The built environment is headed for disruption. But the details of this pending disruption are not clear. This presentation provides insights into technology, innovation, and disruption in AEC to provide the audience with their own basis for viewing their marketplace, tools, and processes.
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Keynote: WDBE 2018 in Helsinki - Top 8 Insights on Tech, Innovation, & Disruption in AEC
1. BuildingSP
Algorithms and Automation
for the Construction Industry
Disruption in the Built Environment:
Top 8 Insights on Technology, Innovation, and Disruption
By Brett Young
2. BuildingSP
Presentation Objective
There is general consensus that the built environment will
experience technology-driven disruption in the near future.
There is less certainty on the details of this disruption.
This presentation outlines 8 insights, based on experience and
observation, that can be relied upon to predict the story of
disruption in the Architecture, Engineering & Construction (AEC)
industry.
3. BuildingSP
My background in the coordination of mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) systems
started with hand-drawn shop drawings on vellum, continued with founding and managing a
BIM consulting firm, and now includes software development.
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This is what I looked like when I
was a project manager for a San
Francisco general contractor.
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Current Work
My current passion is the use of gaming engines to change our reliance on industry-standard software.
In the following example, you can see an electrical modeling tool for in-slab conduit systems.
The time to build a tool in a gaming engine – we used Unity in this example – is significantly shorter than
building it in a traditional BIM platform. The technical capabilities, developer network, and flexibility allow
for super agile development, which is exciting for our industry.
(After we define disruption, you’ll understand how we view this work as potentially disruptive, but not yet
disruptive.)
6. BuildingSP
Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#8 – Disruption & Business Models
Disruption is the change of the business
model of an industry.
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Satellite Launch Industry
Global Total Addressable Market (2016)
EUR 4.62 Billion
Reference: 2017 State of the Satellite Industry Report
SpaceX Market Share
(2016)
Construction Industry
(2016)
10. BuildingSP
Reference: 2017 State of the Satellite Industry Report
Satellite Launch Industry
(2016)
Construction Industry
(2016)
SpaceX dominates an industry.
But the satellite delivery industry
is smaller than some of AEC’s
projects.
Venture capital will seek to
mimic the dominance of SpaceX
in the larger industry of AEC.
11. BuildingSP
Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#6 –Disruption & Fundamental Principles
Disruption affects the fundamental
principles of an industry.
(In AEC… Time + Money + Risk)
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$5.5 Billion (Global)
Has the mechanical
engineer responded to
my RFI yet?
It isn’t late yet. The
contract says 7-day
turnaround.
I’ve become convinced that transforming design is the path to AEC disruption. For example, if AEC
wants to use manufacturing methods, we need to “fix” the broken design process.
13. BuildingSPHow Do Game Engines Relate to
Fundamental Principles?
There’s a lack of available staff for BIM
applications users and API programmers.
But there is a surplus of game developers.
If game engines become BIM platforms, we
can affect AEC’s fundamental metrics using
this dev talent.
14. BuildingSP
Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#5 –Disruption & Secondary Effects
The secondary effects of disruption are
ALSO disruptive while also less predictable.
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Did you know that Uber is affecting ambulance services? It’s much cheaper for someone to call an Uber to
go to the hospital. Similarly, iPhones have caused a drop in sales for flashlights. These are examples of
secondary effects.
Source: Wikipedia
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My own work demonstrates secondary effects.
We’ve been data mining CAD files to create
Machine Learning data sets in order to
automatically model MEP systems.
The primary benefit is faster modeling
capabilities.
But the secondary effect is estimating, which is
much more disruptive to business processes.
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Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#4 – Disruption & Competitive Advantage
In an under-digitized industry, the
“stacking” of tech tools can be a significant
competitive advantage.
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Pixar is an example of a insurmountable competitive advantage. Even with $2B, it
would be impossible to compete with a firm that has cultivated a specialized tech
stack for modeling hair, eyes, shadows, etc.
Source: Pixar
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Configurators
On the next slide is an example of a electrical configuration tool, which uses a network diagram tool in Unity
to configure the conduit systems using auto-modeling. The use of this configuration tool enables the
automatic modeling of the system, which then allows for a detailed cost estimate.
But it should be noted that the competitive advantage magnifies when we add configuration tools for other
MEP systems. This is an example of “tech stacking”.
21. BuildingSP
Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#3 – Disruption & Black Swans
Technology that may not seem disruptive
creates foundations for disruption.
22. BuildingSP
Insights on Disruption in AEC:
Innovation is not characterized by “black swan” events. For example, Uber needed
consumers to experience a progressive succession of social apps in order be successful.
Consumers weren’t prepared to get into an internet stranger’s car until they were comfortable
to get into a relationship with an internet stranger.
For AEC, tech like BIM may not be disruptive. But it will very likely create the foundation for
disruptive tech.
Source: Match.com
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Insights on Disruption in AEC:
#2 – Incumbents & Disruption
Shirkey Principle: Institutions will try to
preserve the problem to which they are the
solution
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What tech have we added to the AEC industry since 1964?
Source: Prof Teicholz, Stanford University