CPPI Drop
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Though the Seattle/Puget Sound region absorbed over 4M SF over the course of 2015, according to Colliers International Research, the highest since 2006, recent U.S. trends in commercial property sales prices could signal the start of the slowdown for commercial real estate throughout the country and the Seattle - Bellevue office markets especially.
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CPPI Drop
- 1. 2016: The 7th Inning Stretch Source: Moody’s/RCA, Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, Colliers International Research » Though the Seattle/Puget Sound region enjoyed the highest net absorption total since 2006 (4.2M SF), 2016 could be the beginning of the slowdown. » In January 2016, the Moody’s/Real Capital Analytics Commercial Property Price Index recorded the first monthly decline in commercial property prices nationwide in 6 years, dropping 0.3%. Though not yet a trend, this follows the month of December when prices stayed flat. » For CORE commercial properties (office, industrial, retail), prices dropped 0.8% nationwide. » The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster states that the region’s job growth remains stable, but will start to fall off in 2016 and even more so in 2017. The 2016 outlook shows a 2.3% increase in jobs, then 1.5% in 2017, following a solid 3.2% in 2015. We will see the effect this has on CRE. 2016: The Beginning of the End? - Though the Seattle/Puget Sound region enjoyed the highest net absorption total since 2006 (4.2M SF), 2016 could be the beginning of the slowdown. - In January 2016, the Moody’s/Real Capital Analytics Commercial Property Price Index recorded the first monthly decline in commercial property prices nationwide in 6 years, dropping 0.3%. Though not yet a trend, this follows the month of December when prices stayed flat. 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00 240.00 260.00 280.00 300.00 Moody's / RCA Commercial Property Price Index US All Property Types US Suburban Office US CBD Office US Industrial US Retail 3.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2015 2016-P 2017-P Puget Sound Economic Forecast - Job Growth 180.00 185.00 190.00 195.00 200.00 205.00 210.00 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Moody's / RCA Commercial Property Price Index - All Property Types