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By: www.BuyOrganicCoffee.org
How much of the cost of a cup of 
coffee are the beans? This question 
comes to mind as the price of 
Arabica coffee goes up again.
We wrote previously that the Brazil 
drought drives coffee prices 
higher.
But if the price of coffee beans goes 
up ten percent does the cost of your 
coffee go up by the same percent or 
the same number of cents?
The United States Department of 
Agriculture published an article 
about the cost pass-through in the 
coffee industry. We found it 
published at Colombia.edu.
A rich data set of coffee prices and 
costs was used to determine to what 
extent changes in commodity costs 
affect manufacturer and retail prices.
On average, a 10-cent increase in 
the cost of a pound of green coffee 
beans in a given quarter results in a 
2-cent increase in manufacturer and 
retail prices in that quarter.
If a cost change persists for several 
quarters, it will be incorporated into 
manufacturer prices approximately 
cent-for-cent with the commodity-cost 
change.
Given the substantial fixed costs and 
markups involved in coffee 
manufacturing, this translates into 
about a 3-percent change in retail 
prices for a 10-percent change in 
commodity prices.
We do not find robust evidence that 
coffee prices respond more to 
increases than to decreases in 
costs.
Thus there is an eventual thirty 
percent pass-through in the cost of 
green coffee beans to a bag of 
roasted coffee beans.
This tells us how much of the cost of 
coffee are the beans.
Organic versus Regular Coffee
The price of coffee is going up 
because of the drought in Brazil.
The bountiful harvest in Colombia is 
not enough to pick up the slack.
But, other factors come to bear on 
the price of organic coffee and the 
market price of healthy organic 
coffee beans.
The problem with organic coffee 
production is not drought but heat.
Coffee leaf rust usually does not 
infect coffee grown at altitudes 
higher than 6,000 feet.
This is because the fungus cannot 
tolerate the low nighttime 
temperature usually found at that 
altitude.
But, as temperatures climb just a 
few degrees in the nighttime in 
Central and South America the 
fungus is creeping up the slopes to 
where organic coffee is commonly 
grown.
The issue with organic coffee is that 
there is a lot less of it than regular 
coffee.
Although the cost to put a bag of 
organic coffee on the shelf of a store 
in North America only goes up thirty 
percent of the percent rise in the 
cost of coffee beans the scarcity of 
organic coffee will tend to drive 
prices higher.
This is the age old law of supply and 
demand.
Eventually other producers will catch 
on to what Colombia has done. They 
will replant with leaf rust resistant 
strains.
This will allow coffee production and 
especially organic coffee production 
to rise again and help bring down 
prices.
In the meantime expect to pay more 
for organic coffee beans.

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How Much of the Cost of a Cup of Coffee Are the Beans?

  • 2. How much of the cost of a cup of coffee are the beans? This question comes to mind as the price of Arabica coffee goes up again.
  • 3. We wrote previously that the Brazil drought drives coffee prices higher.
  • 4. But if the price of coffee beans goes up ten percent does the cost of your coffee go up by the same percent or the same number of cents?
  • 5. The United States Department of Agriculture published an article about the cost pass-through in the coffee industry. We found it published at Colombia.edu.
  • 6. A rich data set of coffee prices and costs was used to determine to what extent changes in commodity costs affect manufacturer and retail prices.
  • 7. On average, a 10-cent increase in the cost of a pound of green coffee beans in a given quarter results in a 2-cent increase in manufacturer and retail prices in that quarter.
  • 8. If a cost change persists for several quarters, it will be incorporated into manufacturer prices approximately cent-for-cent with the commodity-cost change.
  • 9. Given the substantial fixed costs and markups involved in coffee manufacturing, this translates into about a 3-percent change in retail prices for a 10-percent change in commodity prices.
  • 10. We do not find robust evidence that coffee prices respond more to increases than to decreases in costs.
  • 11. Thus there is an eventual thirty percent pass-through in the cost of green coffee beans to a bag of roasted coffee beans.
  • 12. This tells us how much of the cost of coffee are the beans.
  • 14. The price of coffee is going up because of the drought in Brazil.
  • 15. The bountiful harvest in Colombia is not enough to pick up the slack.
  • 16. But, other factors come to bear on the price of organic coffee and the market price of healthy organic coffee beans.
  • 17. The problem with organic coffee production is not drought but heat.
  • 18. Coffee leaf rust usually does not infect coffee grown at altitudes higher than 6,000 feet.
  • 19. This is because the fungus cannot tolerate the low nighttime temperature usually found at that altitude.
  • 20. But, as temperatures climb just a few degrees in the nighttime in Central and South America the fungus is creeping up the slopes to where organic coffee is commonly grown.
  • 21. The issue with organic coffee is that there is a lot less of it than regular coffee.
  • 22. Although the cost to put a bag of organic coffee on the shelf of a store in North America only goes up thirty percent of the percent rise in the cost of coffee beans the scarcity of organic coffee will tend to drive prices higher.
  • 23. This is the age old law of supply and demand.
  • 24. Eventually other producers will catch on to what Colombia has done. They will replant with leaf rust resistant strains.
  • 25. This will allow coffee production and especially organic coffee production to rise again and help bring down prices.
  • 26. In the meantime expect to pay more for organic coffee beans.