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AIR LAND SEA BULLETIN
Approved for public release; unlimited distribution.
Issue No. 2016-2 Summer 2016Air Land Sea Application (ALSA) Center
ALSB 2016-1 4
... network analy-
sis is conducted
to provide the
staff with deeper
understanding of
the structure and
function of the
network, which
is used to engage
and target other
networks.
CONSIDER ADAPTIVE NETWORKS TO FOSTER UNDER-
STANDING RELATIONSHIPS IN COMPLEX
OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTS
By Bryan Sopko; Matt Osman;
Maj Danica Slater, USMCR; Randy
Munch; Chris Worrett; and David
Miles.
INTRODUCTION
	 Analysis of the operational envi-
ronment (OE) is necessary to support
planning efforts, regardless of the type
of operation being conducted.1
The
staff must collect and analyze large
amounts of information from a variety
of sources to develop a comprehensive
understanding of the OE to provide
the commander situational awareness.
Additionally, the staff must focus on
key factors that are identified as criti-
cal variables which relate directly to
achieving the commander’s desired
end state. Refined analysis of the OE,
with a focus on human networks, sup-
ports identifying critical variables that
relate directly to a network’s ability to
form, function, and sustain itself in the
OE. The staff’s ability to gain a greater
understanding of these critical vari-
ables provides insight that supports
developing engagement plans to affect
selected networks.
	 The staff must conduct an in-
depth analysis of the selected network
to understand its structure and func-
tions. This provides insights and op-
tions on ways to identify the network’s
critical variables. Analysis of the OE
is a part of intelligence preparation
of the operational environment and is
expanded by the staff during the plan-
ning process. Simultaneously, net-
work analysis is conducted to provide
the staff with deeper understanding
of the structure and function of the
network, which is used to engage and
target other networks. By deliberately
expanding the analysis of the OE as it
relates, specifically, to networks that
the commander may desire to support,
influence or neutralize, a staff may be
able to determine the critical variables
that exist within the OE that facilitate
the network’s formation, growth, and
sustainment. Including these critical
variables as inputs to the targeting
process, the potential exists to produce
lasting effects on selected networks.
NETWORK FORMATION AND
SUSTAINMENT
	 Networks are a series of direct
and indirect ties from an actor to a
collection of others (nodes) and are
formed when the ties between two or
more nodes develop from some type of
common purpose. A catalyst, receptive
audience, and accommodating envi-
ronment, depicted in figure 1, are three
fundamental conditions that must be
fulfilled for network formation and
sustainment within an OE.2
	 A catalyst for a network may be
related to a single variable or multiple
variables that represent conditions
within the OE. Depending on the net-
work, there may be a variable within
the OE that is critical for supporting
the initial formation of the network. For
example, a critical variable that might
be identified as a catalyst for Al-Qaeda
is the ideology of the Sunni Muslim
religion.3
Since the inception of Al-Qa-
eda, other networks have formed and
aligned with Al-Qaeda and have done
so with variations on the basic ideol-
ogy. To engage networks effectively,
staffs must dedicate significant analyt-
ical effort to understanding them, in-
cluding the related catalysts and why
the message or narrative resonates
with the audience.
	 A receptive audience that sup-
ports the formation and sustainment
of a network is directly associated with
the catalyst for that network. Current
and future members of the network
have made, or will make, some type
ALSB 2016-15
The potential
for a network
to exist within
an environment
is limitless, but
the ability of
members of the
network to take
action in support
of the catalyst re-
lies solely on the
conditions within
that environ-
ment.
Network Formation and Sustainment Conditions
Catalyst: A variable within the operating environment that motivates or binds a group
of individuals together to take some type of action to fulfil a collective need.
Receptive Audience: A group of individuals that feel they have more to gain by engag-
ing in activities of the network than by not participating.
Accomodating Environment: Conditions within the operating environment that facili-
tate the organization and actions of a network.
of decision to join the network based
on whether their individual needs may
be met by an emerging network versus
what is provided for them from current
conditions within the OE. In essence,
the conditions and catalyst for a net-
work serve to influence and motivate
a portion of the meta-network to func-
tion as a receptive audience.4
A meta-
network is a composition of a group
of networks which are connected and
interrelated by common nodes. The
members of the receptive audience
will, essentially, weigh the opportuni-
ties and risks of joining the network
and then decide to join the network.
For example, in the spring of 2003 an
insurgent network formed in the city of
Fallujah, Iraq. Sunni Muslims and for-
mer Ba’ath Party members identified
themselves as being disenfranchised
and marginalized with the defeat of
the Iraqi regime. Members of this re-
ceptive audience related to the cata-
lyst for the insurgent group that would
be later identified as Al-Qaeda of Iraq
(AQI), and were motivated to join this
network to fulfill their needs.
	 Over time, the receptive audi-
ence’s perception of AQI changed, due
to a series of AQI atrocities against the
population. In the fall of 2006, Unit-
ed States (US) forces recognized this
change and supported an alternative
catalyst for members of this recep-
tive audience, resulting in the forma-
tion of a series of local defense forces
which were sanctioned and often sup-
ported by tribal elders. These networks
of forces were able to slowly recapture
the Al-Anbar province of Iraq from AQI,
which is commonly referred to as the
“Al-Anbar Awakening”.5
	 An accommodating environ-
ment exists when conditions within the
OE facilitate the actions of a network.6
The potential for a network to exist
within an environment is limitless, but
the ability of members of the network
to take action in support of the catalyst
relies solely on the conditions within
that environment. There are variables
associated with identifying the level of
accommodation that can be identified,
measured and affected. Eliminating
the conditions related to variables that
support an accommodating environ-
ment is unlikely. The complexity that
exists within an environment, com-
prised of a multitude of inter-related
networks, is a composite of numerous
variables. Vast resources are required
to adequately alter OE conditions that
impact the level of accommodation.
Examination of the recent actions of
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
within Iraq demonstrates the environ-
ment was less accommodating to ISIS
influence when coalition forces were
present.7
As coalition forces departed
Iraq, Iraqi forces did not possess the
same capabilities and; thus, provided
ISIS members with an accommodating
environment for them to take action in
support of their goals.
	 Removing or altering certain
conditions will require the network to
adapt to ensure survival. The actions
networks take to adapt may pose ad-
ditional risk; and, if understood, could
provide opportunity for further en-
gagement of the network. A compre-
hensive understanding of the OE and
Figure 1. Network Formation and Sustainment Conditions
ALSB 2016-1 6
Network Structure and Function Considerations
Structure
Nodes
•	 Function with network
•	 Links to other nodes
•	 Level of influence within the 	
network
•	 Pattern of life
Composition
•	 Nodes: People, Places, Things
•	 Resources: Money, Equip-
ment, etc.
