Metka - Resume of Coverage [Euroxx]

Please refer to important disclosures in the Disclosure Appendix.
Company Report, Resume of Coverage
July 1, 2013
Metka
OVERWEIGHT
Previous Rating: Overweight
The Stealth of EPCs in MENA
Share Price: €9.90 (Close of June 28)
12M Price Target: €13.30
Previous Target: €13.30
Expected Total Return: 39%
Estimates
2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
Sales (€ m) 548 622 606 600
EBITDA (€ m) 93 105 103 102
Pre-tax profit (€m) 86 103 103 102
Net profit (€ m) 71 75 76 75
EPS (€) 1.37 1.45 1.46 1.44
Source: Metka , Euroxx Research
Ratios
2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
P/E (x) 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.9
P/BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1
EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 2.7 2.2 1.7
Div Yield (%) 2.5% 5.0% 5.1% 5.8%
Source: Metka, Euroxx Research
Stock Performance
3M 6M 12M YTD
Absolute -2.7% 0.5% 47.5% 1.1%
Difference (ATG) -0.2% 6.5% 1.0% 7.8%
Stock Data:
Market Cap (€ m) 539
Outstanding shares (#) 51,950,600
Daily volume (#) 51,034
Low / High 52 w (€) 5.55 – 12.78
Free float 41.34%
Bloomberg / Reuters MΕΤΤΚ GA / MTΚr.AT
Company Description:
Founded in 1962, METKA undertakes projects regarding
construction of energy plants, defense mechanisms and
infrastructure. The company employs on 564 people and
was acquired by Mytilineos Group on January 1999.
Tolis Paschalis
Energy/Refining
paschalis@euroxx.gr
+30 210 6879492
Manos Giakoumis
Research Director
giakoumis@euroxx.gr
+30 210 68 79 322
Strongly Positioned in Robust Markets: Metka is a leading
international contractor of turn-key high efficiency power plants.
It has a strong track record in delivering projects on-time and
on-budget enabling it to achieve sales and EPS CAGR of 17%
and 26% over 2009 to 2012, with strong EBITDA margins >
16%. Beyond being the market leader in Greece, Metka enjoys
strong market share in the power thirsty MENA region (Middle
East and North Africa) winning several new projects in Algeria
(3 projects), Iraq (2), Turkey (2), Jordan (2) and Syria (2) in the
last five years. We estimate that the MENA region could
account for >30% of a conservative estimate of c€45bn of
annualized capex in gas fired plants around the globe.
Impressive Backlog Replenishment Continues: The backlog
now stands at €1.1bn (ex-Syria II and Iraq II), providing strong
visibility over the expected sales of €600-620m over FY‟13-15e.
More than 90% of its backlog is out of Greece and specifically in
countries such as Algeria, Iraq and Jordan where energy
consumption in the last decade rose by more than 50% with
significant shortages of supply and where the electricity supply
per capita is up to 10x below that of developed markets. So far
in 2013, Metka announced two new contracts totaling €900m
(including €800m Iraq II contract that is pending finalisation).
Syria Provides Short Term Earnings Headwind: In Q1‟13
sales and net profit fell by 22-32% mainly due to delays in the
completion of Syria I. It plans to remobilize the site when the
security situation allows it. About 25% of Syria I is outstanding
while Syria II has not started and it is not in our forecasts.
Consolidation Phase - Stable Earnings Over FY’13-15e: The
successful backlog replenishment in the last few years, and
recent major contract wins (e.g. Iraq) provide good visibility for a
steady net earnings stream of €70-75m over FY‟13-15e.
Remains Overweight: The shares now trade on 7x FY‟13-15e
P/E – which is towards the mid-point of where they traded in the
last few years (5-10x). Metka also benefits from a strong
balance sheet with net cash of €91m at YE‟12 and combined
with positive free cash flow over the life of its backlog, we
believe the company will continue its solid dividend payout
policy of c35%. We retain our target price at €13.30 using a
DCF approach, implying a 39% total upside from current price
levels (WACC of 12.4%). Further contract wins and solid
earnings should act as short term catalysts for the shares and
we maintain our Overweight rating.
EuroxxResearch–Industrials

July 1, 2013 Greece / Industrials
Euroxx Research / Metka – Resume of coverage 2
Summary of Financials
(in €m unless otherwise stated)
Profit & Loss FY'12a FY13e FY14e FY'15e Balance Sheet FY'12a FY13e FY14e FY'15e
Sales 548 622 606 600 Tangible Assets 58 57 57 57
chng -45.4% 13.6% -2.6% -1.0% Intangible FA - Goodw ill 2 2 2 2
Gross profit 113 134 130 129 Other Fixed Assets 20 20 20 20
chng -39.2% 17.9% -2.7% -1.0% Total fixed assets 80 79 79 79
EBITDA 93 105 102 101 Inventory 37 39 38 38
chng -42.5% 13.6% -2.8% -1.0% Trade debtors 452 426 415 411
D&A -5 -5 -5 -5 Other Current Assets 53 53 53 53
Operating profit (EBIT) 88 101 98 97 Cash/liquid assets 141 280 338 389
chng -43.7% 14.3% -2.9% -1.0% Total current assets 684 798 844 891
Net finance income/(cost) -4 0 3 3 Total Assets 763 877 923 970
Share of profit associates 2 2 2 2 Trade creditors 213 242 237 235
Pre-tax profit 86 103 103 102 Short - term debt 48 48 48 48
chng -42% 19% 0% -1% Dividend 13 26 26 30
Tax -14 -26 -26 -26 Long term debt 3 3 3 3
Minorities -1 -1 -1 -1 Other/Customer Advances 77 77 77 77
Net profit 71 75 76 75 Deffered Taxes 44 44 44 44
chng -37.9% 5.7% 0.1% -1.0% Other ST/LT liabilities 8 29 29 29
EPS 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 Shareholder's Equity 357 408 458 504
DPS (in €) 0.25 0.49 0.51 0.58 Total Equity & Liabilities 763 877 923 970
Cash Flow FY'12a FY13e FY14e FY'15e Ratio Analysis FY'12a FY13e FY14e FY'15e
Operating Profit 88 101 98 97 ROCE 35% 62% 64% 66%
Depreciation / Grants Amortisation 5 5 5 5 EV/EBITDA 4.6 2.7 2.2 1.7
Change in provisions / Other -7 2 2 2 ROE 21% 20% 17% 16%
Self generated cash flow 85 107 104 103 EV/Sales 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3
Decrease/(increase) in debtors -14 26 11 4 Sales / Capital Employed 2.2 3.9 4.0 4.1
Decrease/(increase) in stocks -18 -2 1 0 P/BV 1.51 1.32 1.17 1.06
Increase/(decrease) in creditors -105 29 -5 -2 Sales / TFA 6.9 7.9 7.7 7.6
Change in other debtors / creditors -4 0 0 0
W-capital estimated -140 53 7 2 Days stocks 24.9 23.0 23.0 23.0
Operating cash flow -55 160 112 106 Days debtors 301.3 250.0 250.0 250.0
Taxation Paid -2 -5 -26 -26 Days creditors 142.2 142.0 143.0 143.0
Dividends Paid -39 -13 -26 -26 Operating cycle (to sales) 184.0 131.0 130.0 130.0
Net cash flow -tax and servicing of finance -40 -18 -49 -50
Investments (acquisitions / disposals) -1 0 0 0 Working capital to sales 50% 36% 36% 36%
Capital expenditure -3 -4 -5 -5
Net cash flow from investing -4 -4 -5 -5 Net cash/(debt) 92.1 230.5 289.0 340.3
Net cash flow before financing -98.9 138.4 58.6 51.2
Increase/(decrease) in debt 77 0 0 0 Total Liab / Total assets 53% 54% 51% 48%
Net cash inflow from financing 77 0 0 0
Change in cash and equivalents -27 138 59 51 Debt/Equity 15% 13% 12% 11%
Change in net debt -61 138 59 51 Gross profit mgn 20.7% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5%
Free Cash flow -60 151 84 78 EBITDA mgn 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9%

