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CALIBER summit series
Welcome Caliber Clients & Guests!
Your brainOn real estate
2
Introducing Jennifer Schrader:
• Co-Founder & Chief Operating Officer of Caliber
Companies.
• Sets investment strategy for incoming properties in
concert with the Company’s Executive Committee.
• Oversees Caliber’s portfolio of single family homes,
apartments, office buildings and hotels.
• Designs property renovations including the recent
$8.5M renovation of the Crowne Plaza Phoenix Airport
Hotel.
• Has spent her entire career as a real estate
entrepreneur after several years of architecture &
design school.
Jennifer Schrader
COO / Co-Founder
3
Introducing Chris Loeffler:
• Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Caliber
• Focused on strategy, growth, investment structures, and real
estate assets
• Fund manager for Caliber’s private investment funds.
• Prior to serving as the Company’s CEO, Chris utilized knowledge
and skillsets acquired as an auditor for PWC.
• Has grown Caliber over a six-year period to manage over $265M
in assets with average year over year growth of nearly 100% per
year.
• Dedicated to you, Caliber’s community of clients, team members,
and supporters
Chris Loeffler
CEO / Co-Founder
4
Introducing Tom Bade:
•Career began in the real estate industry in 1978, primarily in the
development of both office and retail projects but also in the
areas of multi-family apartments, industrial and mini storages.
•Prior to joining Caliber, Tom was a Senior Vice President at
National Bank of Arizona where he worked in the Wealth
Management Group and was also a registered investment
advisor.
•Tom is active in the Phoenix community and has served as a
director of valley charitable and cultural organizations including
Faith House, A New Leaf, West Valley Child Crisis Center,
Northwest Valley YMCA, and the Arizona Leadership Caucus.
Tom Bade
VP of Client Relations
This presentation includes statements concerning the Company's expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, assumptions of future events, future financial
performance, or growth and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, readers and the audience can identify these forward-looking statements through the use of words or phrases such as "estimate," "expect,"
"anticipate," "intend," "plan," "project," "believe," "forecast," "should," "could," and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause
actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The Company's expectations, beliefs, and projections are expressed in good
faith and are believed by the Company to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs, or projections will result or be achieved or
accomplished. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the
Company’s ability to successfully operate and manage its business, including, among others, title disputes, weather conditions, shortages, delays, or unavailability of equipment and
services required in real estate development, property management, brokerage and investment and fund operations, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and
compliance with environmental laws and regulations; changes in costs of operations; loss of markets; volatility of real estate prices; imprecision of property valuations;
environmental risks; fluctuations in weather patterns; competition; inability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources; general economic conditions; litigation;
changes in regulation and legislation; economic disruptions or uninsured losses resulting from major accidents, fires, severe weather, natural disasters, terrorist activities, acts of
war, cyber attacks, or pest infestation; increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors.
Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the
date on which such statement is made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or
circumstances occurring after the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
In addition to financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), this presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures.
The Company believes that such non-GAAP financial measures are useful because they provide an alternative method for assessing the Company’s operating results in a manner
that is focused on the performance of the Company’s ongoing operations, for measuring the Company’s cash flow and liquidity, and for comparing the Company’s financial
performance to other companies. The Company’s management uses these non-GAAP financial measures for the same purpose, and for planning and forecasting purposes. The
presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not meant to be a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
This is not an offering of securities. Any such offer must be accompanied by an Offering document. Readers are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Offering documents.
DISCLAIMER
600+ $265+
350+ $350m
EMPLOYEES AUM
INVESTORS ACQUISITIONS
A LOOK AT
CALIBER today
Single family, apartments, office, hospitality, self-
storage
Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Utah, Alaska
& Colorado
Full control of the investment cycle
Four private equity funds
INC. 500 – Number 404, Fastest Growing
Private Companies in United States
recent awards
Inc. 500 Recipient ACE Awards
Recipient
IMPACT Awards
Large Business,
Economic Driver
Better Business
Bureau Torch Awards
for Ethics Finalist
Inc. 5000 Recipient
Think Realty
Commercial Investor
of the Year Recipient
Most Influential
Women in Arizona
Recipient
Ernst & Young
Entrepreneur of the
Year Nominee
Sterling Awards
Recipient
Crowne Plaza
Design Award
How to THINK
& Invest Like a
Professional
1
Create a Process
that Leads to
Greater Profits
with Less Risk
2
Ways to Utilize
Your Strengths &
Recognize Your
Weaknesses
3
How to Develop
Your Own Real
Estate Portfolio &
Align it with Your
Goals
4
Today’s AgendaFor One Hour of Your Time
PARTS OF
THE HUMAN
BRAIN
Frontal Lobe
Temporal Lobe
Spinal Cord
Cerebellum
Occipital Lobe
Parietal Lobe
Mountain presentation by ContestDesign
RATIONALITY
Investors are not
always rational.