Links
•	 Type: Family, Societal, Cul	
tural, etc.
•	 Strength: Strong/Weak
•	 Internal
Between nodes
•	 External
Association to other net-
works
Function
Capability
•	 Adaptability
•	 regeneration
•	 Recruitment
•	 Resource
•	 Train
•	 Conduct operations
•	 Communication
Intent
•	 Catalyst for formation
•	 Objectives
•	 Ideological goals
•	 Likely COAs/TTPs
Influence
•	 On other networks
•	 By other networks
Figure 2. Network Structure and Function Considerations (from Marine Corps Interim Publication 3–40.1, 74)
... consideration
of any network’s
structure and
function is nec-
essary as part
of the planning
process.
a detailed analysis of the networks are
required to identify the conditions that
support the network’s formation and
sustainment. Accomplishing these re-
quires gaining an understanding of the
conditions within the OE that must be
attained through refined analysis of
the mission variables and an in-depth
network analysis. Identifying and un-
derstanding these conditions will pro-
vide key information to support devel-
opment of an engagement plan for any
type of network that a commander may
desire to support, influence, or neu-
tralize.
NETWORK STRUCTURE AND
FUNCTION
	 Understanding a network re-
quires identifying characteristics that
define the network’s structure and
function. Network structure is the or-
ganization and relationship between
the nodes of a network, whereas the
network’s function is identified as ac-
tivities or purposes of the network or
one of its components. Regardless of
the type of capability being employed
to effect a network, consideration of
any network’s structure and function
is necessary as part of the planning
process.
	 Network analysis is conducted
using various techniques and can pro-
vide the commander with a variety of
information.8
The information should
be organized in a manner that facili-
tates understanding of how the net-
work is structured and how it func-
tions to support achieving goals as is
demonstrated in figure 2.
ALSB 2016-17
	 Common network analysis tech-
niques (such as network mapping, link
analysis and social network analysis
(SNA)) provide data that help a user
define the network structure and func-
tion. Analysts apply multiple network
analysis techniques that result in
layered products for use by the com-
mander and staff. These products are
not static, but are continuously updat-
ed (as new information is collected and
analyzed) to provide timely and accu-
rate situational understanding in sup-
port of planning and targeting.
Situational understanding is the
product of applying analysis and judg-
ment to relevant information to deter-
mine the relationships among the opera-
tional and mission variables to facilitate
decision-making. Building and main-
taining situational understanding is es-
sential for establishing the situation’s
context, developing effective plans, as-
sessing operations, and making qual-
ity decisions throughout the operations
process.
Army Doctrinal Publication 5-0, The
Operations Process, 17 May 2012, Page 5
	 The characteristics associated
with the structure and function of a
network are focal points for additional
exploration by US forces in support of
engagement planning and targeting.
Understanding structure and func-
tion of the network enables the abil-
ity to identify key nodes through ap-
plying SNA and a variety of network
analysis techniques. It is important to
understand a network’s functions as
they relate to critical OE variables. For
example, a critical OE variable might
be that an illegal drug network is gen-
erating so much illicit economic activ-
ity it is interfering with a host nation’s
ability to further develop licit economic
activity. A commander providing secu-
rity force assistance to the host nation
might determine the desired end state
will include neutralizing the drug net-
work to enable licit economic growth.
To achieve this, it would be essential
to significantly decrease the function-
ality of the drug network. To maximize
network neutralization, analysts would
need to understand critical network
functions and key nodes related to
those functions. Key nodes are those
that possess certain characteristics by
virtue of their position and intercon-
nectivity with other nodes. These char-
acteristics make key nodes targets for
achieving desired effects when they are
engaged in specific ways.
	 A common practice in target-
ing networks is to identify the network
nodes that are high in “betweenness
centrality.” Betweenness centrality
is determined when a node serves as
a connection between small clusters
(cliques or cells) or individual nodes
and the larger network.9
In the ex-
ample of the network prior to target-
ing (figure 3), the node Bob, possesses
the highest betweeness centrality. Al-
though SNA techniques are used to
identify this characteristic, SNA is not
applied independently. SNA is used,
optimally, with other network analy-
sis techniques. For this example, the
analyst has determined that targeting
Bob, Andy, and Jim would provide the
commander with the greatest ability to
achieve the desired end-state, which
is to maximize network fragmentation.
These nodes are highest in between-
ness centrality and, in essence, hold
the network together by virtue of their
positions and relationships.
NETWORK AFTER TARGETING
	 To ensure SNA is conducted on
a current understanding of the net-
work, the SNA analyst should incor-
porate as much data as possible and
consult with analysts from as many in-
telligence disciplines as are available.
Once the commander decides to tar-
get key nodes within the network, as a
part of the continuous implementation
of the collection plan, analysts possess
the ability to update the understand-
ing of the structure and function of the
targeted network by producing updat-
ed network analysis products. In figure
4, Bob, Andy, and Jim were removed
from the network, but more important-
ly, the section of the network that was
Understanding
structure and
function of the
network en-
ables the ability
to identify key
nodes through
applying SNA
and a variety of
network analysis
techniques.
ALSB 2016-1 8
The structure and
functions associ-
ated with networks
are codependent
in nature ...
responsible for finance has been sepa-
rated from the rest of the network and
fragmented into smaller cells. Frag-
menting a network may be desirable in
situations where a section of the net-
work is isolated for further targeting
actions and can have an effect on the
functionality of the network. In this ex-
ample, for the network to maintain or
return to a pretargeting capability lev-
el, it will be required to regenerate and
replace the functions provided by the
nodes that were removed. Due to the
complex adaptive nature of networks,
targeting that results in some type of
effect on the structure or function of
a network will not produce significant
long-term effects as long as conditions
within the OE support the sustainment
of that network.
	 The structure and functions as-
sociated with networks are codepen-
dent in nature, which also should be
understood to maximize planning and
engagement efforts. The structure of a
network exists in its current state to
support the facilitation of network ac-
tions or the function of that network.