Table of Contents
Investment Thesis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
Investment Risks……………………………………………………………………………………………………...…… 6
Valuation & Rating………..…………….………………………………………………………………………..………... 7
Metka – Snapshot of Activities…………………………………………………………………………………………… 8
Backlog Snapshot…..……..………………………………………………………………………………………………. 9
Key Projects Breakdown……..………………………………………………………………………………………... 10
Strongly Positioned in Strongly Growing Markets……………………………………………………………………… 11
Global Gas-fired Power Generation Set to See Strong Growth…………………………………………………… 12
Algeria………………………...…………………………………………………………………………………………. 14
Jordan……………………...……………………………………………………………………………………………. 15
Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16
Turkey………..…………………………………………………………………………………………….................... 18
Syria……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19
Financial Forecasts ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 20
Consensus……………………………………………………………………………………………. 23
Strong Balance Sheet…………………………………………………………………………………. 23
Solid Dividend Payout……………………………………………………………………………….... 24
APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………………………………… 25
Q1‟13 Results…………………………………………………………………………………………… 26
Group Profile - Mytilineos………………………………………………………………………………… 27
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES……………...……………………………………………………………………………. 28

Leading EPC company in
MENA – now in
consolidation phase with
upside risks
High risk – High reward
business model
90% of €1.1bn backlog
outside of Greece
in power thirsty countries
Backlog at 2x-3x sales
Investment Thesis
Metka is a leading international contractor of turn-key high efficiency power
plants in the power thirsty MENA region where energy consumption in the last
decade rose by more than 50% with significant shortages of supply. It has a
strong track record in delivering projects on-time and on-budget enabling it to
achieve sales and EPS CAGR of 17% and 26% over FY’09 to FY’12, with strong
EBITDA margins > 16%. We believe the company is now entering a
consolidation phase – with stable earnings and strong cash flows over the next
2-3 years. Risks are on the upside, considering the strong backlog
replenishment so far in FY’13e and the expected boom in construction of CCGT
plants in the gas rich MENA region. On a P/E of 7x and a dividend yield of c5%,
combined with a net cash position we believe there is further upside and our
target price is at €13.30 (DCF based on WACC of 12.4%).
Strong Track Record in Execution – Metka usually bids for projects on a fixed-price
basis. This approach has an increased risk factor as the client transfers costs and
risks to the contractor, but, if successful offers a high profit margin. Metka‟s strong
track-record of completing projects on-time and on-budget, combined with a lean
operating model lead to industry leading EBITDA margins of 16%, which we believe
are sustainable over FY‟13-15e.
Strongly Positioned in Strongly Growing Markets – Capitalising on its leading
(>50%) market share in Greece, Metka quickly established a leading market share in
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Syria with multiple contract wins in such countries, with
many coming from international tenders and from leading private energy groups such
as RWE and OMV. More than 90% of the backlog is now out of Greece and
specifically in countries such as Algeria, Iraq and Jordan where energy consumption
in the last decade rose by more than 50% with significant shortages of supply.
According to IEO (International Energy Outlook) data, natural gas fired generating
capacity in the MENA region should grow by c3% „07- 20 CAGR (well above the world
average of c1%). We estimate that the MENA region could account for >30% of a
conservative estimate of c€45bn of annualized capex in gas fired plants around the
globe.
Impressive Backlog Replenishment – New contracts worth €380m were signed in
the last 12 months, bringing the backlog to €1.1bn (or €1.7bn if we include Syria II
and €2.5bn if we include Iraq II that is pending finalisation). This provides strong
visibility over the expected sales of €600-620m over FY‟13-15e.
Project Backlog vs. Sales
Source: Metka, Euroxx Research – In Green is Q1’13 including Syria & Yellow including Iraq II
605 525
2.093 2.248
1.666
1.800 1.800
1.800
1.650
1.723
2.500
1090 in Q1'13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12 FY'13e FY'14e FY'15e
Millioneuros
Sales
Backlog
Q1'13 Backlog of:
€1,1bn
If Syria II picks up: €1,7bn &
IfIraq II contract signed:€2,5bn

The two-per-year Theme
Defense business provides
steady revenue stream
Net Cash position supports
stable dividend policy
New projects boost share
price performance
Retain Overweight and TP
at €13.30
Expect More Major Contract Wins in 2013e – With the exception of the €800m April
win in Iraq, other recent contract wins were of smaller scale (€93 to €164m) –
providing a more diversified revenue stream (by project) than before. In a recent
conference call, Metka confirmed that they are actively bidding in several countries in
the MENA region for major power plants. With the average production time for a
major plant (>400MW CCGT) being 24-36 months, we believe Metka needs two major
project wins per year to be able to achieve our €600-620m forecast in the longer term.
We see no reason why this cannot continue.
Stable Defense Business – Since its acquisition by the Mytilineos Group in 1998,
Metka capitalised on opportunities in the specialized defence equipment sector and is
currently working on two contracts for UAE and Taiwan, developing a total of 62 semi-
trailers and 48 missile launch mechanisms. Defense should continue to account for
c10% of group sales over FY‟12-15e.
History of Good Dividend Returns – At the end of FY‟12 Metka had a net cash
position of €92m, despite a record working capital outflow of €140m. This outflow is
project-related and in our view should reverse over FY‟13-15e and we expect Metka
to continue to retain a big part of its EBITDA as free cash flow – with capex at <1% of
sales (it relies heavily on locally subcontracting workforce and equipment). This
strong balance sheet enabled Metka to provide a good dividend payout c35% (in
recent years). Considering that the parent company (Mytilineos) is in a net debt
position, we expect Metka to continue to return at least 35% of its earnings over
FY‟13-15e or €0.49-€0.58 per share – implying a dividend yield of 4.7% to 5.6%.
Share Price Moves on Contract Wins - The shares are c1.1% up YTD (+47.5% in
12 months) despite the soft Q1‟13 figures where EPS fell by 38% (we estimate
recurring EPS to grow by 6% in the full year). As the chart below shows, the market
reacts positively on news of new project awards and this we believe should remain as
the main catalyst for the shares ahead.
Share Price vs. New Projects
Overweight Rating – The shares now trade on 7x FY‟13-15e P/E – which is towards
the mid-point of where they traded in the last few years (5-10x). We maintain our
Overweight rating and a TP of €13.30 using a DCF approach, implying a 39% total
upside from the current price levels (WACC of 12.4%).
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
SharePrice(ineuros)
Share Price
Awarded €36.5m project
defence system
Awarded €75m
146MWEPC project
in Jordan
Awarded €110m
143MWEPC project
in Jordan
Awarded €35m
EPC project in Algeria
Awarded €93m project
368MWOCGT in Algeria
Awarded €800m project
1,642MWCCGT in Iraq
Awarded €211m
projectin Algeria
Greek Elections
Share price up 45%
since Greek elections

