Upper mo stbuzzar_vol34

1
For internal circulation only
Business communique for MOFSL Business Partners
Vol
-
34
B
udget 2021-22 was presented on 1
Feb’21 amid a challenging macro
environment. With the first decline in
nominal/real GDP in four decades, the
Government of India (GoI) had to walk the
tightrope, which they seem to have done.
Though there is no large fiscal stimulus, the
absence of any tax hikes and better fiscal math
by this renewed and bold GoI provides extreme
comfort.
Government has pegged fiscal deficit at 9.5% of
GDP in FY21RE (Revised Estimate). However,
almost four-fifth (or 2pp of GDP) of this surprise
was due to food/fertilizer subsidy, which was
kept off-Budget last year (through the Food
Corporation of India, FCI). Further, the budgeted
fiscal deficit for FY22 is at 6.8% of GDP which is
higher than general expectation (of ~5.5% of
GDP). This is highly appreciated and
commendable given the revenue constraints
government had.
Ahead of the budget fears/concerns of a)
potential increase in taxation for the super-rich /
the imposition of a COVID ‘cess’ and b) hikes in
capital gains taxes had kept the market nervous
for the past couple of weeks. However, these
fears fortunately did not materialize, which
cheered the markets. They rose ~5%, marking
the best rally since 1997 on a budget day.
Growth revival is the central theme for this
budget, and the finance ministry (FM) has
chosen to use capex / infra investments as a
vehicle to drive growth. The FM has significantly
increased allocation to Healthcare given the
backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Allocations to several infrastructure schemes
have also been enhanced (Roads and Water – Jal
Jeevan Mission).
2021-22
Progressive on all fronts

Union Budget 2021-22
Numerous important structural measures
stood as the key highlights
a) the setting up of a development finance
institution (DFI),
b) establishment of asset reconstruction co.
(ARC) / asset management co. (AMC) for the
disposal of stressed assets,
c) a comprehensive asset monetization plan,
d) a scrappage scheme for the Automobile
sector,
e) an FDI hike in insurance to 74%, and
f) potential divestments of two PSU banks and
a general Insurance co.
Overall, from an equity market perspective, we
believe the budget, on balance, has turned out
well, with no negatives on the taxation front and
several long-term structural initiatives that
augur well for medium-term growth. The push
for capex and investments could trigger the
revival of an investment cycle, in our view, which
could then spread to multiple sectors – Cement,
Auto, BFSI, Metals, and Capital Goods. This is
further corroborated by the commentary on
capacity utilization from corporates that have
reported 3QFY21 earnings thus far.
We believe that with the big event now largely
positive, the market focus would return to the
fundamentals, viz. corporate earnings growth,
which is showing tangible momentum.
Earnings upgrades are seen for the second
consecutive quarter. Incrementally, earnings
drivers are shifting to cyclical.
Overall at a time of unprecedented economic
crisis, we believe that the Budget has been
progressive on all fronts and the government
doing its part to spend enough to revive the
economy. Hence, there would be enough
impetus to the capex driven sectors like
Corporate Banks, Cement, Capital goods,
Infrastructure & Construction, Real estate going
forward for next few years.
Based on the Budget, we have created a High
Conviction Basket on the Capex Revival Theme
as we expect the push for capex and
investments could trigger the revival of an
investment cycle going forward. One can invest
in this basket of 7 stocks which we expect to do
well from medium to long term perspective.
2

