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COVID-19Vaccines
AnoverviewofCOVID-19vaccines,theirdistribution,and
acceptanceandhesitation
To be updated periodically: Updated 12/16/2020
Mark Nichter, PhD, MPH 1, Joseph Fong, MPH 2, Collin Catalfamo, MPH 2, Amy Lind 2
1 School of Anthropology, University of Arizona
2 Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona
Vaccine Development
Whatisavaccine?
• Vaccines help thebody’s immunesystemrecognize and respond to severe diseases
• Todo this,a vaccinemusttriggeran immuneresponse,usuallythroughtheuseofan
invader’s(virus,bacteria,pathogen)surfaceproteins,weakenedorkilledvariantsofan
invader,ora byproductofa disease
• Whena vaccinatedindividualis exposedtothedisease,thebodycanmorereadilyand
quicklyrespondand neutralizethedisease
• Vaccines can prevent and/orreducethe severity of diseasesand areone public
health’s most effectivediseaseprevention methods
ThepushforCOVID-19vaccines
• Given the benefitsof vaccines, global effortsfor a vaccine for COVID-19have been
massive
• Vaccines could not only protect individuals,but if large enoughpopulations
received them, a COVID-19vaccine could protect thosewho were ineligibleto
receive a vaccine throughherd immunity
ThepushforCOVID-19vaccines
• However:
• Vaccinesneedtoshowefficacy and effectivenessduringtesting;in otherwords,
COVID-19vaccinesneedtoprovethemselveseffectiveatpreventingCOVID-19
infections
• Vaccine Efficacy: How good avaccineisat preventing a diseasein a controlled experiment.
• Vaccine Effectiveness: Howgood a vaccineisat preventinga diseaseamong thegeneral
population
• Vaccinetestingmustbe thoroughand transparenttoensuretheriskofreceivinga
vaccinedoesnotputindividualsatunnecessaryrisk
• Vaccinesneedhighuptaketobeeffective;ifnobodyagreestoreceivea vaccine,itis
useless
Whatdoesvaccinedevelopmentnormallylooklike?
• Vaccine development is very similar to thedevelopment of pharmaceuticals
• Extensivetestingis completed throughmultiplephasesto determineefficacy(how
well the vaccine protects againstdisease)and safety (whether the benefitsof the
vaccine outweightheir potential side effects)
• Normally,a vaccine can take 10-15yearsto develop.
Pre-humanstagesofvaccinedevelopment
• Exploratory Stage: during thisphase,all testing is done in labs; intention is to find
antigensthat could prevent/treat disease
• Pre-clinicalstage: Candidate vaccines from the exploratory stageusedon animal
subjects to assessresponse;idea is to get a good picture of how living thingswill
react to the vaccine
• Assuming candidate vaccine makesit throughthe pre-clinical stage, the company
mustapply for an InvestigationalNew Drug (IND)application to the FDA; approval
allows clinical trials in human subjects
ClinicalTrials
• Phase I: Very few human subjectsare given the candidate vaccine, with an
emphasison determiningsafety
• Phase II: At thisstage, more subjectsare broughtin to test the vaccine’s safety and
immunogenicity (ability to trigger an immuneresponse– good!); may also look at
potential schedules,dosing, and delivery methods
• Phase III: Generally, the finalstage of a vaccine trial; involve thousandsof
individualsand assessessafety and efficacy
• If vaccines can makeit throughPhaseIIItrials, developers get to apply for approval
and licensurethroughtheFDA; if approved can distributevaccine to general
population
• Among all drug trials that make it to PhaseI, less than 10% areapproved.
WhathappensonceaCOVID-19vaccineisdeveloped?
• Production, distribution,and storageare key.
• Manufacturersmustbereadytodevelopthevaccines
• Facilitiesmusthavethemeanstostoringthevaccines
• Vaccines would likely not be distributed to the general public untilseveralmonths
after development
• High riskindividuals(i.e.healthcare,incarcerated,olderadults)wouldbeprioritized
becausevaccinationsinthesepopulationswouldofferthehighestbenefit
• Even if logistic challengesare handled, individualscan opt out of receiving the
vaccine
• Herd immunityis onlypossibleif a largeportion of thepopulation is vaccinated!
Thepandemicdoesnot
immediatelyendjustbecausea
vaccineisdeveloped!
• Vaccineefficacyisdeterminedinanexperimentalsetting.Therefore,it
doesnotaccountforlogisticalchallenges,riskofreinfection,etc.
Vaccineefficacyandherdimmunity
What do we know from other vaccines?
• The measlesvaccine is 98%effective. And in order to achieve herd immunity,
approximately a +70%vaccination rate is needed.
• The seasonalflu vaccine efficacy varies between 40-60%.
What about for COVID-19?
• The number of people who would need to be immunized depends on the efficacy of
the vaccine in the general populationand among particular sectors
• Willthevaccinebeas effectivefortheveryyoungand old
• Willconditionslikeobesityeffectefficacity
At this point in time, less than 16 million people would be immune due to infection. We would still
need to wait until 211.5 million more people become immune through infection or vaccination to
reach herd immunity
Out of the ~325 million people that live in the US, it is estimated that 70% will need to either be immune to
COVID-19 (either through infection or vaccination) to achieve herd immunity
Factorsthatmightaffectanindividual’sresponsetoa
vaccine
• Itis unclearhowindividualswillrespondtoCOVID-19vaccines,buthealthconditionsand
otherfactorsmay influenceyourimmunesystem’sreactiontothevaccination.The
importantpointtorememberthough,isthatthesefactorshave historicallyinfluenced
reactionstoothervaccinesaswellandarenotnoveltovaccinesforCOVID-19.Belowarejusta
fewexamplesofsuch factors:
• Obesity:among individualsvaccinatedtoinfluenza, obeseindividualssaw a nearly 2x increase
in riskof influenza compared tothosewho werenormal BMI
• Age: ageof vaccinationmay resultindiffering responses
• Older individualshavebeenobservedwithdiminishedresponsesto vaccinesfor diphtheria,
hepatitisA, hepatitis,etc.
• Comorbidities:comorbiditiessuchas diabetes,celiacdisease,and renal failureinchildrenhave
seenlower responsesto various vaccines
• Otherbehavioralfactors:stress,smoking, and sedentarylifestylesmay resultinpoorer vaccine
responses
WhatmakesCOVID-19vaccinesdifferent?
• Vaccine sponsors areattempting to safelycondense the usual vaccine
developmentprocess (10-15years)into 1-2 years
• PhasesII and III clinicaltrials(whichnormallytakeplaceseparately)now overlap
• COVID-19vaccine development is being fast-tracked via OperationWarpSpeed
(OWS)
• Huge amountsofresourcesfromthefederalgovernment(CDC,NationalInstitutesof
Health,BiomedicalAdvancedResearchand DevelopmentAuthority,and Department
ofDefense)havebeenfunneledtopharmaceuticalcompaniesand researcherslooking
tocreatea safeand effectiveCOVID-19vaccine
IsOperationWarpSpeed(OWS)safe?
• The shortanswer: Yes!
• This sped-up development process presents a financial risk to pharmaceutical
companies rather than a decrease in safety of thevaccine.
• Mostcandidatedrugs and vaccinesareeliminatedthroughthemulti-phasal
developmentprocess
• Thefurther a vaccinemakes itthrough themultiphaseprocess,themore expensiveit
becomestodevelopand testit
• E.g.Stoppinga vaccinecandidateat PhaseIclinicaltrialssaveshugeamounts of money
compared tostopping a vaccineat PhaseIII
• BecauseinOWS thesephases overlap,an ineffectivevaccinemightbestoppedatPhase
IIIwhenundernormalcircumstances,itmightbestoppedin PhaseI/II
• Long-term safety of the vaccine will be continually assessedover time (PhaseIV
clinical trials)
TheprimaryandsecondarypurposeoftheinitialCOVID
vaccine(s),as statedbyDr.Fauci
• ThegoaloftheinitialCOVID-19vaccineswillbetopreventsymptomsin thosewhobecome
infectedwiththecoronavirusratherpreventingtheinfectionentirely.
• Preventingsymptomsisa"primaryendpoint"inthevaccinedevelopmentprocess
• Preventingtheinfectionaltogetherisconsidereda"secondaryendpoint."
• "WhatI wouldsettlefor,and all ofmy colleagueswouldsettlefor,is theprimaryendpointto
preventclinicallyrecognizabledisease… Andthat'swhatwehopehappens,and ifwedo,
thatwillgo a longwaytodiffusingthisverydifficultcrisis”
• Evenifavaccineisn’t abletopreventsomeonefromgettinginfection,ifthevaccinereducestheirchanceof
experiencingsymptoms, youwillhaveultimatelypreventedthemfromgettingseriouslyillordying.
• Withlesspeopleexperiencingseveresymptoms,thecoronaviruswouldposealowerthreattocommunities
andpreventhealthcaresystemsfrombecomingoverloaded
• So justlikewiththe seasonalflu,gettinga vaccinationmay notpreventtheillnessbut
renderit lessserious
WhattypesofCOVID-19vaccinesarebeingdevelopedand
tested?
• Inactivatedvaccines:inactivatedvaccinesarea commonmethodfordesigning/creatinga
vaccine.Thisinvolvesutilizingan inactive(killed)variantofthediseaseofinterestand using
thesimilaritiesbetweenthedead formand “real”formtostimulatean immuneresponse.
Commonexamplesincludeinfluenzaand poliovaccines.
• e.g. VaccinebeingdevelopedbySinovac
• Protein-basedvaccines:thesevaccinesaredesignedbasedonthesurfaceproteinsthat
areontheCOVID-19virus;theseproteinsaregenerallyhowthevirusesarerecognized.
• E.g. Vaccinebeingdeveloped byCanSino Biologics
• Viral-vectorvaccines:thesearenon-replicatingvirusesthatprovideinstructionsin the
formofviralDNA toutilizeyourbody’scellstoproduceCOVID-19proteins.Theseproteins
theninducean immuneresponse
• E.g. VaccinesbeingdevelopedbyUniversityof Oxford and Johnson & Johnson
• Gene-basedvaccines:thesearesimilartoviral-vectorvaccines,butprovidethe
instructionsina differentform(mRNAinsteadofviral DNA)
• E.g. Vaccinesbeingdevelopby BioNTech/Pfizerand Moderna
Gene-basedvaccineswerethefirsttwotoseekFDA
approval
• Gene-basedvaccines carry genetic instructionsto our cells to produce an antigen
that is used to initiatean immuneresponse, justas it would in an actual infection.
• Inthecaseofcoronaviruses,theantigenofinterestis thesurfacespikeproteinthevirus
uses tobindand fusewithhuman cells.
• Ratherthantheproteinbeingsuppliedbythevirus itself, thegeneticmaterialinstructs
ourcellstomakethespikeproteinnecessaryforan antibodyresponse
• The approach taken is similar to that usedin live-attenuatedvaccines for diseases
like measles,mumps, and rubella
• Weakenedvirusesincorporatetheirgeneticinstructionsintohostcells,causingthe
bodyto produceviral copiesthatelicitan effectiveantibodyresponse(B-and T-cell
responses)
• In thecaseofmRNA vaccines—scientistsinsertgeneticinstructionsfromthepathogen
ofinteresttoproduceantigensin hostcellsinsteadofutilizinga virus
Somecautioushope
• TheFDA had previouslyindicatedthatitwouldbewillingtoapprovea vaccineforusethat
was just50%effective
• On November 9th, Pfizer announced theirvaccinewas up to94.5%effective inpreventing
COVID-19.