Likewise, the desired or necessary func-
tions of a network are supported by the
overall structure of the network. These
network attributes are interrelated and
codependent. Engagement strategies
for networks focus on the structural
aspects of the network since the key
nodes within a network are identifi-
able using available network analysis
techniques. The complex and adaptive
nature of networks, coupled with an
ability to fully understand a network,
Figure 3. Network Prior to Targeting. (The authors developed this diagram using *ORA, a dynamic meta-network assessment and analysis tool
developed by Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems at Carnegie Mellon University. It contains hundreds of social net-
work, dynamic network, and trail metrics; procedures for grouping nodes; identifying local patterns; and comparing and contrasting networks,
groups, and individuals from a dynamic meta-network perspective.)
ALSB 2016-19
requires decisions on collection plan-
ning and engagement to be made with
the best information available at the
time. Engagement plans for a network,
regardless of the type of network being
engaged or the desired effect intended
for the network, target key nodes that
produce a first-order effect on the node
(direct impact on the structure), which
is intended to produce a second-order
effect on the network’s structure or
function.
	 Engaging networks to produce
desired effects on the structure and
function of the network is fundamen-
tal to current targeting methods. The
duration of the effects of operations on
networks depends on a number of vari-
ables, which includes the network’s
ability to adapt. However, this manner
of engagement effort will not eliminate
the existence of a network. The known
structure and function of a network are
often only the visible components that
network analysis helps us to identify.
Threat or illicit networks are motivated
to protect their network from attack
by hiding nodes, links (structure), and
function. These are often referred to as
dark networks.
IDENTIFYING CRITICAL VARI-
ABLES FOR NETWORKS
	 Critical variables are resources
or conditions that are present within
the OE that have a direct impact on the
commander’s objectives and may af-
fect the formation and sustainment of
networks.10
During the planning pro-
cess, the staff must focus on determin-
ing critical variables associated with
the commander’s operation.11
The rel-
evance of identifying critical variables
in relation to the commander’s mission
directly relates to gaining an under-
standing of conditions that will support
the commander’s desired end state.
However, networks exist within the en-
Figure 4. A Network After Targeting
During the plan-
ning process, the
staff must focus
on determining
critical variables
associated with
the commander’s
operation.
ALSB 2016-1 10
vironment (due to the conditions that
are available to them) which include a
catalyst, receptive audience, and ac-
commodating environment. Analysis
of the OE and output from analysis of
the network should be conducted con-
tinuously to identify the specific condi-
tions that exist to sustain the network.
These identifiable conditions are the
critical variables for the network.
	 A logic tree may be used to help
highlight a way to determine the criti-
cal variables for a network. Using the
outputs from evaluating the OE and
the network under analysis, the first
decision point is to identify the vari-
ables of the OE that comprise the cata-
lyst for the network.
	 The staff must determine if the
mission variable is a catalyst for a
network from current and future per-
spectives. The purpose of challenging
the staff to answer this question is to
identify any of the variables existing
within the OE associated with a cata-
lyst for the network, regardless of cur-
rent conditions. This effort also consid-
ers variables that potentially reinforce
the catalyst as the network adapts to
operations being conducted. Too often,
the analysis centers focus on current
operations. This “here and now” line of
effort presents potential risk by limit-
ing the focus of effort to a portion of the
conditions and often does not consider
monitoring and shaping the desired fu-
ture OE conditions.
	 The complex, adaptive nature of
networks and individuals tends toward
survival. Ensuring a relevant catalyst
exists for a network is fundamental for
the network to sustain itself within the
environment. For example, a unit suc-
cessfully identifies a variable within
the OE that is important in establish-
ing a catalyst for a network. Through
various lethal and nonlethal engage-
ments and operations, the commander
is successful in affecting this variable,
resulting in a weakening or undermin-
ing effect on the catalyst. The network
will, instinctively, seek an alternative
or substitute (associated with struc-
ture or function) to reinforce the cata-
lyst to continue existing. These substi-
tutes are now critical variables for the
network that will need to be leveraged
or acquired by the network to contin-
ue its existence. The ability to identify
potential substitutes as parts of the
The complex,
adaptive nature
of networks and
individuals tends
toward survival.
Figure 5. Critical Variable Logic Tree. This version of a logic tree considers the structure, functions, and conditions for network sustainment to
help identify critical variables.
ALSB 2016-111
initial analysis provides a potential
opportunity to limit the availability of
these substitutes as parallel efforts of
network engagement.
	 An example of a network seek-
ing substitutes is the way Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi’s network of jihadists in
Iraq did not affiliate themselves with
al-Qaeda until the fall of 2004. Prior to
this, Zarqawi built his network from a
combination of Iraqis and foreign fight-
ers who were motivated by the actions
of the network. At the time, Osama bin
Laden (al-Qaeda’s founder) sought to
“own” the jihad movement in Iraq. This
was not initially embraced by Zarqawi.
Critical resources were needed by Zar-
qawi to continue his jihad effort, which
had been constrained by coalition ef-
forts. His decision to associate with bin
Laden and al-Qaeda resulted in the
formation of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and
subsequent access to private donors
and recruitment, logistics, and facili-
tation networks.12
Although Zarqawi’s
beliefs differed from bin Laden, the
need to seek substitutes for limited re-
sources was a driving factor in the of-
ficial formation of AQI, which has now
morphed into as the Islamic State in
Iraq (ISIS).
	 Whether or not the mission vari-
able supports the conditions for a re-
ceptive audience should be applied
from the perspective of identifying
conditions that exist in support of the
current receptive audience and the de-
veloping potential audience members
within the OE. A network’s ability to
grow and regenerate structure, if loss-
es are sustained, relies upon its acces-
sibility to a receptive audience that can
be motivated and influenced to join.
Expansion of the receptive audience
for ISIS is associated with a number
of different conditions within the OE.
One particular condition is the percep-
tion of equality among various groups
in Iraq. Similar to what occurred dur-
ing the 2006 Anbar Awakening, groups
identified with a perceived grievance
within the OE that swayed them to be-
come members of the receptive audi-
ence, which coalition forces were able
to leverage. Now, some of the same
members of the population have been
swayed in the opposite direction, which
has resulted in an expanded receptive
audience for ISIS that has been mo-
tivated to join that network. ISIS has
successfully promoted its catalyst to
this audience by exploiting this per-
ception and currently possesses the
capability to leverage violent means to
further influence members of this au-
dience. Identifying and affecting this
variable has the potential to produce
long-term effects on the ISIS network,
but requires the synchronized applica-
tion of a host of available capabilities.
	 A network generates members
from the audience through some type
of influence and is supported by the
catalyst for the network. Understand-
ing and relating this to the receptive
audience will help support developing
and implementing the commander’s
engagement strategy for that network.