EMOTIONS
Emotions can influence our
decision making –
Especially when uncertain.
SOCIAL BIASES
Social amplification
of biases and
influence of positive
feedback – upset
equilibrium.
CONTRARIAN
Applying behavioral
perspective goes
beyond just being a
contrarian.
Why is Behavioral Awareness
an importantinvestment tool?
MARKET EFFICIENCY
Inconsistent information &
dependence on intermediaries.
01
03
02
04
05
06
07
INABILITY TO GO SHORT
Can’t bet the other way.
PRICE DISCOVERY
No transparency or central exchange
means sellers know more than
buyers.
ILLIQUIDITY
Can’t just sell today and each
property is unique.
HIGH TRANSACTION COSTS
Expenses vary…from access costs to
commission’s & loans.
INVESTOR PERCEPTION
Misunderstood asset class. From
terminology, to how one derives value, aka
“income vs growth”.
EMOTIONAL PULL
More figuratively, since it is an asset you
can touch, you have a greater emotional
attachment to it. YOU OWN IT, therefore
it’s worth more.
Why is REAL ESTATE such a
ripe area for Behavioral Biases?
How Emotions Can lead You ASTRAY
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria
Point of Maximum
Financial Risk
Point of Maximum
Financial Risk
Anxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
Depression
Hope
Relief
Optimism
“How could I have been
so wrong?”
“Temporary set back –
I’m a long-term investor.”
“Wow,
am I smart.”
“Of all the ways of defining
man, the worst is the one
which makes him out to be a
rational animal.”
- Anatole France
THE FRAMING BIAS
What is framing? How does framing affect real estate investing?
THE ANCHORING BIAS
What is anchoring? How does apply to real estate?
LOSS AVERSION
What is loss aversion? How does loss aversion apply to
real estate?
HOME BIAS
What is home bias? How does home bias apply to real
estate?
THE HERDING BIAS
What is herding? How does herding apply to real estate?
THE FRAMING BIAS
AND REAL ESTATE
SECTOR
Apartment, Office, Retail, Industrial,
Hospitality, Self-Storage.
STYLE
Core, Core +, Opportunistic, Value Add.
GEOGRAPHIC
New York Office, Bay Area Multi-Family,
Phoenix Industrial.
“The implication is that these are all relatively
homogeneous and have similar risk return
characteristics”……”and that “Prime”
properties are less volatile.
A way of defining assets along
sector, style, and geographic
lines, which in turn have shaped
investor thinking and
expectations about what the
labels mean.
WHAT IS
“FRAMING BIAS”?
“
Property Comparison
Multi Family
VS
THE PalmsApartments
Class C
Cost per Door: $38,000
Cap Rate: 10.48%
Exit Strategy: Multiple
Mark TaylorApartments
Class A
Cost per Door: $170,000
Cap Rate: 3.5%
Exit Strategy: Limited
What investors shoulddo?
Which is the dominant and least
volatile source of real estate returns.
Place Particular Emphasis on the Level &
Sustainability of an Asset’s RENTAL INCOME.
Go beyond standard industry labels. Geography, sector, lease length, tenant risk,
refurbishment potential, building age, general state of the market….
WHICH OF THESE PREDICTED OUTPERFORMANCE.
Give Greater Consideration to the Underlying
Drivers of Real Estate Performance
Based upon different asset classes and different types
of assets within the classes; tenant risk, lease quality &
geography.
Diversify a Portfolio
“We Always overestimate the
change that will occur in the next
two years, and underestimate
the change that will take place in
the next ten.”
- BILL GATES
THE ANCHORING BIAS
AND REAL ESTATE
APPRAISALS & BPO’S
Comps based on past pricing and similar assets.
PROPERTY OWNERS
& PROSPECTIVE SELLERS
ANCHOR valuations based on the PRICE THEY
PAID or ANY VALUATION ABOVE THAT PRICE.
BROKERS
ANCHOR valuations based on ASKING PRICES.
PROSPECTIVE BUYERS
ANCHOR current valuations to PAST TRANSACTIONS.
Real estate investors “anchor” to
a range of measures with low
predictive value - these include
economic growth rates,
weightings, market turnover and
pricing.