• On November 15th, Moderna announced a vaccinethatis95%effective
• Bothofthesevaccinesrankrelativelyhigh ineffectivenesscomparedtootherwidelyused
vaccines.Forexample:
• 1 doseof themeaslesvaccineis93% effective.2 doses(recommended)increasesthe
effectivenessto97%
• For theSeasonal Flu vaccine,theeffectivenessusually variesbecauseof thedifferencesinstrains
thatarebeingtransmittedeachyear,buttheyhaveranged between10-60% effective2004-2019
• Mostseasonalfluvaccinesare40-60%effectivethough.
• Thereare stillquestionsabout thesevaccines thatneedtobe exploredand
researched!
Pfizer'sandModerna’sgene-basedvaccines
• Bothvaccinesdelivera moleculeknownas messengerRNA, ormRNA.WhilemRNA-based
vaccinesseemlikenoveltechniques,theresearchtodevelopmRNA vaccinesbeganmany
years beforethecurrentpandemic
• Currently,no other vaccinesutilizemRNA
• Pfizer'sand Moderna'svaccineshavesimilarresults (>90%effectivenessinpreventing
symptoms)and usethesame techniquetoactivatethebody'simmunesystem.
• Thenearly identicaleffectivenessof thevaccinesfrom Pfizer and Moderna validatestheuseof
mRNA as avaccination technique.
• Bothvaccinesare givenintwo doseswith3-4 weeksbetweeneachdose.
• Thevaccineshavebeengenerallywelltoleratedwithfewsideeffectsamongthosewho
havealreadyreceivedthem
• Sideeffectsreportedthusfar aremild and short lived– similartoother seasonal flu vaccines
DetailsaboutPfizer’sstudy
•
ThePfizer trialinvolvedmorethan43,000participants(witha 1:1randomizationtovaccine
orplacebo)and a totalof170confirmedcases ofCOVID-19wereevaluated,with162
observedintheplacebogroup versuseightin thevaccinegroup
• Thetrial isongoing, and recruitmentisnow including a more diversepopulation intermsof age
• AmongUS participantsin thetrial, themajoritywerewhite:
• 5.5% Asian
• 10.1% Black
• 13.1% Hispanic/Latinx
• 1.0% NativeAmerican
• Whatdoes94.5%effectivemean?
• Thismeans thatthosethatreceived thevaccine were 94.5%less likely toexhibitsymptoms
• ItdoesNOTmeanthatthevaccinereducestransmissibility
• Otherdetailsregardinghavenotbeenreleasedyet,butpublicationswillberollingoutsoon
FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine
1. Howlongwillthevaccineprotect
patients?Thoseinthetrialgottwo
shotsbetweenJulyandOctober.How
longwillthe protectionlastandhow
oftenwill peopleneedboosters?
Protectionappearstobefor twoor
threemonths- willitprotectsix
monthsorayear?
2. Willitprotectthemostvulnerable?
Pfizerdidnotdisclosewhat
percentageofitstrialvolunteersarein
thegroupsmostlikelytobe
hospitalizedortodieofCOVID-19—
includingpeople65andolderand
thosewithdiabetesorobesity.
• Somevaccines,particularlyforinfluenza,
mayfailtoprotecttheelderlythough
theyprotectyoungerpeople.
• There’spresentlynowaytoknow
whetherthePfizervaccinewillbethe
bestoverallorforspecificagegroups
FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine
3. Can thevaccine berolledouttothe
populationatlarge withoutmajor
logisticissues?ThePfizervaccine,unlike
othersinlate-stagetesting,mustbekept
supercooled,ondryicearound100
degreesbelowzero,fromthetimeitis
produceduntilafewdaysbeforeitis
injected.
• Whatchallengeswillfacecoldchaindelivery
ofthevaccinetodifferenttypesoflocales?
4. CouldthePfizerstudyexpeditefuture
vaccines? A smallnumber oftrial
participantsreceivedthevaccine,butstill
gotsickand producedlowerlevelsof
antibodiesthanthevaccinatedindividuals
whoremainedwell.
• Bloodstudiesofthosepeoplewouldhelp
scientistslearnwhetherthereisa“correlateof
protection”forCOVID-19—alevelof
antibodiesthatcanpredictwhethersomeone
isprotectedfromthedisease.
• Thatknowledgecoulddeterminewhether
othervaccinesunderproductionarelikelyto
beeffectivewithoutnecessarilyhavingtotest
themontensofthousandsofpeople.
FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine
5. Could a prematureannouncement hurt future vaccines? The Pfizer vaccine
may not be the bestfor all age groups.But if the FDA approves it quickly, that
may makeit harder for manufacturersof other vaccines to recruit participants
for clinical trials.
• People may decline outofconcerntheycouldgeta placeboornot beabletotakean
existingvaccinethatmay provepartially,ifnotwhollyeffective.
TheModernavaccine
• In Moderna's trial of 30,000participants, half of study participants (15,000)were
given a placebo whereasthe other half were given the vaccine.
• Overseveralmonths,90ofthosewhoreceiveda placebodevelopedCOVID-19,with11
developingsevereformsofthedisease.
• OnlyfiveparticipantswhoreceivedthevaccinedevelopedCOVID-19
• Moderna’s vaccineappearsto have also been protective in important subsets
of participants — the elderly and people from racial and ethnic minority
groups:
• The30,000-persontrialincluded11,000participantsfromcommunitiesofcolor,making
up 37%ofthetotalstudypopulation.
• Italsoincludedmorethan7,000participantsovertheage of65and >5,000people
youngerthan65whohavechronichealthconditionsthatputthemathigh riskof
sufferingfroma severeinfection( e.g., diabetes,severeobesityand heartdisease).
WhatwedonotknowaboutthePfizer/Modernavaccines
• For both vaccines, we do not yet know how effective the vaccine is in the long-
term… we will not know how long the immunity offeredby either of thesevaccines
last untilthey begin to wear off.
• Thishasimplicationsfor:
• Howfrequentlypeoplemight havetogetboostersshotstomaintainimmunity
• Theongoingrisk oftransmissionofSARS-CoV-2
• Itisnot yetknown whetherthevaccinejust preventspeoplefrom becoming severelyill,or if
itpreventsthemfrom spreading thevirus
Moderna’s vaccinehasapracticaladvantageoverPfizer's
• Pfizer's vaccine needs to be kept at -75° Celsius.
• Moderna's vaccine can be kept at -20° Celsius.
• Othervaccines,such as theoneagainstchickenpox,needtobekeptat that
temperature.
• Most doctors' offices and pharmacieshave freezers that are able to maintain the
-20° Celsiustemperatureneeded to storeModerna’s vaccine
• Furthermore,Moderna's vaccine can stored for up to 30 days in the refrigerator,
whereasPfizer's vaccine can last only five days in the refrigerator.
• Currently, we don’t know the extent to which thesevaccines will prevent
asymptomaticinfection. But we do know that becausethey reduce symptomatic
infection, they shouldalso reduce deaths, hospitalizations, and intubationsin those
who becomeinfected.
• The trials were conducted with symptomaticendpoints, rather than testing
everyone every day or every few days to look for infection, to save resources(let's
say 30,000participants, tested every threedays over a courseof two months- that’s
600,000PCR teststhat need to be run).
• The hope is that once approved and with widespread use, we will see
epidemiologic evidence to showreduction in transmission as well as reduction in
symptomatic disease.
WillthePfizerandModernavaccinesprevent
transmission?Wewillhavetowaittofindout
Adenovirusvaccines
TheOxfordUniversity-AstraZeneca vaccineandothers*
• ModifiedAdenovirusesdo not causeillness and are effective carriers of antigens
for infectiousdiseases
• Adenoviralvectorsactas vaccinecarrierswhenarmed withforeigngenesand canelicit
specificantibodyand T-cellresponses.
• Adenovirus-basedvaccines generally havefew side-effects,likeother vaccines.
• These types of vaccinesareused against a wide varietyof pathogen
including Mycobacterium tuberculosis,human immunodeficiency virus(HIV),
and Plasmodiumfalciparum.
WhatareAdenoviruses?
TheOxford-AstraZenecavaccine
• The resultsreported on November 23rd fromOxford-AstraZeneca come from their
PhaseIIItrials involving 23,000participants in Britain and Brazil.
• The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine usesan adenovirus(a weakened versionof a
common cold virus)with genetic material for the characteristic spikeprotein of the
coronavirusthat causesCOVID-19.
• Like the other vaccines discussed thusfar, the spikeprotein from the vaccine
primes the immunesystemto attack the coronavirusif it later infects the body.
• Theweakenedversionofthevirusused in thevaccinehas beengeneticallychangedso
thatthevirus is unabletoreplicateorcauseillnessin humans.
TheOxford-AstraZenecavaccine
• A half-doseof the vaccine followed by a fulldose at least one monthlater was found
to be 90%effective.
• A secondregimenusingtwofulldosesonemonthapartwas 62%effective.
• Thecombinedresultsshowedan averageefficacyrateof70%.
• Questionshavebeenraisedaboutthehalfdoseregimewhichwasnotintentionaland
turnedouttobeserendipity
• However, the extent to which the vaccine inducesstrong antibody and T cell
immuneresponsesamong elderly populationshasyet to be determined because
the half dose-fulldose regimen was not tested in older participants.
• Adenoviralvaccines can be stored in standard refrigerators,rather than needing
freezers.
• TheAstraZeneca-Oxfordvaccinecan betransportedunder“normalrefrigerated
conditions”of36°Fto46°F
• The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines
as well.
• AstraZeneca,whichhaspledgednottomake aprofitonthevaccineduringthepandemic,
has reachedagreementswithgovernmentsand internationalhealthorganizationsthat
putitspriceatabout$2.50a dose.
• Pfizer’svaccinecostsaround$20a dosewhileModerna’svaccinecostsbetween$15to
$25a dosebasedontheagreementsbetweenthecompaniesand theU.S. government
Advantagesofadenovirusvaccines
LikelyvaccinerolloutaccordingtoDrFauci
• Several vaccine candidates are in late-stageclinical trials in theU.S. and safety and
efficacy data could be ready for review by the end of the year.
• That would make initial dosesof the vaccine available to frontlineworkers around
the end of 2020and beginningof 2021and pave theway for widespread
distribution several monthsinto 2021.
• Mitigation strategies such as wearing facemasks, social distancing and
avoiding largecrowds will still be important in preventing the spreadof
infection for “quite some time.”
Vaccinescurrentlyunderdevelopment
WhatisthecurrentstatusofCOVID-19vaccinesfor
children?
• Children’simmunesystems differfromadolescents.
• Therearecertainvaccinesthatwork betterinchildrenthanadults. And thereare certain
vaccinesthatwork lesswellinchildrencompared toadults.
• So far,Pfizer’sCOVID-19vaccinehas onlybeenfullytestedonadults.
• In September,Pfizer beganincluding teenagersas young as 16 inan ongoing trial,and last
month theybegana new trialincludingchildrenas young as 12. Buttheseresultshaveyettobe
shared.
