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RESEARCHING AGE-FRIENDLY CITIES: AN
OVERVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH ISSUES
AND PRIORITIES
CHRIS PHILLIPSON
Sociology/MICRA
The University of Manchester, UK
AREAS FOR DISCUSSION
• Background to the ‘age-friendly’ approach
• Why the debate on age-friendly cities &
communities?
• Challenges to developing age-friendly cities and
communities
• Developing a strategy for developing age-friendly
communities
• Key research & policy questions
Background to AFCs
• Concept developed by World Health
Organization:
‘An “age-friendly city” is an inclusive and
accessible community environment that
optimizes opportunities for health, participation
and security for all people, in order that quality
of life and dignity are ensured as people age”.
WHO (2015) Measuring the Age-Friendliness of Cities
WHAT MAKES FOR AN AGE-FRIENDLY CITY?
WHO GUIDE (2007)
• Outdoor spaces and buildings (e.g. public
toilets, well-maintained pavements)
• Transportation (reliable, frequent)
• Housing (affordable, support to ‘age in place’)
• Social Participation (outreach for those
isolated)
• Respect and social inclusion (anti-
discrimination)
WHAT MAKES FOR AN AGE-FRIENDLY CITY?
WHO GUIDE (2007)
• Civic participation and employment (good
quality employment, volunteering)
• Communication and information (good access
to information about services & activities)
• Community support and health services
(good range of services, community
emergency plans in place).
BACKGROUND TO AFCs
2006 ‘Global Age-friendly cities project’ – to identify
factors which make urban environments ‘age-friendly’.
2010 Launch of Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities
(320 cities & communities across 80
countries – 2017 figures).
2011 1st International Conference on Age-Friendly Cities
(Dublin)
2013 2nd International Conference on AFCs (Ottawa)
2016 International Federation on Ageing, Global
Conference on Ageing, Brisbane.
INFLUENCES ON AGE-FRIENDLY MODEL
• Age-friendly approach emerged from public
health context – linked with promotion of
‘active ageing’ (WHO, 2002)
• Supported also by research in environmental
gerontology – importance of home and
neighbourhood for identity (Rowles &
Chaudhury, 2005)
INFLUENCES ON AGE-FRIENDLY MODEL
• 80% of the time of people aged over 70 is spent
at home and immediate surroundings, hence the
importance of a high quality physical
environment (Wahl et al., 2012).
• Emphasis on ‘ageing in place’ in health & social
care policy (Wiles et al., 2012) although some
concern that the places in which ageing took
place were not fit for purpose (Scharf et al., 2002;
Golant, 2014)
WHY THE DEBATE ON AGE-FRIENDLY CITIES?
• DEMOGRAPHIC: POPULATION AGEING
• PUBLIC POLICY: DEBATES ABOUT PRESSURES
FACING CITIES
Sources: Institut de la du Quebec (2014); Insee, modele OMPHALE; Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt Berlin (2016);
ONS (2016).
*Berlin 2014-2030, ** Montreal 2011-2031.
14,800
18,300
44,600
146,300
161,000
500,600
56,000
68,000
189,000
439,800
844,000
1,484,000
318,700
598,000
1,245,700
2,188,800
3,836,300
10,328,000
Figure 1. Projected change in people aged 65 years and over in
selected capital cities, 2014-2031, contrasted with total population
Projected total population: 2031 Projected total number of persons aged 65 and over: 2031
Increase in number of people aged 65 and over
Why the Debate on Age-friendly Cities?
Public Policy Issues
• ‘Sustainable Cities’
How can urban development be managed to meet the needs
of current and future generations?
• ‘Harmonious Cities’ (UN-Habitat)
How can we achieve social justice and fairness in the city?
• Lifetime homes and neighbourhoods.
How can we best support ‘ageing in place’?
• Impact of urban regeneration/gentrification
Exclusionary affects on particular groups of older people
12
AFCs as a response to experience of urban life
• Fear of Crime/Feelings of insecurity (despite low levels
of victimisation) may limit participation in ‘normal daily
life’: 33% -50% of older people may feel unsafe moving
around their neighbourhood at night (Office of National
Statistics, 2016).
• Contrast between older people ageing in place and
highly mobile (student/professional) populations.