WHAT IS
“ANCHORING BIAS”?
“
VSThe Hamptoninn & suites
Limited Service
Cost per Key: $104,000
Cap Rate: 13.4%
Renovations: $100,000
Loan: $7,000,000
Equity In: $4,500,000
Property Comparison
Hospitality
Four pointsby Sheraton
Full Service
Cost per Key: $100,000
Cap Rate: 5%
Renovations: $500k Brand Required PIP
Loan: $12,000,000
Equity In: $6,000,000
What investors should do?
Champion strategies that are centered around
analysis and maximization of income return.
Focus on Factors which Drive Income
Over Capital Gains
The lower the initial yield the greater the
market risk.
In Terms of Asset Valuation, Place Greater
Emphasis on Yield than Absolute Price
Focus on geographic markets that
emphasize income driven returns.
(AZ vs CA)
For Investors Concerned with Capital
Preservation
Look at what you actually have now and look
ahead.
Do Not Be Afraid to Take a Loss & Don’t
Focus on the Past to Evaluate the Future
THE LOSS AVERSION
AND REAL ESTATE
MARKET CORRECTION
Occurs in 3 phases:
Phase 1 – Most hold
Phase 2 – Some hold but some sell
Phase 3 – All sell, WHEN THEY SHOULD BE BUYING
WHEN TO SELL
When assets fundamentals are no longer attractive
SELLING VS STRATEGY CHANGE OF
AN ASSET
“Develop your way out”
Experiments show people care
more about LOSING A DOLLAR
THAN GAINING A DOLLAR.
Reaction is an innate system 1
response designed to assure our
survival.
WHAT IS
“LOSS AVERSION”?
“
03
27
UPTOWN SQUAREApartments
Cost per Door: $69,000
Cap Rate: 8%
Renovations: $1,200,000
Exit Strategy: Under Contract for $3.2M
Property Comparison
Multi Family
Gc squareApartments
Student Housing – Class C to Class A
Cost per Door: $75,000
Cap Rate: 6%
Renovations: $6,000,000
Exit Strategy: Multiple
Class C to Class A
What investors shoulddo?
With a disciplined buy, and multiple exit
strategies, OR choose a real estate
portfolio manager that does so.
Apply a Consistent Investment Process
As if you didn’t own them….would you buy them again
or are other investments more attractive?
Regularly Review Investments from First Principles
Don’t hold poor investments just to avoid a loss. If
the reason you bought it has changed, and the
fundamentals of the asset are no longer attractive,
THEN SELL.
Run the Winners, NOT the Losers
THE HOME BIAS
AND REAL ESTATE
DIFFERENT RISKS FOR LOCATIONS
Different Cities, States & Countries Have
Different Risks & Benefits Associated with
Each – Property Taxes, Zoning, Local
attitudes.
READILY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
When we make decisions, we choose most
readily available information: Zillow, Redfin
& Loopnet vs Costar, Yardi & the value of
your network & experience.
ASSET CLASSES QUOTED DIFFERENTLY
RevPar, cash on cash, IRR, price per unit, price per
key, cap rate, ROI
KNOW YOUR LENDERS
“The difference between a good deal and
a great deal”
Investing in WHAT IS FAMILIAR
and AVOIDING THAT WHICH IS
FOREIGN.
WHAT IS
“HOME BIAS”?
“
assets by Category
CURRENT CALIBER ACQUISITIONS
27%
53%
3%
3%
1%
11%
2%
Multi-Family
GC Square, Treehouse, Palms/4Rent Weekly, South Mountain Square,
Mountain View Square, and Uptown Square Apartments.
Hospitality
Crowne Plaza, Hampton Inn & Suites, Hilton Phoenix Airport, Holiday
Inn, Salmon Falls, Edgewater Inn, Four Points by Sheraton, and more.
Retail
Eight retail buildings located near the light rail in Downtown Mesa.
Land
Mixed Use Development such as Saddleback Ranch in Wickenburg,
AZ and Villages at Johnstown in Colorado.
Self Storage
Various Self-Storage facilities located throughout Utah, Arizona, and
Nevada.
Office
Fiesta Tech Center and Baywood Square Professional Park
Single Family & Net Zero Residential
Existing SFR and ground up, net zero energy developments, including
the Roosevelt and Eclipse projects.