• Children(age18and under)accountfor1/5ofthepopulationoftheU.S. (~73million
individuals).Additionally,3.7millioninfantsareborneachyear.Thispoolofunvaccinated
peoplewouldstillbeatriskforCOVID-19diseaseand couldcontributetoitstransmissionis
significantand herdimmunitycannotbeestablishedwithoutvaccinatingthem.
SocialandCulturalIssuesthat
InfluenceVaccineAcceptance
Andtheexaggeratedexpectationswithrespecttoreturningtolifeasusual
Vaccineissuesthatwillneedtobefacedsoonerrather
thanlater
CommonReasonsforVaccine
Hesitancy
• Littletrustinthegovernmentalagencies
whichdeclareitsafe
• Conspiracytheoriesabound
• “Rushedvaccinehasnotprovensafe–Iwill
wait”
• Concernaboutpotentialsideeffects
• “Vaccineacquiredimmunityisnotas
efficaciousasinfectionacquiredimmunity”
• “Diseaseisnobigdealforpeoplelikeme,
vaccineisanadditionalrisk”
• “Vaccineagainstmybeliefsystem”
ExaggeratedExpectationsfor
COVID-19Vaccines
• “Onceavaccineisintroducedthepublicwill
nolongerhavetowearmasksorsocial
distancewithinafewmonths”
• “Herdimmunitywillbereachedveryquickly”
• “ThevaccinewillpreventallcasesofCOVID-
19”
• “Thevaccinewillprovidelifetimeimmunity”
Whatfactorsleadtovaccinehesitancy
• Trustand safety are the two major issuesgiven the amountof mis-and
disinformationcirculating in our highly networked society
Trust
• Distrust in the motives of vaccine
manufacturers
• Distrust in the federal agencies responsible
for regulating the vaccine industry and the
fast-track warp speed imperative of the
government
• Distrust in public health experts promoting
vaccination
• Other vaccines that have been controversial
and promoted by the same public health
stakeholders
Safety
• Short-term and long-term side effects
• How long will it take to know if there are
side effects
• Safety concerns for the very young and old
• Differences in opinion about the relative
effectiveness of “ natural” vs vaccine
acquired immunity and disease “
resistance”
Vaccineskepticismandsuspicionaremajorchallenges in
reachingherdimmunity
• The ability to reach 70-80%herd immunity to control COVID-19is underminedby
both:
• Skepticismaboutmedicalauthorityand expertise.Thishas beenmorecommon
amongTrumpsupporterseventhoughthepresidenthas beenpromotingvaccinesas
thesooncomingmagic bullet.Thisis paradoxical.
• Suspicion thattheadministrationis cuttingcornersonsafetytorush thrua vaccinefor
politicalreasons(morecommonamongDemocrats).
Whatdo recentsurveystellusaboutvaccine
acceptancegloballyandlocally?
Politics matter
Internationalvaccinesurveys
Bearinmind thatforinternationaltraveltosafelyresume
globalherdimmunitywillberequired
Internationalvaccinesurveys
• Inasurveyofover13,000peoplefrom19
countriespublishedinNatureMedicine,
nearly72%ofrespondentssaidthey
wouldbeveryorsomewhatlikelytotake
avaccineifitbecamegenerallyavailable.
• Meanwhile,14%ofrespondentssaidthey
wouldbeveryorsomewhatlikelytonot
takeavaccineandanother14%saidthey
werestillunsure.
• The study included 13,426randomly selected individualsacross 19 countries, most
with a highCOVID-19burden.
• Surveyrespondentsrepresenteda randomsampleofthepopulationsof19countries
thatcomprisearound55%oftheglobalpopulation.
• Of these, 71.5%responded that they would take a vaccine if it were proven safeand
effective, and 61.4%said that they would get vaccinated if their employer
recommended it
Resultsofalargeinternationalstudyofpotential
acceptanceofaCOVID-19vaccine
• However, therewas a highof heterogeneity in responsesbetween countries,which
could be related to trustin one’sgovernment
• Countrieswhereacceptanceexceeded80%tendedtobeAsian nationswithstrong
trustin centralgovernments(China,SouthKoreaand Singapore)
• RespondentsfromPolandreportedthehighestproportionofnegativeresponses:
27.3%
• Russianrespondentsgavethelowestproportionofpositiveresponses:54.9%.
• Untiltheoriginsofwidevariationinwillingnesstoaccepta COVID-19vaccineare
addressed,differencesinvaccinecoveragebetweencountriescoulddelayglobal
controlofthe pandemic
• Note: Reporting one’s willingness to get vaccinatedmight not be necessarilya
good predictor of acceptance,as vaccinedecisions aremultifactorial and can
change overtime.
Resultsofalargeinternationalstudyofpotential
acceptanceofaCOVID-19vaccine
Vaccineintentionmaywellvarybyrateofvaccine
effectiveness:Indonesiasurveyasanexample
• Among 1,359respondents,93.3%of respondents(1,268/1,359)stated that they
would like to be vaccinated if a vaccine was 95%effective.
• The rate of acceptance decreased to 67.0%(911/1,359)if the vaccine was only 50%
effective.
USAVaccineSurveys
Olderandmorerecentsurveystoshowchangeovertime
The AP-NORC Survey, May 2020
TheAssociatedPress-NORCCenterforPublicAffairsResearch
APPoll,May2020
• Ifavaccineagainstcoronavirus
becomesavailabletothepublic:
• 49%saytheyplantogetvaccinated
• 20%saytheywillnot.
• Another31%arenotsure.
Newsweeksurvey,June2020
HowmanyAmericanswouldbewillingtotakeaCOVID-19vaccine?
• 30%of respondentsagreed with the conspiratorialsentimentthat “the dangers of
vaccines are being hidden by the medical establishment.”
• Agreementwiththestatementvariedbyraceand ethnicity:25%ofwhitepeopleagreed
comparedwith29%ofLatinosand 49%ofBlackpeople.
• 25%ofrespondentsagreedwiththestatement“thecoronavirusis beingused toforcea
dangerousand unnecessaryvaccineonAmericans.”Only22%ofwhitepeopleand
Latinosagreed while42%ofBlackpeopledid.
• “If a vaccine for COVID-19becomesavailable, would you be willing to take it?”
• Nearlytwo-thirdsofrespondentsindicatedtheywouldbewillingtotakeit.
• Butraceand ethnicitymattered:While70%ofwhitepeopleagreed,only62%ofLatinos
and 44%ofBlackpeopledid.
WillingnessofAmericanstobecomevaccinated
NewerUSAVaccineSurveys
Gallop
poll in
October
Gallop
poll in
October
PewPollVaccineAcceptance:November20,2020
• AsofNovember20,2020,the
PewResearchCenter
reportedthatthemajorityof
Americanssaytheywould
receiveaCOVID-19vaccine,
withacceptanceofthe
vaccinehavingincreased
amongthemostpopulation
groups.
PewPollVaccineAcceptance:November20,2020
• However,many
Americanswouldstillbe
uncomfortabletobe
amongthefirstto
receivethevaccine,a
signthatthereisstill
somehesitancy
towardsreceivingit.
MinorityPopulations:distrustofmedicalinterventions
mayaffectvaccineacceptance
• Minoritypopulations,especiallyBlackand AfricanAmericans,arelargelyunderrepresented
in severalvaccinestudies.
• Historicallyand presently,patternsofblatantand systemicracismhavesoweddiscordand
mistrustbetweenminoritypopulationsand medicalresearchcommunities:
• TuskegeeStudy:In 1932, federal organizations (includingthePublicHealthService)began
working witha population of blackmen toseethelong-term effectsand outcomes from syphilis
• Participantswerenotconsented;instead,beingtoldtheywerebeingtreatedfor“badblood”
• Treatmentwaswithheld;doctorsweretoldnottotreatmeninthestudyforsyphilis
• Evenin1947,whenpenicillinwasshowntobeaneffectivetreatment,meninthestudywerenot
offeredanytreatment
• Falseracial beliefsaboutbiological differenceshavebeenshown toaffect treatmentoutcomes
 potentiallypropagating discriminatory/differentialtreatment
Vaccineintention
• AUCsurveyof1,056peopleinMayfound
thatonly25%ofBlacksand37%of
HispanicswerewillingtoreceiveaCOVID-
19vaccine,and32%and37%
respectivelywereunsu.re
NovemberpollfindsmajorityofCanadiansopento
gettingCOVIDvaccine,butmanywanttowait
• A new Ipsos/Radio-Canada poll hasfound that mostCanadians intend to get
vaccinated againstCOVID-19, but that many would prefer to wait at leasta month
or two after a vaccine is approved
• Theinternetpollsurveyed3001peopleovertheage of18acrossthecountrybetween
November20th and November25th.
• Of thosewho responded, 64%said they would probably or certainly get vaccinated,
while16%said they would not.
• 20%oftheserespondentssaid theywereunsureas towhethertheywouldget
vaccinated.
• Of thosewho said they would get vaccinated, only 36%said they'd get vaccinated
as soonas possible. Another 38%said they’d wait one or two months,and 11%
were undecided as to when.
TheUSAisnottheonlycountrywhere vaccinehesitancy
appearstobeaproblematthemoment
• FrenchoppositiontotheCOVID-19
vaccinegrowsasgovernmentunveils
campaign
• ApoolconductedbytheweeklyJournal
duDimancheonNovember28th found
that59%ofFrenchpeopledidnotplanto
getinoculatedagainstthecoronavirus.
• “Beforeweimmunizeourselvesagainst
thevirus,weneedtoimmunizeourselves
againstfear,"(healthministerOlivier
VĂŠranreferringtotheriseinreticenceof
theFrenchpeople)
Trustisessential forvaccine
acceptance
Whothepublictrusts caninfluence vaccine
uptake
Hesitancytoreceivefirstgenerationvaccines
*Fromasurveyof1,075 U.S.adults,Sept.24-27, 2020
How likely would you be to take a first generation COVID-
19 vaccine if…
(Very/somewhat
likely)
… your doctor said it was safe 62%**
… the cost were completely covered by insurance 56%
… the FDA said it was safe 54%
… you could get it easily, from a walk-in or drive-thru clinic 50%
… you were paid $100 to receive the vaccine 44%
… you had to make an appointment and get it at a hospital 37%
… it cost you $100 26%**
… President Trump said it was safe 19%**
Trustissuesmayaffectlowertierhealthcareworkers
willingnesstoacceptvaccines
• ‘If There’s No Trust, There’ll Be More Hesitancy’: Nursing Homes Must
OvercomeStaff Skepticism of COVID Vaccine” (SkilledNursing News
12/2/2020)
• Thismay especially be the case if the healthcare worker is from a minority group
that may havesuspicionsthat thosewho are firstto receive vaccination are guinea
pigs to test the vaccine’s safety and efficacy.
• In order to get buy-in from thisgroup that is at greatest riskto COVID-19,they must
feel that they have a safety net in the event that they fall ill from taking the vaccine
and are unableto come to work and/or get a paycheck.
Transparencyaboutsideeffects
ofvaccinesisatrustissue
• Whenyou experiencerelativelymild side effectsfrom a vaccine,thismeans thatyour
immunesystemhasstarteda responsetothevaccine. Thisis whatyouwanttohappen!
• Publichealthofficialsand vaccinedevelopersneedtowarnpeoplethatthecoronavirus vaccines
may havesideeffectsthatmimicthesymptomsofa mild COVID-19disease.
