performance
 Analyse household economy for “poor”, inAnalyse household economy for “poor”, in
areas of concern, considering:areas of concern, considering:
– Change in productive activities – includingChange in productive activities – including
coping strategiescoping strategies
– Change in prices of key commoditiesChange in prices of key commodities
bought/soldbought/sold
– Other factors affecting food securityOther factors affecting food security
 Determine deficit (if any)Determine deficit (if any)

Example: Gedo AgropastoralExample: Gedo Agropastoral
(Scenario 50%(Scenario 50% DeyrDeyr))
Baselinenon-staple
purchase
staple
purchase
Gifts
Milk and
Meat
Sorghum
and
C/pea
Initial Deficit
deficit
Sorghum
and
C/pea
Gifts
non-staple
purchase
staple
purchase
Milk and
Meat
Food SourcesFood Sources
Response
deficit
non-staple
purchase
staple
purchase
Gifts
Milk and
Meat
Sorghum
and
C/pea

Income sourcesIncome sources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Baseline Initial Deficit Response
%baselineincome
Sorghum Milk sales Bush products
Water sales livestock sales ag labour

ExpenditureExpenditure
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Baseline Initial Deficit Response
%baselineexpenditure
min.non-staple staple flexibilty

Juba ValleyJuba Valley
GedoGedo
Middle JubaMiddle Juba
Lower JubaLower Juba
JUBA VALLEY
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
PASTORALISTS
AGRO-PASTORALISTS
RIVERINE

Cereal ProductionCereal Production
* PWA = Post War Average
Region
Main Cereal Production
Major factors affecting
production
Gu 2003
prodn
(MT)
Gu 2002
prodn
(MT)
Gu 2003 Gu 2003
as % of
2002
as % of
PWA*
GEDO 4665 4046 115 % 58 %
1.Delayed & poor Gu rainfall
2. Prolonged dry spell
3. Higher evapotranspiration
(extreme wind blows)
4. Severe bird attack
MIDDLE
JUBBA
5363
11588
46 % 44 %
1. Delayed, below normal rainfall
3. Severe rodent attacks
4. Insecurity (Buale)
LOWER
JUBBA
6600 6746 98 % 85 %
1. Delayed, below normal rainfall
3. Insect infestation
4. No hagar rains

General Livestock ConditionsGeneral Livestock Conditions
ComparedCompared
w/ Last Yearw/ Last Year
Compared w/Compared w/
“Normal” Year“Normal” Year
Remarks (list notableRemarks (list notable
exceptions)exceptions)
PasturePasture NormalNormal NormalNormal
WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal Disease reportedDisease reported
in Badhadhein Badhadhe
MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal
OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal

Integrated Food Security Outlook:Integrated Food Security Outlook:
Overall Major Influencing FactorsOverall Major Influencing Factors
Positive FactorsPositive Factors
 Good livestockGood livestock
productionproduction
 Normal production inNormal production in
irrigated areasirrigated areas
 Fair Livestock marketsFair Livestock markets
 Normal cross-borderNormal cross-border
tradetrade
 Security improvedSecurity improved
Negative FactorsNegative Factors
Delayed, poor andDelayed, poor and
localizedlocalized GuGu rainfallrainfall
 Prolonged dry spellProlonged dry spell
 Severe bird/rodentSevere bird/rodent
attackattack
 Increased fuel PricesIncreased fuel Prices
 localized insecuritylocalized insecurity
 Higher non-stapleHigher non-staple
pricesprices

Projected DeficitsProjected Deficits
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern (“poor” households)(“poor” households)
FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts deficitdeficit
(scenario:(scenario:
deyrdeyr 100%)100%)
deficitdeficit
scenario:scenario:
(deyr(deyr 50%)50%)
SouthernSouthern
AgropastoralAgropastoral
Luq andLuq and
DolowDolow
00 30 %30 %
Southern JubaSouthern Juba
RiverineRiverine
dheshekdheshek
Sakow andSakow and
BualeBuale
00 15 %15 %
Lower Juba APLower Juba AP HagarHagar 00 10 %10 %

SHABELLE & COWPEA BELT
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
PASTORALISTS
AGRO-PASTORALISTS
RIVERINE
URBAN

RegionRegion
Major factorsMajor factors
affectingaffecting
Gu 2003Gu 2003
productioproductio
n (MT)n (MT)
Gu 2002Gu 2002
(MT)(MT)
GuGu
20032003 Gu 2003Gu 2003
as %as %
ofof
20022002
as % ofas % of
PWA*PWA*
LowerLower
ShabelleShabelle
93,59893,598 100,720100,720 93%93% 135%135%
Long Dry spellLong Dry spell
Pest infestationPest infestation
PrematurePremature
harvestharvest
MiddleMiddle
ShabelleShabelle
15,90015,900 20,77920,779 77%77% 123%123%
Long Dry spellLong Dry spell
Pest infestationPest infestation
PrematurePremature
harvestharvest
Cowpea BeltCowpea Belt 476476 4646