In addition to focusing an analysis on
identifying the conditions that support
the receptive audience, a staff should
consider the relationship of these
members to other networks. A subset
of mission variables contains the orga-
nizations that exist within the OE. As
part of comprehensive network analy-
sis, these organizations may appear
to be autonomous. By identifying the
critical variables that exist in an OE,
a commander may be able to identify
connections, or bridges, between these
network elements to engage specific
organizations or nodes that can influ-
ence the current receptive audience.
This shaping of the OE should include
specific, measurable activities or indi-
cators to monitor progress toward the
commander’s desired end state.
	 Analyzing critical variables from
the perspectives of current and poten-
tial conditions supports planning to
engage networks and affect the current
conditions for network sustainment
and provides the staff an opportunity to
consider including actions to facilitate
future conditions for network sustain-
A network’s
ability to grow
and regener-
ate structure ...
relies upon its
accessibility to a
receptive audi-
ence that can be
motivated and in-
fluenced to join.
ALSB 2016-1 12
ment. The decision on what must be
accomplished for the critical variables
related to the receptive audience is de-
termined based upon the commander’s
desired end state. Efforts should result
in planning that supports or opposes
the condition depending upon the de-
sired effect to support, influence, or
neutralize the selected network.
	 Without an accommodating en-
vironment, networks may exist, but
their ability to take actions in support
of achieving their goals will be limited.
The staff must understand planning
operations that are intended to limit
a network’s ability to take action by
identifying the critical variables that
comprise the accommodating environ-
ment for the network. Following the
logic tree in figure 3, the primary con-
cern to address to identify the critical
variables for the accommodating envi-
ronment is whether or not the mission
variable supports the accommodating
environment.
	 The initial analysis will focus
on the current OE conditions. Staffs
should study to understand conditions
that may emerge within the OE as net-
work engagement operations are con-
ducted.
	 For the staff, maintaining situ-
ational awareness of the OE is chal-
lenging and time consuming due to
the complexity that exists in any envi-
ronment. The OE constantly changes
and can be affected by many networks
or subnetwork elements. Some criti-
cal variables may require monitoring
and evaluation. For example, the staff
should determine if the current condi-
tion in the OE supports achieving the
commander’s desired end state. It is
common to focus efforts on conditions
that must be shaped to meet a desired
end state, since more effort will be re-
quired to affect those conditions. The
purpose of gaining a comprehensive
understanding of the OE is to ensure
all of the required conditions neces-
sary to attain an end state are identi-
fied and routinely monitored. A condi-
tion in the OE that is beneficial can be
negatively affected by US’ operations or
the actions of other networks. Identify-
ing the potential impacts of operations
on these conditions as part of the plan-
ning process or realizing a condition
of this nature is changing allows the
commander to make necessary adjust-
ments.
	 The potential exists for the criti-
cal variables to be evaluated for a level
of accommodation that could be in-
cluded as part of a formal assessment
of the engagement plan for the network.
Since eliminating the critical variable
is unlikely, the desired condition may
be to lower the accommodation level
to a degree that the network has diffi-
culty in taking action, which will result
in the need for the network to seek an
alternative. Potential for identifying al-
ternatives for the network to increase
the level of accommodation in the envi-
ronment exists. However, the analysis
must focus on identifying these critical
variables to consider them during the
planning process. The network will ex-
pend resources and accept some risk
to gain or sustain the necessary level
of accommodation.
	 Expanding analysis to gain an
understanding of the critical variables
for a network (as they relate to the sus-
tainment of the network) will tend to
result in engagement plans that pro-
duce lasting effects on networks. The
immediate need to engage networks
from structure and function perspec-
tives will still be necessary, but incor-
porating analysis on future conditions
for sustaining the network into plan-
ning and targeting efforts will result in
greater long-term effects from opera-
tions.
	 Like the critical variables iden-
tified to support operational assess-
ments, the critical variables for the
networks can be used in a similar fash-
ion. The staff should explore develop-
ing measures of effectiveness for these
critical variables and identifying indi-
cators that become part of the assess-
ment of operations. Since assessments
are resource intensive, the goal would
The OE constantly
changes and can
be affected by
many networks or
subnetwork ele-
ments.
ALSB 2016-113
be to maximize the efforts of the as-
sessment process by finding measures
that can be supported as part of rou-
tine collection efforts.
CONCLUSION
	 The key to successfully engag-
ing a network revolves around gain-
ing and maintaining a comprehen-
sive understanding of the conditions
within the OE. Also, it requires an
in-depth understanding of variables
that are critical to achieving a desired
end state. Accomplishing this goes be-
yond conducting routine analyses and
maintaining situational awareness. It
requires the staff to identify and relate
operations to the critical variables that
exist in the OE, which must be shaped
to meet the commander’s desired end
state and affected to a degree that miti-
gates a threat network’s ability to sur-
vive.
	 Although understanding the
structure and function of a network
directly supports current targeting
methodology, these methods alone will
never realize the optimal objectives
when engaging networks. Regardless
of the commander’s desired effect (sup-
port, influence, or neutralize) on any
network (friendly, neutral, or threat),
the primary conditions existing within
the OE that allow a network to form,
grow, and survive must be considered
as part of the planning and targeting
processes. The disadvantages an adap-
tive network possesses can only be
overcome by making network engage-
ment decisions based on an in-depth
understanding of the OE as it relates
to network goals, functions, behavior,
and sustainability.
The authors are current and former
military personnel with expertise in
network engagement methodology.
MAJ (Ret.) Sopko, SGM (Ret.) Osman,
and Maj Slater work as contract sup-
port to the Marine Corps Tactics and
Operations Group. Mr. Miles, LCDR
(Ret.) Worret, and COL (Ret.) Munch
work with the US Army’s Training
and Doctrine Command.
END NOTES
1
The views expressed in this article are the authors alone and
do not represent the Marine Corps Tactics and Operations
Group, the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, or the
US military.
2
Marine Corps Interim Publication (MCIP) 3-40.1, Network
Engagement, September 2014, 47-48.
3
Matthew Alan Hill, Democracy Promotion and Conflict-Based
Reconstruction (Routledge, 2011), 156.
4
Training and Doctrine Command’s Training Brain Operations
Center-Advanced Network Analysis and Targeting Train-
ing Course Material, ”When applying the concepts of social
network analysis (SNA), normally by using SNA software, each
group of two or more connected nodes is considered to be a
network. A meta-network is formed when all related networks
are merged into a single “master” network. Some analysts refer
to this as a “master merge”.
5
Chief Warrant Officer-4 Timothy S. McWilliams and Lieuten-
ant Colonel Kurtis P. Wheeler, Al-Anbar Awakening Volume I:
American Perspectives (Marine Corps University, 2009), 9-16.