• Focus on markets with population growth and income improvement
• Main Geographic Focus is the greater Southwest – Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Nevada, Utah and
Alaska
• Invest in markets that have business and growth friendly state and local governments
• Avoid direct competition in over-regulated and saturated markets
STRATEGY
CALIBER
INVESTMENTMARKETSASSETS ARE CURRENTLY DIVERSIFIED ACROSS 6 STATES
What investors shoulddo?
Broad geographic diversification can produce
better risk-adjusted returns.
First, Ensure that Portfolios are
Diversified Across Geographies
Given that Income forms the bulk of Total Returns, and is less volatile than
Capital Appreciation, one must ensure the sustainability of cash flows.
Asset specific analysis is essential.
Diversify Income Streams, the Attractiveness of Which
Depends on Geography
Bubbles can form in any market as a result of
behavioral biases.
Look for Assets in Various Cities,
States & Countries
THE HERDING BIAS
AND REAL ESTATE
“The Five Most Dangerous
Words in Business
are…..EVERYBODY ELSE IS
DOING IT.”
- WARREN BUFFET
UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Investors believe there is value in following the
decision-making of other market participants,
(first movers, experts or insiders who are
perceived to have more information).
SOCIAL PROOF TO BLAME
People follow the actions of others in an
attempt to reflect the “correct behavior” for a
given situation. The urge to conform.
DANGEROUS IN REAL ESTATE
In combination with individual cognitive errors,
market’s behavioral biases exert greater
influence on real estate prices than the
fundamentals. Ex: 2008 Housing Market.
When Investors STOP THINKING
INDEPENDENTLY and START
BLINDLY FOLLOWING THE
CONSENSUS.
WHAT IS
“HERDING BIAS”?
“
Prices of Housing& Commercial real estate, Dec. 2000= 1
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
CRE
Housing
jun2006
jun2007
DEC2007
jun2008
DEC2008
jun2009
DEC2005
jun2005
DEC2004
jun2004
DEC2003
jun2003
DEC2002
Jun2002
DEC2001
JUN2001
DEC2000
What investors shoulddo?
Acknowledge you will be vulnerable to your emotions.
Resist the Urge to Act
Impulsively in a Downturn
Recognize markets tend to over & under react. Be
greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when
others are greedy.
When in Doubt,
Default to Being a Contrarian
Ignore sentiment driven trends and KEEP DEBT LOW.
Opportunities will arise to buy over-levered deals.
Take a Long Term View
As trends fizzle out, and sellers become exhausted, a new
trendsetter will emerge, THE VALUE DRIVEN INVESTOR.
They kick off the recovery rally.
Realize There is a Limit to
Directional Herd Behavior
Investors who have “dry powder”…aka CASH, can buy
quality assets at attractive valuations.
Be Opportunistic
THE
CALIBER
SOLUTION
Purchase Assets
below Market
Value
INVESTMENT
PRINCIPLESof CALIBER
Maintain Low
Leverage
Investors
profit first.
Build Value,
don’t rely on
Economy
Full control of
investment
cycle.
Income creates
value.
60%20%Below Market
Acquisitions
Hand-selected, commercial
assets with excellent income
and growth potential
Maximum Leverage
Long Term
About
the fund
Limit Leverage, Reduce Risk
50% Growth | 50% Income – Perfect Mix
$100,000,000 Offering - $100,000 Min
Diverse Locations, Asset Types, Strategies
Caliber Diversified
Opportunity Fund II, LP
Figures are not actual numbers but are assumptions. No guarantees of performance.
Cap Rate Target 5 Year Internal Rate
of Return (IRR) Target
All Assets Perform
Within 95% or
Better of
Benchmarks
Cash Flow
Distribution Growth
Over Time
10% 20% 95% 6-12% 20%
Acquisition Discount
to Market
FUND GOALS
Caliber Diversified Opportunity Fund II, lp
What the
Caliber Diversified Fund II, LP
OWNS NOW
256 Acres in Denver, Colorado: “Johnstown”
Mixed Use
8 Retail Buildings in Downtown Mesa
Retail
Student Housing: “GC Square Apartments”
Multi-Family
Phoenix Airport Hotel Package:
Hilton, Crowne, & Holiday Inn
Hospitality
Logan Airport Self-Storage in Logan, Utah
Self Storage
Sip Coffee Tenant Investment
Retail
Four Points by Sheraton
Hospitality
Hilton Tucson East
Hospitality
Palms Apartment Portfolio
Multi-Family
The picture can't be displayed.