Union Budget 2021-22
Order inflows remained robust with 76% YoY growth during 3QFY21, thanks to
large orders like the High Speed Rail and roadways. The outlook looks quite
encouraging with record high order book, robust Balance Sheet, improving
government financials, and impetus on Infrastructure development as a tool to
lift long-term economic growth in India. Top pick for the capex revival cycle.
UTCEM’s strong pan-India distribution network and preferred supplier status
for key infrastructure projects places it well to tap into expected growth in both
retail and institutional (non-trade) cement demand in India. While it is ramping
up its under-utilized acquired capacities, it also has a strong pipeline of
expansion projects that offers strong growth visibility. Big beneficiary of Capex
revival and Infra push in Budget.
ICICIBC reported a strong 3QFY21 led by robust operating performance and
strong asset quality. Loan growth is showing a strong revival in both Wholesale
and Retail. Asset quality remains under control. Liability franchise continues to
improve, while the Balance Sheet remains fairly liquid and thus conducive for
growth.
Govt. to Set Up Bad Bank to Manage Record Levels of Soured Debt which will be
a big positive for PSU banks. PSU Bank recap of Rs200 bn declared in budget
again a positive step for PSU banks like SBI. We believe the earnings
normalization cycle for SBIN has begun as the uncertainty brought about by the
pandemic is receding significantly.
20%
1
2
3
4
20%
15%
15%
M&HCV has started showing signs of initial recovery. The normalization of
working capital has enabled QoQ reduction in net debt by INR12b. Moreover,
continued traction for LCV would enable strong recovery at the company level.
AL seems to be in a better position to come out stronger and grow faster than
the industry within 2–3 years.
5 10%
Oberoi Realty reported impressive 3QFY21 results. We are enthused by the
continued strength in the Residential segment’s performance over the last
couple of quarters and its positive outlook – on the back of strong demand
dynamics and government-led stimulus, coupled with a robust launch pipeline.
We expect Residential to do the heavy lifting and support growth. Beneficiary of
housing and infra push in the budget.
6 10%
VOLT has sustained its no.1 position in Room Air conditioners and further
improved its market share recently. We note that large part of the margin
surprise is due to cut in ad spends and low cost inventory procured last year.
VOLT remains our preferred play in the underpenetrated AC industry in India.
Beneficiary of capex revival going forward.
7 10%
L&T
Ultratech
Cement
ICICI
Bank
SBI
Ashok
Leyland
Oberoi
Realty
Voltas
Sr.
No Stock Name
Weie-
htage Rationale
3

THE TIME
IS NOW.
HAPPY
INVESTING!
A
4
s we are approaching the Financial
year end, it is truly looking a great
year with stock markets worldwide
at new highs and a general feeling of
optimism all over. The world seems to have
shrugged off the menace of the virus, which
once threatened to engulf all of us, but now
somehow seems less vicious. What the hell…
we will live it- life has to… must… go on.
The markets have once again proven to
be unpredictable and mysterious and
offered a truly roller coaster ride- plumbing
multi year lows in March only to rise like
the proverbial Phoenix from the ashes, and
scale new highs in a matter of months. The
Wall of Worry was climbed swiftly and with
such gusto that most of us who were still
recovering from the jolts of the Ides of March,
could not climb atop the gravy train as it
ferociously climbed up by
almost two-thirds, setting history as we oohed
and aahed in disbelief. Sadly, none of us really
rode the Bull, and whisper stories of fortunes
being made by investing at 7600 by dashing
Robinhoods are mostly works of fiction. Or,
there is the occasional fool, who did not listen to
anyone and really bought when there was blood
on the streets because he kind of liked the price
at which Corporate India was available.
Markets guide us time and again and present us
with opportunities to create fortunes (now in
hindsight all this looks quite logical). When the
virus struck us and the world and its powers that
be realized the enormity of the repercussions, all
hell broke lost. No one knew what to do but had
to the best they could, so everyone tried to do
what made sense that time. Markets reacted
violently, as they always do to uncertainty, only
to erupt upwards when the last man had sold
his blue chips. I am prone to believe that
markets went up because mostly everyone got
out; leaving only the ones who take a longer
term view of the business and isolate market
Navnit Bagri
(Head PCG Business, MOFSL)
The Time is NOW. Happy Investing!