Accessed on August 11, 2014, http://www.hqmc.marines.mil/
Portals/61/Docs/Al-AnbarAwakeningVolI[1].pdf
6
MCIP 3-40.1, 48.
7
Richard Spencer, “How US and Britain were warned of ISIS ad-
vance in Iraq but turned a deaf ear”, The Telegraph (June 2014),
Accessed August 11, 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/
worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10918607/How-US-and-Britain-
were-warned-of-Isis-advance-in-Iraq-but-turned-a-deaf-ear.html
8
MCIP 3-40.1, 56.
9
Ibid., 69.
10
Ibid., 41.
11
Joint Publication (JP) 5-0, Joint Operation Planning, 11 August
2011, III-12-15.
12
Aaron Y. Zelin, “The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for
Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement” (The Washington
Institute for Near East Policy 20, 2014), 2. Accessed on August
11, 2014, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Docu-
ments/pubs/ResearchNote_20_Zelin.pdf
... the primary
conditions exist-
ing within the
OE that allow a
network to form,
grow, and survive
must be consid-
ered as part of
the planning and
targeting pro-
cesses.

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ALSA Adaptive Networks Article_June 2016

  • 1. AIR LAND SEA BULLETIN Approved for public release; unlimited distribution. Issue No. 2016-2 Summer 2016Air Land Sea Application (ALSA) Center
  • 2. ALSB 2016-1 4 ... network analy- sis is conducted to provide the staff with deeper understanding of the structure and function of the network, which is used to engage and target other networks. CONSIDER ADAPTIVE NETWORKS TO FOSTER UNDER- STANDING RELATIONSHIPS IN COMPLEX OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTS By Bryan Sopko; Matt Osman; Maj Danica Slater, USMCR; Randy Munch; Chris Worrett; and David Miles. INTRODUCTION Analysis of the operational envi- ronment (OE) is necessary to support planning efforts, regardless of the type of operation being conducted.1 The staff must collect and analyze large amounts of information from a variety of sources to develop a comprehensive understanding of the OE to provide the commander situational awareness. Additionally, the staff must focus on key factors that are identified as criti- cal variables which relate directly to achieving the commander’s desired end state. Refined analysis of the OE, with a focus on human networks, sup- ports identifying critical variables that relate directly to a network’s ability to form, function, and sustain itself in the OE. The staff’s ability to gain a greater understanding of these critical vari- ables provides insight that supports developing engagement plans to affect selected networks. The staff must conduct an in- depth analysis of the selected network to understand its structure and func- tions. This provides insights and op- tions on ways to identify the network’s critical variables. Analysis of the OE is a part of intelligence preparation of the operational environment and is expanded by the staff during the plan- ning process. Simultaneously, net- work analysis is conducted to provide the staff with deeper understanding of the structure and function of the network, which is used to engage and target other networks. By deliberately expanding the analysis of the OE as it relates, specifically, to networks that the commander may desire to support, influence or neutralize, a staff may be able to determine the critical variables that exist within the OE that facilitate the network’s formation, growth, and sustainment. Including these critical variables as inputs to the targeting process, the potential exists to produce lasting effects on selected networks. NETWORK FORMATION AND SUSTAINMENT Networks are a series of direct and indirect ties from an actor to a collection of others (nodes) and are formed when the ties between two or more nodes develop from some type of common purpose. A catalyst, receptive audience, and accommodating envi- ronment, depicted in figure 1, are three fundamental conditions that must be fulfilled for network formation and sustainment within an OE.2 A catalyst for a network may be related to a single variable or multiple variables that represent conditions within the OE. Depending on the net- work, there may be a variable within the OE that is critical for supporting the initial formation of the network. For example, a critical variable that might be identified as a catalyst for Al-Qaeda is the ideology of the Sunni Muslim religion.3 Since the inception of Al-Qa- eda, other networks have formed and aligned with Al-Qaeda and have done so with variations on the basic ideol- ogy. To engage networks effectively, staffs must dedicate significant analyt- ical effort to understanding them, in- cluding the related catalysts and why the message or narrative resonates with the audience. A receptive audience that sup- ports the formation and sustainment of a network is directly associated with the catalyst for that network. Current and future members of the network have made, or will make, some type
  • 3. ALSB 2016-15 The potential for a network to exist within an environment is limitless, but the ability of members of the network to take action in support of the catalyst re- lies solely on the conditions within that environ- ment. Network Formation and Sustainment Conditions Catalyst: A variable within the operating environment that motivates or binds a group of individuals together to take some type of action to fulfil a collective need. Receptive Audience: A group of individuals that feel they have more to gain by engag- ing in activities of the network than by not participating. Accomodating Environment: Conditions within the operating environment that facili- tate the organization and actions of a network. of decision to join the network based on whether their individual needs may be met by an emerging network versus what is provided for them from current conditions within the OE. In essence, the conditions and catalyst for a net- work serve to influence and motivate a portion of the meta-network to func- tion as a receptive audience.4 A meta- network is a composition of a group of networks which are connected and interrelated by common nodes. The members of the receptive audience will, essentially, weigh the opportuni- ties and risks of joining the network and then decide to join the network. For example, in the spring of 2003 an insurgent network formed in the city of Fallujah, Iraq. Sunni Muslims and for- mer Ba’ath Party members identified themselves as being disenfranchised and marginalized with the defeat of the Iraqi regime. Members of this re- ceptive audience related to the cata- lyst for the insurgent group that would be later identified as Al-Qaeda of Iraq (AQI), and were motivated to join this network to fulfill their needs. Over time, the receptive audi- ence’s perception of AQI changed, due to a series of AQI atrocities against the population. In the fall of 2006, Unit- ed States (US) forces recognized this change and supported an alternative catalyst for members of this recep- tive audience, resulting in the forma- tion of a series of local defense forces which were sanctioned and often sup- ported by tribal elders. These networks of forces were able to slowly recapture the Al-Anbar province of Iraq from AQI, which is commonly referred to as the “Al-Anbar Awakening”.5 An accommodating environ- ment exists when conditions within the OE facilitate the actions of a network.6 The potential for a network to exist within an environment is limitless, but the ability of members of the network to take action in support of the catalyst relies solely on the conditions within that environment. There are variables associated with identifying the level of accommodation that can be identified, measured and affected. Eliminating the conditions related to variables that support an accommodating environ- ment is unlikely. The complexity that exists within an environment, com- prised of a multitude of inter-related networks, is a composite of numerous variables. Vast resources are required to adequately alter OE conditions that impact the level of accommodation. Examination of the recent actions of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) within Iraq demonstrates the environ- ment was less accommodating to ISIS influence when coalition forces were present.7 As coalition forces departed Iraq, Iraqi forces did not possess the same capabilities and; thus, provided ISIS members with an accommodating environment for them to take action in support of their goals. Removing or altering certain conditions will require the network to adapt to ensure survival. The actions networks take to adapt may pose ad- ditional risk; and, if understood, could provide opportunity for further en- gagement of the network. A compre- hensive understanding of the OE and Figure 1. Network Formation and Sustainment Conditions