SAVE THE DATE
MONTH
01
DAY
25
YEAR
2018
JANUARY CALIBER SUMMITSERIES
AT SILVERLEAF CLUB
MONTH
12
DAY
13
YEAR
2017
CALIBER SUMMIT SERIES: BUILDING BETTER
INVESTMENTS: A LOOK INTO 2018 WITH CALIBER
AT SILVERLEAF CLUB
JOIN OUR UPCOMING EVENTS
WWW.CALIBERCO.COM/EVENTS
Question
And
Answer Session
Thank YouFor attending
16074 N 78th St | Suite B-104 | Scottsdale, AZ 85260

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Your Brain on Real Estate - Why do you invest the way you do

  • 1. CALIBER summit series Welcome Caliber Clients & Guests! Your brainOn real estate
  • 2. 2 Introducing Jennifer Schrader: • Co-Founder & Chief Operating Officer of Caliber Companies. • Sets investment strategy for incoming properties in concert with the Company’s Executive Committee. • Oversees Caliber’s portfolio of single family homes, apartments, office buildings and hotels. • Designs property renovations including the recent $8.5M renovation of the Crowne Plaza Phoenix Airport Hotel. • Has spent her entire career as a real estate entrepreneur after several years of architecture & design school. Jennifer Schrader COO / Co-Founder
  • 3. 3 Introducing Chris Loeffler: • Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Caliber • Focused on strategy, growth, investment structures, and real estate assets • Fund manager for Caliber’s private investment funds. • Prior to serving as the Company’s CEO, Chris utilized knowledge and skillsets acquired as an auditor for PWC. • Has grown Caliber over a six-year period to manage over $265M in assets with average year over year growth of nearly 100% per year. • Dedicated to you, Caliber’s community of clients, team members, and supporters Chris Loeffler CEO / Co-Founder
  • 4. 4 Introducing Tom Bade: •Career began in the real estate industry in 1978, primarily in the development of both office and retail projects but also in the areas of multi-family apartments, industrial and mini storages. •Prior to joining Caliber, Tom was a Senior Vice President at National Bank of Arizona where he worked in the Wealth Management Group and was also a registered investment advisor. •Tom is active in the Phoenix community and has served as a director of valley charitable and cultural organizations including Faith House, A New Leaf, West Valley Child Crisis Center, Northwest Valley YMCA, and the Arizona Leadership Caucus. Tom Bade VP of Client Relations
  • 5. This presentation includes statements concerning the Company's expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, assumptions of future events, future financial performance, or growth and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, readers and the audience can identify these forward-looking statements through the use of words or phrases such as "estimate," "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "project," "believe," "forecast," "should," "could," and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The Company's expectations, beliefs, and projections are expressed in good faith and are believed by the Company to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs, or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the Company’s ability to successfully operate and manage its business, including, among others, title disputes, weather conditions, shortages, delays, or unavailability of equipment and services required in real estate development, property management, brokerage and investment and fund operations, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and compliance with environmental laws and regulations; changes in costs of operations; loss of markets; volatility of real estate prices; imprecision of property valuations; environmental risks; fluctuations in weather patterns; competition; inability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources; general economic conditions; litigation; changes in regulation and legislation; economic disruptions or uninsured losses resulting from major accidents, fires, severe weather, natural disasters, terrorist activities, acts of war, cyber attacks, or pest infestation; increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. In addition to financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), this presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. The Company believes that such non-GAAP financial measures are useful because they provide an alternative method for assessing the Company’s operating results in a manner that is focused on the performance of the Company’s ongoing operations, for measuring the Company’s cash flow and liquidity, and for comparing the Company’s financial performance to other companies. The Company’s management uses these non-GAAP financial measures for the same purpose, and for planning and forecasting purposes. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not meant to be a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. This is not an offering of securities. Any such offer must be accompanied by an Offering document. Readers are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Offering documents. DISCLAIMER
  • 6. 600+ $265+ 350+ $350m EMPLOYEES AUM INVESTORS ACQUISITIONS A LOOK AT CALIBER today Single family, apartments, office, hospitality, self- storage Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Utah, Alaska & Colorado Full control of the investment cycle Four private equity funds INC. 500 – Number 404, Fastest Growing Private Companies in United States
  • 7. recent awards Inc. 500 Recipient ACE Awards Recipient IMPACT Awards Large Business, Economic Driver Better Business Bureau Torch Awards for Ethics Finalist Inc. 5000 Recipient Think Realty Commercial Investor of the Year Recipient Most Influential Women in Arizona Recipient Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year Nominee Sterling Awards Recipient Crowne Plaza Design Award
  • 8. How to THINK & Invest Like a Professional 1 Create a Process that Leads to Greater Profits with Less Risk 2 Ways to Utilize Your Strengths & Recognize Your Weaknesses 3 How to Develop Your Own Real Estate Portfolio & Align it with Your Goals 4 Today’s AgendaFor One Hour of Your Time
  • 9. PARTS OF THE HUMAN BRAIN Frontal Lobe Temporal Lobe Spinal Cord Cerebellum Occipital Lobe Parietal Lobe
  • 10.