The Time is NOW. Happy Investing!
5
fluctuations. How many of them would be there,
in these times, but the ones who are, surely
made a killing- buying 24% established
compounding stories at a 50% mark down. Why
look at stocks, the Nifty at 14700 today is up 90%
from its 7600 low- all one had to do was buy the
benchmark through an ETF at any time during
the last few months and he or she would have
made 30-40-50% return in a matter of months.
And we crib about FD rates falling by fraction of
a percent, when there is money lying round the
corner to be literally picked up.
It is not the first time such an event has
happened and I am sure there will be many
more such Black Swans in store for us as the
world changes even more dynamically in
compressed time periods. Money will be made
by exploiting the folly of others – which is
collectively the market. If one keeps an eye on
the businesses that these pieces of paper and
stock tickers represent, and if identifies even one
or two of such long term compounding
machines and patiently waits for opportune
time- ultimately the time will come one day.
What is then needed is Conviction and Action
and a Total Shutting-out-of-the-noise. If one can
repeat this few times in his life, many future
generations will benefit.
Investing is a relaxing and calming business and
its proponents enjoy monetary gain and a
longer life – Buffet and Munger are
nonagenarians and Philip Carret passed away to
yonder at 101. I do not know of any centenarian
adrenaline pumping traders who follow the
ticker every minute and know the price of
everything but the value of nothing. So create
your Circle of Competence and stay there. What
matters is not the circumference of the circle
but your control over what is inside.

Wealth Creation Study
6
The QGLP Checklist
25 questions, 25 frameworks
Motilal Oswal 25th Annual Wealth Creation Study 2020
The Motilal Oswal 25th Annual Wealth Creation Study is
a special Study with five sections:
Findings on
Wealth Creation
during the 25-year
period 1995-2020
25-for-25: A logical
approach to
shortlist 25 stocks for
the next 25 years
Theme 2021:
The QGLP Checklist
25 questions,
25 frameworks
Summary of
the previous
24 Wealth
Creation Studies
The
regular
section Findings on
Wealth Creation during
the last 5-year
period 2015-2020.

• Infosys is the Fastest Wealth Creator, with Price CAGR of 30%
• Reliance Industries is the Biggest Wealth Creator, with INR 6.3 trillion Wealth Created
• Kotak Mahindra Bank is the Most Consistent Wealth Creator
(It has outperformed the benchmark in 21 out of 23 rolling 3-year periods)
• Kotak Mahindra Bank is also the Top All-round Wealth Creator
(All-round Wealth Creators rank is arrived at by adding up the Fastest, Biggest and
Consistent ranks)
7
1995-2020: The Fastest, Biggest, Consistent
& All-round Wealth Creators
The QGLP Checklist & Related Frameworks
Frameworks:
(1) Investment v/s Speculation,
(2) Discounted Free Cash Flow to Equity,
(3) Power of Compounding,
(4) QGLP
Checklist
Backdrop

Q#1 - What is the history of the company and management?
Framework - (5) Lindy Effect
Q#9 - What is the addressable market opportunity and its key drivers?
Framework - (15) Value Migration, (16) India – the NTD Opportunity,
(17) Winner Categories, Category Winners
Q#4 - Are the company’s terms of trade favorable? Is Cash flow healthy?
Framework - (8) Terms of Trade
Q#8 - Does the company enjoy an Economic Moat? What are its sources?
Framework - (12) Economic Moat, (13) Porter’s Strategy Framework, (14) CAP & GAP
Q#10 - What is the company's growth plan? How sustainable is the growth?
Framework - (18) CVPM Analysis, (19) 100x, (20) Mid to Mega, (21) Large unpopular
Q#6 - How’s the Du Pont Analysis for the company?
Framework - (10) Du Pont Analysis
Q#3 - Is the company profitable? If not, is it expected to emerge?
Framework - (6) Great, Good, Gruesome, (7) Emergence
Q#5 - What is the company’s cost and margin structure? How has it changed in the past?
Framework - (9) Common Size Analysis
Q#7 - What is the competitive landscape? What is the role of regulation in the business?
Framework - (11) Porter’s 5 Forces
Q#2 - Is the company’s business model understandable? How does it make money?
BUSINESS CHECKLIST
GROWTH CHECKLIST
8