  • 4. ALSB 2016-1 6 Network Structure and Function Considerations Structure Nodes • Function with network • Links to other nodes • Level of influence within the network • Pattern of life Composition • Nodes: People, Places, Things • Resources: Money, Equip- ment, etc. Links • Type: Family, Societal, Cul tural, etc. • Strength: Strong/Weak • Internal Between nodes • External Association to other net- works Function Capability • Adaptability • regeneration • Recruitment • Resource • Train • Conduct operations • Communication Intent • Catalyst for formation • Objectives • Ideological goals • Likely COAs/TTPs Influence • On other networks • By other networks Figure 2. Network Structure and Function Considerations (from Marine Corps Interim Publication 3–40.1, 74) ... consideration of any network’s structure and function is nec- essary as part of the planning process. a detailed analysis of the networks are required to identify the conditions that support the network’s formation and sustainment. Accomplishing these re- quires gaining an understanding of the conditions within the OE that must be attained through refined analysis of the mission variables and an in-depth network analysis. Identifying and un- derstanding these conditions will pro- vide key information to support devel- opment of an engagement plan for any type of network that a commander may desire to support, influence, or neu- tralize. NETWORK STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION Understanding a network re- quires identifying characteristics that define the network’s structure and function. Network structure is the or- ganization and relationship between the nodes of a network, whereas the network’s function is identified as ac- tivities or purposes of the network or one of its components. Regardless of the type of capability being employed to effect a network, consideration of any network’s structure and function is necessary as part of the planning process. Network analysis is conducted using various techniques and can pro- vide the commander with a variety of information.8 The information should be organized in a manner that facili- tates understanding of how the net- work is structured and how it func- tions to support achieving goals as is demonstrated in figure 2.
  • 5. ALSB 2016-17 Common network analysis tech- niques (such as network mapping, link analysis and social network analysis (SNA)) provide data that help a user define the network structure and func- tion. Analysts apply multiple network analysis techniques that result in layered products for use by the com- mander and staff. These products are not static, but are continuously updat- ed (as new information is collected and analyzed) to provide timely and accu- rate situational understanding in sup- port of planning and targeting. Situational understanding is the product of applying analysis and judg- ment to relevant information to deter- mine the relationships among the opera- tional and mission variables to facilitate decision-making. Building and main- taining situational understanding is es- sential for establishing the situation’s context, developing effective plans, as- sessing operations, and making qual- ity decisions throughout the operations process. Army Doctrinal Publication 5-0, The Operations Process, 17 May 2012, Page 5 The characteristics associated with the structure and function of a network are focal points for additional exploration by US forces in support of engagement planning and targeting. Understanding structure and func- tion of the network enables the abil- ity to identify key nodes through ap- plying SNA and a variety of network analysis techniques. It is important to understand a network’s functions as they relate to critical OE variables. For example, a critical OE variable might be that an illegal drug network is gen- erating so much illicit economic activ- ity it is interfering with a host nation’s ability to further develop licit economic activity. A commander providing secu- rity force assistance to the host nation might determine the desired end state will include neutralizing the drug net- work to enable licit economic growth. To achieve this, it would be essential to significantly decrease the function- ality of the drug network. To maximize network neutralization, analysts would need to understand critical network functions and key nodes related to those functions. Key nodes are those that possess certain characteristics by virtue of their position and intercon- nectivity with other nodes. These char- acteristics make key nodes targets for achieving desired effects when they are engaged in specific ways. A common practice in target- ing networks is to identify the network nodes that are high in “betweenness centrality.” Betweenness centrality is determined when a node serves as a connection between small clusters (cliques or cells) or individual nodes and the larger network.9 In the ex- ample of the network prior to target- ing (figure 3), the node Bob, possesses the highest betweeness centrality. Al- though SNA techniques are used to identify this characteristic, SNA is not applied independently. SNA is used, optimally, with other network analy- sis techniques. For this example, the analyst has determined that targeting Bob, Andy, and Jim would provide the commander with the greatest ability to achieve the desired end-state, which is to maximize network fragmentation. These nodes are highest in between- ness centrality and, in essence, hold the network together by virtue of their positions and relationships. NETWORK AFTER TARGETING To ensure SNA is conducted on a current understanding of the net- work, the SNA analyst should incor- porate as much data as possible and consult with analysts from as many in- telligence disciplines as are available. Once the commander decides to tar- get key nodes within the network, as a part of the continuous implementation of the collection plan, analysts possess the ability to update the understand- ing of the structure and function of the targeted network by producing updat- ed network analysis products. In figure 4, Bob, Andy, and Jim were removed from the network, but more important- ly, the section of the network that was Understanding structure and function of the network en- ables the ability to identify key nodes through applying SNA and a variety of network analysis techniques.
  • 6. ALSB 2016-1 8 The structure and functions associ- ated with networks are codependent in nature ... responsible for finance has been sepa- rated from the rest of the network and fragmented into smaller cells. Frag- menting a network may be desirable in situations where a section of the net- work is isolated for further targeting actions and can have an effect on the functionality of the network. In this ex- ample, for the network to maintain or return to a pretargeting capability lev- el, it will be required to regenerate and replace the functions provided by the nodes that were removed. Due to the complex adaptive nature of networks, targeting that results in some type of effect on the structure or function of a network will not produce significant long-term effects as long as conditions within the OE support the sustainment of that network. The structure and functions as- sociated with networks are codepen- dent in nature, which also should be understood to maximize planning and engagement efforts. The structure of a network exists in its current state to support the facilitation of network ac- tions or the function of that network. Likewise, the desired or necessary func- tions of a network are supported by the overall structure of the network. These network attributes are interrelated and codependent. Engagement strategies for networks focus on the structural aspects of the network since the key nodes within a network are identifi- able using available network analysis techniques. The complex and adaptive nature of networks, coupled with an ability to fully understand a network, Figure 3. Network Prior to Targeting. (The authors developed this diagram using *ORA, a dynamic meta-network assessment and analysis tool developed by Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems at Carnegie Mellon University. It contains hundreds of social net- work, dynamic network, and trail metrics; procedures for grouping nodes; identifying local patterns; and comparing and contrasting networks, groups, and individuals from a dynamic meta-network perspective.)