  • 11. Mountain presentation by ContestDesign RATIONALITY Investors are not always rational. EMOTIONS Emotions can influence our decision making – Especially when uncertain. SOCIAL BIASES Social amplification of biases and influence of positive feedback – upset equilibrium. CONTRARIAN Applying behavioral perspective goes beyond just being a contrarian. Why is Behavioral Awareness an importantinvestment tool?
  • 12. MARKET EFFICIENCY Inconsistent information & dependence on intermediaries. 01 03 02 04 05 06 07 INABILITY TO GO SHORT Can’t bet the other way. PRICE DISCOVERY No transparency or central exchange means sellers know more than buyers. ILLIQUIDITY Can’t just sell today and each property is unique. HIGH TRANSACTION COSTS Expenses vary…from access costs to commission’s & loans. INVESTOR PERCEPTION Misunderstood asset class. From terminology, to how one derives value, aka “income vs growth”. EMOTIONAL PULL More figuratively, since it is an asset you can touch, you have a greater emotional attachment to it. YOU OWN IT, therefore it’s worth more. Why is REAL ESTATE such a ripe area for Behavioral Biases?
  • 13. How Emotions Can lead You ASTRAY Optimism Excitement Thrill Euphoria Point of Maximum Financial Risk Point of Maximum Financial Risk Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Panic Capitulation Despondency Depression Hope Relief Optimism “How could I have been so wrong?” “Temporary set back – I’m a long-term investor.” “Wow, am I smart.”
  • 14. “Of all the ways of defining man, the worst is the one which makes him out to be a rational animal.” - Anatole France
  • 15. THE FRAMING BIAS What is framing? How does framing affect real estate investing? THE ANCHORING BIAS What is anchoring? How does apply to real estate? LOSS AVERSION What is loss aversion? How does loss aversion apply to real estate? HOME BIAS What is home bias? How does home bias apply to real estate? THE HERDING BIAS What is herding? How does herding apply to real estate?
  • 16. THE FRAMING BIAS AND REAL ESTATE
  • 17. SECTOR Apartment, Office, Retail, Industrial, Hospitality, Self-Storage. STYLE Core, Core +, Opportunistic, Value Add. GEOGRAPHIC New York Office, Bay Area Multi-Family, Phoenix Industrial. “The implication is that these are all relatively homogeneous and have similar risk return characteristics”……”and that “Prime” properties are less volatile. A way of defining assets along sector, style, and geographic lines, which in turn have shaped investor thinking and expectations about what the labels mean. WHAT IS “FRAMING BIAS”? “
  • 18. Property Comparison Multi Family VS THE PalmsApartments Class C Cost per Door: $38,000 Cap Rate: 10.48% Exit Strategy: Multiple Mark TaylorApartments Class A Cost per Door: $170,000 Cap Rate: 3.5% Exit Strategy: Limited
  • 19. What investors shoulddo? Which is the dominant and least volatile source of real estate returns. Place Particular Emphasis on the Level & Sustainability of an Asset’s RENTAL INCOME. Go beyond standard industry labels. Geography, sector, lease length, tenant risk, refurbishment potential, building age, general state of the market…. WHICH OF THESE PREDICTED OUTPERFORMANCE. Give Greater Consideration to the Underlying Drivers of Real Estate Performance Based upon different asset classes and different types of assets within the classes; tenant risk, lease quality & geography. Diversify a Portfolio
  • 20. “We Always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will take place in the next ten.” - BILL GATES
  • 21. THE ANCHORING BIAS AND REAL ESTATE
  • 22. APPRAISALS & BPO’S Comps based on past pricing and similar assets. PROPERTY OWNERS & PROSPECTIVE SELLERS ANCHOR valuations based on the PRICE THEY PAID or ANY VALUATION ABOVE THAT PRICE. BROKERS ANCHOR valuations based on ASKING PRICES. PROSPECTIVE BUYERS ANCHOR current valuations to PAST TRANSACTIONS. Real estate investors “anchor” to a range of measures with low predictive value - these include economic growth rates, weightings, market turnover and pricing. WHAT IS “ANCHORING BIAS”? “