• Access to Amenities and Services:
Social participation increases with access to wide
range of facilities
• Broader range of social networks
Cultural and social diversity
13
Age-friendly cities & the political economy of
urban change
Rapid expansion of Global Network of AFCs but
this has to be placed in a context of:
• Economic recession
• Contraction of welfare state
• Austerity policies
• Intensification of global competition
between cities
(Walsh et al., 2015; Sassen, 2014; Gamble, 2016)
Research questions
• How does urban development influence AFCs?
• To what extent has the development of AFCs
been affected by recession/austerity policies?
• Does being an AFC protect older people from
cuts to social programmes?
• How does the AFC model fare given competition
with other priorities/vested interests?
• What is the basis for an alternative age-friendly
agenda?
Examples
• New York
• Manchester
• London
• Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney
• Barcelona
• Madrid
• San Francisco
(Buffel & Phillipson, 2016)
Problems facing global age-friendly cities
• The gentrification problem
• The ownership problem
• The austerity problem
Development of AFCs coincided with….
• Dismantling of regulatory frameworks to control
urban development coincided with attempts to
develop age-friendly cities (Sudjic, 2016)
• ‘Polarisation in the distribution of wealth and
power etched into the spatial forms of our cities’
(Harvey, 2012)
• Deterioration of public spaces in de-
industrialising cities affected by ‘institutional
disengagement’ (Gans, 1972)
Developing AFC policies for unequal cities
• Focus on housing as the pivot for AFCs
• Focus on ageing in the community
• Focus on urban management
• Focus on embedding AFC work in a radical
public policy agenda
HOUSING
SECURITY
& Choice
Transportation
Social
Participation
Respect
and social
inclusion
Civic
participation
and
employment
Communica
tion and
information
Community
support and
health
services
Outdoor
spaces
and
buildings
Focus on housing
• Role of international developers and ‘global economic elites’
distorting housing markets: ‘ghost streets’; 10% of central
London properties registered to offshore tax havens (Booth
et al., 2016) as investment vehicles.
• Decline of affordable housing (Navarro & Lee, 2014; Dorling,
2015)
• Increase and ‘greying’ of homeless population (Desmond,
2016; NYT, 2016)
• Lifetime renting for those on low and middle incomes
staying in cities (Projections: 60% 20-39 renting; 21% 45-54
in UK by 2025, PwC, 2016)
Housing & neighbourhood networks
• Neighbourhoods can be viewed as environments
in which social relations and identity are
constructed
• Gardner (2011 Jrnl of Aging Studies) highlights
the importance of what she terms ‘natural
neighbourhood networks’ which complement
family ties: neighbours, local businesses,
strangers
• Neighbourhoods have ‘third spaces’ which may
be especially important to older people:
seats by bus stops; cafes; entrances to buildings
(i.e. zones of transition)
Table 1: Friendships in the neighbourhood: by selected age
groups and sex, 2009-2010 (UKHLS): Strongly agree etc. that
friendships in neighbourhood are important to me.
UK All % Men % Women %
50-54 64 61 67
55-59 66 63 69
60-64 71 68 74
65-69 75 71 79
70-74 81 78 84
75-79 81 79 83
80 and over 82 81 83
All aged 16 and
over
60 57 64
Table 2: Belonging to the neighbourhood: selected
age groups and sex, 2009-10 (%) UKHLS (Strongly agree
I feel I belong to this neighbourhood)
UK All Men Women
50-54 69 68 70
55-59 73 73 74
60-64 76 75 76
65-69 80 79 81
70-74 84 83 86
75-79 85 84 85
80 and over 84 84 84
All aged 16 and
over
66 64 68
Table 3: Attitudes towards the neighbourhood: proportion
of older people agreeing or disagreeing with statements
relating to neighbourhood (N=600) (%)
43
27
30
During the last two years my
neighbourhood has got better as
a place to live in
31
17
52
This neighbourhood is a good
place to grow old in
21
21
58
I feel I can trust the people in
my neighbourhood
19
12
69
I like to think of myself as similar
to the people who live in this
neighbourhood
18
11
71
I frequently stop and talk with
people in my neighbourhood
12
10
78
I believe my neighbours would
help me in an emergency
Disagree
Neither agree
nor disagree
Agree
Statement
Source: Keele Urban Deprivation Study
Ageing in community: strategies for co-
operation and solidarity
• Co-location of services (Stafford, 2012; Scharlach
and Lehning, 2016)
‘Village’ model & Naturally Occurring Retirement
Communities
• Co-housing (Pedersen, 2015;
http://sydneycohousing.blogspot.co.uk/)
• Co-operative urban design (White et al. 2013)
• Co-production strategies with older people
(Buffel, 2014)
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTING AGE-
FRIENDLY CITIES
• AFC model needs to recognise importance of
building coalitions with urban interest groups.