Risky business
Focused in high risk
countries
Concentration of backlog
Higher Input costs
Euro/USD fluctuations
Limited technological
diversification
Investment Risks
Metka‟s Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) business heavily relies on
execution and the security of its backlog. So far the company has a strong execution
track record and with the exception of Syria where the political situation led to the
suspension of activity, it experienced no major cancellations of projects.
The other key risks are:
Country Risk – The investment climate in a lot of countries where Metka operates or
intends to bid for contracts affects its overall EPC business. Security risks, i.e. Syria,
jeopardize project completion and increase costs and risks due to the nature of lump-
sum contracts that Metka tends to bid for. As the table below shows the vast majority
of Metka‟s backlog is situated in countries were political and economic risks run high.
Source: E&Y – Natural Gas – Green, Yellow, Red colour for Low, Medium and High Risk
Customer Concentration Risk – Metka moved from being a Greek-based EPC
contractor to now having almost c90% of its backlog outside of Greece. Some of
these countries and contracts have historically been very significant in a group
context and exposed Metka to significant customer concentration risk. For example at
some stage last year Syria was as much as 78% of its backlog. Mitigating this with the
exception of a big Iraq win, other recent contract wins were of smaller scale (€93m to
€164m) – providing a more diversified revenue stream (by project) than before.
Construction Costs Risk – Metka bears the direct costs of all equipment and
materials, along with construction and installation costs for all CCGT facilities. It
however, passes any turbine price (30% of total equipment cost) variation to the
client. We believe the real risk for Metka is turbine and skilled subcontractor scarcity
as opposed to pricing.
Currency Fluctuations – Most of Metka‟s contracts are performed in euro terms. In
some cases however, as in the recently awarded $1bn contract in Iraq, volatility in the
Euro/USD ratio could affect the bottom line results.
Reliance On CCGT technology – Metka‟s know-how lies mainly in the EPC of gas-
fired plants, with a particular expertise in the CCGT plants. Depending on macro
parameters, a drop in global GDP growth and natural gas prices could affect the need
of new plants in the region.

Rating at Overweight and
TP at €13.30
Trades on 7x FY’13-15e
P/E
Valuation & Rating
In our model we make explicit estimates about
revenues and margins up until FY‟15. We expect
EBIT of €112m in perpetuity and estimate a
terminal EBIT margin of 16% coupled with a long
term growth rate of 2% after FY‟15. Our WACC
estimates stand at 12.4%, comprising a risk free
rate of 1.77% (German 10y Bund Yield),risk
premium of 15.5% (weighted blended mix reflecting
country risk exposure) and a beta of 0.73
(Bloomberg).
Our valuation model derives a fair value of €13.30 per share, which implies a total
upside potential of 39% (including FY‟13e DPS of €0.49) from current price levels and
hence, we maintain our Overweight rating on the stock.
Source: Euroxx Research
In terms of multiples, Metka now trades on 7x FY‟13-15e P/E – which is towards the
mid-point of where was trading in the last few years (4-10x).
P/E multiple
DCF Valuation (€m) FY'13e FY'14e FY'15e T
Sales 622 606 600
% grow th 14% -3% -1% 2%
EBIT 100.7 97.7 96.7
EBIT Margin % 16% 16% 16% 16%
NOPAT (EBIT after tax) 74.5 72.3 71.6
Less: WC additions -52.8 -7.4 -2.2
Plus: depreciation 4.7 4.7 4.7
Less: Cap ex 4.0 4.5 4.7
Free Cash Flow 128.0 79.9 73.7
Discounted FCF 113.9 63.3 51.9
NPV of Cash Flow s 358.3
Terminal Value 259.2
Enterprise Value 617.5
Minority rights (Valued at Balance Sheet Value) 17.2
Equity Value 690.4
DCF Based Valuation per share 13.30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12 FY'13
DCF Assumptions
Risk Free Rate 1.77%
Risk Premium 15.5%
Market Return 17.3%
Beta 0.73
WACC 12.4%
Perpetuity Growth 2%

Active in the Energy,
Defense & Infrastructure
sectors
Projects with General
Electric, Siemens and
Alstom
Metka – Snapshot of Activities
Metka started as a state-owned construction company specializing in metallic
projects. Since 2004 it became an EPC contractor focusing on Greece. Since 2007 it
embarked on major internationalization and close to 90% of its backlog and sales in
2012 came outside of Greece.
Shareholder Structure – Q1’13
Source: Metka
Metka is active in the Energy, Defense and Infrastructure sectors. It specializes in
delivering “turn-key” projects in the Energy sector involving the complete range of
EPC scope. The most significant area of activity is in power generation projects. It
undertakes EPC contracts either on a stand-alone basis or in consortium with leading
technology suppliers, such as GE, Siemens, Alstom and Ansaldo. In the last few
years it builds plants for RWE and OMV in Turkey, OMV in Romania, SPE in Algeria.
Its turn-key capability extends across the full range of thermal power generation
technologies (combined cycle, conventional stream plants), as well as hydro power
generation. Capabilities also include the rehabilitation and upgrading/repowering of
existing power plants.
2012 Sales Geographical Segment Distribution
Source: Metka
The group has significant exposure in the MENA region and expertise in the EPC of
CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plants) and OCGT (Open Cycle Gas fired
Turbine) plants. Highlights of its current pipeline include the 700MW CCGT plant in
Syria, the 775MW CCGT and 870MW CCGT plants in Turkey, the 1,250MW power
plant in Iraq, and a number of other contracts in Algeria and Jordan.
Mytilineos
Group;53.6%
KAS Depository
Trust Co.; 5.0%
Free Float;
41.3%
Greece
23%
EE Countries
3%Turkey
33%
Syria/M.East
27%
Jordan
8%
Other
Countries
6%

Turkey provides the
credentials
Three orders
in two years in Algeria
Iraq’s reconstruction
opportunities
Fast-tracking
energy in Jordan
Backlog Snapshot
In the chart below, we exclude the 724MW plant in Syria, with a budget of €678m and
the recently awarded 1,642MW Iraq project of €800m, with a 32month construction
tenor.
Order Backlog (Q1’13) / Regional Split
Turkey – The 775MW power plant in Denizli and the 870MW natural gas fired plant in
Samsun are near completion. These two projects were built on behalf of the major
energy groups RWE and OMV, providing strong credentials for the internationalization
of Metka. There‟s an outstanding amount of €63m in total that will be concluded by
Q3‟13.
Algeria – On the back of a successful contract in FY‟12 of engineering, procurement,
installation and commissioning of 6 mobile gas turbine power generating sets, the
group was awarded two further projects this year. One was for a fast track completion
of 24 mobile units for c€160m and the other was for an EPC for a 368MW OCGT
plant with a 2.5 year tenor and a budget of €93m (Metka was part of a GE contract)
Iraq – Following the norm of at least two projects per country, Metka was awarded a
1,250MW plant in Basra for a fee of €275m. Its latest success is the contract award of
a 1642 CCGT plant for €800m and a tenor of 32 months. Metka has confirmed it is in
talks with the Chinese SEPCO III to take it on as a JV. This is because Metka wants
to manage its „backlog risk‟ in high risk countries like Syria and Iraq.
Jordan –. Jordan needs to cover its energy needs within a few months due to the
recent influx of more than 600,000 refugees (10% of Jordan‟s population) from Syria.
To do so it proceeds with add-ons on existing plants and easy to transfer fast-track
power generating units. Metka has an outstanding backlog of €150m in Jordan.
Iraq
25%
Syria
16%
Algeria
24%
Jordan
14%
Greece
13%
Turkey
6%
Taiwan
2%