  • 23. VSThe Hamptoninn & suites Limited Service Cost per Key: $104,000 Cap Rate: 13.4% Renovations: $100,000 Loan: $7,000,000 Equity In: $4,500,000 Property Comparison Hospitality Four pointsby Sheraton Full Service Cost per Key: $100,000 Cap Rate: 5% Renovations: $500k Brand Required PIP Loan: $12,000,000 Equity In: $6,000,000
  • 24. What investors should do? Champion strategies that are centered around analysis and maximization of income return. Focus on Factors which Drive Income Over Capital Gains The lower the initial yield the greater the market risk. In Terms of Asset Valuation, Place Greater Emphasis on Yield than Absolute Price Focus on geographic markets that emphasize income driven returns. (AZ vs CA) For Investors Concerned with Capital Preservation Look at what you actually have now and look ahead. Do Not Be Afraid to Take a Loss & Don’t Focus on the Past to Evaluate the Future
  • 25. THE LOSS AVERSION AND REAL ESTATE
  • 26. MARKET CORRECTION Occurs in 3 phases: Phase 1 – Most hold Phase 2 – Some hold but some sell Phase 3 – All sell, WHEN THEY SHOULD BE BUYING WHEN TO SELL When assets fundamentals are no longer attractive SELLING VS STRATEGY CHANGE OF AN ASSET “Develop your way out” Experiments show people care more about LOSING A DOLLAR THAN GAINING A DOLLAR. Reaction is an innate system 1 response designed to assure our survival. WHAT IS “LOSS AVERSION”? “
  • 27. 03 27 UPTOWN SQUAREApartments Cost per Door: $69,000 Cap Rate: 8% Renovations: $1,200,000 Exit Strategy: Under Contract for $3.2M Property Comparison Multi Family Gc squareApartments Student Housing – Class C to Class A Cost per Door: $75,000 Cap Rate: 6% Renovations: $6,000,000 Exit Strategy: Multiple Class C to Class A
  • 28. What investors shoulddo? With a disciplined buy, and multiple exit strategies, OR choose a real estate portfolio manager that does so. Apply a Consistent Investment Process As if you didn’t own them….would you buy them again or are other investments more attractive? Regularly Review Investments from First Principles Don’t hold poor investments just to avoid a loss. If the reason you bought it has changed, and the fundamentals of the asset are no longer attractive, THEN SELL. Run the Winners, NOT the Losers
  • 29. THE HOME BIAS AND REAL ESTATE
  • 30. DIFFERENT RISKS FOR LOCATIONS Different Cities, States & Countries Have Different Risks & Benefits Associated with Each – Property Taxes, Zoning, Local attitudes. READILY AVAILABLE INFORMATION When we make decisions, we choose most readily available information: Zillow, Redfin & Loopnet vs Costar, Yardi & the value of your network & experience. ASSET CLASSES QUOTED DIFFERENTLY RevPar, cash on cash, IRR, price per unit, price per key, cap rate, ROI KNOW YOUR LENDERS “The difference between a good deal and a great deal” Investing in WHAT IS FAMILIAR and AVOIDING THAT WHICH IS FOREIGN. WHAT IS “HOME BIAS”? “
  • 31. assets by Category CURRENT CALIBER ACQUISITIONS 27% 53% 3% 3% 1% 11% 2% Multi-Family GC Square, Treehouse, Palms/4Rent Weekly, South Mountain Square, Mountain View Square, and Uptown Square Apartments. Hospitality Crowne Plaza, Hampton Inn & Suites, Hilton Phoenix Airport, Holiday Inn, Salmon Falls, Edgewater Inn, Four Points by Sheraton, and more. Retail Eight retail buildings located near the light rail in Downtown Mesa. Land Mixed Use Development such as Saddleback Ranch in Wickenburg, AZ and Villages at Johnstown in Colorado. Self Storage Various Self-Storage facilities located throughout Utah, Arizona, and Nevada. Office Fiesta Tech Center and Baywood Square Professional Park Single Family & Net Zero Residential Existing SFR and ground up, net zero energy developments, including the Roosevelt and Eclipse projects.