Weakness of current model is that operates
outside the political & economic interests
which shape urban environments.
• AFC strengthened if embedded in networks of
power which control urban life (e.g. Caro,
2015)
DEVELOPING A RADICAL PUBLIC POLICY
AGENDA
• Embedding age-friendly policies in urban economic
development as well as public health
• Building coalitions with urban interest groups
• Developing new sources of finance to develop age-
friendly cities:
 Creation of an ‘inclusive city fund’: levy on property
sales on homes above a certain value: fund to be used
to develop social/affordable housing (Atkinson et al.,
2016).
 Land value tax on undeveloped developable land
worth above a certain value: as an encouragement for
new building and housing investment (Dorling, 2015).
What are the key research challenges for AFCs
to address?
• What does ‘age-friendliness’ actually mean: what does it look
like?
• How can it be assessed or measured? (WHO, 2015)
• What are the benefits?
• How does it vary at neighbourhood, city, and regional level?
• Does it work for some groups but not others?
• How does it link to other policy interventions relating to health
and social care?
• How is it affected by broad processes of urban change &
development?
What are the Key Policy Questions
for AFCs to Address?
• Cities are viewed as key drivers for economic
success – ‘the urban renaissance’ – but can they
integrate ageing populations as well?
• Can the resources of the city be used to improve
quality of life in old age – only 1 in 20 older
households may have the money to take
advantage of what great cities have to offer.
• Can cities be designed in the interests of
all age groups?
31
What are the Key Policy Questions
for AFCs to Address?
• Opportunity to use ‘age-friendly’ model to
stimulate linkages between housing, health,
and community-based services.
• Importance of developing co-ordinated
approach – whose responsibility? Financial
incentives? Legislation?
• Developing more ambitious targets for
age-friendly cities, environments and
communities.
Age-friendly movement needs to tackle the
‘big’ issues
‘Instead of or perhaps in addition to the
multidimensional frameworks that currently
organize age-friendly work, it is time to narrow the
focus of the work and concentrate not on all things
needed to become age-friendly but the strategic
opportunities currently available. It is time to pull
“big levers” (e.g. in housing finance, transportation
finance, economic development) that if successful
could greatly facilitate age-friendly work’.
Lawler, K (2015) Age-friendly communities: go big
or go home. Public Policy & Aging Report, 25.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Buffel, Phillipson, C. and Scharf, T. 2013. Experiences of neighbourhood
exclusion and inclusion among older people living in deprived inner-city areas
in Belgium and England. Ageing & Society, 33, 89-109.
Buffel, T. (2015) Researching Age-Friendly Communities: Stories from Older
People as Co-Researchers. Manchester: The University of Manchester Library.
Caro, F. and Fitzgerald, K. (2016) International Perspective s on age-friendly
cities. London: Routledge
Minton, A. (2009) Ground Control. Penguin Books
New York: Office of the Comptroller (2014) The Growing Gap: New York City’s
Housing Affordability Challenge.
REFERENCES
Phillipson, C. (2013) Ageing. Polity Press
Phillipson, C (2011) Developing age-friendly communities:
New approaches to growing old in urban communities. In
Settersten, R and Angel, J (eds) Handbook of Sociology of
Aging. New York: Springer
Walsh, K. (2015) ‘Interrogating the “age-friendly”
community in austerity: myths, realities and the influence
of place context’. In Walsh, K., Carney, G. and Lèime, Á
(eds) Ageing Through Austerity. Bristol: Policy Press.