Key Projects Breakdown
Key Metka Project Execution as of end of FY’12 & FY’13 Contract Awards
Capacity
MW
Value
€
Client
Tenor
(months)
Contract
Award Date
Turbine
Supplier
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Projects
Denizli 775 490 RWE 36 Q4'09 Siemens
2 phases nat gas
Samsun 870 475 OMV 28.5 Q1'10 GE
CCGT
Deir Ali, Syria 700 673 PEEGT 36 Q3'09 Ansaldo Progress through Lebanon
Nat Gas PP for PEEGT
Deir Azzour 724 687 PEEGT 40 Q4'10 Andaldo On hold due to Syria conflict
Nat Gas PP for PEEGT
Basra 1251 277 Iraq Gov 24 Q4'11 GE
OCGT-10 dual fuel turbines
Anbar 1642 800 Iraq Gov 32 Q2'13 GE 32 month tenor if succesful negotiations
CCGT - 4 Gas/2 Steam Units
Zarqa 143 120 Jordan Gov 28 Q4'12 Alstom
OCGT
Amman 146 82 Jordan Gov 9 Q4'12 Alstom
Simple cycle Al Samra Power
Sonelgaz Group 481 167 SPE 9 Q4'12 GE
EPC 24 sets of Gas Turbines
Algeria Utilities 6x18.8 34 SPE - - GE
EPC 6 mobile Turbine sets
Hassi R‟mel 368 93 SPE 29.5 Q4'12 GE 30 month tenor
OCGT - JV with GE
T
U
R
K
E
Y
S
Y
R
I
A
I
R
A
Q
J
O
R
D
A
N
A
L
G
E
R
I
A
2011 2012 2013 2014

Electricity consumption in
MENA is up to 10x below
that of developed markets
Strongly Positioned in Strongly Growing Markets
Metka is expanding rapidly in the MENA region with projects in 5 countries (Syria,
Turkey, Jordan, Algeria and Iraq). During Q1‟13, revenues from international activities
comprised 86% of total sales of the EPC activity and these were mostly coming from
the MENA region.
Backlog / Sales
Source: Metka, Euroxx Research / FY’13e Backlog to stand at c€1.8bn (not including Syria or Iraq II)
Metka is currently targeting at two of the fastest growing and power thirsty emerging
markets - Algeria and Jordan. According to E&Y reports, electricity demand in these
markets is expected to show 2001-20 CAGR of 4-6%. There is an immediate and
urgent need for additional installed capacity, as the electricity supply per capita in
such countries is up to 10x below that of developed markets, such as Canada or
Norway as per the chart below.
Electric Energy Consumption per Capita
Source: World Factbook
2.1x
3.8x
6.2x
3.7x
1.7x
3.1x
2.9x
2.7x
2.9x
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
Millioneuros
BackLog
New Orders
Backlog / Sales
263.4
179.5
136.3 136.1
84.7
46
39.7 36.9
20.4 19.8
9.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Norway Canada USA Kuwait Germany Syria China Turkey Iraq Jordan Algeria
MWper100,000people
Elecricity Consumption per capita in MENA Region is up to
10x
below that of developed markets
Metka's Project Region

Strong correlation of MENA
GDP vs energy
consumption growth
GDP growth of 4-6% in
FY’13-15e in MENA
Emerging market
fundamentals drive
increase in energy projects
Capital costs c€900/kW for
OCGT plant construction
Global Gas-Fired Power Generation Set to See Strong Growth
The global economic cycle remains the key driver of energy projects. Energy demand
for the MENA region is highly correlated with GDP growth as shown in the figure
below.
Strong Correlation of MENA GDP vs Energy Consumption Growth
Source: International Monetary Fund
IMF‟s view is of a sustained but uneven global growth, led by strong emerging market
growth with sustained recoveries in the US and Europe. IMF expects Middle East and
Africa GDP to grow by c4%-6% in 2013-15e. This should lead to similar growth in
electricity demand.
Developed markets focus on infrastructure upgrading, replacing ageing plants and
improving efficiency. On the other hand, energy projects in developing economies are
driven by fundamentals such as population growth, high economic expansion
resulting in higher energy needs and energy self-sufficiency. MENA region turns
towards natural gas-fired plants due to the fact that the region accounts for c50% of
worldwide natural gas production and in addition, high oil prices have resulted in oil
reach MENA countries substituting their oil-fired with natural gas-fired plants.
According to IEA NEA (International Energy Association – Nuclear Energy Agency)
2010 Report, the investment costs of gas-fired plants are lower than coal-fired and
nuclear power plants. Gas-fired plants are built quicker and in most cases
expenditures are spread over two to three years. The Operation & Maintenance
(O&M) costs are also significantly lower. Capital costs, according to IEA,
are estimated around c€900/kW ±25%, while the annual O&M costs of CCGT and
OCGT plants are estimated at 4% of the investment costs per year. The generation
costs of CCGT range between €50 and €62/MWh (typically, €56/MWh), of which €23–
35/MWh is for the fuel. Generation costs of OCGT are much higher, e.g. €154–
173/MWh (typically, €161/MWh), of which €35–54/MWh is for the fuel. In the OCGT
plants, the fuel cost may be up to 50% higher than in CCGT as the efficiency is about
two-thirds that of a combined cycle.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
MENA GDP Growth
MENA Electricity Cons. Growth %
Strong correlation of MENA GDP
Growth to Electricity Consumption
Growth

Metka has an expertise on
the EPC of CCGT plants
Natural gas fired plant
capacity to grow by 100GW
per annum
126 gas power plants
commenced in FY’12 –
value of €66bn
World Capex for
CCGT/OCGTs is c€45bn
per year – >30% in MENA
region
Metka is well placed to
benefit from this boom
Both CCGT and OCGT plants use a mature technology that involves the generation
of electricity from gas turbines. CCGTs go a step further and use the waste heat from
each gas turbine, which then passes through a heat recovery steam generator to
raise steam, which in turn generates additional electricity from a steam turbine. No
major advances or technical changes are expected to affect the cost and performance
of this technology in the near future; however incremental improvements in efficiency
are expected to continue.
Breakdown of a CCGT Plant Capital Costs
Source: Black & Veatch – Cost Report 2012
According to Frost & Sullivan “Global Prospects for Gas-Fired Power Generation
2012 Report”, global gas-fired power plant orders will total 537GW through 2020,
concluding that the leading region for gas-fired power plant orders during the current
decade will be the Middle East. IEA‟s analysis on the other hand takes as its base
scenario that natural gas-fired plant capacity will grow at about c100GW per year for
the next decade.
EIC Data Stream (Energizing Your Business Data Stream – tracks 10,000 power
projects across the globe) currently reports a total of 481 gas power plants under
construction and a further 244 projects proposed for future development, which
together have a total potential investment value of nearly €416bn. In FY‟12, a total of
126 gas power projects commenced construction, potentially worth €66bn.
Throughout the year the level of both project activity and investment has remained
consistent, indicating a healthy, steady trend in new project developments.
On the assumption that the world average cost for CCGT plants is at c€0.9m per MW
(as per International Energy Agency ETSAP Report on Gas-Fired Plants) and a
conservative estimate of global gas-fired power plant orders of 50GW per year, this
would imply that the world capex spent for natural gas-fired technology would be at
least c€45bn per year, of which at least 30% of production could relate to the MENA
region and Turkey (in order to satisfy high demand needs). This number could prove
conservative, as it does not take into account plant replacement of old and inefficient
plants.
With Metka being active in an energy thirsty market, it looks well placed to benefit
from the expected capex boom in the MENA and Turkey region.