• By beingtransparent about thepossiblediscomforts peoplemay experience,theywillbelesslikelyto be
scaredaway from gettingthesecond scheduleddoseof thevaccines
• Thesesideeffectsarelikelytoinclude:
• Sorearm, musclepain, chills,headache,fatigue,and fever.
• Oneshould plan for a day of restand recuperationafter gettingvaccinated
• Thesesymptomshaveonlylastedforadayinthethreevaccinessoontobeavailabletothepublic.
• As withothervaccines,thepublic needsto be encouragedtothinkof short-termvaccineside
effectsas evidencethatthevaccineis workingas intendedand of sideeffectsas a “positive
response”insteadof an “adversereaction.”
Vaccinesideeffectsasdemonstrationsofefficacy
Whataboutreactionsinpeoplewithsevereallergies?
• At the momentit is recommended that anyonewith a history of severe allergic
reactions to a vaccine, medicine or food, or thosewho carry an adrenaline
autoinjector pen, should wait to get Pfizer’s vaccine.
• The warning came after two NHS workers in the UK had allergic reactions on
Tuesday after receiving the vaccine
• BothNHS workershavea historyofseriousallergiesand carryadrenalinepensaround
withthem
Whataboutreactionsinpeoplewithsevereallergies?
• They are understoodto havehad an anaphylactoid reaction, which tends to involve
a skinrash, breathlessnessand sometimesa drop in blood pressure. Thisis not the
sameas anaphylaxiswhich can be fatal
• Reactionslikethisareuncommonformostpeoplewithminorallergies
• Theydooccurwithothervaccines,includingtheannualinfluenzavaccines
• Thesereactionsarealso shortlivedand do not resultinlongtermconsequences
• As with other vaccinations, individualswith a history of severeallergiesshould
ALWAYS consult with their medical provider/physicianbeforereceiving ANY
vaccine. If you and your medical provider decide that you shouldreceive the
vaccine, it can be administered under closesupervision to mitigateany potential
reactions you may experience as a result.
Whathappensifnotenoughpeople
nationallytakethevaccine?
Whathappensifmanypeopleinsomeregionstakeitbutinotherregionsasmaller
percentage agreetodoso?
• In 2019, beforethe pandemic hit, the World HealthOrganization (WHO)listed
vaccine hesitancy as one of the top 10 globalhealththreats.
• Thosewho hold off on getting the eventualCOVID-19vaccine pose a threat to
developing herd immunity to the virus.
• Vaccine hesitancy is a persistentproblem fostered by both mistrustin one’s
governmentand misinformation propagated by stakeholderswith a variety of self -
serving agendas.
• SomeofthesesamestakeholdershavechallengedCOVID-19policieslinkedtomask
wearingand shutdownsas waysofmitigatingthevirus.
• Mis/disinformationdoes not only reinforce the views of anti-vaxxers but leads many
othersto also become vaccine hesitantwhich will ultimately delay herd immunity.
Vaccinehesitancyisaglobalpublichealthproblemthat
mustbeaddressed
Communityvariationinratesofvaccination
• If the membersof a particularcommunity chose not to vaccinate,then the
entirecommunity is vulnerableto an epidemic (thinkof a pandemic, but only
contained to that specific community/neighboringcommunities).
• Once a critical massof infected individualsis reached in one locale, it enablesa
contagion to spread throughoutthe rest of the population
• Thisis trueevenifa significantfractionoftheoverall populationis vaccinated.
• Remember, if and when a community has reachedherd immunity, there will
still be a proportion of people in that community that will be susceptible to
infection.
• Weneedtothinkofcommunitiesas fluid.As isolatedas a communitymay be, there
willstillalways be somelevelof travelin and out of thatcommunitywhich would
allowfortransmissionofthevirusfroma localethatchoosesnottovaccinatetolocales
thatdo receivevaccinations.
Whenenoughpeoplebecomevaccinated,thenumberof
peoplethediseasecanspreadtoislimited
Whatisthegovernmentsroleininsuringvaccination
coverage?Anticipatesomepoliticalcontroversy.
• In orderto reachherd immunity, it is likely that vaccineswill needto be
mandated for workplacesand schools.
• As is thecaseofmeasles,thosewhorefusetogettheirchildrenvaccinatedforreligious
reasonsmay findtheirchildrenarebarredfrompublicschools,day care,other
childcarefacilities,etc.
• However, thereis a difference between COVID-19and measles.
• Measlesis highlyinfectiousand resultsin seriousdiseasefora significant percentageof
children.
• Althoughthelikelihoodwillchildrenexperiencea severeillnessfromCOVID-19is
relativelylowerthanmeasles,theycan stilltransmittheinfectiontoothervulnerable
populations(teachers/schoolfaculty)whomay experienceseveredisease.
Employercitizenshipandcivilliberties
• If the governmentdoes not mandatevaccination , it may be left up to employersto
mandate vaccination (similar to howsomeemployers havemandated mask
wearing indoors and physicaldistancing).
• Thiswill be a major headachefor businessowners and humanrelations
departments who will be left with a decision as to whether to mandate or
encouragevaccination for COVID-19.
• Iftheymandatevaccinations(oncedeemedsafeand available),thenbylawtheymust
allowforexemptions
• However,thosewhochosenot vaccinatedue to someconvictionwill likelybe
requiredto protectotheremployeesby alternativemeans likecontinuedmask
wearing and physicaldistancingfor sometimeinto thefutureuntilvaccination is
no longerrequiredto preventtransmission.
Queriesaboutvaccines
• Vaccines are not 100%effective, buttwo of the vaccines under developmentfor
COVID-10 have reported that they are 95%effective in preventing severeCOVID-19.
• So,ifyouarevaccinateditis highlyunlikelyyou willget severeCOVID-19overthenext6
monthsorperhapslonger(thedurationofefficacyremainstobeseen).
• It is possibleto be re-infected with COVID-19– rare but possible.
• It takes time for vaccines to work: It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build
immunity after vaccination. That meansit’s possiblea person could be infected
with the virusthat causesCOVID-19justbeforeor justafter vaccination and get sick.
Thisis becausethe vaccine hasnot had enoughtime to provide protection.
IfIgetvaccinated,canIstillgetCOVID-19?
WillthosewhohavealreadyhadCOVID-19beencouraged
togetvaccinated?
• It is “very likely” that adults who have recovered from COVID-19will be encouraged
to take the vaccine.
• The reason is becausethe duration of protection from someonewho has already
been infected is unknown. We do not yet know how long protection will last in
general and for specific categories of people
• Factorsthatmightinfluencedurationofimmunityincludethestateofperson’shealth,
whethertheyweresymptomaticvs asymptomatic,and howsevertheirillnesswas.
• Untilweknowforcertain,vaccinationwillmostlikelyberecommended.
• Some recovered COVID-19patients were among the participants in the Moderna
trial.
IfIgetthevaccine,howwillIknowwhether Ihave thediseaseifI
amexposedtosomeonewhohascomedownwithit? WillItest
positivejustbecauseIhavebeenvaccinated?
• If you areexperiencing symptoms consistent with COVID-19, you will be
administereda diagnostic test such as a PCR or antigen test.
• Neitherofthesetestslookforantibodiestothevirus
• Thesetypesoftestsdeterminewhetheryouhavean activeinfectionbydetecting
proteinsthatareexpressedbythevirus orbydetectingthegeneticmaterialfromthe
virus.
• COVID-19 vaccinesdo not contain the virus that causesthe diseaseand will
thereforenot cause you to test positive on COVID-19 viraltests.
• Thesevaccinescauseyourimmunesystemtoproduceantibodiestothevirus.
• IfyouhavebeenvaccinatedforthevirusthatcausesCOVID-19,youwilllatertest
positivevia an antibodytest.
• YES
• Getting vaccinated for COVID-19will not mean theend of wearing face masksin
public places, physicaldistancing or frequenthand-washingto prevent the spread
of COVID-19.
• Thisis duetothefactthatthevaccinesmay notentirelypreventCOVID-19infection,so
thereis a chanceyou may stillbeabletogetCOVID-19and spread ittoothersevenafter
vaccination.
AftergettingvaccinatedwillIstillhavetowearamask?
Soberingscenariorelatedtotheimpactof vaccines
takingaccountthecurrentinfectionrates
• At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about200,000confirmednew infections
per day), a vaccine that is 95%effective — distributedat the expected pace — would
stillleave a terrible toll in thesix monthsafter it was introduced. Almost10 million
or so Americanswould contract the virus, and more than 160,000would die.
• Thisis far worse than the toll in an alternate universein which the vaccine was only
50%effective, butthe U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its current level in early
September (about35,000new daily cases). In that scenario, thedeath toll in the
next six monthswould be kept to about60,000.
• No vaccine can eliminatea pandemic immediately,justas no fire hosecan put out a
forestfire. Whilethe vaccine is being distributed, the viruscontinuesto do damage.
“Bluntly stated, we’ll get outof thispandemic faster if we give the vaccine lesswork
to do.”
Weneedtogetthecasenumberdown,notjustwaitforthe
vaccinetobeamagicbullet,ifwewanttogetbackto
normalanytimesoon
COVID-19,theSeasonalFlu,and
Vaccinations
COVID-19andtheSeasonalFlu
• The seasonalflu caused an estimated400,000hospitalizationsand 22,000deaths in
the US during the lastflu season, according to theCDC.
• Both the flu and COVID-19have many of thesamesymptoms.
• OnesymptomthatdifferentiatesflufromCOVID-19is lossoftasteorsmell,especially
smell
• Ifyouloseyoursenseofsmell, geta COVID-19 testas soon as possible.
• It is possibleto haveCOVID-19and the flu at thesametime.
• For your own safety and to keephospitals from being overwhelmed,pleaseget
a flu vaccination NOW and a COVID-19 vaccination as soon as it becomes
available.
ShouldIgetaseasonalfluvaccineifIhavenotdoneso?
Yes!Forfourgoodreasons:
1. It is possibleto getthe“flu”and COVID-19at thesametimeand thiswould increase
theseverityof your illness.
2. As thecoronaviruscontinuestospread acrossthecountry,doctorssay it'smore
importantthaneverto build up herdimmunity forstrainsof “flu.”
• Thisprotectstheelderly and othervulnerable people .
3. It is veryimportantto protectyourselffromtheinfluenza virus and not put more
pressureon thehealthsystemwiththeimpending casesof coronavirus.
• Thelastthingtheyneed isthisdouble burden.
• Thebest timetogetaseasonal influenza vaccine ismid September tomid October
4. Cross–protectionat somelevelis a possibilitythatis presentlybeing investigated
for severaldifferentvaccines.Thishasnot yet beendemonstrated forCOVID-19,
but crossprotection hasbeen documentedfor otherdiseases.
Doesgettingaflushotmakeyoutemporarilymore
susceptibletoCOVID-19
• Does receiving a flu vaccine lower your immunity, making you briefly more
susceptibleto catching COVID-19?
• Probablynot,there'sverylittlescientificbasisthatgettinga flu shotwilltemporarily
weakenyourimmunesystem.
• Yourimmunesystemencountersand reactstomultiplepathogensall thetime,so itis
highlyunlikelythatreactingtoonevaccinewillputyouat greaterrisk toinfectionfrom
otherpathogens.
VaccineAccessibility
Pragmaticissuesrelatedtovaccinecoverage:
• Will COVID-19vaccines be free or affordable?
• Will insurance cover it?