  • 7. ALSB 2016-19 requires decisions on collection plan- ning and engagement to be made with the best information available at the time. Engagement plans for a network, regardless of the type of network being engaged or the desired effect intended for the network, target key nodes that produce a first-order effect on the node (direct impact on the structure), which is intended to produce a second-order effect on the network’s structure or function. Engaging networks to produce desired effects on the structure and function of the network is fundamen- tal to current targeting methods. The duration of the effects of operations on networks depends on a number of vari- ables, which includes the network’s ability to adapt. However, this manner of engagement effort will not eliminate the existence of a network. The known structure and function of a network are often only the visible components that network analysis helps us to identify. Threat or illicit networks are motivated to protect their network from attack by hiding nodes, links (structure), and function. These are often referred to as dark networks. IDENTIFYING CRITICAL VARI- ABLES FOR NETWORKS Critical variables are resources or conditions that are present within the OE that have a direct impact on the commander’s objectives and may af- fect the formation and sustainment of networks.10 During the planning pro- cess, the staff must focus on determin- ing critical variables associated with the commander’s operation.11 The rel- evance of identifying critical variables in relation to the commander’s mission directly relates to gaining an under- standing of conditions that will support the commander’s desired end state. However, networks exist within the en- Figure 4. A Network After Targeting During the plan- ning process, the staff must focus on determining critical variables associated with the commander’s operation.
  • 8. ALSB 2016-1 10 vironment (due to the conditions that are available to them) which include a catalyst, receptive audience, and ac- commodating environment. Analysis of the OE and output from analysis of the network should be conducted con- tinuously to identify the specific condi- tions that exist to sustain the network. These identifiable conditions are the critical variables for the network. A logic tree may be used to help highlight a way to determine the criti- cal variables for a network. Using the outputs from evaluating the OE and the network under analysis, the first decision point is to identify the vari- ables of the OE that comprise the cata- lyst for the network. The staff must determine if the mission variable is a catalyst for a network from current and future per- spectives. The purpose of challenging the staff to answer this question is to identify any of the variables existing within the OE associated with a cata- lyst for the network, regardless of cur- rent conditions. This effort also consid- ers variables that potentially reinforce the catalyst as the network adapts to operations being conducted. Too often, the analysis centers focus on current operations. This “here and now” line of effort presents potential risk by limit- ing the focus of effort to a portion of the conditions and often does not consider monitoring and shaping the desired fu- ture OE conditions. The complex, adaptive nature of networks and individuals tends toward survival. Ensuring a relevant catalyst exists for a network is fundamental for the network to sustain itself within the environment. For example, a unit suc- cessfully identifies a variable within the OE that is important in establish- ing a catalyst for a network. Through various lethal and nonlethal engage- ments and operations, the commander is successful in affecting this variable, resulting in a weakening or undermin- ing effect on the catalyst. The network will, instinctively, seek an alternative or substitute (associated with struc- ture or function) to reinforce the cata- lyst to continue existing. These substi- tutes are now critical variables for the network that will need to be leveraged or acquired by the network to contin- ue its existence. The ability to identify potential substitutes as parts of the The complex, adaptive nature of networks and individuals tends toward survival. Figure 5. Critical Variable Logic Tree. This version of a logic tree considers the structure, functions, and conditions for network sustainment to help identify critical variables.
  • 9. ALSB 2016-111 initial analysis provides a potential opportunity to limit the availability of these substitutes as parallel efforts of network engagement. An example of a network seek- ing substitutes is the way Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s network of jihadists in Iraq did not affiliate themselves with al-Qaeda until the fall of 2004. Prior to this, Zarqawi built his network from a combination of Iraqis and foreign fight- ers who were motivated by the actions of the network. At the time, Osama bin Laden (al-Qaeda’s founder) sought to “own” the jihad movement in Iraq. This was not initially embraced by Zarqawi. Critical resources were needed by Zar- qawi to continue his jihad effort, which had been constrained by coalition ef- forts. His decision to associate with bin Laden and al-Qaeda resulted in the formation of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and subsequent access to private donors and recruitment, logistics, and facili- tation networks.12 Although Zarqawi’s beliefs differed from bin Laden, the need to seek substitutes for limited re- sources was a driving factor in the of- ficial formation of AQI, which has now morphed into as the Islamic State in Iraq (ISIS). Whether or not the mission vari- able supports the conditions for a re- ceptive audience should be applied from the perspective of identifying conditions that exist in support of the current receptive audience and the de- veloping potential audience members within the OE. A network’s ability to grow and regenerate structure, if loss- es are sustained, relies upon its acces- sibility to a receptive audience that can be motivated and influenced to join. Expansion of the receptive audience for ISIS is associated with a number of different conditions within the OE. One particular condition is the percep- tion of equality among various groups in Iraq. Similar to what occurred dur- ing the 2006 Anbar Awakening, groups identified with a perceived grievance within the OE that swayed them to be- come members of the receptive audi- ence, which coalition forces were able to leverage. Now, some of the same members of the population have been swayed in the opposite direction, which has resulted in an expanded receptive audience for ISIS that has been mo- tivated to join that network. ISIS has successfully promoted its catalyst to this audience by exploiting this per- ception and currently possesses the capability to leverage violent means to further influence members of this au- dience. Identifying and affecting this variable has the potential to produce long-term effects on the ISIS network, but requires the synchronized applica- tion of a host of available capabilities. A network generates members from the audience through some type of influence and is supported by the catalyst for the network. Understand- ing and relating this to the receptive audience will help support developing and implementing the commander’s engagement strategy for that network. In addition to focusing an analysis on identifying the conditions that support the receptive audience, a staff should consider the relationship of these members to other networks. A subset of mission variables contains the orga- nizations that exist within the OE. As part of comprehensive network analy- sis, these organizations may appear to be autonomous. By identifying the critical variables that exist in an OE, a commander may be able to identify connections, or bridges, between these network elements to engage specific organizations or nodes that can influ- ence the current receptive audience. This shaping of the OE should include specific, measurable activities or indi- cators to monitor progress toward the commander’s desired end state. Analyzing critical variables from the perspectives of current and poten- tial conditions supports planning to engage networks and affect the current conditions for network sustainment and provides the staff an opportunity to consider including actions to facilitate future conditions for network sustain- A network’s ability to grow and regener- ate structure ... relies upon its accessibility to a receptive audi- ence that can be motivated and in- fluenced to join.