Largest natural gas
producer in Africa
FY’10-20 Investment Plan
€34m 6 mobile units
€167m 481MW turbines
€92m 368MW OCGT
Algeria – The New Favourite
Algeria, is the largest natural gas producer and second largest oil producer, after
Nigeria, in Africa. The country is heavily reliant on its hydrocarbon sector, which
accounts for c70% of government budget revenue and grants and c98% of exports
revenue in FY‟11, according to the IMF. According to ENPI 2010 Report (European
Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument), Algeria‟s total installed power capacity in
FY‟10 reached 11,352MW, with Combined Cycle units comprising c20% of total, or
2,052MW and the remainder being gas-fired installed capacity of 8,800MW.
The FY‟10-20 investment plan has been divided into two five-year sub-periods, for a
total additional capacity of around 10GW with a budget of €15bn; eight new power
plants of c5,000MW by 2015, and additional capacity of c4,500MW over the period
FY‟16–20. Looking beyond that, according to a European Commission MedPro 2011
report, natural gas installed electricity capacity in Algeria should reach 12,076MW in
FY‟15, 13,471MW in FY‟20 and 18,150MW in FY‟30.
Source: European Commission MedPro 2011
Metka Projects in Algeria – Total Budget: €295m
In FY‟12, Metka‟s Turkish subsidiary (Power Projects) in a JV with General Electric
completed a small €34m project in Algeria. The project involved the engineering,
procurement, installation and commissioning of 6 mobile gas turbine power
generating sets. The project was completed on a fast-track basis. On the back of the
above successful contract, Metka was awarded two further projects this year.
The first project was signed with Societe Algerienne de Production de l‟Electricite
SPE (which is part of Sonelgaz Group, the largest power producer in Algeria) for the
design, procurement, construction and commissioning of 24 wind turbines of
481.7MW. These units will be installed in two locations in Algeria. The total value of
the contract is €167m and will be implemented on an accelerated (fast-track) basis, in
order to enter into commercial operation in Q3‟13.
The latest contract award was through another JV with General Electric. It concerns a
€92m EPC contract with SPE to build an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) plant with a
capacity of 368MW at the country's physical gas hub Hassi R'mel. The 29.5 month
tenor contract was awarded by SPE. Hassi R'mel is Algeria's physical gas hub where
most of the country's gas production volume is centralized for onward delivery through
the GME pipeline via Morocco for export to Spain and the TransMed and Galsi
pipeline for export to Italy.
Installed Capacity - MW FY'10 FY'20 FY'30
Oil 239 396 405
Gas 10.858 13.471 18.150
Hydro 228 394 418
Renewables 28 4.821 2.002
Total 11.353 19.082 20.975

Installed capacity to
increase 60% by FY’20
Regional import grids in a
high risk neighborhood
Syrian refugees force
Jordan to increase capacity
€120m 143MW OCGT
€120m 146MW mobile unit
JV with Alstom
Jordan – Short & Long-Term Increased Capacity Needs
Despite a lack of domestic energy supplies, Jordan‟s electricity sector has
consistently expanded both its installed generation capacity (CAGR 7% FY‟02-12)
and peak load capacity in recent years to keep pace with growing demand (CAGR of
5% FY‟05-12). According to World Nuclear Association total installed electricity
capacity reached 3,100MW in FY‟12 and will need to reach c4,000MW by FY‟15,
5,000MW by FY‟20 and 8,000MW by FY‟30, when electricity consumption is expected
to double.
Jordan imports over 95% of its energy needs, at a cost of about one fifth of its GDP.
The kingdom‟s power stations have had to switch to pricier fuels such as diesel after
repeated interruptions in natural gas supplies caused by sabotage of the export
pipeline in neighboring Egypt. In 2009 Jordan generated 14.3bn kWh of electricity,
mostly from natural gas, and imported 0.4bn kWh for its six million people. In 2012,
due to gas supply constraints from Egypt, its electricity supply was generated by
imported natural gas (at 25%), 32% heavy fuel oil and diesel (32% each) and 11%
was imported.
Jordan has regional grid connection of 500MW with Egypt, 300MW with Syria, and it
is increasing grid connections with Israel and Palestine. This will increase energy
security and provide justification for larger CCGT units.
Last January, the Jordanian Government issued a response plan as a solution to
660,000 Syrian refugees that fled to Jordan. The Kingdom, found it necessary to
increase electricity generation capacity to cover additional demand through Samra
Electric Power Co. and this will be facilitated with new mobile plant installations
Metka Projects in Jordan – Total Budget: €202m
Metka won a €120m contract back in Q4‟12 to increase the capacity of Samra Electric
Power plant in Jordan by 143MW. The upgrade will be carried out within 28 months,
to enter commercial operation in 2015 and will bring the gas-fed station‟s total
generation capacity to 1,050MW by the addition of a combined cycle plant of Alstom
technology to the existing open cycle gas turbines. The project is financed by several
Arab funds.
Metka signed a second deal, in Q4‟12, of €120m to boost generating capacity at
Samra Electric Power in Jordan by 146MW. The project, set to be completed by
Q3‟13, will assist Samra Electric to meet expected power demand during the summer.
It‟s important to note that both projects are being completed in a JV with Alstom on
the equipment side.
We expect Metka to bid for more fast-track projects in the Jordan Kingdom.

Peak demand of 14GW
Installed capacity of 9GW
Functioning capacity 5GW
Iraq – Demand is 3x the Functioning Capacity
Chronic power shortages, businesses being hamstrung and factories running only a
few hours a day exacerbate the already highly challenging region. The Iraqi
government has made a series of notable attempts to engage the private sector to
address this challenge. In July FY‟11 the peak demand was reportedly over 14GW,
while Iraq‟s installed generation capacity was estimated to be c9GW, with functioning
capacity less than 5GW.
Installed Capacity vs Peak Capacity
Source: EIA – Iraq Energy Outlook
Natural gas, as per EIA Report, will become a major pillar of the domestic energy
production, as gas demand increases by around 10% per year on average. Natural
gas accounts for around half of all energy demand growth in Iraq, with its share of
Iraq‟s primary energy mix growing from less than 20% in 2010 to more than 40% in
2035.
Iraq total primary energy demand by fuel
Source: EIA – Iraq Energy Outlook

Forecasted demand to
almost triple within 20 years
€275m 1,251MW OCGT
funded by the Japanese
ICA
€800m 1,642MW CCGT
According to Iraq Energy Outlook and Iraq Ministry of Electricity in order to satisfy the
projected energy demand over the next 20 years, Iraq will need to invest more than
€42bn in its power sector, €22bn of which would be in generation alone.
Forecasted Demand for Electricity
Source: Iraq Ministry of Electricity, Euroxx Research
Metka Projects in Iraq – Total Budget: €275m (€1.07bn if latest awarded contract is
finalized)
In Q4‟11 Metka was awarded a 1251MW thermal power plant in Iraq. The Shat-Al-
Basra power plant project covers energy needs in Basra (South Iraq) and involved the
engineering, installation and commissioning of an OCGT power plant, with General
Electric‟s 10 dual-fuel gas turbines technology, that would triple the current capacity.
Metka‟s budget is €275m and the project has a tenor of 24 months. The power plant
is being funded by the Japanese International Cooperation Authority, as part of a $5
billion aid package that Japan pledged to Iraq in 2003.
In the latest contract awards, Iraq's cabinet approved (but not signed yet) a €800m
contract in Q2‟13 for a CCGT plant in western Iraq. The 1,642MW power plant, to be
built in western Anbar province, includes four gas units combined with two steam
units. Metka should procure and construct the power plant within 32 months. Metka
has publicly said that it is in talks with SEPCO III (Chinese state construction
company) on the possibility of a JV. This is so that it is not overexposed and
overstretched to Iraq.
Security - The security situation has been, and will continue to be, crucial to the
development of Iraq‟s energy sector. According to IEA the number of security
incidents in Iraq has declined markedly in recent years but the risk of violence
remains an important concern for companies working in the energy sector,
necessitating close attention and considerable expense. The security risks are by no
means uniform across Iraq, with the number of incidents in Metka‟s key province of
Basra being lower than in and around the capital.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Power (GW)