Q#11 - Is the management high on Integrity & transparency?
Framework - (22) Sharp Practices
Q#13 - Does the management have passion / growth mindset?
Framework - (23) Fixed v/s Growth Mindset
Q#12 - Is the management competent?
Q#20 - Has the financial modeling been done with earnings estimates for at least 3 years?
Q#24 - Is the stock reasonably liquid?
Q#14 - Does the company have a rational capital allocation policy?
Q#16 - What is the organization culture?
Q#18 - Do the owners have enough skin in the game?
Q#15 - Does the company have a suitable organization structure and depth of management?
Q#17 - Does the company have a sound succession plan?
Q#19 - Have the promoters pledged a large portion of their holding?
Q#21 - Is it a QGL stock?
Q#23 - Is there enough Margin of Safety?
Q#25 - What can go wrong with the company narrative & numbers?
MANAGEMENT CHECKLIST
PRICE CHECKLIST
RISK CHECKLIST
Q#22 - Is valuation reasonable?
Framework - (24) PEG, (25) Payback Ratio
9

• Time is a friend of good companies and enemy of bad companies. In 25 years, successful
companies grow to unimaginable levels in sales, profits and market cap.
• Of the top 500 companies listed in 1995, only 100 companies have outperformed the
benchmark.
• Stock returns are slaves of earnings power and growth. In the very long run, valuations
matter less.
• The future always holds a lot more promise. Over 50% of current market cap is made up
of listings post 1995.
• Equity investing is complex. A checklist is an excellent tool to bring discipline to the
process.
• The 25 questions here and the 25 related frameworks are a good starting point for an
investor to create their own checklist over time.
Other Highlights
10
Read Full Report
In my nearly fifty years of experience in Wall Street, I’ve found that I know less
and less about what the stock market is going to do but I know more and more
about what investors ought to do, and that’s a pretty vital change in attitude.
- Benjamin Graham

IAP Product Performance
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12

13

14

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F
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FOCO Testimonials
AVANI CONSULTANCY
We would like to mention that it's a great initiative by MOFSL and we would
like to appreciate them for the same.
Positive impact on our firm:
• It has positively contributed to overall performance in terms of revenue,
client base and re-activation of inactive clients.
• It has helped us to work more efficiently and in a systematic way
SANJAY DOSHI
This is regarding the feedback of our FOCO Advisors Aaushi, Janam and
Barkha. We are happy to be associated with this programme and we also have
seen a difference in our business ever since we have opted for the FOCO
Advisory. It is a process-oriented approach to the business.
Speaking individually we are happy to share that we are satisfied with Aaushi
and Janam. They have surely added value to our firm, good communication
skills and constant follow-up being their key area of excellence. However,
speaking about Barkha, we feel she is yet to adapt to the working technique.
We hope she gets there soon.
Also, kudos to the Team backing them; from our side namely Dishi Shah who
constantly Mentors them. Also, Mr. Yogesh Tank from HO has played a crucial
role in grooming them.
RELIABLE INVESTMENT
The idea of FOCO advisors is great and has already started working well for us.
Right from choice of candidates, training and follow up has been good and
will start yielding results soon.
18
Franchise Office Company Operated.
It is a game changer initiative by Motilal Oswal for their
business partner to take their business to next level.