• Will vaccines be easy to access?
• Ifprovidedoutsidea clinic,willtheybeprovidedinplaces thatall segmentsofthe
populationfeelcomfortablevisiting?
• Willtheybegivenbypeoplewhoare trusted?
HowdoIestimate whatpositionIammostlikelytohave
wheninlineforaCOVID-19vaccination?
• The New York Tines in conjunctionwith the Surgo Foundation and Ariadne
Labs have created a vaccine tool to calculate thenumber of people who will need a
vaccine in each stateand county — and where you mightfit in that line.
• You can access thistool at :
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-
timeline.html?referringSource=articleShare
EmergencyCOVID-vaccineapprovalsposeadilemmafor
scientistsfortworeasons
• Once a vaccine is granted emergency approval, thereis pressureon developers to
offer the immunizationto trial participants who received a placebo.
• But if too many people cross over to thevaccine group, the companies mightnot
have enoughdata to establish:
• Long-termoutcomes,such as safety
• Howlongvaccineprotectionlasts
• Whetherthevaccinepreventsinfectionorjustthedisease
EmergencyCOVID-vaccineapprovalsposeadilemmafor
scientistsfortworeasons
• It will become more difficultto recruit volunteersfor thetrails of other new
vaccines.
• Ifa vaccineexiststhathas beenidentifiedas efficaciousin themedia,whywould
someonewanttobepartofa trialofa yettobefullytested vaccineifbeingpartofthat
trialmeanstheycan nottakeanotherprovenefficaciousvaccineuntilthetrialends?
• IfthecomparatorfornewCOVID-19vaccinesbecomesvaccineslikethoseproducedby
Pfizerand Moderna(withefficacyrates>90%)insteadofa placebogroup,itmay be
hardertorecruitthesampleneededtodemonstratethelevelofefficacytheFDA would
demand.*
• In thiscase,drop out of new candidatevaccinesinphaseI and IItrialsmay occur.

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COVID-19 Vaccine Training
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Covid 19-primer-vaccines-12-18 impor

  • 1. COVID-19Vaccines AnoverviewofCOVID-19vaccines,theirdistribution,and acceptanceandhesitation To be updated periodically: Updated 12/16/2020 Mark Nichter, PhD, MPH 1, Joseph Fong, MPH 2, Collin Catalfamo, MPH 2, Amy Lind 2 1 School of Anthropology, University of Arizona 2 Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona
  • 3. Whatisavaccine? • Vaccines help thebody’s immunesystemrecognize and respond to severe diseases • Todo this,a vaccinemusttriggeran immuneresponse,usuallythroughtheuseofan invader’s(virus,bacteria,pathogen)surfaceproteins,weakenedorkilledvariantsofan invader,ora byproductofa disease • Whena vaccinatedindividualis exposedtothedisease,thebodycanmorereadilyand quicklyrespondand neutralizethedisease • Vaccines can prevent and/orreducethe severity of diseasesand areone public health’s most effectivediseaseprevention methods
  • 4. ThepushforCOVID-19vaccines • Given the benefitsof vaccines, global effortsfor a vaccine for COVID-19have been massive • Vaccines could not only protect individuals,but if large enoughpopulations received them, a COVID-19vaccine could protect thosewho were ineligibleto receive a vaccine throughherd immunity
  • 5. ThepushforCOVID-19vaccines • However: • Vaccinesneedtoshowefficacy and effectivenessduringtesting;in otherwords, COVID-19vaccinesneedtoprovethemselveseffectiveatpreventingCOVID-19 infections • Vaccine Efficacy: How good avaccineisat preventing a diseasein a controlled experiment. • Vaccine Effectiveness: Howgood a vaccineisat preventinga diseaseamong thegeneral population • Vaccinetestingmustbe thoroughand transparenttoensuretheriskofreceivinga vaccinedoesnotputindividualsatunnecessaryrisk • Vaccinesneedhighuptaketobeeffective;ifnobodyagreestoreceivea vaccine,itis useless
  • 6. Whatdoesvaccinedevelopmentnormallylooklike? • Vaccine development is very similar to thedevelopment of pharmaceuticals • Extensivetestingis completed throughmultiplephasesto determineefficacy(how well the vaccine protects againstdisease)and safety (whether the benefitsof the vaccine outweightheir potential side effects) • Normally,a vaccine can take 10-15yearsto develop.
  • 7. Pre-humanstagesofvaccinedevelopment • Exploratory Stage: during thisphase,all testing is done in labs; intention is to find antigensthat could prevent/treat disease • Pre-clinicalstage: Candidate vaccines from the exploratory stageusedon animal subjects to assessresponse;idea is to get a good picture of how living thingswill react to the vaccine • Assuming candidate vaccine makesit throughthe pre-clinical stage, the company mustapply for an InvestigationalNew Drug (IND)application to the FDA; approval allows clinical trials in human subjects
  • 8. ClinicalTrials • Phase I: Very few human subjectsare given the candidate vaccine, with an emphasison determiningsafety • Phase II: At thisstage, more subjectsare broughtin to test the vaccine’s safety and immunogenicity (ability to trigger an immuneresponse– good!); may also look at potential schedules,dosing, and delivery methods • Phase III: Generally, the finalstage of a vaccine trial; involve thousandsof individualsand assessessafety and efficacy • If vaccines can makeit throughPhaseIIItrials, developers get to apply for approval and licensurethroughtheFDA; if approved can distributevaccine to general population • Among all drug trials that make it to PhaseI, less than 10% areapproved.
  • 9. WhathappensonceaCOVID-19vaccineisdeveloped? • Production, distribution,and storageare key. • Manufacturersmustbereadytodevelopthevaccines • Facilitiesmusthavethemeanstostoringthevaccines • Vaccines would likely not be distributed to the general public untilseveralmonths after development • High riskindividuals(i.e.healthcare,incarcerated,olderadults)wouldbeprioritized becausevaccinationsinthesepopulationswouldofferthehighestbenefit • Even if logistic challengesare handled, individualscan opt out of receiving the vaccine • Herd immunityis onlypossibleif a largeportion of thepopulation is vaccinated!
  • 11. Vaccineefficacyandherdimmunity What do we know from other vaccines? • The measlesvaccine is 98%effective. And in order to achieve herd immunity, approximately a +70%vaccination rate is needed. • The seasonalflu vaccine efficacy varies between 40-60%. What about for COVID-19? • The number of people who would need to be immunized depends on the efficacy of the vaccine in the general populationand among particular sectors • Willthevaccinebeas effectivefortheveryyoungand old • Willconditionslikeobesityeffectefficacity
  • 12. At this point in time, less than 16 million people would be immune due to infection. We would still need to wait until 211.5 million more people become immune through infection or vaccination to reach herd immunity Out of the ~325 million people that live in the US, it is estimated that 70% will need to either be immune to COVID-19 (either through infection or vaccination) to achieve herd immunity
  • 13. Factorsthatmightaffectanindividual’sresponsetoa vaccine • Itis unclearhowindividualswillrespondtoCOVID-19vaccines,buthealthconditionsand otherfactorsmay influenceyourimmunesystem’sreactiontothevaccination.The importantpointtorememberthough,isthatthesefactorshave historicallyinfluenced reactionstoothervaccinesaswellandarenotnoveltovaccinesforCOVID-19.Belowarejusta fewexamplesofsuch factors: • Obesity:among individualsvaccinatedtoinfluenza, obeseindividualssaw a nearly 2x increase in riskof influenza compared tothosewho werenormal BMI • Age: ageof vaccinationmay resultindiffering responses • Older individualshavebeenobservedwithdiminishedresponsesto vaccinesfor diphtheria, hepatitisA, hepatitis,etc. • Comorbidities:comorbiditiessuchas diabetes,celiacdisease,and renal failureinchildrenhave seenlower responsesto various vaccines • Otherbehavioralfactors:stress,smoking, and sedentarylifestylesmay resultinpoorer vaccine responses
  • 14. WhatmakesCOVID-19vaccinesdifferent? • Vaccine sponsors areattempting to safelycondense the usual vaccine developmentprocess (10-15years)into 1-2 years • PhasesII and III clinicaltrials(whichnormallytakeplaceseparately)now overlap • COVID-19vaccine development is being fast-tracked via OperationWarpSpeed (OWS) • Huge amountsofresourcesfromthefederalgovernment(CDC,NationalInstitutesof Health,BiomedicalAdvancedResearchand DevelopmentAuthority,and Department ofDefense)havebeenfunneledtopharmaceuticalcompaniesand researcherslooking tocreatea safeand effectiveCOVID-19vaccine
  • 15. IsOperationWarpSpeed(OWS)safe? • The shortanswer: Yes! • This sped-up development process presents a financial risk to pharmaceutical companies rather than a decrease in safety of thevaccine. • Mostcandidatedrugs and vaccinesareeliminatedthroughthemulti-phasal developmentprocess • Thefurther a vaccinemakes itthrough themultiphaseprocess,themore expensiveit becomestodevelopand testit • E.g.Stoppinga vaccinecandidateat PhaseIclinicaltrialssaveshugeamounts of money compared tostopping a vaccineat PhaseIII • BecauseinOWS thesephases overlap,an ineffectivevaccinemightbestoppedatPhase IIIwhenundernormalcircumstances,itmightbestoppedin PhaseI/II • Long-term safety of the vaccine will be continually assessedover time (PhaseIV clinical trials)
  • 16. TheprimaryandsecondarypurposeoftheinitialCOVID vaccine(s),as statedbyDr.Fauci • ThegoaloftheinitialCOVID-19vaccineswillbetopreventsymptomsin thosewhobecome infectedwiththecoronavirusratherpreventingtheinfectionentirely. • Preventingsymptomsisa"primaryendpoint"inthevaccinedevelopmentprocess • Preventingtheinfectionaltogetherisconsidereda"secondaryendpoint." • "WhatI wouldsettlefor,and all ofmy colleagueswouldsettlefor,is theprimaryendpointto preventclinicallyrecognizabledisease… Andthat'swhatwehopehappens,and ifwedo, thatwillgo a longwaytodiffusingthisverydifficultcrisis” • Evenifavaccineisn’t abletopreventsomeonefromgettinginfection,ifthevaccinereducestheirchanceof experiencingsymptoms, youwillhaveultimatelypreventedthemfromgettingseriouslyillordying. • Withlesspeopleexperiencingseveresymptoms,thecoronaviruswouldposealowerthreattocommunities andpreventhealthcaresystemsfrombecomingoverloaded • So justlikewiththe seasonalflu,gettinga vaccinationmay notpreventtheillnessbut renderit lessserious
  • 17. WhattypesofCOVID-19vaccinesarebeingdevelopedand tested? • Inactivatedvaccines:inactivatedvaccinesarea commonmethodfordesigning/creatinga vaccine.Thisinvolvesutilizingan inactive(killed)variantofthediseaseofinterestand using thesimilaritiesbetweenthedead formand “real”formtostimulatean immuneresponse. Commonexamplesincludeinfluenzaand poliovaccines. • e.g. VaccinebeingdevelopedbySinovac • Protein-basedvaccines:thesevaccinesaredesignedbasedonthesurfaceproteinsthat areontheCOVID-19virus;theseproteinsaregenerallyhowthevirusesarerecognized. • E.g. Vaccinebeingdeveloped byCanSino Biologics • Viral-vectorvaccines:thesearenon-replicatingvirusesthatprovideinstructionsin the formofviralDNA toutilizeyourbody’scellstoproduceCOVID-19proteins.Theseproteins theninducean immuneresponse • E.g. VaccinesbeingdevelopedbyUniversityof Oxford and Johnson & Johnson • Gene-basedvaccines:thesearesimilartoviral-vectorvaccines,butprovidethe instructionsina differentform(mRNAinsteadofviral DNA) • E.g. Vaccinesbeingdevelopby BioNTech/Pfizerand Moderna
  • 18. Gene-basedvaccineswerethefirsttwotoseekFDA approval • Gene-basedvaccines carry genetic instructionsto our cells to produce an antigen that is used to initiatean immuneresponse, justas it would in an actual infection. • Inthecaseofcoronaviruses,theantigenofinterestis thesurfacespikeproteinthevirus uses tobindand fusewithhuman cells. • Ratherthantheproteinbeingsuppliedbythevirus itself, thegeneticmaterialinstructs ourcellstomakethespikeproteinnecessaryforan antibodyresponse • The approach taken is similar to that usedin live-attenuatedvaccines for diseases like measles,mumps, and rubella • Weakenedvirusesincorporatetheirgeneticinstructionsintohostcells,causingthe bodyto produceviral copiesthatelicitan effectiveantibodyresponse(B-and T-cell responses) • In thecaseofmRNA vaccines—scientistsinsertgeneticinstructionsfromthepathogen ofinteresttoproduceantigensin hostcellsinsteadofutilizinga virus
  • 19. Somecautioushope • TheFDA had previouslyindicatedthatitwouldbewillingtoapprovea vaccineforusethat was just50%effective • On November 9th, Pfizer announced theirvaccinewas up to94.5%effective inpreventing COVID-19. • On November 15th, Moderna announced a vaccinethatis95%effective • Bothofthesevaccinesrankrelativelyhigh ineffectivenesscomparedtootherwidelyused vaccines.Forexample: • 1 doseof themeaslesvaccineis93% effective.2 doses(recommended)increasesthe effectivenessto97% • For theSeasonal Flu vaccine,theeffectivenessusually variesbecauseof thedifferencesinstrains thatarebeingtransmittedeachyear,buttheyhaveranged between10-60% effective2004-2019 • Mostseasonalfluvaccinesare40-60%effectivethough. • Thereare stillquestionsabout thesevaccines thatneedtobe exploredand researched!