Turkey has doubled its
installed power generating
capacity in the last decade
Turkey aims to 100GW
installed capacity by
doubling budget to €95bn.
Liberalizing the energy
market
€490m 775MW CCGT
€475m 875MW Plant
Backlog opportunities for
Metka
Turkey is still in focus
Turkey – Doubling Budget to Double Energy Capacity
Electricity generation in the last decade increased with a CAGR of 5%, while peak
demand and energy consumption followed similar patterns. To put this in context, this
compares with a world average of 2.8%. According to the Turkish Electricity
Transmission Corporation (TETC), Turkey has nearly doubled its installed power
generating capacity in the last decade to support its growing economy. The country
has added 25,000MW of generation capacity to its installed power since 2002,
reaching a total of 57,000MW at the end of FY‟12.
The TETC forecasts c6-7% CAGR in electricity production over FY‟11-18. There are
12GW-15GW of projects under construction of which 4GW are natural gas fired
projects. Vying to be among the Top-10 economies by FY‟23, the country aims to
have at least 100,000MW of installed capacity by doubling their original budget to
€95bn.
The Turkish government aims to liberalize the power market in order to be able to
finance the increasing energy needs. Currently, c60-70% of capacity installed is state
owned (Elektrik Üretim AS) with the rest of the market comprised by IPP players.
Metka Projects in Turkey – Total Budget: €965m of which 95% already executed
The German power company RWE signed an agreement to build a power plant in
Denizli, western Turkey, with its local joint venture partner Turcas in 2 phases in
Q4‟09. Metka is responsible for the construction and Germany‟s Siemens is
responsible for the supply of major components, including gas and steam turbines.
The plant is based on Siemens SGT5-4000F gas turbine technology, using a multi
shaft concept of 2-on-1 configuration of two gas turbines, two heat recovery boilers
and one steam turbine. The 775MW CCGT plant is near completion and the budget
stands at €490m. This was a major achievement for the company as it was the first
time it cooperated with RWE. The commercial operation of the plant is planned for
H1‟13.
Metka and Borasco, a subsidiary of Austrian power giant OMV, announced in Q2‟10
that they were commissioned to build a power plant in Samsun, on Turkey‟s Black
Sea coast. Due to its strategic location next to the Blue Stream Pipeline the power
plant will be able to enhance the security of supply for electrical power for the Turkish
energy market. The EPC for the 870MW power plant has a budget of €475m. Metka
is working with General Electric on the equipment procurement and installation. The
plant is due to be operational Q3‟13.
We believe that any immediate backlog replenishment in Turkey for Metka is likely to
come from existing clients such as RWE and OMV. RWE has commented that is
looking closely into more opportunities in the Turkish market. While we do not quantify
/ identify the specific backlog replenishment opportunities in Turkey, we believe Metka
will win more projects in the country and be able to sustain a consistent revenue
stream in Turkey. The right fundamentals are there: 1) high energy needs, 2) TAP
pipeline and the Arab natural gas pipeline, 3) Metka‟s close ties with the key turbine
suppliers of the region (GE, Siemens) and 4) Metka‟s relationship with international
utilities like OMV and RWE.
Although Nabucco pipeline (backed by OMV) was rejected for the Shah Deniz II
consortium (BP, Socar, Statoil, Total) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), Turkey is still
in focus for Metka as the Trans Anatolian Pipeline which is part of the chosen TAP will
pass through Turkey.

CAGR 7% energy demand
growth
12GW by FY’20 on €7bn
€673m 700MW CCGT
€687m 724MW CCGT
You can only do as much
as the situation on the
ground permits
Syria – To Remobilize When the Security Situation Allows It
Syria‟s energy demand grew on average c7% per annum in FY‟02-11. FY‟12 installed
capacity is estimated at 9GW, however available capacity is closer to c8GW. Syria
has been historically oil rich and therefore 43% of its installed capacity is oil fired,
38% gas fired and 20% hydro. Since 2007, Syrian available capacity has been
inadequate to cover peak demand and there are frequent power disruptions,
especially in the high temperature summer time.
According to the World Bank, peak demand and electricity consumption will almost
double by FY‟20 at an average rate of 5-6% per annum. This should be driven by
economic growth and high residential consumption. Syria also needs to retire 3GW of
old capacity. This entails that Syria will need an added capacity of at least 12GW to
be installed by 2020. The World Bank has estimated that the capacity expansion
could cost €7bn. Current installed capacity is fully owned by the state via the Public
Establishment for Electrical Generation and Transfer (PEEGT).
Metka Projects in Syria – Total Budget: €1.36bn (On hold due to political instability)
Metka in a joint bid with Ansaldo, was awarded, in Q3‟09, the €673m contract to build
a combined cycle power plant in Deir Ali, south of Damascus by the Public
Establishment for Electricity Generation and Transmission (PEEGT). The project
involves the construction of a 700MW natural gas fired power plant. The contract is
the largest of any Greek firm in Syria. The Metka/Ansaldo consortium was in
competition with a consortium by Siemens and Aste. Metka has a 100 percent stake
in the bid, while Ansaldo would supply the main equipment. The EPC tenor was 36
months.
Meka and Ansaldo Energia signed in Q4‟10 a contract with Syrian Arab Republic
Ministry of Electricity Public Establishment of Electricity for Generation and
Transmission (PEEGT) for a 724MW thermal power plant in Syria, Deir Azzour. The
project scope concerns the engineering, procurement, construction and
commissioning of a natural gas fired power plant. Metka acts as the consortium
leader with 76.5% (Ansaldo 23.5%). Commercial operation originally was within 40
months, but this has changed due to deterioration of political stability in the country.
Political Situation
The troubles in the country have hit headlines around the world, and as the violence
escalated, it was only a matter of time before the events would impact on Metka. The
700MW project got a few days within first firing of the gas turbine just before the
security situation in the Damascus area became too risky. Metka suspended most of
the site activity at the time. Since then, Metka has been looking at a way to remobilize
the site when the security situation allows it. Work for the second 724MW project has
not yet been started on site, although engineering and procurement has progressed
and financing is fully secured. "You can only do as much as the situation on the
ground permits" … is Metka‟s official guidance on Syria.

Metka in consolidation
mode over FY’12-15e
FY’13 - EPS to grow by 6%
Financial Forecasts – Outlook
We expect Metka to be in a consolidation mode for the next 2-3 years. For FY‟13, we
expect EPS of €1.45 per share, 6% higher than FY‟12 EPS of €1.37. We forecast that
this will remain roughly stable at €1.44-1.46 for FY‟14-15e.
For FY‟13e, we expect group sales to increase by c14% to €622m, driven by c23%
higher EPC sales. We expect group EBITDA margin to reach 17%. On an absolute
level, EBITDA is expected to reach to €105m.
EPC Sector: We expect EPC sales to increase to €562m (+17% y-o-y), driven by
completion of contracts in Q2‟13 (Jordan) and Q3‟13 (Turkey), despite a drop in
Q1‟13 sales. In our view, the key top line contributors should be both of the Jordan
projects and Algeria, as well as the completion of both of Turkey‟s projects. We
forecast EPC EBITDA margins after management fee to reach c17%.
EPC backlog in FY‟13 should end at c€1.8bn, following a 3-year average new project
wins of €650m. This is c20% higher yoy because we do expect further backlog
replenishment within the year. This would still imply a high backlog-to-sales of 3.5x
(vs historic of 3x)
Defense Sector: In H2‟13, we expect Metka to be able to extend its defense
contracts for Raytheon. We assume a total contribution of c€30m for FY‟13. We
forecast a project EBITDA margin of 30%, in line with the historic execution of such
margins. FY‟13 backlog should settle at c€30m.
Solid CAGR on Sales
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
Millioneuros
CAGR 14% FY'07-12
CAGR 3% FY'12-15e
FY'07-15e CAGR to reach 10%