Zukin, S. 2010. The Naked City: The Death and Life of
Authentic Urban Places. New York: Oxford University
Press

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Manchester symposium - age-friendly city.pptx

  • 1. RESEARCHING AGE-FRIENDLY CITIES: AN OVERVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH ISSUES AND PRIORITIES CHRIS PHILLIPSON Sociology/MICRA The University of Manchester, UK
  • 2. AREAS FOR DISCUSSION • Background to the ‘age-friendly’ approach • Why the debate on age-friendly cities & communities? • Challenges to developing age-friendly cities and communities • Developing a strategy for developing age-friendly communities • Key research & policy questions
  • 3. Background to AFCs • Concept developed by World Health Organization: ‘An “age-friendly city” is an inclusive and accessible community environment that optimizes opportunities for health, participation and security for all people, in order that quality of life and dignity are ensured as people age”. WHO (2015) Measuring the Age-Friendliness of Cities
  • 4.
  • 5. WHAT MAKES FOR AN AGE-FRIENDLY CITY? WHO GUIDE (2007) • Outdoor spaces and buildings (e.g. public toilets, well-maintained pavements) • Transportation (reliable, frequent) • Housing (affordable, support to ‘age in place’) • Social Participation (outreach for those isolated) • Respect and social inclusion (anti- discrimination)
  • 6. WHAT MAKES FOR AN AGE-FRIENDLY CITY? WHO GUIDE (2007) • Civic participation and employment (good quality employment, volunteering) • Communication and information (good access to information about services & activities) • Community support and health services (good range of services, community emergency plans in place).
  • 7. BACKGROUND TO AFCs 2006 ‘Global Age-friendly cities project’ – to identify factors which make urban environments ‘age-friendly’. 2010 Launch of Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities (320 cities & communities across 80 countries – 2017 figures). 2011 1st International Conference on Age-Friendly Cities (Dublin) 2013 2nd International Conference on AFCs (Ottawa) 2016 International Federation on Ageing, Global Conference on Ageing, Brisbane.
  • 8. INFLUENCES ON AGE-FRIENDLY MODEL • Age-friendly approach emerged from public health context – linked with promotion of ‘active ageing’ (WHO, 2002) • Supported also by research in environmental gerontology – importance of home and neighbourhood for identity (Rowles & Chaudhury, 2005)
  • 9. INFLUENCES ON AGE-FRIENDLY MODEL • 80% of the time of people aged over 70 is spent at home and immediate surroundings, hence the importance of a high quality physical environment (Wahl et al., 2012). • Emphasis on ‘ageing in place’ in health & social care policy (Wiles et al., 2012) although some concern that the places in which ageing took place were not fit for purpose (Scharf et al., 2002; Golant, 2014)
  • 10. WHY THE DEBATE ON AGE-FRIENDLY CITIES? • DEMOGRAPHIC: POPULATION AGEING • PUBLIC POLICY: DEBATES ABOUT PRESSURES FACING CITIES
  • 11. Sources: Institut de la du Quebec (2014); Insee, modele OMPHALE; Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt Berlin (2016); ONS (2016). *Berlin 2014-2030, ** Montreal 2011-2031. 14,800 18,300 44,600 146,300 161,000 500,600 56,000 68,000 189,000 439,800 844,000 1,484,000 318,700 598,000 1,245,700 2,188,800 3,836,300 10,328,000 Figure 1. Projected change in people aged 65 years and over in selected capital cities, 2014-2031, contrasted with total population Projected total population: 2031 Projected total number of persons aged 65 and over: 2031 Increase in number of people aged 65 and over
  • 12. Why the Debate on Age-friendly Cities? Public Policy Issues • ‘Sustainable Cities’ How can urban development be managed to meet the needs of current and future generations? • ‘Harmonious Cities’ (UN-Habitat) How can we achieve social justice and fairness in the city? • Lifetime homes and neighbourhoods. How can we best support ‘ageing in place’? • Impact of urban regeneration/gentrification Exclusionary affects on particular groups of older people 12
  • 13. AFCs as a response to experience of urban life • Fear of Crime/Feelings of insecurity (despite low levels of victimisation) may limit participation in ‘normal daily life’: 33% -50% of older people may feel unsafe moving around their neighbourhood at night (Office of National Statistics, 2016). • Contrast between older people ageing in place and highly mobile (student/professional) populations. • Access to Amenities and Services: Social participation increases with access to wide range of facilities • Broader range of social networks Cultural and social diversity 13
  • 14. Age-friendly cities & the political economy of urban change Rapid expansion of Global Network of AFCs but this has to be placed in a context of: • Economic recession • Contraction of welfare state • Austerity policies • Intensification of global competition between cities (Walsh et al., 2015; Sassen, 2014; Gamble, 2016)
  • 15. Research questions • How does urban development influence AFCs? • To what extent has the development of AFCs been affected by recession/austerity policies? • Does being an AFC protect older people from cuts to social programmes? • How does the AFC model fare given competition with other priorities/vested interests? • What is the basis for an alternative age-friendly agenda?