S
U
P
E
R
A
C
H
I
E
V
E
R
DEC
20
19
Future Capital
(Durgapur)
Rajesh
Surendrakumar
Agarwal (Pune)
Goel Financial
Services (Akola)
Gaindamull Hemraj
Capital Advisors
(New Delhi)
Neelu Vijay
Kumar Gohil
(Bhilwara)
Vijaykumar Parekh
(Gandhinagar)
Rishabh Kathuria
(Delhi)
Vipin Kumar
(Mathura)
Hemlata Banjare
(Betul)
Shree Elegant Equity
(Rajkot)
Investcare Securities
(Jodhpur)
Best Business Partner
Shining Star
Client Acquisition
Value Management
Solution Pvt. Ltd.
(Ranchi)
Pushpgeet Financial
Services (Guwahati)
Investment
Products
Online
Business
Mangesh Sawant
(Mumbai)
Future Capital
(Durgapur)
Paathshala
Leader
Maximum Training
Participation
Rising Star
Rakeshkumar
Devchandbhai
Patel (Ahmedabad)
Commodities
Client Activation
Moneyfrog
Consultants
Pvt Ltd (Mumbai)
Currency
Rishabh Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd. (Beawar)

S
U
P
E
R
A
C
H
I
E
V
E
R
NOV
20
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Shree Elegant Equity
(Rajkot)
Value Management
Solution Pvt. Ltd.
(Ranchi)
Subrij Finvest
(Indore)
Triventure Advisory
Pvt. Ltd. (Mumbai)
Om Prakash
(Pali)
Mukund V Khanore
(Thane)
Hedge Equities Ltd.
(Ernakulam)
Joshi Ravi Kanubhai
(Gandhinagar)
Rahul Kashyap
(Faridabad)
Hedge Equities Ltd.
(Ernakulam)
Best Business Partner
Shining Star
Client Acquisition
Rising Star
Rainmakers
Broking House (Pune)
Tulsi Securities
(Delhi)
Online
Business
Client
Activation
Your Trust Investments
(Jaipur)
Commodities
Priyanka
Keshavagowda
(Bangalore)
Currency
Pushpgeet Financial Services (Guwahati)

is a delightful experience!
Kya aapne try kiya?
Mahesh B Ghare (Mumbai)
I would like to congratulate whole team to come up with this idea and
implement it so nicely. MOSt Advantage Desk did not make us feel like we are
in lockdown. All the follow ups and account opening were done on time and I
would like to special mention Ms. Marteena who was very helpful during the
whole process. Account opening was major concern in the lockdown, but
because of this desk all the accounts were opened faster than what we
expected and even the clients were happy. Really appreciate this initiative by
MOFSL and would surely recommend it to others.
Ashok Ramchandani (Thane)
Fantastic module what the company has started for the Business Associates
and it has made our life easier. And Ms. Marteena and the whole team, they are
very proactive and up to the mark with the follow-ups and everything. In fact
their account opening speed is much faster than what we do. I am sure other
Business Partner using this desk advantage and if not using then
recommending them to take advantage of this desk. It is a great service
provided by Motilal Oswal.
Sharad Pillai (Bhilai)
Service from MOSt Advantage has been really great. Ms. Marteena is helping in
all account opening and the whole process. We are getting accounts opened
quickly and it is a great help to us otherwise the process stops at account
opening as it takes time but because of this MOSt Advantage desk it is very
fast. Appreciate MOFSL for this great initiative.
Jatin Shah (Mumbai)
Overall experience with MOSt Advantage Desk was very good. The service is
very fast and really easy. Ms. Marteena was very proactive with the follow ups
and whole account opening process.
21

Compliments on association with us
22
21
21
20
20
19
18
18
17
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
13
12
12
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
P Kannan
R D Soni Securities
Raja Investment Services
N V Securities
Pushpgeet Financial Services
Artham Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
Vipul Securities
SVS Financial Consultants
Lalit Kumar Daga
Suresh Bhat M
Valuegrowth Investments
My Money Consulting
Shri Ram Investments
Embee Investments
Live Shares Pvt Ltd
Amit Agarwal
Kar & Kar Consultancy Pvt. Ltd.
Prakash Dsouza
Synergy Total Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
Nimish Gordhandas Ashar
Fortune Securities
Priyanka Rastogi
Bhikhubhai Mathurdas Khiroya
Bapuji Pampana
Nupur Mitra
Sivakasi
Hospet
Mumbai
Jalpaiguri
Guwahati
Surat
Bhubaneswar
Mumbai
Kolkata
Puttur
Vadodara
Shimoga
Mumbai
Ernakulam
Trichur
Kolkata
Talcher
Mangalore
Ahmedabad
Mumbai
Allahabad
Bangalore
Ahmedabad
Eluru
Kolkata
No of
Years
Company Name Location
On behalf of the entire Motilal Oswal Family, we extend our heartiest
congratulations to all the following partners for their glorious association with us.
Partnership with them has been a real honor for us and we cherish this
association. We wish them success for many more years to come and are sure
that together we will achieve much bigger milestones.