FY’14-15e - EPS similar to
FY’13e levels
EBITDA margins remain
high
For FY‟14e-15e, we expect sales to drop by 3% to c€600m. We assume a c17%
EBITDA margin leading to a group EBITDA of c€102m (-3% from FY‟13e).
EPC Sector: We anticipate sales to drop by c3% to €546m, driven by a slower
backlog execution. We assume project margins of c17%. On an absolute level, this
implies a c3% yoy slowdown on EBITDA. EPC backlog to stabilize to €1.8bn. We
expect the backlog to sales ratio to normalize to 3x. For FY‟15e we expect the EPC
turnover to grow by c5% in FY‟15 to €570m. This should be driven primarily by the
Jordan project and a renewed backlog with international projects comprising c95% of
EPC sales. FY‟15 Backlog–to–sales is projected at 2.8x
Defense Sector: UAE and Taiwan government contracts are already being executed
and are expected to be renewed in FY‟13. Given the manageable backlog size and no
prior issues with the execution of defense projects we believe Metka should deliver
the projects as per contractual dates. We expect the year-end backlog to reach €30m.
We expect the last batch of the signed defense contracts to be delivered within FY‟15.
We include €30m backlog replenishment.
The record high FY‟11, acts as a positive “anchor” for Metka to keep growing. The
outcome of the new project in Iraq and a possible deal with SEPCO III, will certainly
increase sales further.
EBITDA Margin & Net Income
Metka‟s key characteristic that favourably distinguishes from the competition is the
high EBITDA margin it manages to maintain at c17% as of FY‟12. These hefty
margins are attributed to the business model of the group of fixed-cost project basis
and therefore a higher risk/reward profile. We note here that the current EPC
contracts feature an 18-20% EBITDA margin before management fees to Mytilineos.
18.4%
17.6% 17.9%
21.8%
16.1%
16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
NetIncome
EBITDA Margin

Sales landing above €600m
for the next 3 years
2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
Turnover 1,004 548 622 606 600
% y-o-y n.m. -45% 14% -3% -1%
EPC 938.4 480.4 592.5 576.4 600.3
Defence 18.7 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Infrastructure 1.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Subsidiary 45.6 51.4 30.0 30.0 0.0
Gross profit 186.4 113.3 133.6 130.3 129.0
19% 21% 21% 21% 22%
EBITDA 161.4 92.7 105.3 102.4 101.4
% y-o-y n.m. -43% 14% -3% -1%
EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9%
D&A (4.9) (4.7) (4.7) (4.7) (4.7)
EBIT 156.5 88.1 100.7 97.7 96.7
% y-o-y n.m. -44% 14% -3% -1%
EBIT Margin 15.6% 16.1% 16.2% 16.1% 16.1%
Profit before tax 148.8 86.0 102.7 102.7 101.7
Tax (32.4) (13.5) (26.2) (26.2) (25.9)
Profit after tax 116.3 72.4 76.5 76.5 75.8
Minority Interest (1.3) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0)
Net Profit 115.0 71.4 75.5 75.5 74.8
% y-o-y 32% -38% 6% 0% -1%
Adjusted EPS 2.21 1.37 1.45 1.45 1.44
% y-o-y n.m. -38% 6% 0% -1%
Gross Profit Margin

We expect higher margins
and absolute numbers than
Consensus
Net Cash to increase to
more than €200m
Consensus
Versus consensus estimates, our forecasts are 3-11% higher across-the-board for
FY‟13. Going forward, FY‟14 figures are 7-19% higher than consensus, while FY‟15
figures are slightly higher 1-6%.
Source: Bloomberg, Euroxx Research
Strong Balance Sheet
The working capital cycle for the group has been considerably increased from 84
days in FY‟10 to 184 days in FY‟12. We expect the operating cycle to decrease to 131
days and then stabilise at c130 days. This outflow is project related and we believe it
should reverse over FY‟13-15e.
Metka‟s key feature is its strong and unlevered balance sheet that always had limited
debt, due to the cash generative nature of its business and the limited capital
expenditure requirements. It has remained in a net cash position of €92.1m. In our
estimates, we assume reduced working capital pressures for FY‟13 leading the
company to a record high net cash position of over €200m.
Exx Cons vs. Cons Exx Cons vs. Cons Exx Cons vs. Cons
Sales 622 604 3% 606 567 7% 600 595 1%
EBITDA 105 100 5% 102 93 10% 101 100.8 1%
EBITDA Margin 17% 17% 17% 16% 17% 17%
Pre-Tax Profit 103 92 11% 103 86 19% 102 96.1 6%
Net Profit 75 69 9% 76 65 17% 75 70.7 6%
Net Profit Margin 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12%
DPS 0.49 0.44 12% 0.51 0.40 27% 0.58 0.5 15%
FY'13e FY'14e FY'15e
Exx vs. Cons (in €m)
WCR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
Days Stocks 28 15 14 7 17 25 23 23 23
Days Debtors 278 204 358 334 166 301 250 250 250
Days Creditors 146 85 271 257 122 142 142 143 143
Operating Cycle 159 133 101 84 61 184 131 130 130

7 years - €170m in
dividends
Solid Dividend Payout
Dividends / DPS
Metka has historically provided generous dividend payouts of >c30% and the group
has distributed more than €170m in dividends since 2005. On our estimates we
assume it will maintain such a dividend payout policy and we expect for FY‟13-15 to
distribute €0.49-€0.58 respectively per share – implying a DY of c5%.
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.35
0.2
0.2
0.75
0.25
0.49
0.51
0.58
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
€
Millioneuros
Dividend (€ millions)
DPS (inc. Cap. Ret.)
€170m
in Dividends since 2005

APPENDIX

Q1’13 Results Recap
The operating performance of the EPC division was softer given the significant delays
in two projects in Syria for Metka. In particular:
Sales reached €134m (-21.5% y-o-y)
EBITDA settled at €22.9m (-17.6% y-o-y)
EBITDA margin rose to 17.1% from 16.3% in Q1‟12
Net profit reached €16.4m (-31.6% y-o-y)
Metka‟s revenues were focused outside of Greece, with 86% of Q1‟13 revenues
abroad versus 82.4% a year ago. Algeria, the hitherto star performer for the quarter,
contributed 32% of Metka‟s revenues. The sector contributed 45.6% of the EBITDA in
Q1‟13 compared to 68% in Q1‟12.
Mytilineos Q1'13 results
(in €m) Q1'12 Q1'13 y-o-y
Sales 358.6 356.5 -0.6%
Gross profit 40.5 40.3 -0.7%
Gross margin 11.3% 11.3% -0.8%
EBITDA 40.9 50.2 22.6%
EBITDA margin 11.4% 14.1% 266.6%
EBIT 30.3 35.3 16.7%
EBIT margin 8.4% 9.9% 146.7%
Pre-tax profit 21.6 22.2 3.0%
Tax 0.1 -3.5 n.m.
effective tax rate n.m. -15.9%
Results from disc. op. 0.4 -0.2 n.m
Profit/Loss from disc. op. -2.0 -0.2
Minorities -9.8 -8.1 -17.4%
Net profit 10.0 10.4 4.6%
Net margin 2.8% 2.9% 14.5%
Source: Mytilineos, Euroxx Research
Metka Q1'13 results
(in €m) Q1'12 Q1'13 y-o-y
Sales 170.7 134.0 -21.5%
Gross profit 33.3 27.7 -16.9%
Gross margin 19.5% 20.7% 113.8%
EBITDA 27.8 22.9 -17.6%
EBITDA margin 16.3% 17.1% 80.5%
EBIT 26.6 21.9 -17.7%
EBIT margin 15.6% 16.3% 75.0%
Pre-tax profit 24.4 19.4 -20.6%
Tax -0.7 -3.2 394.3%
effective tax rate -2.7% -16.6%
Minorities -0.2 -0.05 -76.7%
Net profit 23.525 16.097 -31.6%
Net margin 13.8% 12.0% -176.8%