ComparedCompared
w/ Last Yearw/ Last Year
Compared w/Compared w/
“Normal” Year“Normal” Year
Remarks (list notableRemarks (list notable
exceptions)exceptions)
PasturePasture PoorPoor PoorPoor Abnormal out-migrationAbnormal out-migration
Overgrazing at host areaOvergrazing at host area
WaterWater NormalNormal NormalNormal Water catchments dried upWater catchments dried up
earlierearlier
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal NormalNormal No exceptional eventsNo exceptional events
MarketMarket NormalNormal NormalNormal NormalNormal
OverallOverall Below normalBelow normal Below NormalBelow Normal Decreased body weight andDecreased body weight and

Favorable ToTFavorable ToT
Access to loanAccess to loan
Linkage to RiverineLinkage to Riverine
High milk priceHigh milk price
Erratic rainfallErratic rainfall
HH stocks depletedHH stocks depleted
Reduced milk Prod.Reduced milk Prod.
Lack of seedsLack of seeds
High staple priceHigh staple price
Less jobLess job
opportunityopportunity

Projected % of Food DeficitProjected % of Food Deficit
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern
FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)
DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)
AP-AP-
RainfedRainfed
(sorghum(sorghum
/ cattle)/ cattle)
Balad, JowharBalad, Jowhar
andand
W/Weyne/AfgoyeW/Weyne/Afgoye
ZeroZero 25%25%

Northern and Central PastoralNorthern and Central Pastoral
Areas of ConcernAreas of Concern NORTH WEST REGION
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
PASTORALISTS
AGRO-PASTORALISTS
FISHING
URBAN
NORTH EAST ZONE
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
PASTORALISTS
FISHING

Vulnerable areas of NWVulnerable areas of NW
Somalia (Somaliland)Somalia (Somaliland)
Sool plateau (Sanag andSool plateau (Sanag and
Sool Regions)Sool Regions)

Sool PlateauSool Plateau
 Successive rain failure for the last 3-4 yearsSuccessive rain failure for the last 3-4 years
 Progressive asset depletion and income lossProgressive asset depletion and income loss
 Water prices have increased four times since theWater prices have increased four times since the
beginning of the prolonged drought; highlybeginning of the prolonged drought; highly
unusual trucking water inunusual trucking water in hagaahagaa seasonseason
 Distress coping strategies have led to severeDistress coping strategies have led to severe
environmental degradationenvironmental degradation
 High malnutrition rate among children (up toHigh malnutrition rate among children (up to
17%)17%)

Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003Camel Calving rates From 1998-2003
Sool Plateau and lower NugalSool Plateau and lower Nugal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Dayr
98
Gu 99 Dayr
99
Gu 00 Dayr
00
Gu 01 Dayr
01
Gu 02 Dary
02
Gu 03
season/year
%calving

Current Seasonal Livestock ReproductionCurrent Seasonal Livestock Reproduction
compared to Normalcompared to Normal
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Camel
2%
sheep Goat
Baseline
current

Camel death rate (cumulative)Camel death rate (cumulative)
in the last four yearsin the last four years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003years
%

Traditional camel herd dynamics vsTraditional camel herd dynamics vs
current situationcurrent situation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Suckling calves <4 yrs olds >5 yrs females >5 yrs males
Baseline
Current

Food security situation outlookFood security situation outlook
 Given a normalGiven a normal deyrdeyr::
– All “poor” and “lower middle” will continueAll “poor” and “lower middle” will continue
to be food insecureto be food insecure
– Slow recovery – even ifSlow recovery – even if deyrdeyr is good - asis good - as
restocking rates are well below normal, andrestocking rates are well below normal, and
almost zero for camelalmost zero for camel
– Current herd size (35-40 shoats) hasCurrent herd size (35-40 shoats) has
serious food security implications for “poor”serious food security implications for “poor”
– Increased likelihood to exit from pastoralIncreased likelihood to exit from pastoral
system + huge exodus to townssystem + huge exodus to towns

Vulnerable areas of NE SomaliaVulnerable areas of NE Somalia
(Puntland)(Puntland)
and Central Regionsand Central Regions
Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak,Conflict in Central Regions (Abudwak,
Hobio, El Bur)Hobio, El Bur)
Sool Plateau of Bari regionSool Plateau of Bari region
Lower Nugal (small part)Lower Nugal (small part)