  • 20. Pfizer'sandModerna’sgene-basedvaccines • Bothvaccinesdelivera moleculeknownas messengerRNA, ormRNA.WhilemRNA-based vaccinesseemlikenoveltechniques,theresearchtodevelopmRNA vaccinesbeganmany years beforethecurrentpandemic • Currently,no other vaccinesutilizemRNA • Pfizer'sand Moderna'svaccineshavesimilarresults (>90%effectivenessinpreventing symptoms)and usethesame techniquetoactivatethebody'simmunesystem. • Thenearly identicaleffectivenessof thevaccinesfrom Pfizer and Moderna validatestheuseof mRNA as avaccination technique. • Bothvaccinesare givenintwo doseswith3-4 weeksbetweeneachdose. • Thevaccineshavebeengenerallywelltoleratedwithfewsideeffectsamongthosewho havealreadyreceivedthem • Sideeffectsreportedthusfar aremild and short lived– similartoother seasonal flu vaccines
  • 21. DetailsaboutPfizer’sstudy • ThePfizer trialinvolvedmorethan43,000participants(witha 1:1randomizationtovaccine orplacebo)and a totalof170confirmedcases ofCOVID-19wereevaluated,with162 observedintheplacebogroup versuseightin thevaccinegroup • Thetrial isongoing, and recruitmentisnow including a more diversepopulation intermsof age • AmongUS participantsin thetrial, themajoritywerewhite: • 5.5% Asian • 10.1% Black • 13.1% Hispanic/Latinx • 1.0% NativeAmerican • Whatdoes94.5%effectivemean? • Thismeans thatthosethatreceived thevaccine were 94.5%less likely toexhibitsymptoms • ItdoesNOTmeanthatthevaccinereducestransmissibility • Otherdetailsregardinghavenotbeenreleasedyet,butpublicationswillberollingoutsoon
  • 22. FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine 1. Howlongwillthevaccineprotect patients?Thoseinthetrialgottwo shotsbetweenJulyandOctober.How longwillthe protectionlastandhow oftenwill peopleneedboosters? Protectionappearstobefor twoor threemonths- willitprotectsix monthsorayear? 2. Willitprotectthemostvulnerable? Pfizerdidnotdisclosewhat percentageofitstrialvolunteersarein thegroupsmostlikelytobe hospitalizedortodieofCOVID-19— includingpeople65andolderand thosewithdiabetesorobesity. • Somevaccines,particularlyforinfluenza, mayfailtoprotecttheelderlythough theyprotectyoungerpeople. • There’spresentlynowaytoknow whetherthePfizervaccinewillbethe bestoverallorforspecificagegroups
  • 23. FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine 3. Can thevaccine berolledouttothe populationatlarge withoutmajor logisticissues?ThePfizervaccine,unlike othersinlate-stagetesting,mustbekept supercooled,ondryicearound100 degreesbelowzero,fromthetimeitis produceduntilafewdaysbeforeitis injected. • Whatchallengeswillfacecoldchaindelivery ofthevaccinetodifferenttypesoflocales? 4. CouldthePfizerstudyexpeditefuture vaccines? A smallnumber oftrial participantsreceivedthevaccine,butstill gotsickand producedlowerlevelsof antibodiesthanthevaccinatedindividuals whoremainedwell. • Bloodstudiesofthosepeoplewouldhelp scientistslearnwhetherthereisa“correlateof protection”forCOVID-19—alevelof antibodiesthatcanpredictwhethersomeone isprotectedfromthedisease. • Thatknowledgecoulddeterminewhether othervaccinesunderproductionarelikelyto beeffectivewithoutnecessarilyhavingtotest themontensofthousandsofpeople.
  • 24. FivequestionsaboutthePfizervaccine 5. Could a prematureannouncement hurt future vaccines? The Pfizer vaccine may not be the bestfor all age groups.But if the FDA approves it quickly, that may makeit harder for manufacturersof other vaccines to recruit participants for clinical trials. • People may decline outofconcerntheycouldgeta placeboornot beabletotakean existingvaccinethatmay provepartially,ifnotwhollyeffective.
  • 25. TheModernavaccine • In Moderna's trial of 30,000participants, half of study participants (15,000)were given a placebo whereasthe other half were given the vaccine. • Overseveralmonths,90ofthosewhoreceiveda placebodevelopedCOVID-19,with11 developingsevereformsofthedisease. • OnlyfiveparticipantswhoreceivedthevaccinedevelopedCOVID-19 • Moderna’s vaccineappearsto have also been protective in important subsets of participants — the elderly and people from racial and ethnic minority groups: • The30,000-persontrialincluded11,000participantsfromcommunitiesofcolor,making up 37%ofthetotalstudypopulation. • Italsoincludedmorethan7,000participantsovertheage of65and >5,000people youngerthan65whohavechronichealthconditionsthatputthemathigh riskof sufferingfroma severeinfection( e.g., diabetes,severeobesityand heartdisease).
  • 26. WhatwedonotknowaboutthePfizer/Modernavaccines • For both vaccines, we do not yet know how effective the vaccine is in the long- term… we will not know how long the immunity offeredby either of thesevaccines last untilthey begin to wear off. • Thishasimplicationsfor: • Howfrequentlypeoplemight havetogetboostersshotstomaintainimmunity • Theongoingrisk oftransmissionofSARS-CoV-2 • Itisnot yetknown whetherthevaccinejust preventspeoplefrom becoming severelyill,or if itpreventsthemfrom spreading thevirus
  • 27. Moderna’s vaccinehasapracticaladvantageoverPfizer's • Pfizer's vaccine needs to be kept at -75° Celsius. • Moderna's vaccine can be kept at -20° Celsius. • Othervaccines,such as theoneagainstchickenpox,needtobekeptat that temperature. • Most doctors' offices and pharmacieshave freezers that are able to maintain the -20° Celsiustemperatureneeded to storeModerna’s vaccine • Furthermore,Moderna's vaccine can stored for up to 30 days in the refrigerator, whereasPfizer's vaccine can last only five days in the refrigerator.
  • 28. • Currently, we don’t know the extent to which thesevaccines will prevent asymptomaticinfection. But we do know that becausethey reduce symptomatic infection, they shouldalso reduce deaths, hospitalizations, and intubationsin those who becomeinfected. • The trials were conducted with symptomaticendpoints, rather than testing everyone every day or every few days to look for infection, to save resources(let's say 30,000participants, tested every threedays over a courseof two months- that’s 600,000PCR teststhat need to be run). • The hope is that once approved and with widespread use, we will see epidemiologic evidence to showreduction in transmission as well as reduction in symptomatic disease. WillthePfizerandModernavaccinesprevent transmission?Wewillhavetowaittofindout
  • 29.
  • 31. • ModifiedAdenovirusesdo not causeillness and are effective carriers of antigens for infectiousdiseases • Adenoviralvectorsactas vaccinecarrierswhenarmed withforeigngenesand canelicit specificantibodyand T-cellresponses. • Adenovirus-basedvaccines generally havefew side-effects,likeother vaccines. • These types of vaccinesareused against a wide varietyof pathogen including Mycobacterium tuberculosis,human immunodeficiency virus(HIV), and Plasmodiumfalciparum. WhatareAdenoviruses?
  • 32. TheOxford-AstraZenecavaccine • The resultsreported on November 23rd fromOxford-AstraZeneca come from their PhaseIIItrials involving 23,000participants in Britain and Brazil. • The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine usesan adenovirus(a weakened versionof a common cold virus)with genetic material for the characteristic spikeprotein of the coronavirusthat causesCOVID-19. • Like the other vaccines discussed thusfar, the spikeprotein from the vaccine primes the immunesystemto attack the coronavirusif it later infects the body. • Theweakenedversionofthevirusused in thevaccinehas beengeneticallychangedso thatthevirus is unabletoreplicateorcauseillnessin humans.
  • 33. TheOxford-AstraZenecavaccine • A half-doseof the vaccine followed by a fulldose at least one monthlater was found to be 90%effective. • A secondregimenusingtwofulldosesonemonthapartwas 62%effective. • Thecombinedresultsshowedan averageefficacyrateof70%. • Questionshavebeenraisedaboutthehalfdoseregimewhichwasnotintentionaland turnedouttobeserendipity • However, the extent to which the vaccine inducesstrong antibody and T cell immuneresponsesamong elderly populationshasyet to be determined because the half dose-fulldose regimen was not tested in older participants.
  • 34. • Adenoviralvaccines can be stored in standard refrigerators,rather than needing freezers. • TheAstraZeneca-Oxfordvaccinecan betransportedunder“normalrefrigerated conditions”of36°Fto46°F • The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as well. • AstraZeneca,whichhaspledgednottomake aprofitonthevaccineduringthepandemic, has reachedagreementswithgovernmentsand internationalhealthorganizationsthat putitspriceatabout$2.50a dose. • Pfizer’svaccinecostsaround$20a dosewhileModerna’svaccinecostsbetween$15to $25a dosebasedontheagreementsbetweenthecompaniesand theU.S. government Advantagesofadenovirusvaccines
  • 35. LikelyvaccinerolloutaccordingtoDrFauci • Several vaccine candidates are in late-stageclinical trials in theU.S. and safety and efficacy data could be ready for review by the end of the year. • That would make initial dosesof the vaccine available to frontlineworkers around the end of 2020and beginningof 2021and pave theway for widespread distribution several monthsinto 2021. • Mitigation strategies such as wearing facemasks, social distancing and avoiding largecrowds will still be important in preventing the spreadof infection for “quite some time.”