Diversified group – Metka
at 37% of sales and 45% of
EBITDA
Group Profile – Mytilineos
Metka is a 54% owned subsidiary of Mytilineos Group which was established in 1990.
Its main business sectors include EPC works, metallurgy and mining and energy, with
considerable international activity. The company is also listed in the Athens Stock
Exchange with a market cap of €539m. In 2012 it had turnover of €1,45bn, EBITDA of
€170m and net profit of €21.7m. Metka accounted for xx% of its turnover and
EBITDA.
Beyond Metka, the Mytilineos Group is active in the following sectors:
Metallurgy & Mining – In 2005, it acquired Aluminion of Greece (AoG) with an
average annual production capacity of 170,000 tons of aluminium and 800,000 tons of
alumina. AoG is the largest vertically integrated alumina and aluminium producer in
Europe. Furthermore, its subsidiary Delphi-Distomon is the second largest bauxite
producer in Europe with an annual production of 650,000 tons.
Energy (Protergia) – The energy sector grew rapidly in the last few years. The group
manages energy assets of 1,200MW from thermal plants and 50MW from renewable
sources. 2012 was a significant year for the energy sector, as it was the first year in
which all thermal plants were in full operation, bringing sales on par with the EPC and
Mining & Metallurgy sectors. It also has a JV with Motor Oil called M&M Gas that
supplies and trades natural gas and it was the first company in Greece to import
private LNG cargo.
Mytilineos Group Sales Breakdown - FY’12
Mytilineos Group‟s released a strong Q1‟13 set of results. Despite a generally tough
economic environment and high finance costs, results were significantly improved at
the EBITDA and bottom-line levels. In particular, sales reached €356.5m, on par with
Q1‟12. EBITDA settled at €50.2m (+22.6% y-o-y) with the EBITDA margin growing to
14.1% from 11.4% in Q1‟12. Net profit reached €10.4m increased by 4.6% y-o-y.
Energy sector sales increased by 47.8% y-o-y to €113.9m and on the EBITDA level,
the sector contributed 43% of total.
EPC Sector
37%
Metallurgy &
Mining
31%
Energy
32%

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification
The analyst identified on the front page of this report and the Head of Research (Certified Analyst) certify that the written views about each
company and security they cover reflects only their personal opinions and estimates and their compensation are not linked to any investment
banking services provided by Euroxx.
Risks and sensitivity
The views and recommendations for all the companies that Euroxx Securities covers or refers to in the daily report have various levels of risk
depending on company, industry and market events. Furthermore, our estimates for each company we cover are affected by various factors such
as interest rates, inflation, local economic environment, market volatility, currency, management continuity or other company specific events.
Investors should be informed that the investment strategies discussed or recommended in these reports may not be realised and each company
may fail to reach its targets or the analyst‟s targets.
Recommendation System
Our recommendation system is based on the unbiased personal views of our analysts. The target prices have a time horizon of one year. Euroxx
Securities S.A. aims in updating the covered companies on any new future material that may lead to a different recommendation but does not
have a regular policy to update reports
Investment recommendations are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation or review of coverage. Furthermore, the
aforementioned ratings and target prices are subject to constant changes. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any
action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. Euroxx Securities S.A. and its employees are neither liable for the proper and complete
transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Euroxx Securities S.A. and its employees do not guarantee the accuracy of the
research reports or daily report, while they are not responsible for any possible errors or omissions.
Under no circumstances Euroxx suggests any buying or selling activity through this document. In producing its research reports, Euroxx Securities
SA research departments may have received assistance from the subject company such as access to the company‟s sites, visits to certain
operations of the subject company, meetings with management or employees and the handing by them of historical data regarding the subject
company, as well as of all the publicly available information regarding strategy and financial targets.
Other Important Regulatory Disclosures
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Euroxx Securities S.A., which is member of the Athens Exchange S.A. and regulated
by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. There is a separate location of analysts from Investment Banking, Capital Markets and Sales and
Trading employees and research reports are produced away from them. The communication between the Research Department and the other
departments of Euroxx Securities S.A. is restricted between the different departments. Note that "EUROXX Securities S.A. is regulated in Greece
by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, License No. 45/23.06.95/3”.
Valuation Method
We have valued Metka through a DCF-based valuation model. In our valuation model, we have used a WACC of 12.4% based on a beta of 0.73x,
a risk-free rate of 1.77% and a risk premium of 15.5%. For the calculation of the terminal value, we have assumed a perpetuity growth rate of 2%.
Disclosure checklist for companies mentioned in this report
1. As of the aforementioned date, Euroxx Securities S.A. does not own 5% or more of any common equity securities.
2. As of the aforementioned date, no listed companies own 5% or more of a class of common equity securities of Euroxx Securities S.A.
3. Euroxx Securities S.A. does not act as a market maker for any listed company.
4. Euroxx Securities S.A. has made underwriting for the prior 12 months of the aforementioned date for the stock GPSB.
5. Within the last 12 months, Euroxx Securities S.A. did not have a contractual relationship or has not received compensation for financial
advisory services from any listed company, except Postal Savings Bank
6. Euroxx Securities S.A. has not sent the research report to the company prior to publication for factual verification.
7. Following 6, Euroxx Securities S.A. has not changed the contents of the initially sent research report.
8. Euroxx Securities S.A. has not received compensation from the company for the preparation of this research report.
Rating Explanation
Coverage Universe (#) in
the last quarter
Coverage
Universe (%)
% Companies covered that are
investment banking clients
Overweight Expected total return >10% 4 17% 0%
Equalweight Expected total return betw een -10% and +10% 5 21% 0%
Underweight Expected total return < -10% 0 0% 0%
Under Review Recommendation and Target Price are subject to revision 15 63% 0%
*The target price and rating have a time horizon of one year

Rating History
Research
Manos Giakoumis +30-210-6879322 giakoumis@euroxx.gr
Maria Kanellopoulou +30-210-6879363 kanellopoulou@euroxx.gr
Yiannis Sinapis +30-210-6879353 sinapis@euroxx.gr
Tolis Paschalis +30-210-6879492 paschalis@euroxx.gr
Fotis Zeritis +30-210-6879486 zeritis@euroxx.gr
Sales
George Polites +30-210-6879520 gpolites@euroxx.gr
Ilias Dimitros +30-210-6879485 dimitros@euroxx.gr
Danai Filioti +30-210-6879482 filioti@euroxx.gr
George Lymberopoulos +30-210-6879494 lymberopoulos@euroxx.gr
Christina Papakastrisiou +30-210-6879480 papakastrisiou@euroxx.gr
Euroxx Securities S.A
7 Paleologou Str.
15232, Athens
www.euroxx.gr
Date Rating Share Price Target Price
30/3/2009 Overw eight 6.02 8.90
1/6/2009 Overw eight 8.30 10.40
12/8/2009 Overw eight 8.20 10.00
30/10/2009 Overw eight 10.30 12.40
17/11/2009 Overw eight 10.75 13.00
11/1/2010 Overw eight 9.96 13.25
5/8/2010 Under Review 9.58 U/R
21/12/2010 Overw eight 9.25 13.40
16/9/2011 Overw eight 5.88 11.00
8/5/2013 Under Review 11.80 U/R
3/6/2013 Overw eight 10.37 13.30
1/7/2013 Overw eight 9.90 13.30

Metka - Resume of Coverage [Euroxx]

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