SorghumSorghum
BeltBelt
SORGHUM BELT
LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS
PASTORALISTS
AGRO-PASTORALISTS
RIVERINE

Region
Main Cereal Production
Major factors
affecting
production
Gu 2003
production
(MT)
Gu 2002
production
(MT)
Gu 2003 Gu 2003
as % of
2002
as % of
PWA*
Hiraan 890 670 +33% -83%
• Poor & erratic rainfall,
heavy infestation of
pests, poor cultural
practices, high fuel prices
(irrigation), river level
fluctuation (flooding)
Bay 29050 63180 - 54% - 36%
• Poor & erratic rainfall,
heavy infestation of
pests, poor cultural
practices, insecurity &
high transport costs.
Bakool 335 1200 -72% -90%
• As above except
insecurity

ComparedCompared
w/ Lastw/ Last
YearYear
ComparedCompared
“Normal”“Normal”
YearYear
Remarks (list notable exceptions)Remarks (list notable exceptions)
PasturePasture NormalNormal normalnormal  Agro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattleAgro-pastoral/riverine (Hiran) poor -cattle
migration to Ethiopia.migration to Ethiopia.
 less fodder in some crop failure areasless fodder in some crop failure areas
(agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)(agro-pastoral of Bay & Bakool)
WaterWater NormalNormal normalnormal  Water scarcity in parts ofWater scarcity in parts of
Qansaxdhere/Dinsor & HuddurQansaxdhere/Dinsor & Huddur
DiseaseDisease NormalNormal normalnormal  Exceptional unidentified diseases reportedExceptional unidentified diseases reported
in Raxole of Dinsor districtin Raxole of Dinsor district
MarketMarket NormalNormal normalnormal  High demand for cattle improvedHigh demand for cattle improved
purchasing power of pastoral and agro-purchasing power of pastoral and agro-
pastoral FEGs (Hiran).pastoral FEGs (Hiran).
 High cattle/shoat meat demand in DinsorHigh cattle/shoat meat demand in Dinsor
& Qansaxdhere from Garissa& Qansaxdhere from Garissa
OverallOverall NormalNormal NormalNormal  Terms of trade (livestock/cereal &Terms of trade (livestock/cereal &
milk/cereal) favourable for livestock ownersmilk/cereal) favourable for livestock owners


Good prices of livestock andGood prices of livestock and
livestock productslivestock products
 Significant old cereal stocksSignificant old cereal stocks
from last Deyr seasonfrom last Deyr season
improving current cerealimproving current cereal
availability.availability.
 Relative stability in Hiran &Relative stability in Hiran &
BakoolBakool

Insecurity in Baidoa areaInsecurity in Baidoa area
Drought/flood (ETHIOPIA) inDrought/flood (ETHIOPIA) in
HiranHiran
Predicted high cereal pricesPredicted high cereal prices
(positive/negative)(positive/negative)
Extreme seed scarcityExtreme seed scarcity
(bakool & Hiran)(bakool & Hiran)

Projected % of Food deficits for “poor”Projected % of Food deficits for “poor”
in Areas of Concernin Areas of Concern
FEZFEZ DistrictsDistricts DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 100%)(Deyr 100%)
DeficitDeficit
(Deyr 50%)(Deyr 50%)
Agro-Agro-
pastoralpastoral
Beledweyne,Beledweyne,
Buloburto &Buloburto &
JalalaqsiJalalaqsi
0%0% 30%30%
RiverineRiverine Buloburto,Buloburto,
Beledwein &Beledwein &
JalalaqsiJalalaqsi
0%0% 50-60 %50-60 %
Agro-Agro-
pastoralpastoral
Hudur, Elberde &Hudur, Elberde &
Tieglow, Rabdure,Tieglow, Rabdure,
WajidWajid
25%25% 39%39%
Bay-BakoolBay-Bakool
Agro-Agro-
pastoralpastoral
Rabdure, Tieglow,Rabdure, Tieglow,
Bardhere, Dinsor &Bardhere, Dinsor &
QansaxdhereQansaxdhere
0%0% 56%56%

Map Legend
Districts
fez-district
No Deficit
Deficit 0 to 10%
Deficit 10% to 20%
Deficit 20% to 30%
Deficit greater than 30%
Documents
0 K m 6 5 6 K m
Deficits - Deyr Rains 100% of Average
Disclaimer: This map is an approximation
and may contain omissions.

Map Legend
Districts
fez-district
No Deficit
Deficit 0% to 10%
Deficit 10% to 20%
Deficit 20% to 30%
Deficit greater than 30%
Documents
0 K m 6 5 6 K m
Deficits - Deyr Rains 50% of Average
Disclaimer: This map is an approximation
and may contain omissions.

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