  • 37. WhatisthecurrentstatusofCOVID-19vaccinesfor children? • Children’simmunesystems differfromadolescents. • Therearecertainvaccinesthatwork betterinchildrenthanadults. And thereare certain vaccinesthatwork lesswellinchildrencompared toadults. • So far,Pfizer’sCOVID-19vaccinehas onlybeenfullytestedonadults. • In September,Pfizer beganincluding teenagersas young as 16 inan ongoing trial,and last month theybegana new trialincludingchildrenas young as 12. Buttheseresultshaveyettobe shared. • Children(age18and under)accountfor1/5ofthepopulationoftheU.S. (~73million individuals).Additionally,3.7millioninfantsareborneachyear.Thispoolofunvaccinated peoplewouldstillbeatriskforCOVID-19diseaseand couldcontributetoitstransmissionis significantand herdimmunitycannotbeestablishedwithoutvaccinatingthem.
  • 39. Vaccineissuesthatwillneedtobefacedsoonerrather thanlater CommonReasonsforVaccine Hesitancy • Littletrustinthegovernmentalagencies whichdeclareitsafe • Conspiracytheoriesabound • “Rushedvaccinehasnotprovensafe–Iwill wait” • Concernaboutpotentialsideeffects • “Vaccineacquiredimmunityisnotas efficaciousasinfectionacquiredimmunity” • “Diseaseisnobigdealforpeoplelikeme, vaccineisanadditionalrisk” • “Vaccineagainstmybeliefsystem” ExaggeratedExpectationsfor COVID-19Vaccines • “Onceavaccineisintroducedthepublicwill nolongerhavetowearmasksorsocial distancewithinafewmonths” • “Herdimmunitywillbereachedveryquickly” • “ThevaccinewillpreventallcasesofCOVID- 19” • “Thevaccinewillprovidelifetimeimmunity”
  • 40. Whatfactorsleadtovaccinehesitancy • Trustand safety are the two major issuesgiven the amountof mis-and disinformationcirculating in our highly networked society Trust • Distrust in the motives of vaccine manufacturers • Distrust in the federal agencies responsible for regulating the vaccine industry and the fast-track warp speed imperative of the government • Distrust in public health experts promoting vaccination • Other vaccines that have been controversial and promoted by the same public health stakeholders Safety • Short-term and long-term side effects • How long will it take to know if there are side effects • Safety concerns for the very young and old • Differences in opinion about the relative effectiveness of “ natural” vs vaccine acquired immunity and disease “ resistance”
  • 41. Vaccineskepticismandsuspicionaremajorchallenges in reachingherdimmunity • The ability to reach 70-80%herd immunity to control COVID-19is underminedby both: • Skepticismaboutmedicalauthorityand expertise.Thishas beenmorecommon amongTrumpsupporterseventhoughthepresidenthas beenpromotingvaccinesas thesooncomingmagic bullet.Thisis paradoxical. • Suspicion thattheadministrationis cuttingcornersonsafetytorush thrua vaccinefor politicalreasons(morecommonamongDemocrats).
  • 45.
  • 46. • The study included 13,426randomly selected individualsacross 19 countries, most with a highCOVID-19burden. • Surveyrespondentsrepresenteda randomsampleofthepopulationsof19countries thatcomprisearound55%oftheglobalpopulation. • Of these, 71.5%responded that they would take a vaccine if it were proven safeand effective, and 61.4%said that they would get vaccinated if their employer recommended it Resultsofalargeinternationalstudyofpotential acceptanceofaCOVID-19vaccine
  • 47. • However, therewas a highof heterogeneity in responsesbetween countries,which could be related to trustin one’sgovernment • Countrieswhereacceptanceexceeded80%tendedtobeAsian nationswithstrong trustin centralgovernments(China,SouthKoreaand Singapore) • RespondentsfromPolandreportedthehighestproportionofnegativeresponses: 27.3% • Russianrespondentsgavethelowestproportionofpositiveresponses:54.9%. • Untiltheoriginsofwidevariationinwillingnesstoaccepta COVID-19vaccineare addressed,differencesinvaccinecoveragebetweencountriescoulddelayglobal controlofthe pandemic • Note: Reporting one’s willingness to get vaccinatedmight not be necessarilya good predictor of acceptance,as vaccinedecisions aremultifactorial and can change overtime. Resultsofalargeinternationalstudyofpotential acceptanceofaCOVID-19vaccine
  • 48. Vaccineintentionmaywellvarybyrateofvaccine effectiveness:Indonesiasurveyasanexample • Among 1,359respondents,93.3%of respondents(1,268/1,359)stated that they would like to be vaccinated if a vaccine was 95%effective. • The rate of acceptance decreased to 67.0%(911/1,359)if the vaccine was only 50% effective.
  • 50. The AP-NORC Survey, May 2020 TheAssociatedPress-NORCCenterforPublicAffairsResearch
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. Newsweeksurvey,June2020 HowmanyAmericanswouldbewillingtotakeaCOVID-19vaccine? • 30%of respondentsagreed with the conspiratorialsentimentthat “the dangers of vaccines are being hidden by the medical establishment.” • Agreementwiththestatementvariedbyraceand ethnicity:25%ofwhitepeopleagreed comparedwith29%ofLatinosand 49%ofBlackpeople. • 25%ofrespondentsagreedwiththestatement“thecoronavirusis beingused toforcea dangerousand unnecessaryvaccineonAmericans.”Only22%ofwhitepeopleand Latinosagreed while42%ofBlackpeopledid. • “If a vaccine for COVID-19becomesavailable, would you be willing to take it?” • Nearlytwo-thirdsofrespondentsindicatedtheywouldbewillingtotakeit. • Butraceand ethnicitymattered:While70%ofwhitepeopleagreed,only62%ofLatinos and 44%ofBlackpeopledid.
  • 56.
  • 62. MinorityPopulations:distrustofmedicalinterventions mayaffectvaccineacceptance • Minoritypopulations,especiallyBlackand AfricanAmericans,arelargelyunderrepresented in severalvaccinestudies. • Historicallyand presently,patternsofblatantand systemicracismhavesoweddiscordand mistrustbetweenminoritypopulationsand medicalresearchcommunities: • TuskegeeStudy:In 1932, federal organizations (includingthePublicHealthService)began working witha population of blackmen toseethelong-term effectsand outcomes from syphilis • Participantswerenotconsented;instead,beingtoldtheywerebeingtreatedfor“badblood” • Treatmentwaswithheld;doctorsweretoldnottotreatmeninthestudyforsyphilis • Evenin1947,whenpenicillinwasshowntobeaneffectivetreatment,meninthestudywerenot offeredanytreatment • Falseracial beliefsaboutbiological differenceshavebeenshown toaffect treatmentoutcomes  potentiallypropagating discriminatory/differentialtreatment
  • 63.
  • 65. NovemberpollfindsmajorityofCanadiansopento gettingCOVIDvaccine,butmanywanttowait • A new Ipsos/Radio-Canada poll hasfound that mostCanadians intend to get vaccinated againstCOVID-19, but that many would prefer to wait at leasta month or two after a vaccine is approved • Theinternetpollsurveyed3001peopleovertheage of18acrossthecountrybetween November20th and November25th. • Of thosewho responded, 64%said they would probably or certainly get vaccinated, while16%said they would not. • 20%oftheserespondentssaid theywereunsureas towhethertheywouldget vaccinated. • Of thosewho said they would get vaccinated, only 36%said they'd get vaccinated as soonas possible. Another 38%said they’d wait one or two months,and 11% were undecided as to when.
  • 66. TheUSAisnottheonlycountrywhere vaccinehesitancy appearstobeaproblematthemoment • FrenchoppositiontotheCOVID-19 vaccinegrowsasgovernmentunveils campaign • ApoolconductedbytheweeklyJournal duDimancheonNovember28th found that59%ofFrenchpeopledidnotplanto getinoculatedagainstthecoronavirus. • “Beforeweimmunizeourselvesagainst thevirus,weneedtoimmunizeourselves againstfear,"(healthministerOlivier VĂŠranreferringtotheriseinreticenceof theFrenchpeople)
  • 68. Hesitancytoreceivefirstgenerationvaccines *Fromasurveyof1,075 U.S.adults,Sept.24-27, 2020 How likely would you be to take a first generation COVID- 19 vaccine if… (Very/somewhat likely) … your doctor said it was safe 62%** … the cost were completely covered by insurance 56% … the FDA said it was safe 54% … you could get it easily, from a walk-in or drive-thru clinic 50% … you were paid $100 to receive the vaccine 44% … you had to make an appointment and get it at a hospital 37% … it cost you $100 26%** … President Trump said it was safe 19%**
  • 69. Trustissuesmayaffectlowertierhealthcareworkers willingnesstoacceptvaccines • ‘If There’s No Trust, There’ll Be More Hesitancy’: Nursing Homes Must OvercomeStaff Skepticism of COVID Vaccine” (SkilledNursing News 12/2/2020) • Thismay especially be the case if the healthcare worker is from a minority group that may havesuspicionsthat thosewho are firstto receive vaccination are guinea pigs to test the vaccine’s safety and efficacy. • In order to get buy-in from thisgroup that is at greatest riskto COVID-19,they must feel that they have a safety net in the event that they fall ill from taking the vaccine and are unableto come to work and/or get a paycheck.
  • 71. • Whenyou experiencerelativelymild side effectsfrom a vaccine,thismeans thatyour immunesystemhasstarteda responsetothevaccine. Thisis whatyouwanttohappen! • Publichealthofficialsand vaccinedevelopersneedtowarnpeoplethatthecoronavirus vaccines may havesideeffectsthatmimicthesymptomsofa mild COVID-19disease. • By beingtransparent about thepossiblediscomforts peoplemay experience,theywillbelesslikelyto be scaredaway from gettingthesecond scheduleddoseof thevaccines • Thesesideeffectsarelikelytoinclude: • Sorearm, musclepain, chills,headache,fatigue,and fever. • Oneshould plan for a day of restand recuperationafter gettingvaccinated • Thesesymptomshaveonlylastedforadayinthethreevaccinessoontobeavailabletothepublic. • As withothervaccines,thepublic needsto be encouragedtothinkof short-termvaccineside effectsas evidencethatthevaccineis workingas intendedand of sideeffectsas a “positive response”insteadof an “adversereaction.” Vaccinesideeffectsasdemonstrationsofefficacy
  • 72. Whataboutreactionsinpeoplewithsevereallergies? • At the momentit is recommended that anyonewith a history of severe allergic reactions to a vaccine, medicine or food, or thosewho carry an adrenaline autoinjector pen, should wait to get Pfizer’s vaccine. • The warning came after two NHS workers in the UK had allergic reactions on Tuesday after receiving the vaccine • BothNHS workershavea historyofseriousallergiesand carryadrenalinepensaround withthem
  • 73. Whataboutreactionsinpeoplewithsevereallergies? • They are understoodto havehad an anaphylactoid reaction, which tends to involve a skinrash, breathlessnessand sometimesa drop in blood pressure. Thisis not the sameas anaphylaxiswhich can be fatal • Reactionslikethisareuncommonformostpeoplewithminorallergies • Theydooccurwithothervaccines,includingtheannualinfluenzavaccines • Thesereactionsarealso shortlivedand do not resultinlongtermconsequences • As with other vaccinations, individualswith a history of severeallergiesshould ALWAYS consult with their medical provider/physicianbeforereceiving ANY vaccine. If you and your medical provider decide that you shouldreceive the vaccine, it can be administered under closesupervision to mitigateany potential reactions you may experience as a result.
