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Building Products in the Age
of Chaos
@BethanVincent
Hi, I’m Bethan 👋
Marketing Director at Netsells
📍 York, UK
@BethanVincent
Welcome to the
“Age of Chaos”
@BethanVincent
@BethanVincent
📈 Accelerating page of change
🌍 Global technological transformation
🔥 Demographic, political and social instability
🆘 Plethora of existential threats
@BethanVincent
Thanks for the socio-geo-political-
cultural critique
Why is this relevant to my work? 🧐
@BethanVincent
We build and operate constrained by ideology
and social pressures
@BethanVincent
1. We rely on historical data to predict the
future
1. We encourage consensus and conformity
1. We think we can know it all
@BethanVincent
Predicting the future
🔮
@BethanVincent
Source: FTSE top 100 snapshot taken 18th Oct 2019@BethanVincent
Source: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly
Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@BethanVincent
“Data for data’s sake, or the mindless
gathering of big data, without any
conceptual framework for organizing and
understanding it, may actually be bad or
even dangerous.”
Geoffrey West, Scale
@BethanVincent
● Understand the role confirmation bias in
decision making at all levels
● Accept and expect the unexpected - even if
stakeholders/clients don’t
● Use data to refute, not confirm
@BethanVincent
True competitive
advantage 🏆
@BethanVincent
@BethanVincent
@BethanVincent
● Diversity isn’t just “for show”
● Tinkering or 10% time has business value
● How do you deal with constraints
Cutting through
complexity 🌱
@BethanVincent
@BethanVincent Photo by Alina Grubnyak on Unsplash
@BethanVincent
Natural Systems
● Leverage bottom-up control
● Grow by adding multiple layers of simplicity
● Organise around self-changing rules
@BethanVincent
@BethanVincent
● Encourage specialisation with multiple connections
● Static teams are *probably* not the future
● Revisit and evolve processes
@BethanVincent
Main Takeaways
Historical data should be treated with caution
Diversity & constraints = competitive advantage
Optimise for meaningfully networked specialists
🐦 @BethanVincent / @Netsells
📩 bethan@bethanvincent.com
🧐 netsells.co.uk / bethanvincent.com
@BethanVincent

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Building products in the age of chaos, P3X, Oct 2019

Editor's Notes

  1. As a Marxist historiography he has focused on analysis of the "dual revolution" (the political French Revolution and the British Industrial Revolution). He saw their effect as a driving force behind the predominant trend towards liberal capitalism today. Macro-trends which influenced micro-outcomes
  2. All things I think Scrum helps with
  3. VUCA world (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous – an acronym used by the US army"
  4. Are we heading towards a technological singularity Technology is no longer the preserve of the rich, culturally homogenous west Late stage neoliberal capitalism and the end of the nation state
  5. Building products and software that have high product/market fit is a hard task regardless, this is made even harder by the shifting stands of a society that is an accelerating state of flux.
  6. Building products and software that have high product/market fit is a hard task regardless, this is made even harder by the shifting stands of a society that is an accelerating state of flux.
  7. It’s naive to predict the future from the past
  8. “Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interests,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.*” Effect of improbable events
  9. Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that affirms one's prior beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning.
  10. All things I think Scrum helps with
  11. Natural systems survive by encouraging diversity, eccentricity, instability. They maximize the fringes.
  12. “We have been cursed to live in interesting times” Natural systems survive by encouraging diversity, eccentricity, instability. They maximize the fringes.
  13. Mention Specfox
  14. We live in an age of networked systems, socially, economically, globally - right down to the infrastructure we use to build and serve our products
  15. We live in an age of networked systems, socially, economically, globally - right down to the infrastructure we use to build and serve our products
  16. Natural systems distribute intelligence outward and reject central authority. They control from the bottom up.