  • 10. ALSB 2016-1 12 ment. The decision on what must be accomplished for the critical variables related to the receptive audience is de- termined based upon the commander’s desired end state. Efforts should result in planning that supports or opposes the condition depending upon the de- sired effect to support, influence, or neutralize the selected network. Without an accommodating en- vironment, networks may exist, but their ability to take actions in support of achieving their goals will be limited. The staff must understand planning operations that are intended to limit a network’s ability to take action by identifying the critical variables that comprise the accommodating environ- ment for the network. Following the logic tree in figure 3, the primary con- cern to address to identify the critical variables for the accommodating envi- ronment is whether or not the mission variable supports the accommodating environment. The initial analysis will focus on the current OE conditions. Staffs should study to understand conditions that may emerge within the OE as net- work engagement operations are con- ducted. For the staff, maintaining situ- ational awareness of the OE is chal- lenging and time consuming due to the complexity that exists in any envi- ronment. The OE constantly changes and can be affected by many networks or subnetwork elements. Some criti- cal variables may require monitoring and evaluation. For example, the staff should determine if the current condi- tion in the OE supports achieving the commander’s desired end state. It is common to focus efforts on conditions that must be shaped to meet a desired end state, since more effort will be re- quired to affect those conditions. The purpose of gaining a comprehensive understanding of the OE is to ensure all of the required conditions neces- sary to attain an end state are identi- fied and routinely monitored. A condi- tion in the OE that is beneficial can be negatively affected by US’ operations or the actions of other networks. Identify- ing the potential impacts of operations on these conditions as part of the plan- ning process or realizing a condition of this nature is changing allows the commander to make necessary adjust- ments. The potential exists for the criti- cal variables to be evaluated for a level of accommodation that could be in- cluded as part of a formal assessment of the engagement plan for the network. Since eliminating the critical variable is unlikely, the desired condition may be to lower the accommodation level to a degree that the network has diffi- culty in taking action, which will result in the need for the network to seek an alternative. Potential for identifying al- ternatives for the network to increase the level of accommodation in the envi- ronment exists. However, the analysis must focus on identifying these critical variables to consider them during the planning process. The network will ex- pend resources and accept some risk to gain or sustain the necessary level of accommodation. Expanding analysis to gain an understanding of the critical variables for a network (as they relate to the sus- tainment of the network) will tend to result in engagement plans that pro- duce lasting effects on networks. The immediate need to engage networks from structure and function perspec- tives will still be necessary, but incor- porating analysis on future conditions for sustaining the network into plan- ning and targeting efforts will result in greater long-term effects from opera- tions. Like the critical variables iden- tified to support operational assess- ments, the critical variables for the networks can be used in a similar fash- ion. The staff should explore develop- ing measures of effectiveness for these critical variables and identifying indi- cators that become part of the assess- ment of operations. Since assessments are resource intensive, the goal would The OE constantly changes and can be affected by many networks or subnetwork ele- ments.
  • 11. ALSB 2016-113 be to maximize the efforts of the as- sessment process by finding measures that can be supported as part of rou- tine collection efforts. CONCLUSION The key to successfully engag- ing a network revolves around gain- ing and maintaining a comprehen- sive understanding of the conditions within the OE. Also, it requires an in-depth understanding of variables that are critical to achieving a desired end state. Accomplishing this goes be- yond conducting routine analyses and maintaining situational awareness. It requires the staff to identify and relate operations to the critical variables that exist in the OE, which must be shaped to meet the commander’s desired end state and affected to a degree that miti- gates a threat network’s ability to sur- vive. Although understanding the structure and function of a network directly supports current targeting methodology, these methods alone will never realize the optimal objectives when engaging networks. Regardless of the commander’s desired effect (sup- port, influence, or neutralize) on any network (friendly, neutral, or threat), the primary conditions existing within the OE that allow a network to form, grow, and survive must be considered as part of the planning and targeting processes. The disadvantages an adap- tive network possesses can only be overcome by making network engage- ment decisions based on an in-depth understanding of the OE as it relates to network goals, functions, behavior, and sustainability. The authors are current and former military personnel with expertise in network engagement methodology. MAJ (Ret.) Sopko, SGM (Ret.) Osman, and Maj Slater work as contract sup- port to the Marine Corps Tactics and Operations Group. Mr. Miles, LCDR (Ret.) Worret, and COL (Ret.) Munch work with the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command. END NOTES 1 The views expressed in this article are the authors alone and do not represent the Marine Corps Tactics and Operations Group, the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, or the US military. 2 Marine Corps Interim Publication (MCIP) 3-40.1, Network Engagement, September 2014, 47-48. 3 Matthew Alan Hill, Democracy Promotion and Conflict-Based Reconstruction (Routledge, 2011), 156. 4 Training and Doctrine Command’s Training Brain Operations Center-Advanced Network Analysis and Targeting Train- ing Course Material, ”When applying the concepts of social network analysis (SNA), normally by using SNA software, each group of two or more connected nodes is considered to be a network. A meta-network is formed when all related networks are merged into a single “master” network. Some analysts refer to this as a “master merge”. 5 Chief Warrant Officer-4 Timothy S. McWilliams and Lieuten- ant Colonel Kurtis P. Wheeler, Al-Anbar Awakening Volume I: American Perspectives (Marine Corps University, 2009), 9-16. Accessed on August 11, 2014, http://www.hqmc.marines.mil/ Portals/61/Docs/Al-AnbarAwakeningVolI[1].pdf 6 MCIP 3-40.1, 48. 7 Richard Spencer, “How US and Britain were warned of ISIS ad- vance in Iraq but turned a deaf ear”, The Telegraph (June 2014), Accessed August 11, 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10918607/How-US-and-Britain- were-warned-of-Isis-advance-in-Iraq-but-turned-a-deaf-ear.html 8 MCIP 3-40.1, 56. 9 Ibid., 69. 10 Ibid., 41. 11 Joint Publication (JP) 5-0, Joint Operation Planning, 11 August 2011, III-12-15. 12 Aaron Y. Zelin, “The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement” (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 20, 2014), 2. Accessed on August 11, 2014, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Docu- ments/pubs/ResearchNote_20_Zelin.pdf ... the primary conditions exist- ing within the OE that allow a network to form, grow, and survive must be consid- ered as part of the planning and targeting pro- cesses.