  • 32. • Focus on markets with population growth and income improvement • Main Geographic Focus is the greater Southwest – Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Nevada, Utah and Alaska • Invest in markets that have business and growth friendly state and local governments • Avoid direct competition in over-regulated and saturated markets STRATEGY CALIBER INVESTMENTMARKETSASSETS ARE CURRENTLY DIVERSIFIED ACROSS 6 STATES
  • 33. What investors shoulddo? Broad geographic diversification can produce better risk-adjusted returns. First, Ensure that Portfolios are Diversified Across Geographies Given that Income forms the bulk of Total Returns, and is less volatile than Capital Appreciation, one must ensure the sustainability of cash flows. Asset specific analysis is essential. Diversify Income Streams, the Attractiveness of Which Depends on Geography Bubbles can form in any market as a result of behavioral biases. Look for Assets in Various Cities, States & Countries
  • 34. THE HERDING BIAS AND REAL ESTATE
  • 35. “The Five Most Dangerous Words in Business are…..EVERYBODY ELSE IS DOING IT.” - WARREN BUFFET
  • 36. UNDER UNCERTAINTY Investors believe there is value in following the decision-making of other market participants, (first movers, experts or insiders who are perceived to have more information). SOCIAL PROOF TO BLAME People follow the actions of others in an attempt to reflect the “correct behavior” for a given situation. The urge to conform. DANGEROUS IN REAL ESTATE In combination with individual cognitive errors, market’s behavioral biases exert greater influence on real estate prices than the fundamentals. Ex: 2008 Housing Market. When Investors STOP THINKING INDEPENDENTLY and START BLINDLY FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS. WHAT IS “HERDING BIAS”? “
  • 37.
  • 38. Prices of Housing& Commercial real estate, Dec. 2000= 1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 CRE Housing jun2006 jun2007 DEC2007 jun2008 DEC2008 jun2009 DEC2005 jun2005 DEC2004 jun2004 DEC2003 jun2003 DEC2002 Jun2002 DEC2001 JUN2001 DEC2000
  • 39. What investors shoulddo? Acknowledge you will be vulnerable to your emotions. Resist the Urge to Act Impulsively in a Downturn Recognize markets tend to over & under react. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. When in Doubt, Default to Being a Contrarian Ignore sentiment driven trends and KEEP DEBT LOW. Opportunities will arise to buy over-levered deals. Take a Long Term View As trends fizzle out, and sellers become exhausted, a new trendsetter will emerge, THE VALUE DRIVEN INVESTOR. They kick off the recovery rally. Realize There is a Limit to Directional Herd Behavior Investors who have “dry powder”…aka CASH, can buy quality assets at attractive valuations. Be Opportunistic
  • 41. Purchase Assets below Market Value INVESTMENT PRINCIPLESof CALIBER Maintain Low Leverage Investors profit first. Build Value, don’t rely on Economy Full control of investment cycle. Income creates value.
  • 42. 60%20%Below Market Acquisitions Hand-selected, commercial assets with excellent income and growth potential Maximum Leverage Long Term About the fund Limit Leverage, Reduce Risk 50% Growth | 50% Income – Perfect Mix $100,000,000 Offering - $100,000 Min Diverse Locations, Asset Types, Strategies Caliber Diversified Opportunity Fund II, LP
  • 43. Figures are not actual numbers but are assumptions. No guarantees of performance. Cap Rate Target 5 Year Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Target All Assets Perform Within 95% or Better of Benchmarks Cash Flow Distribution Growth Over Time 10% 20% 95% 6-12% 20% Acquisition Discount to Market FUND GOALS Caliber Diversified Opportunity Fund II, lp
  • 44. What the Caliber Diversified Fund II, LP OWNS NOW 256 Acres in Denver, Colorado: “Johnstown” Mixed Use 8 Retail Buildings in Downtown Mesa Retail Student Housing: “GC Square Apartments” Multi-Family Phoenix Airport Hotel Package: Hilton, Crowne, & Holiday Inn Hospitality Logan Airport Self-Storage in Logan, Utah Self Storage Sip Coffee Tenant Investment Retail Four Points by Sheraton Hospitality Hilton Tucson East Hospitality Palms Apartment Portfolio Multi-Family
  • 45. The picture can't be displayed. SAVE THE DATE MONTH 01 DAY 25 YEAR 2018 JANUARY CALIBER SUMMITSERIES AT SILVERLEAF CLUB MONTH 12 DAY 13 YEAR 2017 CALIBER SUMMIT SERIES: BUILDING BETTER INVESTMENTS: A LOOK INTO 2018 WITH CALIBER AT SILVERLEAF CLUB JOIN OUR UPCOMING EVENTS WWW.CALIBERCO.COM/EVENTS
  • 47. Thank YouFor attending 16074 N 78th St | Suite B-104 | Scottsdale, AZ 85260