  • 16. Examples • New York • Manchester • London • Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney • Barcelona • Madrid • San Francisco (Buffel & Phillipson, 2016)
  • 17. Problems facing global age-friendly cities • The gentrification problem • The ownership problem • The austerity problem
  • 18. Development of AFCs coincided with…. • Dismantling of regulatory frameworks to control urban development coincided with attempts to develop age-friendly cities (Sudjic, 2016) • ‘Polarisation in the distribution of wealth and power etched into the spatial forms of our cities’ (Harvey, 2012) • Deterioration of public spaces in de- industrialising cities affected by ‘institutional disengagement’ (Gans, 1972)
  • 19. Developing AFC policies for unequal cities • Focus on housing as the pivot for AFCs • Focus on ageing in the community • Focus on urban management • Focus on embedding AFC work in a radical public policy agenda
  • 20.
  • 22. Focus on housing • Role of international developers and ‘global economic elites’ distorting housing markets: ‘ghost streets’; 10% of central London properties registered to offshore tax havens (Booth et al., 2016) as investment vehicles. • Decline of affordable housing (Navarro & Lee, 2014; Dorling, 2015) • Increase and ‘greying’ of homeless population (Desmond, 2016; NYT, 2016) • Lifetime renting for those on low and middle incomes staying in cities (Projections: 60% 20-39 renting; 21% 45-54 in UK by 2025, PwC, 2016)
  • 23. Housing & neighbourhood networks • Neighbourhoods can be viewed as environments in which social relations and identity are constructed • Gardner (2011 Jrnl of Aging Studies) highlights the importance of what she terms ‘natural neighbourhood networks’ which complement family ties: neighbours, local businesses, strangers • Neighbourhoods have ‘third spaces’ which may be especially important to older people: seats by bus stops; cafes; entrances to buildings (i.e. zones of transition)
  • 24. Table 1: Friendships in the neighbourhood: by selected age groups and sex, 2009-2010 (UKHLS): Strongly agree etc. that friendships in neighbourhood are important to me. UK All % Men % Women % 50-54 64 61 67 55-59 66 63 69 60-64 71 68 74 65-69 75 71 79 70-74 81 78 84 75-79 81 79 83 80 and over 82 81 83 All aged 16 and over 60 57 64
  • 25. Table 2: Belonging to the neighbourhood: selected age groups and sex, 2009-10 (%) UKHLS (Strongly agree I feel I belong to this neighbourhood) UK All Men Women 50-54 69 68 70 55-59 73 73 74 60-64 76 75 76 65-69 80 79 81 70-74 84 83 86 75-79 85 84 85 80 and over 84 84 84 All aged 16 and over 66 64 68
  • 26. Table 3: Attitudes towards the neighbourhood: proportion of older people agreeing or disagreeing with statements relating to neighbourhood (N=600) (%) 43 27 30 During the last two years my neighbourhood has got better as a place to live in 31 17 52 This neighbourhood is a good place to grow old in 21 21 58 I feel I can trust the people in my neighbourhood 19 12 69 I like to think of myself as similar to the people who live in this neighbourhood 18 11 71 I frequently stop and talk with people in my neighbourhood 12 10 78 I believe my neighbours would help me in an emergency Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Statement Source: Keele Urban Deprivation Study
  • 27. Ageing in community: strategies for co- operation and solidarity • Co-location of services (Stafford, 2012; Scharlach and Lehning, 2016) ‘Village’ model & Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities • Co-housing (Pedersen, 2015; http://sydneycohousing.blogspot.co.uk/) • Co-operative urban design (White et al. 2013) • Co-production strategies with older people (Buffel, 2014)
  • 28. URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTING AGE- FRIENDLY CITIES • AFC model needs to recognise importance of building coalitions with urban interest groups. Weakness of current model is that operates outside the political & economic interests which shape urban environments. • AFC strengthened if embedded in networks of power which control urban life (e.g. Caro, 2015)
  • 29. DEVELOPING A RADICAL PUBLIC POLICY AGENDA • Embedding age-friendly policies in urban economic development as well as public health • Building coalitions with urban interest groups • Developing new sources of finance to develop age- friendly cities:  Creation of an ‘inclusive city fund’: levy on property sales on homes above a certain value: fund to be used to develop social/affordable housing (Atkinson et al., 2016).  Land value tax on undeveloped developable land worth above a certain value: as an encouragement for new building and housing investment (Dorling, 2015).