Compliments on association with us
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Shardul Abhay Mhalgi
Ujjwala Dattatraya Mulay
Juniper Equity India Pvt. Ltd.
Nagulakonda Venkata Ravi Chandran
Prashant Phougat
Beyond Dreams Financial Advisors
Geeta Girdhar Koli
Harshad Bhatia
Gee Ess Financial Services
Bhavesh Nagin Shah
Supriya Prasad Shetty
Abhijith Ramapriyan
Sailesh Choraria
Rahul Vaidh
Kredere Wealth Partner Pvt. Ltd.
Patel Mukesh Arvindbhai
Mohammad Azam
Avm Finserv
Kannaiah Tedla
Samridhi Financial Solutions
Radhamma.
Deepak Sahu
Mahesh Balaram Ghare
Vivek Gupta
Hemal Pravinchandra Shah
Vuddagiri Naga Venkata Sai Anudeep
Patel Ramilaben A
Nitasha Gupta
Sandhya Abhay Jogdand
Mahesh Kumar M B
No of
Years
Company Name Location
Pune
Pune
Delhi
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Mumbai
Mumbai
Mumbai
Faridabad
Mumbai
Mumbai
Bangalore
Kolkata
Mumbai
Mumbai
Vadodara
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Nalgonda
Delhi
Bangalore
Nainital
Mumbai
Pune
Mumbai
Hyderabad
Ahmedabad
Ghaziabad
Pune
Hassan
23

24

A Path to Progress
We are excited to announce the launch of Parichay for new joinee
employees of our Business Partners
Parichay is Industry’s first Training cum Induction programme, offering
insights, advice and help to your employee in navigating the Next level.
Do not miss this great opportunity to prepare your new joinee staff for
business!
Key takeaways from the programme
ESSENTIALS
OF BROKING
ADVISORY
THE KEY
DIFFERENTIATOR
TECHNOLOGY
AS BUSINESS
BOOSTERS
OPERATIONS
AND RMS
25

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26

16
Business communique for MOFSL Business Partners
Mo�lal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)* Member of NSE, BSE, MCX, NCDEX CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397
Registered Office Address: Mo�lal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-71934263; Website www.mo�laloswal.com. Correspon-
dence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000. Registra�on Nos.: Mo�lal Oswal Financial Services
Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836. (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance
Corporate Agent: CA0579. Mo�lal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registra�on No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group
company of MOFSL. Mo�lal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registra�on No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. • Mo�lal Oswal Financial
Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance Products , Investment advisor and IPOs.etc • Real Estate is offered through Mo�lal Oswal Real Estate
Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. • Private Equity is offered through Mo�lal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. •
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before inves�ng. There is no assurance or guarantee of
the returns. PMS is not offered in Commodity Deriva�ves segment. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@mo�laloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085. *MOSL has been
amalgamated with Mo�lal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble Na�onal Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The
informa�on is only for consump�on by the client and such material should not be redistributed. The securi�es quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. Brokerage will not exceed SEBI
prescribed limit. Customer having any query/feedback/ clarifica�on may write to query@mo�laloswal.com. In case of grievances for Securi�es Broking write to grievances@mo�laloswal.com, for DP to
dpgrievances@mo�laloswal.com.
Such representations are not indicative of future results.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
rd
3 4 V o l u m e
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