  • 75. • In 2019, beforethe pandemic hit, the World HealthOrganization (WHO)listed vaccine hesitancy as one of the top 10 globalhealththreats. • Thosewho hold off on getting the eventualCOVID-19vaccine pose a threat to developing herd immunity to the virus. • Vaccine hesitancy is a persistentproblem fostered by both mistrustin one’s governmentand misinformation propagated by stakeholderswith a variety of self - serving agendas. • SomeofthesesamestakeholdershavechallengedCOVID-19policieslinkedtomask wearingand shutdownsas waysofmitigatingthevirus. • Mis/disinformationdoes not only reinforce the views of anti-vaxxers but leads many othersto also become vaccine hesitantwhich will ultimately delay herd immunity. Vaccinehesitancyisaglobalpublichealthproblemthat mustbeaddressed
  • 76. Communityvariationinratesofvaccination • If the membersof a particularcommunity chose not to vaccinate,then the entirecommunity is vulnerableto an epidemic (thinkof a pandemic, but only contained to that specific community/neighboringcommunities). • Once a critical massof infected individualsis reached in one locale, it enablesa contagion to spread throughoutthe rest of the population • Thisis trueevenifa significantfractionoftheoverall populationis vaccinated. • Remember, if and when a community has reachedherd immunity, there will still be a proportion of people in that community that will be susceptible to infection. • Weneedtothinkofcommunitiesas fluid.As isolatedas a communitymay be, there willstillalways be somelevelof travelin and out of thatcommunitywhich would allowfortransmissionofthevirusfroma localethatchoosesnottovaccinatetolocales thatdo receivevaccinations.
  • 78. Whatisthegovernmentsroleininsuringvaccination coverage?Anticipatesomepoliticalcontroversy. • In orderto reachherd immunity, it is likely that vaccineswill needto be mandated for workplacesand schools. • As is thecaseofmeasles,thosewhorefusetogettheirchildrenvaccinatedforreligious reasonsmay findtheirchildrenarebarredfrompublicschools,day care,other childcarefacilities,etc. • However, thereis a difference between COVID-19and measles. • Measlesis highlyinfectiousand resultsin seriousdiseasefora significant percentageof children. • Althoughthelikelihoodwillchildrenexperiencea severeillnessfromCOVID-19is relativelylowerthanmeasles,theycan stilltransmittheinfectiontoothervulnerable populations(teachers/schoolfaculty)whomay experienceseveredisease.
  • 79. Employercitizenshipandcivilliberties • If the governmentdoes not mandatevaccination , it may be left up to employersto mandate vaccination (similar to howsomeemployers havemandated mask wearing indoors and physicaldistancing). • Thiswill be a major headachefor businessowners and humanrelations departments who will be left with a decision as to whether to mandate or encouragevaccination for COVID-19. • Iftheymandatevaccinations(oncedeemedsafeand available),thenbylawtheymust allowforexemptions • However,thosewhochosenot vaccinatedue to someconvictionwill likelybe requiredto protectotheremployeesby alternativemeans likecontinuedmask wearing and physicaldistancingfor sometimeinto thefutureuntilvaccination is no longerrequiredto preventtransmission.
  • 81. • Vaccines are not 100%effective, buttwo of the vaccines under developmentfor COVID-10 have reported that they are 95%effective in preventing severeCOVID-19. • So,ifyouarevaccinateditis highlyunlikelyyou willget severeCOVID-19overthenext6 monthsorperhapslonger(thedurationofefficacyremainstobeseen). • It is possibleto be re-infected with COVID-19– rare but possible. • It takes time for vaccines to work: It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination. That meansit’s possiblea person could be infected with the virusthat causesCOVID-19justbeforeor justafter vaccination and get sick. Thisis becausethe vaccine hasnot had enoughtime to provide protection. IfIgetvaccinated,canIstillgetCOVID-19?
  • 82. WillthosewhohavealreadyhadCOVID-19beencouraged togetvaccinated? • It is “very likely” that adults who have recovered from COVID-19will be encouraged to take the vaccine. • The reason is becausethe duration of protection from someonewho has already been infected is unknown. We do not yet know how long protection will last in general and for specific categories of people • Factorsthatmightinfluencedurationofimmunityincludethestateofperson’shealth, whethertheyweresymptomaticvs asymptomatic,and howsevertheirillnesswas. • Untilweknowforcertain,vaccinationwillmostlikelyberecommended. • Some recovered COVID-19patients were among the participants in the Moderna trial.
  • 83. IfIgetthevaccine,howwillIknowwhether Ihave thediseaseifI amexposedtosomeonewhohascomedownwithit? WillItest positivejustbecauseIhavebeenvaccinated? • If you areexperiencing symptoms consistent with COVID-19, you will be administereda diagnostic test such as a PCR or antigen test. • Neitherofthesetestslookforantibodiestothevirus • Thesetypesoftestsdeterminewhetheryouhavean activeinfectionbydetecting proteinsthatareexpressedbythevirus orbydetectingthegeneticmaterialfromthe virus. • COVID-19 vaccinesdo not contain the virus that causesthe diseaseand will thereforenot cause you to test positive on COVID-19 viraltests. • Thesevaccinescauseyourimmunesystemtoproduceantibodiestothevirus. • IfyouhavebeenvaccinatedforthevirusthatcausesCOVID-19,youwilllatertest positivevia an antibodytest.
  • 84. • YES • Getting vaccinated for COVID-19will not mean theend of wearing face masksin public places, physicaldistancing or frequenthand-washingto prevent the spread of COVID-19. • Thisis duetothefactthatthevaccinesmay notentirelypreventCOVID-19infection,so thereis a chanceyou may stillbeabletogetCOVID-19and spread ittoothersevenafter vaccination. AftergettingvaccinatedwillIstillhavetowearamask?
  • 85. Soberingscenariorelatedtotheimpactof vaccines takingaccountthecurrentinfectionrates • At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about200,000confirmednew infections per day), a vaccine that is 95%effective — distributedat the expected pace — would stillleave a terrible toll in thesix monthsafter it was introduced. Almost10 million or so Americanswould contract the virus, and more than 160,000would die. • Thisis far worse than the toll in an alternate universein which the vaccine was only 50%effective, butthe U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its current level in early September (about35,000new daily cases). In that scenario, thedeath toll in the next six monthswould be kept to about60,000. • No vaccine can eliminatea pandemic immediately,justas no fire hosecan put out a forestfire. Whilethe vaccine is being distributed, the viruscontinuesto do damage. “Bluntly stated, we’ll get outof thispandemic faster if we give the vaccine lesswork to do.”
  • 88. COVID-19andtheSeasonalFlu • The seasonalflu caused an estimated400,000hospitalizationsand 22,000deaths in the US during the lastflu season, according to theCDC. • Both the flu and COVID-19have many of thesamesymptoms. • OnesymptomthatdifferentiatesflufromCOVID-19is lossoftasteorsmell,especially smell • Ifyouloseyoursenseofsmell, geta COVID-19 testas soon as possible. • It is possibleto haveCOVID-19and the flu at thesametime. • For your own safety and to keephospitals from being overwhelmed,pleaseget a flu vaccination NOW and a COVID-19 vaccination as soon as it becomes available.
  • 89. ShouldIgetaseasonalfluvaccineifIhavenotdoneso? Yes!Forfourgoodreasons: 1. It is possibleto getthe“flu”and COVID-19at thesametimeand thiswould increase theseverityof your illness. 2. As thecoronaviruscontinuestospread acrossthecountry,doctorssay it'smore importantthaneverto build up herdimmunity forstrainsof “flu.” • Thisprotectstheelderly and othervulnerable people . 3. It is veryimportantto protectyourselffromtheinfluenza virus and not put more pressureon thehealthsystemwiththeimpending casesof coronavirus. • Thelastthingtheyneed isthisdouble burden. • Thebest timetogetaseasonal influenza vaccine ismid September tomid October 4. Cross–protectionat somelevelis a possibilitythatis presentlybeing investigated for severaldifferentvaccines.Thishasnot yet beendemonstrated forCOVID-19, but crossprotection hasbeen documentedfor otherdiseases.
  • 90. Doesgettingaflushotmakeyoutemporarilymore susceptibletoCOVID-19 • Does receiving a flu vaccine lower your immunity, making you briefly more susceptibleto catching COVID-19? • Probablynot,there'sverylittlescientificbasisthatgettinga flu shotwilltemporarily weakenyourimmunesystem. • Yourimmunesystemencountersand reactstomultiplepathogensall thetime,so itis highlyunlikelythatreactingtoonevaccinewillputyouat greaterrisk toinfectionfrom otherpathogens.
  • 92. Pragmaticissuesrelatedtovaccinecoverage: • Will COVID-19vaccines be free or affordable? • Will insurance cover it? • Will vaccines be easy to access? • Ifprovidedoutsidea clinic,willtheybeprovidedinplaces thatall segmentsofthe populationfeelcomfortablevisiting? • Willtheybegivenbypeoplewhoare trusted?
  • 93. HowdoIestimate whatpositionIammostlikelytohave wheninlineforaCOVID-19vaccination? • The New York Tines in conjunctionwith the Surgo Foundation and Ariadne Labs have created a vaccine tool to calculate thenumber of people who will need a vaccine in each stateand county — and where you mightfit in that line. • You can access thistool at : https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine- timeline.html?referringSource=articleShare
  • 94.
  • 95. EmergencyCOVID-vaccineapprovalsposeadilemmafor scientistsfortworeasons • Once a vaccine is granted emergency approval, thereis pressureon developers to offer the immunizationto trial participants who received a placebo. • But if too many people cross over to thevaccine group, the companies mightnot have enoughdata to establish: • Long-termoutcomes,such as safety • Howlongvaccineprotectionlasts • Whetherthevaccinepreventsinfectionorjustthedisease
  • 96. EmergencyCOVID-vaccineapprovalsposeadilemmafor scientistsfortworeasons • It will become more difficultto recruit volunteersfor thetrails of other new vaccines. • Ifa vaccineexiststhathas beenidentifiedas efficaciousin themedia,whywould someonewanttobepartofa trialofa yettobefullytested vaccineifbeingpartofthat trialmeanstheycan nottakeanotherprovenefficaciousvaccineuntilthetrialends? • IfthecomparatorfornewCOVID-19vaccinesbecomesvaccineslikethoseproducedby Pfizerand Moderna(withefficacyrates>90%)insteadofa placebogroup,itmay be hardertorecruitthesampleneededtodemonstratethelevelofefficacytheFDA would demand.* • In thiscase,drop out of new candidatevaccinesinphaseI and IItrialsmay occur.