  • 30. What are the key research challenges for AFCs to address? • What does ‘age-friendliness’ actually mean: what does it look like? • How can it be assessed or measured? (WHO, 2015) • What are the benefits? • How does it vary at neighbourhood, city, and regional level? • Does it work for some groups but not others? • How does it link to other policy interventions relating to health and social care? • How is it affected by broad processes of urban change & development?
  • 31. What are the Key Policy Questions for AFCs to Address? • Cities are viewed as key drivers for economic success – ‘the urban renaissance’ – but can they integrate ageing populations as well? • Can the resources of the city be used to improve quality of life in old age – only 1 in 20 older households may have the money to take advantage of what great cities have to offer. • Can cities be designed in the interests of all age groups? 31
  • 32. What are the Key Policy Questions for AFCs to Address? • Opportunity to use ‘age-friendly’ model to stimulate linkages between housing, health, and community-based services. • Importance of developing co-ordinated approach – whose responsibility? Financial incentives? Legislation? • Developing more ambitious targets for age-friendly cities, environments and communities.
  • 33. Age-friendly movement needs to tackle the ‘big’ issues ‘Instead of or perhaps in addition to the multidimensional frameworks that currently organize age-friendly work, it is time to narrow the focus of the work and concentrate not on all things needed to become age-friendly but the strategic opportunities currently available. It is time to pull “big levers” (e.g. in housing finance, transportation finance, economic development) that if successful could greatly facilitate age-friendly work’. Lawler, K (2015) Age-friendly communities: go big or go home. Public Policy & Aging Report, 25.
  • 34. SELECTED REFERENCES Buffel, Phillipson, C. and Scharf, T. 2013. Experiences of neighbourhood exclusion and inclusion among older people living in deprived inner-city areas in Belgium and England. Ageing & Society, 33, 89-109. Buffel, T. (2015) Researching Age-Friendly Communities: Stories from Older People as Co-Researchers. Manchester: The University of Manchester Library. Caro, F. and Fitzgerald, K. (2016) International Perspective s on age-friendly cities. London: Routledge Minton, A. (2009) Ground Control. Penguin Books New York: Office of the Comptroller (2014) The Growing Gap: New York City’s Housing Affordability Challenge.
  • 35. REFERENCES Phillipson, C. (2013) Ageing. Polity Press Phillipson, C (2011) Developing age-friendly communities: New approaches to growing old in urban communities. In Settersten, R and Angel, J (eds) Handbook of Sociology of Aging. New York: Springer Walsh, K. (2015) ‘Interrogating the “age-friendly” community in austerity: myths, realities and the influence of place context’. In Walsh, K., Carney, G. and Lèime, Á (eds) Ageing Through Austerity. Bristol: Policy Press. Zukin, S. 2010. The Naked City: The Death and Life of Authentic Urban Places. New York: Oxford University Press

Editor's Notes

  1. Yet there is a paradox: people feel unsafe and vulnerable in their communities but still have a sense of trusting those around them. But the contrast between the top and bottom rows is important. Despite the changes around them some sense of trust was apparent and in terms of straight satisfaction 68 per cent still expressed some degree of satisfaction with their community as a place to live. People still report being very committed to their neighbourhood; contrasting its contemporary reality (often violent) with their sense of feeling it is where they belong. But the last row is important: the surrounding deprivation is one thing; population turnover another: this creating a real sense to instability as the comments in the next slide demonstrate: